All posts by Todd Cordell

Trust Devils, Jets to rebound Monday night

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Headlined by another edition of the Hudson River rivalry, we have a fun four-game slate ahead of us to begin the week.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of sides worth backing.

Devils (+120) @ Rangers (-140)

The Devils have dropped plenty of games lately, but the process has been strong. They have routinely generated more shots and chances than their opponents only to be sunk by awful goaltending.

That shouldn't be as much of a problem moving forward with veterans Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen replacing youngsters Nico Daws and Akira Schmid. The newcomers aren't world-beaters but are certainly more experienced and reliable than what the Devils were putting out each night.

I think this is a good spot to buy low on the Devils. Timo Meier's re-emergence has raised the team's offensive ceiling, and the Rangers are vulnerable defensively right now.

The Rangers rank 32nd in shot suppression over the last 10 games. They also rank 30th in expected goals allowed, meaning this isn't a case of allowing quantity but keeping it to the outside; the quality looks have been there.

The Devils rank second in expected goals generation over the same period. Teams are having a difficult time preventing chances against them, and life will only be harder for the Rangers with Norris-winning defenseman Adam Fox and captain Jacob Trouba set to miss this game.

New York is also expected to start Jonathan Quick, who has cooled down of late, to preserve Igor Shesterkin for a big divisional clash against the Hurricanes.

Add it all up and there's real value in backing the Devils as healthy road underdogs.

Bet: Devils (+120)

Capitals (+175) @ Jets (-210)

The Jets have been excellent at responding to defeat. Since the beginning of December, there's only one stretch - a five-game skid at the end of January - where the Jets have lost multiple games consecutively.

There were eight other instances in that span where the Jets dropped a game and responded immediately with a win. Each win came within 60 minutes.

Winnipeg is coming off what head coach Rick Bowness called its worst game of his tenure. His veteran-laden team seems to respond every time Bowness pushes its buttons, and he's undoubtedly looking for that to happen again versus Washington.

The expectation is that deadline acquisitions Tyler Toffoli and Colin Miller will be available. Those two players should not only improve the squad's quality but breathe some life and excitement into the lineup.

The Jets will be a difficult team for the Capitals to compete with. The Caps have enjoyed plenty of success of late, but their last four wins have come against the Blackhawks, Penguins (no Jake Guentzel or Bryan Rust), Flyers (Samuel Ersson conceded five on 21 shots), and Senators (seven-game losing streak).

I don't think they're as good as they have looked of late. They've just taken advantage of a very weak point in the schedule.

Look for the well-balanced Jets to come out hungry after an ugly loss and take care of business within 60 minutes.

Bet: Jets in regulation (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Karlsson, Theodore to sting Blue Jackets on Monday

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We have a fun six-game slate on the docket to begin the week. Let's take a look at a few of my favorite props.

William Karlsson: Over 2.5 shots

The Golden Knights are dealing with key injuries up front, most notably to Mark Stone. As a result, Karlsson has a more important offensive role.

Karlsson has gone over his total in four of five games with his captain out of the lineup. And even as Jack Eichel returns, Karlsson should still have a prominent offensive role.

He's averaging 5.6 shot attempts per game without Stone, which is 1.3 attempts more per game than when Stone is in the lineup.

The Golden Knights face the Blue Jackets, who rank 28th in shots allowed over the last 10 games and 29th on the season. If you're into narratives, Karlsson may also have a little extra pep in his step facing his former team. Either way, this is a prime spot for him to make his mark offensively.

Odds: -125 (playable to -150)

Owen Tippett: Over 3.5 shots

Tippett is firing on all cylinders. The Flyers forward has gone over his total in seven of the past 10 games, recording at least five shots more times (five) than he's fallen short of his line (three).

All three of Tippett's failures came against teams that are currently playing strong defense, ranking top 12 in shot suppression over the past 10 games. He was a perfect 6-for-6 against teams outside the top 12, averaging a whopping 6.6 shots per game.

Tippett is set to face another such opponent in the visiting Blues, a defensively exploitable team that sits 27th in shot suppression over its last 10 games.

Since Tippett can pile up shots against weaker opponents, and the Blues don't have last change to send out their best personnel against him, this should be another big shooting night.

Odds: -134 (playable to -145)

Shea Theodore: Over 0.5 assists

Theodore is an assist machine. The Vegas defenseman recorded 14 assists over his last 10 games, picking up at least one in seven of those games.

