All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Thursday player props: 2 forwards to target

Our shot props have gone a little cold over the last couple days. Even so, we're still having a fantastic season. Our record sits at 110-90 for +15.31 units.

Let's dive into a couple of my favorite props as we look to get back on track.

Elias Lindholm over 2.5 shots on goal (-120)

Elias Lindholm is one of those guys with extreme home and away splits. On home soil, his shot volume is remarkably consistent. He's averaged 3.45 shots on goal and five shot attempts per game in Calgary. That's led to great success with his shot props, as he's gone over the number (2.5) in eight of 11 contests and fallen just one shot shy in two of the other three.

Beyond the Saddledome, it's a drastically different story. He's hit three shots in just eight of 22 away games, recording one shot or fewer eight different times. That's no coincidence, since he's averaged just 3.54 attempts per game on the road. The shot volume is not even in the same stratosphere.

Luckily for us, Lindholm is back at home and finds himself in a very juicy spot. The Ottawa Senators rank last in shot suppression on the road, and not just at five-on-five: They also allow shot attempts at a higher rate on the penalty kill than any other team.

They are a defensive mess. Tonight, they should be rusty as well; they're playing just their second game since Dec. 18.

I expect the Flames to dictate play and pile up the shots. Lindholm, their No. 1 pivot, should be at the forefront of the fun.

Patrick Kane over 3.5 shots on goal (-115)

Patrick Kane is a volume shooter and one of the best offensive talents in the NHL, and Thursday night, he's drawing the best matchup you could hope for.

The Montreal Canadiens are a horrendous team that's missing a plethora of players due to injuries and COVID-19. As such, they're getting railroaded on a regular basis - and bleeding shots in the process.

Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens rank last in shots on goal against per 60 minutes across all game states. Thursday's visit to the Chicago Blackhawks is the latter half of a road back-to-back, so there's not much reason to expect improvement.

Look for Kane to take advantage.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Playing pucklines

With a jam-packed 11-game slate on the docket, let's get right into our best bets.

Blue Jackets (+220) @ Hurricanes (-260)

I've been attacking the Columbus Blue Jackets a lot of late and the returns have been very strong. I'm going right back to the well Thursday with the Carolina Hurricanes.

Columbus is playing very poor hockey right now. The team controlled just 43% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the last 10 games.

By comparison, the Hurricanes rank first in the NHL during that time with a 60.73 xGF% at five-on-five. They should dominate the run of play and pile up chances, especially considering their star power and the ability to get advantageous matchups with last change.

I think the Hurricanes will take care of business with relative ease, especially if Columbus is missing important players. Blue Jackets head coach Brad Larsen mentioned a few things are up in the air - including the status of Jakub Voracek.

Bet: Hurricanes -1.5 (-110)

Kraken (+175) @ Blues (-210)

The Seattle Kraken are not a good hockey team. Their goaltending, surprisingly, has turned out to be the worst in the NHL, and they don't have nearly enough offensive firepower to compensate.

Even so, I think this line is a little extreme. The St. Louis Blues are a playoff-level squad, but they're not at their best right now. At five-on-five, they've controlled around 49% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. That's about average - certainly not anything to write home about.

Vladimir Tarasenko is not expected to play, and neither are David Perron and Brayden Schenn. That's a lot of top-six-caliber forwards out at one time.

Seattle's goaltending is unreliable, but the Kraken are not giving up much despite the consistently large goal totals. Wednesday night, for example, they conceded five goals to the Dallas Stars despite allowing only 25 shots and 2.32 expected goals.

In terms of goals saved above expectation, Chris Driedger is ahead of Philipp Grubauer by half a puck per game. He's more likely to keep the Kraken in the mix if they deserve to be. With this many key forwards out for the Blues, I think Seattle will be able to keep things close.

Bet: Kraken +1.5 (-135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Expect a low-scoring game in Dallas

Tuesday was another great success for our best bets. We went 2-0, pushing our record to 10-2 since last Monday.

We'll aim for another winning night as we attack this three-game slate.

