If there's one axiom we've tried to push in this space, it's "You just never know."

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more impressive back-to-back result than what the Detroit Red Wings pulled off Tuesday and Wednesday. It was also the most unlikely.

The Wings (+160) were gracious hosts when, after six straight losses, they spotted the Bruins a pair of first-period goals at Little Caesars Arena.

But to say the Red Wings flipped a switch and ran the Bruins off the ice would be disingenuous. Although Detroit scored the next four goals on the way to a 5-3 skid-snapping victory, the star of the game was goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic, who made 47 saves.

It's easy to write that off as a hot goaltender stealing a win, and with the Red Wings playing in Winnipeg the next night, the schedule spot seemed problematic. That was reflected in their +230 moneyline price, which was only a 6% value on our +175 fair-price projection.

Seven points out of a playoff spot with 12 games to go, the Jets should be desperate. Perhaps that narrative caused the small overcorrection in valuation.

The Jets were probably the better team in terms of creating scoring chances, but it was Thomas Greiss' turn to backstop the Red Wings to victory. While the score was 3-1, the expected goals suggested a slight edge to the Jets. At the big moneyline payout, win or lose, Detroit was a good bet. The hard part was ignoring the factors that would convince you not to make it.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 8

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if our team ratings don't account for something - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Every team has its price - whether it's to bet on or against. That said, you're going to have to make a very convincing argument to get me to fade the Florida Panthers.

Maybe that argument is that they've found themselves facing seemingly insurmountable deficits twice in the last week. Unfortunately for anyone brave enough to step in front of the Cats' wagon, they surmounted both. Down 6-2 in New Jersey through two periods, the Panthers scored four times in the third frame to force overtime and an eventual 7-6 win. Then on Tuesday night, they came back from 5-1 down to beat the Maple Leafs in overtime.

It's the highest compliment to the Panthers that - when down by four goals to a team as good as Toronto - they were deemed to have as high as a 5% win probability in some metrics. Florida's proven that you'll need to watch all 60 minutes (or more) of its games, as no deficit is safe for its opponents.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 7

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

"Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in," Michael Corleone said in "The Godfather Part III."

The famous quote reflects how value-based NHL bettors must feel about a handful of teams that seem ready to lose interest but score a surprising win every once in a while as they play out the string.

After a rough stretch for underdogs last week, this past weekend saw them bark back. Few would have much interest in backing the Canadiens (+260) at the Lightning on Saturday night or the Coyotes (+170), Flyers (+240), and Kraken (+135) on Sunday.

It just goes to show that you can't give up on a cohort of teams that had a rough March. The Coyotes had a six-game losing streak last month but still managed profitability, keeping this group near even on your betting ledger.

Betting on the four worst teams in the league would have resulted in a 22-34 record on the moneyline but just a marginal loss. Four days into April, this collective is 4-4 with a net profit of 4.25 units to the positive. Whether you're actually on the team or merely betting on the team, there's nothing fun about losing. But like a high-end Zamboni, the moneyline odds are there to smooth out the playing surface.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 6

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

For the third straight year, the Stanley Cup Playoffs will start later than hockey fans are accustomed to. With the calendar's turn to April still leaving a month's worth of play, let's lay out our predictive power ratings for all 32 teams.

In order to read the power ratings, the first step is understanding that an average team would be 1.0. A club with a 1.16 rating, for example, is 16% better than an average team, while a club with a .82 rating is 18% worse. All ratings are an indication of what to expect from a club going forward and have nothing to do with its record in the standings.

The Panthers lead the way despite being second in the overall standings, but there's more intrigue down the list. The Rangers have gotten Vezina-quality goaltending from Igor Shesterkin, which has driven their placement in the standings. However, that's more difficult to sustain than quality team play.

The Hurricanes have gotten similarly great goaltending from Frederik Andersen. They also banked points early in the season to augment their place in the standings. On the flip side, the Islanders had a horrific start, but their rating here indicates they're better than their record.

The Oilers are rated much higher than their mediocre standing this season. Bet on Connor McDavid and Co. like a middle-of-the-pack team at your own risk. The Devils are also rated higher than their record, though they're on a different tier. New Jersey is closer to mediocre despite being in the bottom six. A strong finish is there for the Devils if they bring the effort required to compete this month.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

With the calendar turning to April, this season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel, and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team that's more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near-coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by the market. From there, compile a list of wagers. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A philosophical question to ponder before your hockey betting this weekend: If every game goes to overtime, should anyone be a favorite or an underdog?

We may hyperbolize about every contest needing complimentary hockey to find a winner, but three more valuable underdogs sat drawn with their opponent at the end of regulation Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of them lost in overtime or the shootout.

The short-term variance of 3-on-3 and the breakaway competition is supposed to benefit a bettor getting a plus-money price. However, as it occasionally can, the sample size has bit our guide's valuable side nine straight times - a fact that sounds like a cruel April Fools' Day prank.

