It's not as dramatic as the popular 2015 Netflix documentary "Making a Murderer." Instead of exposing the police and judicial system in rural Wisconsin, we're merely going to bring to light how an NHL moneyline is made.

We started the NFL season with a similar exercise, but football is predicated on point spread wagers, while NHL betting is done primarily on the moneyline. It's more difficult to assign odds for a team to win in hockey than it is to guess what a point spread should be in a football game.

What's behind a moneyline?

Moneylines are a function of win probability. If your team is -200 to win a game, it is deemed 66.6% likely to win since you have to put up $200 to win $100. If you think there's better than a two-thirds chance the favorite is victorious, the team would be worth a bet. The opponent would likely be around +170 on the moneyline or 37% likely to win. If you think the likelihood of winning is closer to 50/50, it's worth a bet on the underdog.

*If you're doing the math and realizing that the two percentages above don't equal 100%, that excess percentage is the sportsbook's rake, otherwise known as "vig" or "juice," and is how sportsbooks make money.

What goes into team ratings?

You can guess the percentage likelihood a team wins each game, or you can be more informed. Moneyline odds are created off a team's market rating, with a starting point of how likely the team is to beat an average NHL team.

There are three main pieces of information you can use to rate teams.

1. Last season's results/metrics
2. The regular season point total betting market
3. Current season results/metrics

Obviously, with days to go before the regular season starts, we have no information for the third piece. As the season progresses and more data points are accrued, that category can become more important and take up a larger piece of the information pie.

Last season's metrics are relevant because they're tangible on-ice results. Most teams see them change each season, but last year, only the Blues, Ducks, Blue Jackets and Blackhawks saw their underlying metrics crater. On the positive side, the Hurricanes, Devils, Maple Leafs, Lightning and Kraken had massive upward changes in how they played at even strength from 2021-22 to 2022-23.

What's an average team?

In football, baseball, or basketball, an average team is expected to finish at .500. In the NHL, because three points are assigned for a game that goes to overtime, that number is weirder. Last year, the average NHL team accrued 91.43 points. In the Eastern Conference, you needed 92 points to make the playoffs. In the Western Conference, meanwhile, 92 points resulted in barely missing the playoffs because there were three teams with 60 points or less, which boosted everyone else's total on that side of the league.

To rate each team relative to the league average, we look at a handful of sportsbooks' regular season point total markets and take the average for each team. Carolina led the way with a projected point total of 107.5.

We'll then take each team's total and divide it by 91.43. Here's how that looks for the Hurricanes:

• 107.5 / 91.42 = 1.176

An average team - like the Jets or Senators - is lined at 91.5 and a 1.00 rating. So, the Hurricanes have been assessed as 17.6% above average, while the Sharks' super-low point total of 66.5 has them 27.2% below a league-average team.

Translating regular season points into market ratings

Creating moneylines

Here's the math portion of the program.

Now that we have each team's percentage against an average team, how do we compare them to each other?

1. Let's use the season-opening matchup between the Predators (-4.8) and Lightning (+4.5), take the rating difference (9.3) between the two teams, and apply it so that the difference is reflected across a 50/50 proposition:
   • Lightning's chance of winning: 0.5 + (9.3 / 2) = 0.546
   • Predators' chance of winning: 1 - 0.5465 = 0.456
2. Since these games are not played on neutral ice, a home-ice advantage should be applied. Last season, home teams went 687-625 or 52.3%. That's actually lower than the previous season of 704-608 of 53.6%. If we split the difference over 2,624 games, home-ice advantage has meant 3% to the home team's win probability (WP).
   • Lightning's chance of winning: 0.546 + 0.03 = 0.576
   • Predators' chance of winning: 1 - 0.576 = 0.424

At that point, using a standard win probability to moneyline calculator found online, we know that a fair price for the Lightning is -136 and the Predators +136.

Here's how that game breaks down relative to the currently available line:

At the price of +150, betting on the Predators would return a 2.4% profit over 100 games. It might not be worth backing the underdog in Game 1 of 1,312, but finding an edge isn't easy, even when you know how to look for it.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Panthers better hope that home-ice advantage - which hasn't been all that relevant throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs - is a series-changer Thursday night. Home teams went 19-31 in the first round and have been essentially a 50-50 proposition since. With the Stanley Cup Final heading down to Sunrise for the first time in the finals, the Panthers will hope the sun doesn't set on their championship hopes.

