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Tuesday's matchups feature a doubleheader of sizeable home favorites, but the two scenarios couldn't be more different. The underdog Bruins face elimination at the paws of the Panthers, while the Canucks still aren't getting much credit in the market despite having a 2-1 series lead over the Oilers.

Let's investigate the odds for each game and see if there's anything worth playing Tuesday night.

Game 5: Bruins (+175) @ Panthers (-210)

We came into this series thinking it might end earlier than the betting market suggested. The idea for taking under 5.5 games (+135) was that Boston would need to jump on the Panthers early to mitigate the effects of a long first-round series with the Bruins playing every second night for nearly a month.

That happened, but for one game. The other reason we bet on a short series is because the Panthers are considerably better, which has come to the forefront with three straight Florida wins. Now we're sitting on a ticket that cashes with a Panthers win Tuesday, a bet that doubles as a moneyline wager at considerably better odds.

Speaking of the pricing, the betting market closed with Florida as -160 favorites before the club's two home games - an implied win probability of 61.5%. After two wins in Boston, the Panthers are now -210 in Sunrise to close out the Bruins. That's an implied win probability of 67.7%.

What's changed for Boston to make it theoretically 6% less likely to win? Losing captain Brad Marchand is the obvious difference. But even though it lost both home games, the Bruins generated 20 even-strength high-danger chances to Florida's 12.

A price shift to this degree, combined with competitive analytics, would normally lead us toward a bet on the underdog. However, if you're holding a ticket that cashes with a Panthers win, there's no reason to do anything but stand pat.

Game 4: Canucks (+175) @ Oilers (-210)

In any fairly priced matchup, you look for spots in the series where the pricing might become askew.

The Canucks were the better team in Game 1, but for more than two periods, it looked like a rough outing from Arturs Silovs (minus-2.28 GSAx) would cost them. An Oilers win would've likely overvalued them in the market, but Vancouver's thrilling comeback splashed water on that and created a desperation level from Edmonton in Game 2 that we don't like to fade.

With the series tied, the Canucks jumped out to leads of 3-1 and 4-2 in Game 3 before going into a defensive posture in the third period. Silovs spiked up with 2.62 goals saved above expected (GSAx), while Stuart Skinner cratered, allowing 2.52 goals more than expected.

Considering Edmonton recorded only two more high-danger chances than Vancouver at five-on-five, had one more power play, and played over three minutes of six-on-five hockey, does a game with a misleading 45-18 shot total carry a price adjustment? Only if you think the underdog Canucks are better than the +175 moneyline suggests.

Two goaltenders capable of significant highs and lows aren't something we should be dying to predict nightly. The Oilers could further complicate things by turning to Calvin Pickard in Game 4, a goalie with a regular season GSAx/60 right around the NHL average of 0.15.

These teams have combined for 13.06 expected goals at even strength, or 4.35 per game, and that's before accounting for soft goals or those coming from power plays, which are a combined 7-for-17. With three straight contests going over 6.5 goals in this series, Oilers playoff games are now 7-1 to the over. But the betting market hasn't adjusted, leaving the total at 6.5.

If you're holding a Canucks +1.5 games ticket from our series preview, you have three chances for that bet to be a winner. For Game 4, the only case to be made for a valuable bet is on either the underdog or the over.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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In the Stanley Cup Playoffs, there's no such thing as a comfortable situation - let alone in the latter half of a series. Every game is pivotal.

Even though they're at different stages and have different series scores, Monday's home teams are surely feeling the pressure.

Game 5: Hurricanes (-110) @ Rangers (-110)

The Rangers are in unfamiliar territory, coming off their first playoff loss of 2024, so why should their position - still up 3-1 - feel precarious?

It starts with the moneyline pricing for Game 5. Like Games 1 and 2 in New York, the odds amount to a coin-flip proposition. Looking at the even-strength metrics for the previous contests at Madison Square Garden, the Rangers deserved a Game 1 win 51% of the time, and the Hurricanes deserved Game 2 about 52% of the time. The betting market can be stubborn, but 50/50 pricing feels appropriate even though New York won both times (the latter in double overtime).

Goaltending was the difference in the first two contests. In Game 1, Frederik Andersen disappointed for Carolina. In Game 2, Igor Shesterkin was better by an eyelash in an outing marked by great saves on both sides.

