Booking a marginal loss Thursday was the best-case scenario given that none of our five teams scored first. That can be an arduous watch. However, if you were on the other side, with five 1-0 leads, you'd also be annoyed if you only won three of those games. Welcome to hockey betting, where Chris Kreider can tap a goal home with his skate as long as he doesn't cock his foot back like David Beckham.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 6

Flames (-120) @ Flyers (+100)

The Flames can be found for our target moneyline price with some line shopping. But even at -120, Calgary is worth a bet in a game between two teams that appear to be headed in different directions. The Flyers have lost six of their last seven games and have the fourth-worst xG% in that time at 43% despite getting above-average goaltending from Carter Hart and Samuel Ersson.

The Flames have won six of eight despite Calgary generating below-average high-danger chances at even strength. If the Flyers continue to allow more high-danger chances than they create, the Flames should ride Jacob Markstrom - quietly second in the league in GSAx - to a road win.

Pick: Flames (-120)

Sabres (+150) @ Penguins (-175)

The Sabres and Penguins have picked up the pace since before the Christmas break, as only the Stars and Panthers have a better xG%. Pittsburgh's seen results, going 6-2 in its last eight games, but Buffalo's better play hasn't translated yet in that same span as the team is 3-3.

After taking a while to get back in the flow of things following a three-week absence, Tage Thompson's gone from four points in his first eight games to a stretch of eight in his last six.

Neither team has received standout goaltending this year, making this matchup more of a toss-up than the odds suggest. So, we'd much rather take the +150 than have to lay -175.

Pick: Sabres moneyline (+150)

Canucks (+100) @ Devils (-120)

I've downgraded the Devils without Dougie Hamilton and even more without Timo Meier. However, New Jersey has fared well without its biggest minutes-eating defenseman, winning five of its last six.

The Devils are on the second game of a back-to-back, which is accounted for in our target price. But they're expected to start Nico Daws, who's won both his starts since taking over the backup role.

We faded the Canucks on Thursday on the premise that their metrics are propped up by their success at home. That loss to the Blues was a high-event game, something you don't want to get into with the Devils. The Canucks found that out for themselves earlier this season when they lost to New Jersey 6-5 in Vancouver.

Pick: Devils (-120)

Wild (-125) @ Blue Jackets (+105)

Projecting how much to downgrade a team with a missing player is an inexact science. But in two of the three games without Kirill Kaprizov, the Wild generated just four high-danger chances at even strength. In the other, they converted just one of 13 high-danger chances. Minnesota lost all three, so maybe Kaprizov is worth more to the Wild's win probability than the market's accounted for.

Columbus is never a fun bet, but at least the team is expected to get Elvis Merzlikins - its best goaltending option - back after he missed some time with an illness. It's a nice landing spot at home against the Wild without their point-per-game scorer.

Pick: Blue Jackets (+105)

Sunday cheat sheet

With just four games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet on Sunday.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The 'dogs didn't bark for us on Tuesday. The Sharks were probably the better team in their matchup with the Red Wings, but a 2-2 game became 4-2 late, costing us a small winning night.

Meanwhile, the Canadiens and Maple Leafs - both showing value on paper - pulled off upsets that didn't make the cut for the best of the night, mainly because the idea of Montreal winning in Dallas and Toronto starting their (often tumultuous) California trip with a win against one of the league's best teams seemed far-fetched, even at a valuable price.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 4

Blackhawks (+355) @ Rangers (-450)

We're not about to lay -400 in an NHL game, but we're not asking the Blackhawks to beat the Rangers at Madison Square Garden.

Our numbers give Chicago a 28.6% chance to win, and their +355 moneyline implies a 22% chance of winning. That 6.6% edge means it's a play worth making long-term, but it also means there's an edge in other head-to-head markets like the puck line.

I'm not a fan of betting +1.5 puck lines since the premise is that I expect it to be a one-goal game late and, even if we're right, we're leaving ourselves open to an empty-netter. However, with odds rooted in a moneyline this long, we can get +2.5 for just -135. I prefer to find the middle ground, backing the Blackhawks at a plus-money price - a number that acts as insurance if the Rangers score into a yawning cage in the dying seconds.

Pick: Blackhawks puck line (+2, +105)

Canucks (-145) @ Blues (+125)

Whether it's evidenced by an advanced metric like expected goals share (xG%) or their record, the Canucks are a visibly better team at home than on the road. Vancouver starts its longest trip of the season in St. Louis, where the Blues have a 5-3 record since firing head coach Craig Berube.

