All posts by Ian McLaren

Corsi Hockey League: Why the red-hot Avs will come back to earth

On the surface, everything's going great for the Colorado Avalanche.

Last season's last-place club is riding a 10-game win streak and occupies a Western Conference wild-card playoff spot heading into Tuesday's game in Montreal. In the bigger picture, the Avs boast a season record of 27-16-3 with a fifth-ranked goal differential of plus-22.

But is a team one year removed from finishing with the lowest point percentage in the shootout era truly a force to be reckoned with?

At the moment, the answer appears to be a clear yes, but the underlying numbers suggest the Avalanche will eventually begin to roll downhill.

First, it's important to note the Avs' special teams have been very effective, with the league's No. 8 power play (20.9 percent) and its second-ranked penalty kill (84.9 percent).

The majority of the game is played at even strength, however, so here are a few key five-on-five stats that paint a more complete picture.

Corsi For rating - 48.32

As a refresher, Corsi measures shot attempt differential, and is calculated by adding a team's shots on goal, shot attempts gone wide, and blocked shot attempts, and then subtracting that number from the same types of shot attempts directed at that team's own net.

The difference is then presented as a percentage of shot attempts for and against. A percentage above 50 generally signals a team's ability to control play.

Colorado ranks 23rd in this category at 48.32 percent, meaning the team's opposition is regularly sending more pucks toward the net.

Expected Goals For percentage - 46.86

With that in mind, let's turn to expected goals for, which does not look favorably on the Avs. This stat evaluates the types of shots for and against, giving some more value than others. Corsica takes the following variables into account:

  • Shot type
  • Shot distance
  • Shot angle
  • Rebounds
  • Rush shots
  • Strength state

Colorado's xGF% ranks 26th, which suggests the types of shots taken and allowed will amount to more goals scored by the opposition than by the Avs.

PDO - 101.78

So what is working for Colorado?

The power play and penalty kill have already been mentioned, but the Avs are also riding a high PDO - the sum of a team's shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength. It's believed that most teams will level off close to 100, with a higher or lower number suggesting that luck - positive or negative, respectively - is playing a significant role.

The Avs' PDO is fourth in the NHL, with a second-ranked shooting percentage (8.99) added to a 10th-ranked save percentage (92.79). In other words, they're capitalizing on their offensive chances and riding some hot goaltending, especially as of late.

The performances of Nathan MacKinnon (19 points in the last 10 games) and Jonathan Bernier (.954 save percentage in January) during the streak have clearly provided a huge boost. Skaters including Alexander Kerfoot, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen also all have shooting percentages over 16 for the season - well above the norm.

Essentially, the high PDO tells us that puck luck isn't likely to go the Avalanche's way forever, and some amount of regression is expected.

A dropoff is not guaranteed - the game is played on ice, after all, not simulated on computers - and what the Avs have achieved up to this point is worth celebrating. They've already eclipsed last season's win and point totals.

Still, Colorado needed 10 straight wins just to climb into a playoff spot, and the team's position remains tenuous at best. Based on all of the above, don't be surprised if the Avalanche are on the outside looking in when the season ends.

(Statistical information courtesy: Corsica Hockey)

(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)

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Report: Coffey expected to join Oilers in unspecified capacity

Another Edmonton Oilers great appears set to join the club's front office.

Hall of Fame defenseman Paul Coffey is expected to join the organization in some capacity, according to TSN's Bob McKenzie.

Coffey was in attendance for Edmonton's game against Vancouver on Sunday, and reiterated the unspecified nature of his role:

Coffey spent seven seasons with the Oilers, winning three Stanley Cups with Edmonton in the 1980s. He added another Cup to his resume with Pittsburgh in 1991, and amassed a bevy of other personal accolades that include ranking second all time in scoring by a defenseman.

This will mark his first foray into the decision-making side of the game at the NHL level.

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Canadiens muster single point in 3 games over 8 days vs. Bruins

Presented with an opportunity to make up ground quickly, the Montreal Canadiens came up short.

Over the course of the last eight days, the Canadiens played the rival Boston Bruins - a team they're chasing for a playoff spot - on three occasions.

The result? Three losses and a single point earned.

