All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Tuesday best bets: Penguins to cool off streaking Ducks

We split our best bets to begin the week. The Panthers blew a 3-0 lead against the Blue Jackets and were unable to put them away in regulation. Thankfully, a low-event game played out in Dallas to cash the under.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of my favorite plays for Tuesday night's slate.

Jets (-140) @ Blues (+120)

The Jets and Blues enter this contest with matching win totals, but I think there is a sizable gap between the two sides.

Although the Blues have won back-to-back games, those came against a mediocre Canadiens team resting Jake Allen - by far their best goaltender - and a Devils side playing without Jack Hughes (for all but three minutes of ice time) and Nico Hischier.

The Blues' putrid underlying numbers are showing no signs of improvement. They've controlled just 42.7% of the expected goals at five-on-five over the past five games, posting poor metrics in chance generation and prevention.

The Jets, meanwhile, controlled 58% of the expected goals share over the last five, headlined by their league-best numbers in terms of preventing expected goals.

Even without Gabriel Vilardi, the Jets remain a potent five-on-five offense. They should be able to generate plenty of chances against this Blues defense and keep limiting what they give up at the other end.

I see the Jets as a playoff-caliber team and the Blues as closer to the bottom grouping. That should shine through in this game.

Bet: Jets (-140)

Penguins (-165) @ Ducks (+140)

Led by youngsters Mason McTavish, Trevor Zegras, Leo Carlsson, and Pavel Mintyukov, the Ducks are a very fun team to watch. They're still not a good team.

Their young core doesn't have a lot of support up front - the bottom six is terrible - and the Ducks' overall defensive play remains quite suspect. The 6-0 run they're on is a lot of smoke and mirrors. Of course, the Ducks deserve credit for scoring in bunches and finding ways to win games, but the way they're doing it isn't sustainable.

The Ducks have controlled only 40.85% of the expected goals share during this hot streak, which puts them very close to the bottom of the league. Getting outchanced consistently is not a recipe for success; nor is being forced to come from behind in the third period on a nightly basis.

Anaheim's level of play needs to rise several tiers for its success to continue and I don't see that happening against the Penguins.

Pittsburgh's start to the season has been a roller-coaster ride but there are a lot of encouraging signs beneath the hood. The Pens have generated chances at an absurd rate on the power play and, sooner or later, the puck will start to find the net in such situations.

They are also playing good hockey at five-on-five. They own a 57.84 xGF% over the past six games, which slots them just below teams like the Hurricanes and Avalanche.

The Penguins are poised to go on a bit of a run. Their 10-2 trouncing of the Sharks was a good place to start. I expect them to build on it versus the Ducks.

Bet: Penguins in regulation (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday player props: MacKinnon set for success vs. Devils

We started the week on a positive note Monday, cashing two of three player props.

Connor McDavid was listed at four shots with several minutes remaining in the second period but never registered another shot and actually had one taken away, preventing us from completing the sweep.

We'll set our sights on a perfect evening with three more props for Tuesday's big NHL card.

Tage Thompson under 3.5 shots

Thompson is having a tough time on the road. He's registered more than six shot attempts in only one game away from Buffalo thus far.

Dating back to last season, Thompson has gone under his 3.5 shot total in 17 of the 21 road games in which he attempted six shots or fewer.

There's plenty of reason to expect a low-volume output Tuesday night against the Hurricanes. They're the league's best shot-suppression team at five-on-five and rank third while killing penalties.

They're particularly dominant on home ice, where they're allowing just 47 shot attempts per game across all situations. The Hurricanes are giving opponents nothing, and they'll have the last change to get the matchups they want against Thompson.

He faced the Hurricanes three times last season, failing to record four shots or more in two of the three - and the exception came in Buffalo.

Expect the Hurricanes to keep Thompson's shot total down in this game.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Rickard Rakell over 2.5 shots

Rakell owns extremely unique splits. He's recorded three shots or more in two of six games in Pittsburgh, where he's averaged just 3.5 attempts per night.