He didn't get it done against the Stars, Penguins, and Sabres. The Stars are one of the best teams in the NHL, the Penguins (believe it or not) are top five in limiting goals against, and the Sabres have one of the league's hottest goaltenders in Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.

Theodore has feasted on weaker defensive sides, picking up a point - nearly all assists - in 73% of his games against the bottom 15 teams in limiting goals.

The Blue Jackets certainly fit the criteria. They're allowing 3.67 goals per game this season, putting them ahead of only the Sharks. And they aren't showing any signs of progress, having conceded 3.60 goals per game over the last 10.

This is a spot where Vegas should be able to produce offense. With Eichel and Stone sidelined, the team relies even more heavily on Theodore to help create. Expect him to get involved.

Odds: +105 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Wild to snap Predators’ winning streak Thursday

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We have a massive 12-game slate on the docket Thursday night. I see the most value in getting involved in a couple of games with playoff implications for both parties. Let's take a closer look.

Wild (+100) @ Predators (-120)

The Predators are riding a six-game winning streak, but it's the Wild who have been more impressive of late.

Minnesota has accumulated one more point over the past 10 games and posted a stronger underlying profile.

The Wild have posted the league's sixth-highest expected goals share at five-on-five during that span. They've also been lethal on the power play.

Only the Maple Leafs (13) have scored more power-play markers than the Wild (12) over the last 10 games. Conversely, just seven teams have conceded more power-play goals than the Predators in the same span. That figures to be a big advantage for the Wild.

Minnesota's top line of Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Kirill Kaprizov has been amazing at even strength while ripping teams apart on the man advantage.

It'll be a tough task for Juuse Saros to slam the door. He has performed better lately, but his recent success came against the Senators, Sharks, Blues, and Kings. Not exactly top-tier offenses.

I'm skeptical he can stay hot against the league's second-highest-scoring offense over the last 10.

Bet: Wild (+100)

Penguins (-105) @ Kraken (-115)

The Kraken are quietly playing strong hockey on home ice. They own a 6-2-2 record over the last 10 in Seattle and possess strong defensive metrics.

Seattle has conceded just 2.21 expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five in that span. The Kraken have fared even better in preventing goals, allowing 1.95 per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Terrific numbers.

The Penguins have largely struggled to score goals against strong defensive sides. Over the past 10 games, they scored two goals against the Wild, one against the Jets, two against the Panthers, and one against the Kings.

Aside from a shootout against the Flyers where Cal Petersen posted a .781 save percentage, the Penguins' best regulation performance against a strong team was a three-goal effort versus the Canucks.

Jake Guentzel being sidelined was problematic enough. With Bryan Rust also out with an injury, the Penguins have lost a ton of scoring on the wings. These absences will be tough to overcome as they were already top-heavy to begin with.

Seattle plays extremely low-event hockey at home. Kraken home games feature the lowest average shot volume (56.0) out of any team in the league.

I expect the Kraken will be able to tighten the screws on the Penguins, who lack the dynamic ability needed to break through structured defenses.

If Joey Daccord can continue to hold up his end of the bargain in goal, this is a spot where the Kraken should take care of business.

Bet: Kraken (-115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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McTavish, Zetterlund to fire away in San Jose

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We had our first losing night of the week on Wednesday, dropping two of our three props.

We'll look to get back on track with another three-pack for a monster slate of games Thursday night.

Andrei Svechnikov: Over 2.5 shots

The Blue Jackets are one of the worst shot-suppression teams in the NHL, sitting 30th on the year and 25th over the past 10 games. They should struggle again on Tuesday in a back-to-back situation against the Hurricanes, one of the league's most dominant possession teams.

Although Svechnikov's shot generation has been somewhat inconsistent this season, he's consistently exploited bottom-tier defenses. The forward has gone over his total 70% of the time against bottom eight shot suppression defenses and posted a 64% hit rate versus those in the bottom 10.

The Blue Jackets like to use their top line against the opposition's first unit, which should be music to Svechnikov's ears.