Here's how it went down:

  • Jan. 13 - Bruins 4, Canadiens 3 (Shootout decision)
  • Jan. 17 - Bruins 4, Canadiens 1
  • Jan. 20 - Bruins 4, Canadiens 1

The Canadiens now sit 18 points behind the Bruins, who are in turn inching close to the first-placed Tampa Bay Lightning after earning at least a point in their last 16 games overall.

As it stands, the Canadiens face an uphill battle - if there's any hope at all - to clinch a playoff berth.

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Neal joins impressive company with 20th goal of season

James Neal is a scoring machine, and playing for an expansion team is not slowing him down.

With a goal in Friday's overtime loss to the Florida Panthers, the Vegas Golden Knights winger became the sixth active player to score at least 20 goals in each of his first 10 NHL seasons.

The other five are Alexander Ovechkin, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Tomas Vanek, and Jaromir Jagr.

Neal was drafted 33rd overall by the Dallas Stars in 2005 and scored 24 goals as a rookie in 2008-09. His lowest single-season total is 21, recorded in 2012-13 with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but he appeared in only 40 games that season.

He hit his high the season prior, scoring 40 goals for the Penguins.

With 20 goals through 45 games, Neal is on pace for 36 over a full 82-game season. He becomes an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

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Matthews: Andersen ‘absolutely within his right’ to be upset with fellow Leafs

Auston Matthews believes Frederik Andersen did well to call out his Toronto Maple Leafs teammates on Thursday night following another loss in which the team blew a third period lead.

"Andersen doesn't say much, but when he says something, people listen up," Matthews said Friday after practice, per Chris Stevenson of NHL.com. "He's absolutely within his right to be upset because we've left him out to dry too many times over this course of games. He's absolutely right. We have his back. We need to be better for one another, and we need to be better for him."

Related: Blowing leads becoming all too familiar for Maple Leafs

A visibly frustrated Andersen said the Leafs need to examine both their attitude and overall effort level after Thursday's overtime loss in Philadelphia, adding the team simply can't coast through the regular season despite sitting comfortably in a playoff spot.

Again, Matthews agreed.

"You can't have any complacency," said the young star center. "A lot can change. So you can go on a tough stretch, you can go on a hot stretch. Next thing you know, you're in another battle. We just want to stay focused, stay focused the whole season, doesn't matter what position we're in, we want to win every night."

The Maple Leafs are 12 points up on Detroit for third in the Atlantic Division heading into Saturday's game in Ottawa.

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Bernier coming up big during Avs’ 8-game win streak

Jonathan Bernier is brilliantly backstopping the Colorado Avalanche to many a victory of late.

Last season's last-place club extended its win streak to eight games courtesy of a 5-3 decision over San Jose on Thursday, and Bernier has been between the pipes for the past seven victories.

The win over the Sharks was the first time he allowed more than two goals over the course of the streak, but he did stop 45 of 48 shots, good for a .938 save percentage.

That single-game success rate is actually Bernier's second-lowest over his past seven starts.

Date Opponent Saves Save%
Dec. 31 Islanders 27 .964
Jan. 2 Jets 21 .913
Jan. 4 Blue Jackets 34 1.000
Jan. 6 Wild 34 .944
Jan. 13 Stars 27 .964
Jan. 15 Ducks 33 .971
Jan. 18 Sharks 45 .938

Bernier was signed to a one-year, $2.75-million contract last summer with a view to spotting starter Semyon Varlamov. With the latter shelved with an injury, Bernier is certainly providing excellent value for a club surprisingly in playoff contention.

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Andersen: Leafs need to examine attitude, effort

Frederik Andersen didn't mince words after the Toronto Maple Leafs blew yet another lead Thursday.

For the third time in the past four games, the Leafs were up in the third period but couldn't hold on, this time losing in overtime to the Philadelphia Flyers.

Related: Blown leads costing Maple Leafs during shaky January

The setbacks are clearly wearing on the goaltender.

"We've got to regroup, we've got to figure out who wants to commit to playing as a team," Andersen said postgame. "I think we have a few days now until our next game - one day between - but we've got to look at the attitude. We played well enough for two periods, but we've got to find a way to keep the foot on the gas the whole game. We can't be satisfied with two periods."

The game-tying goal came off a shorthanded odd-man rush early in the third period, another bothersome event for Andersen.

