Of all the first-round successes we had, nothing worked better than hopping on a handful of teams after they were downed in Game 1. We went 4-1 for approximately plus-4 units, with just the long shot try on the Islanders falling short, thanks to a pair of overtime losses.

Overall, the team that lost the first game of the series went 6-2, with just the Kraken (who later trailed 2-1) and Hurricanes eventually closing their opponents out after leading 1-0.

So is it as simple as just backing the team down 0-1 to go on to win the series? No, not usually. That's why we picked our spots in Round 1. However, with all four pre-series favorites losing in Game 1 of Round 2, taking the trailing team is that much more appealing.

Instead of the article ending there, we'll actually rank each series by just how interested we are in a position for a comeback. In honor of both Joe Pavelski and Leon Draisaitl scoring four times - albeit in losing causes - we'll rank them by "goals."

*4 goals*

Oilers to win series (+120)

At least the Oilers lost the first game on the road. The advantage to not having home-ice advantage is that it's no catastrophe to go down 0-1 in the other team's barn - or should I say, "palatial concert venue?"

Edmonton was given a 60% implied win probability for this series before it started based on a -150 series price. Converting +120 into probability gives you 45.5%. That near 15% change is too high of a gap for my liking, as I've already jumped on Edmonton at the best price I can find for Game 2. In fact, that moneyline seems destined to close higher than the Oilers' odds to win Game 1.

Once Edmonton takes Game 2, its series odds won't just revert back to -150, they'll likely go higher after the Oilers have wrestled away home-ice advantage. As for Game 1, while the Golden Knights get credit for having the marginally better expected-goal share at even strength, Vegas converted two of just seven high-danger chances in that game state on top of two of four power-play chances. Those are two outlier events that'll be hard to repeat, especially if both are required to win by just one goal.

*3 goals*

Stars to win series (-115)

We sniffed out a potential over-pricing on the Stars before Game 1, advocating to take the Kraken +1.5 for the series in a way of finding a middle ground between having a position on Dallas to take the Western Conference and taking advantage of some obvious value.

However, we're still all Stars around here. Jake Oettinger has earned a pass for whatever that was in the first period of Game 1. The Kraken had two high-danger chances in the opening stanza but scored four even-strength goals. Yikes. Oettinger cleaned it up the rest of the way, with the Seattle game-winner coming in an overtime frame where Dallas was the better side. Throw in Pavelski - not only back and healthy but scoring four times - and that actually alleviates one of the worries about the long-term viability of Dallas.

So why not a "four-goal certified play?" Price matters around these parts, and oddsmakers are sticking to their pre-series (over)valuations by making Dallas 53.5% to win the series, just a 12% change from -190 before the series.

*2 goals*

Devils to win series (+140)

The first period in Raleigh wasn't pretty for the Devils; there's no denying that. It fed into the narrative that a team who played the game of its life on Monday night had too quick of a turnaround before a road series opener, with the ideally-rested Hurricanes trying to smother their speed.

The least predictable type of goal for handicapping is the "soft" goal, and Brett Pesce's seeing-eye wrister to open the scoring was no high-danger chance. Throw in three goals on nine HDCs - a 33% clip far exceeding Carolina's usual 9% conversion rate of the last two months - and you have another dual-outlier night.

The Devils will be better - as they were in periods two and three - and a 13% change in win probability is enough to keep us interested in a team we liked before the series.

*1 goal*

Maple Leafs to win series (+100)

We were on the Panthers in Game 1 and for the series, so there's no flip-flopping now. The thought process was that this was far more of a coin-flip series than the pre-series odds suggested. The Maple Leafs may have felt like the better team in the opener, but 50% splits in expected-goal share and high-danger chances at even strength confirm that they aren't better enough to be 63.6% probable to win the series and even higher than that to win Game 1.

As a result, a 13.6% drop to their win probability puts them at even money to win the series, a price that might be enticing to some based on how Round 1 shook out and the Leafs being a significant favorite to salvage a split. However, it's only worth a tertiary glance for those with Panthers positions.

Matt Russell is the Lead Betting Analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Everyone's a contender in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and anyone can exit early. The Bruins' and Avalanche's unceremonious departures should have served more as reminders than as truly shocking news. It's why trying to corner the market on a handful of Conn Smythe Trophy candidates from "good teams" is often a waste of time.

Sure enough, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, Linus Ullmark, Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point, and Andrei Vasilevskiy are among the big names no longer on the Conn Smythe oddsboard.

