All posts by Alex Moretto

North Division playoff preview

Anticipation is ramping up north of the border ahead of the first all-Canadian playoff matchups since 2015. The Leafs and Canadiens will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1979, while the last series between the Oilers and Jets happened in 1990.

1. Maple Leafs (-320) vs. 4. Canadiens (+240)

Overall

MAPLE LEAFS STAT CANADIENS
35-14-7 Record 24-21-11
7-2-1 H2H 3-6-1
55.63 (2nd) xGF%* 53.00 (10th)
52.35 (10th) CF%* 54.31 (6th)
56.78 (2nd) HDCF%* 51.88 (12th)
9.41 (4th) SH%* 7.52 (25th)
.922 (8th) SV%* .914 (22nd)
20.0 (16th) PP% 19.2 (18th)
78.5 (23rd) PK% 78.5 (22nd)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

DATE HOME-AWAY xG* CF%* HDCF* GOALIES
1/13 TOR 5 - MTL 4 OT 3.26 - 3.78 50.09 - 49.91 12 - 13 Andersen - Price
2/10 MTL 2 - TOR 4 2.36 - 3.66 56.73 - 43.27 10 - 11 Price - Andersen
2/13 TOR 1 - MTL 2 2.12 - 1.9 42.05 - 57.95 8 - 8 Andersen - Price
2/20 MTL 3 - TOR 5 2.05 - 2.62 50.31 - 49.69 12 - 9 Price - Andersen
4/7 TOR 3 - MTL 2 2.81 - 2.21 47.9 - 52.1 15 - 7 Campbell - Allen
4/12 MTL 4 - TOR 2 4.23 - 2.54 53.3 - 46.7 16 - 13 Allen - Campbell
4/28 MTL 1 - TOR 4 1.82 - 2.24 48.41 - 51.59 6 - 9 Allen - Campbell
5/3 MTL 3 - TOR 2 OT 2.65 - 2.59 40.04 - 59.96 5 - 9 Allen - Campbell
5/6 TOR 5 - MTL 2 4.16 - 2.42 62.06 - 37.94 16 - 7 Campbell - Primeau
5/8 TOR 3 MTL 2 2.09 - 1.33 48.1 - 51.9 9 - 7 Campbell - Allen

*all strengths

The two Original Six franchises, which claim to hail from the mecca of hockey, will meet for the first time in the postseason in over 40 years, with a lot more than bragging rights up for grabs. The Leafs, aiming to win their first playoff series since 2004, are desperate to avoid another postseason failure, while the Canadiens are out to prove they're the force they resembled early in the season, as opposed to the toothless team that fell backwards into the playoffs.

The Leafs, universally regarded as the best team in the division, dominated the North from start to finish. They had a winning record against every team, sat atop the division in xGF%, and were far and away the most efficient at generating offense at five-on-five. Alex Kerfoot is the only roster player to finish below a 50 xGF% at five-on-five, and he came awfully close (49.93). Each of Toronto's top-six forwards finished above 55%, with Auston Matthews and the returning Zach Hyman surpassing the 60% mark.

Few teams are as good at driving play as the Leafs, who are also among the best at capitalizing on their opportunities, finishing fourth in five-on-five shooting percentage. That tally jumped a full point from last season, which could be in line for regression but is likelier just a product of the team's quality up front.

The only real concerns surrounding Toronto heading into the playoffs are special teams - both units finished in the bottom half of the league - and goaltending. Now goaltending shouldn't necessarily be a concern considering the season Jack Campbell put together - he finished top 16 in both GSAA and GSAx - but the body of work was small, and he's still a relatively unproven commodity who hasn't appeared in an NHL playoff game.

Montreal's season-long numbers pale in comparison to Toronto's, prompting questions as to what sort of chance it stands in this series. To answer that properly, the Canadiens' season has to be broken down in parts: They looked like a juggernaut early, stumbled into a slump prompting a coaching change, and then fell off a cliff trying to navigate a daunting second-half schedule brought on by a COVID-induced pause. As a result, it was very much a tale of two seasons for Montreal.

The team didn't have back-to-back nights off following the late-March pause, playing 25 games in 44 nights over the final six weeks of the season, including five back-to-backs. The Habs were at a rest disadvantage in 19 of those contests, including 13 of their last 15, and each of their last five games against the Leafs - two being their fourth matchup in six nights, two their third in four, and one their fifth in seven.

The overloaded schedule cost Montreal dearly, as it was near the league lead in man-games lost since the start of April, with Brendan Gallagher, Shea Weber, Carey Price, Tomas Tatar, Joel Armia, and Paul Byron among those missing significant time. The Canadiens will have a fully healthy lineup for Game 1 for the first time since early in the season, which is essential given how this team needs to play to succeed.

Montreal's strength is its depth, and it needs to play relentless, in-your-face hockey to be successful. The only way to maintain that sort of intensity is to continuously roll four lines. When healthy, that's not a problem for them. The Canadiens like to use their speed in transition and play heavy on the forecheck. When all four lines are rolling, they're capable of getting pucks deep, grinding down low, and wearing teams down. It's exactly the sort of style the Leafs have struggled with in years past, and while this season's team seems to have adapted, we've still yet to see the results in a playoff-type environment.

