All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Wednesday player props: 3 shot totals to target

Tuesday night was a mixed bag for shot props. Aaron Ekblad came through for us with relative ease, but Jordan Eberle was blanked by the New York Islanders.

We'll set our sights higher as we look to turn a profit with shot totals Wednesday night.

Alex Tuch over 3.5 shots (-118)

Alex Tuch might be the hottest shooter in the NHL. He's registered at least four shots in eight of the last 10 games, averaging an absurd 4.6 per contest over that span.

He should have no problem continuing his success in this one. While the Montreal Canadiens have been more competent under new head coach Martin St. Louis, they're still a poor team that can be exposed defensively. The Canadiens are in the bottom 10 in five-on-five shot suppression over the last 10 games, and, just over a week ago, Tuch dinged them for five shots.

He should find success again Wednesday.

Nikita Kucherov over 3.5 shots (-112)

If Tuch isn't the most consistent shot generator in the league right now, that crown goes to Nikita Kucherov.

Kucherov has recorded at least four shots on goal in nine of his last 10 games while finding success against elite teams such as the Boston Bruins (five shots) and Colorado Avalanche (eight).

Like Montreal, the Edmonton Oilers have benefited from a coaching change. They're far from bulletproof, though, and I think Kucherov will benefit from an advantageous matchup on home soil.

Drew Doughty over 2.5 shots (-125)

Drew Doughty's shot volume is up and down. He's a guy you have to pick your spots with. It just so happens, once again, that he has a dream matchup against the Arizona Coyotes.

Doughty piled up five shots on goal against the Coyotes just a few days ago. I don't know that he'll reach that number again, but I love his chances of getting at least three.

Arizona gives up plenty of shot volume, particularly to opposing defensemen. No team has conceded more shots - overall or on a per-game basis - to the position than the Coyotes. Any big-minute defender is in play for them, especially one who quarterbacks the top power play and likes to get involved at five-on-five.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Avalanche to rebound in Detroit

Our 7-1 run came to an abrupt halt Tuesday night as we lost both of our best bets.

We'll look to get back on track Wednesday as we comb through a couple of plays that stand out the most.

Sabres (-110) @ Canadiens (-110)

The Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are both bad hockey teams. Terrible, even. They're consistently outshot and outchanced, and neither side has a reliable goaltender it can fall back on.

For me, this play falls down to talent. I believe the Sabres have more firepower than the Canadiens.

It starts with the big line up front. Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and Jeff Skinner have been fantastic since they were put on a line together. They've controlled better than 50% of the chances and expected goals - no small feat on the Sabres - and have outscored opponents by four goals through 136 minutes of five-on-five play.

Montreal's top line had a big game last time out, but the group's underlying offensive metrics aren't as strong as its counterpart's.

I also like that Buffalo has more depth up the middle. Dylan Cozens is a promising sophomore, while Casey Mittelstadt has produced half a point per game since the beginning of last season. Those are solid outputs from your third center. The Canadiens, meanwhile, have next to nothing after Nick Suzuki.

Buffalo has a little more pop in its attack, and I expect that to be the difference.

Bet: Sabres (-110)

Avalanche (-310) @ Red Wings (+245)

This Detroit Red Wings team isn't the pushover it's been in recent years. Even so, I expect the Colorado Avalanche to have their way against the Wings on Wednesday.

Coming off a blowout loss to the Boston Bruins, the Avalanche will no doubt look to respond with a strong showing in Detroit.

They have plenty of paths to do just that. For one, they're the much better five-on-five side. Colorado is 11 spots ahead of Detroit in expected goal share over the last 10 games. The Avalanche should be able to generate chances in bulk, which is problematic given the Red Wings' level of goaltending.

Projected starter Thomas Greiss owns a subpar .902 save percentage and is a negative in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected.

That spells trouble against this Colorado team, especially considering it appears poised for a huge breakout. The Avs sit 22nd in five-on-five goals over the last 10 games despite ranking inside the top five in high-danger chance generation.

Put another way, they've created dangerous opportunities in bulk; they just haven't gone in (Colorado sits 28th in shooting percentage during this spell).

The Avalanche have far too much talent to stay bottled up forever. If the chances continue to be there, the goals will follow. I expect that to be the case in this one against Greiss.

