We have an appetizing nine-game slate to work with, which means there is plenty of value to comb through in the player prop market.
Let's break down a few of my favorite shot totals.
Mathew Barzal over 2.5 shots (-112)
Most star offensive players generate more shots on home soil, where they generally benefit from last change and softer matchups. Mathew Barzal has served as an exception to the rule.
He is averaging just 2.1 shots per game at home this season and has gone over 2.5 shots just six times in 20 tries (30%). By comparison, Barzal has generated 2.9 shots per game on the road while hitting his total in 11 of 19 tries (58%) - including eight of the last 11.
Barzal is consistently generating high volume on the road and I don't see that changing against the Buffalo Sabres. Put simply, they are a defensive disaster, giving up shots and chances in bulk regardless of the opponent.
In fact, no team has conceded more shots on goal than the Sabres (372) over the last 10 games. Look for Barzal to have another productive shooting night.
He piled up 11 shots through just three games while going over his shot total in each contest, and he's put together successful nights against Eastern Conference contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins.
While the New York Rangers are a strong team overall - they have a lethal power play and Igor Shesterkin is arguably the game's best goaltender right now - they do have flaws. For example, they give up a ton of shot volume. Only Ottawa has conceded shot attempts at a higher clip this season.
Smith is a shoot-first player seeing more ice time in an advantageous matchup. With Bergeron and Marchand still out of the lineup, I expect he'll take advantage.
Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 shots (-139)
Jordan Kyrou is the man right now. He leads the St. Louis Blues in shot attempts, shots on goal, and scoring chances over the last 10 games. That has translated to success on the prop market, as he's gone over 2.5 shots on six of the last nine games.
I like Kyrou's chances of making it seven in 10 on Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators. They are a feisty, competitive team, but they can only do so much with Josh Norris and Drake Batherson out of the lineup. The Senators just can't control the puck or prevent shots as well without two of their best players.
That shows in the numbers: Ottawa sits 27th in shots against per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games.
Both sides have consistently played fast-paced, high-event games. There should be plenty of shots to go around, and I expect Kyrou will get his fair share.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Many mocked the Arizona Coyotes when news broke of the vagabond franchise sharing a 5,000-seat rink with Arizona State for at least the next three seasons, but the club is confident the idea is crazy enough to work.
"All I can say to those players who have concerns is: I understand it. Because they’re hearing from the outside that, 'This is a college arena,' and 'It's so small,' and 'Do these guys really have a plan?' I can tell you, this is a plan, we have it, and we’re willing to put our capital behind it," Coyotes president and CEO Xavier Gutierrez told Craig Morgan of PHNX Sports.
"This is a brand-new facility. This isn't putting lipstick on a pig. This is a state-of-the-art, brand-new facility. We are putting in over $25 million to make it to NHL standard."
Morgan provided an idea of how the rink, which is still under construction, will look Monday:
"We are very hopeful that - given the central location, given this rabid fan base, this rabid corporate base, and so many community partners who have asked us to look at much more centrally located options - that the demand is there," Gutierrez said.
"This is a hockey town. We’ve said this from the beginning: What we've needed is an arena solution in order to really super-serve that demand and that fan base and that fan-base-in-waiting."
The Coyotes were forced to find a new home after the city of Glendale ended its lease agreement for use of Gila River Arena. The club is still awaiting approval for the bid on a new permanent rink in Tempe it filed in September.
It took one week after the All-Star break to make bettors feel better about the NHL. With COVID-19 testing relaxed, rosters have become more reliable on a nightly basis. That's created more valuable bets on underdogs and favorites alike, but it's the big 'dogs that have made the last week the most interesting.
Following our moneyline guide last week would have given you a 9-11 record with the 20 teams that showed value. Though that's not a winning record on the scoreboard, the betting account is all that matters. With wins on the Blue Jackets (+210 at Capitals), Senators (+200 vs. Hurricanes), Devils (+220 at Blues), and Canucks (+175 vs. Maple Leafs), our underdog payouts more than made up for the sub-.500 record, pushing us over five units into the black.