Conn Smythe odds

Players not listed at +5000 odds or longer

Connor McDavid takes the reins as the clear-cut playoff MVP favorite, but we've already got that ticket in hand. If you don't, the same logic we used two weeks ago still applies; McDavid's Conn Smythe odds should be closer to the Oilers' Stanley Cup odds than they are.

We were a little nervous that Leon Draisaitl would steal his thunder, as the German star's hot start suggested he might outpace McDavid in total postseason points. But while Draisaitl might be the Oilers' first-round MVP, he's still just one point ahead of his teammate. A potential Cup run should see McDavid take the lead, especially now that he's away from the likes of Phillip Danault, Anze Kopitar, and Drew Doughty.

Best of the rest

Don't fixate on what's already happened. While the first round is important, the next three will overshadow it during award voting six weeks from now. There are exceptions, of course, such as individual efforts that seem to validate hypotheses like "Matthew Tkachuk was built in a laboratory for playoff hockey."

The current favored team probably doesn't have much Conn Smythe value: None of the Maple Leafs players on the board are great bets simply because there are so many of them.

They're also not great bets because, as we've seen, favorites are vulnerable. The Panthers could knock Toronto out in the second round, and with Florida carrying both an underdog price and a clear Conn Smythe contender, now might be the time to hop on Tkachuk at 20-1 or better. If the Panthers pull off another upset, it will confirm their contender status - and the offseason addition of Tkachuk will be pegged as the reason.

Price matters

Speaking of the Panthers, Brandon Montour sure had a lot to do with their first-round win over the Bruins, but 40-1 is too short to ask him to sustain those heroics. If, however, you find him available at 100-1, that's a different story at a less taxing price point.

We backed a constellation of Stars before Dallas beat the Wild in Round 1. But we didn't throw a rope around Roope Hintz (12 points). He could continue to outpace his teammates, but it's equally likely that 109-point scorer Jason Robertson (seven points), defenseman Miro Heiskanen (six assists), and goaltender Jake Oettinger will siphon some value between now and mid-June. Dallas also has an easier path with Colorado eliminated, so while those players' prices are naturally shorter than they were before Round 1, they may not be short enough.

Conspicuous in their absence from the top of the odds board are any Devils players not named Akira Schmid or Jack Hughes. Those two were New Jersey's best in Round 1, but Nico Hischier (+7500), Timo Meier (+5000), Dougie Hamilton (+5000), or even Jesper Bratt (+10000) could emerge as New Jersey's most important player from here on out.

Matt Russell is the Lead Betting Analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

In our Rangers-Devils series preview, we discussed the concepts of beliefs in handicapping and personal priorities regarding elements of the game. That series represented the most significant referendum of the first round, pitting the Devils' vociferous five-on-five offense against the Rangers' reliance on outstanding goaltending and an ability to convert seemingly every one of the few quality chances they could generate.

New Jersey spotted New York two games because its own netminder - Vitek Vanecek - couldn't supply close to league-average goaltending while the Rangers converted four of 10 power-play opportunities. Handing the net to a rookie before Game 3, the Devils won four of the next five contests, including a decisive Game 7 in which they had 70% of the expected goals at even strength.

This second-round series won't provide the same validation to those who bet on an analytical basis. The Hurricanes and the Devils both dominated at five-on-five this season and were, in fact, our two top-rated teams - a concept that's easier to digest following the Bruins' first-round exit.

Series odds

Somewhat surprisingly, New Jersey is the favorite against the Hurricanes despite starting the series on the road. Though not as heavily favored, the Devils join the Oilers as favorites without home-ice advantage; those didn't exist in the first round.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first-round matchup (relative to their opponent).

One number jumps out: the Hurricanes' first-round rating. They topped the Islanders in six games but weren't the better team at even strength, owning 49% of the expected goals against a team that entered the playoffs with only a marginally above-average rating.

Advanced metrics at even strength

xG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

The Hurricanes led the regular season in even-strength expected goal share; the Devils finished second. New Jersey led the regular season in even-strength high-danger chance share; Carolina finished second. The Devils were better at converting their chances, while the Hurricanes were better at preventing opponents from capitalizing on their opportunities.

Goaltending matchup

Akira Schmid showed in 18 regular-season appearances that this might be possible, but no one could have predicted 5.71 goals saved above expected in five playoff games - a rate matching that of Igor Shesterkin.

Despite solid play from Antti Raanta through five games, Frederik Andersen got the start for Carolina in Game 6. He played well, preventing nearly two goals more than an average goaltender, so expect him to get the first look in Game 1.