The market reacted to a slight overpricing of Carolina in the opening moneyline odds for Game 3, driving the Canes from -170 to -150. Shesterkin stole the matchup with 2.37 goals saved above expected (GSAx), but his Game 4 numbers resembled those from Game 1. With two outstanding games and two average ones from the Russian netminder, predicting his play this series also seems like a 50/50 proposition.

Since we can't earnestly do that, we must continue to value what's happening at even strength. The Hurricanes have limited the Rangers' key weapon - the man advantage - by not giving up a power-play goal since Game 2's tying goal and taking just one penalty this past Saturday.

For all of Shesterkin's greatness, the Hurricanes are scoring on 17.4% of their even-strength high-danger chances (league average: 12.5%), while creating nine more than the Rangers this series. Carolina's historical issue of not converting its best scoring opportunities clearly doesn't apply in Round 2.

Most of that discrepancy came in Raleigh, confirming that the Hurricanes should be able to force a Game 7 if they can extend the series Monday night. This means the Rangers should feel pressure to close out Carolina at home. But we'll bet against New York getting the job done.

Best bet: Hurricanes moneyline (-110)

Game 4: Stars (+120) @ Avalanche (-140)

The Stars' underlying metrics suggest they were a better collective team than the Avalanche in the regular season. But Game 1 tried to trick us.

Dallas was gifted three goals in the first period even though the team didn't generate a high-danger chance until the third period (and just one before overtime). In hindsight, a Colorado comeback was inevitable. Then, an experienced Stars group bounced back nicely for a well-earned win in Game 2.

All square at one, both teams played arguably their best game of the series in Game 3, but Jake Oettinger (1.86 GSAx) outplayed Alexandar Georgiev (0.87 GSAx).

Now the tables have turned. Like the Rangers, the Avalanche won't be eliminated with a loss on Monday, but things would look pretty dicey.

Like the Hurricanes, the Avalanche have an advantage in even-strength high-danger chances (28-16). Looking at Colorado's body of work in the playoffs, the team deserves credit for upping its level from the end of the regular season.

A -140 price on the moneyline suggests a 58.3% implied win probability, which is worth a bet if we're near 60% sure that Colorado evens the series at home. And betting on a team with that kind of star power and ample experience of its own is a good gamble.

Best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-140)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Blame Luis Miguel.

The NHL's forefathers probably didn't envision the longtime Latin music sensation's Wednesday concert being the reason for the Stars' quick turnaround after winning Sunday's Game 7 over the Golden Knights (along with the NBA's Mavericks calling dibs on American Airlines Center next weekend). But here we are: Game 1 of Stars-Avalanche goes Tuesday.

A tight turnaround complicates a series handicap, like the Bruins-Panthers matchup. In this case, one side might've been a bigger favorite if Dallas wasn't a sports and entertainment hotbed and all things were closer to equal.

Let's continue to use the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, goaltending) to break it all down.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances

Avalanche vs. Stars

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

The above table spells out why the Stars may be an attractive bet relative to the market. They drove play well (xG%), converted chances better than any playoff-caliber team, and limited opponents' high-danger chances in the regular season. Against Vegas, Dallas overcame a pair of hot goaltenders, as Adin Hill and Logan Thompson (combined 10.46 GSAx) held the Stars to a 9.2% SNIPES rate. Connor Hellebuyck didn't do the same against Colorado (22.7% SNIPES).

Goaltending matchup

As expected, Alexandar Georgiev was a replacement-level goalie in Round 1. But there's a twist: Georgiev allowed 4.4 goals saved above expected in Game 1, meaning the following four contests were good enough to get him back near league average. Jake Oettinger's path was similar, going from minus-2.2 GSAx after a brutal Game 1 to plus-2.33 for the series.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

The betting market loved both teams equally throughout the season, which explains why the betting line's so tight - essentially accounting for less than the home-ice advantage. However, the Stars' quality shines through when you trim it down to the skaters' metrics mentioned above, which we consider most valuable.

