Like testing the waters of a bubbling hot tub, we're dipping our toe back into the NHL season. While we're at peak levels of uncertainty these days, it's still worth wading through the cloudy picture of the daily schedule to project the moneylines for the games this week - with the obvious caveat that the rosters can change quite literally at any time.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Two weeks ago, we posted my 2021-22 season ratings that use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering the forced and longer-than-usual break the NHL had over the holidays, we'll use an even 50-50 split between those ratings and the pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager. Also, I have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise. So if you notice a big discrepancy, make sure to do a quick search for any major lineup issues for the team you want to bet on.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

That escalated quickly. With the NHL on pause over the holidays, we have an opportunity to catch our breath and evaluate where teams stand through the first third of the season.

I've rated each team based on analytics I value, which are heavily weighted toward even-strength play and therefore don't account for factors like injuries or illnesses. I then use the ratings to create my weekly projected moneylines, as explained here.

The following ratings measure a team's strength relative to average, which holds a rating of 1.00. The greater the number, the stronger the team.

The Panthers have played the best hockey this season and can be considered 17% better than an average team, despite being three points behind the Hurricanes for first in the NHL standings. At 18-11 on the moneyline, Florida has played better than its betting record indicates.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Canadiens are the worst-rated team at 19% below league average. This isn't a shock if you've bet on the Habs, as they're 7-24 on the moneyline.

The Kings are the biggest surprise. With their 14-11-5 record, they're on pace to surpass their projected 84 points. If they keep performing - and win more in overtime - they can be even more profitable on the moneyline.

The Islanders are the biggest disappointments relative to the point total market. However, the Isles may have an excuse for their 8-18 moneyline record: They started the season with an extended road trip while awaiting a move to their new arena.

We can use these ratings, along with our preseason priors, to create a predictive model that'll help us make positive expected value bets for the remainder of the season.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Maybe the head coach matters? Perhaps not always from an Xs and Os standpoint, but at the very least, cleaning house midway through the season seems to grab players' attention. That appears to be what's happening with the Canucks.

Vancouver opened the season 8-17 on the moneyline, with an even-strength xG share of 47.89% and an even-worse 45.18 HDCF% at five-on-five, fifth-worst in the NHL.

Since bringing in Bruce Boudreau to replace Travis Green, the Canucks are 4-0, with a 51.78 xG% and a 52.17 HDCF% at even strength.

Is there a way to account for that predictively? Honestly, other than blind faith, no, there isn't. If you thought the Canucks were 10% more likely to win these games before they were played, you would have bet them and cashed four times last week. However, the Flyers are 2-2 since letting go of Alain Vigneault, and the Canadiens haven't won since cleaning out their front office. In the end, it's all just educated guessing, but if you want to build in a 10% probability bump for a week the next time a head coach gets whacked, it's hard for me to argue.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to rate each team. I've also made adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly a third of the season played, we can say goodbye to last season's metrics and are now just using pre-season priors via the regular-season point-total markets (60%) and what the teams have done on the ice this season (40%).

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be a worthwhile wager.

This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, or in the case of the Flames this week, games could even be postponed.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Back to life. Back to reality.

While the number of star players returning to NHL rosters last week probably wasn't the focus of Soul II Soul's hit song, it should have had hockey fans doing some '90s-style dancing. Meanwhile, I was just happy that I no longer had to make educated guesses about how much Nathan MacKinnon, Jack Hughes, Drew Doughty, and Max Pacioretty mean to any game's win probability.

Of course, it can't all be so simple, as Aleksander Barkov is still listed as out and various day-to-day injuries abound with the Colorado Avalanche, among other teams.

The recipe

Before the season, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to rate each team. I've also made adjustments for injuries to key players.

With roughly 30% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Dec. 6:

We're pulling away from last season's advanced metrics, for reasons exemplified by a pair of eastern Canadian teams: the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators. Relying on last season's numbers makes them look better than they really are.

However, the regular-season point total markets painted a different picture, as hope for a step forward for Ottawa wasn't reflected in its 76.5-point projection. Meanwhile, despite the Canadiens' run to the Stanley Cup Final, their missing pieces tempered expectations, which led to an 89.5-point projection. In hindsight, even that looks too high.

Both teams are among the worst in my statistical ratings this season, and the longer that continues, the more my rating is legitimized.

The cheat sheet

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games that I have projected near a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to be worthwhile wager.

This chart is a good reference to determine whether you're truly getting value betting on one side or the other. However, keep in mind that new injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

How much does one player matter? It depends on the team. Sidney Crosby is not replaceable for even one game with the lack of depth on the Pittsburgh Penguins, whereas the Florida Panthers are better equipped to absorb the absence of Aleksander Barkov. While a long-term Barkov injury would hurt the Panthers, Florida can cover for him in one game. Don't overpay for a great player's absence from a great team.

