The Blue Jackets are playing their worst hockey of the season. They've won only three of their last 10 games and, at five-on-five, have controlled just 41.91% of the expected goals over that span, which ranks them 31st.
They'll get a key player back in Oliver Bjorkstrand but will lose a pair of important pieces in Zach Werenski and Elvis Merzlikins. Columbus was already thin on defense so not having Werenski, who averages well over 26 minutes per game, is crushing.
Merzlikins is clearly the best goaltender on the roster. The Jackets can ill afford to lose him, especially against such a strong opponent.
The Lightning have amassed 110 high-danger chances over the last 10 games. Only three teams have generated more. Suffice to say, Tampa Bay should be able to expose Columbus' shaky defense and questionable goaltending.
I think the Lightning, who have lost three straight, will be out for blood in this one. Expect them to capitalize on an advantageous matchup and win inside regulation.
The Predators are the hottest team in the NHL. They enter play with an 8-1-1 record over their last 10 games, which is equaled by two sides but bested by zero.
They are full value for their recent string of success. Nashville has owned teams at five-on-five, controlling 58.38% of the expected goals.
A lot of that stems from their ability to dominate the high-danger chances. The Predators rank 12th in Grade A looks in this span, while no team has given up fewer. Essentially, they've been above average at creating dangerous opportunities and better than anybody at preventing them.
The Golden Knights are no pushovers - even when undermanned - but I think the wrong side is favored here. Vegas doesn't have Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, or Robin Lehner, and Jack Eichel is not yet ready to return. Those are key players to be missing when going up against a complete, red-hot team like Nashville.
I don't expect a cakewalk but do back the Preds to win for the ninth time in 11 games.
Bet: Predators (-105)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We have a huge eight-game slate on the docket tonight, which means there are plenty of shot props to comb through.
Shot props have been very profitable this season - my record sits at 92-73 for +16.45 units - so let's hope that continues tonight.
Brad Marchand over 2.5 shots on goal (-110)
Brad Marchand has been one of the NHL's most consistent shot generators lately, registering at least four - yes, four - shots in seven of his last eight games. Marchand's not just going over the number - he's doing so comfortably.
While the New Jersey Devils have defended better recently, they're still not a great defensive team. The Devils will also be without star Dougie Hamilton on the back end, which should make them more susceptible to spending time in the defensive zone.
I also like that David Pastrnak - a very trigger-happy player - is off the top line. With him on a different line, there's more puck to go around for a guy like Marchand.
Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots on goal (-130)
Victor Hedman is one of my favorite targets. He's a willing shooter, and he logs so many minutes that he's in play every single night regardless of opponent. This time around, Hedman just so happens to find himself in a dream matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
No side has allowed more shots, at five-on-five or overall, than the Blue Jackets over the last 10 games - they're getting peppered by anyone and everyone.
To make matters worse, the squad is now without defenseman Zach Werenski. The star rearguard averages well over 26 minutes for Columbus, so suffice to say, the unit's going to feel that loss.
Hedman has registered three shots or more in six of his last seven and eight of the last 10. I like him to stay hot and come through again tonight.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The 2021-22 NHL campaign is flying by, with some teams having already played 43% of their games.
Despite nearing the halfway point of the season, we haven't seen much separation in the hunt for the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy.
Let's take a look at how the race is shaping up.
Player
Odds
Goals
Leon Draisaitl
+275
25
Alex Ovechkin
+330
24
Auston Matthews
+350
20
Connor McDavid
+600
19
Kyle Connor
+1600
19
Only listing players with odds 20-1 or shorter.
Leon Draisaitl
Draisaitl has a few things working for him in his quest for hardware. He leads in goals and goals per game, generally double-shifts on the power play, and leads all forwards in average ice time per game at nearly 23 minutes. He's certainly going to get every opportunity to fill the net. However, his shots and chance-generation lag behind the competition, meaning he needs to shoot at an extremely high percentage to maintain his output.
Alex Ovechkin
What can you say about Ovechkin? The guy is just a monster. It feels like he's been around forever, yet he's logging 22 minutes a night and lapping the field in shots on goal. Unlike Draisaitl, Ovechkin's output is driven more by volume than percentage. I think he has a real shot at passing the current leader.