Kraken (+160) @ Stars (-150)

Alright, it's time for the ultimate heat check. It's time to bet an under involving the Kraken.

Even though Seattle's offense isn't exactly potent, unders are a scary proposition due to the poor quality of its goaltending. Still, value is value and I see it on the under. Despite playing lifeless hockey, the Kraken give up very few chances, believe it or not.

At five-on-five, they rank 31st in high-danger chances per 60 minutes over the last 10 games, ahead of only the Sabres. On the flip side, Seattle ranks 3rd in high-danger chances against per 60.

The Stars also play pretty slow, defense-first hockey, so they won't pull the Kraken out of their comfort zone. At five-on-five, Dallas ranks eighth in high-danger chances against per 60 over the last 10.

When the team does give up a high-danger chance, it has Jake Oettinger (.923 save percentage) there to clean up the mess.

If Philipp Grubauer's performance isn't a complete disaster - a big if, I know - this game should stay under.

Bet: Under 6 goals (-125)

Morgan Rielly over 2.5 shots on goal (-115)

Rielly has shot the puck a lot lately, registering at least three shots in eight of the last 10 games.

His attempts per game in that span are around 0.5 higher than they were over his first 24 contests.

The Coyotes allow the most shots per game to defenders this season, making them a dream matchup. They concede 10.91 per game - the Senators (10.69) are the only other team giving up more than 10.2 per contest.

Arizona clearly lags behind the rest of the pack and I like Rielly to take advantage of that.

Bonus round: Mike Hoffman over 2.5 shots (-115). Hoffman consistently plays 18-19 minutes per game and we've seen an uptick in shots as a result. He recorded three shots or more in eight of the last 10 games. Even against a stingy Bruins team, I see value in this price.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: 3 shooters to target

Shot props are the gift that keeps on giving. We were one John Carlson shot away from a 4-0 night. Instead, we'll settle for a profitable 3-1 Monday that pushed the season record to 109-83 for +22.20 units.

Let's keep the ball rolling with these three shot totals.

Patrik Laine over 2.5 shots (-125)

Patrik Laine is known as a shoot-first player, and he has certainly been that since returning to the Columbus Blue Jackets' lineup.

He's recorded 17 shots on goal in five games (3.4 per game), which is tied for the team lead. Those impressive numbers aren't smoke and mirrors - Laine has been attempting a ton of shots. He has 35 in those five games, which is a good sign his strong outputs are sustainable.

Laine - like many offensive players - has done his best work when getting favorable matchups on home soil. He recorded three shots or more in six of his last eight and averaged four shots on goal over his last five games at Nationwide Arena.

The matchup is pretty enticing as well. The Chicago Blackhawks have been a below-average shot suppression team at five-on-five and, of late, they're bleeding shots while shorthanded. Laine's shot is a focal point of Columbus' power play, so he certainly stands to benefit.

Roman Josi over 3.5 shots (+115)

Roman Josi is a shot-generating machine. He's averaged a mouthwatering 4.6 shots on goal over the last 10 contests and has gone over the number (3.5) in seven of the last nine.

The Colorado Avalanche may not seem like a great team to target on paper, but they give up quite a bit to defensemen. They're bottom 10 in preventing shots and points from opposing blue-liners.

Crucially, the Avs have also been allowing a lot of shots while killing penalties. Only four teams have given up more attempts per 60 over the last 10 games.

Don't underestimate how important that is for Josi, the rare type of defenseman who leads his team in shot attempts and shots on goal while on the power play. The Nashville Predators captain stands to benefit greatly from Colorado's PK struggles.

Bonus round: Shea Theodore over 2.5 shots (-125). Theodore is scorching hot right now. He has registered 59 attempts and 31 shots on target over the last eight games. He has gone over 3.5 - yes 3.5 - in five straight. With key shooters like Max Pacioretty out of the Vegas Golden Knights' lineup, Theodore is one of the guys picking up the slack.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Penguins to rebound in Anaheim

The best bets continue to run hot. The Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins combined for nine goals Monday night, giving us a sweat-free victory on the over of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings also came through with a 3-1 win, pushing our best bets to 8-2 since last Monday.

