All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Thursday best bets: Avalanche, Kings to get back on track

Wednesday night's slate was a mixed bag for us. We started on a positive note by winning our under - at plus money, no less - in the Boston versus Florida game.

We appeared destined for a 2-0 night, but, despite dominating the game, Dallas blew a lead with a minute to go in regulation and then fell in overtime to the undermanned Vegas Golden Knights.

We'll aim for better tonight as we look at the best way to attack this nine-game slate.

Jets (-115) @ Kings (-105)

Winnipeg enters this contest in a good spot. The team has won three consecutive games, and its captain, Blake Wheeler, might return to the lineup.

Combine that with the recent injuries to Kings defenders Drew Doughty and Sean Walker, and the Jets seem like an obvious team to back, right? Not so fast.

The Jets, despite their recent success, aren't playing very well. They place 26th in expected goal share at five-on-five, and they're ranked even worse for high-danger chances. Only the Vancouver Canucks and Detroit Red Wings have controlled smaller shares in the latter category than Winnipeg (42%).

So, why have the Jets been winning? A combination of high shooting percentages and Connor Hellebuyck.

I doubt they're going to continue shooting the lights out sans Mark Scheifele, and Hellebuyck won't be in the net tonight to bail out the team's defensive mistakes.

Instead, it'll be journeyman Eric Comrie between the pipes. The 26-year-old has bounced around quite a bit in recent years. He's only appeared in nine NHL games, and they haven't gone well as he owns a .873 career save percentage.

While the Kings aren't exactly known for their finishing ability, they do generate chances in bulk. They're tied with the Washington Capitals for fifth in high-danger chances at five-on-five.

I expect L.A. to create plenty of opportunities against Winnipeg, which should lead to success against Comrie.

Bet: Kings -105.

Avalanche (-125) @ Blues (+105)

The Blues are an improved team, and I expect them to contend for a playoff spot in the Central Division. With that said, I think people are getting a little too carried away with the hype surrounding the club right now.

While they are undefeated, their 5-0-0 record isn't as impressive as it looks on the surface. Hear me out.

St. Louis opened the season with a 5-3 win over Colorado. The Avalanche were missing Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Devon Toews, among others. Despite that, Colorado out-chanced the Blues by 17 and came very close to taking them to overtime.

The Blues followed that up by beating a tanking Arizona team that started Carter Hutton, arguably the league's worst regular goaltender.

Up next? They squeezed out a 3-1 win over the Golden Knights, who were playing without Max Pacioretty, Mark Stone, and Alex Tuch.

Then they beat Los Angeles - minus Doughty - a couple of times while losing the Grade A chance battle 27-20 in aggregate. Truly impressive.

Yes, they can only play the teams in front of them. Yes, they deserve credit for finding ways to win. But their schedule, aided by injury troubles, has been soft, and, quite frankly, the Blues haven't controlled play as much as I'd like to see given the circumstances.

This is a team with a negative five-on-five high-danger chance differential - even accounting for score effects - that's been propped up by an unsustainably high 105.5 PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage).

Tonight St. Louis expects to be without two-way star Ryan O'Reilly, who led the team in goals above replacement (plus-24.3) over the last two years. That's going to make a big difference, especially going up against the likes of MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen.

Even undermanned on the backend, I like the Avs to hand the Blues their first loss of the season.

Bet: Avalanche -125.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Starstruck in Dallas

Headlined by a heavyweight clash between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers, we have a fun five-game slate on the docket for tonight.

Let's take a look at the best way to attack it.

Golden Knights (+125) @ Stars (-145)

Vegas is off to a really sluggish start to the season. The team is dealing with a plethora of injuries to impact players - most notably Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty - and playing nowhere near the level we're accustomed to seeing.

While the Golden Knights picked up a much-needed win in Colorado on Tuesday night, I don't like their chances of going back-to-back in Dallas.

Vegas, as mentioned, is missing several of its best players. Not just stars, but high-end support pieces like Alex Tuch and Alec Martinez. Making matters worse, the Golden Knights are playing their third game in four nights, and they won't have Robin Lehner between the pipes either.

The Stars have only played once since Friday's win over Los Angeles. They're at home, well-rested, and getting healthier, with John Klingberg recently returning to the lineup.