With five more expected goals and 30 more high-danger chances at even strength, the Stars were 18% better than the defending Stanley Cup champions, a Vegas team rated 15% above average in the market. By comparison, the Avalanche were 14% better than the Jets (rated 10% above average). The difference between Colorado's five-game series and Dallas' seven-game series was goaltending.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Now for the caveat: the rest issue. The numbers above don't acknowledge Dallas' tight turnaround or Colorado's time off and fewer early playoff miles accrued. There's no formula to account for those variables.

For Dallas, it's a similar situation to Round 1 since Vegas came into the playoffs with a full roster for the first time all season. All signs pointed to the Stars winning, but quantifying it was impossible since there was no way to know if Vegas' personnel would take it to another level.

Last year, Dallas played two long series against inferior teams before running out of gas while attempting to come back from a 3-0 deficit in the Western Conference Final. Treading lightly is the prudent strategy, but the Stars' quality - they rated as the best road team in the NHL this season - warrants a bet at a short price.

Best bet: Stars to win series (-125)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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The Bruins vanquished the Maple Leafs on Saturday, breaking hearts in Toronto yet again. While Boston's relief of not blowing a 3-1 first-round series lead was palpable, needing seven games puts the Bs at a disadvantage for Round 2. They shuffle down to Florida for a quick turnaround against the well-rested Panthers.

A significant disparity in rest complicates expectations as we continue to use the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, goaltending) to break it all down.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances

Bruins vs. Panthers

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

Against the Leafs, the Bruins were much better on the power play than at even strength, but 12-of-88 (13.6%) wasn't enough to match their regular-season SNIPES rate, which was fourth among playoff teams. Meanwhile, in five games, the Panthers had the same number of even-strength high-danger chance conversions (six) in 20 fewer chances.

Goaltending matchup

Sergei Bobrovsky was steady against the Lightning, so the Bruins' goaltending situation is far more interesting.

The Bruins had little choice but to roll with Jeremy Swayman, who needs a raise to pay the foreign buyer's tax on his ownership of Toronto. A 1.42 GSAx is unbelievably good. But given the quick start to Round 2, this could be an opportunity to rest Swayman in Game 1 and get back to the rotation Jim Montgomery intended to use before the playoffs started. Linus Ullmark won all three starts against the Panthers this season, racking up a .947 save percentage and 1.62 goals-against average.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

The Bruins and the Maple Leafs both had a team rating 15% above league average, resulting in a close, competitive series. Meanwhile, the Panthers controlled 53% of even-strength play in Round 1, befitting a team with a slightly higher rating than its second-round opponent.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Based on the entire season, the Bruins have a 46% chance to win the series, while their +150 odds imply a 40% win probability. That 6% difference is likely the result of a rest disparity and the idea that Boston may have been fortunate to beat Toronto, who missed Auston Matthews and William Nylander at various points of the series.

It'll be interesting to see if the market applies that thought process to the games in Beantown since a Game 1 moneyline of +145 suggests the Bruins will be +120 underdogs at home in Game 3.

The Panthers are the better team and boast both rest and home-ice advantage. Any Bruin exhaustion will potentially show up as the players wear down later in the series. Should a theoretically valuable bet on Boston come to fruition, it may be the result of fatigue getting to Florida early - which could help the Bruins take advantage of Bobrovsky's habit of occasional lulls in play.

Here are possible ways to back the Bruins early:

• Correct score after three games: Bruins 2-1 (+195)
• Bruins -1.5 games (+250)
• Bruins -2.5 games (+600)

If the Bruins fall behind early in the series, it'll be surprising if things get better for them as playoff minutes pile up. Acknowledging that Boston could steal low-scoring games early enough to clip Florida, we'll sacrifice some of the Panthers -2.5 payout and play the series game total.

Best bet: Under 5.5 games (+135)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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The Oilers-Canucks series provides Canada with its last hope to break the country's Stanley Cup drought.

Despite a 4-0 regular-season sweep over the Oilers that effectively won them the Pacific Division and earned them home-ice advantage, the Canucks are underdogs to the Oilers (like the Rangers in their series with the Hurricanes).

Edmonton's elite offense is more attractive to bettors, and the Oilers are rightly perceived as the more legitimate contender after five straight trips to the playoffs during the Connor McDavid era. But anything can happen in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, especially with the X-factors this series provides.

