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The weekend NHL betting guide returns with a question: "What's going on with the Canucks?"

Vancouver has been the biggest surprise this season from a betting perspective, as its market rating got cranked up within a few weeks.

Before the season, the market assigned the Canucks an expectation of 89 regular-season points - a number that would have them on the outside looking into the playoffs and rated them marginally below average. By the All-Star break, they were considered 15% better than an average team.

As March begins, Vancouver is headed toward comfortably cashing tickets on the over for regular-season point totals. However, the Canucks' first 50-plus games have altered the hope threshold in the Lower Mainland. With a 10-point lead in the division, no one should be freaking out in the dressing room like Will Ferrell's character did in the movie "Old School." However, when projecting forward into the playoffs, we should look at how they've played recently compared to those first 55 games.

Let's evaluate their expected goals share (xG%), high-danger chance share (HDC%), high-danger conversion rate at even strength (HDCV%), and power play:

The Canucks' xG% hasn't changed significantly, and they've been even better than their opponents at generating high-danger chances. However, the scorers have gone from being able to convert those high-danger looks at a rate well above league-average (12.5%) to well below. When people talk about regression due to sample size, this is what they mean.

The Canucks are a talented enough group that they should convert more than 12.5% of their even-strength HDC, and even with this recent downturn, they're still clicking at 15.9% for the season.

With 42 power-play goals in the first 55 games, they were averaging a goal with the man advantage in 76.4% of their games. More recently, they've added a goal in 57.1% of those seven contests. Meanwhile, their opponents have nine power-play goals in that stretch.

Using their early metrics, which we saw as a shade above 50%, the Canucks weren't the best team in the NHL despite the standings points rolling in. High conversion rates on one end, combined with great goaltending, always mask any deficiencies. Thatcher Demko provided 25.83 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), and even backup Casey DeSmith was above average at 3.27 in limited work.

However, in the last seven games, Demko has a GSAx of -3.63, and DeSmith's lone start in Minnesota was a borderline disaster (-4.25 GSAx).

While it might seem complicated for those who aren't as comfortable with the numbers, it's rather simple. For the Canucks to be successful come playoff time, their high-end talent has to score at an above-average rate, and - surprise - you need good-to-great goaltending. Neither of those has happened in this seven-game stretch, but the sample size isn't big enough for anyone in B.C. to lose their composure.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

"It's Friday, and all I want to do is dance, dance, dance." - Craig Kilborn, "The Late Late Show" (1999-2004).

The "SportsCenter" host turned late-night entertainer used to send viewers into the weekend at peak vibes. Twenty years later, all anybody in this space wants to do amidst the dog days of February in the NHL is bet, bet, bet.

Thursday's results opened up the opportunity for a handful of wagers worth making (at widely available prices) in the futures market before the stretch run of the season.

Division winner

Metropolitan Division: Hurricanes (+150)

The even-strength metrics love the Hurricanes. Surprise!

Carolina is one of three teams with a better than 55% rate of expected goals and high-danger chance share at even strength. Meanwhile, the Rangers add up to a league-average team by those two metrics.

What's bought the Blueshirts a lead in the Metropolitan Division has been Jonathan Quick's resurgence, saving a season in which Igor Shesterkin has struggled. The Rangers' incumbent hasn't shown much improvement in the new year, with a GSAx of minus-5.37 in 2024, and I'm willing to bet against the Rangers shifting more starts Quick's way and have that work out well.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes need only slightly better-than-average goaltending to kick their results into high gear. That's exactly what they've gotten recently, losing just four times in regulation since Jan. 1, including an epic shutout performance by Pyotr Kochetkov against the Panthers on Thursday.

To make playoffs

Red Wings: No (+200)

Here are the worst teams in expected goals share this year:

• 32. Blackhawks (40.6%)
• 31. Sharks (42%)
• 30. Red Wings (45.5%)

Alex Lyon and James Reimer have combined to save 10-plus goals above expected, which is even more surprising than the Red Wings sitting in a playoff spot with those even-strength metrics. Throw in an unsustainable 15.3% high-danger conversion rate, and Detroit could get overtaken by either the Devils or Islanders - two teams that should be primed for a good closing kick.

Wild: Yes (+400)

While there's no glaringly valuable team on the outside looking in to make the playoffs in the East, the Wild (available for as long as +400) are an easy pick to usurp the Blues for the West's final playoff spot. This also acts as a fade of the Predators, who don't have the goaltending or scoring efficiency to warrant odds shorter than +200.

