For years, the Jets vexed handicappers. They'd fit the profile of a team getting regularly outplayed at even strength but survived by converting an unusual amount of the chances they got and relying on their goaltender to outperform the opponent in the other crease.

This season - their first under Rick Bowness - they didn't have the win total they managed in recent years but played much better overall. In fact, the wild-card Jets rate awfully similar to their first-round opponent - the Golden Knights.

Series odds

From a win-loss perspective, the Golden Knights used a hot start and a big finish to take the Pacific Division, while the Jets held off the Flames and Predators for the final wild card. Despite a 1-8 conference seeding matchup, top-seeded Vegas is expected to win this series less than 60% of the time.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

The Golden Knights' second strong stretch of the season wasn't nearly as impressive from a play-driving perspective, as both Vegas and Winnipeg were merely slightly above average after the All-Star break.

Advanced metrics at even-strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

You won't find a closer matchup at even strength from a chance-creation standpoint. The Golden Knights were better than the Jets at converting chances and keeping them out of the net despite Winnipeg having the former Vezina-winner still at the top of his game.

Goaltending matchup

No, the above isn't the Jets' goaltending depth chart from 2018-21. Vegas played five different goaltenders this season, riding a hot Logan Thompson early but eventually letting Laurent Brossoit, the former backup of Connor Hellebuyck, grab the reins late after Thompson got hurt. While Brossoit's goals saved above expected (GSAx) reads better than Hellebuyck's, a small sample size of just 10 starts doesn't confirm anything other than Brossoit's right to getting the first crack in the crease against his former team.

Special teams

Vegas mitigates its poor penalty kill by rarely having to kill a penalty. With an NHL-low 2.38 times shorthanded per game, is it doing something differently than the other 31 teams? Or is regression around the corner in the short sample of a playoff series?

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

The Jets opened as high as +165 on the series but were immediately bet through our "price to bet" to as low as +140. This is a sign that the market understood that this series should be lined closer than at first look.

Best bet

I'd need the series price to return to +150 to fire on the Jets, but since the market is of the same opinion that we're in for a long series, we'll look for ways to bet that idea without having to give up much in the way of value or pay a lot of juice.

I have the fair price for Jets +1.5 games at 60%, which suggests appropriate odds of -150. That bet can be found for as low as -140. A +1.5 series bet wins no matter what happens in a potential Game 7, and I have the probability of a winner-take-all game happening at 31%. So while +223 would be fair price, anything at +200 or better would be good enough for me. That's because a potential Game 6 in Winnipeg would likely come with close to a coin-flip moneyline split, and we'd be content with needing either team to win to force a Game 7 since we'd be getting +200 on the team down 3-2.

As for the opener, we'll hope to get +133 on the Jets' moneyline before Tuesday night, and if not, we'll just let our series bets carry the weight of our interests in Game 1.

Game 1: Jets moneyline (+133 or better)
Series: Jets +1.5 (-145 or better)
Series: Over 6.5 total games (+215)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Some look at bets in a futures market in a galactic way. As in, if I think the Oilers win one of the next five Stanley Cups, then betting them at +800 is a valuable proposition. While I think that's somewhat of an arbitrary way to think about futures, when it comes to Connor McDavid and the career he's projected to have, it's actually not all that frivolous. In fact, McDavid's genius is actually the reason there shouldn't be one red cent bet on the Oilers to win the Stanley Cup from now until the Cup is handed out in June. That's because of a secondary futures market that, unlike the Stanley Cup, hasn't been available to bet on day in, day out all season long.

Conn Smythe odds

Players not listed at +5000 odds or longer

The Oilers are at or around +700 to win the Stanley Cup, which carries an implied win probability of 12.5%. But this isn't about whether or not Edmonton will win the Stanley Cup. It's about why sportsbooks should be wondering if their Oilers button is broken for the next few days.

Translating odds into probability is chapter one of becoming an intelligent bettor, and as we know from middle school math class, probability is reflected in a pie chart, with the pie adding up to 100%.

When betting a Conn Smythe trophy winner, you should start at the end and work backward. This year marks the 20th anniversary of the last time a losing Stanley Cup finalist won the Conn Smythe (more on this in a moment), so you should probably pick players from the team(s) who you think can win the Stanley Cup. More intelligently, you should be looking at the players on that team who have a better chance than the odds suggest.

