All posts by Todd Cordell

Target Fox, fade McDavid in Game 2s of conference finals

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The first game of each Conference series is behind us, meaning we have more data and matchup knowledge to work with.

We'll look to put that to use with some plays for a pair of Game 2s.

Matthew Tkachuk: Under 3.5 shots

Tkachuk has a very rocky shooting history against the Rangers. He's averaged just 4.6 shot attempts over his last nine games and has a ceiling of six. That doesn't give him much margin for error to clear this number.

Although Tkachuk found the back of the net in Game 1, he fared no better with his shot generation. He attempted only three shots, and his goal was the only time he hit the target.

The Rangers have allowed 28 or fewer shots in all but one home playoff game. They're trying to take the juice out of games, which won't help Tkachuk's cause.

Whether the Rangers rebound from a disappointing Game 1 or not, I don't expect to see much shot volume from Tkachuk.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Adam Fox: Over 1.5 shots

Fox has recorded multiple shots in 49 of 82 games this season, good for a healthy 60% success rate. He's also gone over his total in three of four games against the Panthers, producing 10 shots in that time (2.5 per).

Fox played just under 25 minutes in Game 1, a mark he's likely going to flirt with every game for as long as the Rangers continue playing.

That's certainly worth noting - Fox's hit rate unsurprisingly goes up the more ice time he gets.

Fox produced two or more shots in 31 of 45 games in which he logged at least 24 minutes of ice. That equates to a remarkable 69% success rate.

Given Fox's recent shooting surge (he has two-plus shots in 20 of the past 30), his success against the Panthers, and the likelihood he gets huge minutes as the Rangers fight to avoid going down 0-2 at home, I quite like his chances of picking up multiple shots in this game.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Parlay: McDavid under 3.5 shots with Stars +1.5 goals

This parlay didn't result in a Game 1 win as McDavid cleared his shooting line. He finished with exactly four shots, though, despite the game going to double overtime. As fate would have it, it was the last shot of the game in which McDavid recorded his fourth shot.

McDavid averaged just 2.9 shots per game on 5.1 attempts over his last 15 on the road.

He needed over 27 minutes of ice to hit four shots in the series opener. Barring overtime (again), he's likely to finish in the 22-23 minute range next time out.

For perspective, McDavid's hit rate is only 31% this season when playing 23 or fewer minutes. That number drops to 16% on the road - he's cleared in only five of 31 instances. Yes, you're reading that correctly.

The Stars are an elite defensive team and can't afford to drop the first two games at home. I expect them to tighten the screws even further and, if the game ends in regulation, keep McDavid under this number.

The odds for McDavid's under are juiced so I like adding the Stars on an alternate puckline of +1.5 goals to bring this close to even money. The Stars have covered +1.5 (meaning they've either won or lost by a single goal) in 11 of 14 playoff games.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Stars to clamp down on McDavid in Game 1

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Game 1 of the Western Conference Final begins Thursday night. Let's dive into a couple of the best ways to attack the series opener.

Wyatt Johnston: Over 0.5 points

With Roope Hintz' status for Game 1 in doubt, Johnston will get even more favorable usage than usual.

He's been skating between Jason Robertson and Logan Stankoven as the team's top-line center. During the regular season, Johnston averaged 3.67 points per 60 minutes with Stankoven on his line at five-on-five and nearly 3.30 points per 60 with Robertson. Those are truly elite rates.

Johnston is arguably the Stars' biggest threat at even strength. He's also skating on the top power-play unit, meaning he's getting big minutes in all situations alongside the team's best players.

Although the Oilers have defended well in these playoffs, they haven't faced a team as good as Dallas. They also have a shaky goaltender in Stuart Skinner, who's only managed a .880 save percentage through 10 playoff games.

There should be some goals on the table for the Stars in this game and series as a whole. Look for Johnston to get involved.

If Hintz does play, I'd still back Johnston to pick up a point. He'd shift down the lineup and face softer matchups. Any boost lost from playing with Robertson would be regained by spending less time against the Oilers' best players.

