All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Tuesday player props: 3 forwards to target

The NHL is back in full force with 28 teams set to hit the ice tonight.

That means there's an obnoxious number of player props to comb through. We're going to take a closer look at three of my favorites.

Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots (-139)

Huberdeau failed at home last time out against the Sabres, but we're going right back to him Tuesday as the Panthers play host to the Ducks.

Huberdeau has registered at least three shots in 25 of his last 29 games in Florida, good for an 86% hit rate. He hasn't registered less than three shots in consecutive home games since October.

I don't see the Ducks being the team that forces the exception. They have been one of the league's worst shot suppression sides for a while now, and Huberdeau tallied three shots against them on the road in their previous meeting.

Look for him to enjoy the same kind of success while getting cushy usage at home.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots (-114)

Kaprizov is another guy with insane home splits. He has a 64% hit rate on the season - compared to 35% on the road - and has registered at least four shots in eight of the last nine games in Minnesota.

Kaprizov has proven to be matchup proof. In that nine-game span, he has gotten the job done against the Bruins, Avalanche, Penguins, and Kings - four playoff-bound teams with strong defensive metrics.

While the Oilers have played well since swapping coaches, they're not a team we have to avoid, especially with left-wingers. They have been below average at suppressing shots versus that position since March 1, with just 11 teams conceding more.

This isn't a mouthwatering matchup, but it isn't one we have to avoid either. Given Kaprizov's home success, there's plenty of value in backing him at this price.

Nico Hischier over 2.5 shots (+100)

Hischier is a player who needs a premium matchup to confidently back. It just so happens he has one against the Coyotes.

Arizona has been putrid defensively all season. The Coyotes give up shots in bulk on a nightly basis, conceding the most to opposing centers. They've allowed 12.25 shots per game to centers since the beginning of March, which ranks them 30th in the NHL.

New Jersey is missing a number of key forwards, including star center Jack Hughes. That leaves even more on Hischier's plate offensively. He hit against the Coyotes the last time they met, and I expect a similar result this time around.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Predators to pounce on undermanned Senators

We have a juicy 10-game slate to look forward to Thursday night. Believe it or not, there's plenty of value in backing a pair of 40-win teams against bottom-dwellers.

Sabres (+270) @ Hurricanes (-340)

The Hurricanes have dropped consecutive games, including a 4-2 defeat to these Sabres just a couple of days ago. Carolina rarely gets stuck in lengthy losing streaks, and I don't think that'll start now. Unfortunately, there isn't much value in backing the Canes for the entire game.

That means we're going to get creative and back the Hurricanes to win the opening period. With the Rangers hot on their tails, I think they know the importance of this game and will come out strong to get back on track.

If Buffalo's opening periods to date are any indication, Carolina's early efforts should be fruitful. The Sabres have conceded 76 goals in the first period this season, which is more than all but the Canadiens, Blue Jackets, and Devils.

The Sabres have also struggled offensively out of the gate. They've netted just 52 first-period goals, tying them with the Blackhawks for 26th. This hardly feels like the spot for a breakout, as no team has conceded fewer goals in the opening period than Carolina.

Given Carolina's first-period excellence, Buffalo's struggles, and the importance of this game, I expect the Hurricanes to come out and get an early lead on home soil.

Bet: Hurricanes 1st period -0.5 (-105)

Predators (-165) @ Senators (+140)

The Senators have played very mediocre hockey of late. They've won five of the last 10 games and controlled just 49% of the expected goals at five-on-five during that span. Those are OK numbers, but nothing to write home about.

While the Predators haven't posted great underlying numbers of late either - especially on the road - this is a get-right spot for them.

As mentioned, this Ottawa team is nothing to be scared of, especially with its current injury situation. Tim Stutzle's status for tonight is in serious question following a knee injury suffered against Montreal on Tuesday. Drake Batherson is doubtful for the game as well.

Ottawa is a very top-heavy team. They go as their top players go, so these absences will be devastating. Stutzle is playing the best hockey of his career, having picked up 16 points over his last 16 games, while Batherson has developed into a very good top-line winger.

Suffice to say, the Senators will heavily miss those two players. Nashville's playoff spot is by no means secure. The Preds need all the points they can get and need to take advantage of this opportunity.

