All posts by Alex Moretto

NHL Thursday betting preview: Buy low on Habs in Winnipeg

Our heater suffered a minor setback as a 1-2 start to the week has pushed our current run to 15-6.

Let's get it back with a sweep Thursday.

Devils (+100) @ Sabres (-120)

New Jersey closed as -145 favorites when these teams met less than 48 hours ago. The Sabres won 4-1 on Tuesday and are now -120 favorites for Thursday. Granted, this game is in Buffalo, but one win doesn't negate the fact that this is a team in turmoil.

The Sabres' issues run deep and haven't been magically fixed overnight despite Tuesday's victory. The Devils thoroughly outplayed Buffalo, with Linus Ullmark standing on his head before a power-play goal swung the momentum in his team's favor.

New Jersey is far from a perfect team, but its issues over the past week can largely be attributed to inexperience. This is a young, talented roster that's going through growing pains. The Devils are still undervalued, especially with a large edge in goal.

MacKenzie Blackwood is excellent, and while he was outdueled by Linus Ullmark on Tuesday, that was the exception, not the rule. If Ullmark starts again Thursday, it'll be his fifth in eight nights. As a result, it's very possible we see Carter Hutton, who's a massive drop-off from Ullmark. Either way, the Devils will hold the edge in this department and are good value in what's a prime bounce-back spot.

Pick: Devils (+100)

Canadiens (-115) @ Jets (-105)

The Canadiens made the right decision firing Claude Julien. This is a deep team with a lot of speed that needs to be aggressive and energetic offensively. Julien's insistence on sticking to a conservative game plan - clogging the neutral zone and waiting for your opponent to make mistakes - wasn't the right fit for this roster.

In a move that was overdue, Kirk Muller is also gone. The Canadiens have had a bottom-10 power play in each of the last three seasons, and their penalty kill has also been below average. That's inexcusable given the personnel at their disposal. Both units have been nothing short of disastrous over the last few weeks, with no adjustments made.

Julien's successor, Dominique Ducharme - who coached the Halifax Mooseheads to a Memorial Cup win and Canada to World Juniors gold - is known as an innovative offensive bench boss. Whether he's the answer remains to be seen, but the change should provide a necessary spark for a still very good Canadiens team.

The market has soured on Montreal a bit due to this rough stretch. That works to our benefit as the Canadiens take on a Jets team the market is too high on. Winnipeg sits 29th in expected goals percentage, with Montreal in first. Better days are ahead for the Canadiens, while the Jets - who were far from convincing in a pair of somewhat fortunate wins over a bad Canucks team - are due for some regression.

Pick: Canadiens (-115)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting preview: Value bets for Friday and Saturday’s slates

We split again Thursday to take our current run to 12-4.

Let's try to push back on a few splits in a row now with a sweep of this weekend's card.

Oilers (+100) @ Flames (-120)
Feb. 19, 9 p.m. ET

Round 2 of the Battle of Alberta is slated for Friday night, with the third installment to follow Saturday. We backed the Calgary Flames in the first meeting a couple of weeks ago and were rewarded with a 6-4 win, but we're changing course tonight.

The Edmonton Oilers have been on a bit of a tear since then, with four wins from five. It's not just that they're winning, though, but more about how they're winning. They've controlled 58% of the expected goal share and generated 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes across the last five games, and enter this rematch as one of the league's hottest offenses.

To make matters worse for a suddenly struggling Flames side, David Rittich will get the start tonight in the first game of this back-to-back, with Jacob Markstrom finally getting a breather. There's a massive difference between the two netminders; since the start of last season, Rittich has a minus-4.69 GSAA compared to an 11.56 mark for Markstrom. He hasn't started a game since Feb. 2, and this is a brutal first game back in the crease against an Oilers offense firing on all cylinders.

Pick: Oilers (+100)

Panthers (-170) @ Red Wings (+150)
Feb. 20, 5 p.m.

The lookahead line for this game is about on par with what's being offered in the first leg of the back-to-back on Friday, but any significant movement will likely be toward the Florida Panthers. That works in our favor, as I'm circling the Detroit Red Wings as a great value bet in this spot.