Dallas should have an edge in goal as well. Braden Holtby's last couple of years have been rocky, but he owns a sparkling .939 save percentage and 2.4 goals saved above expectation over five games this season. He should be able to out-duel Laurent Brossoit, should it come to that.

Bet: Dallas Stars -145.

Bruins (+110) @ Panthers (-130)

This is a titanic clash between two of the Eastern Conference's best teams.

The Bruins and Panthers have combined to post a 9-0-1 record in the early going of the season, and they've had similar paths to victory. Boston ranks second in expected goal share at five-on-five, while Florida places sixth. The clubs have dominated territorially.

The Panthers have been more prolific offensively, but they're also holding up their end of the bargain in the defensive zone. Florida ranks seventh in chances against per 60 minutes. Boston is fifth.

These teams know how to suck the life out of opposing attacks. I expect they'll be looking to do just that considering the star power they're up against.

If all else fails, early indications suggest the goaltending should be good. Linus Ullmark is 2-0 with a .935 save percentage, and Sergei Bobrovsky shockingly leads the NHL in goals saved above expectation (plus-9). I don't know whether he can keep it up, but he's looked good so far.

Expect playoff-type intensity from the Panthers and Bruins tonight. Given how well each side defends and how competent the goaltending should be, I like this game to end under the number.

Bet: Under 5.5 goals (+105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL weekend preview: Maple Leafs to best undermanned Penguins

We're coming off a solid night on the ice, posting a 2-1 record with our best bets.

The Calgary Flames blanked the Detroit Red Wings, while the San Jose Sharks moved to 3-0-0 with a win over the Ottawa Senators.

The Colorado Avalanche kept us from a perfect night, as we were on the wrong end of a great performance by Florida Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky.

Moving along, we have a busy weekend of action ahead. Let's take a look at a few games to target over the next couple of days.

Bruins (-210) @ Sabres (+170)
Oct. 22, 7 p.m. ET

The Sabres are one of the feel-good stories in the NHL through the first few contests. They're undefeated over three games, and it's well deserved as they've controlled a league-leading 64% of the expected goals at five-on-five.

However, Buffalo isn't going to continue controlling the run of play to that extent. Even if it sustains strong chance numbers, the team lacks the scorers to finish on a remotely consistent basis. The Sabres' goaltending duo of Craig Anderson and Dustin Tokarski is also among the worst in the NHL.

Suffice to say, the good times will end sooner than later, and the first wake-up call could come tonight against Boston.

The Bruins are among the league's top five-on-five teams every year, and there's not much reason to expect anything different this season. They played pretty well in Philadelphia the other night - high-danger chances were 16-4 Boston - but fell short anyway.

Boston is no doubt looking to get back on track in a hurry, and I think it's going to overwhelm Buffalo.

It may not be a pretty game to watch, but I expect the Bruins to take care of business inside regulation.

Bet: Bruins in regulation (-130)

Maple Leafs (-120) @ Penguins (+100)
Oct. 23, 7 p.m.

The Penguins are as accustomed to playing without key players as any team in the league. They consistently do a good job at it, too.

But their problems are destined to catch up with them against the Maple Leafs on Saturday night.

Sidney Crosby may make his season debut in the contest, but Pittsburgh will still be without Evgeni Malkin, and now Jeff Carter is in COVID-19 protocol. Oh, and Bryan Rust recently went down with an injury, as well. The Penguins roster is paper-thin right now, especially at center.

That feels problematic when going up against the likes of Auston Matthews and John Tavares. Toronto seems likely to get the better of the chances, and it certainly has more healthy firepower to convert those opportunities.

The Leafs are also resting Jack Campbell on Friday, ensuring their starter is healthy and ready to go against Pittsburgh.

Bet: Maple Leafs (-130 or better)

Canucks (-110) @ Kraken (-110)
Oct. 23, 10 p.m.

The Kraken haven't exactly received a warm welcome to the NHL in the early going of their inaugural season.

They opened the year with five consecutive road games, winning only one of those contests. Seattle's underlying numbers aren't great either, as it ranks 27th in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five.

Still, the Kraken seem like a team worth backing Saturday night. The fans will undoubtedly provide a huge lift as the club plays at home for the first time.

And the competition isn't exactly stiff. Despite all of Seattle's injuries and COVID-related issues, Vancouver is one of the few teams it's out-performed in terms of xG.