Let's keep the streak going!

Penguins (-180) @ Ducks (+150)

The Pittsburgh Penguins are a true powerhouse. They've won 10 of their last 11 games and have dominated their opponents in the process, outscoring them 47-23 on aggregate. Additionally, they've controlled a league-leading 59.05% of the expected goals in that span.

Pittsburgh did this mostly without Jake Guentzel, who recently returned to the lineup. He'll be a difference-maker. So, too, will Evgeni Malkin. The dynamic pivot is expected to come back Tuesday, giving the Penguins a 1-2 punch down the middle that few teams - not the Anaheim Ducks - can match.

The Ducks are a nice story, but they don't hold a candle to the Penguins. That shows in the numbers. At five-on-five, Anaheim has controlled just 47.40% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. That's good for 23rd in the NHL, slotting the Ducks just behind a very mediocre Philadelphia Flyers team.

I think Pittsburgh will control the run of play at full strength. The Penguins will get more chances, and they have the firepower to make the most of them.

Not to mention, Pittsburgh has a real edge in goal. Tristan Jarry owns a .931 save percentage through 27 appearances and ranks seventh among all goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Average (+13.9).

While Anthony Stolarz has matched Jarry's save percentage, he lags well behind in GSAE per start (+0.251 for Stolarz, +0.519 for Jarry).

With edges across the board, the Penguins should be able to get back to their winning ways.

Bet: Penguins in regulation (-115)

Blackhawks (-115) @ Blue Jackets (-105)

This is hardly the most exciting game on the card, but value is value and I see it on the Chicago Blackhawks.

The Columbus Blue Jackets are playing truly horrendous defense right now. At five-on-five, they've allowed 35.32 shots on goal per 60 minutes over the last 10 games. That's good for dead last in the NHL during that span.

They haven't fared much better in the chance department. Columbus has conceded more than 30 chances per 60, ranking 27th in that span.

Making matters worse is the club's ineptitude on the penalty kill. No team has given up scoring chances at a higher rate while shorthanded during this spell of games.

Put simply, the Blue Jackets are one of the worst chance-suppression teams at even strength, and they grade out even worse while killing penalties.

That's not a recipe for success with Joonas Korpisalo (.886 save percentage) between the pipes, and it's not a recipe for success against stars like Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.

I expect Chicago to give Marc-Andre Fleury more than enough support in this game.

Bet: Blackhawks (-115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Kings to cook at home

What a week we had with our best bets. We posted a 6-2 record, only losing because the Penguins and Capitals blew 2-0 leads. Go figure.

We'll look for a strong start to the new week.

Rangers (-110) @ Kings (-110)

The Rangers are not playing good hockey right now. They've won five of the last 10 games - and that's probably overselling the quality of play we've seen.

Simply put, they're laboring at both ends of the rink. At five-on-five, they generated just 1.84 expected goals per 60 in that span. Only the Kraken - an injury-plagued expansion team - fared worse.

Things haven't been much better defensively: New York ranks 23rd in expected goals against per 60 over the last 10.

Since the team struggles to generate or prevent expected goals, it's no surprise that its share (41.18%) ranks dead last in the NHL.

The Rangers have stayed afloat mostly thanks to their goaltending. Igor Shesterkin's been a monster as usual, but he'll miss this matchup.

While Alexandar Georgiev's numbers are trending upward, Mikko Koskinen and Adin Hill are his closest competition in goals saved above expectation per start. That doesn't inspire confidence he can excel while the Rangers figure things out at five-on-five.

This is also a tough schedule spot for the Rangers, who play their third road game in five days. The Kings, meanwhile, haven't traveled since *checks notes* Dec. 19.

L.A. is rested, playing very well (fourth in xGF% over the last 10 games), and taking on a New York team missing arguably its most impactful player in Shesterkin. Even if star winger Artemi Panarin were to return, I'd still be comfortable backing the Kings.

Bet: Kings (-110)

Bruins (-110) @ Capitals (-110)

The Bruins and Capitals are rock-solid defensive teams. While you'd probably expect their games to be rather low-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case for a while.

