With the Dallas Stars playing their 28th game on Sunday, every team has now begun the second half of the NHL season.

That makes this as good a time as any to evaluate the latest Stanley Cup oddsboard, taking what we know from the first half of the campaign and using it to gauge which teams are worth backing, and which need to be avoided at the current price.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Buy

Colorado Avalanche (+550)

It's a short price, but is it short enough? In reality, +550 is buying low on the Avalanche, as we won't see a better number for the rest of this season. Colorado has climbed back within three points of the Golden Knights for the division lead after seven straight wins, and a healthy Cale Makar has finally returned to the Avalanche's lineup.

But it's not just that the Avalanche are winning, it's how they're winning. They're the league's runaway leaders in both xGF% (59.77%) and CF% (59.99%) at five-on-five, and the team is only just hitting its stride. Since March 3, Colorado has posted an otherworldly xGF% of 69.09% at five-on-five. The next-best mark over that span is the Islanders' 57.94%.

Carolina Hurricanes (+1000)

Despite the Lightning's torrid pace, the Hurricanes remain neck-and-neck in the Central Division race. Carolina has impressively managed to keep up despite significant injury woes. Starting goalie Petr Mrazek has played just four games, Teuvo Teravainen has missed more than half the season, and Vincent Trocheck has been on the shelf for the last two weeks.

The Hurricanes rank third in the NHL in xGF% and CF% at five-on-five, and they boast both the league's top power-play unit and a top-10 penalty kill. When fully healthy, this roster is every bit as good as the Lightning, but you're getting it at more than double the price.

Dallas Stars (+3200)

As bad as things have looked for the Stars, there's hope below the surface. They currently sit seventh in the Central, but are fifth on points percentage and still well-positioned to claim the division's final playoff spot. COVID-19 issues hampered them to begin the season, and an injury-ravaged team has also dealt with a handful of weather-related postponements.

Despite the adversity, the underlying numbers are kind to Dallas, a top-10 club in both expected goals and Corsi percentage, and a top-five squad over the past month. Positive regression is expected here.

The road to the Stanley Cup won't be easy, but this is a deep and experienced group that will be getting Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop back over the next few weeks.

Sell

Toronto Maple Leafs (+700)

There's a lot to like about this Leafs roster and the team's to come out of the North Division, but this call boils down to goaltending. Frederik Andersen looks finished, and that's been true for some time now. That puts a lot of pressure on Jack Campbell to rescue Toronto. Could he be the guy? Sure. Should you pay such a short price to find out? Absolutely not.

Looking elsewhere at the goaltending in the North Division sparks plenty of concern about the Leafs heading into the playoffs. Will Connor Hellebuyck stonewall them once more? What about the born-again Mike Smith?

And if Toronto does escape the North, the gauntlet of teams waiting for it on the other side is awfully intimidating. The Leafs' concerns in goal are legitimate and aren't something the league's other top teams need to navigate. Steer clear of them at this short price.

Philadelphia Flyers (+1800)

The same thinking applies to the Flyers, except the concerns run deeper. While Toronto is struggling to get saves, the team is playing excellent hockey overall. But that's not the case for Philadelphia. The Flyers' goaltending is disastrous, and they're also below average at five-on-five and rank in the bottom third on special teams.

The Leafs are a borderline lock to make the playoffs too, while the Flyers will likely miss the postseason. There isn't an ounce of logic that goes into backing Philly at 18-1 when you can get its Eastern Division foes the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins at the same or better prices - you know, teams that will actually make the playoffs.

St. Louis Blues (+1800)

The Blues are only this high up the oddsboard because they won the Stanley Cup two years ago. If you changed their name and jerseys, it would be hard to differentiate them from teams like the Blackhawks or Predators based on the numbers. St. Louis' underlying metrics are really poor, even amid a soft schedule.

The Blues have played 26 of their 32 games this campaign against the Coyotes, Ducks, Kings, and Sharks, but their season is about to get a lot tougher. Of their remaining 24 games, 18 are against the Avalanche, Knights, and Wild. Given how poor the Blues' numbers have been, the increasing difficulty of their schedule, and Jordan Binnington's struggles, it's possible the Kings or Coyotes could beat St. Louis out for the West Division's final playoff spot.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We enter a busy week of hockey at 85-78 (+5.57 units) and looking to heat up again heading into the last week of March - a month that hasn't been kind to us.