The recipe

We provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win-total markets, and last season's advanced stats to create a rating for each team. (I make adjustments for injuries to key players.)

With roughly 13% of the season played, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Nov. 8:

Last season's advanced metrics act as a baseline so we don't overreact to a good start. Aren't you glad you didn't start wildly betting on the Sabres after a few wins to begin the season? The Avalanche are sixth in the Central Division. Do we think that's a sign of things to come? No.

Next, we use the regular-season point-total market to account for our assessment of these teams before the campaign. We all had the chance to bet the under on the Montreal Canadiens' season point total, and not enough of us did to move the number lower. So let's not overreact to their slow start.

Lastly, we use the games we've seen so far this season. What happens on the ice now does matter, but 11 games isn't a predictive sample size. No one is tattooing the Panthers and Oilers for a Stanley Cup Final matchup, are they?

The cheat sheet

The following is a lookahead to a week's worth of games. Bettors and content creators alike throw around "value" as a buzzword, but what does that actually mean for you?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet.

*Reflects price without Sidney Crosby (Out due to COVID-19 as of this writing)

If you're looking at betting a game this week, refer to this chart to see whether or not you're truly getting value with one side or the other. New injuries or lineup issues will naturally arise, but this is a good reference point for identifying an attractive price for the side you like.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

In point-spread betting, we pay -110 on either side. We're taught early in our betting careers that we need to hit 53% to be profitable at that price, which is 3% better than breaking even.

When betting moneylines, as we do in hockey, it's more difficult to establish how to be 3% better with prices on the move. Hitting 53% isn't going to do you any good if you play favorites of more than -110 on average. On the other hand, if your bets average out to a +150 moneyline price, hitting 43% would be more than enough to be profitable.

It didn't quite match the twists and turns of an Elmore Leonard crime novel, but we provided a three-chapter series before the season on how to use the regular-season point total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

Less than two weeks of hockey have been played since then. I've taken the advanced stats I value most from those games, the market rating for regular-season win total markets, and last season's advanced stats to create a rating for each team. Also, if there's an injury to a key player that was previously unaccounted for, I'll make those adjustments.

With roughly six games played per team, here's how I'm weighing those three factors as of Oct. 25th:

We need a baseline for what these teams have done in the past, which is why 35% comes from last season. The Avalanche didn't just throw a bunch of guys together three weeks ago, meaning last season's body of work matters.

Many teams have changed since last year, and the perception of those changes is built into the rating taken from the regular-season point total markets before the year.

Since we don't want to overreact to a few games, this season's results carry the least weight right now. For example, we don't want to believe too much in the Sabres' early success or the poor starts by teams like the Islanders, Golden Knights, Canadiens, and Lightning. Each Monday, we'll tweak the weighting to gradually place more importance on what's happened this season.

The Cheat Sheet

The following is a lookahead to a week's worth of games. It includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price that I would need to bet on either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet.

Last Tips

Things like new injuries or appearances by backup goaltenders can skew these games, which is why you have to apply your own discerning opinion on whether or not to make a bet. However, don't be shy to back a heavy underdog or lay a big price on a favorite if you find a price that's profitable long term.

With lines opening the night before, you may see no edge on either side. But lines often change enough to offer value by the time the puck drops 24 hours later. You might also see value with the opener, only to see it change with a big move before puck drop. You can then decide if you're happy with the closing line value from your first bet or - if you think it's an overreaction - whether to bet the other way.

I recommend grabbing value where you can the night before and then checking back for any overadjustments.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

If you're going to bet on one position group in hockey while hoping for predictable consistency, it would be literally any other market than goaltenders. There hasn't been a back-to-back Vezina winner since Martin Brodeur, who turns 50 next year.

To make things harder to predict, there are just 32 voters. They're the NHL's general managers, who spend the whole season worrying about their own teams and then are asked to pick the league's top goalie.

Here's how the oddsboard shapes up prior to the 2021-22 season:

(Only players with 40-1 odds or shorter are listed)

Who usually wins?

Let's take a look back to 2008 at the age of the goalie when they won, their team's point percentage that season, and their goals saved above average (GSAA) the year prior to winning.

Marc-Andre Fleury's win last year - in addition to Thomas and Brodeur taking the honor - pull the average age for a winner up. But the key takeaway is there have been both young and old winners.

Connor Hellebuyck is the outlier as far as team performance goes. Every other goaltender listed played for a club that finished with a points percentage above 60% and was at least a 99-point team.

Lastly, a netminder doesn't need to play well the season prior. There are a few negative GSAA seasons listed, and a few more single-digit ones.

