After closing at -105 on the moneyline in Game 3, the Lightning were +115 as the puck dropped in Game 4, a price across our threshold of +104 that we considered valuable before the series. That's a 5% shift in implied win probability after they lost a game that was 1.46-1.44 in even-strength expected goals.
Trying to predict which goaltender will come up big isn't easy. We were concerned about Andrei Vasilevskiy after a poor Game 3, and he didn't play particularly well in Game 4, registering a -0.58 GSAx. However, Sergei Bobrovsky was suddenly bad, going from 1.85 GSAx through three games to -2.03 on Saturday.
With our buy price on Tampa being +146, we took +160 with the Lightning for Game 2 in Sunrise - an overtime loss - so there's no reason not to try the underdogs again at +155. Bobrovsky and the Panthers will likely bring back their best effort, but at +155, we play the valuable side.
Even in a loss, the Golden Knights continue to baffle. A 4.62-1.3 differential in even-strength expected goals and 23-4 disparity in high-danger chances (HDC) surpasses last week's Islanders-Hurricanes Game 2 as the most lopsided contest of the postseason. But the Islanders were resorting to a defensive shell against the better team, protecting a lead on the road. What's the Golden Knights' excuse for a first period in which they allowed 11 HDC?
The most vexing part is that the Stars needed overtime to get their first win of the series after a shorthanded goal tied the game and Logan Thompson made 43 saves.
Through three games, the Stars have 46 HDC at even strength and the Knights have 19. Who are we supposed to think is the better team?
Of course, you're allowed to have a good goaltender. But Thompson's 4.54 GSAx to Jake Oettinger's minus-1.53 infers that the goal differential in this series should be six goals further in favor of Dallas. Can Thompson keep this up?
If Thompson was a star with a track record of stealing games, that would be one thing. But he came into his first Stanley Cup Playoffs with 96 career starts and a 2.67 goals against average and .912 save percentage.
Betting against the Golden Knights is a miserable experience, but there's no reasonable case for backing a team that mustered one even-strength HDC in 36 minutes across the third period and overtime.
Best bet: Stars moneyline (-115)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
If you've been burning the midnight oil this week, it may feel like we're far more than six days into the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but some teams have only played two games. With a loaded schedule this weekend - a dozen games - we're looking at what individual game and in-series bets may be worth making.
It took NHL insiders almost 48 hours to uncover Thatcher Demko's injury, and many bets for Game 2 were already placed. While Rick Tocchet gave the Predators credit for "wanting it more," the Canucks dominated play with a ridiculous 72.8% expected goals share at even strength, which included several missed wide-open nets. Casey DeSmith was serviceable but goals two and three likely wouldn't have been scored on Demko, as his size would have made a difference.
Rather than backing the Canucks in Game 3 - their first action in a hostile environment - we're taking a wider purview, eyeing Vancouver to win the series at -105. A split over the weekend in Music City would make the Canucks a big favorite with three games to go and buys time for a chance that Demko returns.
We hypothesized before Game 2 that it was more likely the Jets would get better play from Connor Hellebuyck and tighten the big even-strength advantage the Avalanche had in Game 1 instead of Alexandar Georgiev having a good game.
The unpredictability of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is perfectly exemplified by Hellebuyck posting a Vezina-caliber season in between a 1-5 playoff record and 4.34 GAA the last two postseasons. Meanwhile, Georgiev bounced back strong. Go figure.
If you're holding a ticket on the Jets to win the series, there's no reason to take a chance with the underdog until Hellebuyck shows he's capable, since the expected goals differential has been 8.04-3.73 in favor of Colorado. Instead, standing pat and hoping for a split is the prudent move.
We found one of the rare first-round underdogs in Game 2. The Kings' overtime win was proof they could put up a fight against the Oilers (in part because neither goaltender can be reasonably relied upon to be a positive difference-maker). With the series back in L.A., and the Kings getting the benefit of the last change - the option to match their best defenders with Connor McDavid - I expect the home underdogs to win one of two. Bet the Kings' moneyline in Game 3, and if they lose, try it again in Game 4 (barring a key injury).
The Stars were priced at -140 (58.3%) to win Game 1, and their even-strength metrics suggested they should have won 60% of the time. In Game 2, Dallas' -160 closing line suggested it was 61.5% likely to win, and its even-strength metrics suggested it would win 61% of the time. Dallas won neither.
If you hold a Dallas position, you're probably looking at a sunk cost, since the Golden Knights have shown the same prowess in close games that helped them win the Cup last year. Otherwise, how can you not simply back inevitable Vegas as the short home favorite?
A bet on the Capitals (+240) deserved better in Game 2 as Washington had nine even-strength high-danger chances to New York's three. A Rangers' shorthanded goal was the difference.