Series: Golden Knights (-500) vs. Panthers (+400)

Even-strength numbers

At even strength, the Golden Knights haven't generated pressure - measured in expected goals - or high-danger chances at a wildly greater level than their opponents. However, a gap in goaltending quality led to disaster for Florida in Game 2.

Adin Hill has 3.17 goals saved above expected this series, while the Panthers' netminders combined for minus-3.54 GSAx. That's an almost seven-goal gap. The Golden Knights got back to doing what they do best Monday - converting even-strength high-danger chances at an outlandish rate. Vegas had 10 such chances in Game 2 and scored four goals.

Panthers head coach Paul Maurice says he has "complete faith in what (Sergei Bobrovsky) can do in Game 3." What else could he say? We knew before the series that the Panthers would need at least average goaltending, and they haven't gotten that yet. That's the first step to turning this series around. Scoring more on Hill - whose play has been surprisingly awesome - would help too.

We're still waiting on Florida's first power-play goal of the series, while Vegas scored the first and last of its seven goals in Game 2 on the man advantage. That's something few could've seen coming given that the Panthers converted 28% of their power plays coming into this series, while the Golden Knights had converted just 18%.

Florida is the slight favorite for Thursday's game. The +400 payout on a Panthers series comeback suggests they can win four of the next five games 20% of the time.

That means a bet on the Panthers at this point is a bet on whether you think Maurice is onto something - that Bobrovsky will be better (and Hill worse). That'd give Florida a chance to translate the comparable even-strength metrics to a more even result on the scoreboard.

Ideally, the Panthers will be more disciplined. But looking at most of the penalties taken, it's hard to know where the line is between playing aggressively and out of control. Vegas is 4/11 on the power play, while Florida is 0/7. Those will need to get closer to level after the next two games. I'm willing to believe that'll happen in the two games in Sunrise - the Panthers could go 3/9 on the power play while the Golden Knights go 1/7.

Accomplishing these two hypothetical goals might get this series back to even, at which point having a +400 ticket in pocket would provide some flexibility.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Six weeks ago, we looked at the math in the Conn Smythe betting market before the Stanley Cup Playoffs. We listed 23 players who had shorter odds than 50-1, and now just two remain from those atop the oddsboard - Jack Eichel and Mark Stone.

Everyone else on the Golden Knights and each member of the Panthers has seen an increase in their chances to win playoff MVP. Of course, because the Conn Smythe Trophy is awarded for a players' body of work during the entirety of a postseason, previous contributions should be a factor in voting, and therefore, the odds.

Conn Smythe Trophy odds

The most notable thing from the players listed above is the dichotomy between the players of each team. The Panthers have two main candidates - one in net and one top contributor amongst Florida skaters. The gap from Matthew Tkachuk at +375 to the next most likely Panther (Aleksander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe) is a chasm that's filled with Golden Knights, as six different Vegas players are still legitimate options.

The favorite among the Golden Knights - Eichel - leads the team in scoring with 18 points but didn't score a goal in their previous series. It will be a challenge to get to 27 points - the total Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin scored in 2017 and 2018. However, five other forwards since 2011 have won the award with 25 points or less.

This is important if you like the Golden Knights, because it means that anyone from the following list could catch fire and sway the voters with a big series:

• Jack Eichel: 6 goals, 12 assists
• Jonathan Marchessault: 9 goals, 8 assists, 3 game-winning goals
• Mark Stone: 6 goals, 9 assists, 1 game-winning goal
• Ivan Barbashev: 6 goals, 9 assists, 1 game-winning goal
• William Karlsson: 10 goals, 4 assists
• Chandler Stephenson: 8 goals, 6 assists, 3 game-winning goals

As far as opportunity is concerned, just two-and-a-half minutes of average ice time separate those with the most and least of this group. If they're all just as likely to add to their resume, why not take a stab at the longest shot, or shots, of the group?

By now, perhaps you know that we're betting on the Panthers to win the series on the slightest of edges for an underdog in a series that we have as at least a toss-up, but that isn't without respect for the Golden Knights. In fact, their ability to convert even-strength high-danger chances at an absurdly high rate this postseason might translate to Sergei Bobrovsky's candidacy taking a hit in higher-scoring games.