The recipe
Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.
When the NHL halted play around Christmas, we shared my 2021-22 season ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. In light of all the lineup inconsistency across the league this season, we held firm for the next six weeks, using a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets.
Since the NHL adjusted its COVID-19 testing policies after the All-Star Game, we've moved to a 60-40 split. We're slowly putting more emphasis on team metrics for this season without going all-in on what's happened, given how many teams have played games with severely mismatched roster strength. With the regular-season calendar stretched until the end of April, we'll maintain that ratio for now.
The cheat sheet
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.
With more than half of the regular season's games in the books, we'll provide this guide twice per week to highlight where the value lies in NHL moneylines. Here's a weeknight look at games played Monday-Thursday this week:
DATE
GAME
TRUE ML
PRICE TO BET
Feb. 14
DET@MIN
+165/-165
DET +197/MIN -159
TOR@SEA
-130/+130
TOR -125/SEA +153
CHI@WPG
+122/-122
CHI +144/WPG -117
EDM@SJS
-125/+125
EDM -120/SJS +147
Feb. 15
BOS@NYR
+101/-101
BOS +111/NYR +110
STL@OTT
-110/+110
STL -105/OTT +129
NYI@BUF
-120/+120
NYI -115/BUF +141
TBL@NJD
-117/+117
TBL -112/NJD +138
PHI@PIT
+160/-160
PHI +190/PIT -153
WSH@NSH
-109/+109
WSH +102/NSH +120
DAL@COL
+146/-146
DAL +173/COL -140
CBJ@CGY
+154/-154
CBJ +183/CGY -148
EDM@LAK
+121/-121
EDM +142/LAK -116
Feb. 16
MIN@WPG
-118/+118
MIN -114/WPG +139
FLA@CAR
-117/+117
FLA -112/CAR +137
ANA@CGY
+154/-154
ANA +182/CGY -147
COL@VGK
+124/-124
COL +146/VGK -119
Feb. 17
STL@MTL
-127/+127
STL -122/MTL +150
OTT@BUF
+132/-132
OTT +155/BUF -126
PIT@TOR
+124/-124
PIT +146/TOR -119
WSH@PHI
-117/+117
WSH -113/PHI +138
DET@NYR
+146/-146
DET +173/NYR -140
BOS@NYI
+101/-101
BOS +111/NYI -110
SEA@WPG
+114/-114
SEA +134/WPG -109
CBJ@CHI
+124/-124
CBJ +146/CHI -119
ANA@EDM
+230/-230
ANA +280/EDM -219
VAN@SJS
+108/-108
VAN +120/SJS +102
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
Eichel will play Wednesday when the Golden Knights take on the Colorado Avalanche, general manager Kelly McCrimmon announced Monday.
In a corresponding move, Vegas placed captain Mark Stone on long term injured reserve. Stone has been battling a recurring back injury and was held out of the lineup last Wednesday against the Calgary Flames.
McCrimmon said Stone has seen six specialists about the lingering issue, according to NHL.com's Tom Gulitti.
"Our number one priority is Mark Stone’s health. It’s clearly not in a place where it needs to be for him to be successful," McCrimmon said.
"It’s not in a place it needs to be for our team. He’s our captain. The man wears his heart on his sleeve every time he puts on our uniform."
McCrimmon added that Eichel has been "well worth" the wait.
Eichel's season debut comes just over three months since Vegas acquired the superstar center in a blockbuster deal with the Buffalo Sabres. The 25-year-old hasn't played in an NHL game since last March. He missed the remainder of the 2020-21 campaign due to a herniated disc in his neck.
After a contentious breakup with the Sabres, the Golden Knights gave Eichel the go-ahead to receive his preferred surgery to address the issue. He underwent artificial disk replacement surgery shortly after Vegas acquired him and he's spent the last few months covering from the procedure.