Montreal played this style in the first half of the season with a bit more of a normal schedule, and the returns were significantly better. Over the first 31 games - up until the COVID-19 pause - the Canadiens were second in the NHL in goal share (59.58%), expected goal share (56.39%), and CF% (56.29%) at five-on-five. Post-pause, they were 30th in goal share (40.79%), 18th in expected goal share (48.89%), and 13th in CF% (51.75%). If they're going to be competitive in this series, they'll have to return to their early-season form and hope the second-half results were indeed an anomaly created by a rash of injuries and monstrous schedule.

If we treat the regular season as two separate entities for Montreal, then we'd have to look to the first four head-to-head meetings between these teams for a more appropriate picture of what we might expect in this series.

Toronto still came out ahead in those meetings with a 3-1-0 record but relied heavily on what was at the time a scorching-hot power play. It has since run dry. The Canadiens outscored the Leafs and controlled 54% of the expected goal share at five-on-five in those games. Now special teams can be streaky, and if Toronto can find a way to replicate that success on the power play - it certainly has the personnel - then this series could be over in a hurry. For Montreal to succeed, it needs to keep Toronto's power play at bay and get back to the strong five-on-five play that's typically carried this team in years past.

Whether that's enough for Montreal to actually win the series remains to be seen, but it's the blueprint for at least keeping it competitive.

For the Leafs, winning Game 1 feels massive. A loss would breathe hope into a Canadiens team in desperate need of some and send panic signals flying across Toronto. The Leafs have dealt with very little adversity this season, and there would be no worse time to start for a team with a massive mental hurdle to clear in this postseason.

Toronto should win this series, but -320 is a steep price to pay. A lot has to go right for Montreal to pull off the upset, so I'm not rushing to bet +240 either. But a healthy and rested Canadiens team will make the Leafs earn it, so I'd rather scoop up a generous price on this series to go the distance.

Pick: Over 6.5 games (+220)

2. Oilers (odds) vs. 3. Jets (odds)

Overall

OILERS STAT JETS
35-18-2 Record 30-23-3
7-2-0 H2H 2-7-0
49.82 (15th) xGF%* 46.79 (23rd)
49.82 (16th) CF%* 48.3 (18th)
49.50 (16th) HDCF%* 44.63 (29th)
8.85 (7th) SH%* 8.60 (9th)
.915 (21st) SV%* .923 (6th)
28.1 (1st) PP% 23.0 (7th)
82.2 (10th) PK% 80.5 (14th)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

DATE HOME-AWAY xG* CF%* HDCF* GOALIES
1/24 WPG 3 - EDM 4 2.63 - 4.31 45.9 - 54.1 13 - 21 Brossoit - Koskinen
1/26 WPG 6 - EDM 4 3.89 - 2.02 53.3 - 46.7 15 - 9 Hellebuyck - Koskinen
2/15 EDM 6 - WPG 5 3.09 - 2.02 57.28 - 42.72 14 - 6 Koskinen - Hellebuyck
2/17 EDM 2 - WPG 3 3.21 - 2.81 45.99 - 54.01 8 - 8 Smith - Hellebuyck
3/18 EDM 2 - WPG 1 1.41 - 2.05 46.3 - 53.7 3 - 7 Koskinen - Brossoit
3/20 EDM 4 - WPG 2 3.92 - 2.7 54.64 - 45.36 15 - 8 Smith - Hellebuyck
4/17 WPG 0 - EDM 3 1.87 - 3.17 45.5 - 54.5 3 - 18 Hellebuyck - Smith
4/26 WPG 1 - EDM 6 2.22 - 2.32 49.21 - 50.79 12 - 5 Hellebuyck - Smith
4/28 WPG 1 - EDM 3 2.25 - 4.43 44.29 - 55.71 9 - 12 Hellebuyck - Koskinen

*all strengths

Connor McDavid produced arguably the greatest individual season in NHL history, and the surging Oilers will hope it translates to postseason success as they head into a first-round series against a Jets team that lost its way over the season's final month.

Winnipeg doesn't deserve a free pass for losing nine games in regulation over its final 12, but its struggles down the stretch can largely be attributed to Nikolaj Ehlers' absence. Ehlers is overlooked in a division with McDavid and Matthews, but he was having a Hart-caliber season before a shoulder injury kept him out of the team's final nine games.

Ehlers was one of just three Jets players to control over 55% of the expected goal share. He was also the team leader in CF% at five-on-five, and Winnipeg scored an astounding 67.99% of its goals this season when he was on the ice. To put that into perspective, the Oilers scored 68.53% of their goals with McDavid on the ice. Winnipeg needs him back and healthy - he's been a full participant in practice, so it appears to be all systems go - for this to be a competitive series.

The Jets also need Connor Hellebuyck to be at his best. The netminder is a close second on the list of players in this series who can single-handily win their team a game, behind McDavid. The reigning Vezina winner pieced together another excellent campaign, finishing second in the NHL with 13.72 goals saved above expected, but he struggled a great deal against Edmonton.

He posted a miserable 3.96 goals-against average, .877 save percentage, and minus-6.3 GSAx in seven games versus the Oilers. He saved six goals below expected against Edmonton, compared to 20 above expected against the rest of the North Division. He saved at least 1.5 goals above expected in 12 starts this year - not a single one of those was against the Oilers. There's no reason to believe this is anything other than an outlier - he saved nearly four goals above expected in three starts versus Edmonton last season, allowing just three goals at five-on-five.

Improved play from Hellebuyck will go a long way in helping the Jets not get absolutely roasted by McDavid like they did during the regular season because, at the end of the day, these are the two guys who will likely decide this series. McDavid had 22 points on 34 goals scored by the Oilers against the Jets this year, including at least two in all nine games.

