All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Thursday player props: 3 volume shooters to target

We have 20 teams in action this evening, which means there's no shortage of shot props.

Let's take a closer look at three of the totals that stand out.

Tyler Toffoli over 2.5 shots (-125)

Tyler Toffoli has been a shooting machine since he returned to the lineup. He's recorded at least three shots in four consecutive games, all of which were on the road against good teams. His hits came against the Dallas Stars, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, and Minnesota Wild. That's a pretty good crop of clubs to generate consistent volume against.

Now Toffoli finds himself back on home soil - where he'll get softer matchups - against an Anaheim Ducks side that's given up a lot of late.

They are 22nd in five-on-five shots against per 60 over the last 10 games and should be a little fatigued following an overtime game Wednesday night in Toronto.

Victor Hedman over 2.5 shots (-118)

Victor Hedman is 34 clear of Steven Stamkos for the team lead in shot attempts this season. Clearly, he puts a lot of rubber toward the net.

There are a couple of things working in his favor in this game. For one, the New Jersey Devils concede a lot of shots to defensemen. Only six teams give up more volume to defenders on a per game basis.

Nikita Kucherov's absence is also a bonus. Hedman's volume dropped when Kucherov returned, as he wasn't relied upon as heavily to contribute offensively. With Kucherov in COVID protocol, there's opportunity for Hedman to get more involved.

Chris Kreider over 2.5 shots (-139)

Chris Kreider is firing on all cylinders right now. He's scored in six consecutive games and registered at least three shots in seven of the last 10, falling just one short in all three exceptions.

He has piled up 42 shots on target and 59 attempts in that time, both of which lead the team.

Kreider now draws a mouth-watering matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. They have conceded more five-on-five shots per 60 than all but the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens over the last 10 games. They're also in the latter half of a back-to-back. I really don't see much reason to expect the screws to be tightened in this game.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Capitals to rebound at home

We have a relatively small five-game slate on the docket Wednesday, but there are a few plays that stand out.

We are mixing things up, providing a side, total, and shot prop for our best bets. Let's dive in.

Sharks (+175) @ Capitals (-210)

The San Jose Sharks are not a good road team. At five-on-five, they've controlled only 45.6% of the shot attempts and rank 19th in expected goals for percentage. Now they're without Erik Karlsson, by far their best play-driving defenseman.

That's not ideal, especially going up against a team like the Washington Capitals. They're in the top half of the league in points percentage on home soil and their underlying numbers have been remarkably good. Washington owns a 54.88 xGF% in their own building. Their share of the xG is very high, which is a recipe for success given all the firepower getting those opportunities.

I think the Capitals should be able to dictate the run of play at five-on-five and take advantage of James Reimer.

The veteran Sharks netminder started the season strongly but his level of play has fallen off a cliff. He owns a .878 save percentage since Dec. 1. That ties him for 48th among 54 eligible goaltenders. Not great!

To recap, Washington is the better five-on-five team, they're at home, and they're going up against a struggling netminder. I like their chances of taking care of business inside 60.

Bet: Capitals in regulation (-135)

Flames (-180) @ Blue Jackets (+150)

The Calgary Flames and Columbus Blue Jackets have had a difficult time keeping the puck out of the net of late. Yet it's the under that appeals to me in this game.

For one, Elvis Merzlikins is getting the nod in goal for the home side. He owns a respectable .912 save percentage on the season and has saved 3.8 more goals than expected. He's a huge upgrade over Joonas Korpisalo (.881 SV%, -8 goals saved above expectation) and gives me faith Columbus can keep Calgary to a reasonable number in this game.

The Flames have also defended much better than their recent numbers indicate. They rank 12th in high-danger chances allowed per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games. Despite that, they sit 30th in goals against per 60.

On the year, Jacob Markstrom and Daniel Vladar have combined to save 8.2 more goals than expected. They make up an above-average goaltending tandem. Regardless of who starts here, I think the Flames are bound to do a better job of limiting the goals against sooner than later - so long as they continue to be an above-average side in terms of preventing high-danger opportunities.

I don't think that'll be an issue Wednesday against a Blue Jackets team below average at generating said opportunities.