As an added bonus, Detroit has lost by at least two in five straight defeats and eight of 11 in 2022. When the Wings lose, it's generally by multiple goals.

I expect that to be the case in this one, and even more so if captain Dylan Larkin - who's questionable - is unable to play.

Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Home cooking for Eberle, Ekblad

We have six games on the docket Tuesday, which means there are plenty of player props to comb through.

Let's take a closer look at two of my favorites.

Jordan Eberle over 2.5 shots (+105)

On the surface, the Islanders are not a team you would perceive to be a good prop target for shots against. But perception tells a different story than reality.

At five-on-five, they have given up 60.33 shot attempts per 60 minutes over their last 10 road dates. That's one of the NHL's worst rates, slotting them 27th in that span. They give up plenty of volume when they can't control the matchups.

Also working in Eberle's favor: The Islanders struggle to defend against right-wingers. Only five teams concede more shots per game to the position.

Eberle's raw shot volume is also higher at home and - if you're into narratives - there's the revenge factor for Eberle. The Kraken forward has faced the Islanders once already but, in a season that's otherwise lost, a matchup against the team that exposed him in the expansion draft could provide a little extra motivation.

Aaron Ekblad over 2.5 shots (-148)

Aaron Ekblad, like his Panthers as a whole, is particularly lethal when playing on home soil.

Ekblad has averaged 3.3 shots on goal per game in Florida this season, which has allowed him to go over the number 19 times in 25 tries. That's a remarkable 76% hit rate.

What's even more impressive is Ekblad started the season somewhat slowly, hitting in four of his first seven at home. Since then, he has registered at least three shots in 15 of 18, which is a ridiculous 83.33% hit rate.

The Predators are a solid team but definitely not one we have to avoid, especially when away from home. Nashville ranks 27th in shot suppression at five-on-five over its last 10 road dates.

Ekblad should have no problem taking advantage of this matchup.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Maple Leafs to rebound in Columbus

We're coming off a successful week of betting, going 7-1 with our best bets.

We'll look to pick up where we left off as we start anew on Tuesday. Let's get down to business.

Maple Leafs (-230) @ Blue Jackets (+190)

The Toronto Maple Leafs lost by three goals to one of the worst teams in hockey on Monday. And, you know what? I'm going right back to them against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

You don't need me to tell you Toronto is one of the best offensive teams in the NHL. They have a ton of firepower and, statistically speaking, they're one of the league's best at generating chances. If skill players get opportunities in bulk, they're going to score.

I expect the Maple Leafs to get a ton of them against the Blue Jackets. Over the last 10 games, Columbus ranks 28th in high-danger chances against and 31st in expected goals against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play.

Giving up that kind of volume is a risky proposition no matter who is between the pipes. It just so happens J.F. Berube is expected to get the nod in this one.

The 36-year-old journeyman netminder has consistently posted sub .900 save percentages in the AHL over the last few years. Expecting him to slow the Maple Leafs - who should be chomping at the bit to redeem themselves after Monday's disastrous showing - is unrealistic, to say the least.

I like the Maple Leafs to score early and often in this one.

Bet: Leafs -1.5 (+105)

Sharks (+125) @ Ducks (-150)

The wheels are coming off the San Jose Sharks. They've won just once over the last eight games and their underlying metrics in that span have been downright miserable - especially defensively.

At five-on-five, they've conceded more than 69 shot attempts per 60 minutes. They have also given up 3.48 expected goals against and 16.13 high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. They rank dead last in the NHL - well behind even the Arizona Coyotes - in each of those categories.

For perspective, the Anaheim Ducks have allowed 55.21 attempts, 2.67 expected goals, and 11.20 high-danger chances per 60 over the same span. They haven't exactly been stout and yet their defensive metrics are several tiers above San Jose's.

I expect the Ducks will be able to control the run of play in this game. They should generate more quality opportunities and, based on the projected goaltending matchup (James Reimer vs. John Gibson), I feel better about the Ducks getting the saves they need.

Back Anaheim to take care of business against the slumping Sharks.

Bet: Ducks (-150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL weekend preview: Can Oilers stay hot in Winnipeg?