That would make us feel good about Tkachuk - a player we added after Round 1 at 20-1, who is the Panthers' most valuable skater with four high-profile game-winning goals. He will likely lead the playoffs in scoring.

If you've bought into Tkachuk along the way, you can effectively corner the market on Panthers with a play on Bobrovsky. But if the Golden Knights are more your flavor, making low-stakes/high-payout bets on under-the-radar candidates is worth a shot.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Another year, another surprise finalist for the Stanley Cup. But get past the talk of being an 8-seed and the Panthers have a loaded resume.

Going 11-1 in its last 12 games against the vaunted Bruins, the momentarily relieved Maple Leafs, and the analytics-darling Hurricanes, Florida comes into the ultimate series - a battle for hockey's Holy Grail - as the underdog for the fourth straight time. The Vegas Golden Knights get a slight nod because of home-ice advantage.

Series odds

The Golden Knights get the honor of being short favorites for the Stanley Cup Final. A +115 price indicates 46.5% implied win probability, compared to the Golden Knights' 57.4% at -135. Shaving 2% off each side to remove the sportsbooks' 4% hold, the assumption is a 55.5/45.5 split in favor of Vegas. Adjust for a 4% flip due to home-ice advantage, if these games were played on neutral ice, it would be as close to a true coin-flip as we could expect out of a championship matchup.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their previous playoff matchups (relative to their opponent).

The Panthers played out of their expected range while coming back to beat Boston in the first round, but they were mostly above average in edging Toronto and Carolina, thanks in part to four overtime wins (plus Matthew Tkachuk's buzzer-beating Stanley Cup Final berth clincher).

The Golden Knights consistently played 8-10% above an average team in dispatching the Jets, Oilers, and Stars.

Advanced metrics at even strength (Playoffs)

xG%= Expected goals share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

The even-strength playoff metrics show that the outlier performances often needed to survive the brutality of a playoff run are colliding. Neither team has relied on an expected goal advantage, but the Panthers have held opponents below an expected high-danger chance conversion level, while the Golden Knights have converted those chances on offense way above league average.

Goaltending matchup (goals saved above expected/60 minutes)

Both goaltenders were underwhelming in the regular season, with the Panthers looking to deploy just about anyone other than Sergei Bobrovsky, and the Golden Knights playing Logan Thompson, Laurent Brossoit and acquiring Jonathan Quick when they had Adin Hill the whole time.

By comparison, Ilya Sorokin, the leader in GSAx in the regular season, averaged 0.86 goals saved above average per 60 minutes.

Special teams (regular season)

The Panthers have improved their power play to a 28% efficiency in the postseason and now get a matchup with the Golden Knights' 63% penalty kill. At 18.5%, Vegas has also been less effective on the power play than in the regular season.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

The good news is that the same numbers that led us to bets on the Panthers over the Bruins, the Maple Leafs and the Hurricanes suggest a bet here. The bad news is that those same numbers didn't love the Golden Knights in Round 1, 2 or 3. Luckily, plus-money priced wins on Florida have out-paced losses fading Vegas.

Best bets

We came away from Round 1 lauding Vegas for what seemed like an unsustainable conversion rate of 20.8%, blaming Connor Hellebuyck for not stepping up and making the big saves.

In Round 2, Stuart Skinner took the heat in Edmonton as Vegas somehow surpassed its first-round efficiency by scoring on 12 of its 50 even-strength high-danger chances.

We hypothesized that Jake Oettinger couldn't possibly succumb to these unsustainable rates. With a subpar GSAx coming into the series that was reputation-based, he could not as Vegas went 14/56.

Sergei Bobrovsky is the first goaltender to come in with the numbers to back up the hope that someone can reel in the Golden Knights' outrageous even-strength high-danger conversion rate and level the playing field. With that, the Panthers can then out-class Vegas via special teams. With eight of their 12 wins coming on the road this postseason, travel shouldn't be an issue, especially since Florida's the side with the plus-price yet again.

Game 1: Panthers moneyline (+115)
Series: Panthers to win (+110)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Golden Knights and Stars went to overtime Thursday for the third time in four Western Conference Final games. But for the first time in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Vegas lost a game in overtime - after three wins - and Dallas won in OT - following four failed tries.