With Chris Driedger confirmed as Friday's starter, Sergei Bobrovsky will man the crease in Saturday's rematch. That's a massive drop-off in goal for the Panthers, from Driedger's 3.91 GSAA and 1.36 GSAx to Bobrovsky's minus-5.11 GSAA and minus-8.18 GSAx. The Russian netminder's performances have fallen off a cliff since signing his megadeal, and it's hard to justify laying this sort of juice on Florida with him in goal.

The Red Wings go from Thomas Greiss to Jonathan Bernier, with the difference between the two negligible. Results have been hard to come by for them, but the underlying numbers suggest better days are ahead. They've been very competitive of late, proving a tough out as a really strong unit at five-on-five.

DATE OPPONENT xGF% (5-on-5)
Jan. 30 Panthers 63.9%
Jan. 31 Panthers 50.77%
Feb. 3 Lightning 36.76%
Feb. 5 Lightning 66.1%
Feb. 7 Panthers 57.66%
Feb. 9 Panthers 52.65%
Feb. 11 Predators 49.28%
Feb. 13 Predators 53.78%
Feb. 15 Blackhawks 62.2%
Feb. 17 Blackhawks 51.89%

Included in this stretch are four games against the Panthers, of which the Wings had the better of play in each. They deserved more than a 1-2-1 record, but each of those three losses was by a single goal, while the win was a convincing 4-1 result. With Bobrovsky essentially assured of the start, this is the perfect spot to back Detroit to get back into the win column at a generous price.

Pick: Red Wings (+150 or better)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday betting preview: Back the Rangers vs. shorthanded Flyers

Yet another split Monday means we're a bit stuck over the last week as we aim to build on a great February thus far.

We're on an 11-3 run and looking to improve on that mark Thursday.

Rangers (-105) at Flyers (-115)

Artemi Panarin and K'Andre Miller are slated to return to the lineup for the New York Rangers as they take on a Philadelphia Flyers team that's been idle since Feb. 7. Sitting at 4-7-3, this almost has the feel of a must-win for New York, which is hoping to avoid slipping too far down the East Division standings.

All things considered, though, the Rangers have been playing relatively well. They lost a pair of hard-fought one-goal games against the Boston Bruins despite controlling a greater portion of the expected goal share at five-on-five in each, which has been a common theme this season. Seven of their 10 losses have been by just a goal, so they're due for some better results.

This represents the perfect opportunity for the Rangers to begin adding to the win column as they get their Hart Trophy candidate back against a Flyers lineup that's ravaged by injuries. Philadelphia is without Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Travis Konecny, Oskar Lindblom, Scott Laughton, and Justin Braun, and the team hasn't played in 11 days. If the Rangers can't win here, there's legitimate cause for concern.

Pick: Rangers (-105)

Kings (+130) at Coyotes (-150)

Have the Los Angeles Kings turned a corner? They've won back-to-back games by a combined 10-2, but the underlying numbers still haven't been pretty.

They were outplayed in a 6-2 win over the San Jose Sharks, benefitting from yet another Martin Jones horror show. They scored those six goals in the first and third periods despite just 1.08 expected goals, and the Sharks controlled 57.4% of the expected goal share at all strengths. And then in a 4-0 win on Tuesday, they benefitted from taking on a Minnesota Wild team that hadn't played in two weeks and looked like it had nothing in the tank.

So, the pair of positive results isn't scaring me off here, but rather inviting us to sell high on the Kings, who are dead last in the NHL in expected goal share at five-on-five with a putrid mark of just 41.32%. The Arizona Coyotes, meanwhile, are a very respectable 13th with a 51.61% share despite a really tough schedule that's had them play 11 of their first 15 games against the St. Louis Blues and Vegas Golden Knights.

It may seem like a lot of juice to lay with the Coyotes, but this is a bargain considering what the price would have been if not for a pair of fortunate results for the Kings over the past week.

Pick: Coyotes (-150)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Monday betting preview: Looking at 2 all-Canadian matchups

A shootout loss for the Stars forced a split on Saturday, though we still took home a small profit thanks to backing a pair of 'dogs.

It takes us to 10-2 in our last 12 bets as we look to keep the momentum going Monday.

Jets (+115) @ Oilers (-135)

I predicted the Jets to make the playoffs, and I'm feeling good about that a month into the campaign. They've been pretty strong thus far but are due for some regression. Through 14 games, they've played the Maple Leafs and Canadiens just once combined and have met the Senators five times.