Odds: -135 (playable to -150)

Parlay: McDavid under 3.5 shots with Stars plus-1.5

Is Connor McDavid dealing with some form of injury? It sure seems that way. His shot outputs have dropped off a cliff in recent weeks.

The league's best player averaged 2.7 shots and just 4.5 attempts per game over his last 15. Those are noticeably lower totals than the 3.4 shots he averaged on nearly six attempts over the course of the entire season.

I don't think McDavid's drop-off - despite his average ice time increasing - can just be attributed to things tightening up in the playoffs. Even if that were the case, his task certainly won't get easier against the stingy Stars.

The Stars allowed only 28 shots per game in the regular season. They've shrunk that number further, giving up just 25.5 per contest in the playoffs.

Pete DeBoer teams are always very structured and stable defensively. Having defenders like Miro Heiskanen, Chris Tanev, and Thomas Harley allows the Stars to take things to another level.

Simply put, they're well-equipped to continue clamping down on McDavid and keep his shot volume in check.

I like parlaying McDavid's shots with the Stars on an alternate puck line of plus-1.5 goals.

The Stars are the best and most balanced team remaining in the playoffs. They're at home, they're extremely good defensively, and they tend to keep things tight even in defeat. I think the Stars will win outright, so I'm comfortable adding backing to keep things within two goals.

Odds: +100

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Zibanejad’s playmaking to shine vs. Panthers

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The puck drops for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday night. Let's look at a few of the best ways to attack the series opener.

Mika Zibanejad: Over 0.5 assists

Zibanejad's a very dangerous goal-scorer, particularly on the power play. But it's his playmaking that's causing opponents the most problems of late.

He's in the midst of an unbelievable assist streak having picked up at least one apple in 14 of his past 15 games dating back to the regular season.

With Chris Kreider scoring at will, Zibanejad, whose one-timer is understandably respected in power-play situations, has a lot of incentive to distribute the puck.

Furthermore, Zibanejad has tallied at least one assist in 60% of his home games this season, including his last meeting with these same Panthers.

Odds: -105 (playable to -130)

Matthew Tkachuk: Under 3.5 shots

Tkachuk has had a difficult time generating shots against the Rangers. He attempted six shots or fewer in the last eight head-to-head meetings.

His shot volume is also noticeably lower when playing on the road, as he averaged 3.8 shots on 6.9 attempts in Florida this season but just 3.4 shots on 5.7 attempts away from home.

The difference was even more drastic after the calendar flipped to 2024. Tkachuk averaged 7.1 attempts per game at home and just 5.2 on the road.

He sees tougher matchups away from home - Paul Maurice tends to use the Aleksander Barkov line against the opposing team's best units in Florida - and the Rangers should be able to keep Tkachuk's shot volume down in this game.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Jacob Trouba: Over 3.5 blocked shots

Trouba is a shot-blocking machine. He recorded at least four blocks in eight of his last 10 games and all five playoff games in New York thus far.

He's showing a remarkably consistent floor and ceiling, which will continue against the Panthers.

They are an excellent volume-shooting team and averaged just under 68 attempts per 60 minutes in the regular season, slotting them only behind the Hurricanes.

Trouba spends a ton of time chasing play in the defensive zone - no player remaining in the playoffs has been on the ice for more shot attempts against per minute - and an elite shot-generating team like the Panthers should lead to an abundance of blocking opportunities.

Odds: -110 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Zibanejad’s playmaking to shine vs. Panthers

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The puck drops for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday night. Let's look at a few of the best ways to attack the series opener.

Mika Zibanejad: Over 0.5 assists

Zibanejad's a very dangerous goal-scorer, particularly on the power play. But it's his playmaking that's causing opponents the most problems of late.

He's in the midst of an unbelievable assist streak having picked up at least one apple in 14 of his past 15 games dating back to the regular season.

With Chris Kreider scoring at will, Zibanejad, whose one-timer is understandably respected in power-play situations, has a lot of incentive to distribute the puck.

Furthermore, Zibanejad has tallied at least one assist in 60% of his home games this season, including his last meeting with these same Panthers.

