With just four games on the board Friday, there isn't much that stands out to me in the way of sides or totals. Luckily, there's value to be had with shot totals.
Let's dive into a couple of my favourites.
Jordan Eberle over 2.5 shots (-112)
Jordan Eberle is shooting the puck a lot right now. He leads all Seattle Kraken forwards in shot attempts (50) and scoring chances (34) over the last 10 games.
While that hasn't led to sustained success in terms of going over the number - he's done so five times in that span - the increase in shot volume should serve him well Friday against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Ducks aren't playing good defense. At five-on-five, they rank 29th in high-danger chances allowed per 60 over the last 10 games. They grade out even worse when it comes to shot suppression. Only the Buffalo Sabres and Columbus Blue Jackets have conceded five-on-five shots at a higher rate over the last 10.
With Eberle taking a lot of shots, and the Ducks giving up a lot of shots, I see real value backing Eberle at this price.
Mathew Barzal over 2.5 shots (+100)
Mathew Barzal is somewhat of an inconsistent shooter because of the methodical, low-event style the New York Islanders play. I really like him in this spot, though.
The Edmonton Oilers are a leaky defensive team, and they give up quite a bit to opposing centers. Only the Arizona Coyotes and Montreal Canadiens have conceded more goals to the position, which is no coincidence considering they're a subpar side at preventing shots from centers.
For whatever reason, Barzal has also been a much more efficient shooter on the road. He's generated at least three shots 10 times in 17 road dates (59%), including seven of the last 10.
Priced at a coin flip, there's an edge to be had here.
Wait and see:Connor McDavidunder 3.5 shots (-112). McDavid is averaging just over 10 shot attempts per 60 minutes alongside Evander Kane, which is his lowest number with any teammate this season. Kane is an extreme shoot-first player and really limits McDavid's ceiling in that regard. If Kane remains on a line with McDavid on Friday, I like the under once again. I'd like it even more so considering the Islanders are among the league's best teams at taking the middle of the ice away and preventing shots from centermen.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Shot props were good to us Tuesday night as we hit on both picks. Jesper Bratt registered three shots in Montreal, while Connor McDavid failed to reach four against the stingy Vegas Golden Knights.
We'll look to keep the ball rolling with another pair of winners Wednesday night.
Matt Duchene over 2.5 shots (-125)
On a team with volume shooters such as Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg, it's Matt Duchene leading the way in shots over the last 10 games. He's picked up 37 shots on target (3.7 per game) in that span while attempting 61. Very potent numbers.
The Dallas Stars are a good defensive team, but their play has dipped a little of late. They've allowed 31.73 shots on goal per 60 minutes of five-on-five play over the last 10, which slots them 23rd in the NHL. They're not a team you have to avoid right now, especially when backing a player shooting as much as Duchene.
I don't think these odds are low enough for someone with a 60% hit rate on the season and a 70% hit rate over the last 10 games.
Jordan Eberle over 2.5 shots (+100)
Backing anyone on the Seattle Kraken to contribute anything offensively, including shots, is a scary proposition. But this is the spot to do it.
The Arizona Coyotes are a complete disaster. They bring out the best in their opponent seemingly every night. They're among the worst shot-suppression teams at five-on-five and, over the last 10, no team has allowed shots at a higher rate while killing penalties.
Jordan Eberle should be the primary beneficiary of that Wednesday. He leads the Kraken in shots on goal (25), scoring chances (31), and shot attempts (48) over the last 10 home dates. He's also among the leaders in power-play attempts.
These odds seem very fruitful for a fairly consistent shooter in a smash spot against a bad defensive team in a back-to-back situation.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
Tuesday was a rough one on the ice. An empty-netter spoiled our under in the Boston game, while the Minnesota Wild saw their 10-game point streak come to an end against the struggling Winnipeg Jets. Go figure!
The great thing about sports is you can get right back on the horse the very next day. We'll look to do just that with our best bets for Wednesday's slate.
The Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars both possess firepower at the top half of their rosters. However, they're still defense-first teams. That's been evident in their meetings over the last couple of seasons.
The Predators and Stars have gone head-to-head eight times since the beginning of the 2020-21 campaign. Five of those games featured fewer than 20 high-danger chances, while 23 was the high. Unsurprisingly, a lack of Grade A chances led to low expected goal outputs. They combined to go over five expected goals just once.
I don't see either team forcing the other out of its comfort zone and turning this into a track meet. This game should go under the number, barring poor goaltending. Luckily, that's not a big cause for concern.
Juuse Saros has been amazing this season. He owns a .927 save percentage and has saved 19.8 goals above expectation, which is the third-highest output in the NHL.