Unlike the Kings, we're taking only one shot backing the Capitals to make this series interesting, by taking them on the Game 3 moneyline. If they go down 3-0 in the series, I won't be pressing my luck a second time.
The Islanders topped the Hurricanes 2.38-1.3 in even-strength expected goals and nearly doubled their high-danger chances in Game 3 (10-6). However, none of Carolina's three goals came on a high-danger chance. Starting Ilya Sorokin backfired for New York; he was pulled after the final Canes marker in what ended up a 3-2 Carolina win, and what's now a 3-0 series.
Historically, teams down 3-0 with Game 4 at home win it roughly 38% of the time. That might seem low, but translating those chances to a moneyline equates to +163. It also includes a subset of teams in an era of less parity that were swept with little resistance.
Since the salary cap was instituted in 2005 - a move partially designed to increase parity - teams down 3-0 are 31-34 in Game 4 regardless of location. That 47.7% winning percentage translates to +110 on the moneyline.
The Isles' run-of-play advantage in Game 3 and their return to Semyon Varlamov makes them interesting at +155, given they played well. Still, the market is drifting away, based on the often false assumption that a team down 3-0 has lost the will to compete.
Blame an offside that negated a goal for Tampa Bay, or the coin-flip nature of a playoff game with a 1.46-1.44 expected goals differential, but the Lightning find themselves in the same position as the Isles. Like that series, Game 4 history applies here too, but Andrei Vasilevskiy regressed badly in a 5-3 loss, so Tampa doesn't have the same card to play between the pipes, and you're not getting a valuable price to back the underdog Lightning.
We'll see how the possible return of William Nylander affects the line. However, like Game 2, the Bruins will either do something they're unaccustomed to by starting Jeremy Swayman back-to-back, or return Linus Ullmark between the pipes. Let's back the Maple Leafs before the line moves toward them with any good roster news.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
As the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue, game moneylines theoretically get tighter. With more information about how teams match up, the quantitative value dries up. However, since there's more than one way to make a bet, we'll put an old cliche to the test Thursday and hope that desperation from a pair of teams at home down 2-0 is enough to get a win.
As is often the case with overtime results, this series may have been swung by Carter Verhaeghe's fifth career sudden-death playoff goal. Of course, the writing might have been on the wall after Sergei Bobrovsky's effort on what will be hard to beat for save of the playoffs:
If Matt Dumba converts there to give the Lightning a 3-2 lead, maybe we never see overtime, and maybe this series is tied. It's a big assumption, since the trailing Panthers would have put the pedal down even further - something they were already doing to the tune of an 18-8 high-danger chance disparity in the second period.
Florida's significant edge in five-on-five metrics came in the early stages of Game 1 and the second period of Game 2. While that's better than the lack of dominant stretches for Tampa, who's to say the Lightning can't have similar surges in front of their home crowd? That's what a bet here is hoping for.
One silver lining in the Lightning's empty trip across Florida was the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who's saved two cumulative goals against each game. Getting its No. 1 goaltender back on form was obviously key for Tampa before the series and bodes well for Game 3.
Before this series started, our target moneyline price to back the Lightning at home was essentially anything with a "+" in front of it. While -115 implies something of desperation tax, in a do-or-almost-die situation, the Lightning are the only side worth backing.
Carolina almost pulled a "Hurricane" in Game 2. The oft-heavily favored Canes are somewhat infamous for losing games they dominate everywhere but the scoreboard, something that nearly happened when they trailed the Islanders 3-0, in a game they had 110 shot attempts to New York's 28.
Carolina surged back to win in regulation, and the metrics didn't flatter the Isles. The Hurricanes' trailing game state - where the Isles assumed clinging to a lead was their best hope - had much to do with that.
Back home in a new building, in front of a fanbase known for out-and-out mayhem, the Isles should be the aggressors again, and if they get an early lead, they'll have inspiration to stay on the front foot. Especially since going down 3-0 in the series to a much better team isn't an option.
With goaltender Semyon Varlamov still reeling from the Game 2 onslaught, New York will turn to Ilya Sorokin for Game 3. Sorokin was the Islanders' nominal starter before a late-season Varlamov push. Sorokin's splits were much better at home this season, with a 15-7 regulation record compared to 10-12 on the road. He allows almost half a goal less at UBS Arena.
The market's well aware that if the Isles get a game in this series, this will be it. They're priced a little shorter than we'd like, but this should be the Islanders' best 60 minutes of the season and we'll bet it that way.
Best bet: Islanders moneyline (+140)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
Wednesday's NHL playoff slate has a pair of intriguing Game 2 matchups, plus the Bruins and Maple Leafs have the honor of being the first series to shift locations, which tightens the game line even further.