Things have started pretty rough for the Kraken, but they're starting to get healthy and are putting the pieces together. I still believe this team can contend for a playoff spot in a weak Pacific Division. This game is a good opportunity to right the ship.

Bet: Kraken (-130 or better)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Flames to heat up

We had a quiet night Wednesday, filing just one official play. The Bruins outshot the Flyers by 15 and recorded 12 more high-danger chances, but unfortunately for us, the Bruins still came out on the wrong side of a 6-3 scoreline.

It's a new day and tonight's massive slate offers plenty of opportunities to get back on track. Let's dive into our best bets.

Sharks (-115) @ Senators (-105)

The Sharks are off to a nice start, scoring nine goals in two early wins and controlling better than 57% of the expected goals at five-on-five. San Jose is playing legitimately well.

Though the Senators are also out to a respectable 2-1 start, their underlying profile isn't nearly as strong. They own an expected goals share below 50%, which is hardly surprising considering the lack of depth on the Ottawa roster.

While neither side is likely to challenge for a playoff spot, the Sharks are destined to be the better of the two with youngsters like William Eklund and Jonathan Dahlen supporting a veteran core.

I expect that to shine through in this game, especially with Matt Murray between the pipes for the first time this season. Only Brian Elliott (-19.3), Martin Jones (-18.9), and Carter Hart (-18.3) conceded more goals above expectation than Murray a year ago.

He is unlikely to bail out the Senators if they're outplayed tonight.

Bet: Sharks -115

Flames (-135) @ Red Wings (+115)

The Flames remain winless on the year, but don't let that fool you - they've largely played well.

Though Calgary dominated the Oilers on the shot clock in the season opener, Connor McDavid did Connor McDavid things and turned every Edmonton opportunity into a goal. Fair enough.

The Flames responded by thoroughly outclassing the Ducks, winning the expected goals battle 3.88 to 1.87, but Calgary couldn't convert on its opportunities against a locked-in John Gibson and eventually paid the price by losing in overtime.

While many are jumping off the Flames bandwagon, I think their results thus far have provided an opportunity to buy low.

Calgary has out-chanced opponents 58-23 (71.60 SCF%) at five-on-five through two games. The Flames are showing the ability to control the run of play and, with Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm leading the charge, it's not as if they're devoid of talent to finish plays off.

Still, they're getting little respect on the betting market. The odds imply a 57% chance of Calgary beating a rebuilding Red Wings team that won just 36 games from 2019-21 - let's take advantage of that.

Bet: Flames -135

Rapid fire: Colorado Avalanche (-105)

With Nathan MacKinnon healthy and Gabriel Landeskog back from suspension, I think this line is a little short. The Panthers are a good team, but the Avalanche entered the season as Stanley Cup favorites and they're going up against Sergei Bobrovsky, one of the league's worst netminders over the last couple of seasons. Priced at a near coin flip, there is value backing the Avalanche to snap their mini losing streak.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Bruins to roar on road vs. Flyers

We have a very light schedule tonight, as there are just four teams slated to play.

Let's take a look at the best way to attack this small slate.

Bruins (-140) at Flyers (+120)

These teams saw a lot of each other while playing in the East Division last season, and the action was rather one-sided.

The Boston Bruins won six of eight games, picked up a point in one of the other two, and dominated in every sense of the word. They outscored the Flyers by 11 and controlled more than 56% of the expected goals across all game states.

I expect the Bruins' success to continue Wednesday against the Philadelphia Flyers, who added some good pieces during the offseason - most notably Ryan Ellis - but also a couple of players who could cause more harm than good.

Martin Jones posted a sub-.900 save percentage in three straight years prior to hitting the open market. There's no reason to believe he's a competent NHL goaltender, and yet he was the Flyers' solution to their backup woes. Jones will get his first start against a very good Boston team that features arguably the best top line in the NHL.

Meanwhile, Rasmus Ristolainen - objectively one of the worst defenders in the league for years - is expected to make his Flyers debut. He's set for extended minutes, which is likely problematic for Philadelphia.

The Bruins have more high-end talent and are a better defensive side, and Jeremy Swayman is more likely to provide a quality start than Jones.

Even on the road, I'm comfortably backing the Bruins as clear favorites.

Bet: Bruins -140

Blues (+110) at Golden Knights (-130)

This game isn't in range for me to play on either side.