Jake Oettinger's play hasn't been as consistent, but, in the aggregate, he's performed fairly well. He's sporting a respectable .912 save percentage and is above ground in terms of goals saved above expectation.
Dallas is fighting for a playoff spot, while Nashville is within striking distance for the top spot in the Central. This game is big for both sides. We should see a close, tight-checking affair.
The Calgary Flames have won three in a row, and their underlying numbers are as good as anyone's over the last 10 games. At home, against a Vegas Golden Knights team playing in a back-to-back situation, we have to go back to the Flames, right? Not so fast.
As much as I like the Flames, I think the odds are a little out of line here. Vegas is playing very good defensive hockey right now. At five-on-five, the Golden Knights sit inside the top five in attempts against per 60 over their last 10 games.
They also have a higher offensive ceiling than the Flames. Chances are great, of course, but they're not as important if you don't have dangerous weapons taking them. The top of Calgary's roster is very gifted, but the team is shallow in the way of natural finishing.
Even without Jack Eichel, scoring is not a problem for the Golden Knights. They've dealt with an overwhelming amount of injuries and COVID-19 cases this season, and yet they still sit second in the NHL in five-on-five goals. Calgary's top dogs can match Vegas', but the Golden Knights have more scoring punch from their second line down.
I think that'll be a factor in this game. While playing in a back-to-back isn't ideal for Vegas, the whole league is coming off an extended break. So, I'm not sure it's as big of a deal as it normally would be. The Golden Knights should be ready to roll.
Bet: Golden Knights (+115)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The men's tournament begins in just two days. While the NHL disappointingly - yet understandably - chose not to send its players to the Olympics, there'll still be plenty of familiar names participating.
Let's look at how the tournament is shaping up and what we can expect from each team.
Nation
Odds
Russia OC
+150
Finland
+395
Canada
+700
Sweden
+700
Czechia
+1100
Switzerland
+1500
USA
+1700
Germany
+2000
Slovakia
+5000
Denmark
+10000
Latvia
+10000
China
+25000
Russia is favored in this tournament, and for good reason. The Russians are icing a veteran-heavy team with an abundance of players who have played games in the NHL. They have plenty of skill up front, with the likes of Nikita Gusev, Vadim Shipachyov, and Mikhail Grigorenko leading the charge. Arseni Gritsyuk is in the midst of a breakout season in the KHL and is a wild card to provide some real scoring pop.
Russia's defensive core looks to be in good shape as well. Including Slava Voynov, four defensemen have spent time in the NHL.
I don't see many weaknesses on this roster, and the fact many of them have played together in the KHL should allow Russia to hit the ground running. For example, there are seven players from CSKA Moscow.
Many see Finland as the team most likely to give Russia a run for its money, and it's easy to see why. The Finns feature plenty of former NHLers in their lineup, including Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov, and Markus Granlund. They also have Sami Vatanen heading the defense. This team probably won't score a ton of goals, but they'll play structured and responsible hockey. That'll allow them to stay in every game they play - even against more high-powered opponents.
I'm not sure Canada is getting enough respect in this market. The Canadians have a nice mix of former NHLers trying to fight their way back into the league (Eric Staal, Josh Ho-Sang, etc.) and impact prospects close to making their mark as professionals (Owen Power, Mason McTavish). It might take a little time for this team to gel and for the coaching staff to find everyone's optimal role, but there's enough talent for them to make noise in this tournament. This will be a scrappy and motivated group.
Sweden will be stung by a lack of NHL players. The Swedens don't have as deep of a talent pool to pick from as a team like Canada, and they don't have the luxury of stacking former NHLers who have familiarized themselves with one another from playing together - a la Russia. Sweden's best hope for a medal is for its goaltending to get hot and allow them to slip by some more talented teams.
Czechia has real potential to surprise in this tournament. The Czechs might well have the best player in David Krejci, who just last season was a near point-per-game player with the Boston Bruins. The team has some others with NHL experience as well, including long underrated two-way winger Michael Frolik. The big question mark is in goal. If Czechia's goaltending can hold up against some of the stiffer opponents, it can make a real run.
What Switzerland lacks in raw talent it could make up for in teamwork, structure, and familiarity. Like Russia, the Swiss have stacked guys who play for the same club. That should lead to less of an adjustment period than most countries. Their best hope of surprising in this tournament is playing smart, low-event games and squeezing out just enough offense to get by.
The U.S. is following a similar formula as Canada. It doesn't have as much talent in the way of former NHLers, but the lineup does feature a few high-end prospects. Matty Beniers and Jake Sanderson were both high first-round picks, while Matthew Knies looks like one of the steals of the 2021 NHL Draft. The hope is that those kids can provide some game-breaking ability while the rest of the veterans scratch and claw their way through games. However, goaltending is a significant question mark.