The Sabres themselves have lost three games in extra time in the last week alone, only broken up by their amazing comeback win over the Blackhawks. Does that mean Buffalo shouldn't be a bet at an average price of better than +180? Of course not. The fact that the Sabres continuously play in games that could go either way proves they are a valuable bet at such a good payout - even if the result is sub-optimal for a young team that has refused to lay down late in the season.

It's never easy to chalk things up to variance - a fancier term for luck. However, studies have shown that there's very little correlation between a team's record in regulation and its record in 3-on-3 overtime and the shootout. The best bettors can do is continue to put themselves in position to win over the long-term, and getting plus-money bets into overtime is one way to do that.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Friday, April 1

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves have created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Intrepid Flames bettors got a good price in their game against the Avalanche on Tuesday night - if they got to it fast enough. The Flames opened as short favorites, but by the time the puck dropped at the Saddledome, they were as high as -145 on the moneyline.

The reason for that was simple. Nathan MacKinnon was announced as a scratch that morning, which sent the Avalanche from +100 to +125. When we take those moneylines and convert them to implied win probabilities, the Avs go from 50% to win the game to 44.4%.

Instantly, we know how the market values one of the best players in the game - the Avalanche are deemed 5.6% less likely to win when MacKinnon is out. Whether you believe that's too high or low is up to you as a bettor, as you decide which side to back.

You might think 5.6% is an insult to a player of MacKinnon's stature. I might suggest that it's a compliment to the depth of Colorado, that missing a top-five player in the league would only hurt its chances of winning by less than 6%. Losing someone like MacKinnon for a game would matter more to a team that wasn't capable of making up for his absence.

The Avalanche were 12-3 (80%) on the moneyline in 15 games without MacKinnon before Tuesday night's contest in Calgary. Meanwhile, they are 34-17 with him - a 66% win rate. No one is suggesting that the Avalanche are better without MacKinnon. It's a small sample size that's causing high variance. However, looking at it this way allows us to understand that a 5% adjustment is appropriate.

As far as one game goes, the Avs overcame the absence for a tight 2-1 win. That shouldn't change how the market views Colorado, but we'll need to be on our toes about whether MacKinnon plays against the Sharks on Thursday. At least we know now what to expect from a line adjustment if he doesn't.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Thursday, March 31

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

You don't need an elaborate study to understand that traveling on a back-to-back impacts a team's win probability in the second game. All you need is a semi-reliable rating on a team and oddsmakers will tell you how much they adjust for the scheduling spot.

In this space, a 5% downgrade in win probability is how we adjust for a team playing on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Whether that manifests itself on a game-to-game basis is something of an unanswerable question. Players and coaches might mention its effect after a loss, but when they win a game in that same spot, there's no need for excuses.

How does travel affect a game? A logical case can be made that it's hard to get the legs going at the beginning, putting a team at a disadvantage early. It's equally logical to argue that it's the third period when players might find themselves more tired than usual.

That brings us to the Sabres-Blackhawks game in Chicago on Monday night. Based on the example from Monday's guide, Chicago was worth a bet at -163 or shorter as we gave it a 63% chance to beat Buffalo, which played in New York on Sunday.

The consensus moneyline for the Blackhawks was -150, which triggered a bet, and with a 4-0 Hawks lead early in the second period, that bet seemed safe. The Sabres could have easily chalked it up as a schedule loss. Instead, they pulled off arguably the biggest comeback of the entire season by scoring with just shy of 11 seconds left for a 6-5 win.

Since the Sabres are usually undervalued, their +130 price on the moneyline suggests it didn't account for a scheduling disadvantage. Buffalo played two previous back-to-backs in March with polar opposite results - a 1-0 win at red-hot Calgary, and a 6-1 loss to Florida on a home back-to-back.

Does the Sabres' youth make them more capable than the average team of overcoming the scheduling disadvantage? Or are the Blackhawks just that incapable? Those are some of the questions that Chicago backers never would have thought to ask 22 minutes into Monday night's game.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For bigger underdogs, you may decide on a higher cutoff like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Wednesday, March 30

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something isn't accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

There's one rule to live by when it comes to grading your wagers in the wild world of NHL betting: If you bet on an underdog of more than a modest price, and that team finds itself in the near-coin flip of three-on-three overtime or a shootout, you've made a good bet regardless of the outcome.

Whether your 'dog got there by playing evenly with a more-heralded opponent or on the back of a hot goaltender, you got what you wanted when you made the bet. A +150 or better moneyline suggests you've bought something that has a 40% or worse chance of happening. If the game plays out closer to 50/50, you got a good deal.

So, we can take solace that the four valuable underdogs (Sabres, Blue Jackets, Senators, and Sabres again) that went past regulation this past weekend lost, including two in the shootout.