Auston Matthews
After Matthews' slow start to the season, I noted that his chance-generation was still through the roof and that he'd catch up sooner than later. Well, that happened: Matthews is up to 20 goals in 28 games. Using his goals-per-game output, he would be at 22.8 over 32 games (the number Draisaitl has played). Matthews doesn't log the same kind of ice time but he might not need to. He leads the NHL in scoring chances by 27 and we all know the kind of shot he possesses. If he keeps piling up the chances to this extent, he's going to contend for his second straight trophy.
Connor McDavid
McDavid is absolutely a tier (or two) below the big three. He doesn't generate the same shot volume as Ovechkin or Matthews, nor does he finish at Draisaitl's rate. It's going to be tough for him to hang around and I'd be surprised if he's in the mix much longer. Still, he's the NHL's most talented player, so you never know.
Kyle Connor
Connor generates shots and scores at a high clip but is noticeably behind the big three in terms of shot generation or conversion rate, if not both. While I wouldn't be surprised if he nets 40 goals, I don't see him passing the 50-goal mark it'll likely take to win the "Rocket" Richard.
Best bet: Matthews (+350). Nobody matches his chance generation and he's been more opportunistic than Ovechkin, McDavid, and Connor over the last couple of years. If Matthews stays healthy and can continue generating chances at such a high clip, he has an excellent chance of beating the field.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Oilers have struggled to keep the puck out of the net lately, ranking 26th in five-on-five goals against over the last 10 games.
The Devils have fared even worse over their last 10, conceding 30 five-on-five goals, which is more than all but the tanking Coyotes. Both sides are giving up goals in bunches.
I don't see that changing in this game. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the Oilers' high-powered - yet top-heavy - offense should have its way against this Devils team. Even if they don't generate chances in bunches, Mackenzie Blackwood hasn't shown the ability to limit the damage, owning an .884 save percentage since mid-November. Not great!
On the flip side, the Oilers have dealt with some issues defensively. Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes, for once, are both healthy at the same time. The pair combined for four points in Hischier's return to the lineup last time out and should spearhead the top-six to give the Devils a pair of capable scoring lines.
The Oilers have hit a rough patch. They're entering the weekend with just three wins over the last 10 games. Luckily, there are reasons to believe a turnaround could be coming.
For one, they've controlled better than 52% of the expected goals at five-on-five during this streak, so a minus-10 goal differential and 37.5% goal share hardly seem warranted. If they continue to control the run of play to this extent, the results are going to regress positively sooner than later.
They're also getting some much-needed reinforcements, with Darnell Nurse and Jesse Puljujarvi being activated from the COVID-19 list and expected to return against New Jersey.
For his faults, Nurse is one of the team's best defensemen, while Puljujarvi is nearly a point-per-game player who should offer real support to McDavid and Draisaitl with the scoring help they need.
All things being equal, I think the Oilers are a better side than the Islanders. And when you factor in some of the absences New York is dealing with - Ryan Pulock, Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri - I'm not sure it's close.
Bet: Oilers up to -125
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
I love the Hurricanes tonight, and I'm not sure you could price them high enough for me not to back them against the Canadiens.
Carolina is one of the league's best teams and is finally starting to get healthy. Among many other Hurricanes, Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal, and Seth Jarvis are back in the mix and expected to play tonight.
When they're anywhere close to full health, the Hurricanes are a lot for any team to handle, let alone for a bad Montreal squad decimated by injuries and COVID-19 issues.
The Habs have won just two of their last 10 games, which is no coincidence since they've posted a woeful 43% expected goals for percentage at five-on-five during that span.
Several absences play a key role in their struggles. It could actually be easier to list the regulars who are available for them rather than the ones who aren't.
The Canadiens don't have their first-, second-, or third-string goaltender available, and their forward core has been thinned out to the point that Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Ryan Poehling are playing top-six roles. Meanwhile, on defense, recent waiver pickup Kale Clague finds himself on the second pairing. Things are bad.
Montreal has thrown in the towel at this point and is just letting young guys get reps while the losses continue to pile up. I'm expecting another long night for the Habs in Carolina.
The Islanders have won eight times in 26 tries, so I can't get behind them at anywhere close to this price.