Winnipeg simply didn't have an answer for McDavid this season. The Oilers controlled two-thirds of the expected goal share at even strength with McDavid on the ice and scored over 80% of the goals. McDavid is the best player in the world by a comfortable margin, capable of winning any game - or series, for that matter - on his own, and Leon Draisaitl is an elite running mate. Still, what this Edmonton roster has in star power, it lacks in depth.

Not letting McDavid score 2.45 points per game in this series is a must for the Jets, and it puts added pressure on them winning the remainder of the matchups. One of Winnipeg's biggest assets is its depth up front - there's not a weak spot on that top six - and Edmonton is vulnerable when McDavid isn't on the ice. The Oilers probably have the worst bottom-six forward group in the playoffs.

Guys like Andrew Copp, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton have also had really productive seasons for Winnipeg. They'll have ample opportunity to provide secondary scoring that the Oilers struggle to get - the kind that typically proves vital in the postseason. A strong contribution from the bottom six, coupled with the elevated playoff performances we've come to expect from Winnipeg's stars up front, would make things very interesting in this series.

Edmonton's head-to-head dominance over the Jets this year resulted in an inflated series price, but there's more than meets the eye when you dig into the scheduling. The Oilers had the rest advantage in seven of the nine meetings - the other two were neutral. The Oilers played the Jets with at least four days off in between games on three separate occasions, with Winnipeg having at most one day off. In five of the nine meetings, the Jets came in facing either a back-to-back or three-in-four situation. They also were without Ehlers and Lowry for the last two, both losses.

The teams will be on a level playing field in the playoffs. While the Oilers have the two best skaters in the series, the Jets' significant edge in depth up front, coupled with improved play from Hellebuyck - he can't possibly play any worse than he did in the season series against Edmonton - creates some real value on the underdog at this price.

Pick: Jets (+175)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

East Division playoff preview

Four of the last five Stanley Cup Finals have featured a team competing in these East Division playoffs. Ahead of the 2021 postseason, each of these four squads has a case to be made as a possible finalist.

The East is also where the fun will get underway, with Game 1 of Capitals versus Bruins kicking off the playoffs Saturday night, followed by Game 1 of Penguins versus Islanders on Sunday afternoon.

1. Penguins (-145) vs. 4. Islanders (+120)

Overall

PENGUINS STAT ISLANDERS
37-16-3 Record 32-17-7
6-2-0 H2H 2-4-2
49.45 (18th) xGF%* 54.07 (4th)
51.21 (12th) CF%* 49.31 (17th)
48.07 (21st) HDCF%* 56.21 (3rd)
9.25 (6th) SH%* 8.37 (12th)
.925 (4th) SV%* .931 (3rd)
23.7 (4th) PP% 18.8 (21st)
77.4 (26th) PK% 83.7 (6th)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

DATE HOME-AWAY xG* CF%* HDCF* GOALIES
2/6 NYI 4 - PIT 3 3.54 - 3.01 46.36 - 53.64 15 - 18 Varlamov - Jarry
2/11 NYI 3 - PIT 4 SO 3.6 - 2.71 47.33 - 52.67 17 - 10 Varlamov - DeSmith
2/18 PIT 4 - NYI 1 4.62 - 2.64 55.95 - 44.05 13 - 11 Jarry - Varlamov
2/20 PIT 3 - NYI 2 1.52 - 2.53 38.86 - 61.14 6 - 13 Jarry - Varlamov
2/27 NYI 3 - PIT 4 OT 2.83 - 3.39 47 - 53 17 - 11 Varlamov - Jarry
2/28 NYI 2 - PIT 0 4.29 - 1.86 57.18 - 42.82 17 - 9 Sorokin - DeSmith
3/27 PIT 6 - NYI 3 3.35 - 2.43 51.92 - 48.08 11 - 9 Jarry - Sorokin
3/29 PIT 2 - NYI 1 1.56 - 1.64 51.19 - 48.81 7 - 13 Jarry - Varlamov

*all strengths

The Penguins last reached the playoffs in 2019 when the Islanders swept them out of the first round. Postseason success has eluded the franchise since it won back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017, with Pittsburgh most recently losing to the Canadiens in last year's play-in round. But the Penguins enter these playoffs with renewed optimism after securing their first division title since 2014.

They did so in impressive fashion, navigating the league's deepest division during a treacherous season - one in which they were forced to used 12 defensemen because of injuries, were without Evgeni Malkin for 23 games, and had their GM resign two weeks into the campaign. Pittsburgh had just six players suit up in 48 games or more, the fewest of any playoff squad.

That makes it hard to know exactly what to make of this Penguins team. Pittsburgh's underlying metrics weren't the prettiest, and the team benefited from a high PDO. That typically shouts regression, but is a finally healthy lineup enough to erase those concerns?

Only time will tell, but Pittsburgh should be confident entering this series after finding renewed success against the Islanders. The Penguins have lost to New York just twice in regulation since that sweep in 2019, with their speed giving the Islanders fits and their finishing ability up front emerging as a deciding factor. But the biggest difference has been Mike Sullivan beating Barry Trotz at his own game. Pittsburgh has shown a willingness to adopt a more patient game plan, ditching the eagerness New York punished in 2019.

An upset will require a near-flawless effort from Islanders who - for the second year in a row - saw their season go pear-shaped in the second half of the campaign. They still managed an impressive run to the conference finals last year, but only after a four-month pause that allowed them to hit the reset button. Trotz recently called the postseason itself a reset, but this is a tight timeline for New York to rediscover its form. The Islanders simply haven't looked the same without Anders Lee, and Kyle Palmieri hasn't been able to fill the void.