Germany might not medal, but it will be competitive. With Dominik Kahun and Tobias Rieder headlining the forward group, the Germans have some speed and scoring ability that can threaten opponents, plus a big, rangy defense that could provide some physicality to keep opponents to the outside. They also have one of the more underrated goaltenders in Mathias Niederberger, who I think deserves the bulk of the workload. Germany will be a tough out.
Slovakia looks thin on paper. The team will be relying on former NHL top prospects Marko Dano and Tomas Jurco to provide offense, while 17-year-old blue-liner Simon Nemec will get his first taste of big-stage hockey. I don't know how much of an impact he'll be able to make right now - it's a lot to ask of a kid - but the experience should serve him well. He's the future of Slovakian hockey.
Generally, Denmark is a team built around team speed, but I'm not sure it'll have much success playing that way in this tournament. The roster is aged, with eight forwards 32 or older. Mikkel Boedker (32), Frans Nielsen (37), and Co. have put together strong careers, but they just don't have the speed or skill to make plays at a high level anymore. This team will struggle.
The Latvians are a hard-working team that relies on effort plays and goaltending to grind out wins. They might well steal a game unexpectedly, but I don't think they have the horses to enjoy sustained success playing the way they do.
Lastly, we have China, who'll be hard-pressed to win a game. The hope is that team familiarity - every player's home club is HC Kunlun Red Star - will allow the team to be more than the sum of its parts. Spencer Foo, Brandon Yip, and Ryan Sproul are probably China's best bets to produce some much-needed offense.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The NHL is back! While there are only a couple of games on tonight's schedule, there is still plenty of value on the board, particularly with shot props.
Let's look at the best way to attack this slate.
Mitch Marner over 2.5 shots (-125)
Mitch Marner has picked things up as a shooter since returning to the lineup. He has attempted 40 shots over a seven-game span. Of those attempts, 27 hit the net. That's good for an average of 3.86 shots on goal per contest.
Considering the success he's enjoyed as a shooter - he scored in all seven games - Marner should have the confidence to continue firing pucks on net whenever he has the chance.
The Carolina Hurricanes are a strong defensive team, but I'm not going to be scared away here. Marner's shot volume is rising, he routinely plays 20 minutes a night, and he'll get cushier usage on home soil. Oh, and Sheldon Keefe should have no problem leaning on his best players, given they just had a handful of days off to rest and recover.
Jesper Bratt over 2.5 shots (-118)
Jesper Bratt has skated on a line with Jack Hughes for a while now. With Hughes in COVID-19 protocol, I think the natural reaction is to lower your expectations for Bratt offensively. That may not be a good idea, at least in terms of his ability to pile up shots.
The reality is Bratt has been a much more prolific shooter when away from Hughes. Bratt averages a little more than 12 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Hughes on his line. Without Hughes? It's a different story. Bratt generates more than 17 attempts per 60 minutes when Nico Hischier is his centerman. And it just so happens Nico will be centering Bratt this evening in Ottawa.
Expect Bratt to take advantage.
Brady Tkachuk over 3.5 shots (+100)
Brady Tkachuk is one of the best shot generators in the league right now, particularly on home soil. Tkachuk has amassed 73 shot attempts and 51 shots on goal over his last 10 home games. That's a whopping 5.1 shots per contest, and a lot better than his usual average of 3.5.
The Devils are missing their two best play drivers in Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, and they aren't exactly the stoutest defensive team at the best of times.
Tkachuk figures to be the prime beneficiary, especially with more of the offensive workload getting put on his shoulders while Josh Norris and Drake Batherson are sidelined.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
This game has under written all over it. At five-on-five, the Nashville Predators and Vancouver Canucks both rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goal generation over the last 10 games. Each offense is potent, but neither will overwhelm its opponent with high-danger chances on an average night.
But what really stands out to me is the goaltending matchup. Even if the two sides generate more opportunities than usual, each team has a high-end netminder to help clean up the mess. Juuse Saros owns a remarkable .927 save percentage and has saved 19.1 goals above expectation, which ranks fourth among all goaltenders.
Although Thatcher Demko's numbers this season aren't as strong as Saros', he has played at an elite level for quite some time. Demko owns an absurd .935 save percentage since Bruce Boudreau took over as head coach in early December. He is routinely keeping the Canucks in games (or downright stealing them), which you love to see when you're backing a game to be low-scoring.