He's hit the over in three of four road games and posted astronomically high shot numbers. He's averaging 4.5 shots on goal and 8.5 shot attempts away from home. Those are the kind of numbers you'd expect from David Pastrnak or Kirill Kaprizov.

The stars are aligning for another productive road showing from Rakell. While the Ducks have performed better than expected this season, that's a byproduct of offense rather than defense. They're still giving up a lot of shots on a nightly basis, and shooters like Rakell benefit greatly from that.

It's also worth noting the Ducks are Rakell's former team. He's enjoyed great success against them since being dealt to the Penguins, recording 14 shots and 22 attempts over the span of three games - all of which he hit the over in. We should see more of the same this time around.

Odds: +100 (playable to -130)

Nathan MacKinnon over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon is a monster on home ice. He has a 61% success rate when playing in Colorado since the beginning of last season. He's averaged 5.1 shots on goal per game, which is as good as it gets in terms of volume.

Although MacKinnon has failed to reach five shots in two of three at home this year, it's important to look at the context of the games.

One was a decisive 4-1 victory over the Blues in which the Avalanche were playing from multiple goals ahead most of the night. The other was a four-shot, eight-attempt performance against the stingy Hurricanes.

A matchup against the Devils should be more in MacKinnon's wheelhouse. They play a very up-tempo, high-event brand of hockey that should benefit MacKinnon and his skill set.

That certainly appeared to be the case in 2022-23. MacKinnon attempted 10 shots in both games against the Devils while combining for 13 shots on target.

We should see an active offensive performance from MacKinnon against a team missing Hart Trophy candidate Jack Hughes and Selke finalist Nico Hischier down the middle of the ice.

Odds: -105 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday player props: Matthews to feast at home

We only have four games on the docket Monday night, and yet many of the league's brightest stars are in action.

Let's take a closer look at a few worth backing.

Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots

Matthews is firing on all cylinders at home. He's averaging 5.8 shots on goal - and 9.2 shot attempts - when playing in Toronto. He's performed drastically worse on the road, generating an average of 3.7 shots on 6.2 attempts.

He has three hat tricks through just five games at home, which is remarkable.

I expect him to build on his success against the Lightning. They've given up a lot of shot volume in the early going of this season, ranking 27th in five-on-five shots on goal against per 60 minutes.

Volume shooters like Matthews are in prime positions to exploit the Lightning, and we've already seen that. Matthews attempted 11 shots when he faced the Bolts earlier in the year, and that was on the road.

With more advantageous matchups on home ice, Matthews should be able to pile up the shots.

Odds: +110 (playable to -125)

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots

Hintz is off to a very strong shooting start. He's recorded at least three shots on goal in six of nine appearances thus far. Despite missing a game, nobody on the Stars has tallied more shots on goal than Hintz.

Although the Bruins are a good team, they're susceptible to giving up shots versus centers. Center duos of Dylan Larkin and Andrew Copp, Matthews and John Tavares, and Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish have combined for nine shots against Boston. Anton Lundell recently registered five on his own. You get the point.

Centers are generating steady volume against the Bruins. Considering what we've seen out of Hintz, there's no reason to expect any different from him tonight.

Hintz will play a lot of minutes in what should be a very competitive game between two of the best teams in the league. Expect him to pick up a few shots along the way.

Odds: -110 (playable to -120)

Connor McDavid over 3.5 shots

Things couldn't be going much worse for the Oilers. They have two wins through 10 games and sit only ahead of a historically bad Sharks team in the standings.

Although McDavid isn't exactly to blame for their poor start, it's fair to say he hasn't been at his usual level of dominance.

He's recorded two goals and 10 points thus far while generating shots and chances at a lesser rate than we've grown accustomed to seeing. Again, McDavid isn't responsible for the Oilers' issues. But everyone knows he can mask a lot of them by taking things up a notch.

I expect that's what we'll see against the Canucks. McDavid's had their number of late, amassing 10 points and 26 shots on goal in the past five games against them. Those are the kind of outputs the Oilers need from McDavid to get back on track.