The St. Louis Blues aren't priced as well as I hoped considering Pavel Buchnevich is suspended. That's a big loss for them, especially on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights.

Vegas is also missing some heavy artillery with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone. Even so, its forward group is competent, and it has plenty of high-end talent on the backend.

This is a line we'll have to watch throughout the day. If the Blues get into the +120 or +125 range, I'd be happy to pull the trigger.

On the flip side, the Golden Knights - or perhaps the over of six goals - would deserve serious consideration if Ville Husso gets his first start of the campaign.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Coyotes to keep singing the Blues

We shook off a slow start for our NHL best bets to finish last week in style, winning two recommended plays on both Thursday and Friday.

We'll look to pick up where we left off as we enter the second week of the 2021-22 NHL campaign.

Blues (-170) @ Coyotes (+150)

It's difficult to emphasize just how bad the Coyotes are. They conceded eight goals in the season opener against a Blue Jackets team expected to finish near the bottom of the league standings.

Arizona followed that up with another loss to a team with no expectations in the Sabres. Though that game was decided in a shootout, it didn't take long to identify the better squad. That squad was Buffalo, as the Sabres outchanced the Coyotes 23-11 at five-on-five and controlled nearly 65% of the expected goals.

So, Arizona lost by six goals and was then second-best against a team that will be in the thick of the Shane Wright sweepstakes. Yikes.

The Coyotes are back at home tonight, which will surely provide a bit of a jolt, but it's unlikely to matter much against the Blues.

St. Louis has far more talent than Arizona at every position. With the offseason additions of Brandon Saad and Pavel Buchnevich - as well as a healthy Vladimir Tarasenko back in the mix - the Blues are extremely deep up front.

Expect St. Louis to dominate possession and overwhelm the Coyotes on the shot clock. With big edges in finishing talent and in goal, we like the Blues to take two points in regulation.

Bet: Blues in regulation (-115)

Rangers (+160) @ Maple Leafs (-180)

There's not much value in picking winners on Monday's NHL slate. But there is value on Maple Leafs captain John Tavares to score his first goal of the season at +180 when Toronto battles the Rangers.

Tavares has been everywhere through three games. He's amassed 21 shot attempts and 14 scoring chances, nine of which were considered high-danger opportunities. All of that has amounted to a team-leading 2.11 expected goals - and zero actual goals.

He's a fantastic finisher, having scored on at least 10.8% of his shots every year since entering the NHL in 2009. Playing with William Nylander at even strength and net-front on a loaded power play, Tavares will certainly have no shortage of chances coming his way.

It's only a matter of time before he converts.

Bet: Tavares to score a goal (+180)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Friday best bets: Let’s get Wild

We bounced back in a big way on Thursday night with two relatively easy wins. The Blue Jackets pummelled the Coyotes, 8-2, while the Stars and Rangers combined for just four goals in regulation, ensuring a clean win on the under of six goals.

We'll look to keep the good times rolling as we head into a busy weekend of sports.

Blackhawks (+115) @ Devils (-135)

I was hoping to be on the Devils in this game - we're going to be fading the Blackhawks a lot this year - but, sadly, there isn't enough value on the line because of their injury concerns.

The Devils will be without starting goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood due to a heel issue. They're also missing their second pairing of Ty Smith and Damon Severson, as well as depth winger Miles Wood. They'd probably still be my preferred side in this game but it's a long season - we don't need to force plays when the value isn't there.

Instead, we're going to attack this contest with player props. I like backing Jack Hughes to record a point (-112) and/or an assist (+170) in what should be a high-scoring game.

Chicago is a bad defensive side and they will remain one even with Seth Jones. They were out-chanced by 21 against a Colorado team missing Nathan MacKinnon, and a lot of those chances came with Jones on the ice.

I think Jones' reputation far outweighs his value - especially defensively. Hughes is a great bet to take advantage of that.

While his counting totals didn't pop off the page last season, Hughes did create chances at a high clip. With another summer of development and an improved supporting cast, I think Hughes is poised for a breakout campaign.

It starts Friday against an overrated Chicago team expected to rest its starting goaltender.

Wild (-170) @ Ducks (+150)

The Anaheim Ducks rained on our parade against the Winnipeg Jets last time out. However, we're going right back to the well Friday with the Minnesota Wild.