Winning some money is a great way to start the week, so let's try to do just that.

Oilers (+110) @ Canadiens (-130)

This is a bad time for the injury bug to hit the Canadiens, as the scorching-hot Oilers arrive in town for a three-game set this week, which comes with massive playoff implications. Already without Ben Chiarot - who's been missed dearly on the left side of Montreal's defense - the Canadiens now must also cope without leading scorer Tyler Toffoli this week, whose forthcoming absence was confirmed this morning.

Montreal can't afford to lose any scoring against the Oilers - who have scored 30 goals over their last seven games - especially without knowing which version of Carey Price will show up. Price appeared to turn a corner after the Canadiens' coaching change, but he's been struggling again over his last two starts.

Montreal's inconsistencies in goal, coupled with injuries up front and on the back end, results in the Oilers being great value at this price.

Pick: Oilers (+110)

Hurricanes (-155) @ Blue Jackets (+135)

This is a prime revenge spot for the Hurricanes after dropping consecutive games (both 3-2 in overtime/shootout) to the Blue Jackets to close out last week. Elvis Merzlikins stood on his head for Columbus during Saturday's win while producing a save-of-the-year candidate in overtime, and Carolina also endured a disallowed goal in the extra frame for offside.

Those two results don't truly reflect what happened in the games. Carolina was dominant while controlling 63.2% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, making the Hurricanes due for serious positive regression tonight in Columbus.

The goaltending matchup is also working in our favor. Alex Nedeljkovic (5.22 GSAA, 4.77 GSAx) starts over James Reimer (0.52 GSAA, minus-1.19 GSAx) for Carolina, and Joonas Korpisalo (minus-5.19 GSAA, minus-8.86 GSAx) gets the nod over Merzlikins (1.52 GSAA, minus-5.03 GSAx) for Columbus. Add in a massive five-on-five and special-teams edge for the Hurricanes, and they're well worth the juice tonight.

Pick: Hurricanes (-155)

Flames (-165) @ Senators (+145)

This feels like the week that will either make or break the Flames' season. They sit four points out of a playoff spot ahead of this stretch of four games over six nights against the Senators and Jets. The first two against Ottawa seem like must-win contests for Darryl Sutter's team.

This isn't to dismiss those pesky Sens as a punching bag, but Ottawa is simply a club the Flames can't afford to drop points against - especially with the Senators down to their fifth-string goaltender. Filip Gustavsson is set to make his first NHL start tonight, and while unproven players can often surprise, let's go by what we know. Gustavsson has posted a pedestrian .892 save percentage during his AHL career, and he now faces a big step up in class.

The Flames have been noticeably better under Sutter while looking like a cohesive unit defensively and when in possession. They're systemically much stronger than under Geoff Ward, and when factoring in their edge at all strengths - and a massive advantage in goal with Jacob Markstrom vs. Gustavsson - there's a strong case to pay up for Calgary on Monday.

Pick: Flames (-165)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We were sitting pretty at over 20 units of profit on the season a few weeks ago, but that's been ground down amid this bad run. We're now at 82-75 (+6.32 units), but the ups and downs are all a part of it.

We'll go on another heater soon, and there's no better time than the present.

Rangers (+120) @ Capitals (-140)
March 19, 7 p.m. ET

Don't look now, but the Rangers are catching fire. They've taken five out of a possible six points over the past three games since Artemi Panarin returned to the lineup, and they've outscored their opposition 17-5 in those contests.

Additionally, Mika Zibanejad has finally busted out of his slump. Zibanejad had three goals and three assists in the second period Wednesday after recording just three goals and eight assists in his first 27 games. With Panarin back and Zibanejad cooking again, this a dangerous club.

However, the Capitals are perhaps the league's hottest team, winning six in a row and 10 of their last 11. Their underlying metrics have been strong over that span but not enough to lose just once. Luck has been on their side, and while Washington looks like a force, regression is on the horizon.