New York is far from playing its best hockey entering this game, ranking 29th in Corsi For percentage and 23rd in expected goals for percentage over its last 10 games. In both metrics, they slot lower than tonight's opponent: the Sabres.
I don't expect a sharp turn of the corner as the Islanders are dealing with plenty of injuries and COVID-related absences, including Ryan Pulock, Brock Nelson, and Kyle Palmieri.
Backing Malcolm Subban is a very scary proposition. But with Alex Tuch healthy, and top prospects Peyton Krebs and JJ Peterka up with the big club, Buffalo has enough talent to keep games competitive against fellow basement dwellers.
I like the Sabres on the puck line and wouldn't be against sprinkling them on the moneyline.
Bet: Sabres +1.5 (-145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We split our best bets in the NHL's return to action.
The Vegas Golden Knights comfortably took care of the Los Angeles Kings. However, our under in San Jose was over - no pun intended - before it started as the teams combined for four goals in the opening frame en route to a *checks notes* 15-goal explosion.
We'll aim for better in our first six-game slate in nearly two weeks on Wednesday.
Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-170)
This is undoubtedly the marquee game of the night in the NHL, featuring two of the nine teams to have 40 points or more.
While both teams have more than their fair share of firepower, it is the under that appeals to me. The Florida Panthers are playing strong defensive hockey. Over the last 10 games, they sit second in attempts against and fifth in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. They're not giving up many dangerous looks and Sergei Bobrovsky (.917 save percentage) has shown he's still capable of cleaning up the occasional mess made in front of him.
New York's defensive metrics aren't as promising as Florida's. Even so, the club is still top half of the league in limiting shots and expected goals over the last 10 games.
And, to be frank, it doesn't much matter how the Rangers defend when Igor Shesterkin is between the pipes. He owns a ridiculous .937 save percentage and ranks second in goals saved above expected.
If he can shake off the rust following a few weeks of inaction, this game should stay under the number.
Bet: under 6 goals (-110)
Canucks (-110) @ Ducks (-110)
The Vancouver Canucks are 6-0-0 since Bruce Boudreau took over behind the bench. It's not all smoke and mirrors, either.
At five-on-five, they rank 11th in expected goal share - sandwiched between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins - and only seven teams have generated more scoring chances.
They have shown clear improvement on the penalty kill as well, conceding just twice in six games. That's a stark contrast from the 29 they allowed in 25 games with Travis Green behind the bench.
The Anaheim Ducks are not the pushovers many expected them to be. But they are expected to be without a few key cogs on Wednesday.
Trevor Zegras is by far the most impactful absence, but injuries to Adam Henrique and Max Comtois are also worth noting. The Ducks are now paper thin up front.
Expect the Canucks to take advantage of that and keep the hot streak going.
Bet: Canucks (-110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The return of hockey means one thing and one thing only: Shot totals are back!
We're in the midst of a nice season and own an 80-65 record for +13.24 units. We'll look to pick up where we left off and hit the ground running as hockey ramps up again.
Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots on goal (-125)
Hedman is riding a hot streak. He registered at least three shots on target in seven of his last 10 games and eight of his last 10 at home.
That trend should continue against the Montreal Canadiens for a few reasons. The Habs rank 32nd in five-on-five shots against per 60 over the last 10 games. They also struggle on the penalty kill, sitting 30th. Hedman plays a key role in all situations so he's as likely as anyone to take advantage of Montreal.
Beyond that, the Lightning have a cluster of injuries on the back end. Top-four defenders Erik Cernak and Mikhail Sergachev will both miss tonight's game, which should increase Hedman's workload.
He's a good bet to play 25 or more minutes in one of the best matchups he could ask for. Back him to hit three shots.
Erik Karlsson over 2.5 shots on goal (-105)
Karlsson is firing on all cylinders - literally. He recorded at least three shots in seven of his last nine games and averaged 6.1 attempts per contest over that span.
I like his chances of staying hot here. The Arizona Coyotes are a poor defensive team that gives up the most volume to defenders in the NHL. Arizona allows 10.76 shots on goal per game to defenders - music to the ears of big-minute, volume-shooting defensemen like Karlsson.