Let's continue to use the tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, goaltending) to break it all down.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances

Oilers vs. Canucks

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

Breaking the recipe for SNIPES down further, the Oilers' power play is the headliner. Edmonton figuratively giggled at Los Angeles' second-ranked regular-season penalty kill, going 9-for-20 in the first round.

The Predators scored on their first man advantage of the series, but the Canucks allowed one power-play goal the rest of the way (the semi-controversial tying goal in Game 5). Vancouver "limited" the Oilers to 25% in four regular-season games.

Goaltending matchup

There's a lot to unpack with goaltending in this series.

Stuart Skinner stole a pivotal Game 4 against the Kings, saving 2.6 goals above expected. That performance came despite largely mediocre play, as evidenced by his minus-0.13 GSAx for the series. Given the choice, the Oilers may take one win per series that's entirely attributed to their goalie, trusting their offense to win the other three.

Then there are the Canucks, who had three goalies register a win over the Predators, including rookie Arturs Silovs' shutout in Game 6 in Nashville (3.39 GSAx). Silovs has earned the first game against Edmonton, with the possibility of Thatcher Demko (the most reliable goaltender on either side) returning at any point still uncertain.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

Vancouver rated 6% above Nashville - considered an average NHL team - in Round 1. Meanwhile, the Oilers were 50-50 with the Kings at even strength, suggesting they were on par with a team rated 15% above average.

Best bet

Here are prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

You'll notice that odds in the betting market fall within the parameters of these valuable prices to bet, meaning the series and Game 1 are fairly priced, especially if you apply a small downgrade to Vancouver for not having Demko. At +220, theScore Bet offers odds long enough to back the Canucks as underdogs.

If it's Silovs versus Skinner, both have shown holes and the capability to steal a game. Rick Tocchet will drill into Vancouver that taking penalties isn't an option (though getting 37% of the power plays in Round 1 with over 50% of the even-strength expected goals was unusual).

What isn't likely to be discussed much leading up to Tuesday's Game 1 is the Canucks' 3-for-54 even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate against Nashville. Nine HDC per game is a fine average, but converting at 5.5% is an outlier, personified by Elias Pettersson's struggles.

Edmonton's surely a Stanley Cup contender, but not because of its defensive acumen. If Vancouver can convert HDCs at its usual rate (14%), four more goals may be at its disposal. And if Vancouver can kill a modest 75% of Edmonton power plays, that's four fewer goals for Edmonton, and an upset seems more palatable.

Of course, just because there's a valuable number available on the underdog doesn't mean you have to take the bet. However, its existence means there's value in derivative markets. I have the Canucks at -104 to cover a +1.5 series game line, so finding a plus price in that market is the conservative way to attack.

Best bet: Canucks +1.5 games (+115)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Here's all you need to know about the difference between regular-season standings and team ratings in a bona fide marketplace:

• The Rangers won the Presidents' Trophy, and then swept the Capitals.
• For that results-oriented success, which produced home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs, New York is a second-round underdog against the Hurricanes.

Let's dig into why that's the case, continuing to use tools we've sharpened leading up to the postseason (even-strength play, skating talent, and goaltending) to break it all down.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances

Hurricanes vs. Rangers

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

Going into the playoffs, we hoped difference-makers Andrei Svechnikov, Jake Guentzel, and Seth Jarvis would help increase the Hurricanes' scoring efficiency from past playoffs. Sure enough, their SNIPES efficiency was 15.2% against the Islanders, going from below average (14.5%) to above. That trio combined for five goals and 16 points.

New York needed only the minimum to eliminate Washington despite its mediocre even-strength metrics carrying over to the postseason, with an xG share of 50.5%. New York generated only 22 high-danger chances at even strength and 16 power plays but scored nine times on 38 prime scoring opportunities (23.7% of SNIPES).

Defensively, Carolina's high-danger chances against (9.8) went up while the Rangers' average allowed came down (8.5).

Goaltending matchup

Igor Shesterkin was as advertised in Round 1, while Frederik Andersen - unlikely to maintain his late-season run - played above league average.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

The Rangers got through the first round on faith in Shesterkin and special teams that converted 6-of-16 power plays and killed 15-of-17 penalties. Meanwhile, Carolina's scientific plan to dominate at even strength carried it, as usual.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

If there was a hole in the Hurricanes' profile - like in years past when there were significant goaltending questions or their scoring efficiency continued to frustrate - we could punch a hole in their rating and claim value on New York.