Overall, this is a steep price to pay against a full-strength Rangers team, especially with Lars Eller's injury leaving the Capitals thin down the middle.

Pick: Rangers (+120)

Flames (+135) @ Maple Leafs (-155)
March 20, 7 p.m.

I lean toward the Flames at this price for their matchup against the Leafs on Friday, but I'm staying away there. I'd much rather get involved Saturday, where it's all but certain we'll get a goaltending matchup between David Rittich and Jack Campbell. That's a big win for Toronto.

Campbell has hardly played this season due to injury. However, he's posted impressive numbers with a 4.8 GSAx - the fifth-best mark in the league - and a 3.21 GSAA over just three games.

The Flames counter with Rittich, who's a massive downgrade from Jacob Markstrom. Rittich caught lightning in a bottle in a pair of starts against the Leafs in February, but those were clear outliers. His GSAx sits at minus-4.86 during his four starts since.

Combine Toronto's significant advantage in goal with its strong edge on five-on-five and special teams and the Leafs are well worth paying for at this price.

Pick: Leafs (-155)

Jets (+120) @ Oilers (-140)
March 20, 10 p.m.

The Jets were up against it Thursday in a 2-1 loss to the Oilers, having to fly to Edmonton late after playing an overtime game the night before in Winnipeg. Despite the tough spot, the Jets put in a strong effort, controlling 59.14% of the expected goal share. But Connor McDavid had other plans. The Oilers captain scored a pair and Edmonton held on for an important two points.

That presents us with a nice opportunity to get in on Winnipeg on Saturday at a generous price. The Jets have only lost consecutive games once this season and Connor Hellebuyck will be back in goal after getting a rest Thursday.

I'm still much lower on the Oilers than the rest of the market - they're .500 when you take out their seven wins over the Senators - and Winnipeg has been a much better five-on-five team over the past few weeks. I'll gladly take the better club with the better goalie at plus-money in Saturday's rematch.

Pick: Jets (+120)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

We took home a bit of money over the weekend, but the margins were small as we moved to 81-69 (+11.69 units) on the season.

I've got four plays going Monday night. Here are words on two of them:

Bruins (-115) @ Penguins (-105)

This feels like a very important game for the Bruins. A 4-6-2 run has seen them drop to fourth place in the East Division, a distant 10 points back of first. They have games in hand on all the teams around them, but those are meaningless if they don't result in wins.

Boston was embarrassed by the Rangers in a 4-0 loss Saturday, going 0-for-5 on the power play and generating only 0.37 expected goals at five-on-five - by far its worst mark of the season. However, the Bruins have responded well following poor outings this year. Their previous two lows in xGF% were 35.18% and 34.16%, in losses against the Rangers and Capitals, respectively. They responded to those with marks of 62.95% and 53.72%, both in winning efforts.

I expect similar here, against a Penguins team due for some regression. They've been a below-average xGF% team at five-on-five, and have been especially underwhelming in this regard over the past few weeks, excluding their two games against the Sabres. The 10-3 run they're currently on does not reflect that, so we can sell high here on Pittsburgh.

Pick: Bruins (-115)

Flyers (-120) @ Rangers (+100)

This line's moving quickly in the Flyers' direction, meaning there's a good chance you can hold out for +110 or better on the Rangers. The reasoning behind the movement: Keith Kinkaid is getting the start for New York. But are we sure this is such a bad thing? With Igor Shesterkin still injured, the alternative for the Rangers was Alexandar Georgiev, who's struggled of late. He's posted a miserable minus-6.80 GSAx across his last three starts, and sits 62nd out of 71 goalies in GSAA on the season. Kinkaid's hardly a world-beater, but he's been solid when called upon, and he shut the Bruins out Saturday.

The Flyers respond with Carter Hart, who's having an atrocious season. Hart's posted a minus GSAx in each of his last four appearances, and seven of his last nine. He ranks 67th in GSAA and 69th in GSAx on the year, and is showing no signs of rediscovering his 2019-20 form or recapturing the confidence he needs to perform at a high level.

