The Stars, in their typical fashion, rallied after getting blitzed in the first period to win Game 3 in Edmonton, setting up what feels like a must-win Game 4 for the Oilers. The effort highlighted the value of individual players on both teams.

Game 4: Stars (+110) @ Oilers (-130)

The price for Game 3 was +110, and we bet on Dallas knowing that we were slightly outside of our pre-series parameters for backing the Stars in Edmonton. We'd play them again, knowing what we know about their ability to rally from slow starts and how well they play on the road.

There's a Stars-related inefficiency in the market, though, particularly in Conn Smythe Trophy betting. Dallas' odds of winning the Stanley Cup improved after winning Game 3, and Miro Heiskanen's Conn Smythe odds went from +1400 to just +750.

Jake Oettinger's odds moved to +250, making him the current Conn Smythe favorite. He's getting a lot of credit for the Stars' success, even though his analytics place him below netminders who have previously been named the playoff MVP.

But reviews of Heiskanen's play are also glowing. He went over 240 minutes without being on the ice for an opposing goal. Jason Robertson needed a hat trick to tie the Dallas defenseman in postseason goals and take a one-point lead over him in team scoring.

Heiskanen's empty-net goal wasn't crucial, but another tally helps make the Conn Smythe case for a player who's been dominant on both ends of the ice.

Best bet: Miro Heiskanen - Conn Smythe Trophy (+750)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Not many players consistently attempt a handful of shots in every playoff contest. That's what Kane brings to the table right now.

He's cleared this line in four of the past five games, only failing last time out because he missed the net on three of five attempts.

Kane's attempted at least five shots in six consecutive outings. For perspective, he recorded three-plus shots in 73% of his contests this season when attempting five or more. That success rate jumps to 79% when focusing on home games in which he reached that mark.

We saw a dip in Kane's usage against the Canucks, but his ice time against the Stars has gotten back to the levels we're used to seeing and then some. He's played 18 minutes or more in three straight appearances, giving him ample opportunity to generate shots - even against a stingy Stars defense.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Rangers did it again Sunday.

New York improved to 4-0 in overtime during this postseason thanks to goals by Barclay Goodrow and Alex Wennberg, who are both bottom-six forwards.

The Rangers haven't been the better team in this series by even-strength metrics - expected goals share and high-danger chances. Of course, they rarely are, and this is causing consternation among the bettor community as we look ahead to Game 4.

Game 4: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-170)

The theory among sharp hockey bettors is that creating more chances and dominating play at even strength (which, in turn, should generate more power plays) gives a team a better chance to win. It's a sensible concept, except the Rangers do two things that fly in the face of that logic.

The Rangers feature a group of dangerous scorers - Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, and Vincent Trocheck - who registered 46.5% of the team's shots on goal in the regular season and 61% in the playoffs. Those players contributed to an above-average 15% scoring rate on even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) plus power-play opportunities - a metric we call SNIPES.

The Rangers also have Igor Shesterkin, who has saved New York 11.5 goals above expected this postseason after closing the season with a 16.7 GSAx following the All-Star break.

Those elements can make up the difference against a team with an advantage in xG%. It helped New York that Sergei Bobrovsky allowed over three goals more than expected in Game 3, but heading into Game 2, we felt like backing Shesterkin to be the better goaltender was worth it at an underdog price.

The market hasn't changed its opinion, keeping the respective moneylines the same as before Game 3, likely due to the Panthers' 69.2% xG share and a 12-6 HDC advantage at even strength. However, the Rangers are likely to shrink that disparity. We'll stick with the underdog in a series where all three games so far could have gone either way.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (+145)

Mika Zibanejad: Under 2.5 shots

Zibanejad's shot volume has fallen through the floor of late. He recorded two or fewer shots in eight of the past 10 games, including two of three in this series. He managed to go over this line in Game 3 but did so by the skin of his teeth, mustering up only three shot attempts. Simply put, he found a way to hit the target in each contest, but that can't be relied upon.

Zibanejad's been completely ineffective at five-on-five. He has only three shots on goal in that game state through three games in this series. The Rangers have also been outshot 35-10 with Zibanejad on the ice at full strength and spend most of his shifts on their heels in the defensive zone.