Special teams

The Devils did well holding the Rangers to 18% efficiency with the man advantage in Round 1. They should be feeling some relief entering a second-round matchup against the Hurricanes and their less lethal power play.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

Carolina's first-round rating drags down its overall rating, and there's plenty of reason to buy into that: The loss of Andrei Svechnikov with a month left in the regular season may have contributed to a decreased high-danger conversion rate, an issue that became more serious after Teuvo Teravainen broke his hand in the first round. Though the Hurricanes remain strong up the middle, they lack scoring depth on the wings - as evidenced by their 9% high-danger conversion rate against the Islanders.

Best bets

New Jersey is all depth. Until the latter half of Game 7 against the Rangers, the team hadn't seen a goal from Jesper Bratt, Tomas Tatar, or Timo Meier - three players who combined for over 90 tallies this season - and still led its opponent.

The Devils won't have to cower before Carolina's power play, and they shouldn't see too many opposition jerseys at the Prudential Center after dispatching their local rivals.

Perhaps most importantly, Schmid could regress and still be even money to be the best goaltender in the series after a superhuman effort to keep pace with Shesterkin. Between all those factors and a surprising amount of value on the favorite, the Devils are the play in both Game 1 and the series.

Game 1: Devils moneyline (+100)
Series: Devils to win (-120)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The thin line between love and hate for the Stanley Cup Playoffs wasn't exclusive to the Kings-Oilers or Jets-Golden Knights series, but it was a clear one for Los Angeles and Winnipeg.

Maybe there was value on the Kings with the odds heavily favoring Edmonton. It especially felt that way with the Kings' early 3-0 lead and late 4-3 lead in Game 4 while up 2-1 in the series. Maybe the Jets were live at anything plus-money before starting their series in Vegas - it certainly felt that way after a convincing road win in Game 1.

But the Kings let go of their near-stranglehold on the series, and the Jets' injuries (plus a reversal of a presumed goaltending advantage) flipped the momentum, so the Oilers and Golden Knights did what other high-caliber teams could not: survive the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Series odds

The market already sniffed this one out. Vegas has the division title and the home-ice advantage that comes with it, but the Oilers are the better team. For the first - and maybe only - time this postseason, the team playing on the road in Game 1 is favored to win the series.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first round matchup (relative to their opponent).

What you do against who you're playing matters, particularly in the short term. So the Oilers driving even-strength play at 54% against a good team like the Kings - who had the ability to fire back - means more than the Golden Knights taking down the wounded-wing Jets.

Advanced metrics at even strength (regular season)

xG%= Expected goals share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

The Oilers only converted 9% of their even-strength high-danger chances against Joonas Korpisalo. I'd expect better against Laurent Brossoit, but even if that doesn't happen, that low rate was still good enough to win in six games.

How disappointing was Connor Hellebuyck? A minus-1.5 GSAx encapsulates the Golden Knights' unsustainable 21% HDC conversion rate on the Jets' goalie.

Goaltending matchup (regular season)

Stuart Skinner was OK against the Kings' high-danger chances, but a minus-2.35 GSAx for the series is very concerning as they now face a team known for usually converting chances at a high rate.

Special teams (regular season)

The Oilers had what felt like an unsustainably good power play during the regular season and somehow blew through the efficiency stratosphere in the first round, scoring more than half the time the Kings took a penalty. While Vegas consistently doesn't take penalties, the Jets actually had the second-best power play in Round 1.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

As alluded to above, the market's on top of this. The games in Vegas are coin flips, and the -110/-110 moneyline indicates that. We'll see what moneylines are available when the series shifts back to Vegas. The current available series prices fall in between anything close to a "must bet," so we have to find a play the old-fashioned way.

Best bets

With the unusual scenario of the favorite playing on the road for Game 1, it's important to determine how much we care about home-ice advantage in this series.

The Oilers handled a trio of road games in Los Angeles - a comparable road environment to Vegas - and won two of three, with the lone loss coming in overtime after a dubious no-call on a puck being contacted with a high-stick. The Oilers also have experience from last postseason's games in Calgary and Colorado. While the Golden Knights took both games in Winnipeg, the Oilers represent a considerable upgrade in opposition.

Having Game 6 at home makes the Oilers more likely to win in six games or better. They can hold serve in Edmonton and should be able to take at least one of the first three games in Vegas, setting up a potential closeout in Game 6, where a plus-money price will be valuable on a game with a moneyline that should be higher than -150.