Despite the soft schedule, the Jets are one of the league's worst teams at five-on-five, sitting 30th with just 43.96% of the expected goal share. They've owned a 50%-plus share just once over their last six games - in Saturday's loss to the Senators. The Oilers haven't exactly been incredible in this regard, but they're at least middle-of-the-pack with a 49.65% mark. Seven of Edmonton's 16 games have also come against the division's top two teams.

The Oilers are due for some positive regression. This is a kind price for them on home ice, especially with Pierre-Luc Dubois set to miss out again for Winnipeg.

Pick: Oilers (-135)

Flames (-130) @ Canucks (+110)

The weight of a province was lifted off the Canucks on Saturday night. Having lost six straight, the Canucks were devoid of confidence and playing themselves out of the playoff picture. Playing eight of their first 16 games against the Leafs and Habs didn't help, but there was a lot more to it.

And it was a tough spot for them to be in. Firing Travis Green after last season's playoff run would have been a mistake. Quarantine rules make trading difficult - the Canucks wouldn't want to potentially wait two weeks after a deal for a spark, given the urgency of their situation. The answers had to come from within.

They put in great performances in the series finale against the Leafs and the opener versus the Flames but didn't have a single point to show for it. Desperation was surely setting in, and it showed on Saturday. The Canucks put forth arguably their best performance of the season in a 3-1 win over the Flames, outshooting them 46-19 and controlling 62.37% of the expected goal share at five-on-five. Even Jacob Markstrom's heroics weren't enough for Calgary. It was exactly the sort of performance and result that the Canucks needed, and now they need to build off it.

Calgary is likely to turn to David Rittich tonight with Markstrom starting each of the last five games, and the difference between the two is massive. I'd wait for confirmation before locking this in, but assuming Rittich gets the nod, there's great value - despite any potential small change to the line - on the Canucks to make it back-to-back wins.

Pick: Canucks (+110)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Saturday betting preview: Good value with a pair of home ‘dogs

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Our perfect 8-0 run came to an end Thursday night as the Blackhawks blew a pair of third-period leads against the Blue Jackets, forcing us to settle for a 1-1 split.

Still, I'm feeling Jack Roslovic dangerous right now - we're both on some next-level heaters - so let's make it count this weekend:

Hurricanes (-130) @ Stars (+110)

The Hurricanes moved to 3-0-0 against the Stars this season with a 5-3 win in Dallas on Thursday night, but I'm looking the other way in Saturday's rematch. The Stars have been drastically better in the second leg of two-game sets this year. Whether it's a product of coaching or experience, their five-on-five splits are undeniable:

Opponent xGF% (Game 1) xGF% (Game 2)
Predators 33.00% 60.55%
Red Wings 49.14% 67.96%
Hurricanes 36.36% 55.56%
Blue Jackets 53.13% 67.44%
Blackhawks 50.00% 57.45%
Hurricanes 50.93% TBD

Central Division teams have also struggled brutally on the road in the back halves of two-game series, with home teams going 20-3 straight up in those situations. All three of Carolina's losses this season have come in the second contests of two-game sets on the road; the Hurricanes are 0-3 in such situations, losing in Detroit, Chicago, and Columbus.

The Stars have held a slight edge over Carolina at five-on-five in the last two meetings, and they're due for a bit of positive regression after losing both. Factor in the rematch boost on home ice and Dallas is an excellent value play at plus-money.

Pick: Stars (+110)

Flames (-140) @ Canucks (+120)

There's no hiding the Canucks' miserable start to the season. They're completely out of sorts defensively, and the underlying numbers aren't pretty. That means the only way for this team to go is up. A brutally tough schedule to open the campaign has already seen Vancouver play a total of eight games against the Maple Leafs and Canadiens. The Canucks are 5-4-0 against the rest of the North Division and due for positive regression overall.

Vancouver played really well in the first of four straight games against the Flames on Thursday, despite the loss. Jacob Markstrom was excellent against his former team, allowing just one goal despite the Canucks controlling 62.18% of the expected goal share; there are plenty of positives for this team to draw from the loss as it looks to end a six-game skid.

The Canucks have managed just over 50% of the expected goal share at five-on-five on home ice this year, with the Flames a hair below 50% on the road. Calgary is undeniably the better team, but this line presents good value on a Vancouver team due for an uptick in the luck department.

