Both conference finals are guaranteed to see a Game 6, meaning we get a full weekend of hockey action. Whether that translates to a Game 7 or two is still to be determined, and given the knife's edge all of these games have teetered on, that proposition isn't worth betting. However, we continue to feel stronger about one side of the bracket than the other.

Game 5: Oilers (+110) @ Stars (-130)

Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET

To paraphrase "Rowdy" Roddy Piper, when it comes to betting hockey, just when we think we have the answer, the question changes. By expecting the Oilers' best effort in Game 4, we avoided a losing bet on the Stars, but how it played out was a twist. Dallas got a drastically different start than it's used to, jumping to an early 2-0 lead, only for the Oilers to storm back with five unanswered.

While Edmonton was the better team, scoring on three of just seven even-strength high-danger chances on Jake Oettinger is an outlier, and we would've expected more chance generation from the Oilers.

With the scene shifting back to Dallas and the series level, the expectation for Friday remains that the Stars' even-strength play will get better, Dallas should eventually score on the power play, and Oettinger will prove to be the difference after he produced a subpar minus-0.73 GSAx in Game 4.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (-130)

Game 6: Rangers (+145) @ Panthers (-175)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

Suppose this is the end of the line for the Rangers, who've survived on the age-old recipe of timely scoring and excellent goaltending. In that case, the blame will fall squarely on two players who account for roughly $20 million of New York's salary allotment, as Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad have gone scoreless in a series that's been essentially five one-goal games.

If converting a high rate of their relatively few scoring chances is the plan, when your best scorers don't produce at all, things fall apart, results become less predictable, and any value in betting the Rangers goes away.

With a 4.93 GSAx on the series - two expected goals saved more than Sergei Bobrovsky - Igor Shesterkin has held up his end of the bargain, which is why these games have been so close.

The Panthers needed a second try in elimination games for each of their previous two series, but the concerning part for the Rangers is that after a strong first period and taking the lead in Game 5, Florida had 10 more high-danger chances (15-5) at even strength in the final two periods.

Odds of -175 have always been a steep price to pay on Florida in a series that's been so close on the scoreboard, but there's no reason to chase a bet on the underdog. If anything, under 5.5 goals - a bet against the Rangers to generate offense and on Shesterkin to continue to stand tall - is interesting, but with that priced at -135, the juice may not be worth the squeeze. We're staying away from betting this game.

Game 6 (projected line): Stars (+110) @ Oilers (-130)

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET

Win or lose in Game 5, the Stars will be the play for Sunday's Game 6. On top of their excellent road resume outlined in this space throughout the playoffs, Dallas also owns an 8-4 record in series Games 5-7 over the last two seasons.

The Stars have been the underdog in both games in Edmonton, so we'll project that to be the case regardless of Friday's result, backing Dallas to either close out the Oilers or force a Game 7.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (Even money or better)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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Game 4 between the Rangers and Panthers looked a lot like Game 3.

Florida dominated even-strength play with over double the expected goals (xG) share. But Igor Shesterkin saved New York's bacon, turning aside a ton of shots and, in front of him, the team converted a good percentage of its high-danger chances. The matchup profiled like every Rangers game during these Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The main difference, of course, was that the Panthers were the team to score in overtime. The power-play game-winner came after a series of poor decisions and Blake Wheeler - playing for the first time all postseason and for just nine minutes Tuesday - not trusting Shesterkin to make a big save on a partial breakaway and taking a penalty early in OT.

Game 5: Panthers (-125) @ Rangers (+105)

After losing Games 2 and 3, Florida turned desperation into five-on-five dominance and got a great showing from Sergei Bobrovsky (0.44 goals saved above expected) in the fourth contest of the series to pull out a 3-2 victory.

The problem with backing the Panthers is that even their best effort leaves them with just two goals on 27 high-danger chances (HDC) against Shesterkin, who gave up a fluky goal in Game 4 to hurt his numbers after allowing four in Game 3. As the series shifts back to New York, it's possible we haven't seen his best.

