All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Thursday player props: 2 shot totals to attack

We have a full slate of games on the docket Thursday and you know what that means: shot props!

We're 75-60 on the year for +14.01 units. Let's comb through the value and try to build on that with today's best bets.

Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots on goal (-135)

Joel Eriksson Ek is scorching hot. The Minnesota Wild forward has recorded at least three shots on goal in eight consecutive games and is averaging 4.2 shots on target over his last five.

He draws a mouth-watering matchup Thursday against the Buffalo Sabres, who have struggled to limit shots all season, especially on the road. The Sabres are allowing 35.09 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play away from home. That ranks them last in the NHL.

Look for Eriksson Ek to stay hot and capitalize on an advantageous matchup.

Max Pacioretty over 3.5 shots on goal (-145)

This might seem like a hefty price to lay for over 3.5 shots. For a lot of guys, I'd agree. However, Max Pacioretty is definitely an exception.

Pacioretty is off to an absolutely insane start to the campaign with the Vegas Golden Knights. He's recorded 62 shots through just 11 contests, good for an average of 5.6 per game.

Unsurprisingly, he has been a god when it comes to going over the number, with at least four shots in nine of his 11 appearances. He ended up at three the two times he failed to go over the number.

That means he's hit the over 82% of the time and was just one shot away when he fell short.

Pacioretty is a legitimate threat to hit four each and every night. I don't think the New Jersey Devils - losers in 12 of their last 15 games - are going to change that.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday best bets: Islanders to best undermanned Bruins

Our best bets are firing on all cylinders as we're 4-0 on sides and totals on the week.

Let's get into our picks for tonight's busy 10-game slate.

Bruins (+100) @ Islanders (-120)

It's not every day you back a team on track for 65 points - as favorites, no less - against a perennial playoff side playing at a near 100-point pace.

But the New York Islanders are slowly starting to play better. They've picked up points in five of their last seven games and their expected goals for percentage is just below 50%. While that's nothing to write home about, it's a step in the right direction.

Now they're at home against a Boston Bruins team that's been decimated by COVID-19. The Bruins are top-heavy at the best of times so playing without three top-six forwards - Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak, and Craig Smith - will be absolutely crushing.

The Islanders have their own issues - Mathew Barzal is also in COVID protocol - but their much healthier lineup is certainly capable of beating a team running Jack Studnicka, Charlie Coyle, Trent Frederic, and Tomas Nosek down the middle.

Look for a desperate New York team to take advantage of a golden opportunity.

Bet: Islanders (-120)

Flyers (-140) @ Canadiens (+120)

Don't look now, but the Philadelphia Flyers have won three consecutive games. They've controlled nearly 54% of the expected goals at five-on-five over that time, a sign that the wins aren't just smoke and mirrors.

I like the Flyers to extend their winning streak to four tonight, but this play is more about fading the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens rank dead last in expected goals against per 60 over their last 10 games. They get caved in each and every night and continue bleeding quality chances.

Given Montreal's abundance of injuries, there isn't much reason to expect anything different in the immediate future.

I don't like Cayden Primeau's chances of masking the team's issues. He owns an .883 save percentage through eight NHL appearances and has lost all six games that weren't against the Ottawa Senators, who've been rebuilding since he first played in the league.

Philadelphia seems poised to score in bulk, which should allow it to get things done within 60 minutes.

Bet: Flyers inside regulation (+105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday player props: Home cooking

We have an enormous 13-game slate on the docket tonight. Combing through all the games and finding value is a large task under normal circumstances. With COVID-19 running rampant through the NHL, there's even more to factor into the equation.

Let's get into our best bets.

Sam Bennett over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)

Sam Bennett is an absolute monster. He's averaging seven shot attempts and 4.2 shots on goal per game over the last 10 contests, and he's recorded at least three shots in nine of those games.

Bennett is also significantly more productive on home ice. He's averaging 4.3 shots at home - compared to just three on the road - and Aleksander Barkov is out again with an injury, which means more opportunities for Bennett.