I don't think Nashville will blow Ottawa out of the rink, but they should take care of business within 60 minutes.

Bet: Predators in regulation (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: 3 shooters to back at home

We have 10 games to look forward to on Thursday night, which means there is plenty of value on the board.

Let's zero in on three of my favorite shot totals to attack.

Teuvo Teravainen over 2.5 shots (-103)

Teravainen has cooled down a little bit, but his home numbers remain remarkably strong. He has registered at least three shots in 21 of 33 games in Carolina, good for a 64% success rate.

One of those home dates came against these same Buffalo Sabres. Unsurprisingly, it was a successful night at the office; Teravainen generated four shots on target.

The Sabres have tightened up defensively since that meeting but can still be targeted with shots. The Hurricanes generated 34 against them just a few days ago. I expect Carolina will hover around that number again in this game, which should be more than enough volume for Teravainen to come through.

Josh Norris over 2.5 shots (-139)

Norris has hit another level since Drake Batherson returned to the Ottawa Senators' lineup. He has registered at least three shots on goal in five consecutive games, averaging 7.2 attempts per contest. That's well above his season average of 4.7.

One of those five hits came against the Nashville Predators, and it's no coincidence. The Preds have struggled mightily against centers of late, allowing 11.31 shots per game to the position since March 1. Only the Montreal Canadiens, Arizona Coyotes, San Jose Sharks, and Detroit Red Wings have fared worse during that period.

Look for Norris to stay hot at home and extend his streak to six.

Anze Kopitar over 2.5 shots (+100)

Kopitar and home shots go together like burgers and fries. They're a truly wonderful combo.

The Los Angeles Kings captain has been money at home all season, generating three or more shots in 24 of 37 games (65%). Of late, he's hit against the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers, so it's not as if he has just picked on the weak.

If you're worried about how well the Edmonton Oilers are playing, fear not. Kopitar has gone up against the Oilers three times this season; he totaled 11 shots and went over his total in each contest.

With the Kings in the thick of a heated playoff race, they're really leaning on Kopitar in close and important games. This one definitely profiles as such, so a few extra shifts could be heading Kopitar's way, making him an even more attractive option at +100.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: No fireworks as Lightning visit Capitals

Tuesday was a great night on the ice. Two of our three team bets came through while all three shot totals hit. In total, we went 5-1.

While there aren't any sides that stand out Wednesday night - at least before injury or goaltending news - I see value in a total and two props. Let's dive in.

Lightning (-140) @ Capitals (+115)

The Lightning and Capitals enter this game in a similar place. Both are coming off two defeats, including four-goal losses at home. They'll no doubt be looking to tighten up and get back on track as they jockey for position in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

Despite all the firepower in this matchup, there's plenty of value on the under.

Washington has struggled to keep the puck out of the net over the last few games. That's not because of defensive issues, though. The Capitals have actually done a great job of suppressing chances for quite some time.

At five-on-five, only the Wild and Rangers have allowed high-danger chances at a lower rate than Washington over the last 10 games. The Capitals are keeping opponents away from the blue paint.

That's something the Lightning have excelled at all season long. While they haven't been as competent of late, the Bolts sit seventh in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes. The Capitals aren't far behind, placing 10th.

With both teams coming off embarrassing defeats, the coaches will likely be preaching the importance of tightening up. And each side has the ability to lock things down. We've seen that firsthand in their meetings this season.

The Lightning and Capitals have faced each other twice, combining for three goals in one game and five goals in the other. The low totals weren't due to stellar goaltending, either. The first meeting featured only 3.33 expected goals at five-on-five, while the second featured 2.89 expected goals. Simply put, there was nothing there in terms of chance volume.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-125)

Trevor Zegras over 2.5 shots (-112)

Zegras is cooking, especially on home ice. He's registered at least three shots on goal in six of his last eight games in Anaheim.

The Flames are a strong shot-suppression team, but there's plenty of reason to believe Zegras can stay hot in this game. He's hit the over in two of the Ducks' three meetings with Calgary thus far, falling one shot shy in the lone exception.

The Flames have also given up plenty of volume to centers of late. They've allowed 10.90 shots per game to centers since the beginning of March, good for 24th in the NHL. They don't rank bottom 10 in shot suppression against any other position during that period.