There isn't enough disparity between playoff-caliber NHL teams to not consider any matchup that's a draw after 60 minutes something of a coin flip once it gets to overtime. You'll rarely see a live moneyline outside of -130 (56.5% implied win probability) for the favorite once the game enters OT.

Winning or losing three-to-four overtime contests in a row is a true lesson in variance. How much different might the Eastern Conference playoffs look if the Panthers went 3-3 in overtime instead of 6-0 on their run to the Stanley Cup Final? What if the Golden Knights had lost one of their previous overtime games? This Western Conference Final would potentially look a lot different had the Stars managed a split in Vegas.

When Joe Pavelski scored in Thursday's Game 4 to break the dueling overtime goose eggs, the Stars kept their season alive, and we get playoff hockey this weekend. But should we expect this series to return to Dallas? If we've learned anything, there's no such thing as expectation - just value.

Stars (+115) @ Golden Knights (-135)

The Golden Knights are up 3-1 in the series, and Stars captain Jamie Benn is out for one more game due to suspension. Vegas is still converting even-strength high-danger chances at an absurd clip with a 2-for-10 performance in Game 4, while the Stars still need more opportunities than usual to get a goal (1-for-15 Thursday). With all that considered, the Game 5 moneylines aren't all that different than where they were ahead of Game 1 when Dallas took enough money to close +105.

Every contest - and this series as a whole - has come down to three things:

1. The Golden Knights' high-danger chance conversions - can they maintain a scoring rate above 20%?
2. Adin Hill (4.07 GSAx) outplaying Jake Oettinger (minus-2.67 GSAx)
3. The Stars' power play: 1-for-7 in Games 1-3, 2-for-2 in Game 4

The first two elements are somewhat related. If Oettinger struggles, Vegas will probably score better than the league-average high-danger chance conversion rate of 12%. Reputedly good at bouncing back from a bad loss, Oettinger improved his goals saved above expectation numbers in Game 4 by stopping 0.62 GSAx.

That was only slightly better than Hill, who saved just shy of a half-goal above expectation. The performance was actually less than Hill's standard since taking over from Laurent Brossoit, as he's saved 9.63 goals above expected in nine contests this postseason.

The nature of sample sizes is that you should have patience while the data widens as more games and minutes are played. The longer the Stars survive, the more opportunity Oettinger has to get back to statistical average by playing consistently better. Dallas will also have more time to bring Hill down to a statistical level befitting a goaltender on his third team in three years and who was as low as fourth on the Golden Knights' depth chart this season.

Reliance on power-play efficiencies to predict goals in a game is often a fool's errand. On the one hand, there were only three power plays in Game 4, yet Pavelski's game-winner came on the man advantage in overtime. It's only important if the few chances are converted. The Stars' power play has now revived the postseason for Dallas' top goal-scorer. Jason Robertson has four goals in the series, with two coming on the power play. His 11 shots on goal in Game 4 indicate that even without Benn, the Stars not only feel the urgency of an elimination game but can do something about it.

Dallas made it through two rounds with shaky goaltending and without getting much from Robertson. What if we're seeing both of those elements turn from minuses to pluses? In what have been 50-50 games (excluding Game 3), the Stars are the bet to extend the series at anything better than an even-money price for their moneyline in Game 5.

Pick: Stars moneyline (+115)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

In a bizarre twist - given the usual parity of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and the tight pre-series odds in both conference finals - the Hurricanes and Stars are on the brink of being the first two sweeps of the 2023 postseason.

More to our expectation of a close series, it took until the sixth cumulative game of Round 3 for any team to take a two-goal lead. When the Golden Knights chased Jake Oettinger in the first period on Tuesday, that was the first real inclination of a one-sided game result despite the decisive series leads.

What's left for bettors to do with two series that could go the minimum but involve matchups where no team has been given even a 60% chance to win an individual game based on the moneylines?

Series: Hurricanes (+900) vs. Panthers (-1600)

Even-strength numbers

If this were a blind-resume test, it would take a while before you got to "Panthers 3-0" for your guess as to the status of this series - even though unusual results aren't out of the question for a matchup that was priced tightly. The Panthers have essentially won three straight coin-flip games - two overtime finishes and via a lone power-play goal in Game 3.