What a week it's been for best bets. We've put together three consecutive 2-0 nights, which we'll look to build on as we head into the weekend.

Let's get right to the plays.

Predators (+145) @ Hurricanes (-175)
Feb. 18, 7 p.m. EST

The Nashville Predators and Carolina Hurricanes have seen a lot of each other over the last year and change. Thanks to division realignment a season ago, they've actually gone head-to-head nine times.

Of those nine meetings, guess how many featured more than six goals? I'll give you a hint - the answer rhymes with hero. That's right, all nine contests would've at least pushed with a total of six.

I expect the streak to extend to 10 for a few reasons.

Juuse Saros owns a .924 save percentage this season and has saved 18 more goals than expected through 41 games. That's the fourth-highest total in the NHL.

Saros' counterpart has performed just as well, if not better. Frederik Andersen has rebounded in the best way imaginable during his first season in Carolina. His save percentage sits at .928, and only Igor Shesterkin (+26.5) - the odds-on Vezina favorite - has fared better (+24.9) in terms of goals saved above expectation.

The goaltending should be great, and I have faith in both defenses helping their guy out as well. The Predators have been one of the league's best at limiting high-danger chances. The Hurricanes are competent as well, with Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce chewing up big minutes.

With the makeup of each team, and both entering this game having lost at least two in a row, I just don't see this turning into a shootout.

Bet: Under 6 (-105)

Oilers (-120) @ Jets (+100)
Feb. 19, 4 p.m. EST

Life is good under new head coach Jay Woodcroft. The Edmonton Oilers have won all four games since he became bench boss and their underlying numbers suggest those results were no fluke.

The Oilers have outshot opponents 112-85 (56.85%) at five-on-five, controlled more than 59% of the expected goals, and beaten teams into the ground on the scoreboard (14-3).

Their superstars have busted out of their slumps (relatively speaking) while the support players have contributed at both ends of the rink.

That's why the Oilers have been scoring at will, and that's why they have allowed fewer shots and chances per minute than every team in the NHL over the last four games. Small sample size, I know, but this is a much different team than we saw under Dave Tippett.

The Winnipeg Jets have spun their wheels for a while now. The offense is inconsistent, they routinely get outplayed, and Connor Hellebuyck is only just coming out of a bad slump.

I see a lot of edges for this red-hot Oilers team and expect their success to continue this weekend.

Bet: Oilers (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Friday player props: Going Wild in Minnesota

Thursday was yet another winning day for our props. While Nick Suzuki didn't get the job done, Dylan Larkin and Patrick Kane did, pushing our record this week to 6-2.

We'll look to continue our success as we comb through the best values for Friday's four-game slate.

Aleksander Barkov over 3.5 shots (+105)

Another day, another Aleksander Barkov shot prop. He's been absolutely lethal of late, recording at least four shots in eight of his last nine games. Barkov has hit against the likes of the Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes, so it's not like he's just beating up on bad teams.

His recent success should carry into Friday. The Minnesota Wild are a strong team, but they're not bulletproof, especially when it comes to preventing shots. They sit 21st in shots against over the last 10 games.

What adds to Barkov's appeal is how badly Minnesota has struggled to limit opposing centers' shots. Only five teams have given up more per game to the position.

I'm happy to take my chances with Barkov at plus money.

Joel Eriksson Ek over 2.5 shots (-125)

Joel Eriksson Ek is a machine on home ice. He's registered 39 shots over his last 10 games in Minnesota and gone over the number (2.5) in eight of his last nine. But Eriksson Ek isn't just grinding out wins; he's picking them up with room to spare. He's registered four shots or more in seven of the last nine and averaged 4.4 per game over the last five.

The Florida Panthers, like Minnesota, are a strong squad, but they also give up plenty of volume to opposing centers. Only seven teams concede more shots per game against centers.

Given Florida's struggles with the position and Eriksson Ek's insane volume on home ice, this line feels too soft.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: 3 forwards to target

Shot props have been very good to us this campaign. With Alex Pietrangelo and Aleksander Barkov hitting on Wednesday night, our record sits at 4-1 this week.

We'll aim to keep the good times going with three plays for tonight's slate.