He's played only two games over the past eight days, giving his injury some time to heal. That should help.

So should his linemates. McDavid is playing on a loaded top line alongside Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, both of whom help boost McDavid's efficiency in terms of upping shot outputs. Win or lose, I expect McDavid to be firing in this one.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Friday best bets: Bratt, Devils to make noise vs. Blues

Thursday was not our night. The Maple Leafs lost in a shootout, the Oilers couldn't translate 49 shots into enough goals against Stars backup Scott Wedgewood, and we were hooked left, right, and center on the shot props. Tough stuff.

Although there are only two games to pick from on Friday night, there's still some value to be had. Let's look at the best ways to attack the slate.

Devils (-160) @ Blues (+135)

The Blues certainly look like one of the league's worst teams. They haven't accomplished much offensively, scoring just 1.53 goals per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That slots them 30th, ahead of only the vastly declining Capitals and winless Sharks.

Making matters worse, their defensive game is anything but stable. They concede shots at a higher rate than every team but the Sharks and are also near the basement when it comes to preventing expected goals.

Put it all together and you have a team that ranks 28th in goal share and 29th in expected goal share at five-on-five. Not great.

On the flip side, even without two-way star Nico Hischier, the Devils look more and more like the well-oiled machine we saw a season ago.

Jack Hughes leads the league in scoring, Jesper Bratt is third in points, Tyler Toffoli has seven goals through nine games, Timo Meier is riding a six-game point streak, and the team's underlying process continues to improve.

Even against a solid Wild team that got Matt Boldy back in the lineup on Thursday night, the Devils won the expected goal battle by a puck and a half and generated seven more high-quality chances than they allowed.

There isn't much of a talent difference - if any - between Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid, and the Devils have a lot of young legs in their lineup. The back-to-back situation shouldn't impact them as much as most teams.

Look for the Devils to take care of business within 60 minutes.

Bet: Devils in regulation (+100)

Jesper Bratt over 2.5 shots

No Hischier, no problem. The Devils' star winger hasn't skipped a beat without the captain by his side. Bratt has piled up eight points and nine shots in less than three full contests since Hischier went down with an injury.

Bratt remains a focal point on the league's best power play and has taken on more of a shooting role at five-on-five. No forward has attempted more shots than Bratt over the last three games, which is no small feat considering the Devils roster high-end snipers like Meier, Hughes, and Toffoli.

Bratt is skating on a line with Ondrej Palat and Michael McLeod, both of whom are distributors rather than shooters. That translates into more opportunities for Bratt - and he's clearly taking advantage.

The Blues give up a ton of shot volume on a nightly basis. I don't think they'll be able to slow Bratt down.

Dylan Cozens over 0.5 points

Cozens has recorded a point in four of the Sabres' past five home games, failing only to get the job done against the Stanley Cup-contending Avalanche.

I like his chances of continued success against Philadelphia. Selke candidate Sean Couturier is banged up and not expected to play, which takes a bite out of Philadelphia's two-way game.

The absence of starting goaltender Carter Hart should also greatly benefit Cozens and the Sabres. He's performed exactly to expectation this season based on workload. His backup, Samuel Ersson, has also conceded eight goals more than expected through just three games.

Facing Ersson or Cal Petersen - who played his way out of the NHL with a pair of bad seasons in Los Angeles - should lead to an extra goal or two for the Sabres, meaning Cozens has even more opportunities to get involved.

He will get his fair share of ice time at even strength and is a key contributor on the top power play. Up against weak goaltending, I like his chances of finding the scoresheet.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday best bets: Maple Leafs to cool off streaking Bruins

Headlined by a pair of inner-conference battles between teams expected to contend for the Stanley Cup, we have a juicy slate of games ahead of us on Thursday night.

Let's look at the best ways to attack them.

Maple Leafs (-110) @ Bruins (-110)

The Bruins are off to a remarkable 8-0-1 start and haven't missed a beat following the notable offseason losses of Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and Tyler Bertuzzi.

While they remain one of the top teams in the league, this is a good opportunity to sell high.