Florida has taken a commanding lead thanks to Sergei Bobrovsky. Even with the assistance of four extra periods of scoreless action in Game 1, Bobrovsky's 11.14 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), according to Evolving-Hockey, and the Hurricanes' 1-for-51 high-danger chance conversion rate are both jaw-dropping stats. In 2833 regular-season minutes, Bobrovsky totaled 2.92 GSAx.

Could Bobrovsky's fortunes turn at any moment? It's not impossible, which means the possibility exists for a Canes comeback. If that's something you're interested in, we have to compare the current series price to rolling over the Carolina moneyline for the remaining four games.

Even with two potential weighted coins in favor of the Hurricanes (-140) at home, you may get a better price by taking an initial stake and continuing to add profits from each moneyline win to the following game's bet.

Don't want to commit to a full-blown Canes comeback? You can lock in fair prices on Carolina +2.5 games at +240 or Carolina +1.5 games at +550. But rolling over moneylines allows the bettor a chance to pull their money off the table should something change in either team's available personnel.

Series: Stars (+900) vs. Golden Knights (-1600)

Even-strength numbers

I've joked about how - all postseason - it feels like if the Golden Knights get a high-danger scoring chance, it's going in the net. Just 71 seconds into Game 3, Vegas got its only even-strength high-danger chance, and Jonathan Marchessault converted.

Then 42 seconds later, Jamie Benn took an unconscionable five-minute cross-checking major. For a moment, it looked like the Stars might get a crucial penalty kill and even had a scoring chance short-handed. Seconds later, Vegas got its one good chance on the extended power play, and sure enough, the Golden Knights converted. While not an even-strength situation, Ivan Barbashev's goal exemplified how the Golden Knights have put the "danger" in high-danger chances this postseason.

In fairness to Vegas, after a soft goal on an innocuous backhanded shot that was the last straw for Oettinger and his minus-6.02 postseason GSAx, the Golden Knights didn't need to press the Stars late, only getting six shots in the final two periods.

In the first two rounds of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Golden Knights converted even-strength high-danger chances at a seemingly unsustainable 22.4% rate. They haven't just sustained that rate through three games versus Dallas - they've stretched it.

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Golden Knights have converted six of 23 even-strength high-danger chances through three games - a 26% rate. By comparison, here's how three teams fared in this category during the regular season:

• The highest-scoring team in the league: Oilers (11.1%)
• The all-time regular-season wins record-holder: Bruins (12.6%)
• Golden Knights (12.6%)

As we outlined with the Hurricanes and Panthers, the best path in betting on a Stars comeback would be to have the same attitude that the trailing team should have: one game at a time. However, you would be fading a team in Vegas that already has a potentially unprecedented scoring touch going against goaltending that's been, at best, not great. That's without even addressing how the Stars' scoring has gone dry as well.

While the comeback is priced the same in both series, given what we've seen from the Stars, it certainly seems like they have a far worse recipe for a miracle comeback.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Leon Draisaitl scored just shy of a million goals in Round 1, and our theory that Connor McDavid was the only Oiler worth betting for the Conn Smythe Trophy looked like it might have some flaws. Then another round went by and McDavid reeled in his teammate. The problem for McDavid's playoff MVP candidacy? The whole "not getting out of the second round" thing.

While the Oilers duo is no longer under consideration, it exemplifies the importance of allowing for a bigger sample size. Things can change in one series. While McDavid and Draisaitl are among the 75% of playoff participants that have been eliminated, eventual Conn Smythe resumes are only halfway built - and with memories being as short as they are, the most important half is yet to come.

Conn Smythe Trophy odds

Jack Eichel and Sebastian Aho replace McDavid as Conn Smythe co-favorites, representing the leading scorers on each of the slight favorites in their respective conference finals. However, Eichel's 14 points don't put him far enough ahead of double-digit-scoring teammates Mark Stone, Jonathan Marchessault, and Chandler Stephenson, while Aho has just 10 points through two rounds.

We had to wave goodbye to McDavid, but we're still holding out hope for one of Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, or Miro Heiskanen from before the playoffs. Oettinger will have to break a recent habit of getting pulled in order to be the Stars' MVP, but the best goaltender left in the tournament still available at 16-1 isn't bad if you haven't bought a ticket on him yet. Robertson, meanwhile, is seven points back of Roope Hintz for the Stars' leading scorer, but he could make up that gap with a few timely goals.