The Blues have boosted their xG% from below 45% to above 48% but have been somewhat unlucky in high-danger chance conversion rates since switching coaches.

By making them a considerable road favorite, the market's treating the Canucks like a team that creates more than 50% of the expected goals and high-danger chances when they hover right around the league average in both.

Pick: Blues moneyline (+125)

Lightning (-128) @ Wild (+110)

We successfully faded the Lightning on Tuesday, questioning their rating without Mikhail Sergachev and wondering if Andrei Vasilevskiy was in form. Vasilevskiy was far better than the numbers suggest in Tampa's 4-2 loss, but the Lightning appeared to wear down late - potentially a function of playing five defensemen with Sergachev out of the lineup.

Tampa's next stop is Minnesota. The Wild have hit the skids, losing three of four games following a nice run after they, too, fired their head coach. They've missed Kirill Kaprizov, but their rating in betting markets has reflected his absence. Meanwhile, the Lightning's rating hasn't taken much of a hit without Sergachev and Erik Cernak (who's questionable to play Thursday), which means there's value in picking the Wild.

Pick: Wild (+110)

Islanders (-115) @ Coyotes (-105)

Sure, goaltender Karel Vejmelka stopped 35 shots and the Coyotes were tied 1-1 with the red-hot Panthers in the third period. But we thought we were getting Connor Ingram on Tuesday since the Yotes hadn't played in a while.

Since Arizona stuck to its rotation, we should get Ingram Thursday night against a far less intimidating opponent in the Islanders. While we're not getting the Coyotes as underdogs, a pick'em price is good enough for a team we think wins at least 54% of the time.

Pick: Coyotes (-105)

Panthers (-115) @ Golden Knights (-105)

In this case, a regular season matchup against the team that beat you in the Stanley Cup Final can certainly be categorized as a revenge-seeking game.

With five straight wins, the now-healthy Panthers are cooking. They're returning to Las Vegas where Shea Theodore and Adin Hill aren't available to torment them as they did in June. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights are 2-6 in their last eight games and are also playing without William Karlsson. All these elements aren't accounted for in the market, with this game lined at nearly a pick'em.

Pick: Panthers (-115)

Friday cheat sheet

With just three games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet them on Friday.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Nobody likes change. It's scary.

So I can understand some trepidation as our No. 1 hockey handicapper, Todd Cordell, takes a brief hiatus to welcome a sizable change in his life, and you're left with me to guide the way through much of January for our daily best bets in the NHL.

Using the information we usually publish in our weekly betting guide, the change you'll notice here is a penchant for grimy underdogs and, sadly, no shots-on-goal props. But at least Todd's short-term replacement won't be sleep-deprived and covered in vomit. Probably.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 2

Bruins (-225) @ Blue Jackets (+190)

Our target price for the Blue Jackets is considerably lower than a nearly 2-1 moneyline on the home underdog. So there's just shy of a 9% edge on a Columbus team that's come out of Christmas break competitive, forcing overtime in all three games against decent competition (at Devils, vs. Maple Leafs, at Sabres).

Admittedly, the Blue Jackets' even-strength metrics haven't been good, but some regression could be in order. More interestingly, the Bruins have an expected goals share (xG%) and high-danger chance share below 50% in their three wins since Christmas and could be vulnerable.

Pick: Blue Jackets (+190)

Lightning (+115) @ Jets (-135)

The Jets barely qualify as a valuable favorite, but that's enough to back Winnipeg. The Jets have emerged from Christmas break with the league's best xG% despite an OT loss to the Blackhawks. Their success at driving play shows that life with Kyle Connor isn't so bad.

The Lightning have had to deal with the absence of Mikhail Sergachev, and their lone win during a three-game homestand came by one goal over the Canadiens. At just 41% in expected goals share, with Andrei Vasilevskiy (.900 save percentage, 2.94 goals-against average) playing beneath his standard midseason form, the Jets should keep rolling.

Pick: Jets (-135)

Panthers (-165) @ Coyotes (+140)

Don't look now, but the Coyotes - a team with tempered expectations entering the season - have won six of seven around the holiday break, with a 4-1 road loss to the Avalanche a lone blemish there's no need to be ashamed of.

Arizona's 12-5 at home this season, while the Panthers haven't left Florida since Dec. 18 - a five-game trip that saw them lose convincingly to Seattle, Vancouver and Calgary.

Connor Ingram boasts the eighth-best GSAx this season and should be well-rested coming off a shutout of the Ducks last Friday. I was hoping to get +120 with the home underdog, and the moneyline is juicier than that.