The Bruins will be without star defenseman Charlie McAvoy due to suspension. It's hard to overstate how big of a hit that is to the Bruins.

McAvoy logs nearly 24 minutes per game against top competition each night. He doesn't just win those minutes; he dominates them. McAvoy owns a 57% expected goal share at five-on-five and has helped the Bruins outscore their opponents by six goals in that state.

The Bruins have only beaten opponents by a pair of goals without McAvoy on the ice, and their xG share is 7.5% lower. They are nowhere close to as good without McAvoy.

Although the Maple Leafs don't have a ton of depth, they have a pair of lethal duos in the top six. The Bruins will have a much tougher time slowing them down without McAvoy in the lineup.

This is also a spot where I expect the Leafs to have their fastball. They are coming off a complete dud of a performance against the Kings and will be looking to get back on track - and make a statement - against one of their biggest rivals.

The Leafs know they'll have to fight tooth and nail with the Bruins all year long in order to get to where they want to go. They'll put their best foot forward in this game, and without McAvoy, it should be enough.

Bet: Maple Leafs (-110)

Stars (+120) @ Oilers (-140)

The Oilers are a much better team than their record indicates. They have controlled better than 56% of the expected goals share at five-on-five this season, which is one of the best marks in the league.

Although that hasn't yet translated to results, it's a recipe for success over the long haul - especially when coupled with one of the league's most dangerous power plays.

The Stars are a handful to deal with, but there are some things working in the Oilers' favor here. For one, the Stars played on Wednesday. That means their tanks won't be full, and, more importantly, they won't have Jake Oettinger between the pipes.

Oettinger has saved more than six goals above expectation through six starts. That's elite-level goaltending.

His tandem mate, Scott Wedgewood, has allowed a pair of goals above expectation through two starts. It's a small sample size, sure, but we've seen a massive drop-off when Oettinger isn't in net.

That should be problematic going up against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the high-powered Oilers attack.

The Oilers have been out of action since Sunday, meaning McDavid's had a handful of days to rest up and get closer to full health.

He knows how important it is for the Oilers to right the ship following their dreadful start (record-wise), and he knows this is a big measuring stick game against one of the best teams in the league.

I think McDavid will turn things up a notch and lead the charge en route to an important home win.

Bet: Oilers (-140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: Hughes to stay hot vs. Sharks

We have a monster 11-game slate ahead of us on Thursday night. Let's jump right into a few of my favorite plays on the board.

Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 shots

Kaprizov is back on home ice - and we want a piece of the fun. Dating back to last season, Kaprizov has averaged 4.2 shots in Minnesota while attempting more than eight shots per contest. That translates to a success rate that's 22% higher at home than on the road.

His team has also been out of action since Sunday. Last year, he averaged 4.7 shots per game in situations following three full days off to rest - which is the situation he finds himself in on Thursday.

The Devils are a solid shot-suppression team, but captain Nico Hischier - who was a Selke finalist in 2022-23 - is out with an injury. That takes a big bite out of the lineup and makes the Devils a weaker squad at five-on-five and while killing penalties.

Additionally, New Jersey is struggling with discipline this season. Only five teams have taken more minors per game, meaning Kaprizov should have plenty of opportunities on the power play with extra time and space to generate shots.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Jakob Chychrun over 2.5 shots

Chychrun failed to get the job done last time out, but there's plenty of reason to go right back to the well. He's registered at least three shots on goal in nine of the last 10 games in which he logged 25 minutes of ice time or more.

With cluster injuries on defense, Senators head coach D.J. Smith is giving his star rearguard all the time he can handle: Chychrun has played over 27 minutes in each of Ottawa's last two contests.

In his first outing with this massive workload, Chychrun attempted 14 shots. He didn't hit his total against the Penguins, but it wasn't for a lack of trying. The blue-liner attempted a team-leading seven shots; he simply missed the net five times.