The Oilers got their scare and are ready to take care of business - as long as their goaltending can hold up from Game 1.

Game 1: Oilers' moneyline (-110 or better)
Series: Oilers -1.5 games (+120 or better)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Are we having fun yet? Or is that just the feeling of exhaustion after eight nights' worth of mayhem in the Stanley Cup Playoffs? Each series has gone four games, and no one's been eliminated. We've hit a point in the first round where series positions have been established, so moneyline bets or in-series adds aren't often necessary. Nevertheless, we'll take a quick look at each series to dissect what to expect when it comes to closing time.

Islanders (+800) @ Hurricanes (-1600)

Even-strength numbers

Let's start with a public service announcement: For a series where the underdog has to run the table, just roll over the moneylines.

Here's what rolling over moneylines looks like for the Islanders on a $10 bet with lines of +140 in Game 5, -110 in Game 6, and +130 in Game 7:

• $10 x 2.4 x 1.9 x 2.3 = +$95 (+950)

The Isles' hopes rest on the fact that they've been the better team - with metrics that would suggest they'd be leading a series 57% of the time - and that as long as they're alive, there's still time for Ilya Sorokin to step up and bring a level of play similar to what Antti Raanta is providing the Hurricanes.

Wild (+130) @ Stars (-150)

Even-strength numbers

The reason to bet on the Stars before the series was because they might get something of a free win if the Wild stuck with their plan to play Marc-Andre Fleury at some point. Sure enough, the Stars rolled in Game 2, but now they have to deal with the best goalie in the series - Filip Gustavsson - who's saved almost a full goal above expectation per 60 minutes.

Jake Oettinger met Gustavsson's level in Game 4, so we'll hope that any pre-series or in-series positions on the Stars come through, with no value on either side currently.

Kings (+210) @ Oilers (-270)

Even-strength numbers

The Kings were so very close to cashing +1.5 series games tickets on Sunday, and now they're back to the same odds they had before the series and after Game 2. There's little to do beyond hold Kings tickets unless Jack Campbell starts for the Oilers in Game 5, which would trigger a bet on Los Angeles.

Panthers (+1500) @ Bruins (-3000)

Even-strength numbers

When one out of every six high-danger chances is going in at one end of the ice, and one out of every 10-plus high-danger chances is going in at the other end, there's going to be a lopsided result relative to metrics like expected goals. That's the difference between Linus Ullmark playing up to his standard and the Panthers' goaltenders playing down to theirs - a standard that was always going to have to change or be overcome.

Kraken (+210) @ Avalanche (-270)

Even-strength numbers

There's no one on the Kraken roster who'll make your jaw drop with skill like Nathan MacKinnon's speed, Cale Makar's agility, and Mikko Rantanen's release. However, if the Avalanche aren't careful, they're going to get beat. The pre-series issue remains: How do you price the defending champs who aren't guaranteed to show up for a period or a game? Now a three-game series, more variance is in play for an upset, so the Kraken's odds are shorter than before the series.

Lightning (+750) @ Maple Leafs (-1200)

Even-strength numbers

The problem with a 3-1 lead is that now you can blow a 3-1 lead. Those following the pre-series handicap are sitting on a handful of tickets for a quick series, and all you can ask for is a home game to close it out. In Games 1 and 2, the Maple Leafs drove play at a two-thirds rate, while the Lightning had a slight edge at home. Both kept with the moneyline odds for the game, so pricing seems pretty fair.

Rangers (-115) @ Devils (-105)

Even-strength numbers

The Devils scored their first goal on an even-strength high-danger chance in the series in Game 4. One goal out of 50 tries when staring down Igor Shesterkin is a wild stat, yet the Devils are headed back home tied at two.

Not to overcomplicate things, the Devils replaced Vitek Vanecek's minus-2.99 goals saved above expectation (GSAx) with Akira Schmid's plus-3.29 GSAx in two games. With that change in quality between the pipes, very little else matters. The Devils were -125 to win the series before it started, and now they're -105 with questions in net answered and their own HDC conversion rate set to improve.

Jets (+750) @ Golden Knights (-1200)

Even-strength numbers

Betting on the Jets was really more of a fade of the Golden Knights, particularly at prices that suggested that you were getting plus money on a coin flip before the series. However, sometimes the coin lands on the wrong side, even if it's weighted. Winnipeg has had key player after key player injured and isn't getting anything from Connor Hellebuyck to save the day.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We've looked at the four series in the Eastern Conference as they shift within one time zone from Game 2 to Game 3. In the West, longer trips between new sites are on the docket as we take a closer look at the first segment of each series in preparation for this weekend.