Matchups between the two teams have gone over the number in seven of the last nine meetings. Those contests produced an average of 6.77 goals, with seven or more goals on five occasions.

There's a lot more than history leading me to this play, though. For one, Boston has been a scoring machine at five-on-five lately, ranking sixth in the league over the last 10 games.

I like the Bruins to stay hot against journeyman Zach Fucale. He's off to a good start in his NHL career, but he owns a sub-.900 save percentage in the AHL this season. As such, there isn't much reason to believe his strong play will continue.

The Capitals struggled to fill the net of late but I expect that to change sooner than later. They're fifth in the league in goals this season despite dealing with numerous injuries to key players like Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie - both of whom are expected back Monday.

With the firepower available on both sides, 5.5 seems too low of a total.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday player props: 2 shot totals to target in Washington

Whew, what a weekend! Shot props went 9-3 from Friday-Sunday, pushing my record to 106-82 for +20.26 units.

Let's stay hot and start the week on a high note with today's best bets.

Brad Marchand over 2.5 shots on goal (-130)

Death, taxes, and betting over on Brad Marchand shot totals. He's scorching-hot, having registered at least three shots on target in nine of the last 10 games.

Most nights, it's not even much of a sweat. Marchand has recorded four or more shots eight times in the last 10 while averaging 4.3 during that span.

His best work has come on home soil, but he's not exactly a slouch on the road. Marchand has registered four shots or more in six of his last eight games away from TD Garden.

The Washington Capitals are far from a preferred target - they're good at limiting shots - but Marchand has routinely recorded four or more since David Pastrnak was taken off his line. Three is a very achievable number regardless of the opponent.

Marchand has been very good to us, so we're going to ride the hot hand again in this one.

John Carlson over 2.5 shots on goal (-105)

John Carlson is another guy who's been featured prominently in this space of late, and for good reason!

Carlson has recorded three shots or more in seven of his last 10 games. He's averaged 6.3 attempts in that span, putting him behind only Alex Ovechkin on the Capitals.

Put another way, Carlson only needs to hit the target around half the time with the volume in which he's attempting shots.

I expect him to do just that in a matchup that's treated him surprisingly well over the years. Carlson has recorded three shots or more in eight of his last 11 games against the Boston Bruins.

At near even money, I'll happily take my chances and back him to do so once again.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Saturday best bets: Penguins’ winning streak to hit 11

We've absolutely crushed best bets this week, posting a 6-0 record with our picks.

Let's look to stay hot as we attack a very busy Saturday card.

Penguins (-130) @ Stars (+110)

The Penguins are firing on all cylinders and enter Saturday's game as the NHL's hottest side, having won their last 10 games.

In that span, they've outscored opponents 31-15 at five-on-five while controlling just under 59% of scoring chances. Complete dominance.

What's scary is that Pittsburgh did a lot of that undermanned - Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel only recently returned to the lineup. Another impact reinforcement is on the way, as Jeff Carter (17 points in 27 games) is expected back Saturday. Oh, and there's also a chance Evgeni Malkin makes his season debut.

Put simply, there's reason to believe this already elite Penguins team will get even better. That's a scary thought.

While the Stars aren't pushovers, I think they're clearly a tier below Pittsburgh. Dallas' five-on-five chance share is barely above 50% over the last 10 and it's been outscored.

The Penguins' hot streak won't last forever, but I like them to finish in the win column again today.

Bet: Penguins (-130)

Capitals (-110) @ Wild (-110)

The Capitals are in the latter half of a road back-to-back and playing without key players T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom. Still, it's easy to argue Washington enter this contest under much better circumstances than the Wild.

Minnesota's roster is a shell of its usual self. The Wild will be without their two best forwards (Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek), two best defensemen (Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin), and starting goaltender, Cam Talbot. That's not even covering all the bases: Regulars like Jordan Greenway and Nick Bjugstad are also on the shelf.

Injuries have really taken a toll on Minnesota. It controlled just 43.41% of expected goals over the last 10 games, which ranks 29th in the NHL - sandwiched between the Sabres and Canadiens.