I will happily take my chances with that kind of volume, which is what we can reliably expect with Chychrun all but certain to play 25 minutes once again.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Quinn Hughes over 2.5 shots

Hughes is scorching hot. He's piled up three shots or more in seven straight games and eight of nine on the season. It's crystal clear that Hughes' plan to fire more pucks at the net wasn't just lip service. He's doing it every single night.

The volume we're seeing from Hughes is astronomically high for a defenseman. He's attempted 7.8 shots per game this season, which is directly in line with that of Kaprizov - and the latter has his total set at 3.5.

I don't know that Hughes can sustain this level of production over an entire campaign, but a date with the Sharks is not the time to pull the plug. They rank dead last in shot suppression so far and give up more shots per game to opposing defenders than any other team.

Expect Hughes to test Kaapo Kahkonen early and often in this one.

Odds: -135 (playable to -160)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Wednesday best bets: Avalanche to rebound at home

Tuesday night was an underwhelming one on the ice. The Kings and Maple Leafs played to a sweat-free under of 6.5, but neither Filip Forsberg nor Brock Boeser came through on their shot props in order to give us a profitable night.

We'll look to bounce back with a pair of best bets for Wednesday's card.

Blues (+195) @ Avalanche (-230)

The Blues may own a 3-3-1 record, but they sure look like one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. They've been horrific at both ends of the ice.

Only the Sharks have allowed shots at a higher clip during five-on-five play. The Blues give up quantity and quality, which is a recipe for disaster against Nathan MacKinnon and the high-powered Avalanche.

St. Louis has also struggled to generate offense at full strength. Not so coincidentally, the Sharks are the only team creating fewer expected goals per 60 minutes.

If not for Jordan Binnington and his sparkling .926 save percentage, things would look a whole lot worse.

Binnington's career save percentage sits at .907 through well over 200 games. We have plenty of data to suggest he's playing over his head right now. When he inevitably comes back to earth, things will get ugly in a hurry for the Blues.

The Avalanche could thump St. Louis. They're rightfully considered one of the true Stanley Cup contenders and are coming off back-to-back shutout defeats. Yes, two in a row.

They're back at home, they're angry, and they're no doubt chomping at the bit to get the miserable taste from their road trip out of their mouths.

The Avalanche own a 6-2 record, and all but one of their victories was by multiple goals (they outshot San Jose 52-21 in the exception).

Conversely, all but one of the Blues' defeats this season has come by multiple goals.

While it'd certainly be preferable for Cale Makar to play, I expect the Avalanche to take care of business with or without him.

Bet: Avalanche -1.5 (+105)

Coyotes (-130) @ Ducks (+110)

The Coyotes and Ducks have played in plenty of high-scoring affairs this season, but there are reasons to believe this game will be different.

At or near the top of the list is the goaltending matchup. Karel Vejmelka versus Lukas Dostal won't exactly pop off the page to the average viewer, but it's a really good battle.

Vejmelka owns a .926 save percentage through five games and has shown the ability to steal games with 40-50-plus-save performances when called upon in recent years.

Meanwhile, Dostal has goaltender-of-the-future potential in Anaheim. He finished higher than John Gibson in goals saved above expected last year and has looked nothing short of spectacular this season.

Dostal has posted a .921 save percentage behind an inexperienced Ducks defense that gives up its share of opportunities. He's already saved 5.8 goals above expectation, which ranks inside the league's top five.

Dostal finds himself in company with names like Thatcher Demko, Jake Oettinger, and Alexandar Georgiev. Pretty good.

There will likely be plenty of chances in this game. The Coyotes lack firepower beyond their top few players - even more so with Jason Zucker sidelined - and the Ducks are quite top-heavy as well.

Considering there isn't much pop in either bottom six, and since the goaltending should be strong at both ends, I see this total as half a puck too high.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday best bets: Boeser to prey on Predators

We started the week with a mixed bag on the ice. Two of our three shot props came through as winners. Unfortunately, we lost our under by the hook and the Golden Knights blew a lead late in the third, thus failing to claim a regulation win.

We'll look to rebound with a few plays for an abnormally light Tuesday in the NHL.