Regular-season point totals

Blues: Under 88.5 (-130)

The team right behind the Red Wings for fourth-worst in XG% at even strength is the Blues. And they're even worse at preventing high-danger chances (third-most allowed).

Jordan Binnington (plus-17.87 GSAx) can't stand on his head forever. And when he goes back to his pre-New Year's Day level (plus-1.21 GSAx), St. Louis will fall off this prescribed pace, back to the mid-80s - where it was projected before the season. So little is expected from the Blues that they won on Thursday, and their regular-season point total came down from 89.5 to 88.5.

Kings: Over 100.5 (-115)

Speaking of preseason projections, the Kings are back to theirs at 100.5. Amazingly, a 2-14 stretch didn't derail their season, and their metrics haven't wavered. Ten of their final 27 games are against teams currently in a playoff spot, so 35 points out of 54 available is very doable. If L.A. gets super-hot, 14 points back, with four games against the Canucks and four more in hand, a Pacific Division run isn't out of the question, especially at +1800.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Juuse Saros isn't good anymore.

OK, that's an attention-grabbing statement made to accentuate a point: Bettors shouldn't rely on him for anything special. If you think we're picking on a frequent Vezina Trophy contender, the same could also be said about 2022 Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin. Looking at the stats, advanced and otherwise - both goaltenders have had disappointing seasons.

OK, so it's not that Saros and Shesterkin aren't good anymore. However, coming into the season, the expectation was that each goaltender mattered to the moneyline. When they didn't play, there would need to be an adjustment to the Predators' and Rangers' rating in the betting market.

However, with goals saved above expected (GSAx) numbers of a replacement-level NHL goaltender, neither has warranted that type of regard.

The Rangers' presumptive backup goaltender, Jonathan Quick, has found a second act for his career (0.65 GSAx/60). Not only is a Shesterkin start no longer an advantage, but New York has been better off with Quick.

The picture in Nashville's crease is less complicated, but that's a bad thing. Predators backup goalie Kevin Lankinen (and his -0.31 GSAx) is replacement-level at best. Unlike Quick, Lankinen hasn't skated through the opening Saros has provided for him to take over the No. 1 job.

With better-than-average goaltending for most of Quick's 20 games, the Rangers are in first place in the Atlantic Division and hold a rating in the betting market of 10% above an average team. Meanwhile, the Predators (with their average goaltending) rate as league average and sit just outside a wild-card spot.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The NHL got a little more interesting with Connor Bedard's return on Thursday night against the Penguins, but should his presence matter to bettors?

Given that he played just four shifts before breaking his jaw on Jan. 5 in New Jersey, Bedard essentially missed 15 of Chicago's 53 games. However, he continues to lead the team with 33 points and remains the Calder Trophy favorite.

It's unusual, but the future of the Blackhawks is also the present. The betting market docked Chicago around 10% in implied win probability (IWP) without Bedard. For example, in a game where they have a 40% chance to win (+150 on the moneyline) with Bedard, the Blackhawks might be given a 30% implied win probability (+233) without him.

On Wednesday night, 24 hours ahead of the Penguins-Blackhawks game, Chicago was widely available at +185 (35% IWP). After the return of Bedard was made official on Thursday afternoon, the Blackhawks' moneyline settled at +160 (38.5%). That 3.5% move could be considered surprisingly modest, but there's a difference between losing Bedard's production amidst a stellar rookie campaign and getting him back for his first action in six weeks. Expectations that he wouldn't be in midseason form were understandable, and oddsmakers likely opened the Blackhawks a few percentage points short, aware that they might see some money on the home underdog once it was confirmed Bedard was back.

Of course, bettors can only get so excited about the Blackhawks - with or without Bedard.

With a 3-12 (20%) record on the moneyline and only one regulation win in Bedard's absence, the 10% change in valuation we mentioned earlier might be considered too low. However, it's not like the Blackhawks set the world on fire before Bedard got hurt. They won just 28.9% of their games (11-27 on the moneyline). A drop in win percentage of 8.9% suggests that valuation was about right.

Here's a look at the Blackhawks' advanced metrics at even strength before Bedard's injury, and then in the 15 games they played without him:

The Blackhawks maintained their (poor) expected goals share (XG%) and improved their high-danger chance share (HDC%). But without Bedard, their ratio of converting those quality chances went way down.