I do think the Wild take a bit of a step back this year - part of last season's success can be attributed to unsustainably high PDO - but they still shouldn't have much trouble against the Ducks.

The Wild finished 14 spots ahead of the Ducks in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five, and both sides are returning similar rosters.

Anaheim will have a difficult time creating offense at five-on-five, as no team gave up fewer high-danger chances than Minnesota a year ago. Despite the loss of Ryan Suter, I expect the Wild to continue to suffocate their opponents on a nightly basis this year.

So long as Cam Talbot doesn't allow a softy, the Wild should take care of business.

Bonus round: I have my eye on the Vancouver Canucks (+130) against the Philadelphia Flyers (-150). I'd recommend pulling the trigger if and when news comes out that Brock Boeser will be available.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Hart Trophy odds: Will MacKinnon claim his 1st?

The Hart Trophy is dominated by forwards, with a center or winger claiming it 17 of the last 18 years.

Since the hardware consistently goes to high-scoring forwards on playoff teams, we can narrow down our player pool while looking for value. Let's get to our best bets.

Player Odds to win
Connor McDavid +250
Nathan MacKinnon +650
Auston Matthews +850
Nikita Kucherov +1500
Artemi Panarin +1900
David Pastrnak +2000
Sebastian Aho +2000
Andrei Vasilevskiy +2100
Brayden Point +2200
Mikko Rantanen +2500
Mitch Marner +2700
Brad Marchand +3000
Mathew Barzal +3000
Aleksander Barkov +3200
Patrick Kane +3200
Mark Stone +3300
Kirill Kaprizov +3400
Alexander Ovechkin +4200
Jonathan Huberdeau +4200
Max Pacioretty +4200
Anze Kopitar +4500
Cale Makar +4500
Elias Pettersson +4500
John Tavares +4500
Kyle Connor +4500
Marc-Andre Fleury +4500
Mika Zibanejad +4500
Quinn Hughes +4500
Semyon Varlamov +4500
Sidney Crosby +5000

Note: Listed only those 45:1 or less with the exception being Sidney Crosby (+5000), who's referenced in this article.

Nathan MacKinnon (+600)

To win the Hart, you have to pile up the points for a powerhouse team or an underdog that sneaks into the playoffs on the back of its brightest star. MacKinnon definitely fits the former.

The Colorado Avalanche won more games than any other team over the last two years, and it was MacKinnon leading the charge. He produced at an eye-popping 110-point pace in 2019-20 and a 111-point pace this past season.

Though those outputs didn't earn him an MVP, he was firmly in the mix. He finished second to Leon Draisaitl in 2019-20 and third in 2020-21, so it's not as if he's going unnoticed.

If MacKinnon can sustain this level of production and also lead his team to another Presidents' Trophy, he has a strong chance of claiming his first Hart.

Nikita Kucherov (+1500)

I strongly considered Auston Matthews (+850) here - he's averaged 59 goals per 82 games over the last two years - but we're betting numbers rather than players, and more value lies with Kucherov.

Kucherov is one of the most dynamic talents in the league; he recorded 100 points, 128 points, and produced at a 103-point pace in the last three seasons, respectively.

Then, after missing an entire regular season, Kucherov jumped into the playoffs for the Tampa Bay Lightning and didn't skip a beat. He accumulated 32 points in 23 games, which equates to 114 points over a full season. And, again, this was without any game reps to get up to speed. He was thrown into the fire and dominated.

Call me crazy, but I think a consistent 100-plus point producer on a team that's won consecutive Stanley Cups has better than a ~6% chance of winning the Hart.

Sidney Crosby (+5000)

Crosby is a long shot, obviously, but these odds are too extreme. Yes, I realize he's past his peak and banged up right now. But I still see plenty of value here.

He finished fourth in Hart voting last year, and that was while averaging 1.12 points per game, which equates to 92 over a full year. That's impressive, sure, but not extraordinary.

Crosby is expected to miss only a week to start the season. For safety purposes, we can assume he'll miss two weeks. That's only five or six games, which wouldn't hold him back from contending for the award.

I have little doubt Crosby can match last season's output on a per game basis. He's still very much elite.

And he'll get a lot of praise if he can do that because of injury issues in Pittsburgh. The season hasn't even started and the Penguins have already lost star center Evgeni Malkin for at least the first two months.