Kings (+140) @ Maple Leafs (-160)

The Maple Leafs are quietly on a nice little run of unders. Five of their past six games featured six goals or fewer. Excluding overtime, Toronto's last contest to have seven goals was its second of the year, which was against the Wild.

While there have been bumps along the way defensively, the Leafs have mostly done a good job in their own zone. They sit seventh in shots allowed per 60 at five-on-five this season. They also don't take many penalties, and the workload isn't too difficult for their goaltenders.

When things do get dicey, Joseph Woll has shown the ability to hold down the fort as the last line of defense. He owns a .961 save percentage and leads the league in goals saved above expected.

He won't post those kinds of numbers forever, but I think he's more than capable of doing the job for a Leafs team that's limiting shots against.

I expect the Kings will do their part to keep the scoring down as well. They rank top five in shots and expected goals against at five-on-five. They're a veteran team that plays with great structure, and they don't give up a whole whack of opportunities on any given night.

That hasn't translated to low goal outputs thus far since the netminding has been horrific. An .870 save percentage is low for even a tandem of Pheonix Copley and Cam Talbot.

The latter will be in goal Tuesday, and his numbers are drastically better than Copley's. That's a plus for the under.

Given how well the Kings and Leafs suppress shots at five-on-five, and since neither parades to the box on a nightly basis, this has the makings of a tight and relatively low-scoring affair.

Bet: Under 6.5 (+100)

Filip Forsberg over 3.5 shots

Forsberg is a one-man shooting gallery. He's registered at least four shots in six of eight games, landing on three shots in the outliers. His success is a byproduct of drastically improved shot volume under new Predators coach Andrew Brunette.

Forsberg averages 8.6 shot attempts per game this season, which is among the league's highest marks. Brunette wants his best players to have the puck as much as possible and gives them the freedom to be creative when they do. Clearly, it's paying off for Forsberg.

The Predators recently replaced Juuso Parssinen as the top-line right-winger, opting to use Gustav Nyquist instead. That's a welcome change for Forsberg as his volume has increased even more with Nyquist on his opposite side.

Forsberg has averaged more than 30 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play with Nyquist on his line. That's insane production.

He's also the go-to shooter on the power play, and the Canucks are one of the league's worst shot-suppression sides while shorthanded.

Forsberg had four shots on eight attempts when the two sides met last week. I expect a similar output this time around.

Odds: -122 (playable to -140)

Brock Boeser over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and Brock Boeser at home. He's gone over his total in all three games in Vancouver this season. Boeser has averaged five shots on goal and nearly seven attempts in those games. He's not just sneaking by - he's getting the job done with room to spare.

Boeser's hot streak in Vancouver is nothing new. Dating back to last season, he's hit in nine of his past 10 games on home ice.

The Predators have tailed off at five-on-five after a strong start. Their shot share now sits at 46% in that game state, meaning Boeser and the Canucks could do some damage at even strength.

Nashville also has a very poor penalty-killing unit, and Boeser's shot is a weapon of choice when the Canucks are up a man.

This is a sneaky good spot for Boeser to continue firing away.

Odds: -125 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Monday best bets: Golden Knights to pounce on Canadiens

We are coming off a disappointing Saturday card. Although the Predators pulled off the plus money upset at home against the Maple Leafs, both player props lost to give us a down night.

Kyle Connor and Jakob Chychrun fell one shot shy of glory while combining to miss the net eight times. The process was good, but the results weren't.

We'll look to get back on the horse and put together a winning card for a surprisingly large Monday slate.

Kraken (+135) @ Lightning (-165)

The Kraken love themselves some unders. Despite rocky goaltending at times, Seattle has gone below a 6.5 total in seven of nine games this season.

The club ranks closer to the bottom of the league in expected goal generation. Skilled winger Andre Burakovsky's long-term injury won't help matters.

I don't see the Kraken as a team that can outscore shortcomings in goal at the best of times. Without Burakovsky, they should be even more determined to lock things down and keep games as uneventful as possible.