Odds: -105 (playable to -130)

Matthew Tkachuk: Under 3.5 shots

Tkachuk has had a difficult time generating shots against the Rangers. He attempted six shots or fewer in the last eight head-to-head meetings.

His shot volume is also noticeably lower when playing on the road, as he averaged 3.8 shots on 6.9 attempts in Florida this season but just 3.4 shots on 5.7 attempts away from home.

The difference was even more drastic after the calendar flipped to 2024. Tkachuk averaged 7.1 attempts per game at home and just 5.2 on the road.

He sees tougher matchups away from home - Paul Maurice tends to use the Aleksander Barkov line against the opposing team's best units in Florida - and the Rangers should be able to keep Tkachuk's shot volume down in this game.

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Jacob Trouba: Over 3.5 blocked shots

Trouba is a shot-blocking machine. He recorded at least four blocks in eight of his last 10 games and all five playoff games in New York thus far.

He's showing a remarkably consistent floor and ceiling, which will continue against the Panthers.

They are an excellent volume-shooting team and averaged just under 68 attempts per 60 minutes in the regular season, slotting them only behind the Hurricanes.

Trouba spends a ton of time chasing play in the defensive zone - no player remaining in the playoffs has been on the ice for more shot attempts against per minute - and an elite shot-generating team like the Panthers should lead to an abundance of blocking opportunities.

Odds: -110 (playable to -150)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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McDavid’s shooting to be front and center vs. Canucks

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We're approaching the dog days of the NHL playoffs and the end of multi-game slates. Let's waste no time getting to a few of my favorite props.

Parlay: Guentzel over 2.5 shots and Rangers +2.5 goals

Jake Guentzel quickly registered two shots on goal in Game 5 before being held shotless for nearly 40 consecutive minutes to finish things off. While frustrating, it doesn't scare me away.

He's recorded three or more shots in 15 of the past 18 meetings against the Rangers. Guentzel's averaged well over four shots per game in that span, so it's not as if he's just squeaking by.

He's an elite playoff performer and has been as advertised for the Hurricanes. Nobody on the roster has scored more goals than Guentzel in these playoffs, and he's 13 scoring chances clear of his closest teammate (Andrei Svechnikov).

Igor Shesterkin is a wall almost every night. Carolina will need its sniper to help facilitate offense in this do-or-die game. The Hurricanes having home ice and the ability to control matchups will make life easier for Guentzel.

I like pairing this with the Rangers on an alternate puck line of +2.5 to drastically improve the odds.

New York allows fewer than 2.5 goals per game in the playoffs, and the Hurricanes are renowned for not scoring on as many of their chances as they probably should.

The Rangers have covered this line in all but one playoff game. The exception was Game 5 when they entered the third period up a goal and allowed four unanswered to finish things out.

I think the Rangers will try and play things pretty close to the vest in a high-stakes affair on the road. This game should be low-scoring, making it difficult for the Hurricanes to gain real separation.

Odds: +106

Connor McDavid: Over 3.5 shots

McDavid's recorded at least four shots in three straight games against the Canucks, averaging more than seven attempts per.

I expect the volume to continue in Game 5. McDavid has played at least 23 minutes in each game this series, giving him all the time he could hope for to generate shots on goal.

The Oilers also recently juggled the lines, putting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins back on the top unit with McDavid and Zach Hyman.

This version of Edmonton's top line recorded under 80 shot attempts per 60 minutes of five-on-five play during the regular season. League-wide, it finished fourth in that category.

The Oilers are seemingly always on the front foot. Game 4 was a perfect example. Edmonton's top line generated a whopping 21 shot attempts in just over 12 minutes of five-on-five play.

Nugent-Hopkins is extremely pass-happy, so a lot of the shots end up on the sticks of McDavid and Hyman.

Game 5 is a huge swing game in the series. Given the stakes and how dominant this Oilers trio has been all year, McDavid should play a ton and earn plenty of shooting opportunities along the way.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Evander Kane: Under 2.5 shots

The Canucks haunt Kane like no other team. Including regular-season play, Kane's finished under his shot total in eight consecutive games against the Canucks. He's rarely even come close.