Pick: Coyotes (+140)

Red Wings (-175) @ Sharks (+150)

You were warned that there'd be some uncomfortable plays on our ticket for the next few weeks, and the Sharks always qualify.

This bet, however, is more about the Red Wings, who probably don't warrant being a -175 road favorite against any NHL team. Detroit's allowed 13 goals in three games since the Christmas break and 18 in the four games going into the holiday, so we might get the version of the Sharks that couldn't stop scoring in early December.

A trio of Kings-Oilers-Avalanche out of the break was rough for San Jose, but their even-strength metrics in those three games aren't any worse than Detroit's:

When the Sharks have played a mediocre-to-bad team at home (Penguins, Flyers, Blues, Canadiens, Capitals, Coyotes), they're 3-3.

All signs point to a 50-50 contest, and we're getting a 60-40 price.

Pick: Sharks (+150)

Wednesday cheat sheet

With just two games on the board, here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet on Wednesday's doubleheader.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Whether it's at the end of the regular season or during some obvious break in the schedule, you'll hear about the most, and least, profitable teams in a given league. But it's largely irrelevant.

What is worth a quick investigation - during this hiatus in the hockey season - is how the best and worst teams in the NHL have done for their bettors, who were either willing to lay a price to back the good teams or were able to hold their nose and bet on the bad ones.

We were given a hint before the season as to who would be good this season. The Hurricanes, Devils, Avalanche, and Maple Leafs were all expected to push for more than 106 points, or 1.3 points per game, in the standings.

We were also given a hint as to who might be bad this season. The Blackhawks, Ducks, and Sharks were lined at 71 points or worse (0.86 points per game).

Here's how blindly betting on those six teams has fared this season.

Why is hockey so difficult to bet on? Blindly betting on both the good and bad teams can be a losing proposition.

With a high rating coming into the season, the Avalanche have needed to win 62% of their games to be marginally profitable.

At the other end, getting big underdog moneyline prices on the low-rated teams hasn't guaranteed profits, either.

The Sharks lost their first 11 games, making them profitable at +7.1 units since a disastrous start. What's even wilder is that, before heading into the Christmas break with a five-game losing streak, San Jose had an 18-game stretch of winning 12.1 units for their bettors.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Last week, we discussed the market movers - up and down - over the first quarter of the NHL season. The Oilers weren't on that list because there was a nightly expectation that a turnaround was imminent, and oddsmakers weren't about to give you a deal betting on Connor McDavid. Their overarching hypothesis was due to Edmonton's even-strength expected goal share (XG%), which is among the best in the NHL and was still among the best even when the Oilers weren't winning. Knowing that metric was in Edmonton's favor didn't make it any easier to lay the high moneyline prices during its current seven-game win streak.

Are there other under-the-radar teams - from both our "movin' up" and "fallin' down" lists - ripe for a turnaround?

With their market valuation change in parentheses, let's examine those clubs and explore their even-strength expected goal share and high-danger chance conversion rate to see if the market's love is warranted.

The Rangers, Bruins, and Canucks have seen the biggest valuation increase, but all have around a 50-50 expected goal share at even strength. The difference between New York and Boston versus Vancouver is that the Canucks weren't expected to be above average. The Rangers and Bruins could be ripe for a consistent fade as favorites.

The expectations for the Flyers were even lower than the Canucks. But with a 53% expected goal share, Philadelphia's rating bump is as warranted as the Panthers, who are third in the NHL in XG%. Those two and Arizona should be considered bet-on teams based on quality even-strength numbers. Florida's high-danger chance conversion rate is well above the league average of 12.7%. However, teams with more talent should be expected to convert at an above-average rate.

Other than their 4-7 moneyline record over a tough stretch of their schedule, souring on the Stars makes little sense. Of the other clubs that have seen their valuation drop, only the Penguins and Wild have played above average at even strength, with Minnesota seeing better results since a coaching change.

Be careful of the Lightning, Kraken, and Canadiens, as they're surviving on high-conversion rates to offset getting outplayed. At least Tampa can boast the scoring talent to keep its conversion rate up and have a future Hall of Famer returning in goal.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

An NHL head coach getting fired is barely news.

It's not that coaching isn't important. In the short term, whether a hockey team is willing to do the correct things on the ice might be decided by how the players feel about their head coach. Usually, that comes out of fear or respect. Either way, it stems from the belief that if the team plays the right way, they can win the Stanley Cup.