Meanwhile, the Rangers continue to sit pretty after getting fewer chances and converting 5-of-19 even-strength HDC in the last three games and then hoping for the best in overtime.

Back in the Big Apple for Game 5, the market shifted its moneyline pricing to where it was for Games 1 and 2, lined at close to a pick'em. Those games were essentially square on the spreadsheet, with the Rangers' xG of 2.68 narrowly topping the Panthers' of 2.56, and Florida barely taking the high-danger chance category 20-19.

Given its struggles to pull away from New York with a considerable run-of-play advantage, an even game is dangerous for Florida. Especially with the Rangers' top snipers - Mika Zibanejad (8), Artemi Panarin (6), and Chris Kreider (4) - holding scoreless streaks that won't last forever.

Returning home after a loss, New York is worth a play at even-money or better.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (+105)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Road teams have a winning record in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, including a 16-8 mark in Round 2. All four teams closed out their series away from home, and three advanced despite losing Game 1.

Why is this relevant? Despite a small sample size, it suggests it's not worth panicking after dropping Game 1 or losing home-ice advantage. As we head into each Game 2, let's look at what happened in the series openers to analyze whether there was an outlier result or something predictive of things to come.

Game 2: Panthers (-110) @ Rangers (-110)

Friday, 8 p.m. ET

The premise for betting on the Rangers before Game 1 was that a +130 series price and an even-money Game 1 line suggested that these two teams weren't evenly matched. Here's how the even-strength metrics shook down in the opener:

A one-goal game masquerading as a 3-0 Panthers win was far closer than the score suggests. The difference was even clear via the eye test. Simply put, New York didn't convert either of its two breakaways, going 0-for-10 on its best scoring chances. Meanwhile, the Panthers merely converted one of their eight high-danger chances, which is congruent with the league average of 12.5%.

The market for Game 2 hasn't veered away from the pricing in Game 1, acknowledging that these games can go either way.

For the series, the Rangers went from +130 (43.5% implied win probability) to +250 and 28.6% likely to advance to the Stanley Cup Final.

In our look at the updated Conn Smythe Trophy market, we noted Sergei Bobrovsky's +2500 odds, and his need to boost his statistical profile. He made the difference in Game 1, posting a 3.08 goals saved above expected mark for a shutout.

With a clean slate for Game 2, we're more likely to pick Igor Shesterkin (0.5 GSAx in Game 1) if we had to guess who the more dominant goaltender would be. We should be pretty certain that Bobrovsky won't save 2.5 more goals above expected than the Rangers' star netminder. The expectation for a more even goaltending duel should favor New York to even the series.

Best bet: Rangers moneyline (-110)

Game 2: Oilers (+115) @ Stars (-135)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

The only surprise about the Stars dropping their seventh straight Game 1 is it meant the Oilers had to win a Game 1. Edmonton was 1-8 in series openers since 2020.

As we look at what's sustainable, we must acknowledge that Edmonton was the better team in Thursday night's double-overtime win. It had an edge in even-strength play and a penalty kill that has somehow surpassed its power play as its most impressive special teams unit.

The question is: Do we expect that to be sustainable? The Stars - and Jake Oettinger - have a history of getting better throughout a series.

The Stars will have to start taking more penalties than just a lone too-many-players call for the Oilers' power play to get more opportunities. Edmonton's consecutive penalty-kill streak will have to hit historic proportions instead of regressing to the mean.

The Stars' staunch defense pairing of Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell was on the ice for just two goals combined in their previous two series. They were minus-3 in Game 1. Are goals by Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Connor McDavid simply a result of them being a tougher matchup, or is this an outlier given the Golden Knights and Avalanche have strong scoring threats as well?

Stuart Skinner had one of his best games of the postseason, saving almost two goals above expected in Game 1. At the same time, Oettinger (0.58 GSAx) was largely average until momentarily saving the game with a highlight-reel stop against McDavid. Goaltending looked to be an advantage for the Stars, only to be the difference-maker for the Oilers in Game 1. That one-game result shouldn't be enough to change our overall opinion about the series.