Had the Rangers thoroughly dominated the Capitals - whose goalie, Charlie Lindgren (-3.72 GSAx), appeared out of gas after a semi-miraculous run to get into the playoffs - they might be worth backing.

In the end, New York doesn't have a notable rest advantage, and relying on special teams isn't enough to bet their short underdog price to win the series, especially considering how successful road teams are this postseason. Carolina is the rightful favorite and worth backing to advance to back-to-back conference finals and avenge a second-round loss in 2022.

Best bet:
- Hurricanes to win series (-165)
- Game 1: Hurricanes moneyline (-115)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

We've got one Game 7 on the books for this weekend, as the Maple Leafs found a rare playoff win at Scotiabank Arena to send their series back to Boston. Two more home teams have the chance to do the same on Friday.

Game 6: Canucks (+110) @ Predators (-130)

The Canucks' goaltending expectations have changed since the series began, going from "maybe our star netminder can steal us a game" to "just don't lose it for us."

In Game 2, Predators netminder Juuse Saros' goals saved above expected (GSAx) was an impressive 2.18. Second to that effort is Thatcher Demko's +0.8 GSAx in Game 1. Both of these performances prove that goaltending is not the reason that three of the five games in this series went under the goal total.

A quick glance at the scoresheet may make fans lament Vancouver's lack of shots on goal, but its low totals aren't due to limited attempts. The Preds are blocking shots and forcing the Canucks into various alternative strategies - and slap passes and backdoor attempts are failing. Vancouver has 10.07 expected goals at even strength but has only tallied seven in actuality. Given Saros's series-long 0.37 GSAx, those absent three goals aren't due to goaltending.

Meanwhile, Nashville has been offensively impotent, creating only 31 even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) in five games and two goals on 19 power plays. The Predators' defensive nature and the Canucks' failure to convert their HDC (2-of-46) have kept this series alive, even though Vancouver's replacements for Demko - Casey DeSmith (0.31 GSAx) and Arturs Silovs (-0.26 GSAx) - have merely kept things afloat.

Late three-tally explosions in Games 1 and 4 pushed the contests over their goal totals. This series should remain a low-event one, as the netminders only need to perform satisfactorily for Game 6 to stay under the total.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)

Game 6: Stars (-115) @ Golden Knights (-105)

With only 21 power plays through five games, this series is being played at five-on-five by two of the NHL's most disciplined teams.

After a catastrophic opening game (-2.2 GSAx) of the Stars' playoffs, Jake Oettinger battled back to push his GSAx back to average through the series, proving why Dallas was the best road team in the regular season. More importantly, the netminder shut off the Golden Knights' attack with no goals allowed in any third period.

Strangely, Vegas benched Logan Thompson (6.99 GSAx) - so far the top goaltender in the playoffs - in Game 5. Adin Hill was OK, but the Stars continued to outchance the Knights at even strength. The change in the crease screams of desperation from a coach looking to find a spark somewhere - which backfired.

The market opened with the Stars as a plus-money underdog before Game 3 and was bet to -110. Their moneyline opened at -115 before Game 4 and closed at -120. With three straight wins and no further adjustment to the price to back them, the Stars are again the side to back in Game 6.

Pick: Stars moneyline (-115)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

And then there was one ... game Thursday night.

The Maple Leafs surprised many and kept "Be-Leaf" alive in Boston in Game 5 with an overtime victory. Now they have to do what they haven't done in a while: win a home playoff game.

Game 6: Bruins (-110) @ Maple Leafs (-110)

If you're confused about what to expect for Game 6, join the club.

Luckily, with no shortage of intrigue, if you don't want to flip the coin on betting a game that's seen its odds hover around a true pick'em, this matchup should keep even the most casual observer engaged. Fluctuating moneyline prices, goalie changes, star unavailability, and four of five road winners have filled this series.

With all those elements thrown into the metaphorical pot, let's look at what's gone into the betting market's closing line for the home team in each game:

Everything mostly made sense in Games 1 and 2. After the Bruins' opening win, they got more credit ahead of the rematch. But that was tempered somewhat by a change from Jeremy Swayman to Linus Ullmark, as Boston kept to its goalie rotation. The Leafs rewarded those seeing the value in backing them against Ullmark as they tied the series 1-1.