The Sharks are expected to be without key players like Tomas Hertl and Kevin Labanc tonight, which could also give Karlsson more offensive responsibility.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We're approximately a third of the way through the 2021-22 NHL season, and while that's enough time to get real indications of teams' positions in the league hierarchy, the sample size is still small enough that luck plays a factor in a club's standing.
Let's take a look at which teams have benefited - or been hurt - most by luck thus far.
Lucky
Washington Capitals
The Capitals are a very good team. They consistently outperform expected numbers - elite shooting talent allows for that - and they've found ways to pile up wins despite dealing with as many injuries and COVID-19-related absences as almost anyone. They deserve credit.
That said, their results to date are a little extreme. At five-on-five, Washington's high-danger chance differential through 31 games is plus-7. The team has controlled 50.64% of the high-danger chances and 52.94% of the expected goals. Good numbers, but nothing to write home about.
Yet the Capitals lead the league in five-on-five goals, having scored 78 on 64 expected goals. They've also conceded 51 despite giving up nearly 57 expected goals. Those numbers suggest they should be roughly seven goals up. Instead, they rank first in the NHL with a plus-27 differential (78 for, 51 against). Normally, that would be attributed to the shooting ability of Alex Ovechkin and his fellow stars. But Washington has dealt with absences of many of its top guns - and journeymen and unproven prospects have helped maintain top-tier results. I'm skeptical that can continue at this pace.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues have been one of the league's biggest surprises thus far. They own a strong 17-9-5 record and rank just outside the top 10 in points percentage. It's hard to argue they're deserving of such a record.
St. Louis has controlled just 47% of the expected goals at five-on-five. That's good for 24th in the NHL, sandwiching the Blues between the Kraken and Blue Jackets. Not overly impressive, is it?
Even after accounting for special teams, the Blues sit below a 50% share in almost every key metric. They've gotten by on high shooting and save percentages.
I don't expect the wheels to fall off. But I'd be surprised if St. Louis is still in the mix for first in the Central Division by the end of the year.
Unlucky
Seattle Kraken
You can't spell unlucky without the Kraken ... or something like that. Seattle has enjoyed the success - or lack thereof - you'd generally expect from an expansion franchise. The team has won just 10 of 30 games thus far, and on many occasions, its chances of winning disappeared by the end of the opening frame.
Part of that is because the Kraken lack high-end talent, especially up front. But extremely poor luck has played a major role as well.
Philipp Grubauer's contract was always a bit of a gamble; future performance is hardest to predict in goaltenders. Betting big on someone who will be on the wrong side of 30 for the entirety of a deal is risky, to say the least. But nobody could have foreseen Grubauer's struggles thus far.
Before this season, he had logged at least 17 appearances in seven NHL seasons. His save percentages in those years: .925, .918, .926, .923, .917, .916, .922. Those are sparkling numbers.
Even after accounting for a move from a juggernaut Avalanche squad to an expansion franchise, nobody could have envisioned an .882 save percentage through 23 games. Those are numbers you'd expect from a mediocre AHLer called up due to injuries.
Is poor performance really luck? In this case, I'll say it is, at least for Seattle. The team had every reason to expect - at the very least - average goaltending. Grubauer has never provided less. And yet he's cost the Kraken game after game, even contests they've played well in.
Seattle might not be a good team, but it's unlucky to be this bad.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils have plenty of problems. Their power play is the worst thing I've ever seen, and they lack true finishers. Those two problems were always going to limit what this team could accomplish.
But a quick glance at some key numbers suggests New Jersey is better than 10 wins in 30 games. The Devils are above 50% in expected goals share at five-on-five and look very good in terms of high-danger chances. They've generated 290 high-danger opportunities, tying them with the Panthers for sixth in the NHL. That has amounted to no success.
New Jersey sits fifth in high-danger chance share (54%) at five-on-five. Actual goal share? The club is at 44.35%, good for 27th.
Even after accounting for those issues, the Devils' underlying performance is closer to that of a fringe playoff team than one expected to contend for a top pick.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The holidays are just around the corner, and you know what that means: The return of the World Junior Hockey Championship.
The annual tournament gets started in a few days, with four games kicking things off on Sunday.