The trio of Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, and Jack Roslovic has struggled mightily in its own end, giving up nearly 38 shots on goal per 60 minutes at even strength. Shooting opportunities should come early and often for Svechnikov.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Mason McTavish: Over 2.5 shots

McTavish has seen an increase in ice time lately, logging at least 17 minutes in four straight games. That's become a sweet spot for McTavish. He's averaged 3.6 shots on 6.2 attempts in the last five games he's played 17 minutes or more.

He should see a similar workload on Thursday night. And McTavish has a strong history against the Sharks, recording at least three shots in three of the past four contests against San Jose.

The Sharks tend to play high-event games and fail to limit shots. They aren't showing much progress in that area, sitting 31st in five-on-five suppression over the last 10 outings.

McTavish has taken advantage of poor competition this season, recording at least three shots in eight of 12 games against teams in the bottom 10 in shot suppression.

Expect that trend to continue in San Jose.

Odds: -106 (playable to -130)

Fabian Zetterlund: Over 2.5 shots

Zetterlund is another player in a mouthwatering matchup on Thursday night. The Ducks have bled shots at five-on-five all season long and make frequent trips to the box. That's a disastrous recipe for suppressing shots.

The Ducks rank 28th in shots against per game this season and 30th over the last 10. They're giving up an especially high volume of shots to wingers, with only the Blackhawks conceding more in the past 10 games.

It's a dream scenario for Zetterlund, who's enjoyed a ton of success in such spots this season. He's averaging a healthy 3.45 shots per game against bottom-eight shot suppression teams and has gone over at a 64% clip, including both times he's faced Anaheim.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Werenski to exploit leaky Rangers defense on Wednesday night

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We're off to a strong start this week. Thanks to a 3-0 sweep with our player props, we put together a winning night on Monday. The script flipped with a mini-sweep on Tuesday's team bets, leading to a profitable 3-2 night.

Let's take a look at a few plays that stand out on Wednesday's slate as we look to keep the ball rolling.

Zach Werenski: Over 2.5 shots

The Rangers are leaking on the back end. They've allowed 34.83 shots per game over the last 10 contests, which falls just 0.04 behind the last-placed Sharks in that span. They give up a ton of volume every night.

This isn't just a difficult patch in the schedule. New York simply isn't defending well. Non-playoff teams like the Islanders, Devils, and Blue Jackets generated 40+ shots against the Rangers over the past two weeks.

Werenski took advantage of the Rangers' struggles the last time he saw them, firing four pucks on net.

The blue-liner is piling up the shots of late: Werenski's recorded three or more in seven of his past 10 games and averaged 3.5 shots on nearly seven attempts in that span. Those are very healthy outputs.

With Werenski in fine form offensively and the Rangers bleeding shots, this is a favorable spot for another active shooting performance from the defenseman.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Warren Foegele: Under 2.5 shots

Foegele recently had a cup of coffee riding shotgun with Connor McDavid, where he was very productive shooting the puck.

He's back on the third line but is still priced as if he's getting prime minutes at even strength. Including the games Foegele played on McDavid's line, he's averaging slightly less than 14 minutes of ice time over the last 10 outings. We generally expect him to fall in the 12-14 range.

Using that as a reference point, Foegele has cleared his shot total in only nine of 32 games when playing 14 minutes or less. That's a 28% hit rate.

He's averaged 3.6 shot attempts per game at such usage. That leaves little margin for error in terms of hitting the target. If Foegele misses the net or has one blocked, it's difficult for him to go over on any given night.

The matchup is scary - St. Louis isn't a good defensive team - but I'm happy to take my chances given Foegele's expected ice time.

Odds: -118 (playable to -130)

Robert Thomas: Over 0.5 points

I think the price on this line is rather egregious. Thomas has been one of the most consistent point producers in the NHL this season, finding the scoresheet in 70% of his games.

Using his success rate as a barometer, something in the ballpark of -230 would be a fair price for Thomas to get a point. Not all teams are equal - and the Oilers are quite good - but -140 is generous.

However, we've seen a dip in the Oilers' defensive play lately. They've given up shots at a higher clip than usual and Stuart Skinner's play has regressed. He's allowed at least three goals in six of his past seven starts.

There should be a couple of goals on the table for the Blues. Given how integral Thomas is to the offense - at five-on-five and on the power play - I like his chances of getting involved in one.

Odds: -140 (playable to -165)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Flames, Avalanche to take care of business at home

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We split our sides and totals on Monday. The Senators were sunk by horrendous goaltending - Anton Forsberg allowed four goals on 10 shots - but the under of 6.5 cashed in Edmonton.