Although that hasn't hurt the Rangers in terms of wins and losses, it has hurt Zibanejad's volume and should continue to do so.

Penalties tend to be called less frequently as a series progresses, and Zibanejad does a lot of his damage as a shooter on the man advantage. That's not a recipe for success.

Look for the Panthers to keep Zibanejad in check as a shooter in Game 4.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Rangers did it again Sunday.

New York improved to 4-0 in overtime during this postseason thanks to goals by Barclay Goodrow and Alex Wennberg, who are both bottom-six forwards.

The Rangers haven't been the better team in this series by even-strength metrics - expected goals share and high-danger chances. Of course, they rarely are, and this is causing consternation among the bettor community as we look ahead to Game 4.

Game 4: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-170)

The theory among sharp hockey bettors is that creating more chances and dominating play at even strength (which, in turn, should generate more power plays) gives a team a better chance to win. It's a sensible concept, except the Rangers do two things that fly in the face of that logic.

The Rangers feature a group of dangerous scorers - Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, and Vincent Trocheck - who registered 46.5% of the team's shots on goal in the regular season and 61% in the playoffs. Those players contributed to an above-average 15% scoring rate on even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) plus power-play opportunities - a metric we call SNIPES.

The Rangers also have Igor Shesterkin, who has saved New York 11.5 goals above expected this postseason after closing the season with a 16.7 GSAx following the All-Star break.

Those elements can make up the difference against a team with an advantage in xG%. It helped New York that Sergei Bobrovsky allowed over three goals more than expected in Game 3, but heading into Game 2, we felt like backing Shesterkin to be the better goaltender was worth it at an underdog price.

The market hasn't changed its opinion, keeping the respective moneylines the same as before Game 3, likely due to the Panthers' 69.2% xG share and a 12-6 HDC advantage at even strength. However, the Rangers are likely to shrink that disparity. We'll stick with the underdog in a series where all three games so far could have gone either way.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (+145)

Mika Zibanejad: Under 2.5 shots

Zibanejad's shot volume has fallen through the floor of late. He recorded two or fewer shots in eight of the past 10 games, including two of three in this series. He managed to go over this line in Game 3 but did so by the skin of his teeth, mustering up only three shot attempts. Simply put, he found a way to hit the target in each contest, but that can't be relied upon.

Zibanejad's been completely ineffective at five-on-five. He has only three shots on goal in that game state through three games in this series. The Rangers have also been outshot 35-10 with Zibanejad on the ice at full strength and spend most of his shifts on their heels in the defensive zone.

Although that hasn't hurt the Rangers in terms of wins and losses, it has hurt Zibanejad's volume and should continue to do so.

Penalties tend to be called less frequently as a series progresses, and Zibanejad does a lot of his damage as a shooter on the man advantage. That's not a recipe for success.

Look for the Panthers to keep Zibanejad in check as a shooter in Game 4.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Rangers did it again Sunday.

New York improved to 4-0 in overtime during this postseason thanks to goals by Barclay Goodrow and Alex Wennberg, who are both bottom-six forwards.

The Rangers haven't been the better team in this series by even-strength metrics - expected goals share and high-danger chances. Of course, they rarely are, and this is causing consternation among the bettor community as we look ahead to Game 4.

Game 4: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-170)

The theory among sharp hockey bettors is that creating more chances and dominating play at even strength (which, in turn, should generate more power plays) gives a team a better chance to win. It's a sensible concept, except the Rangers do two things that fly in the face of that logic.

The Rangers feature a group of dangerous scorers - Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, and Vincent Trocheck - who registered 46.5% of the team's shots on goal in the regular season and 61% in the playoffs. Those players contributed to an above-average 15% scoring rate on even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) plus power-play opportunities - a metric we call SNIPES.

The Rangers also have Igor Shesterkin, who has saved New York 11.5 goals above expected this postseason after closing the season with a 16.7 GSAx following the All-Star break.

Those elements can make up the difference against a team with an advantage in xG%. It helped New York that Sergei Bobrovsky allowed over three goals more than expected in Game 3, but heading into Game 2, we felt like backing Shesterkin to be the better goaltender was worth it at an underdog price.