Kane's recorded just four total shots over his past five games against the Canucks. Generating two shots, let alone three, has proven to be an immense challenge.

The Canucks are a very structured team that gives up very little in the way of shot volume. They allowed 26.75 shots per 60 at five-on-five play during the regular season and have actually reduced that number even further in the playoffs.

The Canucks make it extremely difficult to generate shots efficiently, and Kane doesn't get the ice time - or power-play reps - to compensate for that.

As a bonus, Kane's hit rate on the road is 11% lower than it is on home ice. There just isn't much reason to expect Kane to break out of this shooting slump.

Odds: -150 (playable to -165)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Barkov’s playmaking success to continue vs. Bruins

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Monday night wasn't kind to us on the ice. After previously hitting in all 13 games in which he attempted at least 12 shots, Nathan MacKinnon found the target only four times on a dozen tries. And Jake Guentzel couldn't get to three shots despite sitting at two a minute into the second period. Ouch.

We'll look to rebound with three props for the NHL's Tuesday night two-pack.

Aleksander Barkov: Over 0.5 assists

Barkov continues to be an assist machine. He's recorded eight through nine playoff games and five in this series against the Bruins.

The Finn's track record against Boston is strong. Barkov has posted 17 assists in his previous 20 games versus the club, including 10 in the last 10.

And his home splits against the Bruins are downright absurd. Barkov has 11 assists over his last nine home games and has picked up at least one in eight contests. For whatever reason, Barkov has no problem creating goals against one of the league's stingiest teams.

The Panthers have generated more expected goals at five-on-five with Barkov on the ice in this series than with any other forward. He's getting plenty of opportunities at full strength while serving as a primary distributor on the power play.

Nobody on Florida's top unit has more power-play points than Barkov in this series, and nobody on that No. 1 unit has attempted fewer shots.

Barkov is looking to pass, and he's doing a great job of finding teammates in dangerous areas. Expect that to continue Tuesday.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Matthew Tkachuk: Over 3.5 shots

Tkachuk's shot generation has been excellent in this series. He leads all players with 17 shots on target through four games, and his volume has increased throughout the series. Tkachuk has piled up 12 shots over the past two games while attempting eight-plus in each.

The 26-year-old has a strong history against the Bruins, particularly in Florida. Tkachuk recorded four shots or more in seven of the last nine at home versus Boston.

Opponent aside, he's also ramped his shooting up in the playoffs. Tkachuk has cleared this line in seven of nine games during this run.

The Panthers have steamrolled the Bruins with Tkachuk on the ice at five-on-five, winning the shot attempt battle 61-34. They've dominated during Tkachuk's minutes, and he should see plenty of ice time Tuesday with a chance to end the series.

Look for Tkachuk to live around the paint and pick up a handful of shots.

Odds: -130 (playable to -140)

Evander Kane: Under 2.5 shots

To say Kane's had a miserable time against the Canucks would be an understatement. The veteran winger has faced Vancouver seven times between the 2023-24 regular season and playoffs, recording two shots or fewer in each game. He's also combined for only four shots over their last four meetings.

The Canucks are an excellent defensive team. They give up few shooting opportunities and are willing to get into the lane to block the ones they concede. That's why Kane has failed to enjoy any form of success against them, even in games when his attempt volume is solid.

Kane's had no success against the Canucks, and his ice time is dwindling, having logged fewer than 15 minutes in two of the past three games.

If Kane isn't getting a full workload against an elite shot-suppression team, I see plenty of value in backing the under.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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What the odds say: Who’ll be Leafs’ next head coach?

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are expected to make several meaningful changes this offseason.

The first came quickly. Just days after being eliminated from the playoffs, the Maple Leafs moved on from Sheldon Keefe as head coach, firing him before a two-year contract extension even began.

Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving said the club would be thorough in its search for a new bench boss but acknowledged that plenty of vacancies are available. Toronto will have to move with some urgency.