Most interestingly, the Stars' actual MVP is still 40-1. It's been easy to lose focus on Dallas in the early rounds with late start times and other games on, but anyone paying attention knows that Heiskanen has been the best player on the ice for almost every one of his postseason-high 28 minutes per game. He may need to score to garner more attention from voters, but hopefully those responsible for crowning the playoff's most valuable player are capable of recognizing actual value.

We've seen improved equity on Matthew Tkachuk since the Panthers upset the Maple Leafs. However, with the Golden Knights and Hurricanes just as likely to advance, it's time to add a player from each squad to our portfolio in case they do.

None of the forwards for Carolina and Vegas have stood out, and if that continues to be the case, a defender could improve his chances in the next four weeks, especially playing in front of sketchy goaltending. Brent Burns (+2500) and Alex Pietrangelo (+10000) should find themselves among the top two or three candidates on their own team should they get to the Stanley Cup Final.

Position of Conn Smythe Winner odds

*Odds from theScore Bet

Unlike those Oilers stars, or other headliners from the past, the four remaining teams' scorers aren't separating themselves from their teammates. Meanwhile, even in series victories, goaltenders are getting pulled at an alarming rate. Whether it's individually or as a group, defensemen are being undervalued relative to what they're providing their teams, with a prime contender on each of the remaining clubs. At 10-1, you can throw a blanket on Heiskanen, Burns, Pietrangelo, Brandon Montour, or any dark-horse contender to follow in the footsteps of Cale Makar and Victor Hedman - Conn Smythe-winning defensemen in two of the last three playoffs.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

For as much as Sunday was scary among those of us backing the Oilers, Monday was a fun day. We threaded the needle between the value bet of 'Kraken: +1.5 games' from our Kraken-Stars preview and various positions on the Stars to advance that we started before the playoffs, and built upon that once they went down 0-1.

Now the Golden Knights - a team we faded in failure - take on the Stars, who we pinpointed before the first puck-drop as an under-the-radar contender. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that the Stars are the play, but we still need to reiterate why.

Series odds

The Golden Knights again have home-ice advantage, but unlike Round 2 - where they were series underdogs - they are short favorites to advance to the Stanley Cup Final. These lines suggest that the Stars (45.5% implied win probability) are notably worse than the Oilers (60.8%), which is a concept I just can't agree with. Even if the Oilers were overrated in their pricing, a 14% swing is excessive.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first-round matchup (relative to their opponent).

One of the reasons the implied win probability of the series' odds is hard to get behind is that - relative to their competition - the Stars played better in Round 2 than the Golden Knights. Seattle - an average NHL team this regular season - was outplayed at even-strength at a 60% rate by Dallas, whereas the Golden Knights got by Edmonton despite only generating 46.6% of the expected goals at even-strength.

Advanced metrics at even strength (regular season)

xG%= Expected goals share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

During the regular season, the Stars edged the Golden Knights in three of four of our favorite even-strength advanced metrics. Through two series of playoff hockey, the Stars lead the entire league in expected goal and high-danger chance share.

The Golden Knights' playoff high-danger chance conversion rate of 22% is augmented by scoring on four of just eight such chances in Game 6 against the Oilers. It's unsustainable going forward. Meanwhile, their opponents' HDC conversion rate of 9.5% is a tribute to the goaltending Vegas is getting - but is that sustainable?

Goaltending matchup (goals saved above expected/60 minutes)

In Round 2 - the series where Vegas apparently turned the market's opinion of the team - the Golden Knights got the better goaltending. During that same timeframe, the Stars overcame an opponent that got the better goaltending. Can Adin Hill maintain a GSAx that would make him a lock to win the Vezina Trophy if he sustained that type of play over a full season? Should we expect Jake Oettinger to progress back to a better-than-average goaltender after struggling at times this postseason?

Special teams (regular season)

No matter who you blame, the Golden Knights' outlandish even-strength shooting percentage and ability to stay out of the penalty box allowed them to overcome the Oilers' advantages. However, the Stars are good at both segments of special-teams play, creating an advantage there.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

Even when adding something extra for Vegas' home-ice advantage, I have Dallas as the smallest of favorites. But that only shows itself as a valuable bet from a series perspective if the Stars' moneyline creeps up to +125 before Friday night.

Best bets

If you have a bet on the Stars to win the Western Conference at +600 or better, congratulations. You've made a good bet and need not do much else. Otherwise, Stars (+120) to win the series is an easy bet to make.