The Oilers have been a hot topic of conversation in this space because of Connor McDavid's injury, Edmonton's shoddy goaltending, and now because they fired Jay Woodcroft this past weekend, replacing him with Kris Knoblauch. By my count, he's the 142nd different full-time NHL head coach since 2001, per Hockey Reference.

That number doesn't include retreads, with some of the best going behind the bench for a handful of teams:

When a coach gets fired, is it a panic move, and should the betting market react?

There have been over 200 head coaching changes in just over 20 years. Ken Hitchcock was just inducted into the Hall of Fame, and a handful of the above will eventually join him. Yet, in many cases, their teams were content to move on.

It took 12 years for a team to recognize that Bruce Cassidy was worth a second chance. He was then fired for a lack of playoff success with the Bruins before winning the Stanley Cup the following season while leading the Golden Knights. Cassidy's replacement won the Jack Adams Award as the NHL Coach of the Year, but the Bruins lost in the first round of the playoffs.

While important, NHL head coaches are largely replaceable. By comparison, the NFL has had 124 head coaching changes since 2001. Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll, and John Harbaugh have all been in their respective positions longer than any current NHL head coach.

The issue might be that there are too many capable hockey coaches. Cassidy spent eight years with the Bruins' AHL affiliate, and no one saw enough to hire him away. The NHL's long-term, one-team coaches - Jon Cooper and Jared Bednar - came from the AHL as well.

Will Knoblauch be the next Cooper or Bednar - put into a position to thrive with top-tier talent - or will he flame out? Time will tell, but with so many qualified candidates for the 32 jobs, it's not a big deal to give another coach a chance to see if their voice will resonate, and the betting market reflects that with little change to a team's rating.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

If you've been riding our cheat sheet to closing line value glory (and various degrees of betting success), you probably saw that the conceptual target price for the Oilers in Vancouver on Monday night was -120. Edmonton opened there, but it was the Canucks that got bet to the point where the Oilers could've been had at -110.

Compare this to Oct. 11 - the opener for both teams - where the Oilers were -160 to beat the Canucks at Rogers Arena. That's an implied win probability drop from 61.5% to 52.4%. The Canucks trucked the Oilers in both games, which is only tangential to the point.

Searching for value based on power ratings is always only a starting point. This early in the season, a high percentage of that -120 target price is based on prior ratings from before the season.

Luckily, we get to make our own decisions about what to bet. We're through roughly 13% of the NHL season, and no team rated on the same echelon as the Oilers has disappointed as Edmonton has, even though its advanced metrics are promising, with the second-best even-strength expected goals share and the third-best high-danger chance share.

The Oilers' issue is the inverse of what's made the Canucks so impressive, and that's goaltending.

Thatcher Demko leads the NHL with 15.01 goals saved above expectation, over five goals ahead of second-place Jeremy Swayman.

On Monday night, the Canucks allowed nine even-strength high-danger chances and had only eight of their own - numbers that are right at the league average. However, Vancouver scored on four, while Demko didn't allow any of those opportunities to beat him.

It's a long season, but so far, the Canucks are converting 17% of their even-strength HDCs, and the Oilers just 9.4%. The league average is 13%, and there's nothing different with Edmonton's personnel that would suggest that wouldn't even out, and the Canucks are clearly on a heater. However, knowing what we do about the personnel between the pipes, there's the element where a statistical regression shouldn't necessarily be expected.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Weird things can happen through three weeks at the start of any NHL season. Considering an entire campaign can go by - thanks to points assigned for regulation ties - without the legitimate value of a team shining through, it shouldn't surprise that October's not a big enough sample size to make sweeping judgments on a team or player.

Let's look at five statistical outliers with a betting implication going forward.

1) Vegas 9-1 with below-average even-strength metrics

There are high expectations for the defending Stanley Cup champions, so a 9-1 record on the moneyline isn't unheard of. The Golden Knights' lone loss came as -300 favorites, and betting on them every game would have earned you six units. The surprise is Vegas has played below average at even strength, controlling 49.48% of the high-danger chances and barely above 50% of the expected goal share (XG%).

2) Colorado converts 3 of 81 high-danger chances at even strength

The 6-0 start for the Avalanche was impressive. However, it's a pretty wild beginning considering Colorado has struggled early to capitalize on its best scoring opportunities after converting even-strength high-danger chances at a 13.5% rate last season. Now clicking 3.7% of the time, the Avalanche's slumping scorers have caught up to them with back-to-back shutout losses. That should turn, and Colorado will be even more dangerous with the puck finding the twine toward a league-average rate.