The Bruins are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup at +350 - an implied probability of 22.2%. They have four players within the top nine choices to win playoff MVP. Here's what it looks like if we translate their odds into probability form:

That adds up to 25.3% worth of probability before we even add in the chances of Charlie McAvoy or another Bruin having a big postseason. In this case, it's better to back Boston than try to guess who the Bruins' standout will be.

Beyond the obvious, the premise for McDavid's case as a valuable bet to win the Conn Smythe starts with the idea that if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, McDavid's roughly 100% to win the playoff MVP award, and therefore those odds should be identical.

With apologies to Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers can't win the championship without a healthy McDavid, and a healthy McDavid is going to get the primary credit for a championship. In fact, Draisaitl's existence forces oddsmakers to cut a 2.4% slice of the probability pie in his direction. Any slice going to anyone on the Oilers other than McDavid provides more value on McDavid.

Since McDavid's Conn Smythe odds are +1000, and that's longer than the Oilers' +700 to win the Stanley Cup, he's the better bet.

That's before we even get to the second, more provocative element behind a McDavid bet. I believe that McDavid is the only player in the NHL capable of joining Jean-Sebastien Giguere in 2003 and Ron Hextall in 1987 as players in my lifetime to win the Conn Smythe in a losing cause.

To be the MVP in a losing cause, you need to be that much better over the two-month playoff run than everyone else, regardless of position. McDavid's career year, where he scored 36% more points than any other non-Oiler, comes after last year's playoffs when he scored 33 points in 16 games. If the Oilers can get to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final and play around 24 postseason games in total, not only will he end up with a significant lead over anyone else in this playoffs, but he could break Wayne Gretzky's record of 47 points in a single postseason.

Finally, the East is loaded with contenders, and whoever gets out of that conference to then hypothetically beat the Oilers will have needed multiple contributors, with no clear standout in victory. Only David Pastrnak has stood out beyond his teammates, but probable Vezina-winner Linus Ullmark could accrue enough credit to take away from the Bruins' top scorer.

Fundamentally, even if you think there's only a 1% chance of that happening, that means McDavid's theoretically 101% to win the award relative to the Oilers' odds to win the Stanley Cup. This means that the probability for him to win the Conn Smythe could actually be interpreted to be shorter than his team's odds to win the Cup, making McDavid at +1000 somewhat of a bargain on the best player in the NHL to put at least one more new trophy on his mantle.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

It's another first-round rematch for a Canadian franchise as the Oilers find themselves facing the Kings - a team that took Connor McDavid and company to seven games last year. Since then, both teams revamped a questionable goaltending situation, improved their advanced metrics, and played better down the stretch of the regular season than they did at the start. For all that optimism, their reward is facing each other, and one way or another, a Western Conference contender will be sent home far too early.

Series odds

The game and series odds are comparable to last season's meeting, and the Kings can be found for as high as +210 in far away places. The Game 1 total opened the highest of any of the eight first-round series at 6.5, suggesting that the market is less certain either team has enough answers in net. Though the teams combined to go over 6.5 goals in only three of the seven games last year.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

For the season, the Kings played to a level 9% above league average but finished strong with even-strength play-rate that would make them comparable to the best teams in the NHL had they done so all season long. Part of that boost in metrics comes from keeping the puck out of the net, as their opponents scored on just 8.5% of their high-danger chances. The Oilers tantalized bettors with 18-3 moneyline record after March 1, but a look deeper at their play shows that might have been more than a little lucky.

Advanced metrics at even-strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

Since March 1st, the Oilers created 54.5% of the even-strength expected goals in their games and had 57.7% of the high-danger chances during 5-on-5 - two very good rates. In that same time frame, Los Angeles had shares of 56.5% and 59.4% in their games, but a three-game losing streak - where the Kings actually held the Oilers, Golden Knights, and Avalanche to single-digit even-strength high-danger chances - was the difference between their current resume and that of Edmonton.

Goaltending matchup

The Kings made the quietest big move at the NHL's trade deadline acquiring Joonas Korpisalo from Columbus, allowing them to literally go back-and-forth between him and Pheonix Copley throughout the stretch run. The Kings may have provided a hint that it will be Joonas carrying the wind for them to start, as he got the tune-up in the season finale on Thursday - the first back-to-back start for either Kings netminder. Since joining the Kings, he's stopped over a half-goal per game more than an average goaltender would.