A location shift from Boston to Toronto sent the Leafs' implied win probability (IWP) in the market from 44.4% to win Game 1 to 52.4% to win Game 3. During the regular season, an average consideration for home-ice advantage is 3.5% from neutral or 7% for home-to-road. Going to 8% for home ice wouldn't be a stretch in the playoffs.

What happened before Game 4 to send the Leafs from -110 as the opener to -130 as the closing moneyline?

A move from -110 to -130 suggests a 4% increase in IWP with William Nylander in the lineup. Readers of our regular-season betting guide will note that we omitted Nylander from our annual list of "the 4% Club" - the players who mean the most to the betting market. This is likely because Nylander played all 82 games in the last two regular seasons, so we haven't quantified his absence. Of course, the Leafs lost Game 4 somewhat embarrassingly, so 4% might be an overadjustment.

The scene shifted back to Boston for Tuesday's contest. The Bruins went from -135 (57.4% IWP) in Game 1 to -170 (63% IWP) in Game 5. What made the market think it was 5.6% more likely to win?

For starters, the sight of the Leafs' stars bickering on the bench while going down 3-1 in the series and a switch to backup goaltender Joseph Woll wiped out the positive vibes from Nylander's return. But more importantly:

Auston Matthews taking a morning skate sent the line down to -140, only to have it shoot back to -170 when that didn't appear to go well. That's a 5% shift in line with our midseason player value assessment.

Of course, the Leafs won Game 5 without their star sniper, but the underlying metrics aren't ideal. Boston had 13 even-strength high-danger chances to Toronto's five. Swayman (0.99 GSA/x) was good, but Woll (1.65 GSAx) was better. The former shouldn't result in a Bruins victory more often than not, and the latter seems hard to replicate.

What do -110/-110 odds mean for Game 6?

For the Leafs, it's the same price they could be bet at after a win in Boston in Game 2, but there's added uncertainty around Matthews' availability. If Matthews means 5% to Toronto (as the market suggested last game), the Leafs -130 (56.5% IWP) moneyline before Game 4 should be closer to -105 (51.5%) without him.

Maple Leafs -110 suggests Matthews won't suit up Thursday, so backing Toronto is viable for legitimate reasons: If he plays, you're holding a ticket at a valuable price. If he doesn't, the value is still near fair. There's also an illegitimate reason: After six straight playoff losses at Scotiabank Arena, the Leafs are due for a win at home.

If that's too much to fathom, Bruins -110 is a viable price to back Boston without Matthews. But if you wait and he's ruled in, the Bruins' odds will become more inviting, pricing them as an underdog with no guarantee Matthews can make the impact he usually does.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Two more teams were shown the door Tuesday. The Avalanche are the first Western Conference club to advance, and our first second-round series is set, with the Hurricanes taking on the Rangers. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs and Predators assured the hockey world there won't be a dark night on the NHL schedule this week.

Wednesday features the league's best chance for a seven-game series. The home team is still looking for its first victory in the Golden Knights-Stars matchup, while a Stanley Cup contender seems ready to join the list of squads for Round 2.

Game 5: Golden Knights (+135) @ Stars (-155)

The most fascinating series of the first round can be broken down as follows:

• Game 1: Jake Oettinger (minus-2.2 goals saved above expected) was terrible in an otherwise close game. Stars lose 4-3.
• Game 3: Stars dominate even strength (ES), 23-4 high-danger chances (HDC). The Stars win in overtime 3-2.

Games 2 and 4 were nearly identical to each other.

The last column is the difference-maker. Vegas scored on two high-danger chances in Game 2, but Dallas didn't and lost a contest that was tied late in the second period. However, the Stars converted once in Game 4 and won a matchup also tied late in the second period.

Games 2 and 4 were more competitive, but Dallas drove the play at a 65% rate across those matchups. That's particularly notable since two of the regular season's least penalized teams are rarely putting each other on the power play in this series.

If you equate play-driving percentage to a moneyline, the Stars' 65% rate would be just shy of -200. While we'll never see Game 1's price of -130 again, -155 is still a valuable bet on Dallas snapping the road team's streak.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-155)

Game 5: Kings (+165) @ Oilers (-195)

Who's to blame for Game 4's rare under in a Kings-Oilers playoff matchup?