Bet: Under 6 (+105)

Tyler Bertuzzi over 2.5 shots (-125)

Tyler Bertuzzi is not a guy we've targeted much this year but he's been shooting the puck more of late, especially on home soil. He's accumulated 25 shots over the last eight home dates, which equates to a little more than three per night.

This is a good spot for his success to continue. The Chicago Blackhawks have allowed 61.16 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play over the last 10 games. That ranks them 29th in the league during this spell. They're really struggling defensively and they won't have the ability to get the matchups they want.

Instead, the Detroit Red Wings will have the ability to put their best players in advantageous positions and Bertuzzi is a guy who will benefit. I also like that he no longer plays on a line with Dylan Larkin. He's spearheading his own unit, meaning there's more puck to go around.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: 2 forwards to back at home

We have a full slate of games on the docket tonight, which means the return of shot props.

Let's dive into a couple of my favorite targets to back.

Mark Scheifele over 2.5 shots (-118)

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NHL. On the surface, they don't seem like a side you want to target. Quite the contrary, as they play such fast-paced, high-event hockey that players can routinely hit the number against them even in losing efforts.

Believe it or not, only four teams have allowed a higher rate of five-on-five shots over the last 10 games: the Canadiens, Sabres, Blue Jackets, and Blues. Yeah, Florida is in that territory.

Kyle Connor is the obvious target, but you have to pay a hefty price to back him. As such, Scheifele is arguably the top option.

Scheifele ranks second on the Jets in shot attempts over the last 10 games, resulting in him averaging 3.4 shots on goal per contest.

I like him to stay hot and go over the number once again in what should be a high-event affair.

Teuvo Teravainen over 2.5 shots (-118)

You want to avoid Teravainen on the road as he's generated three shots or more just eight times in 19 tries, a 42% success rate.

It's a much different story when games are played in Carolina, where the coaching staff can put him in advantageous matchups. Teravainen has registered at least three shots 12 times in 18 home games, a 66% hit rate.

With implied odds of just 54%, I see a definite edge backing Teravainen on home soil. The fact that the Golden Knights are playing in the latter half of a road back-to-back only makes the pick more enticing.

Not to mention, Vegas is of the worst teams at preventing shot attempts while shorthanded - and Teravainen does a lot of his damage on the power play.

There's a lot to like with him tonight.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL weekend preview: Goals galore

We have a busy weekend ahead on the ice with 19 games over the next couple of days - eight on Friday night and 11 on Saturday.

Let's highlight some of the bets that stick out.

Panthers (-200) @ Canucks (+180)
Jan. 21, 10 p.m. ET

Goals follow the Panthers. Their dynamic offense can keep up with anybody, and that's no exaggeration. Florida leads the NHL in goals with 164.

The Panthers' style of play welcomes a track meet - especially when Spencer Knight is between the pipes. The highly-touted prospect has struggled to find his footing at the NHL level, owning a putrid .893 save percentage while conceding at least three goals in seven of his last nine starts.

Put simply, they tend to be high-event games when Knight is in net. The Panthers have to give him a handful of goals to have a realistic shot at winning.

Even in a back-to-back, I don't think that'll be much of an issue tonight. Thatcher Demko, one of the league's hottest goaltenders, isn't available due to a positive COVID-19 test. The same can be said of backup goaltender Jaroslav Halak.

As such, the Canucks will have to turn to their third-string netminder against the highest-scoring team in the NHL. That doesn't seem ideal.

While not having J.T. Miller (COVID-19 protocol) hurts Vancouver's offense, it still has the pieces to contribute and put at least a couple behind Knight.

I see fireworks in this one.

Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-120)

Flames (+105) @ Oilers (-125)
Jan. 22, 10 p.m. ET

Both sides are limping into this crucial Battle of Alberta. The Flames have dropped four of the last five games, being outscored by nine goals in that span.

They've won only won three of their last 10 overall but somehow enter this contest on a higher note than the Oilers. That's crazy, I know. Edmonton has won just two of its last 10 games.

As easy as it'd be to pile on the narrative that both teams are playing like garbage, the reality is each side probably deserves better.

Calgary, for example, ranks fifth in high-danger chances per minute over the last 10 games. The Flames are generating great opportunities in bulk but struggle to put them in the back of the net. Unfortunately, goaltending hasn't been able to mask those struggles. An unsustainably low PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) of 0.955 makes them look worse than they actually are.