The cherry on top is that these teams' previous meetings this season were very low-event games. Both went under the number and featured an average of just 20 high-danger chances per contest. That's very low.
The Calgary Flames hit a rough patch, but they appear to be coming out of it. They have won three of their last four games and outscored opponents 15-7 in that stretch.
Four games is four games. However, their underlying numbers suggest this breakout was a long time coming.
At five-on-five, Calgary generated 117 high-danger chances over the last 10 games. That ties the team for fourth in the NHL. The Flames have been just as effective at prevention, allowing fewer high-danger opportunities than every club except the Bruins, Kraken, and Wild.
Combine the Flames' prowess at both ends of the rink and it's no surprise their share of high-danger chances (61.26%) leads the NHL over the last 10 games.
The Dallas Stars (50.78%) are no pushovers; however, their numbers don't hold a candle to what the Flames are putting up right now.
Also working in Calgary's favor is Braden Holtby's absence. The Stars will turn to Jake Oettinger as a result, and he is struggling mightily with a woeful .885 save percentage over his last nine starts.
Couple Calgary's strong five-on-five performance with a clear edge in goal and I like the Flames to stay hot.
Bet: Flames (-125)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
We have a jam-packed NHL card to work with today as 22 of the league's 32 teams will be in action.
There is no shortage of props to work through and, thus, plenty that stand out. Let's dive into three of my favorites.
Aleksander Barkov over 3.5 shots (-134)
Whatever you think of the Rangers as a whole, the reality is they aren't good at preventing shots. At five-on-five, they've allowed 61.66 attempts per 60 over the last 10 games, with only the Canadiens, Sharks, Sabres, and Blackhawks faring worse. Put simply, the Rangers are a team to target with shot props.
Perhaps no total is more appealing than Barkov's; the Finnish star has registered at least four shots on goal in six consecutive games. With last night's contest being a blowout, he only had to play 17 minutes, which should help keep the Panthers star fresh for this back-to-back situation. Expect Barkov to stay hot in a smash matchup.
Mark Scheifele over 2.5 shots (-118)
Scheifele is quietly starting to heat up. He ranks second on the Jets behind only Kyle Connor in both shot attempts and shots on goal over the last 10 games. He's actually been a little more productive on the road, too, going over the number in six of his last 10 while averaging 3.1 shots per contest.
Scheifele isn't an automatic hit, but he's certainly someone who can be relied upon in the right matchup. I would classify a date with the Flyers as such. They've allowed 33 shots per game over the last 10. Without the likes of Sean Couturier and Ryan Ellis, they don't have high-end defensive players to slow down the opposing team's best weapons.
Jakob Chychrun over 2.5 shots (-125)
Chychrun is a sneaky good play tonight. He's been a shooting machine since returning to the lineup, attempting a team-high 36 shots through just six games. That kind of volume makes him a threat to hit on any given night.
While the Avalanche are one of the league's elite teams, they do give up a fair amount to defenders. They concede 9.5 shots on goal per game to defensemen, which slots them 24th in the league. Colorado is susceptible to blue-liners, and Chychrun is shooting more than anybody on the Coyotes. I think this total should be at 3.5.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The race for the Art Ross promises to be a good one. Five players have at least 58 points, while nobody has amassed more than 62.
We've seen very little separation to date and, with the way things are shaping up, the quest for the Art Ross could come down to the wire.
Let's take a look at the current oddsboard from Barstool Sportsbook, as well as the best way to attack the market.
PLAYER
ODDS
GP
POINTS
Connor McDavid
-106
39
58
Leon Draisaitl
+150
40
61
Jonathan Huberdeau
+300
45
62
Alexander Ovechkin
+800
45
58
Nathan MacKinnon
+5000
31
43
Mikko Rantanen
+5000
40
53
Steven Stamkos
+5000
44
51
Nazem Kadri
+6000
40
59
Kirill Kaprizov
+10000
39
52
Auston Matthews
+10000
37
45
Timo Meier
+10000
40
47
Note: only listing players with odds 100-1 or shorter
Best bet:Connor McDavid (-106)
Sometimes the best bets are the simplest ones. I think that's the case here with Connor McDavid. He's a hair behind Leon Draisaitl in the points-per-game race, but I think the tables will turn in time. McDavid is the better playmaker, and he's generating scoring chances at a higher clip. Draisaitl is definitely the better finisher, but he could be in for a bit of regression while I think McDavid's increased volume can help him score a little more - whether he converts at a high clip or not.
Fade: Nathan MacKinnon (+5000)
I don't see how Nathan MacKinnon enters this race. He was already at a disadvantage in games played, and his recent injury won't help matters. His point-per-game output would have to be enormous to come close to making up lost ground already. I'm not sure he matches McDavid or Draisaitl in points per game, let alone soars past them to the extent necessary to get back in the mix.