The market hasn't changed its opinion, keeping the respective moneylines the same as before Game 3, likely due to the Panthers' 69.2% xG share and a 12-6 HDC advantage at even strength. However, the Rangers are likely to shrink that disparity. We'll stick with the underdog in a series where all three games so far could have gone either way.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (+145)

Mika Zibanejad: Under 2.5 shots

Zibanejad's shot volume has fallen through the floor of late. He recorded two or fewer shots in eight of the past 10 games, including two of three in this series. He managed to go over this line in Game 3 but did so by the skin of his teeth, mustering up only three shot attempts. Simply put, he found a way to hit the target in each contest, but that can't be relied upon.

Zibanejad's been completely ineffective at five-on-five. He has only three shots on goal in that game state through three games in this series. The Rangers have also been outshot 35-10 with Zibanejad on the ice at full strength and spend most of his shifts on their heels in the defensive zone.

Although that hasn't hurt the Rangers in terms of wins and losses, it has hurt Zibanejad's volume and should continue to do so.

Penalties tend to be called less frequently as a series progresses, and Zibanejad does a lot of his damage as a shooter on the man advantage. That's not a recipe for success.

Look for the Panthers to keep Zibanejad in check as a shooter in Game 4.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Rangers did it again Sunday.

New York improved to 4-0 in overtime during this postseason thanks to goals by Barclay Goodrow and Alex Wennberg, who are both bottom-six forwards.

The Rangers haven't been the better team in this series by even-strength metrics - expected goals share and high-danger chances. Of course, they rarely are, and this is causing consternation among the bettor community as we look ahead to Game 4.

Game 4: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-170)

The theory among sharp hockey bettors is that creating more chances and dominating play at even strength (which, in turn, should generate more power plays) gives a team a better chance to win. It's a sensible concept, except the Rangers do two things that fly in the face of that logic.

The Rangers feature a group of dangerous scorers - Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, and Vincent Trocheck - who registered 46.5% of the team's shots on goal in the regular season and 61% in the playoffs. Those players contributed to an above-average 15% scoring rate on even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) plus power-play opportunities - a metric we call SNIPES.

The Rangers also have Igor Shesterkin, who has saved New York 11.5 goals above expected this postseason after closing the season with a 16.7 GSAx following the All-Star break.

Those elements can make up the difference against a team with an advantage in xG%. It helped New York that Sergei Bobrovsky allowed over three goals more than expected in Game 3, but heading into Game 2, we felt like backing Shesterkin to be the better goaltender was worth it at an underdog price.

The market hasn't changed its opinion, keeping the respective moneylines the same as before Game 3, likely due to the Panthers' 69.2% xG share and a 12-6 HDC advantage at even strength. However, the Rangers are likely to shrink that disparity. We'll stick with the underdog in a series where all three games so far could have gone either way.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (+145)

Mika Zibanejad: Under 2.5 shots

Zibanejad's shot volume has fallen through the floor of late. He recorded two or fewer shots in eight of the past 10 games, including two of three in this series. He managed to go over this line in Game 3 but did so by the skin of his teeth, mustering up only three shot attempts. Simply put, he found a way to hit the target in each contest, but that can't be relied upon.

Zibanejad's been completely ineffective at five-on-five. He has only three shots on goal in that game state through three games in this series. The Rangers have also been outshot 35-10 with Zibanejad on the ice at full strength and spend most of his shifts on their heels in the defensive zone.

Although that hasn't hurt the Rangers in terms of wins and losses, it has hurt Zibanejad's volume and should continue to do so.

Penalties tend to be called less frequently as a series progresses, and Zibanejad does a lot of his damage as a shooter on the man advantage. That's not a recipe for success.

Look for the Panthers to keep Zibanejad in check as a shooter in Game 4.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Rangers did it again Sunday.

New York improved to 4-0 in overtime during this postseason thanks to goals by Barclay Goodrow and Alex Wennberg, who are both bottom-six forwards.

The Rangers haven't been the better team in this series by even-strength metrics - expected goals share and high-danger chances. Of course, they rarely are, and this is causing consternation among the bettor community as we look ahead to Game 4.

