All posts by Todd Cordell

NHL Thursday best bets: Backing 2 road warriors

We have a fun eight-game slate ahead of us Thursday night. Let's take a look at a couple of my favorite ways to attack it.

Senators (-120) @ Blues (+100)

The Senators have traded wins and losses of late, but they've quietly posted some very strong underlying numbers.

Even without top defenseman Thomas Chabot, they've shown the ability to consistently outchance their opponents.

They've won the expected goals battle in five of the past six games, coming 0.17 short in the lone exception against a Hurricanes team known for its five-on-five dominance.

The Senators' mediocre defense and inconsistent goaltending mean their positive chance differentials aren't always going to lead to results.

It should be a different story against a team like the Blues. They've struggled at five-on-five all season long. While the team recently fired head coach Craig Berube, the reality is this Blues team simply isn't very good.

They have a lot of players providing nowhere close to the value they're being paid to bring. A lot of said players are veterans on the back nine of their careers, meaning there isn't much reason to expect a sudden change.

I think the Senators' team speed and skill up front will cause a lot of problems for a declining Blues side making schematic adjustments under a new coach.

Look for Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and the Senators' big guns to exploit this vulnerable Blues defense.

Bet: Senators (-120)

Panthers (-120) @ Canucks (+100)

One of the trademarks of a great team is having a response when things go the other way. That's been the Panthers' calling card all season. They've lost two consecutive games only once since Oct. 14.

I expect their streak to continue at least a little longer. The Panthers are a well-oiled machine that can win in so many different ways.

At five-on-five, they continue to generate shots in bulk while allowing very few. Their penalty kill is near the top of the league in almost every key metric, and the power play is very dangerous. It's hard to get an edge over the Panthers in any area.

I think they're going to be able to control the run of play at even strength in this game. The Canucks' season numbers are pretty good but have dipped of late. They've controlled just over 46% of the expected goals share in December, nearly 10% lower than the Panthers.

The Canucks also continue to struggle on the penalty kill. Over the last 10 games, they sit 21st in expected goals against and 26th in goals against while undermanned.

That spells trouble heading into a game against Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, and some of the Panthers' lethal power-play weapons.

I think the Panthers are going to come out hungry after their worst performance of the season in Seattle.

Given the Panthers are performing at good-to-great levels in every game state, they're poised to cool off a Canucks side that's generated a league-low 63 shots over its three-game winning streak.

Bet: Panthers (-120)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: Matthews to sting Blue Jackets

One of the league's co-leaders in goals, Auston Matthews, headlines Thursday's list of players worth backing - or fading - in the prop market.

Let's take a closer look.

Auston Matthews: Over 4.5 shots

Matthews is shooting the puck like there's no tomorrow. He's attempted at least 10 shots in five of his past seven games, with the exceptions coming against a pair of low-event teams in the Rangers and Kraken.

He finds himself in a big pace-up spot Thursday night against the Blue Jackets. They've bled shots all season long and are showing no signs of defensive improvement. They rank dead last in shots allowed per game over the last 10.

A lot of the volume they give up comes from opposing centers. Columbus sits 27th in shots allowed per game versus the position on the year and over the last 10.

That should help raise Matthews' floor and ceiling, as should home ice. He owns a 54% success rate in Toronto this season and is averaging just under five shots on goal per game.

That's a stark contrast from his road numbers, where Matthews is producing 3.9 shots per contest and has fallen short of his total in 10 of 13 appearances.

Look for Matthews to make the most of home ice and a mouthwatering matchup.

Odds: -122 (playable to -135)

Cam Atkinson: Over 2.5 shots

Atkinson is a machine at home. He's averaging 3.4 shots per contest in Philadelphia and has gone over his total in 11 of 13 games. That equates to a juicy 85% success rate.

Sean Couturier eats up all the difficult matchups at home, freeing Atkinson for plenty of offensive-zone starts against lesser competition. He's making the most of it on a nightly basis.

The Capitals have conceded nearly 33 shots per game over the last 10, which ranks them in the bottom 10. They do give up plenty of volume, and Atkinson figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries.

Atkinson recently did the job against the Devils, Hurricanes, Golden Knights, and Kings. He should have little problem generating three shots against the Capitals.