Best value: Jonathan Huberdeau (+300)
I don't think Jonathan Huberdeau - or anyone - will best the Oilers' duo, but the Florida Panthers' star forward probably has the best chance. He's the current leader in total points, he plays for the league leaders in goals scored, and he's in a very top-heavy division. He'll see a lot of the Buffalo Sabres, Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, and Detroit Red Wings. All four of those teams rank in the bottom seven in goals against per game, which will undoubtedly help Huberdeau's cause.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
The Oilers are heating up in a big way. They've won four consecutive games and have outscored opponents 18-9 in that span, good for an average differential of 2.25 per contest.
They're playing some of their best hockey in months, which isn't surprising given the current state of the roster. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman recently returned to the lineup, while the addition of Evander Kane gives them another weapon on the wing.
As such, the Oilers can balance their lines and trot out potent duos of Connor McDavid and Kane on line one, Leon Draisaitl and Jesse Puljujarvi on line two, and Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman on line three.
While the Oilers still have holes throughout their roster, very few teams can match up against that kind of scoring depth up front. Slowing down even two of those lines is a tall order for most teams, including the Senators.
Ottawa is a poor team at the best of times, and with Josh Norris and Drake Batherson out of the lineup, the Senators are paper-thin up front. Their team defense isn't going to help mitigate those issues; nor is their inconsistent goaltending.
The Senators are a hard-working team, but that's only going to take them so far against the dynamic attack Edmonton can trot out.
I expect the Oilers to pick up another victory tonight, and I don't think it'll take more than 60 minutes.
The Ducks are staying afloat in the standings - thanks in large part to John Gibson - but they're not playing great hockey right now.
At five-on-five, Anaheim has controlled just 43.7% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. That ranks near the bottom of the league, sandwiched between the Blue Jackets and Coyotes.
The Red Wings haven't been world-beaters in that category, but they have certainly fared better than the Ducks. Their xG share is 48.35% over the same spell, which slots them just below the Penguins and Jets; much better company.
Detroit has faced the Maple Leafs, Penguins, Predators, and Stars over the last handful of games as well, so coming close to 50% is respectable.
I see them having an edge in the run of play tonight against the Ducks, especially given the schedule spot. This will be Anaheim's fourth road game in six nights and their fifth since last Monday. The Ducks have had a successful road trip to date, and I could see this being a letdown spot as they try to get back home.
Priced as a near coin flip, I like the Wings to take care of business in their building.
Bet: Red Wings (-110)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
This game is the headliner of tonight's schedule. It features two of the league's top eight teams in terms of points percentage, including a Rangers side that sits fourth in overall points.
However, it's not a side that appeals most to me. It's the total because I like the under. Igor Shesterkin was given the night off on Thursday, which means he's fresh and ready to go for this heavyweight clash. Goaltending is the best friend of unders - and nobody provides better than Shesterkin.
He owns a .937 save percentage and leads the NHL in goals saved above expectation, sitting at +23.4 through 26 games.
He has conceded two goals or fewer 16 times (62%) and given up more than three goals on just four occasions. Even in defeat, Shesterkin has a habit of limiting the damage dealt.
On the flip side of things, the Wild haven't been nearly as dangerous offensively away from home. At five-on-five, they sit 17th in goals per 60 and 22nd in expected goals per 60. They are average or below in both categories. Without the ability to get their stars in optimal matchups, I don't see them breaking this game open against Shesterkin.
While Cam Talbot is certainly not Shesterkin, he should be able to hold his own at the other end of the rink. He owns a respectable .910 save percentage and has performed at expectation based on the difficulty of his workload.
The Maple Leafs are a well-oiled machine right now. They own a 7-2-1 record over the last 10 games despite ranking 31st in team save percentage at five-on-five during this stretch. They haven't gotten anything close to average goaltending, but it hasn't mattered as the wins continue to pile up.
I don't see that changing Saturday in Detroit. The Maple Leafs have controlled 59.44% of the high-danger chances over the last 10, which slots them fourth in the NHL. Winning the chance battle that dramatically makes any team dangerous - especially one with the firepower of Toronto.
The Red Wings sit at the other end of the totem pole. Their share of the high-danger chances (41.55%) over the last 10 ranks them ahead of only the Canadiens, Blue Jackets, and Sabres. Not ideal.
Opponents are taking it to the Red Wings in the chance department every night. The Leafs should have their way against a struggling team that will find itself in the latter half of a back-to-back.
Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-140)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.