The Rangers' chances to win their series dropped 15% in the betting market, while the Stars have gone from -130 (56.5%) to +160 (38.5%). Given Dallas was the favorite coming in and its track record of coming back, an 18% shift seems too drastic, as well.

Best bets:
- Game 2: Stars moneyline (-135)
- Stars win series (+160)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Many pre-playoff Conn Smythe candidates have been weeded out with the conference finals set to begin. Some interesting contenders remain in the Stanley Cup Playoffs' final four, but - like the championship market - there's no clear favorite.

Conn Smythe odds

With no runaway scorer or generational goaltending performance, there's almost no chance this year's Conn Smythe winner doesn't come from the champion. So, let's look at where the value lies for each team and their odds to win the Cup.

Rangers (+350)

The Rangers have five forwards within four points of each other. Artemi Panarin's (+2500) regular-season prowess has earned him enough respect to have the shortest odds of the group. Chris Kreider (+6000), who leads the league in power-play goals this postseason, is the value play. However, Igor Shesterkin's numbers (9.09 GSAx) compare to 2021 Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy. Shesterkin will have to continue that play for the underdog Rangers to win the Cup.

The drawback to backing Shesterkin (+450) is that his odds aren't far enough off from the Rangers' +350 odds to claim the title. That means you'd be taking on the risk that New York wins and one of its scorers steals the award in the next two rounds for minimal extra payout.

Panthers (+225)

We steered clear from backing any Panthers before the playoffs. Here's how their top candidates' odds have changed with Florida the Eastern Conference Final favorite:

There's still plenty of value on your Panther of choice. Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk have a small points lead on their teammates, but Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe are capable of getting plenty of big tallies as they're first and third, respectively, on Florida in playoff shots on goal. Sergei Bobrovsky needs to pick up his play significantly to reach the statistical threshold of past winning goaltenders.

Oilers (+280)

The question here will always be, "Can the Oilers win the Stanley Cup without Connor McDavid being their most valuable player?"

He's kept his teammates in contention with just two goals so far in the playoffs, but anyone watching Edmonton knows McDavid drives most of the team's offense with his playmaking and the attention he receives from the opposition. Unlike Shesterkin, McDavid's odds of +600 provide a considerable gap from his team's Stanley Cup odds of +280. He's worth another look as he'll have to up his production to upset the Stars and beat either Florida or New York.

Stars (+240)

Jake Oettinger is the favorite, but it's unlikely that a goalie with just a 3.05 GSAx through two rounds would be the main reason the Stars win the Stanley Cup. Dallas has eight forwards with six-plus points, but Miro Heiskanen is the standout candidate thanks to his team-leading 13 points.

Our pre-playoff bet on Heiskanen at 60-1 has aged nicely. His stellar play will get more attention as the lights shine brighter on the Stars.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

The Oilers escaped Vancouver with a Game 7 win, outlasting the shorthanded Canucks. Edmonton now has some questions to answer after that long series, and with a quick turnaround for the start of the Western Conference Final.

The Stars answered their own doubts in the last round against the Avalanche and will host Game 1 on Thursday.

Unlike the Eastern Conference Final, the team with home-ice advantage in this series is the favorite at a parallel price.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals + PP goals / HDC + PP chances

Oilers vs. Stars

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

The Oilers and Stars recorded similar regular-season numbers, but the playoffs tell a different story. Edmonton's SNIPES percentage is up to 17.8%, suggesting it's been a little lucky in converting quality scoring chances. That's even accounting for the Oilers going 1-for-10 on the power play to close Round 2.

Dallas has continued its brilliance in expected goals share (xG%) while playing against highly rated teams in Vegas and Colorado, leading the playoffs at 56% while having a below-average SNIPES percentage of 11.3%. That number should rise as the sample size grows.