It's a similar story for the Oilers. Shockingly, their five-on-five PDO over the same period is ... 0.956.

They have controlled nearly 54% of the expected goals during this rough spell - putting them seventh in the NHL, sandwiched between the Panthers and Penguins. Their best players just haven't finished, while the goaltending has made matters worse.

At some point, these offenses are going to break out. Both teams feature a few dynamic stars up top, so the shooting woes aren't going to last forever, especially going up against struggling netminders.

I'm going to bank on some regression kicking in and this game going over the number.

Bet: Over 6 goals (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: 3 forwards to target

We're in for a very busy night on the ice with nine games scheduled. Let's break things down and get right into the best way to attack the slate through shot props.

Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots (-120)

You all know the story by now: Tage Thompson is a pedestrian shot generator on the road and flat-out elite at home. His splits are as crazy as any player in the league.

On home soil, Thompson prints us money. The Buffalo Sabres winger has averaged 3.9 shots on goal and registered at least three shots in 16 of 19 contests - that's an 84% hit rate.

Thompson averages 2.1 shots per game on the road, which is barely over half of what he generates in Buffalo. He has gone over the number only five times in 17 road dates for a success rate of just 29%.

The Dallas Stars are a solid defensive team, but they can get outplayed on the road. The Stars allow four more shots per game when they aren't on home ice and getting the matchups they want on a shift-to-shift basis.

Expect Thompson to benefit from that.

Mark Scheifele over 2.5 shots (-115)

The Nashville Predators are a very good squad, but their defense hasn't been nearly as stout lately. The Preds have allowed 35.43 shots per game over the last 10, ranking them 27th in the NHL. Not great!

Mark Scheifele is definitely known as more of a passer than a shooter, but he is putting a lot of rubber towards the net right now for the Winnipeg Jets. Scheifele has amassed 53 shot attempts and 35 shots on goal over the last 10 and has recorded at least three shots in seven of the last nine. In the only two exceptions, he fell just one shot short.

With an increased shooting mentality and a divisional matchup against a Nashville side that's bleeding shots, I like Scheifele to go over the number for us.

Jared McCann over 2.5 shots (-130)

The Seattle Kraken are where shots go to die - they don't allow many, and they don't take many. Jared McCann is the exception to the rule.

McCann has piled up at least three shots in 17 of the last 26 contests (65%), including seven of the last 10.

The left-winger has averaged 3.4 shots per game in that span and has recorded nine more shot attempts than the closest teammate to him (Jordan Eberle). McCann, who has 15 goals through 33 games, is clearly Seattle's best scoring threat, and they feed him shots accordingly.

The San Jose Sharks are a mediocre shot suppression club, and their numbers are trending downwards. San Jose is not a side we have to shy away from attacking.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Stars to stomp Sabres

We have a full slate of games to work through tonight, with nine games scheduled to go.

That leaves us plenty of meat on the bone when looking for best bets. Let's get into a couple of my favorites.

Capitals (+155) @ Bruins (-175)

The Bruins and Capitals are both strong defensive teams - elite, even. Boston concedes only 2.0 expected goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which is the lowest rate in the NHL. Washington allows 2.26 per 60, slotting it sixth. Both of these teams can defend with the best.

Yet, for whatever reason, they find themselves in track meet after track meet when squaring off against one another.

Bruins versus Capitals games have gone over the number in seven of their last 10 meetings, with an average of 7.1 goals scored on a per-game basis.

Scoring hasn't been nearly as big of a problem for Boston since it put David Pastrnak on the second line, giving the lineup much more balance.

Meanwhile, the Capitals are in the top 10 in goals per game despite dealing with an abundance of injuries to key players all season long. Nicklas Backstrom has missed 33 games, Anthony Mantha has missed 30, and T.J. Oshie has missed 22 - and it hasn't really mattered.

Don't be surprised if we see fireworks in this game; we usually do between these two teams.

Bet: Over 6 goals (+100)

Stars (-200) @ Sabres (+170)

We have frequently targeted the Sabres for months now, and it has led to plenty of success. While they hurt us last time out, that's not going to scare us away. This team is bad - very bad.