Pick: Canucks (+120)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Stanley Cup odds update: Habs soaring as Canucks free fall

It may feel like we're still in the infant stages of the 2021 NHL season, but most teams - those that haven't battled COVID-19 issues - are through at least 20% of the schedule.

That's more than enough of a sample size to begin separating the pretenders and contenders, with teams like the Canadiens and Canucks revealing their true worth to bettors through the opening month.

Here's a look at the current Stanley Cup oddsboard compared to what it looked like before the season:

TEAM ODDS (2/9) ODDS (1/12)
Colorado Avalanche +450 +450
Tampa Bay Lightning +600 +800
Vegas Golden Knights +700 +900
Boston Bruins +1000 +1200
Philadelphia Flyers +1200 +1600
Toronto Maple Leafs +1200 +1200
Carolina Hurricanes +1500 +2000
Dallas Stars +1800 +1800
Montreal Canadiens +1800 +3500
St. Louis Blues +1800 +1800
Washington Capitals +1800 +2000
New York Islanders +2200 +2200
Pittsburgh Penguins +2200 +2200
Edmonton Oilers +2500 +2500
Calgary Flames +2800 +3500
New York Rangers +3200 +2800
Columbus Blue Jackets +3800 +3800
Nashville Predators +4000 +3000
Florida Panthers +4500 +4500
Winnipeg Jets +4500 +4500
Minnesota Wild +4800 +6000
Vancouver Canucks +5000 +2500
Arizona Coyotes +6000 +8000
New Jersey Devils +6000 +8500
Buffalo Sabres +6500 +5000
Los Angeles Kings +8000 +7000
Anaheim Ducks +8500 +7500
Chicago Blackhawks +12500 +8500
San Jose Sharks +12500 +7000
Detroit Red Wings +25000 +25000
Ottawa Senators +35000 +20000

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Trending up

Montreal Canadiens (+3500 to +1800)

It's hard to find any faults in the Canadiens' game right now. Despite sitting just below the Leafs in the standings, the underlying numbers - including the league's joint-best goal differential and second-best expected goals percentage at five-on-five - all support the Habs as the team to beat in the North Division. There's not a weak spot on this roster, and even with their odds being slashed in half, there's still some value here.

Minnesota Wild (+6000 to +4800)

The Kirill Kaprizov era is officially underway, but I'm not ready to buy in on the Wild yet. The underlying metrics support their strong start, but eight of their 11 games have come against the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks. They were certainly competitive against the Avalanche despite losing two of three, but I need a much bigger sample size against the West Division's true contenders before I'm ready to say the Wild have arrived - and I say that as someone who was on their bandwagon coming into the season.

Arizona Coyotes (+8000 to +6000)

Perhaps the team we really should be looking out for in the West is Arizona. The Coyotes (6-5-1) own virtually an identical record to the Wild (6-5), but have faced a much tougher schedule to date with eight games against the Blues and Knights. They've also yet to face the basement-dwelling Kings, a team the Wild have faced four times. Despite the tough schedule, Arizona ranks second in expected goals for per game and 10th in expected goal share at five-on-five. Its young forwards have all taken a step forward, and the ceiling is high with Darcy Kuemper in goal. At 60-1, there's still value on the Coyotes.

Trending down

Nashville Predators (+3000 to +4000)

It's been tough sledding for the Predators, who are 3-8 since starting 2-0. I dug to try and uncover reasons for optimism in Nashville, but it wasn't pretty. They're average at best at five-on-five, and an unrivaled disaster on special teams with the league's worst penalty kill joined by an equally feeble power play. And to top it off, both goaltenders are struggling. With a rapidly ageing core, all signs point to this being the start of a steady decline.

Vancouver Canucks (+2500 to +5000)

It's looking like a lost season for the Canucks, who appear to be much closer to Ottawa's tier in the North Division. A 6-10 record has left them in a massive hole at the quarter mark of the season, and the underlying numbers show just how miserable the team has been, sitting 28th in expected goal share and Corsi For percentage at five-on-five. That's largely down to how bad they've been defensively, ranking dead last on a per game basis in shots allowed, goals against, expected goals against, and scoring chances against at five-on-five. They've allowed at least five goals in nine of their 13 non-Ottawa games this season. Yikes.