In addition, the Flyers have struggled in front of him. They've controlled a greater portion of the expected goal share at five-on-five in only five of their last 14 games - three of those were against the Sabres. The Rangers have been excellent in this regard, owning a 54.68% share - sixth in the NHL - over their last 12 games, despite Artemi Panarin playing in three of them. The Bread Man returned to the lineup on the weekend against Boston, in time for the Rangers to control 81.32% (!) of the expected goal share at five-on-five. They're great value on home ice here, especially if they move closer to +110, as suspected.

Pick: Rangers (+100)

Other bets:

• Sabres +205 (vs. Capitals)
• Blackhawks +160 (@ Panthers)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Our streak of eight overtime losses in a row - including six in four days!! - came to an end Tuesday thanks to the Hurricanes. Hopefully, that Jordan Staal goal will trigger a 180 in the luck department.

We're sitting at 77-63 (+13.71 units) on the season heading into Thursday night. Here's what I've got so far, but as always, pay attention to Twitter for any adds.

Capitals (-110) @ Flyers (-110)

Winners of six of their last seven, the Capitals are coming in hot, while the Flyers are reeling a bit after losing three of their previous five, with just one regulation win. But Philadelphia has played much better despite the results not going its way, controlling a terrific 57.89% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the last seven contests.

A big part of the Flyers' struggles has been the play of Carter Hart, who simply can't find his game. The difference between him and Brian Elliott has been massive for this team, and we're getting an Elliott start tonight, which is a big part of the reasoning behind this play. Hart started the 3-1 loss to the Capitals on Sunday, and Washington feels a bit overvalued here because of it, especially with Tom Wilson still suspended.

Pick: Flyers (-110)

Panthers (-140) @ Blue Jackets (+120)

It's hard to find many positives surrounding the Blue Jackets right now, who have lost seven of their last nine and have scored just 11 goals in their previous seven games. However, much like the Flyers, they've been playing a lot better. They're top 10 in expected goal share at five-on-five over their last seven contests and owned a 53% or greater share in five of those games.

A big part of the issue for Columbus has been in net. Since Elvis Merzlikins got hurt, Joonas Korpisalo has started eight straight games. Over that span, the Blue Jackets allowed just 2.31 xGA/60, the fifth-best mark in the league, but are allowing 3.03 GA/60. Korpisalo has struggled, with his minus-7.7 GSAA and minus-11.67 GSAx, ranking 66th and 68th out of 71 goalies this season. Merzlikins is a significant upgrade in both regards.

As for the Panthers, their goaltending situation is much shakier. Chris Driedger is cooling a bit after his hot start, and while Sergei Bobrovsky has been a bit better of late, he still hardly inspires confidence. The underlying numbers have been strong for this team, but I'm reluctant to buy in. There's a lot to like up-front when you look at this roster, but their blue line really isn't all that good. I have a hard time believing this defense can sustain the level they're playing at, and that's especially concerning with a shaky goaltending situation backing them up. The Blue Jackets are good value here in a revenge spot on home ice in Merzlikins' return to the crease.

Pick: Blue Jackets (+120)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

I've inevitably cooled off a bit after an outstanding initial return on investment. However, it's the way I'm losing some of these bets that has me going full tilt.

The Panthers and Wild blew very late leads and lost in overtime last Monday. Los Angeles allowed the tying goal with 44 seconds left in regulation and lost in overtime Friday after missing a chance at an empty net. The Blues blew a 3-0 lead Saturday and fell in overtime. And the Stars came back from 3-0 down Sunday only to lose in a shootout off this ridiculous Pekka Rinne save:

We're at 74-60 (+14.45 units) on the season heading into Monday. Here's hoping for less terrible luck this week.

Golden Knights (-120) @ Wild (+100)
March 8, 8 p.m. ET

I'm ready to hurt again.

I was on the Wild in both of their games against the Golden Knights in Vegas last week. Having watched every second of those two contests, I can say they were very unlucky not to earn at least a split. Minnesota blew a 4-2 lead with less than eight minutes left in the first game thanks in part to Zach Parise's gaffe. In the rematch, the Wild owned 61% of the expected goal share at five-on-five and had 15 high-danger scoring chances to just nine for the Knights.

