Last week, we discussed how to determine the game-to-game value of a star player like Nathan MacKinnon relative to the moneyline, at least as it pertains to the betting market. There was an 11% moneyline adjustment in the first two games the Avalanche played without MacKinnon. Colorado lost both, but there was an interesting reaction last week.

The betting market seemed to either forget that MacKinnon was out or didn't care.

Here are our projected moneylines with and without MacKinnon for three games from Dec. 11-16:

That disparity in pricing came from oddsmakers no longer taxing the Avs for missing MacKinnon, along with captain Gabriel Landeskog. The previous two games, where there was an 11% shift, were against good teams: the Bruins and Rangers. The Blues, Flyers, and Sabres aren't currently in the playoff picture, so maybe it was deemed that Colorado didn't need its star power to win those games.

Sure enough, the Avalanche won two of three, with a loss to the Sabres (+160) mitigating the overall win for Colorado bettors. But a slightly deeper look at the results paints a different picture.

The Avalanche were nine seconds away from losing to the Blues, but it was a remaining star that saved the day. Mikko Rantanen tied the game with the goalie pulled and then won it in overtime.

Two days later, Colorado was a massive favorite to lowly Philadelphia, despite the Flyers having beaten the Avs a week earlier. That might have been due to Philly sitting star goaltender Carter Hart. With backup netminder Felix Sandstrom only able to stop 22 of 25 shots, the Avalanche edged the Flyers 3-2. In the loss, Philadelphia had more expected goals (XG) and high-danger chances created at five-on-five.

Those willing to keep firing against the MacKinnon-less Avs were finally rewarded when the Sabres upset Colorado, though the Avs were the better team at even strength with a 71% XG share.

With MacKinnon out another two-to-four weeks, it's anyone's guess how his absence will, and should, be treated by the betting market.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Early this season, we tried to determine how much Aaron Ekblad affected the Panthers' win probability in any given game. The market being slow to downgrade the Panthers without Ekblad, who averages over 24 minutes per game, led to a profitable stretch of betting against Florida.

Last Monday, another Stanley Cup contender got bad injury news when the Avalanche's Nathan MacKinnon suffered an upper body injury that will keep him out for four weeks. So how do we determine how much a star like MacKinnon matters to moneyline prices and Colorado's implied win probability?

The Avs' next game came against the red-hot Bruins in Colorado. Our rating on each team has been really solid, only occasionally finding value backing or fading each team. As a result, with MacKinnon, the line was going to look something like Bruins -115 / Avalanche -105.

With MacKinnon announced out, the line opened Bruins -160/Avalanche +140, and eventually closed Bruins -175/Avalanche +150. This gives us our first look at what the betting market thinks of the Avalanche's chances to win a game without their star forward:

That's an 11% change in win probability with MacKinnon out. The Avalanche lost that game 4-0 to Boston, getting dominated at even strength.

Next up, the Rangers visited Denver on Friday and we projected a fair moneyline of +109/-109, so a line of Rangers +100/Avalanche -120 would be expected. Instead, New York was lined at -150 and Colorado +130. Let's look at the difference in implied win probability:

Look at that. Another 11% adjustment without MacKinnon, and a loss to the Rangers.

Basically, it took two games for us to find out what effect a missing MacKinnon has on Colorado's chances to win on a game-to-game basis. If the Avalanche continue to get dominated, though, we'll have to adjust them down, and if they rally without their star forward, we can lower "The MacKinnon Effect" from 11%.

The recipe

We started the campaign using regular-season point totals as a baseline for rating teams since it's still our best measurement. Throughout the campaign, we'll adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records (which can be skewed by outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events).

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Every hockey fan knows any NHL team can win on any given night. The league's parity is part of the draw, especially come playoff time. So, it's hard to wrap your head around the idea of a team being 90% likely to win a postseason series.

History is littered with big first-round upsets and even more near-misses. In 2018, the Capitals lost the first two games at home and found themselves in overtime in Game 3 against Sergei Bobrovsky and the Columbus Blue Jackets. They survived OT, won the next three games, and went on to win their first Stanley Cup after being inches away from doom.

If the Caps had lost that first series, their playoff ineptitude of the last three seasons would be viewed as part of a decade of postseason failure.

By virtually all metrics, the Panthers were the NHL's best team this season, which might've been more predictable if it weren't for their first-round series loss a year ago. Florida faced its in-state rival and outplayed the eventual Stanley Cup champions at even strength throughout the six-game matchup. However, the Lightning's power play, and the struggles of Panthers goaltender Bobrovsky, proved too much to overcome.

With the starting job in question this season, Bobrovsky showed up ready to compete. Of all the playoff goaltenders, the Panthers' big investment in the summer of 2019 has the seventh-best goals saved above expectation (GSAx) at even strength.