The Islanders pride themselves on being a strong five-on-five team, but they've posted an underwhelming 48.29 expected goals for percentage since acquiring Palmieri, with Michael Dal Colle and Mathew Barzal the only players sitting above 50%. Trotz continues to throw his lines in the blender in hopes of finding a winning recipe, but nothing seems to be working. The power play remains ineffective - that's been the case for three years now - but it's the impressive five-on-five play that's carried this team in past seasons. If the Islanders can't find success in that area, this series will be over in a hurry.

New York's offense is too reliant on Barzal, and its defensemen don't create enough from the blue line. It leaves the Islanders with a razor-thin margin for success, while the Penguins have an embarrassment of riches up front. We already know the top six will feast - Sidney Crosby and Malkin both averaged at least a point per game against the Islanders this season - but Jeff Carter's arrival has given Pittsburgh a dynamic third line. Carter and Jared McCann each had 11 points in 14 games after the Penguins acquired Carter from the Kings, and linemate Frederick Gaudreau ended the year with six points in as many contests after returning to the lineup. Many hands make light work, and that appears to be Pittsburgh's path to success in these playoffs.

The Islanders' strong suit is goaltending, which can be a great equalizer in the playoffs. New York will lean heavily on Semyon Varlamov - the league leader in goals saved above average - while Tristan Jarry's inconsistencies could open the door for an upset. The Penguins are one bad spell of goaltending away from another first-round exit, but the same can be said of any team. They're also one hot Jarry away from another Stanley Cup, which isn't true of every club.

The Islanders last beat a playoff team on April 6. They're 0-4-2 since then, with just six goals scored. They were a pedestrian 11-13-4 on the road this season - the Penguins were 22-4-2 at home - and lost all four games at PPG Paints Arena. They're limping into the playoffs and - barring a lights-out effort from Varlamov - lack the firepower to give Pittsburgh a real scare in this series.

Pick: Penguins (-145)

2. Capitals (+115) vs. 3. Bruins (-140)

Overall

CAPITALS STAT BRUINS
36-15-5 Record 33-16-7
4-4-0 H2H 4-2-2
51.78 (13th) xGF%* 53.33 (8th)
51.36 (11th) CF%* 54.88 (3rd)
53.11 (8th) HDCF%* 50.44 (15th)
10.09 (2nd) SH%* 7.1 (30th)
.916 (17th) SV%* .920 (13th)
24.8 (3rd) PP% 21.9 (9th)
84.0 (5th) PK% 86.0 (2nd)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

DATE HOME-AWAY xG* CF%* HDCF* GOALIES
1/30 WSH 4 - BOS 3 OT 1.74 - 4.26 34.5 - 65.5 9 - 18 Vanecek - Rask
2/1 WSH 3 - BOS 5 1.93 - 2.84 45.51 - 54.49 4 - 4 Vanecek - Halak
3/3 BOS 1 - WSH 2 SO 1.02 - 2.64 42.47 - 57.53 4 - 9 Rask - Vanecek
3/5 BOS 5 - WSH 1 1.96 - 2.35 49.93 - 50.07 11 - 11 Halak - Vanecek
4/8 WSH 2 - BOS 4 2.58 - 3.04 44.27 - 55.73 9 - 9 Samsonov - Swayman
4/11 BOS 1 - WSH 8 1.95 - 3.64 44.55 - 44.55 - 55.45 7 - 11 Vladar - Vanecek
4/18 BOS 6 - WSH 3 3.18 - 3.07 46.52 - 46.52 - 53.48 9 - 11 Rask - Vanecek
5/11 WSH 2 - BOS 1 2.39 - 1.43 61.68 - 38.32  10 - 4 Vanecek - Swayman

*all strengths

The Capitals and Bruins have combined for 25 postseason appearances and 25 series wins in the past 14 seasons. Yet this will be just their second playoff meeting in that span - and the first since Joel Ward scored the overtime winner for Washington in Game 7 of their 2012 Eastern Conference quarterfinal matchup.

This is the first season since 2014-15 in which the Capitals failed to win their division, and their punishment is a Bruins team that enters the playoffs as hot as any. Boston struggled to find consistency through much of the season's first three months, but a trio of deadline acquisitions has seen this team rediscover its Cup potential and re-establish itself as a top-five club.

Boston added Taylor Hall, Mike Reilly, and Curtis Lazar on April 11, hours after the Bruins suffered an 8-1 loss at the hands of the Capitals. All three have made a significant difference, but none more so than Hall. Boston leads the league with a 63.09 expected goals for percentage at five-on-five with Hall in the lineup - the only team to crack the 60% mark over that span. The Bruins are 12-3-1 in those games, and the second line of Hall, David Krejci, and Craig Smith has been an absolute force. Hall has an expected goals for percentage of 70.1 at five-on-five, with Smith (68.63%) and Krejci (67.45%) not far behind. The trio has also combined for 19 goals and 45 points in 16 games.

That's a nightmare for the rest of the East. The old way to beat the Bruins was to focus defensive efforts on the top line of David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Patrice Bergeron - two 100-point players and the league's best two-way center. It's no longer so straightforward. The emergence of Boston's second line has made the top six a matchup nightmare.

Lazar, meanwhile, has reinvigorated a fourth line that was once a liability. After being significantly out-chanced at five-on-five without him, Boston's bottom forward line has earned nearly 60% of the expected goal share since Lazar's arrival. This is a completely different team than it was before the deadline, so much so that it's arguably wise to ignore everything that happened previously.