Dylan Larkin over 2.5 shots (-134)

Dylan Larkin is the Detroit Red Wings' most consistent shot generator, leading the team in both attempts and shots on goal this season - and by wide margins. If we zoom in and focus on the last 10 games, he still finds himself on top. Simply put, Larkin's taking a lot of shots.

Tonight Larkin finds himself in a sneaky good spot against the New York Rangers. While the Rangers are a good squad, they give up a lot of shot volume, especially to centers. Believe it or not, only the Montreal Canadiens concede more shots to the position on a per game basis.

Larkin should have plenty of looks at the net in this contest.

Nick Suzuki over 2.5 shots (+110)

It's no secret Martin St. Louis would rather have Habs players make their own reads with the puck than take away their creativity and box them into a system, which figures to benefit skilled players like Nick Suzuki. The early returns suggest as much, with Suzuki piling up 11 shots on goal and seven scoring chances through three games.

The St. Louis Blues allow more shots to the center position than all but Montreal and New York, so Suzuki finds himself in a strong spot to keep the shot volume trending upwards.

Patrick Kane over 3.5 shots (+105)

Patrick Kane lives for home games. The winger has averaged a whopping 4.1 shots on goal per game in Chicago for the Blackhawks this campaign, including 4.6 over his last five. Kane is a legitimate threat to hit four shots every single night regardless of matchup, and he just so happens to have a very good one tonight.

The Columbus Blue Jackets bleed shots more than most other clubs, and their numbers are progressively getting worse. The Blue Jackets have allowed 35.58 shots per 60 minutes over the last 10 games at five-on-five - only the Canadiens have conceded more. Columbus is also bottom-eight in suppressing shots on the penalty kill over that span. Be it at five-on-five or on the power play, Kane should routinely find himself in good positions to shoot.

Priced at less than a coin flip, I love backing Kane at home in this spot.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Flames to pounce on sitting Ducks

The best bets were good to us on Tuesday night. The Blues picked up a multi-goal regulation win against the Senators, while the Stars and Avalanche gave us a relatively sweat-free under, combining for five goals in a game with a 6.5 total.

We'll aim for another 2-0 night with our best bets.

Panthers (-105) @ Hurricanes (-115)

This game is going to be incredible. By all accounts, we're looking at two of the best teams in the NHL. The Panthers and Hurricanes are tied for second in wins (32) and sit among the league leaders in several key underlying metrics.

There isn't much separating the two, but I have to give the edge to Florida.

At five-on-five, no team has controlled a larger share of the shot attempts or goals than the Panthers. They rank a tad lower (third) in expected goals, but they remain slightly ahead of the Hurricanes in that category as well.

Florida should hold at least a slight advantage during five-on-five play. While the top half of the two sides should essentially cancel each other out, I like the Panthers' depth a little more.

Florida also figures to have an edge in terms of team discipline. Only the Predators have spent more time killing penalties than the Hurricanes this season.

Carolina is an elite team on the penalty kill, but you're playing with fire if you give a team like Florida plenty of power-play opportunities.

This should be a back-and-forth affair, and when all is said and done, I expect the Panthers to leave the ice with two points.

Bet: Panthers (-105)

Ducks (+170) @ Flames (-205)

Remember a few weeks ago when the Flames were treading water in the standings? Their underlying process remained remarkably strong and suggested a big breakout was coming. Well, it's here!

The Flames have won nine of their last 10 games and are full value for it. They have controlled nearly 61% of the shot attempts and 64% of the high-danger chances at five-on-five. Unsurprisingly, both totals rank first in the NHL by several percentage points.

Even in a back-to-back situation, I expect them to heavily dictate play against the Ducks. Anaheim ranks 25th in shot share and 27th in high-danger chance share over the last 10 games.

There's always the possibility that John Gibson steals a game. He's played great this season, stopping 10.4 more goals than expected. Unfortunately for the Ducks, the same can be said of Calgary's netminder.

The Flames rested Jacob Markstrom on Tuesday night so he'd be available for this divisional clash. As well as Gibson has performed, Markstrom looks even better in terms of goals saved above expectation (+11.4). He might well cancel Gibson out.