Chicago Blackhawks (+8500 to +12500)

It's hard to make any sense of the Chicago's slide down the oddsboard which, if nothing else, presents a great buying opportunity. The Blackhawks have found something in rookie goalie Kevin Lankinen. He sits third in the NHL with a 5.30 GSAA, and they've taken points from eight of his nine starts (5-1-3). The team in front of him is also playing well after a slow start, generating offense at an above-average rate. They're proving to be undervalued, winning three in a row against the Hurricanes and Stars, while losing just once in regulation in the last 11 games. It's a wide-open race for fourth place in the Central Division, and they're forcing themselves into the conversation.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting preview: Buy low on Flames, Hurricanes

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

There's nothing quite like waking up the morning after sweeping the board.

A 3-0 night Thursday continued the momentum from a 4-2 start to the week, and we're now sitting at 7-2 over the last four days heading into the weekend.

Here's what I'm looking to bet these next few days:

Sharks (+100) @ Ducks (-120)
Feb. 5, 10 p.m. ET

This is one of three plays I have on the ice tonight, but it's the one Friday bet I want to dive deeper on. The other two - Bruins over Flyers and Panthers over Predators - are down to getting the better team at a relatively short price with a significant edge in the goaltending matchup. Brian Elliott will start for Philadelphia, while Florida has a massive advantage between the pipes with Chris Driedger starting opposite Pekka Rinne.

For this West Division game, though, we care less about who starts in net. It's the first half of a back-to-back with these teams slated to meet again Saturday, but assuming John Gibson starts for the Ducks, the Sharks lose in this area regardless. Any changes in the crease can only help our cause.

San Jose moves down a weight class here after a tough schedule thus far, and a one-week break should have served the Sharks well - especially on the back end where Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson rank first and third in the NHL, respectively, in average ice time per game.

The Sharks are 30th in the NHL in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five, but much of that inefficiency can be attributed to their schedule. The Ducks, meanwhile, ranked 31st before their game against the Kings on Tuesday. San Jose is the better team at all strengths in Corsi For percentage, shot percentage, expected goals for, and expected goals against per 60 minutes, and it's generating more high-danger chances per game while allowing fewer. And this is all despite a tougher schedule. Simply put: The Sharks are bad, but the Ducks are worse.

Pick: Sharks (+100), Bruins (-130), Panthers (-125)

Oilers (+100) @ Flames (-120)
Feb. 6, 10 p.m.

These heated rivals meet Saturday night in this season's first edition of the Battle of Alberta. While these two teams are expected to be in a fierce scrap for a playoff spot in the North Division, I'm quite confident in which horse I'd like to back here.

The Flames don't have a Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but they're the better all-around team than the Oilers. They're deeper, they play a smarter and stronger game, they're far more adept defensively, and they hold a significant edge in goal.

Calgary has been strong at five-on-five this year, owning at least 54% of the expected goal share in all but three of its games. The Flames are top 10 in Corsi For percentage and expected goals for percentage, but they rank bottom 10 in shooting percentage; that combination screams positive regression. The Oilers, on the other hand, rank 22nd in Corsi For percentage and 15th in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five. The Flames play a more sustainable brand of hockey and have the better netminder in Jacob Markstrom, making them a bargain at this price.

Pick: Flames (-120)

Hurricanes (N/A) @ Blue Jackets (N/A)
Feb. 7, 3 p.m.

As more people realize the Hurricanes are among the NHL's best, spots to back this team will become less and less prevalent. I've got Sunday's contest circled, though: We should get a reasonable price after the Blue Jackets beat the Stars and Carolina lost to Chicago to close out a somewhat unconvincing two-game series against the Blackhawks.

The Hurricanes controlled 58% of the expected goal share at five-on-five against Chicago, on par with their season mark of 56.68% - the second-best figure in the NHL. They were undone Thursday by three Blackhawks power-play goals, which isn't a concern here. Chicago's power play ranks fourth in the NHL, converting at a 32.7% clip through Thursday, while Columbus sits 24th with a modest 16.4% success rate.

Factoring in what we know about the Blue Jackets - that they struggle mightily in the first game against a new opponent - swings the needle further in Carolina's direction. I've used the chart below three times now, but there's been no reason to stray from it. Columbus has been terrible in its first go against a new opponent, and it's set for a date with a Hurricanes team that's better at five-on-five than any unit the Blue Jackets have faced this season.