Uncomfortable bets often make for good ones, and backing and winning with the Maple Leafs in Boston on Monday was one you had to grit your teeth for. However, the even-strength metrics suggested that - with more evenly matched special teams and no outlier goaltending performance - the final score might be considerably different the second time around.
Sure enough, we saw a textbook carryover as Leafs skaters created similar expected goals share (52% to 55%) and again generated more even-strength high-danger chances (HDCs). This time, the teams matched power-play goals, and Linus Ullmark was merely average compared to Jeremy Swayman's outstanding Game 1. Meanwhile, Ilya Samsonov was much better in Game 2.
Now, the scene shifts to Toronto, and the odds reflect the change in home-ice advantage. However, shouldn't the Leafs' good even-strength metrics give them a little more credit?
With this being the first game where a series has shifted venues, it's worth a reminder that this means Toronto has the last change. That should provide more room for Auston Matthews and potentially lead to more production for the secondary players, while the Leafs can match their best defenders with the Bruins' dangerous top line if they want to.
Betting, like life, isn't fair. We backed the Stars on Monday, arguing that the game wasn't priced correctly. Dallas was priced at -140 for Game 1, 60 minutes of hockey was played, and the betting market took it all in and decided that the Stars should be -175 in the rematch. By that logic, we were right to bet on Dallas at a 5% edge on the favorite.
As for a game breakdown, we couldn't have gotten a better runout on paper. Dallas held the Golden Knights to just six HDCs at even strength and took just two penalties.
Unfortunately, sports are illogical, so Vegas scored on both power plays and added two more goals on non-high-danger chances, scoring four times on just 15 shots on Jake Oettinger in a 4-3 win.
Everything else aligned as you'd expect. Logan Thompson brought a 0.15 GSAx/60 into the playoffs and gave up a soft goal en route to a 0.26 GSAx in Game 1. The Stars converted two of their 11 even-strength HDCs - in line with their 13.1% regular-season conversion rate.
The moneyline isn't the short price offered before Game 1 - but, hopefully, Oettinger makes more than 11 saves, and the rest of the game goes virtually the same. If that's the case, Dallas should win without the need for overtime.
The most forgivable portion of a Stanley Cup Playoff series is the first period of Game 1. Teams handle the change in intensity from the regular season and the high-intensity environment differently. Plus, strategic adjustments haven't yet been made, nor have teams been physically worn down.
The Oilers were more ready to go than the Kings on Monday, as Edmonton racked up 10 even-strength HDCs to Los Angeles' one. Some apathy from a 4-0 Oilers lead may have had something to do with the Kings closing the gap in the predictive metrics, but confidence from Los Angeles scoring four times at even strength may carry over to Game 2.
I'm expecting a more alert start and hope the usually stingy Kings can stay out of the box after their No. 2-ranked penalty kill allowed three goals on four Oilers' power plays. L.A.'s an underdog worth taking a shot on to even the series.
Best bet: Kings moneyline (+160)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
The Lightning were lucky to still be breathing after the first 15 minutes of Game 1. The Panthers channeled the energy from the home crowd and completely outplayed their rival to start the game. However, Florida managed only one goal before Tampa created a scoring chance and finished with just a 13-10 edge in high-danger chances.
Tampa's lethal power play only got two chances to go to work - scoring once - and there's a good chance the team will get more opportunities in Game 2.
At +150, the odds for a Lightning win aren't differing from Game 1 and imply they need to win this game more than 40% of the time to be valuable. Taking Tampa - a veteran team - to draw even in what should be a highly competitive series is a pretty good idea, so if you think this matchup is closer to a 50/50 proposition, you're getting value on the Bolts.
Fading the Avalanche after a 3.77-1.48 advantage in even-strength expected goals isn't easy. However, which of these two aspects of the series in which we favored the Jets is more likely to occur in Game 2?
The Jets, who were strong all season, drive play more evenly.
Alexandar Georgiev is suddenly good after an effort in which he registered minus-4.43 goals saved above expected.
Georgiev was below average in the regular season (minus-0.21 GSAx), and a turnaround in his play seems far less likely than a turnaround by his counterpart, Vezina favorite Connor Hellebuyck, who also struggled in Game 1. However, rookie Justus Annunen missed practice with an illness on Monday, making him a high-risk play if Colorado wants to give up on Georgiev already.
With no good option in net, the Avalanche may need even more than a 14-8 edge in high-danger chances at even strength.
This was published before Thatcher Demko was ruled out of Game 2.
Vancouver's first home playoff game in nine years was almost too much for the team. Many said it took some time to settle into the contest. But now that the Canucks have felt what Rogers Arena can be come playoff time, look for them to channel that energy better early on.
The Canucks saw what the Predators do - attempt long breakout passes to counter their dominant offensive-zone possession - and quickly made adjustments, allowing no high-danger chances at even strength in the second period and just four in the third despite late pressure from Nashville.