3) Philadelphia flies in rare air

With a regular season point total of 75.5 in the betting market, the Flyers were rated 27th in the NHL. Through nine games, Philadelphia has a 55.6% even-strength XG%. The four teams above the Flyers (Avalanche, Oilers, Stars, Kings) and the four clubs below them (Maple Leafs, Bruins, Devils, Panthers) were all rated as Stanley Cup contenders. It's early, but Philadelphia appears better than their 4-5 moneyline record suggests.

4) Penguins, Oilers battle for lead in even-strength high-danger chances

For all the concern about the scoring depth on the Penguins, their 100 high-danger chances at even strength are one short of the Oilers' league-leading total. Despite the teams owning an above-average XG% and boasting big names like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin, the clubs are a combined 5-12 on the moneyline. Conversion rates should even out, but both teams could use better goaltending.

5) Sharks are rare blacklisted NHL team

There's usually a price any team can be bet. However, with the Sharks allowing 119 high-danger chances at even strength (by far the most in the league) and a woeful 3-for-72 conversion clip of their own, the team rated the worst in the NHL before the season is somehow even worse than expected. Bettors would be better served leaving San Jose alone when searching for valuable underdogs.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We created the 4% Club last February after culling over moneyline prices for all the games to that point. The group featured players the betting market seemed to believe mattered to their team's win probability on a given night because the club's baseline win probability changed by 4% or more when they missed a game.

As we know, the moneyline is a function of probability. A +100 moneyline means a team is 50-50 to win (before vig is applied to each side). A -150 moneyline means a team needs to win the game 60% of the time to break even. That's a big difference in pricing, but it's only a 10% change in win probability.

We made 4% the cutoff to get into the club because that number is high enough to create a bet if one of those players was out. We'll have the 2024 edition of this group later this season, but here's a bet we wish we could make - Connor McDavid, the reigning MVP, will be in the club.

McDavid played all 82 games last season, so we couldn't compare the Oilers' team rating with him in the lineup to how the market changes the squad's rating without him. Given his singular greatness - as the runaway winner for a handful of awards - we fairly assumed McDavid would also be the MVP to the betting line, assigning him a 10% valuation. It took less than two weeks into the 2023-24 campaign for us to get at least a chance to have that question answered, as McDavid will miss time with an upper-body injury.

The Oilers travel to Minnesota without McDavid on Tuesday, and our rating for each team would give the Oilers a win probability of 52%. You'd likely be required to pay around -120 to bet on Edmonton. Instead, at the time of this writing, the Oilers are +100. That's a 5% adjustment for McDavid's absence.

If you think that's all McDavid's worth to the Oilers' win probability, there's no bet to be made. But if the three-time Hart Trophy winner is a bigger deal than that, the Wild would be worth a play as a short favorite.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Like any other sport, the second week of the season gives you two options for how to view each team in the context of betting:

• Bet on the market's overreaction to a team's start - good or bad
• Bet that the market hasn't reacted to how a team has played

Below, we provide the prices to bet each team, but what if those prices aren't far off from what's available? That means oddsmakers have continued to tie their team ratings to priors from before the season.

The two-to-three-game sample size is too small, but it's worth knowing who's excelling in our key even-strength metrics (expected goals share, high-danger chance share) because you want to be ahead of the market in sports betting.

If you wait, by the time you're ready to believe in a specific team, the market will likely have caught up to adjust their rating, and their moneyline prices will no longer be particularly valuable. It's too early to claim each team as a matter of fact, but it's worth asking the question.

Are they underrated?

Each of these teams has outplayed their rating early this season, with either dominant five-on-five play or, in the case of the Coyotes and Canadiens, better-than-average even-strength play for a team expected to be poor. Interestingly, these teams have combined for just an 8-7 record. It's a nice combination of early-season profitability, while none of them have been so good as to have the market drastically change its opinion of them.

Are they overrated?

The Capitals weren't expected to be good, but their five-on-five metrics are terrible. They won in a shootout on Monday, which might mask a bad team going forward. Outside of a dominant first period and good power-play conversion rates in the season opener, the Lightning have struggled.

This group has gone 8-6 to start the season, only profitable because of the underdog prices cashed with the Canucks' two wins over the Oilers. However, with these underlying numbers, it's possible they took advantage of Edmonton's goaltending, which is more than a little questionable.

The Hurricanes and Devils have lingered around mediocrity in their even-strength metrics, but as the top two teams in the regular-season win total market, much more was expected from them.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the impact a player has on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2023 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.