Stars (-150) @ Wild (+130)

Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

It's been just one game for each, but our hypothesis that any appearance from Marc-Andre Fleury instead of Filip Gustavsson would be a mistake for the Wild was certainly supported after the latter was awesome in a Game 1 win, while the former allowed 3.32 goals above expectation in Game 2.

The Wild's even-strength production has come in the first two of four-plus periods in Game 1 and the third period of Game 2 - when they trailed by three goals. That suggests their pressure might be cosmetic, and we haven't seen the best of Jake Oettinger either, as he's allowed four goals on 20 high-danger chances at even strength and has just 0.67 goals saved above expectation.

Is there a bet?

The Stars' superiority in neutral game states and the possibility of Oettinger having better consistency are reasons to feel good about being twice committed to Dallas. Those two factors are perhaps why the series' odds have reverted back to pre-series prices, which normally wouldn't make a ton of sense with Minnesota now having home-ice advantage and the increased likelihood that we've seen the last of Fleury.

Oilers (-250) @ Kings (+200)

Friday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Sunday, 9:00 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

The Kings are getting outplayed by the Oilers, and a late tying goal in Game 1 followed by an OT winner is indicative of how they're barely tied in this series. Bettors have to ask themselves if it's a good or bad sign that these metrics exist while the Kings are accomplishing some of the things they'd hope for.

As Connor McDavid said after Game 2, the Kings' "goaltender is good." Joonas Korpisalo has a 2.08 GSAx and allowed just two goals against in high-danger situations. McDavid has just one assist, and now the Kings can easily match lines at home with Phillip Danault and Anze Kopitar. Los Angeles is also staying out of the penalty box, with just four power plays allowed - especially important with the Oilers' 2/4 mark on the PP.

Is there a bet?

The series price here has also reverted despite Los Angeles getting home-ice advantage, and the shift should benefit the Kings during five-on-five play. They're already staying out of the box and they have the goaltending advantage, so at +130, the Kings are the bet in both games this weekend.

Golden Knights (-145) @ Jets (+120)

Game 3, Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

We thought that this series would be something of a coin-flip before it started, and if you look at the even-strength expected goals and high-danger chances, here we are.

The Jets should be hoping for better out of Connor Hellebuyck than his minus-0.52 goals saved above expectation, and better than 25% of the Golden Knights' even-strength high-danger chances finding the net. With stronger overall numbers and all four of his shutouts this season coming at home, Hellebuyck should be better in Game 3 and Game 4.

Is there a bet?

After two games, there's no reason to believe we're not headed for at least a Game 6 in this series, and while you'd hope an 8-seed would be an underdog even at home, a -110 price is short enough to take the Jets in Game 3.

Avalanche (-275) @ Kraken (+220)

Game 3, Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET

Using expected goals and high-danger chances, the Avalanche have only driven even-strength play at about a 52% rate, which is why bets on the Kraken in the first two games at around +175 netted a positive result despite the split.

Philipp Grubauer is second to Igor Shesterkin in GSAx through two games this postseason, so concern about goaltending can be tempered in the Pacific Northwest.

Is there a bet?

Though they've been better on the road this season, in their first-ever home playoff game, the Kraken can again capitalize on the kind of good start they got off to in the first two games. And unlike some of the other underdogs such as the Islanders, Lightning, and Wild, we're getting a decent price at +135 on the Kraken to retake the series lead.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Eight Game 2s spread across two nights featured some good and some bad for our in-series plays after each opener, with the Panthers, Stars, and Maple Leafs bouncing back from losses whose underlying metrics suggested better results might be ahead.

As series change sites this weekend, it's worth a closer look at the first segment of each series. We'll start in the Eastern Conference, with four more in the West to come.

Bruins (-270) @ Panthers (+220)

Game 3: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

(xG: expected goals; HDC: high-danger chances; HDG: high-danger goals)

The Panthers' regular-season metrics suggested they might be able to compete with the Bruins, but a 63% expected goals share is above and beyond. Predictably, Linus Ullmark has been up to the task against the Panthers' high-danger chances (HDC), but five goals against on non-high-danger chances are a surprise. That's undermined the Bruins' two power-play goals and shorthanded goal to the Panthers' zero special-teams scores.

Is there a bet?

If we didn't know what logos these numbers were associated with, we'd jump at the chance to back a team that's returning home after driving most of the play on the road and due for a special-teams breakthrough. With two chances to win at a plus-money price at home, the Panthers are worth a pair of bets this weekend in hopes they win at least one and also cash earlier tickets on over 5.5 games or +2.5 games.