That's a question worth asking after a streak of three straight overs to start the series was snapped with Sunday's 1-0 Oilers win. It's especially worth considering since Edmonton and L.A. have combined for six-plus goals in 10 of the last 13 playoff games between them.

Strangely, given that the Kings were shut out, the blame rests on the Oilers for a low-scoring Game 4. Edmonton mustered just four even-strength high-danger chances. And while the team's lone goal was on the power play, it drew just one opportunity on the man advantage.

Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner was also at fault. With 2.6 GSAx, Skinner backstopped Edmonton in a game in which Los Angeles should win 76% of the time. It was a well-timed outlier performance by Skinner, given that he posted a minus-2.15 GSAx over the first three contests. What version of him should we expect in Game 5?

David Rittich was an improvement from Cam Talbot (minus-3.08 GSAx in the series) for the Kings but was still replacement-level in Game 4 (minus-0.06). Going forward, we should expect average goaltending for both sides.

If the Oilers get back to their customary offensive production, more penalties will get called than the two in Game 4, and the Kings should finally score their first power-play goal in the series. This matchup should return to its offensive ways, especially if Edmonton, as expected, has a lead late and the Kings are compelled to pull the goalie earlier than usual.

Best bet: Over 6.5 (+105)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

During each round of the playoffs, we eventually reach the "housekeeping" portion of the program. Since betting isn't done in a vacuum, we should acknowledge the positions we've previously created in each series to maintain responsible betting practices.

In our Eastern Conference series preview, we played the Hurricanes to beat the Islanders in -1.5 games. With that bet in tow - and two chances for it to cash with series wins of either 4-1 or 4-2 - why would we add a risky -250 moneyline price on the Hurricanes, or bet against ourselves with the Isles?

As for the Western Conference, it certainly wasn't smooth. Then again, we didn't know the Canucks would need three different goalies to get the 3-1 lead we figured they might be good enough to have before Game 5 in Vancouver. We don't have two chances to win a bet here, like with the Canes, but the Canucks are priced at -120 to win a bet we have at +275 odds, plus an in-series bet made at 1-1. It's hard to complain about holding those tickets, regardless of the result.

That leaves two other Tuesday matchups, and we'll apply similar bankroll management logic while working through the handicap for a pair of Game 5s.

Game 5: Maple Leafs (+140) @ Bruins (-165)

We had faith in the Maple Leafs, thinking they could win this series, and if they did, it likely wouldn't happen in Boston in Game 7, so why not take Toronto -1.5 games at a better payout? If you told me Toronto would have the even-strength advantage through four games - 37-26 in high-danger chances and 8.36-7.81 in expected goals - I'd assume the Leafs were at least knotted up at 2-2.

Those numbers - and previous shorter moneylines (+125 and +135) in Boston - suggest there's value on Toronto here. However, that implies full health for Toronto's star players, a willingness to battle, and some strategic or mental edge.

The truth? Without an already sunk cost in the series market, there's no reason to keep be-leaf-in'. The Bruins' moneyline of -165 suggests a 62.3% chance Boston puts Toronto out of its misery. This number seems low based on how the wheels have come off the Maple Leafs, and is definitely low if Auston Matthews can't participate at 100%.

The Bruins haven't been lucky - an 11.5% high-danger chance conversion rate is below the league average. Boston's special-teams advantage isn't likely to be magically flipped either. What should be another turbulent offseason in Toronto starts Wednesday.

Best bet: Bruins moneyline (-165)

Game 5: Avalanche (-125) @ Jets (+105)

While they haven't officially crashed and burned, even the most optimistic Jets bettor can see the writing on the wall. Outside of an atrocious Game 1 from Alexandar Georgiev that gifted Winnipeg a win, it's been a literal avalanche since.

If you ignore the Avalanche's special-teams advantage, they've still driven 59% of even-strength play. Giving Winnipeg a 3.5% bump for home ice would get us to the 55.6% implied win probability the Avs' -125 moneyline suggests. Then apply Colorado's 40% power-play efficiency and a goaltending matchup closer than we ever thought possible, and you're more likely to find value in betting this series to end.

Best bet: Avalanche moneyline (-125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.