Buffalo has been out-chanced by 117 over the last 10 games. That's an average of 11.7 per game. Their share of the chances (39.27%) is tied for the lowest in the league in that span, putting them on the same level as the Canadiens.

On the flip side, the Stars have a +36 chance differential over the last 10 games. That's not an astronomical number, but their 53% share ranks them 11th over that span, slotting them just ahead of the Penguins and Golden Knights. That's pretty good.

It's almost a certainty the Stars will dominate the chance share in this game. They're the much better team, and they're coming off three straight losses, including one to Montreal. They're going to come out hungry, and I don't think the Sabres will be able to match them in skill or intensity.

That wouldn't be the end of the world if Buffalo had quality goaltending, but it doesn't. Its tandem currently consists of Aaron Dell (.892 save percentage) and Michael Houser - a journeyman that has played more ECHL games than NHL games this season.

I don't think either will be able to hold up against what will likely be 40+ shots from a good team. Back the Stars to take care of business in 60 minutes.

Bet: Stars inside regulation (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Back Capitals, Senators at home

We have a pretty full plate tonight as 16 sides will be in action.

Let's take a closer look at the best way to attack this slate.

Jets (+115) @ Capitals (-135)

I think the Winnipeg Jets are getting a little too much respect in this spot. They've controlled just over 48% of the expected goals over their last 10 games (at five-on-five), and their share of high-danger chances (46.83%) is even lower, sandwiching them between the Montreal Canadiens and Arizona Coyotes. That's not a great place to be.

Even with some key players in and out of the lineup, the Washington Capitals have been better. They've controlled nearly 51% of the expected goals and they rank just one spot behind the Nashville Predators in high-danger chance share.

The Capitals also have home-ice advantage, which is a nice little bonus. The Jets have won just seven of their 17 road games thus far and won't be able to get the matchups they want against Alex Ovechkin - arguably the game's best finisher.

Bet: Capitals (-135)

Sabres (+170) @ Senators (-200)

The Buffalo Sabres are playing truly horrendous hockey. They've won just two of their last 10 games, and frankly, those results might be generous.

At five-on-five, they've controlled 43% of the shot attempts and an unfathomable 38% of the expected goals. Put another way, opponents are generating about two expected goals for each one Buffalo creates. Abysmal.

While the Ottawa Senators aren't exactly world-beaters, they're on a different planet than this version of the Sabres. Ottawa has controlled 47.4% of the expected goals, good for 21st in the NHL during this same period of play.

The Sens are at home and fully rested, having barely played over the last month. It's a much different situation for the Sabres, who are in a back-to-back and playing their third game in four nights.

I expect the Senators to take care of business with relative ease.

Bet: Senators in regulation (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Stanley Cup odds update: Avs, Panthers leading the pack

We're almost exactly halfway through the 2021-22 season. For some teams - like the Anaheim Ducks - we are exactly halfway through the campaign.

With enough of a sample size to have a proper evaluation of teams, we can separate the contenders from the pretenders.

We'll do just that as we look at the current Stanley Cup odds, identifying the best buys and sells in the market.

TEAM ODDS (Jan. 17) ODDS (Nov. 29)
Colorado Avalanche +500 +625
Florida Panthers +800 +850
Tampa Bay Lightning +800 +850
Vegas Golden Knights +800 +900
Toronto Maple Leafs +900 +1100
Carolina Hurricanes +1200 +1200
Minnesota Wild +1500 +1400
Washington Capitals +1600 +2000
Boston Bruins +1800 +1400
Pittsburgh Penguins +1800 +2800
Calgary Flames +2000 +2400
Edmonton Oilers +2000 +1200
New York Rangers +2000 +2500
St. Louis Blues +2500 +2400
Dallas Stars +3500 +3500
Anaheim Ducks +4000 +7500
Winnipeg Jets +4000 +3000
Nashville Predators +4500 +5500
New York Islanders +6000 +2200
Vancouver Canucks +9000 +10000
Los Angeles Kings +10000 +6000
Chicago Blackhawks +15000 +10000
Columbus Blue Jackets +15000 +10000
Detroit Red Wings +15000 +10000
New Jersey Devils +15000 +6000
Philadelphia Flyers +15000 +4000
San Jose Sharks +15000 +7000
Montreal Canadiens +20000 +10000
Seattle Kraken +20000 +10000
Buffalo Sabres +30000 +15000
Ottawa Senators +30000 +15000
Arizona Coyotes +100000 +50000