Let's get you set for several weeks of what should be high-action, drama-filled hockey.
TEAM
ODDS
Canada
+140
USA
+330
Russia
+550
Finland
+650
Sweden
+650
Czech Republic
+1000
Germany
+4000
Switzerland
+5000
Slovakia
+5000
Austria
+18000
Canada (+140)
Team Canada enters this tournament as favorites, and for good reason. Its lineup is stacked, especially at forward. Up front, they have a plethora of highly skilled first-round picks in Kent Johnson, Cole Perfetti, and Mason McTavish, among others, and the latter two already have some NHL experience. There is quality depth throughout the forward group, including wild cards like Shane Wright and Connor Bedard - two youngsters expected to go first overall over the next couple of drafts.
More question marks lie with the defense. The Canadians shockingly left Brandt Clarke off the team despite him finding success in Slovakia's pro league last season, being the eighth overall selection, and producing at better than a point per game pace with the Barrie Colts this year. Canada expected Clarke to be a key cog on the backend, so his absence is questionable, to say the least - particularly with zero right-handed defensemen on the roster. Even so, it probably won't matter. Owen Power is more than capable of heading the defense, Olen Zellweger is quickly rising in the ranks in terms of top defense prospects league-wide, and Kaiden Guhle's brunt style should provide some stoutness to the blue line.
This squad seems destined to play for gold.
USA (+330)
Team USA looks like a very balanced side. Its forward group isn't loaded with future offensive stars, but there's enough talent to win a lot of games. Matty Beniers, Matt Coronato, and Sasha Pastjujov are the team's most skilled weapons and should cause problems, especially on the power play. I don't see a ton of firepower beyond those guys, but Team USA might not need it since its defense should be extremely stout. All eight defenders on the roster are on NHL teams, so there's a nice mix of high-end talent (Luke Hughes, Jake Sanderson) and experience (Tyler Kleven, Scott Morrow, etc.) that should neuter opposing attacks.
The big question for me: Can they keep up? USA should give up very few shots/chances against soft competition, thus winning handily. But against top teams, their goaltending could be problematic. There's only one drafted goaltender on the roster (Drew Commesso), and he has a .900 save percentage in the NCAA this year. If he can't hold up, I'm not sure USA can outscore its problems against top-end opponents.
I'll likely fade USA against other heavyweights, especially if favored.
Russia (+550)
Russia builds its lineup the same way every single year. The team has a few star players and surrounds them with a ton of veterans. Forget 16 and 17-year-olds - Russia even carries very few 18-year-old players. The Russians like to bring bigger, stronger, and more mature players who have been in the system longer. This year is no different, with 17 players on its roster who are 19 years old.
I expect Russia to make a lot of noise in this tournament. Minnesota Wild prospect Murat Khusnutdinov is one of the best-kept secrets in hockey. Khusnutdinov and Alexander Pashin will head the offense and no doubt pile up the points throughout. The defense, headlined by returnee Shakir Mukhamadullin, should be good as well, and Yaroslav Askarov is more than capable of masking any of the squad's mistakes and stealing games.
This team is going to give up very little to opposing offenses and rely on its stars for a push across the finish line. I think Russia's a legit contender in this tournament. Unders could be especially appealing when the side reaches the elimination round.
Finland (+650)
Finland is following the same model as Team Russia this time around, littering its lineup with 19-year-old players and having 10 returnees from last year's squad. Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Topi Niemela is going to head what should be one of the tournament's best blue lines, and Finland's goaltending should be good as well. This team really won't concede many goals.
My worry is Finland struggle to score against high-end competition. While the roster does have seven drafted forwards, there isn't much in the way of high picks or top-end talent.
Finland's goal will be to beat up on the soft competition and hope to bleed offenses dry when playing against the best teams. Like Russia, this could be a side to target with unders when games matter most.
Sweden (+650)
I think Sweden is the most underrated team in the tournament by far. The team's not getting nearly enough respect on the betting market. There simply aren't many - or any? - holes.
We'll start with the forwards. The Swedes have 12 NHL-drafted players, including first-rounders like William Eklund, Alex Holtz, and Oskar Olausson. That trio expects to play together on what might be the best and most dynamic line in the entire competition.