What does this mean for the Capitals? Well, it's certainly concerning. Washington is a team that seems to defy logic, always outperforming its otherwise mediocre metrics. But there's clear cause for concern ahead of the postseason. Some of the Capitals' best five-on-five producers are also their worst drivers of play - these issues have just been masked by what feels like an unsustainable finishing rate.

Alex Ovechkin (12%), Nicklas Backstrom (12.4%), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (12.6%) all posted career-best on-ice shooting percentages this season, with all of them finishing well above career averages that hover around 9-10%. As a result, the Capitals finished second in five-on-five shooting percentage on the season, with the Bruins finishing second-last. But Boston and Washington posted nearly identical tallies in that regard over the final 20 games, so regression for both teams - positive, in the Bruins' case - is already underway.

It's just one of a few concerns surrounding the Capitals ahead of this first round. Health and goaltending also remain legitimate question marks. Ovechkin, Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and John Carlson are all battling through injuries, and it feels like we're not privy to the full picture regarding Kuznetsov.

In goal, which of Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov can Washington rely upon? The former allowed more than eight goals above expected this season, and the latter close to seven; they ranked 72nd and 66th, respectively, in that regard among all goaltenders. That's a massive drop-off from what Tuukka Rask managed - in a down year, no less - and a legitimate worry against Boston's firepower.

To have success in this series, Washington will likely need to run hot on the power play. That's been this special-teams juggernaut's recipe for success for years now, but it's tough to count on given the standard of officiating in the playoffs. The Capitals also scored nine power-play goals against Boston this year compared to just 4.79 expected, which again speaks to looming regression.

Boston boasts one of the league's best penalty kills, allowing the fewest expected goals against and the fewest high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes while shorthanded this season; overall, the team's penalty kill ranked second in efficiency at 86%. As long as they keep Washington's power play from truly catching fire, the Bruins will find their way to the second round for a fourth successive season.

Pick: Bruins (-140)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Central Division playoff preview

The Lightning face a daunting road while defending their crown after finishing behind two of the league's most analytically sound teams, and ahead of a club that was among the hottest during the second half.

But goaltending could reign supreme, even with all the offensive firepower in the Central Division. The division features playoff teams that finished first, second, and fourth in five-on-five SV%. And Andrei Vasilevskiy is in the crease for the Central's other postseason-bound club.

Let's break it down.

1. Hurricanes (-240) vs. 4. Predators (+190)

Overall

Hurricanes Stat Predators
36-12-8 Record 31-23-2
6-2-0 H2H 2-5-1
53.89 (6th) xGF%* 49.76 (17th)
54.95 (3rd) CF%* 49.46 (16th)
55.41 (6th) HDCF%* 50.62 (15th)
7.21 (28th) SH%* 7.76 (24th)
.935 (2nd) SV%* .936 (1st)
25.6 (2nd) PP% 17.6 (24th)
85.2 (3rd) PK% 75.4 (29th)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

Date Home-Away xG* CF%* HDCF* Goalies
1/18 NSH 2 - CAR 4 1.76 - 2.61 49.76 - 50.24 6 - 11 Rinne - Reimer
3/2 NSH 2 - CAR 4 1.98 - 3.23 44.25 - 55.75 9 - 11 Saros/Rinne - Reimer
3/9 CAR 3 - NSH 2 OT 2.93 - 3.58 47.91 - 52.09 14 - 12 Nedeljkovic - Rinne
3/11 CAR 5 - NSH 1 2.67 - 2.89 49.33 - 50.67 8 - 10 Reimer - Rinne
4/15 CAR 4 - NSH 1 2.65 - 2.23 51.4 - 48.6 8 - 8 Mrazek - Saros
4/17 CAR 3 - NSH 1 6.72 - 2.51 61.5 - 38.5 29 - 10 Nedeljkovic - Saros
5/8 NSH 3 - CAR 1 3.66 - 1.66 57.49 - 42.51 16 - 7 Saros - Nedeljkovic
5/10 NSH 5 - CAR 0 2.54 - 1.35 49.94 - 50.06 8 - 8  Rinne - Mrazek

*all strengths

Go look at this Hurricanes team and find me the weak spot. Seriously, are you looking?

Jordan Staal is the third-line center behind Sebastian Aho and Vincent Trocheck. Six Hurricanes wingers are posting at least a 15-goal pace in a standard 82-game season. They're so loaded on the blue line that two NHL-caliber defensemen will be watching Game 1 from the press box. The team boasts goaltenders who rank second and third in the NHL in GSAA/60 (minimum 10 starts). Rod Brind'Amour is a front-runner for the Jack Adams Award, and his assistants oversee the league's No. 2 power play and No. 3 penalty kill. This club is an absolute juggernaut.

Over the past two seasons, depth up front prevented the Hurricanes from taking the next step, particularly down the middle. Enter Trocheck.

He's been the club's missing link while filling a gaping hole as the second-line center and doing so with aplomb. Carolina is controlling 56.73% of the expected goal share at five-on-five when Trocheck is on the ice, as he's been the catalyst for one of the NHL's most productive second lines alongside Nino Niederreiter and Martin Necas. The Hurricanes have been nearly impossible to contain with that trio playing behind a typically dominant top line, and ahead of an impressively efficient checking line.