Let's look at a couple of sides that pop off the page on Tuesday as we aim for a mini-sweep.

Kings (+100) @ Flames (-120)

The Kings are playing well of late but are in a tough spot on Tuesday night.

Already without key players like Viktor Arvidsson and Mikey Anderson, they lost star winger Adrian Kempe in Monday night's game.

Thus, the team will likely to without two of their best offensive players, as well as a stabilizing defender in Anderson, while playing in the latter half of a road back-to-back situation. That's less than ideal.

Making matters worse, it'll be Cam Talbot between the pipes. His last couple of games were better, but his play this calendar year leaves a lot to be desired.

He is conceding 4.18 goals above expected, the fourth-worst output among all goaltenders with double-digit starts in 2024.

For perspective, Jacob Markstrom has saved 15.75 goals above expected over the same period. He should continue to excel against a fatigued Kings team missing weaponry.

The Flames are more than capable of giving the Kings a run for their money. They just beat the Jets, Bruins, and Oilers and continue to chug along despite all the trade rumors surrounding key players on the team.

Look for the Flames to extend their winning streak to four against the Kings.

Bet: Flames (-120)

Stars (+115) @ Avalanche (-135)

The Avalanche have cooled off recently, dropping two in a row and seven of the past 10 overall.

But I don't think they're playing as poorly as the results indicate. The Avs are generating quality chances at an efficient clip and rank sixth in high-danger chances per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

They are, however, struggling to score. Only four teams are finding the back of the net at five-on-five at a lower rate.

The Avalanche aren't a super deep team, but they have as much firepower as anybody in the NHL. It's only a matter of time before they start to convert on the many chances they're creating.

I expect that to begin against the Stars. The Avalanche torched them in recent head-to-head meetings, scoring 19 goals over four games in the past 11 months.

It's also worth noting Jake Oettinger has not been his usual self this season. He owns a very mediocre .903 save percentage and has given up nearly three goals per game while playing behind an excellent lineup.

Playing behind a tired team at altitude, Oettinger is likely to be tested early and often in this one.

I think the Avalanche will break through offensively en route to a much-needed win over direct competition for a Central Division title.

Bet: Avalanche (-135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Can Couturier continue home-ice shot production? 3 props for Tuesday

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We swept the board with our player props Monday night, cashing a pair of overs and a fade of John Carlson.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more shot props for Tuesday's massive slate of games.

Sean Couturier: Over 2.5 shots

The Flyers have been a surprisingly strong shot-generation team this season, particularly on home ice. Their new captain, Sean Couturier, is the perfect example.

He registered at least three shots in 18 of 28 home dates this season (64% success rate), averaging a very healthy 3.6 shots per game.

Couturier's home outputs are drastically better than on the road: He owns a 33% success rate away from Philadelphia and averages 1.2 fewer shots on goal per game.

The good news for Couturier is he is at home against a Lightning team the Flyers might be fighting for a wild-card spot (the No. 3 slot in the Metropolitan is far from secured).

Couturier will be tasked with slowing down Hart Trophy candidate Nikita Kucherov. Given the importance of the game, and the fact the Flyers are off until Friday after this one, Couturier will no doubt get a full workload and then some.

He had six shots on eight attempts when the two sides met back in January. I don't expect that level of volume again, but Couturier should have ample opportunity to get a few pucks on net.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Gabe Vilardi: Over 2.5 shots

Vilardi has gone over his total in five consecutive games, four of which have come against weaker Jets opponents on the outside of the playoff picture.

He's facing another team that fits the bill in the Blues. They've conceded shots at a high clip all season long, giving up a lot of volume even when the wins are there.

The matchup at five-on-five doesn't get much better for Vilardi, as the Blues rank bottom five in shot suppression on the season and over the last 10 games.

Vilardi has also taken on a larger role on the power play. The Jets have run things through Vilardi more of late, allowing him to operate with the puck below the dots. As a result, he leads the team in power-play shots and attempts over the past 10 games, which raises his shooting floor and ceiling.

Vilardi recorded at least three shots in six of his last eight games versus bottom-10 shot-suppression teams. With another favorable matchup and a more significant role on the man advantage, I expect Vilardi to get the job done once again.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon is starting to kick things into high gear. His shot volume has spiked lately, with the superstar center recording at least eight attempts in eight of his past 10 games.