Opponent xGF% (Game 1) xGF% (Game 2)
Predators 46.53% 64.05%
Red Wings 36.95% 53.83%
Lightning 33.33% 56.48%
Panthers 29.92% 48.55%
Blackhawks 37.41% 56.31%
Stars 42.06% 31.57%

With no special teams advantage or goaltending edge to consider for Columbus, I'd be comfortable playing Carolina all the way up to -140.

Pick: Hurricanes (-140 or better)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Thursday betting preview: Regression looms for Panthers, Caps

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Back-to-back 2-1 nights to begin the week have us in good standing heading into a busy Thursday.

Here's what I'm looking to bet on:

Predators (-105) @ Panthers (-115)

It's been a terrific start to the season for the Panthers (5-0-1), who have yet to lose in regulation. However, there's a lot less reason for optimism when you peel back the curtain.

Florida's schedule to date has been very kind, with two games each against the Blackhawks, Red Wings, and Blue Jackets. While the Panthers have done well to take advantage, they've only won once by more than a goal. They were just outplayed at five-on-five across two games against Detroit. Plus, the underlying numbers suggest this is a very average hockey team.

Regression is coming, and there's no better time for it than Thursday as Florida steps up a weight class. It might not appear as such on the surface, with the Predators sitting at 4-5-0, but they're overdue for an uptick in results. Nashville controlled nearly 56% of the expected goal share at five-on-five against the Lightning, whose talent won out in the end, and has managed a 55% share over its last seven games, five of which have come against the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Stars.

The Predators are much better than their record indicates, and we get them at a bargain Thursday. Just make sure Juuse Saros is starting, as Pekka Rinne has endured a miserable start to the season.

Pick: Predators (-105)

Stars (-130) @ Blue Jackets (+110)

The Blue Jackets battled back after a miserable start Tuesday against the Stars to make things respectable, and I'd expect the same response from them here. It's what Columbus has done all season.

John Tortorella has been excellent at making adjustments, with the Blue Jackets performing much better in the second contest of a two-game set than the first.

Opponent xGF% (Game 1) xGF% (Game 2)
Predators 46.53% 64.05%
Red Wings 36.95% 53.83%
Lightning 33.33% 56.48%
Panthers 29.92% 48.55%
Blackhawks 37.41% 56.31%
Stars 42.06% TBD

Because of the lopsided nature of Tuesday's 6-3 Stars win, and Dallas' 5-1-1 start to the year, we're getting excellent value here on a resilient Columbus squad on home ice.

Pick: Blue Jackets (+110)

Capitals (-110) @ Rangers (-110)

The Capitals have rolled with the punches this season, coping with key absences without any stumbles. They're second in points per game in the East Division. However, there's plenty of evidence to suggest their hot start isn't sustainable.

Washington sits 29th in the NHL in expected goal share (45.23%) at five-on-five. Only the Sharks and Kings have been worse. In fact, the Capitals have struggled across the board at five-on-five. They're 30th in Corsi For percentage and 28th in high-danger chances created per 60 minutes. Washington has benefitted from a 12.32% shooting percentage at five-on-five, well above the league average (just above 8%). It all shouts regression.

The Rangers, meanwhile, are due for positive regression, as they have a 6.67% shooting percentage. Plus, we benefit from New York's unlucky start by getting this team at even money. With the end of the Tony DeAngelo distraction, the Rangers can get back to what's really important: winning hockey games.

Pick: Rangers (-110)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday betting preview: Stars to spoil Laine’s Blue Jackets debut

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We got the week started off on the right foot with a profitable Monday. We'll look to keep the momentum going on a quieter day on the ice due to a pair of postponements.

Here are a couple of games I'm looking to bet on Tuesday:

Stars (-110) @ Blue Jackets (-110)

We have yet to see the Blue Jackets put together a strong showing in the first contest of a two-game set. Columbus has been drastically outplayed in the first matchup - controlling an average of just 35.61% of the expected goal share - before stepping things up in the rematch. Patrik Laine's debut won't change that.

The Stars have followed a similar trend, though they haven't been as incompetent in their first go-around. They also hold an edge on special teams and in goal, making them a good value with Jamie Benn back in the lineup.