Buy

Colorado Avalanche (+500)

This isn't a "fun" pick, but sometimes you have to eat the chalk, and backing the Avalanche might be one of those times. They've dealt with a plethora of injuries and COVID issues all season long. You could probably count on one hand the number of games they've played with all of their key guys in the lineup. Yet they lead the league with 4.25 goals per game. Colorado has a ton of firepower up front, its blue line is loaded, and this team attacks you with a level of speed that's essentially unmatched. If Darcy Kuemper can get on track between the pipes, the sky is the limit here.

Florida Panthers (+800)

I'm not sure why the Panthers aren't getting more love in the betting market. They lead the league in points percentage and goals, and they're a hair behind the Maple Leafs for first in expected goals for percentage. Their top six is as potent as anybody's, they have scoring depth all throughout the lineup, and the defense - led by Aaron Ekblad and Mackenzie Weegar - is in very good shape. I know some - myself included - have questioned the team's goaltending, but the Panthers rank 13th in save percentage. So long as they can get average netminding, they have what it takes to go on a long run.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+1800)

The Penguins are third in the NHL in wins over the last 25 games. They rank in the top 10 in almost every five-on-five metric available during that span, including their Corsi share, expected goals, and actual goals. They're an elite penalty-killing side, and with Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Co. back in the mix, we might soon be able to say the same about their power play. They're garnering fantastic results at both ends of the ice, and Tristan Jarry (sixth in Goals Saved Above Expected) has proven capable of bailing the Penguins out whenever necessary. Like Colorado, Pittsburgh has been without key players all season long and the team is still piling up the wins. I don't think the Penguins are getting enough respect.

Sell

Edmonton Oilers (+2000)

What. A. Waste. The Oilers look more like a bubble team than a contender despite having two of the league's most dynamic talents on their roster. To put things into perspective, they have just one more win than the Coyotes over the last 25 games. Edmonton has next to no depth, its goaltending is inconsistent, and the team has issues behind the bench. That's the only explanation for not having one (1) win this season when trailing after 20 minutes. The Oilers are 0-12-2 in such situations. Only one other team - the Flames - is winless when losing after 20, but they've had six fewer tries. Calgary is also a structured, defense-first side that doesn't feature game-breakers the caliber of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Oilers are broken.

Dallas Stars (+3500)

The Stars aren't a great hockey team. Heck, they might not be a good one. At five-on-five, they've controlled only 49% of the expected goals over the last 25 games. They've been outscored in that time. Oh, and one of their top players - John Klingberg - wants out. This team has one and done written all over it - if Dallas even makes the playoffs.

New York Islanders (+6000)

These odds are ugly, and yet I think they're still too generous to the Islanders. Forget winning the Stanley Cup - this team will be lucky to make the playoffs. New York's odds of qualifying are below 10%. Sure, the Islanders have a few games in hand on the Bruins. But they're 18 points behind. 18! I don't know if they can outperform a mediocre team by 18 points the rest of the season, let alone one with as much talent as the Bruins. Simply put, a team that'll miss the playoffs more than nine times out of 10 shouldn't be given a nearly 2% implied probability of winning the Stanley Cup.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Coyotes to howl at home

We have a full slate of games to comb through on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. As a result, we're going to give out standard best bets *and* shot props, something that is yet to happen on a Monday.

Let's get into it.

Kings (-115) @ Sharks (-105)

The Los Angeles Kings are playing some truly fantastic hockey right now. They've won seven of the last 10 games and have controlled a whopping 57.68% of the expected goals at five-on-five in that span. Only the Vegas Golden Knights and Boston Bruins have fared better in that regard.

While the Kings aren't overflowing with high-end talent and natural finishing, their ability to control such a large share of the expected goals has made them a very difficult team to beat, especially considering how good their goaltending is.

Jonathan Quick has turned back the clock this season, saving 18.1 goals above expectation thus far. That ranks third in the NHL.

His platoon partner, Cal Petersen, leads all goaltenders in five-on-five save percentage since the beginning of December. It doesn't matter who the Kings start - they're consistently getting great goaltending.