The Predators learned that the hard way this season, but they're coming in hot after posting a 20-7-1 second-half record. They did well just to make the playoffs after many were expecting GM David Poile to strip the team for parts at the deadline following such a miserable start.

But It's been all smiles in Nashville over the last two months, though a dose of reality is coming against a Hurricanes team that easily handled the Predators during the season. In fact, Nashville was an ugly 7-17-0 against the Central Division's three playoff teams, with two of those wins coming over the last two games of the Predators' season when Carolina had already clinched the division title.

All signs point to the Predators being mostly overmatched in this series, but it's impossible to count them out with the red-hot Juuse Saros in net. The 26-year old has been the league's undisputed best goalie since returning from an injury on March 18, ranking first in GSAA (22.9) and GSAx (14.32). If he can maintain that play in the series, the Predators will have a fighting chance.

Saros can be trusted to steal a game or two, but the Hurricanes led the league in xGF/60 (2.74) at five-on-five, and they paced the NHL in special-teams goals (49). That firepower will win out over a series, barring a Jaroslav Halak-like effort from the Nashville netminder.

With a much tougher opponent waiting, Carolina will be eager to end this series quickly.

Pick: Hurricanes -1.5 (-120)

2. Panthers (+115) vs. 3. Lightning (-145)

Overall

Panthers Stat Lightning
37-14-5 Record 36-17-3
5-2-1 H2H 3-5-0
54.89 (3rd) xGF%* 53.23 (9th)
54.32 (4th) CF%* 53.14 (7th)
53.79 (7th) HDCF%* 51.86 (12th)
7.82 (23rd) SH%* 8.34 (12th)
.926 (4th) SV%* .921 (11th)
20.5 (15th) PP% 22.4 (8th)
79.8 (17th) PK% 84.2 (4th)

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

Date Home-Away xG* CF%* HDCF* Goalies
2/11 FLA 5 - TB 2 3.38 - 1.15 57.68 - 42.32 9 - 2 Bobrovsky - Vasilevskiy
2/13 FLA 1 - TB 6 2.46 - 2.86 52.38 - 47.62 9 - 9 Bobrovsky - Vasilevskiy
2/15 TB 4 - FLA 6 2.45 - 1.99 56.74 - 43.26 10 - 6 McElhinney - Driedger
3/21 TB 5 - FLA 3 3.85 - 2.86 47.89 - 52.11 17 - 12 McElhinney - Bobrovsky
4/15 TB 3 - FLA 2 OT 1.17 - 2.79 41.35 - 58.65 4 - 13 Vasilevskiy - Driedger
4/17 TB 3 - FLA 5 1.66 - 3.26 45.42 - 54.58 9 - 7 Vasilevskiy - Bobrovsky
5/8 FLA 5 - TB 1 2.06 - 2.71 50.87 - 49.13 6 - 3 Bobrovsky - Vasilevskiy
5/10 FLA 4 - TB 0 2.98 - 2.1 58.59 - 41.41 6 - 6 Driedger - Vasilevskiy

*all strengths

Calling this in-state matchup a rivalry is a stretch, but it's been trending in that direction this season. Animosity has been building between the two Sunshine State teams that are meeting for the first time in the postseason.

This might be the toughest first-round matchup to predict, with so many variables that could drastically swing the probability.

Nikita Kucherov is slated to play for the first time this season in Game 1, but is he truly healthy? And will there be an adjustment period for him?

How healthy is Steven Stamkos? He hasn't played since April 8.

Will Victor Hedman be ready for Game 1? And will he be effective playing through an injury that's going to require offseason surgery?

And will it be Sergei Bobrovsky or Chris Driedger starting in goal for the Panthers?

That's a lot to unpack. To start, the Lightning are limping into the playoffs and looking vulnerable prior to squaring off with a Panthers team the betting market is dangerously underrating. Only five clubs face longer odds to win the Stanley Cup than Florida (17-1), despite its top-five record and equally impressive underlying metrics.

Florida more than held its own against the defending champions this season. While Kucherov returning means those meetings are less significant, the Panthers' current lineup also wasn't together for most of those clashes. Adding Sam Bennett - who has formed a nearly unstoppable line with Jonathan Huberdeau and Owen Tippett - has really solidified the Panthers' top six, making them stronger down the middle in an attempt to match Tampa's center depth. Bennett recorded four points over two games against the Lightning, with both of those contests resulting in Florida wins.

Even if we assume Tampa benefits from a fully healthy lineup, there's every reason to believe Florida can keep up. So the big question in this series centers around goaltending.

Vasilevskiy's workload was efficiently managed, and he should be fresh. But who will start opposite him? The difference between Driedger and Bobrovsky is hardly negligible.

Goalie GSAA GSAx
Driedger 12.48 (7th) 7.03 (8th)
Bobrovsky -2.65 (59th) -10.65 (79th)

Still, Joel Quenneville hasn't given the reigns to Driedger, opting to instead alternate between the two while hoping Bobrovsky can rediscover the form that earned him his hefty contract.

If Driedger gets the nod, the goaltending gap in this series shrinks significantly. Many view Vasilevskiy as the world's best goalie, and he's capable of stealing a game any night. But Driedger posted a higher GSAA/60 and five-on-five SV% (.942) this season. If it's Bobrovsky in Game 1, he'll likely be on a short leash.

Quenneville confirming Driedger as the starter before the series would create plenty of value on the Panthers with this series line. But that's unlikely, and there's plenty of injury uncertainty, so I'll be looking to get involved here on more of a game-to-game basis as opposed to betting the series price.