Not to mention, the matchup is extremely good. The Ottawa Senators rank dead last in shot attempts against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. The same can be said on the penalty kill.

The Senators bleed shots in all situations, and Bennett is one of the game's best volume shooters. He should be able to pile up the shots in this game.

Jason Zucker over 2.5 shots on goal (+105)

Jason Zucker, like Bennett, is somebody who benefits greatly from playing at home. He's recorded at least three shots on goal in 10 of his last 12 games in Pittsburgh and amassed 38 shots (3.16 per) over that span.

He's consistently getting the job done regardless of opponent. Now, he draws one of the best matchups you could ask for against the Montreal Canadiens.

The Canadiens are paper-thin right now due to injuries, and that's really hurt their defensive play. They rank 30th in shot attempts against per 60 minutes at five-on-five over their last 10 games, while only the Philadelphia Flyers have allowed opponents to fire pucks on net at a higher rate.

This is a really good spot for Zucker to stay hot.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday best bets: Wild, Red Wings to rebound on home ice

We started the week without any hockey. The league had just one game scheduled for Monday, and, unfortunately, COVID-19 nixed the contest.

Luckily, we're going to get our fill - and then some - tonight as the NHL ramps back up with a 13-game slate.

Let's get into our best bets.

Hurricanes (+130) @ Wild (-150)

The Hurricanes are one of the NHL's better teams, but this is a tough spot for them.

They're up against an elite Wild team that owns a 10-2-0 record on home ice. Minnesota is full value for it, having controlled a whopping 58.18% of the expected goals at five-on-five. Winning would be a tough task for Carolina at the best of times, but the team is facing some pretty extreme circumstances.

This is the Hurricanes' fifth road game since last Tuesday, and they're going to be without a plethora of important players. Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis, among others, aren't expected to play due to injuries and COVID-19.

The Wild are getting healthier on defense and play their best hockey at home. I like them to get back on track against this depleted Hurricanes side.

Bet: Wild in regulation (+100)

Islanders (-115) @ Red Wings (-105)

The Red Wings have gone ice cold of late, losing three consecutive games by at least three goals.

Meanwhile, the Islanders won two of three and picked up at least a point in five of their last six contests. Back those trends to continue, right? I don't think so.

New York remains lifeless offensively. The Islanders are generating just 2.15 xG per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games. That's a brutal number, and now they're expected to be without their best weapon in Mathew Barzal. Detroit isn't stout defensively, but it should limit New York in this game, especially with Alex Nedeljkovic between the pipes.

Nedeljkovic has stopped 4.3 goals above expectation this year. He's a clear upgrade over Thomas Greiss, who owns a minus-4.2 in that category.

I just don't see the Islanders scoring more than a couple of goals in this game. I'm happy to back the Wings on home ice - where they're 9-3-2 - at near even money.

Bet: Red Wings (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Calder Trophy odds update: Can Zegras edge out Red Wings duo?

Just a few months ago, Cole Caufield was the stone-cold favorite to win the Calder Trophy.

Fast forward and the 20-year-old winger has netted just once through 21 games and seems more likely to have another stint in the AHL than to finish inside the top 10 in Calder voting.

Let's take a look at the current board and break down how the race is shaping up.

Player Odds to win
Lucas Raymond +275
Trevor Zegras +330
Moritz Seider +600
Dawson Mercer +1200
Jeremy Swayman +1600
Michael Bunting +1800
Dan Vladar +2200
Spencer Knight +2500
Bowen Byram +2500
Seth Jarvis +2500
Jonathan Dahlen +2500
Cole Caufield +3000
Alex Nedeljkovic +3000
Jamie Drysdale +3000
Alex Newhook +3500
Cole Sillinger +3500
Anton Lundell +3500

Favorites

Lucas Raymond was one of my dark horses prior to the season. He has lived up to the hype and then some, piling up 10 goals and 14 assists through 28 games while skating on the top line for the surprisingly competent Detroit Red Wings. One of the most impressive things about Raymond has been his efficiency at five-on-five. He's averaging more points per minute in that game state than the likes of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andrei Svechnikov, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak, among many others.