Eichel slotted in as the Knights' No. 1 center on Monday, just one week after he participated in a full-contact practice for the first time. He'd been skating with his new Vegas teammates since Jan. 11, but the Knights previously held him out of contact drills.
Placing Stone and his $9.5 million cap hit on long-term injured reserve will help alleviate the Golden Knights' cap crunch with Eichel's debut looming, according to CapFriendly.
Eichel has 139 goals and 216 assists in 375 career NHL games. The dynamic forward spent the first six seasons of his career with the Sabres, who selected him second overall in the 2015 draft.
Stone, meanwhile, has eight goals and 20 assists in 28 games this campaign.
The fifth-round selection included in the deal is a 2024 pick, per The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun, while the 2022 first-round pick is top-10 protected, according to Friedman.
Toffoli has been a bright spot for the struggling Habs this season with nine goals and 17 assists in 37 games. He led all Canadiens skaters with 44 points in 2020-21 and was a key player during their run to the Stanley Cup Final.
He has two more seasons remaining on his deal which carries a $4.25-million cap hit. He signed the four-year pact with the Canadiens in 2020 as a free agent.
The Ontario government announced Monday it will speed up the province's reopening timeline, according to CityNews' Michael Ranger.
The NHL's Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators, as well as the NBA's Toronto Raptors, will be able to increase to 50% capacity beginning Feb. 17, and if public health indicators keep trending in the right direction, they can host full houses on March 1.
The initial plan, which the province unveiled in late January, was to allow a maximum of 500 spectators at indoor sporting venues in Ontario from Jan. 31 to Feb. 20 before moving to 50% capacity starting on Feb. 21. The government was then aiming to lift all capacity limits on March 14.
The province will also forgo its proof of vaccination requirement on March 1, but businesses and other settings can still choose to enforce it.
The Leafs will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins on Feb. 17 and could potentially face the Buffalo Sabres in front of a packed barn on March 2.
The Senators will play four games at 50% capacity beginning Feb. 19 against the Boston Bruins. Ottawa can return from a five-game road trip to a full Canadian Tire Centre on March 10 against the Seattle Kraken.
The Raptors won't play for a half-capacity crowd, but they may return to action in front of a full house when they host the Brooklyn Nets on March 1.
The Winnipeg Jets announced last week that they would return to full-capacity crowds beginning Wednesday.
This is the 10th edition of theScore's NHL Power Rankings for the 2021-22 campaign. Check back for updated rankings every second Monday during the regular season.
In this edition, we highlight one player from each of the league's 32 clubs who need to be better in the unofficial second half.
1. Colorado Avalanche (34-8-4)
Previous rank: 1st
Colorado doesn't need to change a thing, but for the sake of this exercise, we'll spotlight Tyson Jost, who's posted a modest 13 points across 46 games. Surely the Avalanche had higher expectations when drafting the 23-year-old 10th overall in 2016.
2. Florida Panthers (32-10-5)
Previous rank: 2nd
Spencer Knight was a popular Calder Trophy pick, but he's recorded a .898 save percentage this season. If he can perform better down the stretch, it'll allow the Panthers to manage Sergei Bobrovsky's workload ahead of the playoffs.
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (31-11-6)
Previous rank: 4th
You have little to worry about if your backup goalie is the biggest issue as a team. Still, the Lightning likely want to see more than a .902 save percentage from Brian Elliott in his spot starts down the stretch.
4. Minnesota Wild (29-11-3)
Previous rank: 6th
Jordan Greenway signed a three-year, $9-million extension in January but only has four goals this season. If he gets going, Minnesota's attack might become unstoppable.
5. Carolina Hurricanes (32-11-3)
Gregg Forwerck / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 3rd
The Hurricanes have a reputation as a strong defensive team, but they've posted the ninth-worst expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five this campaign. The "shutdown" pairing of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce both rank near the bottom of the league in xGA/60, so we're going with both players.