That means, once again, the weight of the world will rest on Crosby's shoulders. If he can continue to excel offensively, while also garnering praise for his defensive game (perhaps more than deserved), he's going to get attention from voters.

A strong showing - at age 34 - from the longtime face of the league gives him better than a 2% chance of adding to his trophy collection.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Rocket Richard Trophy odds: There’s value backing The Great 8

Alex Ovechkin has won the Rocket Richard seven times over the last nine seasons, with the shortened 2021 campaign serving as one of the lone exceptions.

Is there value in backing Ovechkin to reclaim his throne, or has his time passed?

We'll examine that and more as we dive into our best bets.

PLAYER ODDS
Auston Matthews +350
Leon Draisaitl +700
Connor McDavid +750
Alex Ovechkin +1000
David Pastrnak +1200
Alex DeBrincat +1700
Kirill Kaprizov +1700
Kyle Connor +1700
Mika Zibanejad +1700
Nathan MacKinnon +1700
Brayden Point +2000
Mikko Rantanen +2000
Nikita Kucherov +2000
Sebastian Aho +2000
Aleksander Barkov +2500
Brad Marchand +2500
Jake Guentzel +2500
Max Pacioretty  +2500
Patrick Kane  +2500
Nikolaj Ehlers +3000
Steven Stamkos +3000
Artemi Panarin +3500
Bryan Rust +3500
Elias Pettersson  +3500
Mark Scheifele  +3500
Patrice Bergeron  +3500
Sam Reinhart  +3500
Elias Lindholm +4000
Gabriel Landeskog  +4000
John Tavares  +4000
Jonathan Huberdeau  +4000
Mark Stone  +4000
Sidney Crosby  +4000

Only displaying players with odds 40-1 or shorter

Auston Matthews (+350)

Matthews is the NHL's best goalscorer. He leads all players in tallies over the last three seasons and has netted 18 more than anybody at five-on-five since 2019.

Goals count the same regardless of game state, of course, but it's important not to be one-dimensional. Matthews doesn't rely on power-play opportunities as heavily as others. He can score consistently without them, or when things aren't clicking on the man advantage. That helps separate Matthews from everyone else. And if Toronto's power play, which ranked 15th in goals per minute last season, gets better, it'll only raise Matthews' already high ceiling.

His wrist shouldn't be a problem following offseason surgery, and we should expect a motivated Matthews after another excruciating playoff disappointment.

Alex Ovechkin (+1000)

I realize Ovechkin is getting up there in age and is no longer in his prime, but this line feels disrespectful to arguably the best goalscorer we've ever seen.

The guy is 36, and yet only Matthews has scored more goals per game over the last two seasons. That's right: just one player was more efficient on a per-game basis than Ovi, while nobody generated more shot attempts.

Despite his absurd track record of scoring goals, and his unrivaled shot volume, the odds imply Ovechkin has a 9% chance of leading the league in tallies. That feels very low, especially considering he's chasing Wayne Gretzky's scoring record. Ovechkin will be pushing for each and every tuck he can get.

Sebastian Aho (+2000)

If you want to go value hunting and back a bit of a wild card, Aho may be your guy.

He's not necessarily someone you think of as an elite sniper, but he has the numbers to back it up. Only seven players have scored more times over the last two seasons.

It's no coincidence that Aho has ranked so high. In fact, he was unlucky not to finish higher. Aho generated more expected goals than all but three players (Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, and Brady Tkachuk) during that time. Yes, he even finished ahead of Ovechkin.

Goals usually come to those who are best at generating chances, and very few have matched Aho in that regard. If you think the best is still to come for the 24-year-old, there's value in backing him here.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Pacific Division betting preview: Can anyone stop the Golden Knights?

The Vegas Golden Knights have won the Pacific Division two out of the three years they've played in it.

Might the newest expansion team, the Seattle Kraken, be the best bet to stop Vegas from doing it again?

We'll get into that and more as we look at the best way to attack the Pacific Division futures market.