It hasn't taken long for Trevor Zegras to develop into a human highlight reel at the NHL level. The flashy Anaheim Ducks pivot has picked up 22 points over 28 games and has served as the primary play-driver and facilitator on one of the league's more underrated lines with Rickard Rakell and Sonny Milano. He'll be in the mix until the end.

Moritz Seider is going to be a franchise defenseman. You can argue he already is for the Red Wings. He's on pace for 55 points this season and yet his play without the puck might be more impressive than his offensive ability. He has logged more than 22 minutes per night - often against top competition - and has shown the ability to slow down elite players with his fantastic positioning, stickwork, and anticipation. Seider is certainly carrying the heaviest workload in this rookie class, and it sure looks like he can handle it.

Wild card

Dawson Mercer, like the New Jersey Devils as a whole, has slowed a bit as of late. However, he remains within striking distance of entering the race. Mercer sits two goals back of the team lead and owns a plus-7 goal differential at five-on-five while playing for a team that is minus-4 on the year. Put another way, the Devils are -11 when Mercer isn't on the ice. If New Jersey's power play can get going and help Mercer prop up his offensive output a little bit, he could get back into the mix.

Long shot

Anton Lundell plays for the powerhouse Florida Panthers so he's not asked to do as much as the aforementioned rookies. Even so, he deserves plenty of credit for what he has accomplished thus far. At five-on-five, the Panthers have controlled 52.50% of the shot attempts with Lundell on the ice. They've fared even better when looking at goals (58.33%). He has helped Florida maintain an edge when its depth lines are on the ice and is already the team's ace on the penalty kill. Lundell has played 65 minutes shorthanded; Jonathan Huberdeau (55) is the only other forward on the roster who has logged more than 40 minutes. Lundell likely needs Aleksander Barkov or Sam Bennett to miss considerable time in order to really push - he won't put up enough points otherwise - but his two-way prowess could place him in the conversation.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting preview: Can Oilers rebound at home?

Thursday was a mixed bag on the ice. While the side and total picks in our best bets failed to hit, the three shot props highlighted in the player props article all came through.

We'll look to end the week on a high note as we comb through the best bets for the weekend ahead.

Predators (+100) @ Devils (-120)
Dec. 10, 7:30 p.m. EST

I know this is a game I want to target tonight, but we just have to wait for goalie news to find the best way to approach it.

If Juuse Saros is able to return in goal for the Predators, the under of six goals (-115) is very attractive. Nashville has conceded 14 fewer high-danger chances than the next closest team over the last 10 games. The Preds' stingy defense, coupled with strong goaltending from Saros, would likely lead to very little action on the scoreboard, especially given the matchup.

The Devils' defense has tightened up of late, ranking 10th in expected goals against over the last 10 games and boasting a high-end penalty kill. If Mackenzie Blackwood can provide serviceable goaltending, they should be able to keep Nashville to a low number as well.

However, if Saros isn't playing, New Jersey is suddenly very appealing. The Predators are playing their third road game in four nights against a rested Devils team that hasn't travelled in over a week.

The Devils' five-on-five numbers are respectable, the penalty kill has been elite, and their power play is (finally) showing signs of life.

We'll have to wait for news on if Saros is starting to determine which route to take, but this is a game I want to be involved in either way.

Bet: Under 6 goals (-115) if Saros starts, otherwise Devils (-120)

Hurricanes (+100) @ Oilers (-111)
Dec. 11, 10 p.m. EST

The Oilers have hit a bump in the road of late, but they're still playing pretty good hockey. They've controlled nearly 52% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the last 10 games, but their sore spot has been finishing. Edmonton is shooting just 6.25% as a team, good for 27th in the NHL over that stretch.

Part of the reason for that is a lack of depth; the Oilers are top-heavy and don't have many guys capable of scoring in their bottom-six. Even so, they're running a little too dry right now.

I think we're going to see the offense come to life sooner than later, perhaps aided by the power play.