Series Odds

Projected prices

Hopefully, you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season and what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength-centric metrics like expected goals and high-danger chance rates, as well as high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict who'll play better in the postseason.

Due to the special circumstances of the season, which includes some tainted results from before the All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, we'll make use of a formula to factor in home ice that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.

True moneylines

The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.

The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in Florida (Games 1, 2, 5, and 7), and Washington (Games 3, 4, and 6).

Price to bet

In the regular season, we needed at least a 4% edge on an underdog and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:

If nothing else, these numbers should provide a warning against betting on the Capitals in any way, shape, or form. Whether you want to lay a big price on backing the Panthers is up to you, but value exists whether there's a plus or minus sign in the odds.

Derivative market

There's value in this matchup in an "earlier the better" strategy. A Panthers sweep is available at +500, and a 4-1 finish is +290. After that, it becomes -EV to bet on the series. You can capture both by backing Florida on the series spread of -2.5 at +150.

Best bet

The series price for the Panthers opened at -280, but the market agreed with me that it was too short. Now up to -320, and having been as high as -390, the edge is still in the double digits. It's just a matter of whether you're willing to risk the big price in a league with a long history of big surprises.

The Capitals have no real home-ice advantage and a pedestrian power play despite the presence of Alex Ovechkin. Their even-strength metrics are subpar, even considering a better-than-average high-danger chance conversion rate (17.9%) post-All-Star break.

Washington is the only team in the playoffs that I've rated below average after weighting for play after the break. Florida has just enough experience and a clean bill of health, so there's no reason why the Panthers won't make quick work of the Capitals in Round 1.

Pick: Panthers series -1.5 (-150)

Panthers series -2.5 (+150)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Almost two years ago in the bubble, the Hurricanes had the Bruins on the ropes, but weren't able to score enough to send Boston home. Last year, Carolina found itself in a second-round matchup with the Lightning, but couldn't solve Andrei Vasilevskiy to force a Game 7. Will the issue crop up again in a rematch with the Bruins?

When we're looking for a valuable bet in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the first question is: "What have you done for me lately?"

The Bruins are my highest-rated team after the All-Star break, a cohort that's particularly important (more details below). Only four other playoff teams improved in the second half over their season-long rating. The Hurricanes were one of them, but not to Boston's degree.

If the Canes are carrying baggage from the last two postseasons, they can't be thrilled to face a team that improved steadily the way Boston did. The Bruins are a wild-card team in more ways than one - they won 26 games at home and 25 on the road this season.

Series Odds

Projected prices

Hopefully you used our NHL betting guide to evaluate your bets during the regular season, and to find what value truly means in hockey. For the playoffs, we're using even-strength metrics like expected goals, high-danger chance rates, and high-danger conversion rates - both for and against - to try to predict which team will play better playoff hockey.

Due to special circumstances during the season, which included some tainted results pre-All-Star break when COVID-19 ravaged lineups, we're weighing the second half more than we normally would. Lastly, we'll make use of a formula to factor in home ice that includes each team's moneyline win percentage with the league average win probability differential.

True moneylines

The true moneyline takes the implied win probability for each team and converts it to an inverted price for each side before the sportsbook takes its vig on a bet.

The following is the expected price for each side when the games are played in Carolina (Game 1, 2, 5, and 7), and in Boston (Game 3, 4, and 6).

Price to bet

In the regular season, we'd need at least a 4% edge on an underdog, and a 1% edge for the favorite. Using that same threshold, here are the prices to bet for each scenario:

The identical game and series prices imply a 50-50 coin flip of a matchup, and should this go to a seventh game in Carolina, maybe that's the case. However, the Bruins' ability to play on the road, along with a hostile atmosphere in Boston, suggests going the distance might be tough for the Hurricanes.

Derivative market

Unless you get extremely fortunate with the inevitable overtime games that are going to come in any matchup between close teams, a sweep is hard to pull off. The Bruins are only 9.7% likely to put the brooms to Carolina, but at 12-1, there's value if you want to shoot your shot. Slightly more conservatively, the Bruins to win 4-1 at +650 has some value as well.

Best bet

The Bruins got clipped by the Islanders last year, but the pieces are all still there. The 18 skaters will need to take the pressure off the Bruins' inexperience in net. They've shown they can, allowing only 8.89 even-strength high-danger chances per 60 minutes since the All-Star break. That will make life easier for either Jeremy Swayman or Linus Ullmark.

Carolina's lack of size on the defensive end is going to be tested to keep Frederik Andersen clean, and the longer the series goes, the more it moves in Boston's favor.

There's not much in the way of value in the first game, but since the Bruins start on the road, grabbing that big price on a sweep is all I'll do for Game 1. A win in Raleigh puts everything in play. On the back end of the series, if the Bruins have a 3-2 lead heading home for Game 6, it's curtains for Carolina.