Odds: -110 (playable to -140)

Kirill Kaprizov: Under 3.5 shots

Kaprizov hasn't been a prolific shooter under new head coach John Hynes. He's gone under his total in six of seven games, finishing at two or fewer in each failure. Those are not the kind of numbers we're accustomed to seeing from Kaprizov.

Although his average attempt volume looks pretty good, the numbers are heavily inflated by a 16-attempt performance. For perspective, he's averaging just over 6.5 when excluding that game. It's much tougher to get four shots on net with those outputs.

The Flames aren't great, but they don't give up a ton of shots, nor do they take many penalties. They profile as a team that should be able to keep Kaprizov to a manageable number.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday player props: Hughes to feast on undermanned Bruins

Tuesday was a tough night on the ice. After sweeping our player props to begin the week, all three of our bets Tuesday fell short - two by a single shot - to bring us back to .500 through two days of action.

We'll look to get back on track with three more player props for Wednesday's card.

Jack Hughes: Over 4.5 shots

We've targeted Hughes time and time again in recent weeks with great success. His shot volume has been high all season long, but he's taken it to another level since returning from injury, particularly at home.

Hughes has generated 37 shots on 60 attempts in just five games. That equates to 7.4 shots and 12 attempts per contest, which is the highest volume you'll see from anybody in the NHL. He's firing on all cylinders right now.

A date with the Bruins doesn't seem like the best matchup on the surface. The numbers tell a different story. They've conceded 32.9 shots per game over the last 10, which is more than all but five teams.

Boston is also missing some key personnel. Top defenseman Charlie McAvoy is sidelined with an injury, as is one of the team's better centers in Pavel Zacha.

With Hughes shooting at an unmatched rate and McAvoy not around to try and shadow him, I expect another big offensive performance in this one.

Odds: +103 (playable to -135)

Frank Vatrano: Over 3.5 shots

Vatrano is sizzling-hot. He's registered at least four shots in seven of his past 10 games, averaging 4.3 on more than seven attempts per night.

Vatrano faced a top-tier team in each game he fell short, recording two shots against the Avalanche (twice) and three against the Kings.

Put another way, Vatrano consistently did the job against anything less than high-end competition. The Islanders certainly don't classify as such, at least defensively.

They've bled shots all season long, and things are only getting worse. The Islanders rank dead last in shots against - at five-on-five and across all game situations - over the last 10 games. They've won games on the back of their offense and goaltending, not defense.

Vatrano should have ample opportunity to shoot from anywhere in the offensive zone against this Islanders defense. Look for him to make the most of a pace-up spot.

Odds: +100 (playable to -120)

Rasmus Dahlin: Over 2.5 shots

The Sabres and Avalanche both play very fast. Their team speed pops off the screen, and the numbers back it up. Buffalo and Colorado are each in the top seven in five-on-five pace - gauged by the combined shot volume generated and allowed - over the past 10 games. Lots of skating, lots of shots.

That should bode well for Dahlin. He's an effortless skater who's always ready and willing to get up in the play offensively.

Dahlin has recorded at least three shots in six consecutive games, logging at least 25 minutes in four of them.

The Sabres are leaning on him heavily as they try and dig their way out of a big early-season hole. With a hefty workload coming in a high-pace matchup, Dahlin is in a prime spot to go over his total for a seventh straight contest.

Odds: -102 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Tuesday player props: Ehlers to step up in Connor’s absence

We swept the board with our player props to start the week. Auston Matthews and Brock Nelson both soared over their totals with plenty of room to spare, while the Coyotes limited Tage Thompson just enough to cash our under.

We'll look to pick up where we left off with three more props for Tuesday's big slate.

Alexis Lafreniere: Over 2.5 shots

Lafreniere has quietly piled up the shots of late. He's registered at least three in seven of his past 10 games, with the unders coming against the Flyers, Kings, and Predators. The former two are among the five best shot-suppression teams in the NHL, while the Predators are in the middle of the pack.

Lafreniere has gotten the job done in almost any remotely good matchup. He finds himself with a great one Tuesday night.

The Maple Leafs' defense wasn't great to start the campaign, and it's been missing multiple regulars for quite some time. That shows in the numbers as they rank in the bottom five in shot suppression over the last 10 games.