The league average in converting high-danger chances is 12.5%, so Bedard's presence makes Chicago better than average at converting scoring chances. His absence was felt on the power play, as the Hawks went from converting 14.1% of their HDC on the man-advantage to scoring just twice on 28 HDC created without Bedard.

For bettors, the question of whether we should be more interested in backing the Blackhawks now that Bedard is back is an interesting one. According to Moneypuck.com, Bedard leads Chicago in XG per 60 minutes at even strength, but he's only tied for 77th (with Connor McDavid at 0.87) in the NHL. Ideally, we'd like to see him have more of an effect on driving play in general, even if we know his sniper skills make the Hawks more dangerous when he's on the ice.

While the star rookie chipped in an assist in Thursday's 4-1 loss, his presence meant little overall. Pittsburgh generated 65% of the expected goal share at even strength and had significantly more high-danger chances than Chicago.

The Blackhawks may be better with Bedard, but unless you're getting an unbelievable price on Chicago, you're still better off leaving them off your card on a nightly basis.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

*Eight of 10 games on Monday start at or before 4 p.m., providing matinee action for those observing a holiday

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

During the extended period when the Devils were without Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton, oddsmakers downgraded New Jersey 7%-10% in their overall power rating. Coming into the campaign, with a regular-season point total of 107 in betting markets, the Devils' power rating was second in the league, estimating a fully healthy roster as 17% above a league-average team.

The market adjusted upon Hughes's return against the Flames, giving the Devils back 4% of their implied win probability, making them -135 at home in the game. Getting Hughes back may have helped their implied win probability, but nothing guarantees victory, as they lost 5-3 to Calgary, then lost 1-0 in overtime in Carolina as an underdog Saturday.

Hughes is the best player to recently return to his team after missing a large segment of the season. Nathan MacKinnon is questionable Tuesday with a facial injury suffered Saturday. It would be his first game missed this season. He sat out 18 games last season, and the market adjusted, lowering the Avalanche's likelihood of winning between 5% and 10%.

Morgan Rielly is headed for an in-person meeting after an incident in Ottawa on Saturday. That implies a significant suspension is coming, so we'll get a decent sample size of the market's reaction to the Maple Leafs' chances without their best defenseman among an already thin group.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We made it past the true midway point of the season weeks ago. But with just a handful of games remaining before NHL All-Star Weekend and the break that comes with it, let's take this dip in action to look at how the betting market feels about every team. For comparison, we did a similar exercise in early December.

Since moneylines are a function of win probability, each team's rating is based on how much better (plus) or worse (minus) it is than an average team on neutral ice. For example, if your favorite club flies to Sweden and is -150 (60% likely) to beat a league-average (zero) team like the Predators, the betting market has deemed your club 20% better than average.

Below is an estimation of how the betting market rates each team based on recent moneylines before factoring injuries to players who matter to its win probability.

NHL betting market power ratings

We included a team's preseason market rating - based on its regular season point total before the season started. Like a stock, every team has a valuation, so we also note how much the valuation has changed since before the campaign.

The Blackhawks (Connor Bedard), Devils (Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes), and Golden Knights (Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel, William Karlsson) have suffered injuries to key players, which drops their current rating between 5% and 10%. Their above rating - and any other team with a more recent significant injury - is based on their status when healthy.

Despite a rough start, the Oilers have always been rated as a top team. They've certainly verified that with a huge win streak.

The Canucks and Jets continue to be the league's pleasant surprises. However, the most interesting dichotomy is the Red Wings' rating drop considering they're contending for a playoff spot.

The Sharks were expected to struggle at the beginning of the season, but no one predicted them to be this bad. Despite starting the campaign at the bottom, their market rating has taken the biggest hit.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

When betting on hockey and its randomness, rationalizing can result in placing a well-thought-out bet that loses since most games are decided by one goal in a league where 21.4% of the games go to overtime. But putting rationale on paper can also result in talking yourself out of an underdog that wins because it's tough to make a case for the worse team.

For example, we backed the Sharks to beat the Kings on Monday. But think about what went into pulling the trigger on San Jose. Los Angeles had to come into that game with a 2-10 record in its last 12 contests. We then needed an underdog payout of +300 to take the risk, even though the team had just won a game on Saturday. We'd never predict that result outright, but a "Yes/No" prediction is a binary result, worth "1" or "0," whereas a Sharks' win won "3" after risking "1".