Thankfully for Edmonton, Stuart Skinner stepped up when Jack Campbell faltered miserably. However, Skinner's numbers look a lot like Mike Smith's regular season stats from last year, so the hope in Edmonton is that his postseason numbers don't nosedive like Smith's in recent playoffs.

Special teams

Guess what? The Oilers' power play is awesome. The kind of awesome that will happen when you have a player on your team whose name rhymes with Lonner McShmavid. However, the Kings' power play is sneaky good, even if merely mortal at fourth in the league - just behind the Maple Leafs and Lightning. Neither team is particularly stingy on the penalty kill.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

Not surprisingly, despite largely even metrics, the brand power of McDavid and an 18-3 close to the season that's being attributed in part to the Oilers' added depth - particularly on defense with Mattias Ekholm - has made the Oilers prohibitive to bet. In turn, the value is squarely on the side of a relatively anonymous Kings team.

Best bets

This was the same situation last year, and the Kings pushed the Oilers to a deciding game in Edmonton. With Kings +1.5 widely available at even-money and my projected price for that at -169, even if you aren't willing to completely fade McDavid after an epic regular season, betting on a close series is probably a good idea. The over 5.5 games option is fairly priced at -165 as well.

A big x-factor for this series - outside of the inexperience in net on both sides - is that the Kings could get a boost from the return of wingers Kevin Fiala and Gabriel Vilardi. Adding that depth will give Los Angeles a better chance to win the ice time that McDavid is on the bench for - a key in any matchup with the Oilers.

That may not happen in Game 1, but a moneyline at better than +150 is hard to pass up after seeing the Kings take a pair of playoff games in Edmonton last season, including the series opener.

Game 1: Kings moneyline (+160 or better)
Series: Kings +1.5 games (+100)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

For the majority of the campaign, the Lightning and Maple Leafs knew a rematch of last season's seven-game first-round series was coming. If preparation and familiarity lead to buttoned-up defenses, expect the under to be in play in each game of this first-round matchup.

This is despite a pair of rosters loaded with offensive talent - including Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, Mitch Marner, Steven Stamkos, John Tavares, Brayden Point, William Nylander, and Mikhail Sergachev.

As fans of both teams can attest, last year's series was decided in a do-or-die game by a pair of goals from fourth-line support player Nicholas Paul. One year later, with Toronto again the site for a prospective Game 7, the Maple Leafs are favored by slightly more than last season.

Series odds

The Leafs were just -120 to win this series last year - thanks to home-ice advantage - after a season in which the Lightning's metrics suggested they were the better team. Those same numbers show the Leafs' improvement and the Lightning's decline this season.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

For the entire season, the Lightning and Leafs both rated just below the top teams at 17% and 19% above an average NHL team, respectively. But since the All-Star break, both have slipped relative to their start. That could easily be attributed to having little or nothing to play for as the season progressed. The Bruins' incredible start meant there was little chance of catching them for the division, and there was no threat the Lightning or Leafs would be caught from behind to prevent this 2-3 divisional matchup.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

Despite all the aforementioned scoring talent, both teams finished the season below average in converting their high-danger chances, and as a whole, they got excellent goaltending when it came to stopping opponents' high-danger chances.

Goaltending matchup

While not quite Vezina-level numbers, both Andrei Vasilevskiy and Ilya Samsonov stopped roughly a half goal more per game than an average goaltender would have. Since the All-Star break, though, Samsonov's play has improved, stopping .587 goals above expectation per 60 minutes, while Vasilevskiy's play dipped to less than .4 goals saved above expected.

Special teams

The Maple Leafs have the slightest advantage in special teams over the course of the regular season, but with the assumption of fewer power plays and a heightened level of game-planning for each coaching staff, I'd expect both penalty kills to win out, meaning power plays won't be the deciding factor.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

The small advantages in goaltending, special teams, and late-season even-strength play suggest the Leafs should be the slight favorite if this series were played out on a neutral site. Home-ice advantage for Game 7 pushes that price further, but -150 (60% implied win probability) for the series is too far.

Best bets

The numbers suggest that we're getting close to where the Lightning become a valuable bet, and Toronto's playoff history would help sway most in that direction. But when adding everything outside of the numbers, I'll invoke my right to pass on a pure side.