However, the last two Stanley Cup champions were eliminated in the first round the following season. This feels a lot like the 2019 series between the Capitals and Hurricanes, when a young, hungry Carolina team bounced the reigning champs in seven.

Lean: Panthers (+115)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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Best bets to win the Stanley Cup

The league has not yet announced an official start date for the postseason, but all signs point to the NHL playoffs commencing on Saturday, with the North Division getting underway a few days later.

NHL playoff time is one of the greatest times of the year, and with the first round just around the corner, these next few days are for watching "History Will Be Made" commercials and past playoff montages while revisiting the Stanley Cup oddsboard.

TEAM ODDS
Colorado Avalanche +350
Vegas Golden Knights +350
Tampa Bay Lightning +550
Toronto Maple Leafs +600
Carolina Hurricanes +700
Boston Bruins +1000
New York Islanders +1000
Washington Capitals +1400
Pittsburgh Penguins +1500
Florida Panthers +1700
Minnesota Wild +1700
Montreal Canadiens +1800
St. Louis Blues +2200
Winnipeg Jets +2200
Edmonton Oilers +2500
Nashville Predators +3200

Carolina Hurricanes (+700)

I've been beating this drum since before the season, and you best believe I'm not stopping now. All the Hurricanes did this year was win a gauntlet of a division, despite Teuvo Teravainen and Petr Mrazek playing for just 31 games combined. The club went 10-3-3 against the Panthers and Lightning and absolutely dominated the Predators, their first-round opponent.

It's not just that Carolina won, it's also about how the team won, finishing top five in xGF%, CF%, and HDCF%. The Hurricanes also allowed the fewest goals in the league by a wide margin (both overall and five-on-five) while ranking second on the power play and third on the penalty kill. The only reason Carolina isn't priced among the favorites is because of the reputations of the clubs above them - we're getting a squad every bit as good as Colorado and Vegas at double the price.

The Hurricanes winning the Central Division also works in their favor, presenting a much more appealing first-round date with the Predators while Florida and Tampa beat up on one another. It also ensures Carolina will have home-ice advantage through at least the first two rounds, and likely three - a massive boost for a team that went 20-3-5 at PNC Arena this season.

Boston Bruins (+1000)

The Bruins lost 8-1 to the Capitals on April 11 to drop to 21-12-6, fourth in the East Division, and just four points into a playoff spot. Boston had a goal differential of plus-five. Later that night, the franchise acquired Mike Reilly and, a little over an hour later, Taylor Hall. The Bruins have gone 11-3-1 since then with a plus-28 goal differential, and they come into the playoffs as the NHL's hottest team.

Boston leads the league over that span with an outrageous 61.71 xGF% at five-on-five, while ranking second in CF% and fourth in xGF/60. It's been an impressive turnaround for the Bruins, which were among the league's worst offensive teams through the first half of the campaign. Injuries also played a big part in Boston's earlier struggles, with the club ranking top five in man-games lost among playoff teams. The Bruins were hit especially hard on the back end and in goal, with Tuukka Rask limited to just 24 games.

Hall has since filled a massive void in the squad's top six, joining what has become a dynamic second line with David Krejci and Craig Smith behind a first line that's been among the NHL's best for the past five years. The bottom six is among the league's stronger groups, while Reilly's emergence has solidified a now healthy blue line. There are few holes in this roster as Boston gears up for yet another run at the Stanley Cup.

Edmonton Oilers (+2500)

If you're strictly looking for value, the Oilers being offered at 25-1 at theScore Bet fits the bill. You won't find better odds anywhere on Edmonton, which ranges between 16-1 and 20-1 elsewhere.

Now I'm not particularly high on the Oilers - and those reservations will keep me off them at anything 20-1 or shorter - but it's hard to look away with such a generous price here. Edmonton will only go as far as Connor McDavid takes them, but there's no one better to hitch your wagon to than the best player on the planet who's coming off one of the most dominant seasons in sports history.

The path out of the North isn't particularly daunting, and while the Oilers are a class below the Leafs, Toronto's goaltending situation is a red flag. If Mike Smith can pick up where he left off in the regular season, finishing sixth among all goalies in GSAA and seventh in GSAx, this club can be a real problem. Edmonton is not without its flaws, but the star power up front, the NHL's top-ranked power play, and a born-again Smith between the pipes are enough reasons to buy in at this price.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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NHL weekend betting preview: Backing teams in advantageous rest spots

We've been stuck in the mud since Monday's sweep, splitting the rest of the week to sit 123-113 (+7.41 units) on the season heading into the weekend.

It's time for a final push as we enter the last couple of weeks of the regular season.

Canadiens (-110) @ Flames (-110)
April 23, 9 p.m. ET

A recurring theme for these picks is rest - and fading teams in disadvantageous spots. Fading squads in difficult schedule spots has been profitable this season, and fatigue seems likely to hold added weight over these final few weeks as the grind of an incredibly compact campaign increasingly wearing on teams.

The first spot to offer value is Friday's game in Calgary, where the Flames essentially face a must-win situation against the Canadiens. The Flames have been resting at home since Monday's loss to the Senators and should be fresh for this massive game following three full days off. The Canadiens played the Oilers in Edmonton on Wednesday, and Friday's tilt will be their fifth game in eight days. Playing four games a week, Montreal hasn't had consecutive nights off since its COVID-19 postponements in March.