With Zegras averaging 5.7 shot attempts over the last 10 games compared to 4.5 for the season, it seems like a good time to jump on the train.

Jack Eichel over 3.5 shots (-112)

Eichel is one of the hottest shot generators in the NHL. He's been almost automatic of late, recording four shots or more in eight of his last 10 games, including his last outing against the Canucks.

With Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and many other key players out of the Golden Knights' lineup, Eichel is being asked to carry the load at even strength and on the power play. He's Vegas' best scoring threat, and the team is using him accordingly.

So long as the shot attempts continue - Eichel has averaged 6.2 during this hot streak - one almost has to back him each night at anything close to even money.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Stars to cool red-hot Islanders

We turned a slight profit Monday night. While the St. Louis Blues didn't win the first period - naturally, they scored four in the second - the Toronto Maple Leafs came through for us as +115 underdogs.

We'll aim for better as we dig into our best bets for Tuesday's massive NHL slate.

Islanders (+110) @ Stars (-130)

The New York Islanders have won four in a row and are on an impressive 7-3-0 run. Don't let that fool you, though. They're not playing as well as their recent results would have you believe - not even close. Without much high-end talent, the Islanders won't keep their good run going forever.

At five-on-five, they've controlled 43.42% of the shot attempts (28th) and 42.12% of the expected goals (29th). That groups them with the Philadelphia Flyers, Chicago Blackhawks, Montreal Canadiens, and Arizona Coyotes - not where you want to be.

The Dallas Stars own the same 7-3-0 record but have a much better underlying process. They're above 50% in shot share and expected goals share while crushing opponents in high-danger chances, sitting at nearly 57% (seventh).

Dallas has been fantastic at home this season, posting a 21-9-1 record. It's in much better form than the Islanders - despite matching records over the last 10 - and also has a clear advantage when it comes to talent level.

Back the Stars to rebound at home.

Bet: Stars (-130)

Wild (-110) @ Predators (-110)

The Minnesota Wild are an excellent team playing at an extremely high level right now. Even so, I think the value lies with the Nashville Predators.

They've been a fantastic home side this season, winning 66% of their games while also looking quite strong under the hood.

Nashville dominates teams at five-on-five, controlling nearly 57% of the high-danger chances. That's the seventh-highest home total in the league, placing it ahead of teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, and Maple Leafs. Pretty good.

Combine a consistent edge in chances with top-tier goaltending from Juuse Saros, and it's no coincidence the Predators have won so frequently in Nashville.

It's also worth noting the Predators have beaten the Wild in Minnesota twice already this season by an 11-4 aggregate score. Across all situations, Nashville controlled 62% and 70% of the expected goals. Utter dominance.

I don't think the Predators are getting as much respect as they deserve in this spot.

Bet: Predators (-110)

Avalanche (-105) @ Penguins (-115)

I know, I know. It's always terrifying betting unders in games involving a team with as much firepower as the Colorado Avalanche. That's where there's value, though, so we're going to plug and play.

A quick glance at this matchup would have you thinking about all the dynamic offensive players involved but, in reality, it's the teams' defenses that are most potent right now.

The Pittsburgh Penguins have given up 2.23 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five over the last 10 games. That ties them for fourth place in the NHL with ... the Avalanche!

Neither team is allowing much, and both can rely on their netminders to clean up mistakes when necessary.

Darcy Kuemper is hotter than anybody in the league. He's appeared in 18 games since the beginning of February, posting a ridiculous .940 save percentage. He also has an .899 save percentage against Grade A chances, which slots him top in the NHL.

Tristan Jarry can't touch those numbers but should be able to hold his own, as he showed when these teams met just a few days ago. He owns a .914 save percentage since Feb. 1 and sits eighth in goals saved above expected this season.

There'll be goals in this game but, as was the case in Colorado, I think it goes under the number.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-110)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: 3 forwards to target

We have a jam-packed 10-game slate to look forward to on Tuesday night, which means there is plenty of fruit ripe for the picking.

Let's take a look at three of the shot totals that stand out the most.

Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 shots (-108)

There's no such thing as a lock, but Huberdeau at home might be the closest thing. Huberdeau has registered at least three shots in 24 of his last 27 games in Florida for a ridiculous 89% rate.