According to oddsmakers at theScore Bet, Craig Berube is the favorite to be the Leafs' new bench boss, while Todd McLellan is hot on his tail.

Coach Odds
Craig Berube -125
Todd McLellan +150
Any other coach +300
Gerard Gallant +800
Dean Evason +900
Joel Quenneville +1500
Guy Boucher +1700
Bruce Boudreau +1800
Jay Woodcroft +1800
Darryl Sutter +3000
Dan Bylsma +6000
Claude Julien +7000

There's been a lot of speculation regarding Berube to the Leafs, and understandably so. He's a hard-nosed coach who has a Stanley Cup victory on his resume.

With the Maple Leafs perceived to be a "soft" team that always falls short when it matters most, it's not surprising the organization may feel Berube is the perfect elixir.

However, McLellan seems to be firmly on the radar. He hasn't enjoyed much postseason success in recent years, but his squads have generally performed well in the regular season.

McLellan also has a reputation as more of a defensive-minded coach who could perhaps be a change of pace and provide a fresh voice to try to get over the hump.

Ultimately, I think Berube will be Toronto's guy when all is said and done. The Maple Leafs have the deep pockets to give him the kind of money he'll command. Berube is highly sought after and has a Cup ring, which undoubtedly provides ammunition in contract negotiations.

There has been so much talk about the Leafs doing the little things right, getting to the hard areas when the games are tough, and making things happen without relying just on skill.

Right or wrong, Berube seems to be the perfect fit for what the team wants.

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MacKinnon to shoot the lights out on home ice

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We have two high-stakes playoff games on the docket Monday night. The Rangers can close out their series with a win, and the Stars could put the Avalanche on the brink of elimination if they can steal another victory in Colorado.

Let's take a look at the best ways to attack the games.

Guentzel over 2.5 shots + Stankoven over 1.5 shots

I normally advise playing everything straight, but here's a parlay worth an exception.

We'll start with Jake Guentzel. Through four games, he's piled up 18 shots on 33 attempts. That's an average of 4.5 shots and more than eight attempts per contest.

Shooting success against the Rangers isn't new for Guentzel. He's had their number for years, recording at least three shots in 15 of their past 17 meetings (most of which came when he played for the Penguins). He routinely soars past his total, averaging 4.7 shots in that frame.

With the Hurricanes playing for their season - and struggling to beat Igor Shesterkin with any sort of consistency - Guentzel will surely get a healthy chunk of ice time Monday night. Expect him to take advantage, as he so often does versus New York.

Onto the second leg. Logan Stankoven has proven to be a reliable shot-generator. He's recorded multiple shots in 23 of 34 games, good for a 68% hit rate.

The talented youngster has taken things up a notch of late, producing two-plus shots in nine of his past 11 outings. That includes three-plus shots in each of the four meetings with the Avalanche while averaging five attempts per game.

Stankoven cleared his 1.5 line in 13 of 14 contests when attempting five shots or more. He's extremely reliable when generating this kind of volume.

Odds: +142

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon's enjoyed a ton of shooting success against the Stars, particularly in Colorado: He's recorded five shots or more in five of the past six home games against Dallas. His lone failure came in Game 1 of the series, but it wasn't for a lack of opportunity - the superstar attempted nine shots.

For perspective, MacKinnon averaged 6.7 shots and cleared five in 16 of the past 20 home games in which he attempted nine shots or more.

I think he'll repeat that success in Game 4. The Avalanche are desperate for a win to keep this series tight - and, since they know they can't match the Stars' depth, they rely heavily on their big guns to carry the load. MacKinnon's logged at least 23 in each game this series.

Win or lose, I expect MacKinnon to flirt with 25 minutes of ice while firing attempting plenty of shots to go over his shot total.

Odds: -110 (playable to -130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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Will the Maple Leafs break up the Core 4?

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The Maple Leafs recently came up short in another Game 7 against the Bruins, marking the 18th time in 19 years they've failed to make the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Another great regular season quickly ending with playoff disappointment has many calling for major change. And it seems like they'll get it.