Combine that with the fact they're outchancing their opponent on a nightly basis, and it's not hard to see why they're piling up the wins.

The San Jose Sharks aren't pushovers, but I see a few edges for the Kings in this game. L.A. is better at controlling the run of play, and the team also has much better goaltending.

James Reimer is expected back in the lineup Monday. That would've been big news a couple of months ago. But Reimer has really struggled, posting a .899 save percentage over the last two months.

The Kings should get more of the chances in this game. Given the difference in the caliber of goaltender - regardless of who starts - I expect that to be enough for them to pull out another win.

Bet: Kings (-115)

Canadiens (-105) @ Coyotes (-115)

It's not every day you want to back the Arizona Coyotes - let alone as favorites - but that's what this situation calls for.

The Montreal Canadiens are awful. They've won one of their previous 10 games and have scored fewer five-on-five goals than all but the Anaheim Ducks in that time. They're consistently outchanced and rarely convert on the opportunities they do get.

The Coyotes aren't a lethal offensive team, but they'll be aided by Montreal starter Sam Montembeault. On average, he's given up 0.53 goals more than expected on a per-start basis. Only seven goaltenders to play even semi-regularly have been worse.

Karel Vejmelka, by comparison, has conceded only 1.3 goals more than expected through 21 appearances. That's -0.07 GSAE per start.

With a big edge in goal, and home ice, I think Arizona is priced a little too short here.

Shot props

Tage Thompson over 2.5 shots on goal (-130) vs. the Detroit Red Wings - Thompson has been lethal on home soil this season, averaging 3.9 shots on goal per game and going over the total of 2.5 shots in 15 of 18 contests. The Red Wings bleed shots, so I don't expect them to be one of the rare sides that can limit Thompson in Buffalo.

Nazem Kadri over 3.5 shots on goal (+120) vs. the Minnesota Wild - Kadri has been a shooting machine of late, recording at least four shots on goal in 12 of his last 18 games (66% hit rate). The Wild are struggling on the defensive side of things as a byproduct of all their injuries. Believe it or not, they rank 30th in attempts against per 60 over the last 10. I like Kadri in this spot, especially at such juicy odds.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Friday player props: 3 forwards to back

We only have three games to work with tonight. While not much pops off the page in terms of sides or totals, a few shot props appeal to me.

Let's break them down.

Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots on goal (-125)

Jonathan Huberdeau lives for home games. The Florida Panthers forward registered at least three shots in 13 of his last 15 in Sunrise and has averaged 3.6 shots over his last 10 home dates.

By comparison, Huberdeau recorded fewer than three shots in nine of 14 games (64%) on the road and generated only 2.1 shots per game in those contests.

There's a huge discrepancy between his shot volume at home and on the road. While the Dallas Stars are a strong defensive team, Huberdeau recently hit against quality sides like the Calgary Flames and Tampa Bay Lightning. The opponent hasn't mattered as much as the location of the game.

I like Huberdeau to get it done again tonight.

Kevin Fiala over 3.5 shots on goal (+105)

Kevin Fiala has piled up 43 shots on goal and 64 shot attempts over his last 10 home dates. He leads the team - yes, he's even ahead of Kirill Kaprizov and Ryan Hartman - in both categories.

Fiala has been very successful on home soil all season long, going over the number in nine of 15 games (60%) and registering at least three shots in 14 of 15. He's hitting at a good rate and coming within striking distance almost every night.

I expect no different against the Anaheim Ducks on Friday. They've been a pleasant surprise this season, but it's not because of their shot-suppression abilities - especially not on the road. They're 23rd in shots against per road contest this season.

Look for Fiala to take advantage.

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots on goal (+110)

I know, I know. It's a big number. But hear me out: Nathan MacKinnon has registered at least five shots on goal in nine of his last 10 home games. He's averaged 6.3 shots in that span and a whopping 7.6 over his last five.

With Gabriel Landeskog out, a bit more of the offensive load falls on MacKinnon's shoulders. He is also in a great spot against an Arizona Coyotes team that really struggles to defend. They gave up 46 shots to the Toronto Maple Leafs last time out (five to Auston Matthews, four to John Tavares; the star centers popped) and I expect a similar performance against this powerhouse Colorado Avalanche team.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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