This defense is vulnerable. I think it'll have a tough time handling the fantastic offensive combination of Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, and Artemi Panarin, especially in the latter half of a road back-to-back.

Expect Lafreniere to stay hot and make the most of a high-event matchup.

Odds: +120 (playable to -120)

Connor McDavid: Over 3.5 shots

McDavid has proven to be matchup-dependent this season.

Let's use the past 10 games as a reference. McDavid failed to get the job done against strong defensive teams like the Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Jets, and Panthers. Versus clubs with issues defensively, or in contests that turned into track meets (like against the Ducks and Lightning), he hit the over on his total.

The good news for McDavid is the Blackhawks most certainly have defensive problems. They're very inexperienced and lack the talent to sustain shifts in the offensive zone, meaning they spend a lot of time on their heels. As a result, only four teams have conceded more shots per game this season.

McDavid is starting to heat up offensively, and after a dreadful start to the year, the Oilers need every point they can get. They can't afford to take teams lightly, so it should be pedal to the metal for the league's best player.

Odds: -110 (playable to -135)

Nikolaj Ehlers: Over 3.5 shots

Kyle Connor suffered a knee injury last time out, opening the door for Ehlers to take on a much larger offensive role. Ehlers finds himself skating on the top line at even strength as well as on the power play.

This led to more than 20 minutes of ice time for Ehlers, which is huge for him. He's always generated shots at a very efficient clip, he just didn't get the usage to be a consistent shot prop target. That'll change now.

Dating back to last season, Ehlers has averaged 8.3 attempts per game when logging 20-plus minutes. If that's the kind of volume we're looking at, he'd need to hit the net on only half of his attempts to get the job done.

Shooting opportunities should be there in bulk for Ehlers on Tuesday. He finds himself in a mouthwatering spot against a Sharks team allowing a league-worst 36.7 shots on goal per contest.

Odds: +115 (playable to -115)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL weekend preview: Devils, Blues worth backing on the road

As usual, we're heading toward a jam-packed Saturday in the NHL, as 24 of the league's 32 teams will be in action.

Let's take a closer look at a couple of clubs worth backing.

Devils @ Flames

Dec. 9, 4 p.m. ET

The Devils are firing on all cylinders since getting captain Nico Hischier back in the lineup. They've won five of six games, losing only to the Sharks in a contest in which they held a 47-18 shot advantage. Go figure.

New Jersey has posted fantastic underlying metrics since Hischier's return, controlling 59.57% of the expected goals at five-on-five. That's a top-tier rate.

With their captain in the lineup, the Devils have a center who can eat up difficult minutes and dominate at both ends of the ice. It makes them better defensively and takes some of the load off Jack Hughes, ensuring he doesn't need to find the scoresheet a couple of times a night for his team to win.

New Jersey looks the part of the elite five-on-five club everyone expected. Factor in that the Devils also have the league's best power play, and it's no coincidence they're piling up wins.

I expect that to continue Saturday afternoon in Calgary. The Flames lack high-end talent up front, have middling five-on-five metrics, and will likely struggle to keep up with the Devils' high-powered offense.

Jacob Markstrom's absence is also problematic. He has quietly had a solid campaign, while Dustin Wolf (minus-1.8) and Dan Vladar (minus-4.6) don't grade out well in goals saved above expected. If Calgary doesn't get good goaltending, New Jersey's firepower could cause a world of problems.

I see edges all over the ice in this game and expect the Devils to grind out another win against the Flames. I would play them up to -135.

Blues @ Blackhawks

Dec. 9, 8 p.m. ET

The Blues go as Jordan Binnington does. Even after getting bombarded by the Golden Knights, he still owns a .912 save percentage and has saved more than nine goals above expectation. He has been one of the better goaltenders in the league this season when also factoring in his difficult workload.

After being lit up by Vegas on Wednesday, the expectation is St. Louis will start Joel Hofer versus the Blue Jackets on Friday night.

That would mean the Blues turn back to Binnington against the Blackhawks on Saturday.

Chicago is truly horrendous across the board. Its goaltending is inconsistent, and the defense is terrible. The Blackhawks also have next to no reliable offensive contributors beyond Connor Bedard. It's a one-man show.

I'm not high on the Blues by any stretch, but they're clearly the better team. They aren't going to give up many opportunities to the Blackhawks, and Binnington should be able to put out the rare fire in front of him.