Simon Edvinsson should play 25 minutes a night on the backend and absolutely dominate at both ends of the rink every time he's out there. Sweden doesn't have another defender close to his caliber, but they do have five other drafted players who should nicely compliment Edvinsson.
In the crease, Sweden has not one, not two, but three 19-year-old netminders on NHL franchises. If Jesper Wallstedt falters as the team's No. 1 goalie for any reason, the Swedes have the talented depth to pick up the slack.
I see value on Sweden to take the tournament outright, and I'll no doubt be looking to bag them as underdogs against other prominent countries.
The long shots
I don't think much of this Czech Republic side. They have a few nice pieces on the roster but none capable of dominating against high-end opponents. The Czechs could beat up on some weaker clubs - and potentially hang in some low-scoring affairs against a defense-first team like Finland - but there isn't much hope to claim a medal. The most value you'll get betting Czech Republic games might come after potential blowout wins, thus having the market overreact about its chances of hanging with a powerhouse team.
Germany made some noise in the past by playing their stars into the ground, which helped mask depth issues. Unfortunately, that's not an option this year. Tim Stutzle, J.J. Peterka, and Co. are all playing pro hockey in North America and were not released to play for their country, so Germany only has two drafted prospects rostered and no high draft picks. The Germans' ceiling - as in best case scenario - is likely stealing a game against the Czech Republic in which the former will get outshot 15-20.
It feels like every year, Switzerland upsets a squad far out of its weight class or at least comes close to doing so. I don't see that happening this year. The Swiss just don't have the horses to keep up with USA, Russia, or Sweden - all of whom they'll face in group play.
That leaves Slovakia as the only hope for a win, and I think the chances of pulling even that off are slim. Don't let just three drafted prospects fool you - this Slovakia team has talent. Behind two projected 2022 first-round picks in Filip Mesar and Simon Nemec, this team has quite a few budding stars poised to hear their names called in a few months. I think Slovakia could be a great value if remotely close to even money against Switzerland, and the side might be a puck line play against a team like USA due to potential issues in goal.
Lastly, we have Austria, an emerging hockey country that still has a way to go. The team doesn't (yet) have a drafted player, and structure can only take teenagers so far. Players this age are prone to being sucked into the emotions of the game, which can lead to missed assignments, bad penalties, and more. It's easy to get distracted into the lows, and unfortunately, there will probably be many for Team Austria.
Best bet to win the tournament: Sweden (+650)
The odds imply Sweden has a 13.5% chance of winning the World Junior Championship. I think that is well short. The Swedes have what could be the most prolific line in the tournament, an elite defender in Edvinsson, a top-tier goaltender, and a ton of depth at every position.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We split our shot totals on Thursday night. Max Pacioretty posted his lowest shot total of the season, but, luckily, Joel Eriksson Ek came through for us.
We now sit at 76-61 (+13.56 units), heading into the weekend.
Jason Zucker over 2.5 shots on goal (+105)
Jason Zucker let us down last time out, but we're going right back to the well tonight. Zucker has been a consistent shot generator at home. He is just one shot back of Evan Rodrigues for the Penguins' team lead on home soil and has recorded at least three in 10 of the 14 games in Pittsburgh.
With an implied chance of 48.8%, there's a big edge in backing Zucker to go over the number, even more so when you factor in the top-tier spot he finds himself in.
On the road, the Sabres are dead-last in shots on goal against (per 60) at five-on-five this season. There are no personnel reasons to expect much improvement, especially in the latter half of a back-to-back.
Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots on goal (+115)
Roope Hintz has been one of our favorite targets all season, particularly when he's playing at home.
He's recorded three shots or more in 10 of his 12 games at American Airlines Center, averaging nearly 3.2 shots per contest compared to just 2.25 on the road.
It just so happens the Stars are at home tonight in a sneaky favorable matchup.
The Blues are typically a strong defensive team, but COVID-19 and injuries have taken some important players out of the lineup, and their numbers are trending downward as a result. At five-on-five, St. Louis ranks 28th in shots against per 60 over its last 10 games.
The Blues are giving up a substantial volume of shots, and Hintz is arguably the best bet to take advantage of that.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.