6. Pittsburgh Penguins (30-11-8)
Previous rank: 5th
Entering the 2021-22 campaign, the Penguins voiced their belief in goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith. Jarry has rebounded from last season's frightful playoff performance, but he'll need more support from his running mate. DeSmith has managed four wins in 11 appearances so far and has scraped by with a .901 save percentage.
7. Toronto Maple Leafs (30-12-3)
Previous rank: 7th
Time is undefeated, and it seems to have caught up to 32-year-old defenseman Jake Muzzin this campaign. The Leafs fail to control over 50% of the shot attempts, scoring chances, and high-danger goals with the veteran on the ice in all situations. Toronto needs more from Muzzin down the stretch.
8. Calgary Flames (26-13-6)
Previous rank: 13th
Sean Monahan is just 27 years old, but instead of being in the prime of his career, he seems to be a shell of his former self. The three-time 30-goal scorer has been demoted to a bottom-six role and has just seven goals in 45 games. The Flames would benefit greatly if he regained his offensive touch.
9. New York Rangers (30-13-4)
Previous rank: 8th
We'll bend the rules here and pick two players: Kaapo Kakko and Alexis Lafreniere. Both highly-touted youngsters have massively disappointed early in their careers, and the Rangers could use the secondary scoring.
10. Vegas Golden Knights (28-17-3)
Jeff Bottari / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 11th
Robin Lehner's .907 save percentage would mark his worst since 2014-15 when he was with the Ottawa Senators. With Marc-Andre Fleury gone, there's no fallback option. Lehner needs to be "the guy" for Vegas to have another deep playoff run.
11. Boston Bruins (27-16-3)
Previous rank: 9th
Injuries have significantly set back Nick Foligno over the past year, but he's still managed to play 29 games this season. The veteran forward has only one goal and six assists in those appearances.
12. St. Louis Blues (27-14-5)
Previous rank: 10th
Ville Husso has been a vision for the Blues this campaign, and his surprise emergence softens the fact that Jordan Binnington is struggling. Binnington has authored a .898 save percentage across 24 appearances this campaign, but he has time to turn things around before the playoffs.
13. Washington Capitals (26-15-9)
Previous rank: 12th
The Capitals' power play is operating at just a 15.5% clip this season, ranking 28th in the league. Defenseman John Carlson is typically one of the biggest keys to Washington's success on the man advantage, so he'll have to step up to help the floundering unit find its legs again.
14. Nashville Predators (28-16-4)
Previous rank: 14th
Eeli Tolvanen was commonly viewed as one of the world's top prospects a few years ago, but he hasn't found his footing. The 2017 first-round pick has only seven goals in 45 games in his second season as a Predators regular.
15. Edmonton Oilers (24-18-3)
Icon Sportswire / Icon Sportswire / Getty
Previous rank: 15th
The Oilers have given up 3.27 goals per game this campaign, putting them among the bottom-10 teams in the league. Injuries have hampered Mike Smith's season, but hopefully, the 39-year-old can step up and give Edmonton more stability to ease the load on the struggling Mikko Koskinen and Stuart Skinner.
16. Los Angeles Kings (24-16-7)
Previous rank: 17th
The Kings are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race, and they'll need more from former captain Dustin Brown if they want to qualify. The 37-year-old is operating at a 0.45 points-per-game clip, his lowest mark since 2015-16.
17. Dallas Stars (25-19-2)
Previous rank: 18th
The Stars need more out of Alexander Radulov if they hope to make a run at the postseason. The 35-year-old has just two goals in 40 contests this campaign while sporting a $6.25-million cap hit.
18. Anaheim Ducks (23-17-9)
Previous rank: 16th
Jakob Silfverberg is the Ducks' third-highest paid skater, but he's scored just three times in 43 games this season. He's signed for two more years, too.
19. Vancouver Canucks (22-21-6)
Previous rank: 20th
Elias Pettersson is starting to heat up with 10 points in his last 12 contests. The Canucks need him, at the very least, to stay on that pace for the second half if they hope to have a chance at the playoffs. Even if they don't reach the postseason, Pettersson's growth is crucial to Vancouver's future.