Huberdeau is showing no signs of slowing down either. He has piled up 38 shots over the last 10 (3.8 per game), going over the number on nine occasions.

While the Toronto Maple Leafs are not generally a team you want to target with shot totals, Huberdeau has proved to be matchup-proof when it comes to games on home soil. The Maple Leafs are also in the latter half of a back-to-back and playing their third road game in four nights, so their defense might not be at its sharpest.

At near even money, there's real value in backing Huberdeau.

Josh Norris over 2.5 shots (-129)

Norris is in the midst of one of his best shooting spells this season. He has taken off since his running mate, Drake Batherson, returned to the lineup.

Norris has piled up 16 shots in four contests, going over the total (2.5) each time out. Norris' run doesn't appear to be smoke and mirrors; he's generating a ton of shot attempts, having taken 29 during this four-game spell. If you're attempting more than seven shots a night, it's generally a safe assumption three will hit the net.

The volume should continue to be there Tuesday night. Norris draws a Montreal Canadiens team that, while improved, can't defend a lick against the center position. No team has conceded more shots per game to centers since the beginning of March.

Timo Meier over 3.5 shots (-125)

Alex Ovechkin, David Pastrnak, Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Auston Matthews: Those five superstars are the only players in the league with more shots on goal on home soil than Meier. The guy is a shooting machine.

While not quite Huberdeau in terms of hit rate, Meier has been no slouch. He has averaged 4.3 shots per contest in San Jose this season, hitting the over in 69% of his home games.

Meier is someone we can back against almost any opponent. It just so happens Meier has an encouraging track record of success against the Edmonton Oilers.

In two meetings thus far, Meier generated 17 shot attempts and 10 shots on goal while hitting the over both times.

Even on this 7-2-1 run, the Oilers are slightly below average in terms of limiting shots. We can definitely target them with a player like Meier.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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Hart Trophy odds update: A 2-horse race

With some teams having completed as much as 87% of their schedules, we are in the home stretch of the NHL regular season.

A handful of players still have a chance at the Hart Trophy, but it's realistically a two-horse race. Let's take a closer look at each candidate's chances and determine who you should back to claim the hardware.

PLAYER ODDS
Auston Matthews +175
Connor McDavid +200
Igor Shesterkin +500
Johnny Gaudreau +1000
Jonathan Huberdeau +1000

We'll start with Auston Matthews, who's emerged as an ever-so-slight favorite to win his first Hart Trophy. It's not hard to see why.

Matthews has piled up a league-leading 51 goals through 63 games, which is a ridiculous 66-goal pace over 82 games. His rate of production would put him at 114 points over a full schedule.

While Matthews lags behind Connor McDavid in points, the Toronto Maple Leafs star is superior in several areas - the obvious one being goal-scoring. McDavid is 11 behind Matthews despite having played six more contests.

Both players are electric offensive producers, so what really separates Matthews is defensive impact.

McDavid has improved defensively compared to a few years ago. His numbers remain a tier below Matthews', though. The Edmonton Oilers allow about two fewer shot attempts and 0.08 fewer expected goals per 60 minutes with McDavid on the ice. Those are solid numbers - especially for the league's most dynamic player - but they don't really move the needle. They're essentially the same team defensively with or without McDavid on the ice.

It's a much different story for Matthews and the Maple Leafs: They concede 7.19 fewer attempts and 0.35 fewer expected goals per 60 minutes with Matthews on the ice.

In simpler terms, the Leafs give up around 54 attempts and 2.40 expected goals per 60 without Matthews on the ice. When he's out there, those numbers dip to 47 shot attempts and 2.05 xG. That moves the needle.

Both players are exceptional talents having exceptional seasons. While Matthews trails in overall production (124 point pace versus 114 point pace), he has a big edge in goals, his defensive impact is much more significant, and his team is 11 points ahead in the standings – despite playing in a division featuring powerhouses in the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Boston Bruins.

It'll come down to the wire, but ultimately, I think the Hart is Matthews' to lose.

When it comes to the other players listed, I just don't see it happening. Igor Shesterkin has played in 46 games and owns a .902 save percentage over the last 10.

Johnny Gaudreau, while spectacular, lags well behind Matthews in goals and McDavid in points.