Game 4: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-170)

The theory among sharp hockey bettors is that creating more chances and dominating play at even strength (which, in turn, should generate more power plays) gives a team a better chance to win. It's a sensible concept, except the Rangers do two things that fly in the face of that logic.

The Rangers feature a group of dangerous scorers - Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafreniere, and Vincent Trocheck - who registered 46.5% of the team's shots on goal in the regular season and 61% in the playoffs. Those players contributed to an above-average 15% scoring rate on even-strength high-danger chances (HDC) plus power-play opportunities - a metric we call SNIPES.

The Rangers also have Igor Shesterkin, who has saved New York 11.5 goals above expected this postseason after closing the season with a 16.7 GSAx following the All-Star break.

Those elements can make up the difference against a team with an advantage in xG%. It helped New York that Sergei Bobrovsky allowed over three goals more than expected in Game 3, but heading into Game 2, we felt like backing Shesterkin to be the better goaltender was worth it at an underdog price.

The market hasn't changed its opinion, keeping the respective moneylines the same as before Game 3, likely due to the Panthers' 69.2% xG share and a 12-6 HDC advantage at even strength. However, the Rangers are likely to shrink that disparity. We'll stick with the underdog in a series where all three games so far could have gone either way.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (+145)

Mika Zibanejad: Under 2.5 shots

Zibanejad's shot volume has fallen through the floor of late. He recorded two or fewer shots in eight of the past 10 games, including two of three in this series. He managed to go over this line in Game 3 but did so by the skin of his teeth, mustering up only three shot attempts. Simply put, he found a way to hit the target in each contest, but that can't be relied upon.

Zibanejad's been completely ineffective at five-on-five. He has only three shots on goal in that game state through three games in this series. The Rangers have also been outshot 35-10 with Zibanejad on the ice at full strength and spend most of his shifts on their heels in the defensive zone.

Although that hasn't hurt the Rangers in terms of wins and losses, it has hurt Zibanejad's volume and should continue to do so.

Penalties tend to be called less frequently as a series progresses, and Zibanejad does a lot of his damage as a shooter on the man advantage. That's not a recipe for success.

Look for the Panthers to keep Zibanejad in check as a shooter in Game 4.

Odds: -140 (playable to -160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

After dropping Game 1 of the series, the Stars avoided heading to Edmonton down two games with a 3-1 victory Saturday night. The advantage traditionally swings to the road team that garnered an opening split, but Dallas' success away from home suggests otherwise. The Oilers, meanwhile, can argue they've been the better team so far.

Game 3: Stars (+110) @ Oilers (-130)

Looking at the first two games, the Oilers are carrying the lion's share of the play at even strength overall with an expected goal share (xG%) of 56.2% and 28 high-danger chances (HDC) to the Stars' 21. Edmonton dominated the first period of Game 2 with nine HDC and an 85% xG share. But the remaining six periods, including the first overtime of Game 1, show two teams that are essentially equal, and in the last two periods of Game 2, the Stars shuttered the Oilers' offense, limiting them to just three HDC and continuing to stay disciplined.

The Oilers are now at 20 consecutive penalty kills - a 20% power play should have scored four goals against Edmonton over the last six games - and no matter how you spread out those missing goals, there's little chance the Oilers would have survived the Canucks or won Game 1 without this stretch.

What if the Stars, who have a 24% power play during the regular season and playoffs, get 12 power plays over the next four games? Would the Oilers, due for regression, withstand the addition of three goals against?

The Oilers should want to play this series at five-on-five, but that supposedly favors the Stars, and two games shouldn't overwrite all the information we have coming into this series.

According to our series preview, our target price for the Stars' moneyline in games played in Edmonton is +115. However, that's a by-the-numbers valuation based on overall team strength that doesn't account for Dallas' excellence on the road. A 5-1 postseason mark has followed the Stars' league-best regular-season road record.

In the postseason, the Stars' home xG share is 50/50 with their opponent, which is partly why they're 4-5 at the American Airlines Center. However, they've boosted that to 59% on the road (up from a league-best 56% in the regular season).