When it comes to game-by-game betting, we'll also side with the Stars even at not technically valuable prices. The belief is that two key figures for Dallas will bring up the team's level of play. Oettinger should get back to the regular season version of himself or, at the very least, be a tougher challenge than Stuart Skinner. Meanwhile, the Stars have made it this far with just two goals from leading scorer Jason Robertson. Perhaps the goals will come via the Stars' power play, which should feast similarly to how the Jets and Oilers succeeded against a poor Vegas kill.

Game 1: Stars moneyline (+115)
Series: Stars to win (+120)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Just when you thought excitement for "Carolina" and "Panthers" hit its high point with the first pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, Raleigh's Hurricanes take on Florida's cats for a spot in the Stanley Cup Final.

Carolina has taken a bite out of our account by knocking off the Islanders and Devils, but the Panthers have more than made up for it with a playoff run that we saw some early signs of, leaving us less surprised than we were when their nickname-sake traded up to grab Bryce Young.

Series odds

Oddsmakers think both teams have a better chance of winning this series than they did in the last round. While the Panthers remain underdogs - albeit at shorter and shorter prices, it's easy to forget that Carolina was actually the smallest of underdogs before the puck dropped against the Devils.

Ratings

Using primarily even-strength metrics to evaluate a team's quality, we've established how a team rates relative to an average NHL team. We use these ratings to create an implied win probability split in each game, which we then translate to a fair moneyline price for each before home-ice advantage is applied and the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet. Here's how these teams rated over the season, when isolating play after the All-Star break, and in their first-round matchup (relative to their opponent).

Unsurprisingly, the Hurricanes had a better rating during the regular season - commensurate with winning a highly competitive Metropolitan division. The Panthers graded out far better than mainstream hockey media was giving them credit for, which is why we've been able to find value on Florida in the first two rounds.

Perhaps more interesting is that both teams have managed to win a round without playing their best. The Hurricanes weren't convincingly better than a very average Isles team in Round 1, while the Panthers had just one game (Game 3) where they outpaced the Maple Leafs at even strength.

Advanced metrics at even strength (regular season)

xG%= Expected goals share
HDC%= High-danger chance share
HDCV%= High-danger chance conversion rate
OPP. HDCV%= Opponents' high-danger chance conversion rate

*Average NHL HDCV% = ~12.5%

The Hurricanes spent the season dominating teams at even strength with the type of consistency that accumulates wins and points toward the standings. The Panthers did well to take advantage of their high-danger chances, and their goaltending was good at making big saves but gifted soft goals to their opponents.

Goaltending matchup (goals saved above expected/60 minutes)

"Beware of the hot goalie," they say. Each team's current starter went from very average in the regular season to Vezina-caliber in the playoffs. Of course, neither Sergei Bobrovsky nor Frederik Andersen has started every one of his team's games. Bobrovsky took over starting duties in Game 4 of the first round and has gone 7-2. Andersen has started the last six games for Carolina, losing just once.

How each netminder performs - as this small sample size increases another two weeks - will help decide which team reaches the Stanley Cup Final. Unfortunately, that's just as unpredictable now as it was when the playoffs started with Alex Lyon and Antti Raanta getting the first crack in the crease.

Special teams (regular season)

After losing seven total goals in special teams situations in the first round, the Panthers managed to hold off the Leafs' vaunted power play to gain a one-goal overall edge. The Hurricanes' special teams results have been wildly skewed thanks to three shorthanded goals in an 8-4 loss, and their 18.9% power-play efficiency mirrors their regular season. Even with the Canes' low conversion rate, the Panthers will need to keep increasing a 65.8% postseason kill.

Moneyline betting guide

If you followed our NHL betting guide where we projected moneylines for each game, allowing us to compare and contrast our price to bet with what's available on a daily basis, you may be interested in what prices would be considered valuable for each team when they're on the road, at home, and for the series as a whole.

Price to bet

In the Panthers-Leafs preview, we said Florida could easily be favored in that series, and many probably scoffed. How does that statement look now?

Well, if it was fun to be right about that, it's equally boring that we're not finding much pure value in the prices for various series markets. Maybe it's because the Hurricanes don't have the same attractive branding as the Bruins or Maple Leafs, or maybe the market has caught on to how dangerous Florida is, but the odds reflect newfound respect for the Panthers.