Despite the setback, our exercise in value-betting the NHL is still up almost 30 units since the post-All-Star break roster stabilization that came when COVID-19 testing policies were relaxed. With great success comes greater demand, and eventually greater supply. So, our once-weekly guide now becomes semi-daily.

How to use the guide

In this space, you'll find my fair price on the matchups before the sportsbook adds the vig (true moneyline), and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side, a day in advance. With a particular day's lines opening the night before, the idea is to be able to jump on a valuable bet before the line adjusts.

For example, Monday's games opened Sunday night. A guide for those contests, would look like this:

Compare the "Price to bet" column with the prices offered by your various sportsbooks. From there, you'd compile a list of bets. The only reason to not make a bet would be if there was something that wouldn't be accounted for in how we've rated teams - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do not bet list."

For example, the Capitals opened at +116 at home to the Hurricanes, but that line has dropped as of Monday morning. This matchup rates out to the truest of 50/50 games, so Capitals +110 would be worth a bet, barring new information.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to compare the price of your opening bet to its current price to give you an idea of how much closing line value you may be getting.

Since many of these bets will be plus-money, you won't need to win at even a 50% rate to be profitable. However, you will need a little better luck after regulation, to take advantage of those valuable coin flip situations. Over the long term, the better the price you get, the more profit you'll accumulate.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this elastic campaign with a still relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

The cheat sheet

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold. For for bigger underdogs, you may want a bigger cutoff like 6-7%. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager.

Tuesday, March 29

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

There were a lot of bags packed and Ubers to the airport ready to go Monday. The NHL trade deadline came and went with veterans Marc-Andre Fleury and Mark Giordano as the big buys, while general managers bid wildly for Rickard Rakell, Artturi Lehkonen, and Marcus Johansson.

Did the buzz of the deadline have anything to do with favorites going 4-0 on Monday? We may never know. However, when the dust settled, our collection of valuable bets stormed back for an epic week. The Sharks, Sabres, Canucks, Flyers, and Senators all won at +200 or better.

Meanwhile, if you found the widely available prices on the Kings (-120 vs. the Predators), Bruins (-110 vs. the Lightning), and Golden Knights (-115 vs. Nashville), you took advantage of the continuing run of rare valuable favorites on our list.

Whether Monday's acquisitions are what created an overreaction in the market - or whether we can attribute success to random variance - remains to be seen. However, the highs and lows of betting on hockey remain the same, even if a few players of varying degrees of impact change locations and colors.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

We're due for a tweak to our formula following the deadline. We'll take this opportunity to move this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 80% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this elastic campaign. Of course, we still have a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

The stabilization of rosters at the All-Star break has meant that underdogs, or teams that aren't favored by enough, are now priced that way due to less quantifiable reasons, like public perception or short-term variance.

The cheat sheet

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

What home ice is worth is a tough enough question, but it becomes even more of a guessing game when the contest is being played at a neutral site in the middle of a CFL field. The Buffalo Sabres were the host team in Sunday's Heritage Classic despite playing in the home country of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Did it matter in the end, though? They beat the Leafs anyway.

As for our bi-weekly list of moneyline prices we'd be willing to bet, underdogs were the order of the day Sunday as we went 5-1 for better than seven units.

The Montreal Canadiens, tantalizingly priced throughout this season, were overvalued when they opened as favorites to the Seattle Kraken. Sure enough, the Kraken came away with the win, penalizing anyone getting overly excited about the Habs' recent run of good play.

Elsewhere, the Penguins, Islanders (twice), Devils, and Canucks joined the ranks of rare valuable favorites in the past three days. The first three won in that role. Vancouver didn't.

Finally, the market's souring on the Oilers caused them to again find their way onto our betting card. For the second straight time, Edmonton rewarded its backers with a win as a home underdog, this time against the Lightning. However, the Oilers' foray into underrated territory might have come and gone.

Strangely, there's just one game on the board for Monday night - a fairly priced barn burner between the Coyotes and the Senators. But with three more weeknights of games, there'll be other opportunities to find value. A night off never hurt anyone.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

We made a small adjustment to our formula last week, moving this season's on-ice predictive metrics to 75% of our total rating. While our ratings are weighted to this season, basing 25% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to place more emphasis on team metrics without going all-in on what's happened this campaign. That's important because this season is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

The stabilization of rosters at the All-Star break has meant that underdogs, or favorites that aren't favored by enough, are priced that way because of less quantifiable reasons, like public perception or short-term variance. So, it shouldn't be a surprise that our guide is up nearly 30 units despite a 66-80 record. A 45.2% win rate is just fine when the vast majority of plays are on plus-money pups.

The cheat sheet

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. On games I've projected to be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make it a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% for without travel.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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