Jonathan Huberdeau skates on his team's second line, is not a plus defender at five-on-five, and has an offensive zone start percentage above 80. Put another way, he plays supremely cushy minutes. That doesn't add up to a good case.

This is down to Matthews and McDavid. I like the former to pull through at +175.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Blues to get early jump on Coyotes

We have just four games on the docket for Monday night. Luckily, there's still value to be had.

Let's dive into a couple of my favorite plays as we look to get the week started on a high note.

Coyotes (+295) @ Blues (-375)

The Blues are coming off an impressive road victory over the Flames. They should have no problem picking up where they left off at home against the bottom-feeding Coyotes.

Arizona is playing absolutely dreadful hockey right now. Over the last 10 games, they've controlled just 38.42% of the expected goals and been out-chanced 285-192 at five-on-five. Opponents are walking all over them.

I expect the Blues to get an early jump in this game. They've been a potent first-period team this season, netting 63 goals thus far. That's more than the Hurricanes, Penguins, and Rangers, to name a few.

On the flip side, Arizona has routinely gotten off to disastrous starts. The Coyotes have conceded 69 goals in the opening frame; only four teams have allowed more.

Now they find themselves in the latter half of a road back-to-back against a good team, and they'll have Ivan Prosvetov between the pipes. He has posted a save percentage well below .900 in back-to-back AHL seasons. With numbers like that in the AHL, it's hard to imagine him finding success at the NHL level.

I expect the Blues to jump all over a bad, fatigued team by getting an early lead. Backing St. Louis to win the opening frame is where I see the most value.

Bet: Blues first period -0.5 (-115)

Maple Leafs (+115) @ Lightning (-140)

The Maple Leafs are in a very good spot heading into this game. They've won four consecutive contests - all by at least two goals - and beat up on stiff competition in that time, including the Bruins and Panthers.

The underlying numbers suggest their 7-3 run is well deserved. They've controlled 56.41% of the expected goals at five-on-five during this spell. That places them sixth in the NHL - ahead of the Penguins, Avalanche, and, yes, Lightning.

For all the talk about Toronto's "defensive issues," it's the defensive play that's been most impressive. The Leafs have given up just 2.22 expected goals per 60 over the last 10 games, good for third place.

If their goaltending had been a little better, we're likely talking about a team that has won eight or nine of the last 10 - and deservedly so.

Given the way Toronto is dominating at full strength and the fact that Tampa Bay is playing its third game in four nights, I think the Leafs will win the five-on-five play.

While goaltending is the great equalizer, and the Lightning certainly have the better starter, it's worth noting Andrei Vasilevskiy has struggled a bit over the last couple of months.

He has appeared in 16 of Tampa Bay's last 20 games, posting a .911 save percentage overall and .793 versus high-danger shots. The former ties him with Martin Jones, while the latter matches Craig Anderson. Not what you'd expect.

Vasilevskiy is absolutely capable of stealing games on any given night, but his recent play makes me skeptical he'll do so against a scorching hot Maple Leafs side.

Bet: Maple Leafs (+115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL weekend preview: Stars to shine in San Jose

We're heading into another busy weekend of games, with 16 contests scheduled.

Let's dive into a couple of my favorite plays as we look to rebound from a tough night with sides and totals (props went 3-0, at least).

Islanders (+150) @ Rangers (-180)

The New York Rangers didn't go big-game hunting at the trade deadline. Instead, they acquired a collection of quality role players to add depth to the roster and push fringe NHLers down - or out of - the lineup.

While it's still early, the returns look very promising. While normally highly mediocre at five-on-five, the Rangers have recently been dismantling their opponents. They've controlled over 57% of the shot attempts and expected goals over the last five games, ranking fifth in both categories.

All season long, the Rangers have been tough to deal with because of Igor Shesterkin and a strong power play. Now, they're showing the ability to not just stay afloat but excel at five-on-five. We're still dealing with a small sample size, but the results are about as good as they could possibly be.

The Rangers should be able to decisively control the run of play against the New York Islanders on Friday night. The Isles have struggled mightily at five-on-five of late, posting a putrid 42.03 expected goals for percentage over the last 10 games. That ranks them 29th in the NHL - ahead only of bottom-feeders like the Philadelphia Flyers, Arizona Coyotes, and Montreal Canadiens.