Washington enjoyed great success while missing key players - it has points in seven of its last 10 games and ranks in the top 10 in xGF% over that spell.

Fatigued or not, I like the Capitals to pick up a win against this bruised and battered Wild team.

Bet: Capitals (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: 2 shot totals to attack

We have 11 games on tonight's NHL slate, which means there's a ton of value on the board.

Let's dive into some of my favorite shot totals.

Brad Marchand over 2.5 shots on goal (-140)

We've seen a big uptick in Marchand's shot volume lately. He recorded 57 shot attempts and 37 shots on goal over his last 10 games. He registered at least three shots in eight of the last nine, including four shots in seven of those games.

As I pointed out when I wrote up the Bruins forward in his last game, he's not just hitting the number - he's consistently finishing above it. He's also clearly a better individual shot generator when a volume shooter like David Pastrnak is off the top line.

I expect Marchand to go over again in an advantageous matchup with the Wild.

Minnesota has some key absences - especially on defense - that really hurt its level of play. Normally a stout defensive side, the Wild have given up five-on-five shots at a higher rate than all but one team over the last 10 games.

Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots on goal (-120)

Huberdeau has been a cheat code for what feels like months. After a slow start to the campaign in terms of shot generation, he's taken it up five notches.

He registered at least three shots on goal in 16 of the last 20 games - an 80% hit rate.

While I don't expect the Panthers forward to sustain that kind of shot productivity the entire season, I do like him to stay hot against the Stars - even in a mediocre matchup.

With Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart out of the lineup, Florida is missing two of its best weapons. Bennett's absence, in particular, leaves more shots up for grab, which Huberdeau generally claims.

Huberdeau recorded 15 shots in the three games Bennett missed over the last few months, hitting the over on each occasion.

Look for that trend to continue in Dallas.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Pens to stay hot vs. Flyers

We are off to a fantastic start to the week with our best bets, nailing both picks in consecutive days.

We'll look to stay hot as we attack this huge 11-game slate.

Penguins (-235) @ Flyers (+185)

The Philadelphia Flyers posted a respectable 5-3-2 record over their last 10 games, but they're not playing overly well. At five-on-five, Philadelphia ranks 25th in expected goals against and 31st in shot attempts against per 60 minutes.

Those numbers aren't good, and there's reason to believe they're about to get even worse for the Flyers. As if playing without their best forward (Sean Couturier) and best defenseman (Ryan Ellis) wasn't problematic enough, the team recently placed Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Ivan Provorov, and Travis Sanheim, among others, onto the COVID-19 list.

Philadelphia is now severely lacking in both star power and depth. That's far from ideal, especially against a team like the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Penguins own a remarkable 9-1-0 record over their last 10 games. Pittsburgh ranks in the top three in both shot share (56.42%) and expected goal share (58.29%) over this hot streak.

What's impressive is the Pens did a lot of that while missing key players. Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust just returned, and Jeff Carter may be back for Thursday's contest.

Pittsburgh is firing on all cylinders, and Philadelphia's key players are dropping like flies. I think this is a big mismatch, and - even in a back-to-back situation for the Penguins - I expect that to shine through.

Bet: Penguins inside regulation (-135)

Blue Jackets (+135) @ Devils (-160)

The Columbus Blue Jackets are in a really tough spot. They've won just three of their last 10 games and struggled mightily to defend in that time.

At five-on-five, the Blue Jackets sit 28th in expected goals against per 60 and dead last in shot attempts against per 60. They've fared no better on the penalty kill, conceding expected goals at a higher rate than all but the New York Islanders.

A lot of those numbers came with Zach Werenski in the lineup. Columbus put the star blue-liner onto the COVID-19 list ahead of the team's game Tuesday. His Blue Jackets certainly missed him as they gave up eight goals, 38 shots, and 77 shot attempts to the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The New Jersey Devils are not Tampa Bay's caliber. However, they've played better hockey of late, winning three of four on the back of a breakout from Jack Hughes (nine points in four games).

I expect Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and some of the Devils' top weapons to cause Columbus all kinds of problems in this game.

Bet: Devils inside regulation (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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