After three straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final in an unusually condensed period of time, the Lightning may not have another gear - despite Jon Cooper pleading for his team to bring more intensity to the regular season. As a result, I've gone looking for the best value bet to back Toronto.

I have a fair price on Leafs -1.5 games at +169, but oddsmakers are dealing +140. Hopefully, that improves by puck drop with the market potentially expecting another close series, but that's a price I'd take if it's the best we can get. Also, under 5.5 total games is available at +170, and my fair price for that is +166 so there's some value in betting this series to end earlier than expected - one way or another.

Game 1: Under 6 goals (-120)
Series: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140 or better)
Series: Under 5.5 games (+170)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Success is all relative.

With a two-point lead in the Central Division with three games to go as of Monday morning, the Avalanche won't exceed expectations with a division title. After all, they were favored to win it before the season. Meanwhile, the Kraken's 2022-23 campaign can be considered an overall win by just making the playoffs, since expectations were for a sub-.500 season.

Then there's the Maple Leafs, whose bar for success is to either win a playoff series or win the Stanley Cup - or anywhere in between, depending on who you ask.

While many teams have yet to determine whether their season is a success, all 32 were assigned a season point total goal for bettors to buy (by betting the over) or sell (by betting the under).

With either two or three games left to play, let's look back at which teams - in the eyes of bettors - had a successful season and which have work to do to go over their prescribed point total.

Regular-season point total winners

It's strange to discuss the Coyotes in the same breath as the Bruins, but here we are. Arizona's expectations were so low that it could finish 28th overall and still have cashed bettors' over tickets with more than a week left in the season.

It won't come as a surprise that the Bruins led the way in gross margin, but they've also already racked up 37% more points than expected. The Kraken were second in that department, with already 20% more points than their expectation - which was well below what's required of a playoff team.

If getting one's team to play above expectation is the reflection of a coach, Jim Montgomery should win the Jack Adams Award, with Seattle's Dave Hakstol right behind him in voters' eyes. To handicap the betting markets for that award for future seasons, look at which team will exceed their point total by the highest percentage to determine which bet is worth making.

If the Jets seal a playoff spot in the season's final week, that would mean at least 11 of 16 playoff teams went over their point totals.

Regular-season point total success TBD

Bettors for five teams will still be made to sweat during the race to the finish line.

Of course Toronto's regular-season success barometer is still in question days before their annual high-stakes temperature check. No team teeters on a balance beam of joy and sorrow more than the Leafs and their backers. While the final three games are largely meaningless in the locker room, many bettors care more about what happens on a three-game road trip to close the season than the upcoming rematch with the Lightning.

In a rare instance of betting imitating life, the Islanders are more than motivated to accrue as many points as possible with two games to go, as they battle the Penguins and Panthers for the two wild cards in the Eastern Conference.

Regular-season point total losers

Speaking of Pittsburgh and Florida, bettors didn't expect them to be in such desperate states before the season. Of course, a playoff spot clinched and a potential deep run won't make their season-long backers feel any better about bets that were lost long ago. The same goes for the Avalanche and Lightning, whose Stanley Cup Final matchup last summer helped set the bar slightly too high this season.

Never a threat to hit their prescribed number, the Ducks and Blackhawks each have two points in their last 10 games and are in a battle for the most draft lottery balls with the Sharks and Blue Jackets. Bettors who didn't believe in a turnaround after those four teams missed the playoffs by a mile last year will be satisfied.

If the Flyers can't register three points in their final two games, it will mean that teams lined at less than 80 points went 6-2 to the under - making the "bet the bad teams to be bad" preseason strategy profitable.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The NHL regular season's final weeks are not to be trusted.

For bad teams, it's one thing to think about a club relative to its draft position in February or March. Still, it's another thing when losing the final few games guarantees as many draft lottery balls as possible. Management often decrees that certain goaltenders start and lesser players get more ice time in the name of "giving opportunities to the young guys." Why not just bet against the bad teams, then? Well, those young players aren't trying to look bad and are giving everything they have to get noticed. Plus, the market will lean to the favorite even more, so the only play is to back the inferior squad, which isn't a particularly fun way to finish your campaign either.