Vancouver also tightened up its penalty kill after an early Preds conversion and avoided undisciplined penalties.
The Canucks drove play throughout the game and will have the right strategy in place in Game 2. While a moneyline bet should cash, risking -155 might not be your flavor in the postseason. The convincing win that these odds suggest probably comes with a more efficient start and Vancouver leading after the first period. That's a bet worth making at plus odds.
Pick: Canucks - First period 3-way (+150)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
No one wants to hear that a 5-1 opening-game loss in Boston wasn't that bad for the Maple Leafs, but it actually wasn't that bad.
From a metrics standpoint, Toronto had the edge in even-strength expected goals - 3.0 to 2.77 - and a significant 15-6 advantage in high-danger chances, suggesting the Leafs win the game around 62% of the time.
The problem for Toronto? The Bruins leaned on an incredible performance from Jeremy Swayman, who registered a +3.75 GSAx (goals saved above expected), while Auston Matthews hit the post on a yawning cage, missing a chance to tie the game in the second period. Add in a league-average Boston power play converting two of five opportunities, and that's a recipe for a lopsided score.
A four-goal loss still counts for only one win in a series where the Leafs would be content leaving Boston with a split. The betting market didn't think Game 1 was enough to change the odds for Game 2, as Toronto's +120 moneyline still implies it wins this game. A modest adjustment will often be made in favor of the loser of the last contest, but we're not seeing that here.
It would be a bonus for the Leafs if William Nylander returns, but they produced enough chances without him Saturday, and doing so again will give them a good shot at winning Game 2. At better than a 50-50 price at +120, the Leafs are a surprisingly good bet Monday night and worth adding to win the series at +200.
With a pair of Game 1s yet to be played, we're still flying relatively blind in the two series that start Monday. But that's the key to playing the series opener in Dallas. The betting market doesn't know what to make of the allegedly full-strength Golden Knights.
As mentioned in the Western Conference first-round preview, Vegas - a wild-card team with mediocre metrics - is rated nearly as high as the Stars, who proved their quality all season long and earned the conference's top seed.
The market's hypothesis seems to be that the Golden Knights will take off running this week, mirroring the team that won the Stanley Cup with a 21.2% even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate (league average is 12.5%) and a rookie goaltender saving 0.71 GSAx/60. Both numbers would be a significant upgrade from Vegas' regular season. The Knights might realize that high-end potential in Game 1, but we need much longer odds to bet on them.
Instead, let's back the Stars, whose young core - with three series of playoff experience under its belt - will help them transition to postseason mode.
Best bet: Stars moneyline (-140)
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
You've had all season to bet on the Stanley Cup winner, but the Conn Smythe Award - given to the playoffs' most valuable player - has only been available on the oddsboard for a few days.
It's a more nuanced betting market with longer odds that can result in a big payout, such as Jonathan Marchessault's Conn Smythe-worthy postseason at longer than 50-1 odds. Had you pegged the Golden Knights for a Cup contender, figured a single goaltender wouldn't necessarily lead the way, and picked out Vegas' most clutch scorer, you'd have a big win on a low-investment bet.
The premise remains the same. Working backward - as we have to do in this market - if the Oilers win the Stanley Cup, what are the chances they do so without McDavid getting credit for being their MVP? My quantitative assessment would be 0%. Edmonton's odds are +750 to end Canada's championship drought. Why bet that when you can get McDavid for as long as +1200?
Best bets
To start our Conn Smythe betting portfolio, we'll look at the teams we think will advance from the first round and go all the way. We'll then analyze those teams' makeups to determine their most likely MVPs. There are two types of teams - goalie-centric and non-goalie-centric ones. The former often has a deeper forward group and a Vezina-level netminder capable of handling the postseason's long haul. The latter is a team like the 2023 Golden Knights or the 2022 Avalanche, who won despite not having a true No. 1.
Auston Matthews (+2200) or David Pastrnak (+1800)
Call it betting's version of "Choose Your Own Adventure" - the Maple Leafs and Bruins have the tightest series price.
In years past, Matthews shared credit for any Maple Leafs success with Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and even Morgan Rielly. This year's near-70-goal campaign separated Matthews from the group, definitively making him the most likely player to carry the Leafs if they are to achieve the unfathomable. His odds are far better than Toronto's +1200 to win the Stanley Cup.
If you prefer the Bruins to the Leafs in Round 1, you can take Pastrnak. With Boston committed to a goaltender rotation and "Pasta" 43 points clear of his next-closest teammate, he's the clear-cut choice on a potential championship Bruins team.