Assuming Binnington is in net, I'd play the Blues up to -150.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Thursday player props: Jack Hughes to stay hot in Seattle

Wednesday was another solid night for player props, as we were one Aleksander Barkov shot shy of a sweep.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for Thursday night's card.

Cam Atkinson: Over 2.5 shots

Atkinson has registered three shots or more in 18 of 25 games this season, good for a 72% hit rate.

He's in a good spot to continue his success against the Coyotes. They've won a lot of games in recent weeks but are still getting outshot more often than not.

The Coyotes rank 27th in five-on-five shot share over the past three weeks. They spend a lot of time on their heels when the playing field is level.

They also take a lot of penalties. Only seven teams are averaging more minors per game than the Coyotes.

With an advantageous five-on-five matchup and a healthy dose of power-play time likely coming his way, Atkinson is primed for another active shooting performance.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Quinn Hughes: Over 2.5 shots

Death, taxes, and backing Hughes at home. The superstar defenseman has been a model of consistency in Vancouver this season, going over his shot total in 10 of 12 games while averaging 3.7 shots on goal per game. Remarkable outputs.

The Wild have played better since making a change behind the bench but have given up a lot of volume to opposing defensemen in recent weeks. Only six teams have conceded more shots per game to the position over the past 10 contests.

The Canucks are also in a healthy rut, having dropped seven of their past 13 games. They're now as close to being in a wild-card spot as they are the top spot in the division. They must kick back into gear sooner rather than later, and they'll no doubt lean heavily on the captain to lead the way.

Odds: -122 (playable to -140)

Jack Hughes: Over 4.5 shots

Hughes is currently in a league of his own in terms of shot generation. He's piled up 95 attempts, 52 shots on target, and 49 scoring chances over eight games since returning to the Devils lineup. He leads the league in all of those categories during that span.

He isn't just picking on bottom-feeders, either. Hughes registered nine shots against the Rangers, nine against the Flyers, and six against the Canucks. Those are three opponents holding onto top-six spots in their respective conferences.

The Kraken are a strong shot-suppression team, but it doesn't seem to matter against Hughes. He's attempting so many shots and playing so many minutes that he's become matchup-proof.

With the Devils in need of every point they can get and consistently needing to outscore their goaltending woes, Hughes should be tasked with a massive workload once again. Expect him to take advantage.

Odds: +110 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday best bets: Canes to snap Oilers’ win streak

We had a perfect night on the ice Tuesday, winning both best bets - as well as all three player props.

Let's look at a couple sides worth backing as we try to stay hot.

Golden Knights (-160) @ Blues (+135)

The Blues have been a roller-coaster ride this season, seemingly following every win with a loss and vice versa.

I don't think it's a worthwhile trend to bet on but believe it says a lot about the Blues' lack of quality.

St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league in terms of five-on-five shot share. The same can be said of expected goals.

It's not a good team at full strength. Only one team - the Capitals - has scored fewer goals while on the power play. There isn't much to get excited about.

The Blues essentially win if the goaltending is very good and lose if it isn't. You can't rely on grade A netminding every night, hence the fluctuation in their results.

They ground out a win against the Golden Knights last time out, but it certainly wasn't deserved. Vegas dominated the puck and piled up the chances throughout, winning the expected goals battle 4.85-2.52.

I think that discrepancy shows how much of a gap there is in quality between the two sides. The Golden Knights are also as consistent and structured as they come. They often respond immediately following a loss, and I expect no different this time around.

Back the Golden Knights to flex their muscles at five-on-five and take home two points inside 60 minutes.

Bet: Golden Knights in regulation (-105)

Hurricanes (-105) @ Oilers (-115)

The Hurricanes dominate territorially every night. They've controlled 57% of the expected goals share at five-on-five this season, and those numbers are trending upward. Their xG share sits above 60% over the past couple of weeks.

Carolina is generating substantially more than it gives up regardless of the caliber of opponent. In their most recent game, the Hurricanes outshot a strong Jets team 43-22 in Winnipeg. Impressive stuff.

Although that didn't translate to a victory, they did everything but convert. That shouldn't be as much of an issue against the Oilers.