Though the Hurricanes are a fantastic defensive team, they are prone to taking penalties. They've been shorthanded for eight minutes more than any other team over the last 10 games, which could lead to real trouble against the Oilers.

As effective as the Hurricanes are at killing penalties, they'll be playing with fire - to an extreme - if they parade to the box against Connor McDavid and Edmonton's lethal power play.

Bet: Oilers (-111)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday player props: Backing volume shooters

We have a full slate of games on the docket tonight, which means the return of shot props! We've posted a 61-43 record and are up 17.66 units on the season.

Let's get into our best bets as we try to keep climbing.

Steven Stamkos over 2.5 shots on goal (+110)

Stamkos has recorded at least three shots on goal in seven of the last 10 games on the road. I like his chances of continuing that trend tonight against an injury-plagued Montreal Canadiens side that is bleeding shots.

At five-on-five, the Canadiens have allowed 66 shot attempts - including 39 shots on goal - per 60 minutes over the last 10 games. Both totals rank them dead last. And they posted those numbers with Jeff Petry, their best defender, in the lineup. One can only imagine how they'll fare without him.

Montreal has also struggled to suppress shots while killing penalties, sitting 28th in shots against per 60 in that time. Stamkos is a go-to shooter on the man advantage so he figures to benefit most from this advantageous spot.

Given Stamkos' road success and this mouth-watering matchup, I'm happy to back him at plus money.

Timo Meier over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)

Death, taxes, and Timo Meier going over his shot totals. He has amassed at least four shots on target in eight of his last 10 games and has averaged 4.9 in that span.

Meier has done his best work on home soil, going over the number in six of seven tries while recording 5.1 shots on target per contest.

While the Calgary Flames are a strong defensive side, they're much more exploitable on the road.

They concede only 23.33 shots on goal per 60 in their own building, which comfortably ranks them first. However, Calgary allows more than 31 shots per 60 on the road, putting it 17th in the league.

The Sharks will no doubt look to get their sniper in favorable matchups and, at home, they should be able to do just that. Back Meier to stay hot against the Flames.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday best bets: Blackhawks to snap Rangers’ lengthy win streak

We started the week on a high note, going 2-1 with our best bets. The Vancouver Canucks blanked the Los Angeles Kings while the Anaheim Ducks kept things close and covered the +1.5 spread against the Washington Capitals. If not for a couple of posts from the New Jersey Devils, we could have been looking at a perfect night.

Nevertheless, we gave ourselves a good base to build upon, so let's get into our best bets for tonight's busy slate.

Rangers (-130) @ Blackhawks (+110)

The Blackhawks are not a good team. They just don't have the necessary defensive acumen or depth throughout their roster. However, they are better than they were at the start of the year.

Chicago has won six of its last 10 games. In that time, the team ranks 16th in shot attempt share, 22nd in scoring chance share, and it owns a positive goal differential. The Blackhawks aren't playing great hockey, per se, but they're competent, particularly when Marc-Andre Fleury starts.

Fleury has really responded from the worst start imaginable. Among 37 eligible netminders, Fleury sits eighth in five-on-five save percentage. He's sandwiched between Thatcher Demko and Connor Hellebuyck - great company!

Things haven't gone as smoothly for Alexandar Georgiev, who's projected to start tonight for the Rangers. He's conceded 7.7 more goals than expected through eight appearances this season. Among those with at least seven games played, only Aaron Dell and Anton Khudobin have allowed more goals than expected per 60 minutes than Georgiev (minus-1.25).

While New York's play is trending upwards, Georgiev tends to erase a lot of the good work done in front of him.

I see value on Chicago as home underdogs.

Bet: Blackhawks (+110)

Lightning (-220) @ Canadiens (+180)

The Canadiens have struggled from the word go this season, and things are somehow getting worse. They've controlled just 38.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the last 10 games, which is an unfathomably bad number.

With key players like Tyler Toffoli, Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson, and Jeff Petry out of the lineup due to injury, I don't see things getting better for Montreal. They might well get worse.