Goaltending matchup

Dallas is set to face another suspect goaltender in Stuart Skinner, who was chased from the Canucks series. However, it seems the Oilers don't feel there's a viable alternative to Skinner and his -10.57 GSAx over the last two playoffs since they weren't willing to trust Calvin Pickard in an elimination game.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

Edmonton was rated better than Dallas for much of the season, which is why the Stars are only a short favorite despite having home ice and a rest advantage.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

Some sportsbooks opened at Stars -120. The market is leaning toward Dallas, pushing it further away from a textbook valuable bet. That said, our target price listed above doesn't account for the Stars' rest advantage, while the betting market does.

Our formula liked the Stars at any number against the Golden Knights and the Avalanche, and an 8-4 record at short prices has made them profitable.

Jake Oettinger's bad playoff moments have been few and far between, though his occasional poor games have led to losses. However, I'd rather sacrifice one game per series on a tough outing than back the team with a consistently subpar netminder.

Edmonton's supporting players finally got going late in Round 2, taking some pressure off Connor McDavid, whose usage was off the charts early on. Was 20 minutes of ice time in Game 7 a sign McDavid wore down? Just one goal - as he had against the Canucks - won't be enough to beat the Stars.

Dallas has outstanding metrics despite scoring on just 10 of its 137 even-strength high-danger chances. The Stars also have a league-best 5-1 road record this postseason. Throw in Peter DeBoer's perfect Game 7 resume, and there's little reason not to like Dallas at a short price for Game 1 and the series. Since they might face the lowest-rated team remaining in the playoffs - the Rangers - the Stars' odds are still long enough to make our first play on a Stanley Cup Champion.

Best bets:
- Game 1: Stars moneyline (-130)
- Stars to win series (-130)
- Stars to win Stanley Cup (+240)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

As usual, the Rangers' metrics didn't look great, but they toppled the Hurricanes in six games anyway. New York did it without fully sticking to its recipe, with just one power-play goal in the final four games and a below-average even-strength high-danger chance conversion rate of 11.5%. Yet again, the Presidents' Trophy winners are underdogs, as they face the reigning Eastern Conference-winning Panthers.

Advanced metrics glossary

• ES = Even strength
• xG% = Expected goals share
• HDCA/G = High-danger chances allowed per game
• GSAx/60 = Goals saved above expected per 60 minutes
• SNIPES = HDC goals plus PP goals / HDC plus PP chances

Panthers vs. Rangers

Tale of the tape

Converting scoring changes at a high rate and having above-average goaltending are crucial ingredients to playoff success. Let's look at predictive metrics for those two elements.

Skaters' scoring talent

With two full rounds complete, we can see how each team's postseason metrics have changed from the regular-season numbers above. Both teams have increased their SNIPES percentage, while their expected goals share has dipped. Defensively, both teams have seen their high-danger chances allowed increase, with the Panthers the most significant change, up to 10.1 per game.

Goaltending matchup

Shesterkin was the key ingredient to the Rangers' series win over the Hurricanes, saving 5.93 goals above expected. Meanwhile, Bobrovsky's play has been almost exactly in line with how he came into the playoffs - above-average but not dominant. Both goalies' numbers being so consistent allows us to rely on those as a predictor for the Eastern Conference Final.

Team ratings

Oddsmakers create moneylines based on a numerical valuation of every team. Here's the market's most recent valuation compared to how I have them rated (based on the metrics above) for the full season and post-All-Star break:

The Panthers have always been rated as the better team, which explains why they're favored in this series. However, after the Rangers didn't need much to beat the Capitals in the first round, taking out the top-rated team in the NHL in six games warrants some credit even if they weren't the better team at even strength.

At best, Florida's rating should hold steady, given it had just a 51% edge in even-strength play against a battered Bruins squad.

Best bet

Here are the prices that would be considered valuable for each team on the road, at home, and to win the series.

By the numbers, the Panthers are more likely to win this series, but the Rangers have defied the metrics for years due to a lethal power play, talented forwards that score at a higher rate on their best scoring chances than most teams, and a star goaltender in his prime. New York's profile mirrors the 2023 Golden Knights, who topped Florida in the Stanley Cup Final.