Pick: Stars (-110)

Flames (-120) @ Jets (+100)

I posted the Flames as a bet versus the Jets on Monday, and I'm going back to the well. The revenge factor is being blown a bit out of proportion early in the season. Teams in the second leg of a back-to-back are 8-6 straight up after losing against the same club the previous night. That's not enough to tilt the scales for me given just how dominant Calgary was Monday.

Winnipeg had an early lead thanks to a pair of power-play goals but the Jets were the inferior team from start to finish. The Flames owned an almost unheard of 75.6% share of the expected goals at five-on-five and a still-impressive 63.59% share overall.

Connor Hellebuyck's heroics earned Winnipeg a point but the team won't have him to lean on in the second half of this back-to-back. Calgary won't have Jacob Markstrom either, but given the Flames' ability to control the balance of play, the Jets' downgrade in goal is a bigger concern.

Pick: Flames (-120)

Ducks (+110) @ Kings (-130)

This one won't be pretty. While the thought of betting on the Ducks sounds as appetizing as boiled chicken, the price here warrants a play. There's very little difference between the Kings and the Ducks, who rank 30th and 31st in expected goal share at five-on-five, respectively.

Anaheim is allowing a lot of quality chances, while Los Angeles is struggling to generate offense. The Kings have created a league-low 38 high-danger chances at five-on-five, while the 96 allowed by the Ducks are second-most. But there's a clearer path to success for Anaheim, which can lean on John Gibson's excellence to earn points. L.A. is flat-out struggling to generate quality offense, suggesting regression is imminent.

This is an inflated price between two evenly matched teams, with the 'dog holding a significant edge in goal. I'll take that every time.

Pick: Ducks (+110)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting preview: Buy the Avs at a bargain

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We gave back Tuesday's profit with a 1-2 night on Thursday, so we'll look to stay in the black ahead of a busy weekend in the NHL.

Here are my favorite bets on the board.

Blue Jackets (-135) @ Blackhawks (+115)
Jan. 29, 8 p.m. ET

We have just one game slated for Friday night, but luckily, it's one I'm keen on betting. I wrote Thursday about the Blue Jackets' tendency to play a lot better their second time seeing a team. Well, this will be Game 1 against the Blackhawks, and it's also a bad spot for Columbus situationally.

The Blue Jackets played at home last night - beating the Panthers in a shootout - and had to fly out late to Chicago after an exhausting game to now take on a much-improved Blackhawks club. Both of these teams are dead-even at five-on-five, controlling 46% of their respective expected goal shares, and are each sitting at 45% when you incorporate special teams.

However, the perception here is the Blackhawks are much worse, which is the main reason for this line. They've been very competitive after a rough opening two-game set against the Lightning and seem to have found some stability in goal with Kevin Lankinen. Chicago is a good value bet at +110 or better.

Pick: Blackhawks (+115)

Islanders (+100) @ Flyers (-120)
Jan. 30, 7 p.m.

Regression looms for a Flyers team that's been among the worst at five-on-five this season. They sit 28th in the NHL with just a 44.4% expected goal share and dead last with a 43.03 Corsi for percentage. They've somehow managed to get out to a 5-2-1 start, but unless they experience a drastic uptick in performance at five-on-five, this team is going to struggle going forward.

The Islanders have been average in that regard, which is right on par with past seasons. You know what you're going to get from this team, and though it's struggled to get points early on, it's too well-coached for these results to continue.

Coming off three consecutive losses, this is an important spot for the Islanders. Expect a strong response from New York, which offers excellent value here at plus money.

Pick: Islanders (+100)

Avalanche (-140) @ Wild (+120)

The Wild have been dominant to start the season, leading the league with a 58.45 xGF% at five-on-five. They've been excellent at generating offense and strong at suppressing it, as well, coming into this game level on points with the Avalanche.

Not to discredit the Wild too much, but we have to take into account that those numbers are exaggerated thanks to the team playing its opening eight games against the Ducks, Kings, and Sharks. This is a massive step up in class, and there's still a big gulf between the two that's not being reflected in this line.

Colorado has a strong 54.48 xGF% and is second in the NHL with a 55.31 CF%. There's no reason to be concerned about the Avalanche despite their mediocre 5-3 start, and we get them at a bargain here thanks to Minnesota's hot start against weaker competition.

Pick: Avalanche (-140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, loves a juicy puck line, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.