There are other times where making a case on a big underdog isn't easy. Recent winning pups like the Blackhawks (+205) over the Islanders, the Canadiens (+185) over the Avalanche, and the Ducks (+312) over the Panthers, came out of nowhere. The only reason to have played on the underdog would be because the price was a little too high on the favorite. But those matchups didn't provide a favorite that was struggling mightily, and even if the moneyline was listed as valuable, it was hard to make a case.

The cheat sheet

The dirty little secret in the betting world is that, while there are no bad bets at the right price, the discovery process of what a good price looks like is hidden.

Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side. The idea is to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-team results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

You can use whatever parameters you like to decide how much of an edge you need to trigger a bet, but here are mine:

• True line favorite of -111 or longer: 1%
• True line between -110 and +110: 2.5%
• True line underdog of +111 or longer: 4%

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for the second leg of a home back-to-back. When it comes to injured players, an estimation is made on the player's impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Senators had one of the best games they played all season during Hockey Day in Canada only to suffer an overtime loss to the Jets. The Maple Leafs outshot the league-leading Canucks 46-21 but fell short in the third in Vancouver. South of the border, the Penguins coughed up a 2-0 lead in the third period in Vegas despite having a 62% expected goal share at even strength.

As it sometimes goes in betting, the results didn't fall in our favor despite sticking to the correct process. Luckily, we have a six-game slate Monday night to get back on track.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 22

Golden Knights (+105) @ Devils (-125)

By the letter of the law in our cheat sheet, there's no value in betting on either side in this matchup. However, to take you into the kitchen, my projected win probabilities for this game are to be taken with a pinch of salt.

When you remove one key player, you can make an educated guess about what that star means to a team's chances of winning. When you take more than one out, it gets dicier. When both teams are missing important parts, it's like making jambalaya without the meat and spices.

For Vegas, Shea Theodore, Jack Eichel, William Karlsson, and William Carrier are still out, and Logan Thompson is still holding it down without a viable backup. Meanwhile, the Devils have been trying to stay afloat without Dougie Hamilton, Jack Hughes, and Ondrej Palat. So, no one knows if one team has an unaccounted-for advantage.

The Golden Knights, though, are going on the road for the second time in 11 games. As a general rule, support players perform better at home than on the road. Therefore, Vegas is potentially overvalued in New Jersey as the Golden Knights come into the contest with a rating steadied by success at home.

Pick: Devils (-125)

Sharks (+300) @ Kings (-380)

We'll take a shot on a huge underdog over concern about the Kings. We didn't mention winning with Los Angeles on Saturday night because it's not nearly as cathartic as commiserating over losses, and the Kings' win over the Rangers wasn't all that inspiring.

L.A. avoided its 11th loss in 12 games, mercifully converting two of only five high-danger chances (HDC) at even strength while earning just one power play. Five HDCs and one power play isn't the recipe for winning in the NHL. So, we won't assume the Kings are back in good form, making -380 too expensive of a price to pay for a side that's just 8-13 on the moneyline at home this season.

This leaves the Sharks, valuable at +282 or longer. The best we can say about them is they won against the Ducks on Saturday. Six of San Jose's 10 previous victories have come from separate two-game winning streaks. So, given the Kings' struggles, we can take a chance with another long shot.

Pick: Sharks (+300)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A busy weekend proved that the Canucks are still a wagon that's not to be trifled with, no matter the perceived value in fading Vancouver.

Meanwhile, the Rangers and Capitals split a home-and-home, and almost all of the underdogs fell short. The exceptions were the Flyers toppling the NHL's top team at the time and the Red Wings guiding Maple Leafs fans down their 12th downward spiral of the season.

These results, among others from the weekend, may inform an unusually busy Monday.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 15

Islanders (-105) @ Wild (-115)

The Wild went 1-6 without Kirill Kaprizov. The return of Minnesota's top scorer Saturday still didn't help the team as the Wild lost 6-0 at home to the Coyotes.

Why is that a good thing for Minnesota's chances Monday night?

For starters, the Wild's market rating has dipped to a similar level as when Kaprizov was out, thus increasing their value for a wager. More interestingly, nothing motivates professional athletes more than humiliation. The quotes that came from the Wild's locker room after Saturday's fiasco suggest we can expect their best effort here. Minnesota also gets a chance to send a message to the home crowd against the Islanders, who themselves are 3-6 since the Christmas break.

Pick: Wild (-115)

Predators (+105) @ Golden Knights (-125)

How low can we go with the Golden Knights' rating?