For mediocre teams, it's one thing to think about a club relative to its playoff position and the concept of a must-win game. However, it's another thing to pay the tax oddsmakers charge on backing a club sitting on the playoff bubble just because it has more theoretical motivation. The reality is pressure can only cause problems. Once players are on the ice, they aren't thinking about the standings when they make the snap decision about where to shoot, pinch, or dive to block a shot.

For good teams, it's one thing to assume that a club doesn't necessarily have the motivation to win to secure a playoff seed. But it's another thing to fade a squad like the Bruins even after they sit their stars for rest purposes. A good team is more than just a few players; It's a collective - culture, coaching, and player development. On the flip side, you're not likely to get a deal on Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, or any other club with its playoffs seeding set.

Thoroughly confused? That's what happens in the final weeks of the NHL, NFL, NBA, and MLB seasons. It comes with the territory. These will be the final moneyline projections of the regular season since the best bet for the first full week of April is to take time to regroup and not give back the profits made value-betting during this long NHL season.

The recipe

We started the campaign using the regular-season point total market as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best preseason measurement. Throughout the season, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events can skew. Our priors have almost entirely been flushed out this late in the campaign, and this season's metrics remain.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Barring an incredible hot streak and a collapse from the teams in front of them, the Ottawa Senators have likely excused themselves from Stanley Cup Playoffs contention. A win against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night could resuscitate their chances, but in the three-point game era, it's very difficult to make up ground in the final weeks of the season.

Ottawa lost six of its last seven games, and its slide has come in conjunction with an injury to Cam Talbot, who missed 10 games when the season began (Ottawa went 4-6).

When the Senators (now 20-1 to make the playoffs) miss the postseason, will it simply be because their veteran 35-year-old stopgap starter wasn't available at the beginning and virtual end of their season?

Here's a look at the four goaltenders the Senators used more than once this season and how they've fared relative to the average goaltender, using goals saved above expectation.

Per 60 minutes, Anton Forsberg has held up in deputizing for Talbot, while Mads Sogaard has been the weak link of the trio. In what is likely a good example of small-sample bias, Kevin Mandolese excelled in the three appearances he had this season.

While all this is cool for Senators fans, as bettors it's theoretically need-to-know information, especially with Forsberg out for the season and Sogaard the nominal starter until Talbot comes back. Here's the problem:

Despite the difference in the metric evaluation of each goaltender, the Senators have been virtually .500 when any of them have started. However, it's important to know what might happen with Sogaard now playing nightly. He went 4-1 in spot starts against five teams that aren't currently in the playoffs, but since getting the No. 1 workload, he's 1-5 - with four games coming against playoff teams.

On the surface, there isn't likely to be a valuable bet on Senators-Penguins on Monday night, as listed below. But if there's a hidden element that would hurt the Sens' rating based on inexperience in net, the Penguins might be the side to back.

The recipe

We started the season using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. The moneyline could also move into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

For the Canucks and their fans, it's time to give up.

It's time to abandon the only thing that gave a lost season some hope - the chance to draft Connor Bedard or Adam Fantilli - or whomever else we all talk ourselves into believing is the franchise-changer, for that matter.

Fourteen points ahead of the Blue Jackets and 11 points clear of the Blackhawks and Sharks, the Canucks getting a top-2 pick would require the type of lottery luck that they historically don't have.

The problem all along has been that the Canucks are too good to be bad. Sure, expected goal and high-danger chance shares of around 47% this season are certainly not good, but the team is just not bad enough to lay down against the likes of the Blue Jackets, Blackhawks, Coyotes, Ducks, and Canadiens.

Early in the season, the Canucks were good enough to get multi-goal leads, but they would repeatedly and historically blow them due to poor defensive play and goaltending.

They had a captain good enough to be sought after in Bo Horvat, and they ultimately got a three-pronged package from the Islanders.

Thatcher Demko was considered good before this season, then wasn't, and now has a very good +4.79 goals saved above expectation in just five games following his return. For all the embarrassment brought by their midseason coaching change, the Canucks are now playing, dare I say, well defensively.

How do we find a silver lining as the Canucks return to the worst theoretical place in sports - mediocrity? We bet on them to disappoint their fans by winning.

The market seemed unaware of the Canucks' 4-1 record in their last five games when they made Vancouver a home underdog to the Senators on Saturday. The Canucks cashed plus-money tickets with ease in a 5-2 win - their fourth straight victory.