Stuart Skinner owns an .881 save percentage through 17 starts and ranks dead last in goals saved above expected at -9.2, putting him a couple goals clear of the next closest goaltender, Vitek Vanecek.

Shot volume is rarely an issue for the Hurricanes. That means a lot is going to be put on Skinner's shoulders - and we have no reason to believe he'll be able to handle it.

Although the Oilers are a strong five-on-five team in their own right, they aren't at the Hurricanes' level. They don't have the same depth up front and aren't as structured on the back end.

If the Hurricanes can stay disciplined and avoid parading to the box against Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they have a very good chance of snapping Edmonton's four-game winning streak.

Bet: Hurricanes (-105)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Wednesday player props: Barkov, Point in favorable matchups at home

We swept the board with our player props Tuesday night as the Hughes brothers and Jeff Skinner came through with big shooting performances.

We'll look to keep the ball rolling with three more plays for Wednesday's card.

Aleksander Barkov: Over 2.5 shots

The Stars are a strong defensive team, but their shot-suppression numbers are much worse away from home. They concede only 29 shots per game in Dallas compared to nearly 33.5 per game on the road. That ranks 27th in the NHL, just ahead of teams like the Canadiens, Senators, and Islanders.

Dallas is also vulnerable against opposing centers. It allows nearly 12 shots per game to the position, which also puts it in 27th place.

All of this should be music to Barkov's ears. He registered at least three shots in seven of his past 10 games and in four of the last five on home ice.

The Panthers center has been especially good in Florida, averaging 4.2 shots - and well over seven attempts - over his past five games.

He's a powerful player who goes to the dirty areas of the ice. Put another way, he often generates his shots close to the net so he doesn't need as many attempts to get the job done.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots

Point's volume at home compared to the road is night and day. He averages 3.2 shots per game at home and has gone over his total in 69% of his contests. He's produced just 2.3 shots per game on the road, and his 46% success rate is a 23% decrease from at home.

Those drastic splits are nothing new. Since the beginning of last season, Point's hit rate is 16% higher in Tampa Bay than on the road.

He's well-positioned to continue his success Wednesday night against the Penguins. They've quietly bled shots of late, allowing nearly 34 per game over the last 10. That ranks in the NHL's bottom five.

Point has a strong history against the Penguins as well, going over his total in five of the past seven head-to-head meetings.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Sebastian Aho: Over 2.5 shots

Aho is a shooting machine right now. He's recorded three shots or more in five of the past six games, piling up a total of 27 on 42 attempts.

What I love to see is that Aho hasn't just benefited from soft matchups. He's put forth monster six-shot performances against the Flyers and Jets during this stretch. Both teams rank in the top six in shot suppression this season, which bodes well heading into a matchup against the Oilers, another team in the top six.

Edmonton doesn't have a lot of burners on the back end. I think that could greatly benefit a player like Aho, who can turn on the jets to create some separation and lanes to get his shots off.

He isn't a perimeter player, either. He'll work to get to the dirty areas of the ice and be ready to pounce on any loose change Stuart Skinner spits out.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday best bets: Lightning to get revenge vs. Stars

We have a fun six-game slate on the docket to begin the week. Let's take a closer look at the best ways to attack it.

Stars (-115) @ Lightning (-105)

I think this is a great buy-low spot for the Lightning. Although the Bolts have dropped four consecutive games and five of the last eight, I think they are playing a lot better than their record indicates.

At five-on-five, Tampa Bay generated 2.81 expected goals per 60 minutes over the past eight games. That is a very healthy mark for any team. Despite all the shooting talent the Lightning possess, those outputs have translated to only 1.75 goals per 60 minutes. That's more than a full puck difference.

We have seen a similar story between the pipes. The Bolts have conceded 2.34 expected goals per 60, which slots them a hair outside the top 10. That has converted into 3.55 actual goals, a higher rate than all but the Ducks and Blues.

Put another way, the Lightning are not scoring as much as they deserve, and the chances they concede are ending up in the back of the net far too frequently.

That is not going to continue forever, especially with Andrei Vasilevskiy back in the fray.

Dallas completely embarrassed Tampa Bay last time out, winning 8-1 and leading from the first minute onwards.

I don't think that sat well with Jon Cooper and an experienced Lightning team used to dishing out rather than taking. Expect a much better effort, and perhaps some positive regression, from the Lightning in a game where a win is needed.