Best bets

After a predictably tight first-round series, things got looser in Carolina's games with New Jersey, while the Panthers relied on Bobrovksy to keep the goal totals down against Toronto. I'm not sure that either team's goaltender can keep up their GSAx numbers, and 5.5 might not be high enough of a total for each game.

As for the series, the Panthers at +120 is my exact fair price for them to win the series, but I'd rather go elsewhere to back Florida, knowing that I'm at least getting a fair price on their derivatives. At -170, Florida +1.5 games is that bet, as I expect a long series, and maybe the worst-case scenario is that the Panthers need a home win in Game 6 - where they'll be the favorites - to push it to a ticket-clinching seventh game.

Game 1: Over 5.5 goals (-120)
Series: Panthers +1.5 games (-170)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Even though, statistically, Game 3s have been studied to be more critical to a team's overall win probability of a series, it's hard not to believe that a Game 4 - where a team can either draw even, go down 3-1, or go home - isn't the most pivotal of the first four games in a best-of-seven.

With a big chunk of data built up through four games, let's take a look at each series to see if there's anything worth playing in the in-series betting markets.

Series: Devils (+500) vs. Hurricanes (-700)

Even-strength numbers

Normally, I try to take the Hurricanes' constant domination in even-strength expected goals with a grain of salt, as their high-danger chance numbers don't always match what their puck pressure creates in the analytics. However, whether it's having watched the four games or acknowledging that 20 of the Devils' 45 high-danger chances in this series came as part of their one big effort in Game 3, predicting New Jersey to take three straight games would seem foolhardy.

There's a bigger issue afoot for the Devils, and that's between the pipes. Vitek Vanecek's goals saved above expected is the worst in these playoffs by a mile at -8.08, behind Andrei Vasilevskiy's surprisingly bad -3.69 in the first round. Akira Schmid has actually stopped around a half-goal above expected per goal, but Lindy Ruff made him the scapegoat for the first two games in Carolina and might now be out of confident options.

Series: Kraken (+170) vs. Stars (-210)

Even-strength numbers

Our stance for this series has long been, "The Stars, but not at these prices," and only diverted from that twice: after they lost Game 1, and when the Stars were being priced at a discount prior to confirmation that Miro Heiskanen would be OK to play in Game 4.

The Stars are driving the even-strength play at about a 56% rate, and it could be argued that outside of two very unusual segments in this series - four Kraken goals in four minutes of Game 1 and four more goals in six minutes after Heiskanen was maimed in Game 3 - Dallas has been the vastly superior team. However, laying more than 2-to-1 odds for Dallas to finally vanquish the Kraken should be left for those who didn't make a bet after Game 1 and are without futures positions on the Stars and their best Conn Smythe candidates.

Series: Panthers (-425) vs. Maple Leafs (+325)

Even-strength numbers

They needed the help of a referee shin pad, a post, and the back of Sergei Bobrovsky's head, but the Maple Leafs kept hope alive of pulling off a fifth 0-3 comeback in a Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

After Game 3, the Leafs were still in the neighborhood of just +700 to win what amounts to four straight coin flips - if you adhere to the largely even on-ice metrics. As you might assume, that was a less advantageous payout versus just rolling over Toronto moneylines, but either option seemed too short for something that has historically happened around 2% of the time. After Toronto found its first of four required wins Wednesday, +325 isn't enough to bet on three more.

Series: Oilers (-165) vs. Golden Knights (+140)

Even-strength numbers

We were getting to the point where the Oilers, their fans, and their backers probably had flashbacks to years past when goaltending - or a lack thereof - undermined whatever five-on-five advantage they had. Instead of leaving it up to Stuart Skinner, Edmonton strangled the Golden Knights defensively in Game 4 with just 0.86 expected goals against. The Oilers also generated six power plays - unlike in Game 3 where it took them 36 minutes to get one.

Edmonton is -130 on the moneyline to take Game 5 in Vegas, and the impending suspension of Alex Pietrangelo, who leads Vegas in ice time, changes the calculus for the series. A series price of -165 suggests Edmonton needs to win the series 62.3% of the time, and if you haven't been adding Oilers bets before the series, or when they've trailed, you can still back Connor McDavid and Co. at a decent price.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.