Additionally, the Islanders are in the latter half of a back-to-back and going up against a strong Rangers team with a rested Shesterkin between the pipes.

I like the home side to take care of business inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Rangers in regulation (-108)

Stars (-157) @ Sharks (+130)

The San Jose Sharks are playing some bad hockey right now. They've won just four of their last 10 games, and their five-on-five profile during that span is very underwhelming.

They rank 28th in terms of five-on-five shot share and don't grade out much better in xG, sitting 26th in the NHL.

Over the same period, the Dallas Stars have controlled over 51% of the xG share, good for 15th in the league.

Dallas managed those numbers while playing without Miro Heiskanen for a notable chunk of games. He's one of the best defensemen in the league and is a good bet to finish top 10 in Norris voting.

Heiskanen is very important to the Stars, and I expect his return to the lineup to make them much better. Considering how tight the wild-card playoff race is, Dallas needs every point it can get. That means taking care of business against teams like the Sharks.

Back the Stars to pick up their third win. If you want to do so in 60, I like that too.

Bet: Stars (-157)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Coyotes can’t swim with Sharks

It was a mixed bag on the ice Tuesday. We went 1-2 with sides and 2-1 with player props. We'll aim for a winning night as we look at the best ways to approach Wednesday's six-game slate.

Rangers (-155) @ Red Wings (+130)

The Detroit Red Wings are not a good team. I won't try and make you believe otherwise. But they're also not as bad as their recent stretch - headlined by an 11-2 loss - would make you believe.

Take their last 10 games, for example. The Red Wings have controlled approximately 45% of the expected goals, generating 27.51 and allowing 32.96. That's an expected net of -5.45 goals, a little more than half a puck per contest. In actuality, the Red Wings were outscored 49-26 in that span; a -23 net.

The number of goals for aligns almost exactly with what they should've scored based on the chances they've created. Their goaltenders have conceded more than 16 goals above expected, though.

Thomas Greiss is past his best-before date, while Alex Nedeljkovic's rookie season in Carolina no doubt fooled people into believing he was better than he is. Even so, it's reasonable to suggest the goalies aren't going to give the Red Wings an .864 save percentage over their next 10 games. There should be at least some level of positive regression.

Detroit's offense should be able to contribute meaningfully in this game as well. The New York Rangers aren't great at five-on-five, their penalty kill has been conceding a lot, and Igor Shesterkin likely won't be there to mask their problems Wednesday. He hasn't started on consecutive nights all season, so it's fair to assume Alexandar Georgiev will get the nod.

Georgiev has his moments, but the overall body of work is quite poor. He owns an .894 save percentage and, among those with 20-plus starts, ranks bottom-10 in goals saved above expectation per 60.

I like the Red Wings to show real pushback following an embarrassing defeat. With Georgiev in goal and a fatigued Rangers team in town, there is value in backing Detroit outright.

Bet: Red Wings (+130)

Sharks (-150) @ Coyotes (+125)

The San Jose Sharks are a bad team in bad form. At five-on-five, they've controlled just 41.48% of the shot attempts and a hair under 44% of the expected goals over the last 10 games. Not good; and yet they are a tier - or two - above the putrid Arizona Coyotes.

Arizona has posted unfathomably bad numbers of late. The Coyotes' share of the shot attempts sits at just over 36%, while their xG share sits at 32%. Yikes.

A simpler way of putting that: for every xG they generate, they allow two. Not that a team like the Tampa Bay Lightning would ever post such numbers, but those kinds of differentials would be disastrous for a side with their level of shooting talent and goaltending. For Arizona? It's a death sentence.

They don't have enough finishing in their lineup to outperform expectations to the extent necessary to win games. They also don't have the goaltending; especially under these circumstances. Their options are Karel Vejmelka for the third time in four nights or Josef Korenar, an .853 goaltender in the AHL this season.

Neither should be able to match what the Sharks get from James Reimer, who has quietly enjoyed a solid campaign. He owns a .917 save percentage and sits just one spot below Jake Oettinger in GSAE per start.

As poorly as the Sharks are playing, I see edges across the board. Back them to take care of business inside 60.

Bet: Sharks in regulation (+102)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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