Pick: Bruins to win series (-105 or better)

Bruins -1.5 (+160 or better)

Bruins sweep (+1200 or better)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Mercifully, we've reached the last week of the regular season. With just a handful of games left and less at stake, the goal for many teams with Stanley Cup aspirations is to stay healthy.

Intrepid bettors need to be aware in the final week of who's in the lineup on a nightly basis and who starts in goal. While it's tough for many teams to decipher who the better netminder is earlier in the campaign, we now have enough data to form a clearer picture.

After nearly a full season of results and with help from Evolvinghockey.com, the following are the squads with the biggest statistical drop-off from one goaltender to another by goals saved above expected (GSAx) and the team's record on the moneyline with each goalie in net (as of games played on April 23).

*Will not be participating in 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs

When betting these teams in the final week, there should be a consideration for who's starting. The Islanders, Blues, Panthers, and perhaps the Kings all might have been surprised by who their best goaltender was this season, despite L.A. having a better record in Cal Peterson's starts.

Meanwhile, a half-dozen playoff-caliber clubs don't have much statistical difference between netminders should one start over the other.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Tuesday, April 26

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The moneyline underdog drought ended Monday night, and much of the NHL betting community rejoiced.

After 22 straight games over the weekend without winning, three moneyline 'dogs cashed a ticket: the Devils (versus the Golden Knights), the Capitals (against the Avalanche), and the Canucks (versus the Stars).

But not every underdog was a winner Monday. Both the Blackhawks and Coyotes failed to beat the respective favorites in the Flames and Hurricanes.

Parsing out who's going to pull off the upset is the difference between betting for value and truly handicapping the teams.

After more than a full year of tumult, the Canucks are finally focused, healthy, and they have the right head coach. The talent on the roster, and their interest in playing "playoff hockey," has manifested itself in a six-game winning streak, leaving them two points out of a postseason spot with six contests to go. Winning a home game against the Stars - a team that's less successful on the road - should've been more expected than the price suggested.

The Devils (+260) beat the Golden Knights as a larger underdog than the Blackhawks were to the Flames (-270). But ask anyone in Vegas about the Golden Knights' season so far, or listen to clips from Peter DeBoer - there are cracks in the armor. Meanwhile, the Devils are a team that our metrics suggest is better than its record.

As for the Blackhawks, they're 1-9 on the moneyline in their last 10 games, so it's not like there should've been much hope against a Flames team that's rolled through the latter half of the season. Similarly, after a nice run in March, the Coyotes are 2-8 on the moneyline, so there was little reason to back them against the Hurricanes. Meanwhile, as highly regarded as the Avalanche are, the Capitals are a playoff team that has a much better record on the road (24-13) than at home (19-20).

The NHL betting guide exists to understand how pricing works, and to measure the true value in a game. However, you can find an extra edge by putting in more work and showing discipline in your betting, as well as knowing what's going on with each team inside and out, like you would your favorite team.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 90% of our total rating. Basing 10% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold and may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games that I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 20

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the market's prices. From there, compile a list of wagers. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if any line movements created value that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Upsets in the NHL pop up all the time - by nature, when you least expect it.

On Tuesday, the Sabres beat the Maple Leafs as +350 underdogs. It wasn't the first time Buffalo got the best of Toronto; it was actually their third straight victory in the QEW rivalry. In our opening-line guide earlier this week, we found 12% value on Buffalo, which was in line with what the market was bearing before their previous matchups.

On Thursday night, the pricing for one game jumps off the board. The Devils make their lone visit to Denver to take on the Avalanche in a meeting between two teams that have had opposite results relative to their play this season.

The following table provides the five-on-five expected goals (xG), both for and against, for each team (according to Evolving-Hockey). We'll contrast that with their overall moneyline record and goal differential.

There's nothing particularly strange about the Avalanche, though their five-on-five expected goal share per 60 minutes is eighth in the NHL. That's relatively low for a team atop the standings with a 72.2% moneyline win percentage.

The Devils' goal differential and moneyline record suggest they're bad, but they've created more expected goals than expected goals against, which is the fundamental aim of any hockey team. Three main issues could be sinking them in the standings:

• Their skaters are unusually bad at converting scoring chances
• Their goaltenders are unusually bad at stopping scoring chances
• Their special teams are a nightmare

The Devils have converted 100 of their 731 high-danger scoring chances for a 13.6% conversion rate, which is right around average. However, New Jersey's opponents have one more goal (101) on even-strength high-danger scoring chances in just 582 such opportunities. That 17.4% scoring rate for the opponent is horrendous, and it lands squarely on the shoulders of a group of Devils goalies that's stopping just 89.7% of full-strength shots.

Lastly, while the Devils' penalty kill has been average, a 16.6% conversion rate on the power play (27th in the NHL) isn't helping their cause.