The Lightning aren't likely to have a problem with that. Without Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes, the Bolts have little interest in playing run-and-gun hockey. Tampa Bay wants to make life as easy as possible for Jonas Johansson, who has held up surprisingly well thus far.

I'm not expecting the Lightning to generate a ton on this slow, structured Kraken team. Conversely, Seattle is struggling mightily to score at even strength, and Tampa has spent less time shorthanded than any team. This isn't a spot where offense should come easy to the Kraken.

Bet: Under 6.5 (-115)

Canadiens (+200) @ Golden Knights (-245)

The Canadiens are off to a solid 5-2-1 start, but I'm not buying what they're selling. Their early success appears to be smoke and mirrors.

Montreal has allowed 2.96 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, ranking 30th in the league. That's translated to only 1.20 goals allowed per 60 minutes.

The Canadiens also spend more time shorthanded per game than any NHL club and possess atrocious defensive metrics while undermanned.

Jake Allen is great and all, but Montreal needs to be drastically better to stay afloat when he and his teammates come back down to earth.

A road date with the Golden Knights is a good spot for that to happen. Vegas is showing no sign of a Stanley Cup hangover, winning eight of nine games thus far and claiming at least a point in each.

Jack Eichel is firing on all cylinders, William Karlsson looks rejuvenated, Shea Theodore is performing like one of the best offensive defensemen in the league, and the team is getting good goaltending.

I think the Golden Knights will outplay the Canadiens at five-on-five, and they have a big special teams advantage to boot.

Vegas should be able to snap Montreal's mini-winning streak and pick up a victory inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Monday player props: 3 forwards to target at home

With nine games scheduled for Monday night, we have an abnormally large plate of games to begin the week.

Let's waste no time in getting to a few of my favorite shot props on the board.

Mathew Barzal over 2.5 shots

Barzal is shooting the puck more this season, especially on home ice. He's averaged 6.2 attempts per game on Long Island and registered at least three shots in all five games.

We're still dealing with a small sample size, but Barzal failed to go over the number in both road games and generated less than half the volume.

Barzal is back home tonight in a sneaky-good matchup against the Red Wings. Although they look much improved this season, that's more a byproduct of Alex DeBrincat and the offense as opposed to stout defensive play.

The Red Wings rank in the bottom 10 when it comes to five-on-five shot suppression. They've also taken penalties at an above-average rate, opening the door for plenty of extra shooting opportunities for those featured on the power play.

Odds: +103 (playable to -125)

Jason Robertson over 3.5 shots

Robertson is off to a slow start to the year but appears to be coming out of his shell. After failing to hit his shot total in four straight to begin the season, Robertson has bounced back with consecutive hits.

The volume was strong in those games. Robertson averaged five shots on goal and eight attempts between a road matchup in Pittsburgh and a home game against a solid Maple Leafs squad.

The fun should continue for Robertson on Monday night. He'll square off against a Blue Jackets side that continues to bleed shots each and every night.

Only the Sharks and Canadiens have allowed more shots per minute across all situations. The Blue Jackets remain lost defensively despite the personnel changes made during the offseason.

Expect a vintage Robertson performance against a Blue Jackets team allowing nearly 33 shots per game.

Odds: +100 (playable to -130)

Jack Eichel over 3.5 shots

Eichel has recorded at least four shots in six of nine games thus far and is in the perfect spot to continue his shooting success.

For one, Eichel is at home. He's averaged an extra 1.2 shot attempts per game in Vegas this season, so that's a nice feather in the cap.

More importantly, though, is the mouthwatering matchup against the Canadiens. They give up a ton of shots at even strength and have spent more time killing penalties than anybody else on a per-game basis. It's a prime matchup for Eichel to do damage in any game state.

The Canadiens also struggle immensely against opposing centers. No team in the NHL allows more shots per game to the position.

To summarize, the Canadiens are bad defensively, can't stay out of the box, don't have the ability to control matchups on the road, and no team has fared worse versus Eichel's position thus far. He should have a field day.

Odds: -125 (playable to -140)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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