20. Winnipeg Jets (20-17-8)
Christopher Mast / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 21st
Captain Blake Wheeler had two goals heading into the Jets' Saturday night clash against the Predators. Just two. He doubled his season output thanks to a five-point showing against Nashville. Fingers crossed for Winnipeg that he continues to light the lamp.
21. Columbus Blue Jackets (23-22-1)
Previous rank: 25th
The Blue Jackets will need goaltender Joonas Korpisalo to do better than a .887 save percentage if they want to get anything of value at the trade deadline for the pending unrestricted free agent.
22. San Jose Sharks (22-20-4)
Previous rank: 22nd
Adin Hill has likely played his way out of getting any important starts down the stretch. However, the Sharks probably want to see some signs that the netminder can be relied on after giving up a second-round pick for him in the offseason. In 24 games, Hill owns a .901 save percentage and minus-5.0 goals saved above average.
23. Detroit Red Wings (22-21-6)
Previous rank: 23rd
Filip Zadina needs a strong second half heading into the offseason. The 2018 sixth overall pick has tallied just six goals and nine assists in 47 contests this season.
24. New York Islanders (17-19-6)
Previous rank: 19th
Just about every Islanders forward needs to play better for the club to make a miracle run to the postseason, but Jean-Gabriel Pageau, in particular, needs to put together a second-half surge. The veteran center, who's on the books for $5 million per season, has only 14 points in 40 contests this campaign.
25. Ottawa Senators (17-24-4)
Steve Babineau / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 27th
Erik Brannstrom was the centerpiece of the Mark Stone trade, but he's yet to blossom as an NHLer. He's only recorded a pair of assists in 16 games this season. While points aren't everything for defensemen, some second-half production would be huge for his confidence.
26. Chicago Blackhawks (17-24-7)
Previous rank: 24th
Jake McCabe is in the first season of a four-year, $16-million contract, but his expected goals percentage is the second-worst among qualified defensemen this campaign.
27. Seattle Kraken (16-28-4)
Previous rank: 26th
The Kraken invested heavily in Philipp Grubauer, but the veteran netminder has struggled to the tune of a .887 save percentage. He's played better lately, but Seattle needs him to enter the offseason on a high note considering he's signed for five more years.
28. Buffalo Sabres (15-24-8)
Previous rank: 28th
Anders Bjork was a key piece to the Taylor Hall trade last season, but he hasn't done much to show his long-term worth to the Sabres. Perhaps a strong second half will increase his value in the eyes of Buffalo's front office, and it shouldn't be hard to out-produce the six points he's registered in 42 games thus far.
29. New Jersey Devils (17-27-5)
Previous rank: 29th
The Devils are amid another season falling short of heightened expectations. Signing Tomas Tatar this past summer was a big piece of the puzzle, but he's only delivered 19 points in 46 games. He can prove his worth by finishing strong.
30. Philadelphia Flyers (15-24-8)
Len Redkoles / National Hockey League / Getty
Previous rank: 30th
If Rasmus Ristolainen elevates his play ahead of the trade deadline, then perhaps the Flyers can fetch a return that comes close to resembling the one they gave up to acquire him this past offseason.
31. Arizona Coyotes (12-32-4)
Previous rank: 31st
Jakob Chychrun is arguably having his worst NHL season. The 2021-22 season performances come a year after he broke out and finished 10th in Norris Trophy voting. The better Chychrun plays, the more the Coyotes will get in a trade for their top defenseman, whether that be before the trade deadline or in the offseason.
32. Montreal Canadiens (8-33-7)
Previous rank: 32nd
Jeff Petry is having one of the worst seasons of his NHL career. He also drew the ire of Canadiens fans after he didn't jump to the defense of goaltender Samuel Montembeault, who got bowled over during a contest against the Oilers. Petry may be on the market, but the longtime Canadien should look to end his Montreal tenure on a high.