That's the type of game where you'll find value on the Canucks the rest of the way - priced cheaply against teams with higher playoff hopes. With all 17 of their remaining games against Western Conference teams who are largely better-than-average at best, the Canucks look to be a profitable bet on a nightly basis. So even when they win more than they lose and finish on the brink of a top-10 draft pick, at least that silver lining will come in the form of dollars in your wallet.

"Ted Lasso" taught us that it's the hope that kills you, but winning bets will make you feel alive.

The recipe

We started the season using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Oilers won in Boston on Thursday - something few teams have done this season. The Bruins are now 26-6 against the moneyline at TD Garden. Despite the gaudy home record, it wasn't a massive upset for Edmonton, with the Oilers widely available around +150 and eventually closing around +130 on the moneyline.

Going into the game with an 83.8% home win percentage would suggest that Boston would be priced at -520 against an average team. That's obviously absurd, which is why it's so impressive the Bruins have won that many home games this season. That they would break even at that kind of price is wild. If you had known the club would garner these kinds of results in Boston, you would've had a great year blindly betting on it each time.

However, what's happened in the past record-wise can't be directly applied to the next game. Why? Because what happens on the ice in-between goals matters. Amazingly, the Bruins aren't necessarily the best home team in the NHL this season. There are two clubs with both a better even-strength expected goal share and a high-danger chance share.

While no one is stingier on home ice, 13 teams have created more high-danger chances at five-on-five at home this season than the Bruins.

How could we have known Boston would be super profitable in its arena this campaign? Obviously, we couldn't.

From a betting standpoint, home-ice advantage isn't how much better you are than the rest of the league at home. It's really about how much better you are compared to yourself on the road.

The Bruins were 26-15 at home last season and 25-16 on the road. They're 23-8 on the road this campaign, which isn't far off from their home results. Their record in Boston isn't a product of playing in Beantown. It's a product of being good in general.

Now that we've given the Bruins the appropriate credit, the Oilers were still just +130 at close Thursday night. If you've been an ardent follower of the guide here, you may have noticed the numbers haven't been begging us to fade Boston much this season. That means we have an adequate rating of them relative to the market.

Thankfully, we haven't faded the Bruins, or we'd be getting battered by them in their run for the Presidents' Trophy.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

If we're being honest, it's always kind of a guessing game: NHL oddsmakers and bettors alike, trying to figure out how to price a hockey team with this player out or that backup goaltender in.

We use the information that oddsmakers give us in the form of previous odds, and with some high school math prowess, we turn them into team ratings. Then, 60-some-odd games get played, and around the time the calendar turns to March, it gets entirely jumbled, shifted, and twisted all around. That's the effect of the trade deadline.

Already a below-average team (-13%), the Red Wings traded Filip Hronek, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Jakub Vrana at the deadline. Each player is interesting enough to be traded for, but none move the needle on a nightly basis when it comes to pricing a team. While Vrana hasn't contributed this season, do the collective deals mean the Red Wings need a further downgrade post-deadline?

What about the Predators? A purely average team (+1%) - which had already seen Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen go out with injuries - traded away its fourth- and fifth-highest scorers in Mikael Granlund and Nino Niederreiter, along with its second-best defenseman, Mattias Ekholm, all after Tanner Jeannot was deemed valuable enough to garner a decent package from the Lightning. How much below average are the Predators now that they're left with Roman Josi, Matt Duchene, and little else?

On the positive side of things, the Kings - a team I have rated 5% above average - somehow found themselves in a playoff spot despite getting goaltending of the same low quality as teams that have long given up on the postseason. Presumably desperate to stop playing 6-5 games, they added Joonas Korpisalo. Under the radar with the Blue Jackets, Korpisalo has actually been a top-10 goaltender, with a plus-10.18 Goals Saved Above Expected over fewer than 30 games played.

When Korpisalo starts for the Kings, how much of a boost should they get with the assumption of even average goaltending for that game? What if we assume above-average goaltending, as Korpisalo provided when he stopped 24 of 26 shots as part of a 4-2 win over the Blues on Saturday? What if his presence translates to even better play from Pheonix Copley if/when he starts on a more limited basis? The Kings can't be judged through a lens of 41 games started by Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen, but with a 20-6 record in games not started by those two, Los Angeles might be on the come up, particularly dangerous in a wide-open Western Conference playoffs.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.