Hurricanes (-800) @ Islanders (+550)

Game 3: Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Game 4: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

We thought the Islanders might be up for a better effort in Game 2, and they were. They just forgot that you don't want to give up a goal off a puck your own team swatted, give up another goal on a bank shot off your goalie's head, and then get high-sticked in front of two officials without a call. Otherwise, a 14-5 advantage in high-danger chances bodes well for their return home, even if it'll be tough to climb out of an 0-2 hole against the Hurricanes.

With 42 total even-strength HDC in two games, the Islanders are supposed to have the goaltending advantage in a more wide-open game, but Antti Raanta has stopped 30 of 31 high-danger chances at all strengths.

Is there a bet?

We were hoping to get an underdog price with the Isles back home, but the market pushed them out to -120. With the metrics above due for a correction on the scoreboard, hopefully that comes one game late. The Isles are still worth backing in Game 3, Game 4, and at +2.5 series games.

Maple Leafs (-165) @ Lightning (+135)

Game 3: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

Even-strength numbers

On the scoreboard, it looked like the Maple Leafs flipped the script on the Lightning in Game 2. But answering a 7-3 loss with a 7-2 win had more to do with converting 3-of-12 HDC at even strength and going 2-of-6 on the power play - including one in the first minute - instead of giving up four power-play goals and an early goal against like they did in Game 1.

Is there a bet?

With positions on the Leafs to win the series - and to do so in six games or fewer - there's no need to back them at a shorter price than we'd hoped for in Game 3. However, it changes the calculus if Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak aren't ready to go. If you haven't committed on this series going forward, the lopsided even-strength metrics and the Leafs' good road record make them an inviting bet against a thin defense, but Ilya Samsonov still needs to do better than stopping four of six high-danger chances at even strength.

Devils (+360) @ Rangers (-500)

Game 3: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

The Devils are the only team that dropped its first two home games, and you have to feel for them. After a coming-out season, the young Devils got matched up with their local rivals and are getting thoroughly Ranger'd.

As usual, the metrics don't love New York, but sure enough, Igor Shesterkin is 20-for-20 against the Devils' even-strength high-danger chances and leads the league in playoff goals saved above expectation so far. Making matters worse, Vitek Vanecek has been the worst goalie of the playoffs this side of Marc-Andre Fleury.

You could see it coming from outside the arena, but the Rangers' 3-of-18 converted HDC is above the league average of one in every eight, and scoring on 4-of-10 power plays is above expectations as well. That's just their recipe for winning.

Is there a bet?

With no sign of either goaltender changing their stripes as the scene shifts to Broadway, coin-flip metrics between the two creases aren't enough to justify putting more money toward New Jersey.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We've seen one game for each of the eight first-round playoff series, and while that's just 60 (or sometimes more) minutes of action, it's a data point for each matchup. Things went well for the Kings, Kraken, and Jets' chances of turning value into victory, so we'll stick to our guns there. Let's take that first data point for the other five series, where, despite some lopsided scores, there were no big mismatches. We'll compare the metrics to pre-series betting lines in order to see what virtual tickets we should put in our virtual pocket mid-series.

Islanders to win series (+325)

We thought this series would feature close, low-scoring games, and that's what we got in Game 1. The Hurricanes got the first goal, so it felt like they controlled play on the way to victory, but the even-strength high-danger chance total wasn't only 12-11 in the Islanders' favor, but that total is higher than expected. If chances are going to be as abundant going forward, Ilya Sorokin has a better chance to be a difference-maker. The Canes really only held serve by winning at home. Now at +325, has that much changed from when the Isles were +170? Whether the Islanders swipe Game 2 in Raleigh or flip things back to even on Long Island, this series is far from over.

Panthers/Bruins over 5.5 games (+110)

Like Carolina, the Bruins got the jump on their opponent in Game 1, but the Panthers actually acquitted themselves well relative to the questions we asked of them before the series. The soft goal allowed got the headlines, but Alex Lyon made some big saves to keep Florida in it, and the Panthers outchanced the Bruins 15-9 in high-danger areas. Florida at +200 in Game 2 is interesting, but the assumption that this series is going to end quickly is creating a plus-money price on it going six games or more. That's a deal if the Panthers can keep creating goals at nearly 60% of the game flow.