Our projected moneyline is based largely on the consistency of even-strength outputs. In a one-game sample size, the Devils have a chance to reward the theoretical value, as they did when they beat the Avalanche at home in March as +180 underdogs. However, with seven different Devils netminders all failing when given an opportunity, it takes extra optimism to believe New Jersey can avoid a landslide against the Avalanche on Thursday night.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Thursday, April 14

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Rangers and Flyers meet Wednesday night, with each team playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Flyers will have played in Washington, while the Rangers will have hosted the Hurricanes. Although Philadelphia is the host, both teams will have an element of overnight travel going into the game. That should cancel out the marginal adjustment we make for teams playing back-to-back games.

The next variable we use to make our own moneylines is home-ice advantage. While we rely on a larger sample size to calculate that, let's take a glance at what each team has done at home versus on the road this season.

Based on this season's results, the Rangers are 8% less likely to win a road game, while the Flyers are 7% more likely to win at home.

In a neutral situation, the Flyers' season-long metrics suggest they're closer to the Rangers than we'd think. However, we know better, having followed the two teams this campaign.

The Flyers have gotten progressively worse throughout the season, recording just four wins since dealing their captain, Claude Giroux. Between the pipes, Carter Hart (minus-1.5) and Martin Jones (minus-5.5) have been subpar in goals saved above average.

Conversely, the Rangers have ridden the back of Vezina-favorite Igor Shesterkin (35.5 GSAA) to a 34-14 moneyline record in his starts.

The key element in pricing this game relates to its back-to-back nature - but not due to rest. Instead, with the Rangers facing another playoff team in the Hurricanes on Tuesday night, they're likely to play Shesterkin at home and then go with backup goaltender Alexandar Georgiev (12-11 on the moneyline this season) in Philadelphia.

By the time moneyline prices open Tuesday night, we'll know who's in net for New York and have a better idea of how likely it is Philadelphia repeats what it managed to do April 3 - beat the Rangers.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 85% of our total rating. Basing 15% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 13

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Two weeks remain in the NHL season, and the entire Eastern Conference is playing out the string with a 15-point gap between the final playoff team and the first team out. How that great divide will affect games between now and April 29 is anyone's guess, so bettors should tread lightly.

Meanwhile, things are heating up out west. With eight points separating six teams fighting for the wild card spots, it won't just be bettors keeping an eye on scoreboards. Tuesday night's feature in the wild Western Conference is a matchup between the Golden Knights and Canucks.

The Canucks took three out of four available points in a home-and-home with Vegas earlier in April and have won three straight to bolster their playoff hopes. However, the Golden Knights are 7-3 on the moneyline in their last 10 games.

Before even looking at the metrics, the situation and the way these two teams are fighting to climb the standings suggest a game that could go either way and should be priced as something of a coin flip.

The Canucks will continue a sweep-able homestand after Tuesday's matchup, while the Golden Knights will carry on to Alberta for games against better teams. What happens during this section of the schedule will drastically affect both clubs' playoff hopes. On Tuesday night, with each side needing to amplify its play from regular season to "playoff hockey," we'll get a strong indication if bettors can find value trusting or fading these two teams going forward.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Tuesday, April 12

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if our team ratings don't account for something - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

After what'll be a busy weekend in the NHL, we'll have an opportunity to evaluate how our bets do Monday, with just one game on the slate. Most astute bettors track their wins and losses to see how they do over the long term, which isn't the same as evaluating bets.

The two Canadian franchises in the Original Six went on the road Thursday night and found victory, albeit in different ways.

The Toronto Maple Leafs went to Dallas and outshot the Stars 41-18. Social media buzzed about Auston Matthews having more shots on goal than the entire Dallas team at one point. The Stars forced overtime, which Matthews won during three-on-three play. If you didn't know any better - or if you still swear by 1990s "metrics" - you'd think the Leafs dominated and should have won handily.

An evaluation of the advanced metrics suggests that their narrow win was a fairer result based on expected goals.

Meanwhile, the Montreal Canadiens went to New Jersey and racked up a season-high seven goals in a 7-4 win. Regardless of whether you look at the old-school shots-on-goal tally or peek into the advanced metrics, the play on the ice suggests a different story.

Aside from a few goaltenders having career years, there isn't much separating most goalies on a game-to-game basis. Juuse Saros is seventh in the NHL with a save percentage of 92.07. Jake Allen is 29th with 90.6%. That 1.47% gap equates to less than half a goal per game.

Andrew Hammond got his second start for the Devils - against the team that gave him his first start in three years earlier this season. He's 98th in save percentage this season out of 107 goaltenders who've seen the crease.

The Devils' skaters and bettors deserved better, but when a team starts a goaltender who isn't NHL quality, this type of thing can happen. Coincidentally, the New Jersey heads to Dallas on Saturday. Who the Devils have between the pipes will matter more than usual.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet on each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2022 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.