The Stars are better on the road than at home, so a moneyline a shade below our technical target price is worth betting on the underdog.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (+110)

Evander Kane: Over 2.5 shots

Kane's shot volume is drastically improving after a very quiet start to the playoffs. He's recorded at least three shots in four consecutive games, attempting eight shots or more in three of them - including both contests in Dallas.

Although the Stars are one of the league's best shot-suppression teams, Kane has a remarkably strong track record against them.

Kane has faced the Stars five times this year, including the playoffs, and averaged 3.8 shots and more than eight attempts while clearing in four of those matchups.

The Stars have done a great job limiting Leon Draisaitl as a shooter, holding him to just three shot attempts in both games this series. They're taking away his time and space and forcing him to put the puck on the stick of his teammates, which is evidently benefiting Kane and his volume.

As an added bonus, Kane's season hit rate is 10% higher when playing on home ice.

Look for him to test Jake Oettinger a few times in Game 3.

Odds: -114 (playable to -130)

Wyatt Johnston: Over 2.5 shots

Johnston's a road warrior. He hit in eight of his past 10 away games while averaging 4.5 shots on 8.4 attempts. Those numbers are drastically better than his home totals (2.1 shots and 6.2 attempts) over the same span.

It's not abnormal to see such a gulf in Johnston's splits, as that's been the case with him all season long. He cleared this total in just 44% of his home games while posting an impressive 63% hit rate on the road.

Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz generally see the opposing team's best players, freeing up Johnston for easier matchups in which he takes full advantage.

Robertson was recently taken off Johnston's line - he centered Robertson and Logan Stankoven for a short stint - and Hintz is a possibility to return to the Stars' line in Game 3. Thus, Johnston should get less attention at five-on-five.

Odds: -140 (playable to -150)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

Monday's Game 4 took an unexpected turn before the puck even dropped at Colorado's Ball Arena. An Avalanche team expected to bounce back from two straight losses and even the series was now without its leading goal-scorer this postseason, Valeri Nichushkin, after he was suspended for six months for failing a drug test. To make matters worse, Devon Toews was also announced out with an illness.

As a result, Colorado closed as a pick 'em after being widely available at -140 (58.3% implied win probability). The Avs then fell behind after a lifeless period, continuing a trend that hasn't seen them lead in regulation this series.

Now Colorado faces elimination. What should we make of Wednesday's Game 5?

Game 5: Avalanche (+130) @ Stars (-150)

Since Dallas and Colorado both opened -140 as the home team in Games 5 and 4, respectively, we can infer that the market is still rating these two teams identically.

We didn't think they were equal before the series due to the Stars' even-strength metrics and superior goaltending, and there's little reason to believe that now. Dallas has 9.28 expected goals at even strength to Colorado's 6.12 since Game 1, when the Stars entered the series less than 48 hours after a Game 7 revenge win over Vegas.

Neither goaltender has played much better or worse than expected. That's more of a problem for Colorado, since it's likely either a bad game is coming for Alexandar Georgiev or a great one is coming for Jake Oettinger.

The Stars have played in five series since missing the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs, all of which have gone six games or more. They should have ample motivation not to take a wounded Avalanche group lightly and earn much-needed rest halfway through a postseason run.

With Nichushkin out, Toews' status up in the air, and the Stars' strong showing, it's no surprise that Dallas has garnered interest. The Stars have been pushed to -150 to close out the series, which is still below our target threshold of -170.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-150)

Nathan MacKinnon: Over 4.5 shots

MacKinnon let us down in Game 4, but the volume was as good as it gets. He attempted 12 shots in a losing effort but only got four on target.

MacKinnon's attempted 12 or more shots on 14 different occasions this season. Game 4 was the only time he failed to reach five shots.

I expect MacKinnon to hover around that mark again in Game 5. The Avalanche are playing for their season, so he should be heading for an absurdly large workload as long as the game is remotely close.

Valeri Nichushkin's absence could boost his volume as well. MacKinnon averaged 4.6 shots per game on 8.1 attempts with Nichushkin in the fold, going over his total just 36% of the time. He recorded 5.4 shots on 8.9 attempts without Nichushkin, with his hit rate soaring to 66%.

A lot will fall on MacKinnon's shoulders in this do-or-die game. Expect him to come through.

Odds: -102 (playable to -125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.