The question is: How drastic will the changes be?

The first shoe dropped Thursday when Toronto fired head coach Sheldon Keefe despite a two-year contract extension set to begin in 2024-25. If that's any indication of what's to come, we could be in for a busy summer.

For the first time, Maple Leafs president Brendan Shanahan didn't shoot down the idea of moving one of the team's core players. That was one of the many notable takeaways from Friday's press conference featuring Shanahan, GM Brad Treliving, and MLSE CEO Keith Pelley.

There's a difference between "considering everything," as Shanahan put it, and actually following through, but this time around feels different.

Auston Matthews is the best scorer in the league and signed through 2027-28. Meanwhile, William Nylander is coming off a career-best campaign, and his massive eight-year extension kicks in next season. That tells us those two are safe.

John Tavares and Mitch Marner don't appear to have the same kind of security. Although they both have no-movement clauses (NMC), they're also entering the final year of their respective deals, with extensions looking extremely unlikely.

Perhaps the Maple Leafs can convince one of them to waive his NMC in order for the team and player to cleanly move on.

What do you think: Is time up on the Core Four? theScore Bet is offering +550 odds on any of Marner, Matthews, Nylander, or Tavares being traded by Oct. 1, 2024.

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Barkov, Verhaeghe to stay hot in Game 3 vs. Bruins

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Another day, another pair of playoff games.

Let's take a look at a few plays that stand out from the rest of the board.

Aleksander Barkov: Over 0.5 assists

Barkov's playmaking has hit another level of late. He has 10 assists over his last 10 games, including three through two games against the Bruins.

Boston's long been an excellent defensive team with elite-level goaltending, but that hasn't stopped Barkov from torching it. He has at least one assist in seven of the last eight versus the Bruins, and 11 of 14 when zooming out further. He's on an incredible run.

I expect the good times to continue in Game 3. The Panthers have caved the Bruins in with Barkov on the ice at five-on-five in this series. They've won the shot-attempt battle 36-20 and controlled better than 72% of the expected goals.

Barkov is playing with a pair of excellent finishers in Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk at full strength. He also skates on the top power play, where he's clearly happy to defer to other shooters. Nobody on the top unit has attempted fewer power-play shots than Barkov in this series.

Odds: +110 (playable to -125)

Carter Verhaeghe: Over 3.5 shots

Verhaeghe's skating on the top line with Tkachuk and Barkov. While both of his linemates have already scored in the series, and Verhaeghe hasn't, it's Verhaeghe who's piling up the shots against Boston.

He's generated 12 shot attempts and nine scoring chances at five-on-five alone. Tkachuk (four attempts, three chances) and Barkov (four attempts, two chances) have deferred to Verhaeghe as the go-to shooter on the line.

He's maintained that role on the top power play as well. Verhaeghe has recorded more attempts and chances than anybody on the Panthers while up a man.

Put it all together, and Verhaeghe's piled up 22 attempts and 15 chances through two games, well clear of any player on either side.

With top-tier linemates in all situations and extremely strong volume, Verhaeghe is worth backing again in Game 3.

Odds: +107 (playable to -120)

Evan Bouchard: Over 0.5 assists

Bouchard tallied 64 assists during the regular season and has ramped things up even further in the playoffs. He has nine assists through six games, including one in Game 1 against the Canucks.

Bouchard sets up a ton of shots in the offensive zone while quarterbacking the offense. He's also attempted at least five shots in every playoff game thus far, helping create rebounds and possible deflections.

He touches the puck a ton on the most dangerous power play in the league and often plays behind either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl at even strength. He couldn't possibly get better usage for creating offense.

The Canucks' goaltending is a big question mark right now, and I'm expecting the Oilers to strongly test it as they look to grind out a split and steal home-ice advantage.

I expect they'll generate more shots/chances and score a handful of goals en route to a win. Look for Bouchard to pick up at least one assist, as he's done in 18 of his past 30 games (60%).

Odds: -130 (playable to -145)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X at @ToddCordell.

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