Stars to win series (+110)

The Stars weren't the better team in the first two periods of Game 1, as the Wild won the expected goal (xG) battle 1.45-0.64. However, the Stars took over for the next two-plus periods, winning the xG split 2.65-1.2. The Stars missed numerous glorious chances to end it and allowed the Wild to eventually get the game-winner, but context matters, and I'm more willing to back the team that was better later. We didn't get Marc-Andre Fleury in goal as we hoped for in Game 1, which saved us a loss in the ledger when Filip Gustavsson stopped better than two goals above expected (2.1 GSAx), but we'll bet against him to maintain that level for six more games, especially at a plus-price for the Stars.

Maple Leafs to win series (+110)

If the city known as the "Big Smoke" went up in flames after a 7-3 loss to the Lightning, we'd joke about waiting for the smoldering embers to cool before looking at Game 1 objectively. However, the sad truth is that apathy has crept in given the dire expectations prevailing in Toronto. Still, with a 15-6 even-strength high-danger-chance rate, if the Maple Leafs get better than self-admitted "shit" goaltending from Ilya Samsonov (-2.23 GSAx), there's reason to believe they're still the better team.

The Leafs can win a game on the road, so a series that was probably destined to be longer than necessary remains just as likely to go the distance. The Leafs were -160 in Game 1 at home and are approaching that again for Game 2. Having +110 on the Leafs in Game 7 would provide value, and I wouldn't rule out Toronto winning in six games, especially if Tampa Bay's defensive injuries are significant - particularly in the case of Victor Hedman.

Devils to win series (+165)

We felt like the odds were underrating the Devils before the series, and New Jersey's home loss in Game 1 now makes it a big underdog in the market to the flashier Rangers. But with both teams boasting better road records than at home and next to no travel, should a 16%-20% probability change be warranted? Maybe if the Devils had been woefully outplayed, but a 2.27-1.51 advantage in even-strength expected goals and a 12-10 edge in high-danger chances at five-on-five suggests the 5-1 final score wasn't indicative of each team's play. The Devils can get back to level in this series, and if they do, having a +165 ticket will look pretty good. After all, this is entirely the point of hopping into these series after just one game.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

With Sidney Crosby and the Penguins' playoff streak snapped, the team that no one has any fun playing - the Islanders - laid claim to the final Stanley Cup Playoffs spot. Their reward? A best-of-seven series with the top-rated team in terms of expected goals at even strength. Of course, the Hurricanes won't be thrilled about needing to overcome Ilya Sorokin to convert those to actual goals, especially with how they finished the season offensively.

Series odds

This is the second-biggest favorite that this iteration of the Hurricanes has been, as they were well into the -200s before a first-round series with the Predators two years ago. They shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Islanders, who routinely find themselves as the underdog this time of year.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied, and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season, and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

Yes, you read that correctly. The Hurricanes came out of this season as the top-ranked team in my rating system, even though their comparative statistics slowed down from their unsustainable levels early in the season.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

If the idea is to accrue as many high-quality scoring chances as possible without allowing those same chances to opponents, Carolina is doing something right. Only the Devils had more high-danger scoring chances than the Hurricanes, and no one allowed fewer. They'll need that disparity against a goaltender who stopped high-danger chances at an impressively high rate.

Goaltending matchup

The Isles know who they're rolling with - the goaltender with the highest goals saved above expected and the third-best save percentage in the NHL. As Sorokin looks to conduct his latest symphony, who the Hurricanes turn to for Game 1 is something of a state secret. Rod Brind'Amour says it's either Frederik Andersen or Antti Raanta, but he hasn't made the call yet. It's not the disparity that we see in the Wild-Stars series, and ironically, their best goaltender statistically was third-choice Pyotr Kochetkov (plus-10.07 GSAx).

Special teams

The Islanders fell short of hitting a standard goal to have their special teams' efficiency add up to over 100. Their power play isn't going to make up any ground for the odd goal that Sorokin gives up. Meanwhile, the Canes shouldn't expect to get many chances for their mediocre man advantage, either, as the Isles gave up the second-fewest power-play opportunities this season.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

The Hurricanes often showed up as valuable in the latter half of the season because the model had a hard time catching up to what Carolina is without Andrei Svechnikov. The Canes' star scorer went down with a torn ACL on March 11. We said when it happened that we'd revisit the Hurricanes after we saw what they look like without him.

Best bets

Let's take a look at the findings for the version of the Hurricanes we're likely to see this postseason. Since March 11, Carolina still managed a good expected goal share at 57.2% and 55.3% of the high-danger chances during even-strength play. However, of their 220 HDCs since Svechnikov's injury, they've only scored on 20 of them - a miserable 9.1% rate. That's considerably worse than their 11.4% rate from when Svechnikov was healthy.