Nikita Kucherov (+2500)
Matthew Tkachuk almost won the Conn Smythe as a long shot last year, but with the Panthers favored this time around, the word is out on his candidacy. The Lightning's modest regular season doesn't mean they can't have a big postseason, and no one was better than Nikita Kucherov this campaign. To be dangerous, Tampa will need above-average goaltending from Andrei Vasilevskiy, scoring from Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman's dominance. But Kucherov's at his peak, and his sheer point volume would make him the choice from Tampa.
Seth Jarvis (+15000) Teuvo Teravainen (+15000)
If we're looking for a Marchessault-like (28-goal, 57-point regular season) candidate, the Hurricanes have a few. The Stanley Cup favorite is likely to use both Frederik Andersen and Pyotr Kochetkov in the net, and leading point-scorer Sebastian Aho might be assist-heavy.
Jarvis was Carolina's second-leading goal-scorer. The 22-year-old often produced after receiving passes from Aho and led the Canes with 13 power-play goals.
Don't flip a coin between Martin Necas and Teuvo Teravainen. Instead, bet whoever has the longer odds. The second-line wingers also strike on the power play and provide a good lesson about taking long-shot players on great teams versus great players on long-shot teams. Let's grab two Hurricanes at long odds and see if either emerges early with a low-risk bet.
Connor Hellebucyk (+2500) Thatcher Demko (+5000)
Hellebuyck and Demko are Vezina-level goaltenders for Canadian franchises that are in similar good situations. There are enough capable scorers on the Jets and Canucks to effectively split a Conn Smythe vote. But that shouldn't matter - if a Canadian team brings home the Stanley Cup, it'll almost undoubtedly be on the back of one of the league's best goaltenders.
Miro Heiskanen (+6000)
The Stars' series price against the defending champs is unnecessarily short in the first round, which creates value for any player to win the Conn Smythe. They took the West's top spot without stellar goaltending or a standout scorer, so why couldn't they win the Stanley Cup under the same circumstances? Heiskanen might get credit for everything he does collectively from the back end to make the Stars shine.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
The Eastern Conference matchups and their odds have been on the board for days, while the regular season's final night and a pair of surprising results shuffled the deck one final time out West.
Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.
Skaters' scoring talent
TEAM
SNIPES
ES xG%
HDCA/G
Kings
14.9%
54.5
8.3
Oilers
15.3%
56.7
8.8
Both the Kings and Oilers have converted their best scoring chances (SNIPES) above the league average of 14.5% and are also in the top five in expected goal share.
Goaltending matchup
TEAM
GOALTENDER
GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Kings
Cam Talbot
0.47
David Rittich
0.64
Oilers
Stuart Skinner
0.16
Skinner came into last year's playoffs saving the Oilers 0.26 goals per 60 minutes after the All-Star break but was replaced by Jack Campbell after posting a -6.9 GSA/x in 12 games. Meanwhile, it remains to be seen if the 36-year-old Talbot can handle the postseason workload.
Team ratings
Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I rate them (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break.
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Kings
+15%
+18.9%
+7.1%
Oilers
+25%
+25.3%
+10.7%
Despite a slow start, the market never wavered on the Oilers, properly rating them as one of the NHL's top teams. The Kings' swoon happened midseason, and some late missteps are concerning, but I have them rated marginally higher than the market.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
SERIES WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES
Kings
39.6%
+165
+111
+181
Oilers
60.4%
-134
+110
-146
The Kings are built to be a playoff irritant. This is the third straight year these teams will face off in the postseason, and the Oilers advanced twice thanks to a 45.7% power play. That ended two seasons where the Kings were ranked 24th and 22nd shorthanded, respectively. While drawing Connor McDavid in the first round is daunting, Los Angeles improved to the second-best penalty kill, and its experience in planning for Edmonton's top line could be beneficial.
These teams combined for 6-plus goals in 10 of the 13 playoff meetings, and the total for Game 1 is 5.5. For the series, it will require some price-shopping and patience, but as the Kings' series price creeps up toward +180, they're the only side worth playing in what should be a tight series.
Demko answered most of the questions surrounding a late-season absence due to a knee injury with 39 saves against the Flames in Vancouver's penultimate regular-season game. Meanwhile, 6.9 of Saros's 7.4 GSAx came during the Predators' 18-game point streak.
Team ratings
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Predators
+10%
+9.9%
+9.8%
Canucks
+10%
+10.8%
+4.9%
One team is a division champion, while the other never got higher in the standings than a wild-card spot, but the Canucks and Predators ended up similarly rated in the market and via the metrics we hold dear.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
SERIES WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES PTB
Predators
47.3%
+141
-109
+131
Canucks
52.7%
-115
+133
-107
Full credit to the Predators for making the playoffs with a stunning 18-game stretch after the All-Star break, but a run that came against just six playoff teams - combining hot goaltending from both Saros and backup Kevin Lankinen, 15 goals for Forsberg, and 25 points for Nyquist - is unsustainable.