While Florida's more likely to win, we still have to account for pricing in the betting market, as the series line has crept up toward our target price of Rangers +134.

While the prices available don't quite qualify as valuable bets by the letter of the law, they're close enough when looking at how the Rangers win games - via special teams and goaltending. If Florida continues to allow more even-strength high-danger chances than it did in the regular season, that's also playing with fire against New York.

Faith in New York to convert at a high rate while Shesterkin stands on his head doesn't translate to an appealing bet when the Rangers are the favorites, or when they match up against a team like Carolina, who we can be sure will drive even-strength play. However, as underdogs with a notable home-ice advantage against a comparable team, betting on the Blueshirts from Broadway is the way to go.

Best bets:
- Rangers to win series (+130)
- Game 1: Rangers moneyline (+100)

(Stats sources: Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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Although the Oilers managed their first non-nail-biter win of their series with the Canucks on Saturday, momentum hasn't carried over from one tilt to the next. Neither team has been able to win consecutive games.

Will that trend change? The betting market thinks so, as the Oilers are a significant favorite for the seventh and final time in this series.

Game 7: Oilers (-160) @ Canucks (+135)

Vancouver has been undervalued in the betting market since losing Vezina Trophy nominee Thatcher Demko after the first game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Canucks went 3-2 in games lined close to pick'em, proving to be a profitable bet against the Predators. In Round 2, blindly betting the underdog Canucks six times continued to make backers money.

News broke Sunday of the latest injury twist for the Canucks - their leading playoff goal-scorer, Brock Boeser, is likely out with a blood clotting issue.

When Demko was announced as out, the market dropped the Canucks' chances of winning Game 2 versus the Predators from 60% to 55%. Whether or not that downgrade was warranted, Vancouver lost the game but showed it could still win the series.

After news of Boeser's unavailability, the Canucks' perceived chances took a 3% hit, going from +120 to +135. But will they be able to overcome his absence for one game?

We won't know the answer until Monday night, but we can look at how this series has been played in Vancouver at even strength using expected goals (xG), high-danger chances (HDC), and high-danger goals (HDG).

Unsurprisingly, the numbers are very close in such a tight series.

As for the goaltenders, Stuart Skinner returned to the net in Game 6 and played well, though the Canucks missed several early chances to test him. Meanwhile, Arturs Silovs continued his up-and-down postseason with a GSAx of minus-2.04. Like momentum in this series, his play vacillates nightly.

What might be more predictable is one of the X-factors coming into this series: the Oilers' outrageously efficient power play. After racking up goals in the first few games, Edmonton has gone 0-for-8 in the last two. If that's because the Canucks' coaching staff effectively drilled the team on how to prevent the Oilers from getting their go-to looks, that's a good sign that Game 7 will be won at even strength.

Before the series, we expected this to go seven, betting the Canucks +1.5 games and cashing that ticket with their Game 5 win. Almost anyone holding a ticket on Vancouver to win the series with odds from +220 before the series to +160 midway through is sitting pretty for a game lined shorter than that.

If you don't have a side, with so much uncertainty in net and a series that's been played close to 50-50 including the games in Edmonton (12.7-12.1 even-strength xG), the home underdogs are the only side worth a bet in this winner-take-all showdown.

Best bet: Canucks moneyline (+135)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

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You never get a second chance to make a first impression, but the Panthers and Stars have another opportunity to close out dangerous opponents. It should be more challenging for both since each had home-ice advantage in Game 5. But as the Stanley Cup Playoffs progress, the good clubs don't seem to have a problem playing on the road.

The visiting team is 13-8 in the second round this year. In the 10 games involving Friday's teams, the home side has won just once in each series, with Florida and Dallas winning Game 2. The market's usual addition of a 3.5% to 4% win probability for playing at home seemingly doesn't apply, so let's investigate Friday's moneyline prices and whether we should ignore location entirely.