Jack Eichel joined William Karlsson, William Carrier, Shea Theodore, and a trio of goaltenders on the team's injury list, and Vegas lost 3-1 to the Flames on Saturday. That matchup was almost a pick'em at T-Mobile Arena, signaling that the Golden Knights' market rating has tumbled. Add Chandler Stephenson to the walking wounded, and you're left with Mark Stone and Jonathan Marchessault as the only players with more than a half-point per game.

Since edging the Sharks and Flames at home in mid-December, Vegas is 4-9. Additionally, the Predators are better on the road than at home. They have the fourth-best five-on-five expected goals share in the league away from Nashville and an 11-8 record to go with it.

Pick: Predators (+105)

Flyers (-105) @ Blues (-115)

The Blues haven't exactly dominated since firing Craig Berube, but their results since Dec. 12 have been very similar to Philadelphia's.

It looks even better for the Blues when you break it down to home/road splits. They have a 50% expected goals share on home ice, while the Flyers are 44.8% at even strength on the road.

If you look at these two clubs as equals at this point in the season, there's even more value on the home team at nearly a pick'em.

Pick: Blues (-115)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The two grimiest plays on Tuesday's card cashed, as the Ducks won convincingly as big underdogs and the Coyotes pulled off an overtime victory over the Bruins. The normally defensively stout Kings coughed up a late 2-0 lead and cost us profitability among a half-dozen plays, but it goes to show that catching a couple of upsets can limit the damage on nights where you don't get the other results you hoped for.

The cheat sheet

If you're thinking about betting any game on the slate, here's a look at the price you should be hoping to get on the moneyline for a valuable bet.

Best bets for Jan. 11

Kings (+120) @ Panthers (-140)

We can lament the Kings blowing what seemed like a sure win in Tampa, but even though a 2-0 lead seemed in line with how Los Angeles would execute a road win, the game wasn't as low-event as you might think. The Kings were outplayed at even strength with an expected goal share of 35%, allowing 16 high-danger chances to their eight. That's unbecoming of Todd McLellan's team, and I expect him to have his squad back on brand in Florida.

The Panthers beat us Tuesday in St. Louis, but looking at the advanced metrics from that matchup, I think I'd back the underdog again. Florida mustered only five even-strength high-danger chances (while allowing 10) but scored on two of them. With a 5-1 win, the Panthers didn't receive appropriate negative reinforcement for a lackluster contest, and in their first game back after a long trip, they might not have the same focus as the Kings, who likely beat them to South Florida on Tuesday night.

Pick: Kings (+120)

Maple Leafs (-130) @ Islanders (+110)

The Maple Leafs had their fun against the NHL's junior varsity team, beating the Sharks 11-2 over two games. Throw in their California sweep, and the Leafs are feeling good about themselves. That can be a tough mental space to go to Long Island with, especially with the Islanders' focus level after getting beat soundly by the Canucks.

New York circles this game on the calendar, and it should be another raucous night in the home barn. In their last meeting in Nassau, the Leafs salvaged a point in a game they were outplayed in, but the Isles won in overtime. I expect a similar imbalance in even-strength play and New York to take care of Toronto again.

Pick: Islanders (+110)

Kraken (-120) @ Capitals (+100)

It's been a disappointing season for Alex Ovechkin, and now the Capitals legend is likely to miss Thursday's game against the Kraken. So he joins an injury report that looks like the 2019 section on the Stanley Cup with Tom Wilson, T.J. Oshie, and, of course, Nicklas Backstrom. With all due respect to second-leading scorer Dylan Strome, Washington's already thin roster gets a visit from one of the hottest teams in hockey. Seattle was unfazed by its mini-break, as it cleaned out the Sabres, and is a good bet to do the same to the shallow Capitals.

Pick: Kraken (-120)

Bruins (-135) @ Golden Knights (+115)

The market hadn't been accurately pricing the Golden Knights during the absence of Shea Theodore, William Karlsson, and the top two goaltenders on their depth chart. Vegas hasn't had a game of better than 51% xG share at even strength, nor has it out-high-danger-chanced a team since mid-December.

At 3-8 in its last 11 contests, that's shown up in toss-up games with other good teams. After playing at elevation Wednesday night, Boston's waiting in Vegas coming off a loss to Arizona that likely didn't sit well. We expect Boston's best effort, and even if the Golden Knights do bring their best, with a thinner roster than usual, it might not be enough.

Pick: Bruins (-135)

Weekend cheat sheet

Here are the moneylines to target if you're looking to bet games over the weekend.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.