"I think it's a lack of effort at certain points and we've got to figure this out if we want to play any meaningful hockey later. We've got to figure it out."

Despite the recent trend, Toronto sits comfortably in third place in the Atlantic Division - 12 points up on Detroit in the "race" for that playoff spot. But as far as Andersen is concerned, there's no coasting through any part of the regular season.

"We're sitting pretty good, I think we've got it pretty comfortable, but that can't be any reason for not playing the right way. We've got to be ready when it comes to past the (All-Star) break here. It's going to be a lot tougher with teams trying to catch us. We can't slide like this."

Toronto's next game is Saturday in Ottawa.

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Bergeron rises up ranks of Bruins greats with latest hat trick

Patrice Bergeron has found his scoring touch to begin 2018.

The Boston Bruins center recorded a hat trick in a win over the New York Islanders on Thursday, only five games after notching his first career four-goal game (Jan. 6 vs. Carolina).

These kinds of outbursts are rare for Bergeron, who had only one career hat trick heading into the new year. He's been a consistent scoring threat over the course of his career, however, averaging 24 goals for every 82 games played.

The latest three goals gave him 278, pushing him past Wayne Cashman for seventh on the Bruins' all-time list - 11 behind Ken Hodge.

"I had a chance to learn from Cash my first few years," Bergeron said postgame, according to the Bruins' Twitter account. "He was a great person, I've heard only great things about him as a player and the way he played the game. It's always great to hear and great honors.

"But at the same time, I'm really worried about what I can control, which is helping my team get some more wins."

The Bruins are indeed winning games, having picked up at least a point in their past 15. Boston now sits only five points back of the NHL-leading Lightning, with one game in hand.

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Lindros credits wife, Paul Holmgren for Flyers number retirement

The Philadelphia Flyers retired Eric Lindros' No. 88 on Thursday, forever uniting one of the game's greats with the team he spent his most dominant seasons with, and from which he later infamously parted ways.

Thirteen months after stepping back into the fold by playing with the Flyers at the 50th Anniversary Alumni game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Lindros credited two special people for making this particular occasion possible.

"It's no secret that when I left Philadelphia, it was under less than ideal circumstances," Lindros said during his speech. "I believe I'm here today - hockey aside - because of two people: my wife Kina, and (Flyers president) Paul Holmgren. Both in their own ways have taught me to move on, put in the past any differences of opinion, any hurt feelings.

"It was time to remember the great moments I experienced here in Philadelphia, the friendships I have built in this great city, and the respect I have for the fans of this team."

Perhaps Holmgren said it best earlier in the night:

Lindros won the Hart Trophy in 1995 and led the Flyers to the Stanley Cup Final in 1997, amassing big numbers and levying bigger hits along the ways. A series of concussions and subsequent questions over his treatment by the team's medical staff led to an ugly end to his tenure with the club, culminating in a 2001 trade to the New York Rangers that was made by then-general manager, Bobby Clarke.

He appeared in 486 regular-season games for the Flyers, recording 290 goals, 369 assists, and 946 penalty minutes, and was inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame in 2016.

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Report: Sabres haven’t discussed new deal with Kane

Evander Kane's days with the Buffalo Sabres appear to be numbered.

Kane confirmed to Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News that he won't be re-signed by the Sabres, meaning the winger is set to become one of the bigger prizes at both the trade deadline and in free agency.

From Harrington:

He's in the final year of a six-year, $31.25 million contract he signed with the Winnipeg Jets in 2012 and confirmed to The Buffalo News this week what has been widely assumed: The Sabres have never negotiated with him on a new deal.

The decision, Kane added, appears to be mainly organizational, as he would've been more than willing to talk to general manager Jason Botterill about a contract extension.

"Of course I would have. Absolutely," he said. "I've said from Day One I've really enjoyed the time here. For me, it's a place where I've grown to know more and more about Buffalo. It's been a real great experience for me. I'm just going to continue that until I get told something different."

Kane has recorded 16 goals and 20 assists in 44 games for the Sabres, and is on pace to match his career-high 30 goals while setting a new personal bar in points.

He'll be highly sought after in a trade and later on the open market, but the asking price will likely be set quite high by the Sabres, even if interested teams might only gain his services for the balance of this season.

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