Take that 9% rate and apply it against Sorokin's ability to frustrate even highly efficient scorers, and any bet on the Hurricanes in this series will likely result in viewer frustration as chances pile up but the scoreboard remains unchanged.

Low-scoring games mean the series may feature multiple overtimes and games that swing on a few timely goals. So why not take a shot at some plus-money series results?

Just because the games are close, doesn't mean each team has to win equally. Maybe one team wins the close games, and this series ends earlier than expected. If the Islanders get those goals and the Hurricanes never find the right goaltender in the right game, some bigger payouts are in play.

Game 1: Under 5.5 (-130)
Series: Under 5.5 games (+140)
Series: Islanders -1.5 games (+310)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The days of the mispriced big underdog are long gone. Years ago, if a defending Stanley Cup champion who won a third straight division as part of their title defense took on a second-year expansion team in the first round, the champ would be a massive favorite.

Unfortunately, we know too much now. Thanks to the widespread availability of advanced metrics, we know the Avalanche didn't have the season they'd hoped for, while the Kraken weren't necessarily a fluke in securing the first wild card.

Series odds

Let's use a hypothetical when trying to frame the odds for this series.

You bet the Kraken to win, and they do. Shortly after the series, you mention that winning bet to a non-bettor friend, and, amazed at your foresight, they ask you what the payout was. If you said, "just better than 2-to-1," doesn't it feel like the odds aren't long enough for what seems like a somewhat monumental upset?

In turn, as we'll discover below, the odds might be too long relative to how each team performed this year. By comparing the numbers to the narrative, it feels like these prices are located somewhere in between, depending on your purview.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes their vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated for the season and when isolating play after the All-Star break.

The Kraken profile as the consistently inconsistent average NHL team that we often find in the category of borderline playoff participant. What makes this series so uncertain is that the Avalanche didn't profile that much better than average this season.

Advanced metrics at even strength

XG%= Expected goal share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = 12.5%

Both Seattle and Colorado excelled at converting whatever high-danger chances they managed at even strength, which were fewer than they surrendered. Avalanche goaltenders were much better at stopping opponents' high-danger chances, leading to Colorado's nine-point advantage in the standings.

Goaltending matchup

Philipp Grubauer faces his former team after Martin Jones didn't do nearly enough to take and hold onto the starting job. By comparison to his first season in Seattle, Grubauer's second campaign was an improvement, but he's still little more than replacement level.

Ironically, Alexandar Georgiev almost matched Darcy Kuemper's 0.29 GSAx from the 2021-22 regular season, which is what the Avalanche hoped for when they let Kuemper go and paid $2 million less for similar quality.

Special teams

The Avalanche had an almost identical power-play efficiency last season, but once the playoffs started, they flipped a switch to where they were making their opponents pay for taking penalties - converting almost one-third of their power plays.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide, where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

As we alluded to above, a metrics-based "price to bet" suggests that the Kraken are an auto-play on the series line and on a game-by-game basis as well. To complicate matters further, the Kraken had much better results on the road than at home this season, and their home-ice advantage credit had to be docked accordingly.

Best bet

While the comparable even-strength metrics suggest value on the Kraken, creating a path to victory for Seattle is difficult since there's little to suggest that the team's goaltending can be a positive difference-maker, and finding an edge via special teams seems unlikely as well. However, in a seven-game series, anything is possible.

What we may find with a pair of teams that had above-average HDC conversion rates and unspectacular goaltending is that betting on offense is the way to go for this series. Over 36 total goals for the series is a derivative market bet that provides one way to play this series on the idea that it goes long while maintaining the possibility that it could cash in just five games as well.

Looking ahead in this series, one spot where I'll take a chance with the value that the market is offering on the Kraken is in Game 3 - Seattle's first-ever Stanley Cup Playoffs game, where we should be getting a plus price on the moneyline.

Gabriel Landeskog isn't returning for the Avs, and Cale Makar has battled injury all season. We can't be certain the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner will play or sustain his usual level, which would really make Seattle a live underdog.

Should the Kraken series price get up to +250, that would be enough to coax me into taking a shot on Seattle, but a small bet on them to jump on the Avalanche - and close out the series before a Game 7 in Denver - is worth it at big odds.

Game 1: Over 6 goals (-110)
Series: Kraken -1.5 games (+425)

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.