We've seen time and time again this year just how impressive Minnesota is, and the short line shows the market is starting to buy in. The Wild sit second in the NHL in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five, second in expected goals for per 60 minutes, and eighth in expected goals against per 60. The Knights rank 11th, ninth, and 14th, respectively. Vegas should be a pick'em at best in what's a prime revenge spot for Minnesota.

Pick: Wild (+100)

Kings (-120) @ Ducks (+100)
March 8, 10 p.m.

We had rotten luck betting Kings games over the weekend, but all will be forgiven with a win here. Their impressive 3-0 comeback Saturday ended a four-game skid. They've drastically improved at five-on-five over the past three weeks, ranking 11th in the league with a 51.86 expected goals for percentage during that span. L.A. ranked dead last during the first month of the season with a mark of 40.08%.

Meanwhile, the Ducks have been in a tailspin. Anaheim ranked 28th in expected goals for percentage at five-on-five (45.91%) during a recent nine-game losing skid (0-6-3). The Kings also hold a significant edge in special teams and are good value at such a short price here.

Pick: Kings (-115)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Thursday's bets weren't looking great early, but the Flyers and Rangers both erased deficits for comeback wins, padding our bankroll in the process. I added the Stars as a play on Twitter, which was a loser. So we didn't quite sweep, moving to 70-54 (+17.16 units).

Here's what I'm looking to bet this weekend:

Blues (-135) @ Kings (+115)
Mar. 5, 9 p.m. ET

Initially, I had the Kings down as a bet for Saturday, with these teams scheduled for a back-to-back series to begin the weekend. But it turns out Ville Husso will start on Friday for the Blues, with Jordan Binnington going on Saturday. So we're betting the Kings tonight!

There's excellent value on Los Angeles here with Husso in net for the visitors. The 25-year-old is really struggling this season, allowing four-plus goals in three of his five starts. Over seven appearances he's posted a miserable 3.82 goals-against average and a .879 save percentage while ranking 58th out of 59 goalies in both GSAA/60 and GSAx/60 (minimum five outings).

The Blues simply aren't playing well enough to justify this price with Husso in net. They've managed just 47.01% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over their last seven games while generating only 2.08 xGF/60, ranking 24th and 26th, respectively, in those categories during that span. Conversely, the Kings have posted a respectable 51.44% mark over the same stretch.

There's also a strong chance Cal Petersen starts for the Kings after Jonathan Quick was in the crease for Wednesday's loss. He's been a top-five goaltender this year by just about every metric, and Petersen's presence would make this an even bigger bargain than it already is with Husso between the pipes for St. Louis.

Pick: Kings (+115)

Rangers (-120) @ Devils (+100)
Mar. 6, 1 p.m.

If you tailed Thursday's article then we cashed together on the Rangers, and while it was a 6-1 drubbing, we were a bit fortunate. The Devils were dominant in the first half of this game, leading 1-0 and outshooting the Rangers 17-6 when Chris Kreider's power-play goal evened the score.

The goal seemed to deflate the Devils, who didn't recover. However, New Jersey dominated the underlying metrics, owning 62.15% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, and posting a 64.32 CF%. Igor Shesterkin was excellent as usual, while it was simply an off night for MacKenzie Blackwood, who allowed four goals on just 15 shots before Aaron Dell gave up two on four in relief. The Rangers scored six goals on just 1.83 expected.

Generating offense has been an issue for the Rangers without Artemi Panarin, as they've managed just 1.93 xGF/60 over their last three games. For perspective, the Red Wings rank 30th in the NHL this season with a mark of 2.35 xGF/60. The Rangers will regress, while the Devils are in for a much better day here if they replicate their five-on-five success.

Alexandar Georgiev is also starting for the Rangers after Shesterkin was hurt toward the end of Thursday's game. Combine the downgrade in goal for the visitors with a much better outing for Blackwood after a sure outlier on Thursday, and we're getting good value with the hosts in a big revenge spot. Let's just hope and pray New Jersey can stay out of the box.