The Canucks' Pacific division lead afforded them room to be complacent down the stretch, but in their biggest games, they shut down the Oilers and Golden Knights in playoff-style games. Rick Tocchet's group is deeper offensively and will limit chances against Demko - the better goaltender in this matchup.
The notable difference lies between the pipes, with Hellebuyck the favorite to win the Vezina and Georgiev essentially the definition of a replacement-level goaltender.
Team ratings
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Avalanche
+20%
+9.1%
+3.0%
Jets
+10%
+13.0%
+2.6%
The betting market loves the Avalanche. Other teams could be top line-centric with mediocre even-strength metrics and non-descript goaltending and not get nearly the credit Colorado does.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
SERIES WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES PTB
Avalanche
44.4%
+147
+104
+148
Jets
55.6%
-120
+117
-120
I feared the Jets hammering the Avs 7-0 in Colorado last Sunday - earning home-ice advantage here - might lead to Winnipeg being favored in this matchup, but Avalanche support is undaunted.
The Jets are the better team top to bottom, have greater depth, and are far healthier than when Vegas quickly knocked them out in last year's first round. Colorado overcame bad goaltending to win a Stanley Cup two seasons ago, but having to skimp on the most critical position in hockey will burn the club for the second straight postseason.
The Golden Knights enjoyed an unprecedented high-danger chance conversion rate on the way to the Stanley Cup last year, but they're not the better team in that category in this matchup.
Goaltending matchup
TEAM
GOALTENDER
GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Golden Knights
Logan Thompson
0.15
Adin Hill
-0.51
Stars
Jake Oettinger
0.12
This is a matchup between replacement-level goaltenders, as Hill's magical playoff run last year hasn't carried over to this season. Meanwhile, the Stars hope that Oettinger finds his way back to his early-career form that's eluded him for over a year.
Team ratings
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Golden Knights
+15%
+10.0%
+1.3%
Stars
+20%
+30.1%
+16.1%
The Stars are considered the better team, but the Golden Knights continue to get more credit in the marketplace than they earned this season.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
NEUT. WIN PROB
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES PTB
Golden Knights
28.3%
+208
+150
+311
Stars
71.7%
-167
-122
-241
The Stars should be a much bigger favorite based on season-long metrics and results, but the twist is that the Golden Knights expect to have Mark Stone back, completing a roster that added Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin and hasn't been together all season.
Loathe trusting what amounts to a hypothesis about the Golden Knights, even if Vegas is better than the season-long numbers suggest. Getting the Stars as a short favorite is tough to pass up.
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The Western Conference's eight playoff teams have been set for some time, while the East had more of a royal rumble for its final playoff berth. Do the Presidents' Trophy-winning Rangers have a beneficial path? What should we make of the rivalry-laden gauntlet that is the Atlantic Division?
Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.
Skaters' scoring talent
TEAM
SNIPES
ES xG%
HDCA/G
Maple Leafs
14.8%
52.1
9.8
Bruins
15.6%
50.3
9.8
The Maple Leafs and Bruins were above league average in SNIPES percentage, but Toronto was the better team at driving play at even strength this season.
Goaltending matchup
TEAM
GOALTENDER
GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Maple Leafs
Ilya Samsonov
0.135
Bruins
Jeremy Swayman
0.401
Linus Ullmark
0.569
As of two weeks ago, Ilya Samsonov qualified as a contender for this playoffs' hot goalie, but a minus-4.08 goals saved above expected in April dipped his GSAx/60 below a standard of 0.25. The Bruins have the clear edge between the pipes in this series.
Team ratings
Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Maple Leafs
+15.0%
+18.2%
+9.9%
Bruins
+15.0%
+11.2%
-2.9%
The Bruins' metrics after the All-Star break stick out like a sore thumb, with a 48.6% expected goals share as the main culprit, suggesting they've been below average. They let the Atlantic Division slip through their fingers and must turn their play around to avoid another first-round upset in a row.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
SERIES WIN PROB.
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES
Maple Leafs
55.5%
+113
-125
-120
Bruins
44.5%
+108
+153
+138
The headline here is that I have the Maple Leafs as the better team and a short favorite despite the Bruins having home-ice advantage and the prevailing sentiment that Boston has historically had Toronto's number.
These teams haven't met in the playoffs since back-to-back seven-game series in 2018 and 2019. Since losing both, the Leafs have improved - exemplified by Auston Matthews doubling his season goal count - and have their deepest forward group yet.
Expectations were probably too high for a young team pre-pandemic, which created a narrative among bettors that the Maple Leafs should be afraid of the Bruins. However, after getting the first-round monkey off their back last season, you should have no problem backing the Leafs at a plus price to win within six games.