Game 6: Panthers (-140) @ Bruins (+120)

The concern coming into the series was whether the wear and tear of the postseason would accumulate for the Bruins, as the club had to take on the Panthers less than 48 hours after beating the Maple Leafs in overtime of Game 7. Boston had every excuse to go away quietly in Game 5 but generated 12 even-strength high-danger chances to Florida's four. The Panthers' effort incensed head coach Paul Maurice - a red flag.

Keeping the series alive earned the Bruins bonus time off with two days between Games 5 and 6. Now, they return home with captain Brad Marchand expected back and Jeremy Swayman still playing well (2.57 GSAx).

Boston has scored on four of its 48 even-strength high-danger chances for the series. That's an 8.3% conversion rate that suggests the Bruins have been unlucky, especially compared to Florida's 15% (6-of-40) efficiency on those opportunities.

The Panthers are widely considered the better team but haven't shown enough separation in the underlying metrics. Florida doesn't warrant being a definitive favorite in a game where Boston - the team and city - can taste blood in the water.

Best bet: Bruins moneyline (+120)

Game 6: Stars (+100) @ Avalanche (-120)

The Stars missed their opportunity to buy themselves some much-appreciated rest, but it wasn't for lack of trying. Despite Dallas generating nine high-danger chances and more expected goals than Colorado in Game 5, Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon combined for three markers following a poor performance by the Avs duo at home in Game 4.

That's the type of production the Avalanche need from their leaders to compete with a much deeper Stars team. Unlike Boston, they don't have an extra day of rest between games.

Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger struggled in Game 5's third period, allowing 2.51 more goals than expected. It was a relative outlier poor performance for a netminder who saved almost six goals above expected (5.92 GSAx) since a disastrous first contest of the postseason.

The Stars were the NHL's best road team this campaign and are 4-1 away from home this playoffs. With the expectation that Oettinger bounces back, the Avalanche don't go 2-for-3 on the power play, and the Stars contain Makar and MacKinnon, back Dallas to outlast Colorado is the way to play Game 6.

Best bet: Stars moneyline (+100)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

A thinly shaved sliver of ice has separated the Oilers and Canucks through four games, so you'd assume their series is destined for seven games. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes, having battled back with two wins after going down 0-3, are just hoping to get to a Game 7.

Game 6: Rangers (+140) @ Hurricanes (-165)

In Game 3, oddsmakers opened the Hurricanes at -170 to get back into a series they trailed 0-2. The market corrected that, closing Carolina as -150 favorites in Games 3 and 4. Now back in Raleigh for Game 6, an opening moneyline of -165 has tilted upward because the Hurricanes appear to have figured out the Rangers. Paying an ample price for Carolina isn't all that appealing, so we'll turn to the total for a bet in Game 6.

After being the difference in the Rangers' three wins, Igor Shesterkin has a minus-0.03 goals saved above expected in New York's losses. However, the star goaltender is one of the few players in the league we expect to be at his best after a pair of mediocre performances. Defense should also be a priority for New York after it allowed three goals in a single period in each of the last two games.

Following early-series penalty-killing catastrophes, the Hurricanes have turned off the Rangers' power-play scoring spigot. After four New York goals with the man advantage, the Rangers haven't converted since tying Game 2 in the third period. At even strength, New York has generated just 19 high-danger chances in Games 3-5. Meanwhile, after getting Game 3 off, Frederik Andersen saved 1.29 goals above expected in Game 5, potentially finding the form he brought into the playoffs.

Late-series hockey is played close to the vest, so with both goalies set up for strong games, we'll bet on a low-scoring affair.

Best bet: Under 5.5 goals (-120)

Game 5: Oilers (-145) @ Canucks (+125)

We rejected the idea of a best bet in Game 4. We expected the Oilers - down 2-1 in the series and at home - to tap into the desperation that often makes the difference in playoff hockey but were unwilling to pay a -200 price to bet on them winning.