Bet: Lightning (-105)

Hurricanes (-125) @ Jets (+105)

The Hurricanes are a little underrated right now. I don't think they're getting enough respect for the powerhouse that they are. They rank fifth in the league in wins, and that is with the NHL's worst team save percentage. Yes, worst.

They have absolutely dominated teams at five-on-five. They generate chances in bulk while giving up very little. Their power play ranks in the top half of the league in scoring efficiency. Their penalty kill is elite. I could go on.

Top to bottom, the Hurricanes are playing like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. They're just not getting any saves.

While it is easy to point at their lack of a name-brand goaltender and say they're getting what they deserve, the Hurricanes used the exact same trio last season and finished top 15 in total save percentage. It's not as if they're putting everything on false hope.

With how well the Hurricanes limit chances, they don't even need their goaltenders to be good. They just can't be this bad.

That shouldn't be an issue against the Jets. They are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of shot and goal generation and don't have many high-end finishers.

If the Hurricanes get semi-respectable goaltending, they have a strong chance of winning.

The Hurricanes are absolutely tormenting teams at five-on-five right now, while the Jets rank 20th in expected goals share over the past couple of weeks. Getting Gabriel Vilardi back in the lineup helps, for sure, but it'll take some time before he's firing on all cylinders.

Look for the Hurricanes to grind out a road win against a solid Jets side.

Bet: Hurricanes (-125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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NHL Monday player props: Atkinson, Ovechkin among forwards to target

We picked up a clean sweep with our player props Friday night, with Jack Hughes and Thomas Chabot going over their shot totals, while Dawson Mercer got a point.

We'll look to pick up where we left off with a few of my favorite props for Monday's fruitful slate.

Cam Atkinson: Over 2.5 shots

Atkinson has been as consistent as anyone this season. He's averaging 3.2 shots on goal per game and has cleared his line in 17 of 24 appearances, including a remarkable 10 of 12 (83%) on home ice.

The Flyers winger can find success against anyone, not just teams that bleed shots like the Blue Jackets and Sharks.

Atkinson registered at least three shots against the Golden Knights, Kings, Devils, Hurricanes, and Rangers over the past 10 games. Those sides excel at limiting shots, yet Atkinson recorded four or more in four of those matchups.

I expect him to continue his success against the Penguins on Monday night. They've quietly given up a lot of shot volume of late, averaging a hair under 33 shots allowed per game over the last 10. Only seven teams have given up more.

With home ice in his back pocket and an advantageous shooting matchup, Atkinson should make noise.

Odds: -130 (playable to -150)

Brayden Point: Over 2.5 shots

Point is a completely different player at home - at least in terms of shooting the puck.

The Lightning's star pivot recorded three shots or more in nine of 12 games in Tampa Bay, averaging a healthy 3.3 per contest. That's a stark contrast from the 2.3 average he's managed on the road.

Point has a sneaky good matchup to stay hot at home. Although the Stars are a strong defensive team, they're susceptible to giving up volume against opposing centers. They rank bottom 10 in shots against versus the position.

I also like that there's plenty of motivation for the Lightning in this game. They've dropped four in a row, falling out of the playoffs as a result. They were also just embarrassed by the Stars last time out.

Dallas really needs a win and will be out for revenge against a team that just thumped it 8-1. We should see a steady dose of Point in this one, giving him ample opportunity to fire a few pucks on net.

Odds: -130 (playable to -150)

Alex Ovechkin: Over 3.5 shots

Ovechkin has become very matchup-dependent at this stage of his career. To generate the kind of volume we saw nightly for nearly two decades, he needs a weak shot-suppression defense and power-play opportunities. The Coyotes check both boxes.

While they've won a lot of games of late, that has more to do with stellar goaltending from Connor Ingram than improved defensive play. They're tied for 27th in shots against per game over the last eight.

The Coyotes also take a lot of penalties. Only seven teams have taken more minors per game, and they're 28th in shot suppression while undermanned.

Put another way, Arizona spends a lot of time in the box and gives up shots in bulk on the penalty kill. That should greatly benefit Ovechkin, who generates a lot of his volume on the power play.

Look for the Capitals star to get back on track in this one.

Odds: -110 (playable to -125)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, at @ToddCordell.

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