The Lightning have controlled better than 52% of the expected goals on the season. They should have their way against the injury-plagued Canadiens.

Andrei Vasilevskiy, who will return to the pipes following a night off, should have little problem fending off this putrid Canadiens offense.

I don't see Montreal hanging around in this game.

Bet: Lightning -1.5 (+120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend preview: Panthers to stay hot vs. Binnington-less Blues

Thursday was a good night on the ice. We won both shot props and rightfully backed the Colorado Avalanche to win in regulation. Had things gone differently for the New York Islanders in overtime, we'd have swept the board. Alas, a 3-1 night will have to do.

Let's keep climbing as we head into the weekend.

Sharks (+170) at Rangers (-200)
Dec. 3, 7 p.m. ET

You generally want to target strong defensive teams and quality goaltending when looking at unders. This game certainly meets that criteria.

The San Jose Sharks, somewhat surprisingly, have played fantastic defensive hockey of late. At five-on-five, they've given up just 1.77 expected goals per 60 minutes in the last seven games. That's good for second in the NHL behind only the Boston Bruins.

Meanwhile, the New York Rangers have certainly found their footing defensively after a horrendous start to the season. They've allowed just 1.89 expected goals per 60 in the last seven, which slots them fourth in that span.

Seven games is a rather arbitrary cutoff, but the point is both teams enter this contest playing stingy defense.

And it's not as if the goaltenders need the help. James Reimer sits eighth among those with 10-plus appearances in goals saved above expectation per start.

Igor Shesterkin grades out even higher in that regard, sitting third at +0.828 GSAE per start.

With both teams limiting quality, and each starter playing at a high level, I don't expect fireworks in this game.

Bet: under 5.5 goals (-105)

Blues (+130) at Panthers (-140)
Dec. 4, 1 p.m. ET

The St. Louis Blues are going to be a common fade for the next couple of weeks. Starting netminder Jordan Binnington is in COVID-19 protocol for around 10 days, which means a lot of Ville Husso. That's bad news for St. Louis.

Though his numbers are solid through five games, Husso posted a .893 save percentage last year and was rather mediocre in the AHL the two seasons prior. There's a pretty long track record that suggests he's nothing more than a fringe NHL goaltender.

The Florida Panthers are certainly going to put him to the test. They lead the league in shot attempts per 60 and sit second - behind only the Toronto Maple Leafs - in scoring chances per 60. They should be able to generate a lot against Husso, and I like their odds of capitalizing.

Back the Panthers on home soil against a Blues side missing key players Binnington and Justin Faulk.

Bet: Panthers (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday player props: Huberdeau, Hedman to stay hot

Shot props return to the app for this busy Thursday night in the NHL. We're sitting on a 46-34 record for +11.35 units on the year.

Let's get into our best bets.

Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots (-110)

The Blues are a structured defensive team that takes away quality shots and forces teams to the perimeter. They rank ninth in high-danger chances against per 60 but 17th in shots against per 60. St. Louis will undoubtedly stress the importance of protecting the middle of the ice with Jordan Binnington unavailable due to him being in COVID-19 protocol.

Victor Hedman figures to be a prime beneficiary of the Blues' style. We saw that firsthand the last time these two sides met when Hedman recorded three shots on goal at five-on-five alone. Across all game states, he amassed six shot attempts and five shots on target, easily clearing the number.

Look for the Lightning's leader in shot attempts and shots on goal to be heavily involved in this one.

Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots (-120)

While Jonathan Huberdeau is rightfully thought of as a playmaker first, he's not afraid to pull the trigger. That has certainly been evident of late.

Huberdeau has piled up 35 shots on goal over his last 10 games, and he recorded at least three shots in nine of those contests.

He's consistently hitting the number, so this isn't a spot where I'm worried about a letdown.

The Sabres bleed shots like few other teams, giving up 34.02 per 60 minutes of play over their last 10 games. Only the Canadiens, Flyers, and Devils have allowed shots at a higher clip.

Let's ride the hot hand in an advantageous matchup.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.