Which is why the Vezina Trophy market is difficult to predict. Still, here are three netminders worth backing this season:

Robin Lehner +1600

Lehner is a physical monster who turned 30 this summer, and he's got the net to himself for the first time in his career. He's also starting for a Stanley Cup contender, and the Golden Knights' defensive infrastructure factored into Fleury's Vezina-winning season.

Vegas gave Lehner a vote of confidence while shipping Fleury to Chicago. The team no doubt hopes he can return to his pre-pandemic form when the Swede claimed the starting job with the league's seventh-best GSAA.

Thatcher Demko +1700

Demko has also been handed sole possession of the crease. The Canucks' absurd move to make him split time with Braden Holtby last year never made sense. While the season was a complete disaster on many levels for Vancouver, Demko followed his epic playoff run in the bubble with the eighth-best GSAA.

Now he should receive close to 60 starts, and the Canucks might be able to reach the 99-point threshold if they get everyone signed and healthy for the first time since last summer. Demko would get a ton of credit if the team reaches that mark, especially after stealing playoff games in 2020 to initially get on NHL radars.

Juuse Saros +2400

While last year's stats aren't nearly the perfect predictor, the 26-year-old Nashville Predator was the league's best goaltender starting in mid-February.

Like the aforementioned two goalies, there was a veteran (Pekka Rinne) stealing starts from Saros. Following a rough three-game stretch during the first week of February - in which he allowed 15 goals over three games - Saros went on a ridiculous run, posting a .940 save percentage and a 1.90 goals-against average over the rest of the season.

Saros single-handedly dragged the Predators into the playoffs, and then he finished among the top five in Vezina voting. Now he'll get a chance to do it again for a full season with Rinne retired.

If he does, Saros will win the award this time around.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Last week, we broke down how you can use a sportsbook's regular-season win-total markets as a starting point for creating your own team ratings. If you're not quite ready for the pop quiz, don't worry. We're still a ways away from formulating our own ratings, but at least we know how sportsbooks value those teams. If you disagree, good news: You can bet on it!

Before you bet on regular-season games, though, we need to factor in the missing piece of how moneylines are made - home-ice advantage.

Applying standard home-ice advantage to moneylines

Since last year was such a mess, with teams allowing different numbers of spectators, I'm not using the 2021 season to calculate home-ice advantage. Instead, I'm using the two seasons pre-pandemic, during which home teams were 1,260-1,094. That means that, on average, home teams are 3.5% more likely to win, and teams on the road are 3.5% less likely to win.

The Chicago Blackhawks' and Calgary Flames' point totals are currently lined within a point of each other in the middle of the league. They're nearly equally average, so they're a good matchup to use as an example.

The Flames' win probability is 50.5%, so the fair price for Blackhawks versus Flames on neutral ice is: CGY -102/CHI +102

Multiply the 3.5% advantage for home ice with the Flames' 50.5% win probability and we get 54%. So the fair price with the Blackhawks in Calgary would be CHI +139/CGY -139.

When the scene shifts to Chicago, and we add 3.5% to the Hawks' 49.5% neutral win probability to get to 53%, a fair price becomes: CGY +132/CHI -132.

As we discussed last week, sportsbooks then add their hold to the line, creating a straddle that would look like something like this:

It means different things for different teams

But wait, there's more! Not every team has the same home-ice advantage.

Here are five notable teams when it comes to their home-ice advantage and their records on the moneyline:

The Avs are rated highest in the league, but what makes them such heavy favorites when they play at home has little to do with them playing better in Denver. They play really well everywhere, so there shouldn't be much change to their valuation based on where the game is.

The Maple Leafs won't appear much on the list of my best bets this year, and they never have - they're routinely overvalued in the market. However, they are very similar to Colorado in their home/road symmetry. So why would we give them any extra value when they're playing in Toronto in their typical Saturday night slot?

On the flip side, people think the Bruins are a lock to win any time they play at home ... and they're kind of right. Boston is a different team at home, proving you can't just blindly assign the same home-ice value for every team. While it'd be excessive to assume the Bruins will continue to have an 11.8% advantage at TD Garden, they should get a much bigger bump than the standard 3.5% swing.

We used the Blackhawks in the first instalment of this series because they represent the average NHL team according to the point total markets. They also have an almost exactly league-average home-ice advantage in the two seasons pre-pandemic.

Finally, while we used the Coyotes as an example of a bad team in our last class, I'll use the markets' fourth-worst team here. The Senators are a pet project for me this season, as their finish to the 2021 season provides some hope. For the purposes of this article, however, the fact they're 22.2% more likely to win at home than on the road as a below-average team offers an important reminder: A team can be bad and still have a big home-ice advantage relative to its neutral-ice state.

Next Monday, we put it all together, taking what we know about making moneylines and home-ice advantage and applying it to our own ratings to find some value this season.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.