That is something of a sweet spot for MacKinnon, who has averaged 5.8 shots per game while posting a 62% success rate in games with at least eight attempts.

There's plenty of reason to expect another high-volume effort in this one. The Avalanche and Stars are among three teams duking it out for top spot in the Central Division. MacKinnon will see a heavy workload in this extremely important game for the Avalanche.

He should have 23-plus minutes against a team he has feasted on in recent years. MacKinnon recorded at least five shots in six of his last seven against the Stars, attempting more than 10 shots per game on average.

With two big points on the line and the Stars on the latter half of a back-to-back, MacKinnon is primed to continue shooting the lights out.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Back Senators to stay hot, fade offense in Kings-Oilers

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We split our best bets on Friday night: The Sabres took care of business in Columbus, but the Oilers couldn't convert a 23-shot edge into a victory against the Wild.

Let's dive into Monday's plays as we look to start the week off with a mini-sweep.

Senators (-120) @ Capitals (+100)

The Senators continue to quietly fire on all cylinders. They've won seven of their past 10 games and posted a 3-0-1 record over a tough four-game stretch in which they faced the Lightning, Panthers, Stars, and Golden Knights.

The Sens looks like a completely different team of late. Shane Pinto's return has made them deep offensively, and they seem to be buying into what Jacques Martin is selling defensively. They're playing impressive five-on-five hockey and showing great discipline. No team has spent less time shorthanded over the past 10 games.

That ability to stay out of the box is important heading into a clash with a suddenly hot Alex Ovechkin, who's feasted on the power play throughout his career.

While the playoffs remain a massive long shot, Ottawa's strung together enough positive results that the postseason is at least in the realm of possibility. That should keep the players motivated, especially against a team in the wild-card mix.

With a big advantage in the middle of the ice and a lot more team speed, the Senators should be able to do some damage at even strength.

If they can continue to stay out of the box and draw a penalty or two more than they take, it'll be very difficult for the Capitals to get a result.

Bet: Senators (-120)

Kings (+130) @ Oilers (-150)

Targeting an under is always scary when Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the Oilers are in the mix - but it's a plunge I'm going to take on Monday night.

The Kings and Oilers are as good as it gets at limiting shots at even strength. Over the past 10 games, they rank second and third in that category, respectively.

The clubs have played a lot of low-event games against each other of late. Their last four regular-season matchups featured an average of 3.75 goals.

We probably shouldn't expect this game to be much different, even though the Oilers conceded an abnormal 16 goals in their three-game skid.

Stuart Skinner has sprung a leak after playing over his head for months, so tightening the screws defensively and helping the goaltender will no doubt be a point of emphasis in Edmonton.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, never needs to be incentivized to play low-event hockey. The Kings' top priority on any given night is slowing down the opponent as opposed to generating offense themselves. That will hold true against McDavid.

L.A. can also feel pretty comfortable - relatively speaking - that it'll get saves when needed. David Rittich has saved 11.75 goals above expectation since the calendar flipped - the fifth-highest rate in the league.

I'm expecting a 3-2 or 4-2 game here, tucking us in under a hefty 6.5-goal total.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Backing Kane, Heiskanen to get pucks on net Monday night

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We have a small four-game slate in front of us to begin the week. Let's look at a few props that stand out as we hope to start things off on a high note.

John Carlson: Under 2.5 shots

Carlson has gone over his total just 36% of the time this season and in only four of his last 15 games (27%).

He's averaged only 5.2 shot attempts per game on the year. Although that volume sounds fine on the surface, it's not great for defensemen.

They routinely have to shoot through multiple layers of defenders and from far greater distances, which results in a much higher percentage of their shots being blocked or missing the net relative to forwards.

This has led to very low outputs when Carlson doesn't have a ceiling game in terms of attempts. Carlson has generated just 1.6 shots on goal over the 35 games he's attempted five shots or fewer this season.

There's plenty of reason to believe Carlson is heading for such a game versus the Senators. They've been one of the best shot-suppression teams in the league over the last month. Ottawa has also done a terrific job staying out of the penalty box, spending just 2:42 shorthanded per game in February.

The Sens aren't giving up many shots, nor are they taking many penalties and allowing opposing stars to be put in easy offensive situations.