Pick: Devils (+100)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A rocky start to the week has dropped me to 68-53 (+16.52 units) on the season. There was nothing fun about watching the Panthers and Wild blow late leads on Monday night, only to lose in overtime.

But that's hockey, and we've had a few of those go our way this year as well.

Here are a couple of plays I've singled out for Thursday.

Rangers (-115) @ Devils (-105)

I enjoyed betting the Devils early in the season, but they've managed just 43.18% of the expected goal share at five-on-five across their last seven games. That number drops even further at all strengths, with the Devils struggling a great deal on special teams. Their power play ranks 27th in the league, while the penalty kill is dead last by a wide margin with just a 63% success rate. To put that miserable number into perspective, the Red Wings are second-worst, sitting at 70.4%.

To compound matters, New Jersey will be without captain Nico Hischier once again after he took a puck to the face in Saturday's game against the Capitals. The Rangers appear to be getting Kaapo Kakko back - he hasn't played since Feb. 18 - and while Artemi Panarin remains away from the team for the fifth game, they've been managing well in his absence with 52.48% of the expected goal share at five-on-five.

Oddsmakers were too low on the Devils early on, and after finally catching up, there seems to be an overcorrection happening now. They're also too low on a Rangers team playing strong hockey without their leading scorer. We're getting a bargain on the Blueshirts on Thursday.

Pick: Rangers (-115)

Flyers (-120) @ Penguins (+110)

After cashing on the Penguins on Tuesday, I'm really liking this bounce-back spot for the Flyers. The Pens have struggled in the second of two-game sets, putting in much more convincing performances in the initial meeting. They've lost the second game in three of the last four occasions after winning the first, and the underlying numbers show that's hardly a coincidence.

Thursday's ask is even tougher as they're once again without Sidney Crosby after rallying impressively in the captain's absence in the opener. Meanwhile, the Flyers are getting healthy, and have no notable absences after Travis Konecny returned to the lineup on Tuesday.

Tuesday's scoreline was a bit flattering for the Penguins, who capitalized on a rough outing from Carter Hart. The young netminder has had his share of struggles this season, but we won't have to worry about that here as Brian Elliott is expected to get the start. The man they call "Moose" has been nothing short of spectacular this season, ranking third in the NHL in GSAA/60 among goalies with at least five starts. He's also posted a terrific 4.41 GSAx, ranking ninth in the league, while Hart sits 64th out of 69 goalies with a minus-7.84 mark.

Pick: Flyers (-120)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Another split on Saturday takes me to 17-8 on this run, but that's just on the picks I write about.

I'm sitting at 66-48 on the season entering the week after going 2-3 over the weekend, resting at +19.55 units.

Let's get above that 20-unit mark again, starting with the following games I'm eyeing for the next two nights. And remember, any added bets will be posted on Twitter for full transparency.

Hurricanes (-120) @ Panthers (+100)
Mar. 1, 7 p.m. ET

I really had to sweat out my Hurricanes bet on Saturday, with the game between these teams ending in a shootout after Carolina blew a 2-0 lead and almost lost late in regulation. The Panthers, meanwhile, are reviving the Cardiac Cats nickname with their third-period heroics of late, and the results have been well-deserved, according to all the underlying metrics.

After starting the season well, Florida has found another gear while owning 59.6% of the expected goal share at five-on-five over the team's last six games. The club's CF% also sits at 57.5% during that span.

In addition, the Panthers hold the edge in tonight's goaltending matchup, with Chris Driedger getting the nod after Sergei Bobrovsky started in Saturday's loss. Bobrovsky ranks 55th in the NHL in GSAA and 63rd in GSAx, while Driedger enters the contest sitting sixth and 15th in those two categories, respectively.

For the Hurricanes, the difference between their netminders is negligible, though it works in our favor to see Alex Nedeljkovic starting ahead of James Reimer.

Pick: Panthers (+100)

Wild (+125) @ Golden Knights (-145)
Mar. 1, 10 p.m.

We're getting really good value here with a Wild team that the market continues to undervalue. Minnesota has been good this season, and all the underlying numbers support its strong start. At five-on-five, the Wild rank first in the NHL in HDCF% and second in xGF%. They're also ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes while allowing the third-fewest per 60.