The Panthers have been the more dominant team all season, but the Lightning have the highest SNIPES percentage of any playoff team and are thus dangerous in the small sample size of a seven-game series.
Goaltending matchup
TEAM
GOALTENDER
GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy
-0.13
Panthers
Sergei Bobrovsky
0.42
The Lightning's hopes rest on Andrei Vasilevskiy going from liability this season (coming off hip surgery) to pulling off a similar feat to Carey Price or Marc-Andre Fleury - two veteran goalies who recently carried teams to the conference finals despite poor regular seasons.
Team ratings
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Lightning
+5%
+8.9%
-0.6%
Panthers
+20%
+13.7%
+7.8%
The Panthers have been rated higher and played better than the Lightning all season.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
SERIES WIN PROB.
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES
Lightning
43.7%
+149
+106
+152
Panthers
56.3%
-122
+116
-124
In 10 recent playoff matchups against the Panthers, the Lightning have won eight, thanks mainly to a 34.3% power-play efficiency. The veteran group that ran out of gas against Toronto last year won't be afraid of its in-state rival.
Tampa was 28.7% with the man advantage this season (and top five on the penalty kill). If it can get a short-term boost from Vasilevskiy, there's some value on the Lightning - their odds have lengthened since opening at around +140.
Metrics-based bettors didn't like that the Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy despite an even split in their even-strength expected goals share. Getting the top seed has earned them a matchup with the Capitals, one of three playoff teams worse in that metric.
Goaltending matchup
TEAM
GOALTENDER
GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Capitals
Charlie Lindgren
0.25
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin
0.72
After a slow start in which Jonathan Quick excelled in the backup role, Igor Shesterkin is back to being a problem for opposing shooters. Meanwhile, the Capitals' unlikely run to the playoffs was aided by Charlie Lindgren's emergence.
Team ratings
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Capitals
-15%
-7.4%
-3.1%
Rangers
+15%
+11.4%
-0.01%
The Capitals never got credit in the betting market as even an average team, while the Rangers often looked like one but with far better results.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
NEUT. WIN PROB.
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES
Capitals
28.2%
+207
+152
+313
Rangers
71.8%
-166
-124
-243
The Rangers' SNIPES percentage and stellar goaltending more than made up for average even-strength metrics. It's a similar story to two seasons ago when Shesterkin stood on his head to beat the Penguins. New York reached the conference final despite allowing 138 more high-danger chances than they generated.
The Rangers are marginally overvalued at the current series price but have a track record of overcoming that. Instead of taking the Capitals to win the series, let's bet on this series going a little longer than the market expects.
This matchup is why it's worth noting high-danger chances against per game. There's not much difference in the other three series, but the Hurricanes have a massive two-per-game differential over the Islanders.
Goaltending matchup
TEAM
GOALTENDER
GSAx/60 (POST-ASB)
Islanders
Ilya Sorokin
0.06
Semyon Varlamov
0.45
Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen
1.46
Pyotr Kochetkov
0.59
We've included both Canes goaltenders because Frederik Andersen might not be up for a full-time workload, and Pyotr Kochetkov's numbers are so good that the team should have no issue giving Andersen a breather. Meanwhile, the Isles appear to be turning to theoretical backup Semyon Varlamov in Game 1.
Team ratings
TEAM
MARKET
SEASON
POST-ASB
Islanders
-5%
-2.7%
+2.0%
Hurricanes
+25%
+30.4%
+18.7%
Simply put, the Hurricanes have few holes, while the Isles are average at best, with no arguable advantage in any key category.
Best bet
Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.
TEAM
SERIES WIN PROB.
GM 1/2/5/7
GM 3/4/6
SERIES PTB
Islanders
16.5%
+293
+199
+697
Hurricanes
83.5%
-228
-160
-470
Despite excellent even-strength metrics in recent years, the Hurricanes' poor scoring rates have prevented them from meeting expectations. Many will forget that they didn't have Andrei Svechnikov (knee injury) last year. They've added Jake Guentzel (25 points in 17 games), while 22-year-old Seth Jarvis had a 33-goal breakout season. Scoring-depth issues should be solved, and Carolina should make quick work of the Islanders.
Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.
How'd your team do this season?
Once the Eastern Conference mercifully sorts itself out in the coming days, 16 teams will have failed to make the playoffs, and two months from now, 31 will have failed to win the Stanley Cup. However, that doesn't mean every team that doesn't do ceremonial circles around the ice with the Cup gets a thumbs-down on the season.
That's why betting is so fun. We have a market available before the season that sets a preliminary bar for what should constitute a successful campaign: regular-season point totals.
No matter what happens the rest of the way, the 2023-24 season will be remembered by Canucks backers as the easiest win imaginable on an over ticket, as Vancouver cleared 89 points weeks ago. The Jets surpassed expectations at nearly the same level.