Team Odds to win division
Vegas Golden Knights -280
Edmonton Oilers  +550
Seattle Kraken +1000
Vancouver Canucks +1400
Calgary Flames +1500
L.A. Kings +1800
San Jose Sharks +6000
Anaheim Ducks +20000

The favorites

With implied odds of 73.7%, Vegas (-280) is a heavy favorite to win the Pacific. Rightfully so. They made the final four just a few months ago and by all accounts were a dominant team in the regular season. They won more games than anybody while only Colorado fared better in terms of five-on-five goal share. Outside of Marc-Andre Fleury, whose departure will sting, the Golden Knights' most notable "losses" were Tomas Nosek, Ryan Reaves, and Cody Glass, who was struggling to establish himself in the lineup. Almost the entire cast is returning, which means the Golden Knights are positioned nicely to win a poor division.

The rest

I have a hard time believing the Oilers (+550) can give the Golden Knights a run for their money. Their top six are as potent as anyone's and they have a lethal power play, but the list of positives ends there. Defensive play is almost certainly going to be a problem. It wasn't a great group last season and they replaced Ethan Bear, a promising up-and-comer, and Adam Larsson, a stout in-zone defender, with Duncan Keith and Cody Ceci. The former is long past his best-before date and Ceci, simply put, is not very good. Put that weak blue line in front of questionable goaltending and it's a recipe for disaster. Yes, Mike Smith was good last season. His track record in recent years isn't, though, and the 39-year-old is a likely candidate to regress. Mikko Koskinen isn't capable of carrying the load if and when that happens. This team is going to have a hard time outscoring its problems, which is saying something considering the Oilers have two of the best players in the league up front.

Seattle (+1000) is an attractive alternative to Vegas. People are down on them because they didn't have a flashy draft and left some talent on the table. I get it, but the pieces are still there to be solid. While the Kraken may be lacking high-end talent up front, Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz, Jared McCann, and Yanni Gourde (who is ahead of schedule in his recovery), should help score enough to get by, especially considering the quality depth behind them. The Kraken also have the potential to be one of the best defensive sides in the NHL. Larsson, Mark Giordano, Jamie Oleksiak, and even Carson Soucy are all strong in-zone defenders. Vince Dunn is an underrated threat ready to explode with more opportunity. The pieces are all there to be a formidable group. The Kraken have a fantastic one-two punch in goal, too, with Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger. They might not play a sexy brand of hockey, but they have the potential to grind out a lot of wins in this division.

I don't want anything to do with the Canucks (+1400) this season. Their forwards are solid, and I love Thatcher Demko in goal, but I just can't look past their defense core. It is, in a word, horrible. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is a shell of his former self. Tyler Myers is overpaid and overused. Tucker Poolman, Travis Hamonic, and Luke Schenn are a third pairing at best. It's Quinn Hughes, who does have shortcomings defensively, and a bunch of "blah." This team is going to be in tough to make the playoffs, let alone contend for a division title.

Calgary (+1500) should be a more competitive side in its first full season under Darryl Sutter. They have a few stars on the roster to work with and a bunch of "Sutter guys" - none more so than Blake Coleman - who fit into the coach's play style. The Flames should also have strong goaltending with Jacob Markstrom and newcomer Daniel Vladar manning the crease. There's potential here.

Los Angeles (+1800) is on the up. The Kings have a ton of quality prospects and made some nice moves this offseason to improve right now. They do have surprise potential in this division, but they're likely a year or two away from making some noise.

The Sharks (+6000) are a disaster. Their roster is littered with declining, overpaid players who will be used in prominent roles. Given where they're at, they kind of have to accept defeat and suffer through a couple of poor seasons while they try and clear things out. This team will not be good.

I have no idea what the Ducks (+20000) are doing. There's no plan with the team. It's a bad club - and has been bad for years - yet it's making almost no changes. They're not moving big-ticket players. They're not using veterans on expiring contracts to stockpile pieces for a rebuild. They're just keeping the band together, which is puzzling considering the lack of floor and ceiling this team has.

Best value: Calgary Flames (+1500)

This Flames team is interesting. Their top-six forwards, overall, are good at both ends of the ice. Mikael Backlund is an elite 3C. The defense core - led by the Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin pairing, which was dominant last season - is competent, and they're in excellent shape in goal. They could grind out a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 wins. Vegas would need to be hit with the injury bug for Calgary to have a real shot but at +1500 the Flames are certainly worth consideration.

Best bet: Seattle Kraken (+1000)

I backed the Kraken to make the playoffs so I might as well sprinkle in some division futures. They should be a strong defensive side with excellent goaltending. If, like Vegas a few years ago, they can benefit from a couple of players popping with more opportunity coming their way, this team could surprise.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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