That's bad news for Anaheim, considering all the edges this Calgary team has elsewhere. The Flames should be able to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Flames in regulation (-135)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday player props: 2 shooters to target

Tuesday was a solid night for shot props. Our picks went 2-1, with Jordan Kyrou falling one short of giving us a perfect 3-0 showing.

We'll look to build on yesterday's success as we go through the best way to approach tonight's four-game slate.

Aleksander Barkov over 3.5 shots (+110)

Barkov is scorching hot. He's tied for 10th in shot attempts over the last eight games, which unsurprisingly has led to significant shot volume. Barkov has recorded at least four shots on goal in seven of the last eight games. He's firing on all cylinders - literally.

While the Hurricanes are a solid shot-suppression team, Barkov appeals to me tonight for a couple of reasons. He tends to see significant workloads (22+ minutes) in close games against quality opponents. For example, he played more than 23 the last time these two met. That's a plus.

So, too, is the fact he's skating on a line with Jonathan Huberdeau. The latter is a pass-first player who tends to defer to his linemates to shoot. That shows in Barkov's numbers. Barkov averages more than 17 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Huberdeau. By comparison, that number is just over 11 when Sam Reinhart is on the top line.

I think this is a sneaky good spot for Barkov, and I'm happy to back him at plus money.

Alex Pietrangelo over 2.5 shots (-112)

The Avalanche are a solid defensive team, but they aren't without flaws. They struggle with limiting the involvement of opposing defenders, ranking bottom-10 in shots allowed per game to defensemen.

That's good news for Pietrangelo. The veteran blue-liner leads the Golden Knights in shot attempts by nine over the last 10 games. He's generating a lot of shots, and if history is any indication, I expect that to continue tonight.

Pietrangelo has at least three shots on goal in nine of the last 10 games against Colorado, falling just one short in the lone exception.

With Pietrangelo shooting a lot and the Avalanche struggling to limit shot volume versus defensemen, I expect another active night from him.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: 3 forwards to back

We have an appetizing nine-game slate to work with, which means there is plenty of value to comb through in the player prop market.

Let's break down a few of my favorite shot totals.

Mathew Barzal over 2.5 shots (-112)

Most star offensive players generate more shots on home soil, where they generally benefit from last change and softer matchups. Mathew Barzal has served as an exception to the rule.

He is averaging just 2.1 shots per game at home this season and has gone over 2.5 shots just six times in 20 tries (30%). By comparison, Barzal has generated 2.9 shots per game on the road while hitting his total in 11 of 19 tries (58%) - including eight of the last 11.

Barzal is consistently generating high volume on the road and I don't see that changing against the Buffalo Sabres. Put simply, they are a defensive disaster, giving up shots and chances in bulk regardless of the opponent.

In fact, no team has conceded more shots on goal than the Sabres (372) over the last 10 games. Look for Barzal to have another productive shooting night.

Craig Smith over 2.5 shots (-125)

Craig Smith's workload has increased since Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand were removed from the lineup.

He piled up 11 shots through just three games while going over his shot total in each contest, and he's put together successful nights against Eastern Conference contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins.

While the New York Rangers are a strong team overall - they have a lethal power play and Igor Shesterkin is arguably the game's best goaltender right now - they do have flaws. For example, they give up a ton of shot volume. Only Ottawa has conceded shot attempts at a higher clip this season.

Smith is a shoot-first player seeing more ice time in an advantageous matchup. With Bergeron and Marchand still out of the lineup, I expect he'll take advantage.

Jordan Kyrou over 2.5 shots (-139)

Jordan Kyrou is the man right now. He leads the St. Louis Blues in shot attempts, shots on goal, and scoring chances over the last 10 games. That has translated to success on the prop market, as he's gone over 2.5 shots on six of the last nine games.

I like Kyrou's chances of making it seven in 10 on Tuesday against the Ottawa Senators. They are a feisty, competitive team, but they can only do so much with Josh Norris and Drake Batherson out of the lineup. The Senators just can't control the puck or prevent shots as well without two of their best players.

That shows in the numbers: Ottawa sits 27th in shots against per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games.

Both sides have consistently played fast-paced, high-event games. There should be plenty of shots to go around, and I expect Kyrou will get his fair share.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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