Regular-season point totals: Over winners
Team
Regular-season point totals
Hurricanes
107.5
Stars
105.5
Rangers
102
Bruins
100
Panthers
98.5
Lightning
95.5
Jets
91.5
Canucks
89
Predators
87
Red Wings
85.5
Capitals
85
Blues
84.5
Flyers
75.5
Canadiens
72
Fourteen teams are considered winners for their bettors, and even if the Red Wings, Capitals, and Flyers don't make the playoffs, they'll be considered winners in some circles. On the flip side, if you preferred to bet against achievement, the Sharks, Blackhawks, Senators, and Flames were the four biggest disappointments of 13 teams that clinched their under totals (though most teams that didn't get to their prescribed numbers weren't even close).
Regular-season point totals: Under winners
Team
RSP Totals
Devils
107
Maple Leafs
106.5
Golden Knights
102.5
Penguins
97.5
Wild
96.5
Flames
94.5
Kraken
93
Sabres
92.5
Senators
91.5
Blue Jackets
73.5
Blackhawks
71
Ducks
67.5
Sharks
66.5
Of course, the Maple Leafs, Golden Knights, and Penguins could still win the Stanley Cup, but that won't be much consolation for those who felt they'd have better regular seasons.
Twenty-seven teams have either paid out their backers or faders, which leaves five teams hanging in the balance for the season's final week:
Regular-season point totals: Markets TBD
Team
Point Totals
Points Needed
Games Left
Avalanche
106.5
2
1
Oilers
106
5
3
Kings
100.5
4
2
Islanders
90
1
2
Coyotes
76.5
2
1
The Avalanche play their finale against the Oilers at home Thursday. That game may be meaningless for both, but not for either team's bettors, since Edmonton has to get two wins in its final three games to clear its regular-season points total, potentially without Connor McDavid.
An up-and-down season for the Kings closes with two home games against below-average teams (Wild and Blackhawks). Well rested and motivated for playoff positioning, those who need L.A. to go over 100.5 should feel good, but nothing's guaranteed.
The Islanders are no worse than a push and have two games to manage one point. Appropriately, one more point should get New York into the playoffs, as well, so the art of betting is imitating life here.
Here's a fun one: The Coyotes have one more game to get two points needed to go over their total, and it's against the Oilers in what could be their final game in Arizona before moving to Utah.
The cheat sheet
Each week, we balance market information from regular-season point totals and in-season advanced metrics - with an even-strength focus - to determine the win probability for each team and the moneyline needed to bet on either side.
You can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between the market opening and puck drop.
DATE
GAME
WIN PROB. (%)
PRICE TO BET
Apr. 15
MTL@DET
39.2/60.8
MTL +184/DET -149
NSH@PIT
42.7/57.3
NSH +159/PIT -129
BOS@WSH
59.1/40.9
BOS -139/WSH +171
NYI@NJD
47.2/52.8
NYI +131/NJD -107
BUF@TB
43.3/56.7
BUF +154/TB -126
OTT@NYR
41.4/58.6
OTT +167/NYR -136
SJS@EDM
20.4/79.6
SJS +508/EDM -366
MIN@LAK
41.8/58.2
MIN +165/LAK -134
Apr. 16
CAR@CBJ
75.9/24.1
CAR -298/CBJ +397
DET@MTL
52.8/47.2
DET -107/MTL +131
OTT@BOS
40.3/59.7
OTT +175/BOS -142
WSH@PHI
43.2/56.8
WSH +155/PHI -126
TOR@FLA
47.7/52.3
TOR +121/FLA +101
SEA@WPG
43.6/56.4
SEA +152/WPG -124
CHI@VGK
21.4/78.6
CHI +476/VGK -347
Apr. 17
TOR@TB
50.8/49.2
TOR +107/TB +114
PIT@NYI
50.7/49.3
PIT +108/NYI +114
STL@DAL
25.5/74.5
STL +365/DAL -277
EDM@ARI
60.3/39.7
EDM -146/ARI +180
Apr. 18
SEA@MIN
42.7/57.3
SEA +159/MIN -129
VAN@WPG
46.4/53.6
VAN +136/WPG -111
SJS@CGY
22.7/77.3
SJS +434/CGY -322
EDM@COL
36.3/63.7
EDM +210/COL -168
ANA@VGK
27.3/72.7
ANA +328/VGK -253
CHI@LAK
20.5/79.5
CHI +504/LAK -364
It's worth mentioning as the season concludes: The above odds imply both teams have full interest in the game. For example, the Oilers' numbers reflect McDavid sitting out, since there seems little reason for Edmonton to bring him back before the playoffs. Other teams with secure playoff positioning may opt to put any number of roster combinations on the ice, so tread lightly.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.