The club ranks ahead of the Golden Knights in every significant category, and while I'm not suggesting the Wild are better, they're certainly playing that way right now.

Ride the hot team here, because passing on the Wild at this price is tough given how the squad has been playing over the first six weeks of the season.

Pick: Wild (+125)

Sabres (+120) @ Rangers (-140);
Mar. 2, 7 p.m.

This is one of a few games I'm looking at for Tuesday, with the Penguins, Red Wings, and Stars also jumping out as teams providing solid value early.

The lookahead line for this matchup has the Rangers at -140, a price I'd jump on given the state of the Sabres right now. They're in absolute shambles, with no end in sight. The Sabres aren't getting production from their top players, they're saddled with several terrible contracts, their starting goaltender is out for at least a month, and the team is now dealing with an unhappy and unsettled Jack Eichel.

Eichel's return on Sunday did nothing for Buffalo, which was shut out in back-to-back games over the weekend, and the club hasn't scored a five-on-five goal over its last eight periods. The Sabres rank 28th in expected goal share at five-on-five, which is especially bad considering they sat fourth after the first two weeks of the season. Since then they've been dead last in the NHL with a miserable 41.6% share.

Conversely, the Rangers rank a respectable 11th this campaign, and they continue to play well despite Artemi Panarin's absence. New York holds a significant advantage over the Sabres at five-on-five, as well as in goal, where Igor Shesterkin has posted strong GSAA and GSAx numbers. Carter Hutton, meanwhile, is 1-6 with a sub-.900 save percentage, ranking 47th in GSAA and 46th out of 50 goalies in Goals Above Replacement (via Evolving-Hockey).

Pick: Rangers (-140)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A split on Thursday takes us to 16-7 on this current run as we look to finish off a strong February.

With injury uncertainties it was difficult to write this in advance, but now that we've got more clarity there's still value on the board heading into Saturday night.

Hurricanes (-115) @ Panthers (-105)

We're getting an excellent number with the Hurricanes here in what's setting up as the ideal goaltending matchup between Sergei Bobrovsky for Florida and James Reimer likely starting for Carolina.

Bobrovsky ranks 61st among all goaltenders in the NHL in GSAx with a minus-7.52 mark, and while his surface stats look improved of late, two of those starts came against the Red Wings. He was lit up for eight goals on 49 shots - an .836 save percentage - in two starts against the Lightning, and now faces a Carolina team with an equally potent offense.

In fact, the Hurricanes actually rate as the league's best five-on-five offense by a decent margin so far this season, generating 2.84 expected goals per 60 minutes. They also boast a top-10 power play. The Panthers have been one of the league's better stories early on, but I have doubts about the sustainability when I look at this roster top to bottom. This is a great price to get in on one of the league's best teams.

Pick: Hurricanes (-115)

Canadiens (-130) @ Jets (+110)

I was on the Canadiens on Thursday and got burned as they blew an early 3-1 lead. There's a lot that went into the loss, and to blame it all on Carey Price isn't fair, but he's a big part of why they lost that game.

Price let in a brutal go-ahead goal to Nate Thompson in the third period, which proved to be the game-winner, just minutes after the Canadiens did well to kill off a pair of penalties. It was a deflating goal and completely took the wind out of their sails. It's been a theme for them of late, with Price letting in soft goals in recent starts against both the Senators and Maple Leafs that have cost the Habs dearly.

It looks like they've learned their lesson, as Jake Allen is getting the start Saturday. Allen has been nothing short of spectacular for Montreal, ranking top 10 in the NHL in GSAA and GSAx, while Price sits 64th out of 68 goalies in both categories. His struggles have plagued this team and it's time the torch is passed to the Fredericton, New Brunswick, native.

The massive uptick between the pipes makes the Canadiens worthy of this price, even without Josh Anderson, who isn't expected to play. Add in the fact the Jets are one of the league's worst five-on-five teams going up against one of the best, and I'm willing to bite again. Let's hope I don't live to regret it once again.

Pick: Canadiens (-130)

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.