Edmonton did prevail, but not before blowing a 2-0 lead despite making a concerted effort to protect Calvin Pickard by allowing Vancouver only four even-strength high-danger chances (Pickard stopped two). The Oilers only generated an average number of scoring chances (eight) at five-on-five.

They desperately tried to draw penalties to put their incredible power play on the ice, but the Canucks maintained their discipline, taking just two minors. Hoping for more than one power-play goal and a breakdown from Vancouver's seventh defenseman isn't a viable strategy for Edmonton if its Game 4 showing is the best it can offer. It's certainly not worth laying odds on the road.

Pickard didn't hurt the Oilers as much as Stuart Skinner's play did, but we should expect Vancouver to generate more five-on-five offense at home (with a more dangerous power play). If that happens, the 32-year-old journeyman may be exposed, and a 50% even-strength high-danger chance save rate won't cut it.

Given the plausibility of that scenario, with the Canucks' turn to be the desperate group, a bet on the underdog is worth pulling the trigger on.

Best bet: Canucks moneyline (+125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

Copyright © 2024 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Find year-round coverage of betting news and insights for all sports by visiting our Betting section and subscribing to push notifications.

A thinly shaved sliver of ice has separated the Oilers and Canucks through four games, so you'd assume their series is destined for seven games. Meanwhile, the Hurricanes, having battled back with two wins after going down 0-3, are just hoping to get to a Game 7.

Game 6: Rangers (+140) @ Hurricanes (-165)

In Game 3, oddsmakers opened the Hurricanes at -170 to get back into a series they trailed 0-2. The market corrected that, closing Carolina as -150 favorites in Games 3 and 4. Now back in Raleigh for Game 6, an opening moneyline of -165 has tilted upward because the Hurricanes appear to have figured out the Rangers. Paying an ample price for Carolina isn't all that appealing, so we'll turn to the total for a bet in Game 6.

After being the difference in the Rangers' three wins, Igor Shesterkin has a minus-0.03 goals saved above expected in New York's losses. However, the star goaltender is one of the few players in the league we expect to be at his best after a pair of mediocre performances. Defense should also be a priority for New York after it allowed three goals in a single period in each of the last two games.

Following early-series penalty-killing catastrophes, the Hurricanes have turned off the Rangers' power-play scoring spigot. After four New York goals with the man advantage, the Rangers haven't converted since tying Game 2 in the third period. At even strength, New York has generated just 19 high-danger chances in Games 3-5. Meanwhile, after getting Game 3 off, Frederik Andersen saved 1.29 goals above expected in Game 5, potentially finding the form he brought into the playoffs.

Late-series hockey is played close to the vest, so with both goalies set up for strong games, we'll bet on a low-scoring affair.

Best bet: Under 5.5 goals (-120)

Game 5: Oilers (-145) @ Canucks (+125)

We rejected the idea of a best bet in Game 4. We expected the Oilers - down 2-1 in the series and at home - to tap into the desperation that often makes the difference in playoff hockey but were unwilling to pay a -200 price to bet on them winning.

Edmonton did prevail, but not before blowing a 2-0 lead despite making a concerted effort to protect Calvin Pickard by allowing Vancouver only four even-strength high-danger chances (Pickard stopped two). The Oilers only generated an average number of scoring chances (eight) at five-on-five.

They desperately tried to draw penalties to put their incredible power play on the ice, but the Canucks maintained their discipline, taking just two minors. Hoping for more than one power-play goal and a breakdown from Vancouver's seventh defenseman isn't a viable strategy for Edmonton if its Game 4 showing is the best it can offer. It's certainly not worth laying odds on the road.

Pickard didn't hurt the Oilers as much as Stuart Skinner's play did, but we should expect Vancouver to generate more five-on-five offense at home (with a more dangerous power play). If that happens, the 32-year-old journeyman may be exposed, and a 50% even-strength high-danger chance save rate won't cut it.

Given the plausibility of that scenario, with the Canucks' turn to be the desperate group, a bet on the underdog is worth pulling the trigger on.

Best bet: Canucks moneyline (+125)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.

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