This is a matchup I expect Carlson to struggle in.

Odds: -114 (playable to -135)

Miro Heiskanen: Over 2.5 shots

Heiskanen needs two things to have success shooting the puck: home ice and a weak opposing defense. Both boxes are checked tonight as the Stars host the Islanders.

We'll start with home ice. Heiskanen has averaged 6.4 shot attempts per game in Dallas compared to just 4.8 on the road. Given the difficulty of getting shots through consistently, volume is especially important for defenders. Heiskanen generates it at home.

He also has a mouthwatering matchup against the Islanders. Although they have tightened the screws a little bit under new head coach Patrick Roy, they're still a very targetable team.

They rank 31st in shots against per game to defensemen this season, conceding more than all but the Sharks. They also rank inside the bottom 10 over the past 10 games.

Likely to log over 24 minutes in a juicy matchup, Heiskanen is primed for an active night shooting the puck.

Odds: -102 (playable to -120)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Kane is one of the more consistent shooters in the NHL. He's averaged 3.1 shots on goal and gone over his total in 63% of his appearances this season.

His numbers spike further in Edmonton, where Kane averages 3.3 shots per night and has posted a remarkably strong 67% success rate.

What I love about Kane is matchups don't seem to matter to him in the slightest. Whether he's facing top-10 or bottom-10 defenses in terms of suppressing shots, the volume and success rates are nearly identical.

That's very noteworthy heading into a game versus the Kings. They play a slower brand of hockey and have been excellent at limiting shots for years. That hasn't seemed to impact Kane. Playoffs included, he's recorded three or more shots in 16 of 19 games versus Los Angeles over the past couple of seasons.

Odds: -145 (playable to -160)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Oilers to rebound vs. Wild on Friday night

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Although there are only three games on the board Friday night, a couple of sides still pop off the page. Let's dive in.

Sabres (-140) @ Blue Jackets (+120)

The Blue Jackets are having a miserable time defensively. They've allowed just under 33 shots per game this month and are giving up real quality as well. Only two teams - the Sharks and Predators - have conceded more expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

Their metrics would be concerning under any circumstances. That the best team they've faced in that span sits 13th in the NHL - and three of the five games were against clubs nowhere close to a playoff position - only makes matters worse.

Columbus is putting a lot on its goaltenders, and there isn't reason to believe they can hold up.

Elvis Merzlikins has allowed at least three goals in seven of eight starts in 2024. He also gave up two goals on two shots during his short cameo against a horrible Ducks team.

Daniil Tarasov owns a .881 save percentage and has allowed upward of four goals per game this season.

The Blue Jackets just can't get reliable saves, something they need with how many shots and chances they're giving up.

For all the Sabres' faults, they've looked a lot better of late. They've generated 33.4 shots on goal per game since the calendar flipped, good for fourth most in the NHL during that span.

The team has also gotten consistently excellent goaltending from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, who sits second in the NHL in goals saved above expected in 2024.

The Sabres are likely to heavily test the Blue Jackets' subpar goaltending. With an in-form UPL at the other end, this is a spot where Buffalo should take care of business.

Bet: Sabres (-140)

Wild (+155) @ Oilers (-185)

The Oilers are firing on all cylinders offensively. They've scored 26 goals over the last five games and are full value for it, ranking third in high-danger chances during that span.

With weapons like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Co., the Oilers don't need a ton of opportunities to find the back of the net. That they're generating chances at such an extreme rate makes them borderline unstoppable.

Filip Gustavsson likely won't be up to the task. His game has fallen off a cliff relative to where it was a year ago, and he's showing no signs of improvement.

Gustavsson has allowed 10.44 goals above expectation since Jan. 1, the most of all NHL netminders. The Wild have often managed to outscore his struggles, but getting into a track meet with the Oilers is unlikely to end well.

Minnesota has also struggled mightily to stay out of the penalty box of late. Parading to the bin would be a recipe for disaster against this lethal Oilers power play, which generates chances at a higher clip than any other team.

This is a big step up in class for the Wild, whose recent success doesn't look as impressive when factoring in competition.

Their wins this month have come against the Blackhawks, Coyotes, Penguins, an injury-battered Golden Knights team, and the Canucks in a game they scored on eight of 25 shots against a backup.

Look for the Oilers to flex their muscles inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Oilers in regulation (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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