Much has been made of the Canadiens' inconsistencies of late, but some of those struggles can likely be attributed, at least in part, to a near-impossible schedule. That schedule makes this a good spot to fade Montreal even after a strong showing against the Oilers. It helps that the Flames have largely dominated the season series between these two teams, winning four of the last six meetings while controlling 57% of the expected goal share at five-on-five.

Pick: Flames (-110)

Coyotes (-105) @ Kings (-115)
April 24, 10 p.m.

A surprise success story earlier in the season, the Kings have seen their campaign tail off as they head into the final stretch with a playoff spot largely out of reach. They find themselves in a very difficult spot Saturday when they play their second game in as many nights, this time against a Coyotes team that will have been idle since Wednesday.

The Coyotes have had plenty of success this year against teams below them in the standings. Against the likes of the Avalanche, Golden Knights, and Wild, Arizona is 4-17-1. It's 16-5-4 against the rest of the division. With a healthy Darcy Kuemper back between the pipes and L.A. playing its second game in as many nights, the Coyotes offer good value at this price.

Pick: Coyotes (-105)

Bruins (N/A) @ Penguins (N/A)
April 25, 3 p.m.

The Penguins face the same situation as the Kings, as Sunday's game will be their second in as many nights and comes against a Bruins team that's off Saturday. Pittsburgh has played a ton of hockey recently, and this will be its sixth game in nine nights; it will be Boston's fifth in that span. That may not seem like a big deal, but the extra game is significant, especially considering the Penguins will have left the ice against the Devils less than 24 hours before this tilt.

With the games piling up, the Penguins' underlying numbers have taken a hit. They're 5-1-1 in their last seven - all games against the bottom three teams in the division - but own an expected goals for percentage of just 47.52 at five-on-five over that span. Regression looms. The Bruins, meanwhile, have hit their stride since injecting Taylor Hall and Mike Reilly into the lineup. Boston has won six in a row - three each against the Islanders and Capitals - and owns a league-best 62.89 expected goals for percentage and 58.76 Corsi For percentage over that span. First place in the East Division is now well within reach for the Bruins, who can make a real statement Sunday.

Pick: Bruins (-120 or better)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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Tuesday NHL betting preview: 2 road ‘dogs worth backing

A 2-0 sweep on Monday got the week started right for us as we move to 120-110 (+7.51 units) on the season.

Here's what's on tap for Tuesday.

Hurricanes (+105) @ Lightning (-125)

I always recommend waiting for goaltending confirmations before betting a game, and that holds especially true when a team has as big of a discrepancy between starter and backup as the Lightning do. Curtis McElhinney looks to get the start in this contest after Andrei Vasilevskiy manned the net last night in a 3-2 overtime win for Tampa. The Lightning are 15-4 in Vasilevskiy starts since the beginning of March and 1-4-1 with McElhinney in the crease.

The gulf between the two is massive, and while the Lightning may opt to go back to Vasilevskiy tonight given the magnitude of this game in the Central Division race, it's also unlikely considering how strict Tampa has been when it comes to managing his load. Vasilevskiy hasn't started more than three straight since McElhinney was on the COVID list during the first week of February. The Lightning have had five back-to-backs this season, with Vasilevskiy never starting both games.

The Hurricanes have also been the better team this season, holding an edge in just about every important underlying metric - a gap that's grown even bigger over the past few weeks. Carolina's posted a 57.87 xGF% and 57.49 FF% at five-on-five since March 30, with the Lightning sitting at marks of 51.64% and 51.46%. If McElhinney starts, the Hurricanes are a steal at plus money.

Pick: Hurricanes (+105)

Rangers (+110) @ Islanders (-130)

The Islanders find themselves in a bit of a slump as they try to push for first place in the East Division, losing three of their last five and winning just twice in regulation over their last 13 games while also managing just a 44.9 CF% over those 13 contests. The club has been especially bad over the last six games and hasn't managed a single regulation win, posting a 43.1 xGF% and a 43.73 CF% at five-on-five - both are bottom-five marks in the league (excluding the Canucks, who played just one game over that span).

The Rangers, meanwhile, continue to take care of business as they desperately chase a playoff spot that may be impossible to catch with the way the teams ahead of them keep winning. After a four-game sweep of the Devils, the Rangers have now won eight of their last 11 and have taken points from 10 of those games.

Based on how these New York rivals have been playing over the past month, the Rangers are actually deserving of being slight favorites with Igor Shesterkin in net - he's been confirmed as tonight's starter - so getting them at +110 is quite the bargain.

Pick: Rangers (+110)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Thursday NHL betting preview: Betting a pair of Central Division matchups

It may be a short season, but it feels like things are really dragging along right now as we creep toward the playoffs. Condensed schedules and the repetition of playing the same opponents have players often looking tired and disengaged, which makes betting these games even more difficult.

Still, we're managing to keep our heads above water this year with a 114-106 (+6.24 units) record heading into Thursday's slate.

Panthers (+130) @ Lightning (-150)

The Lightning would probably be running away with the Central Division if they could get any sort of quality goaltending behind Andrei Vasilevskiy. Curtis McElhinney hasn't provided anything close, as Tampa is 13-3-0 since the beginning of March in Vasilevskiy starts and 1-5-1 when anyone else is in net.

Vasilevskiy is confirmed as tonight's starter after McElhinney started the 7-2 loss Tuesday, and that makes the Lightning excellent value in a bounce-back spot on home ice. This should also be a Sergei Bobrovsky start for the Panthers - the lesser of their two goalies - as Chris Driedger hasn't started back-to-back games since February.

So we're getting a significant goaltending edge with the better roster, and while the price may seem expensive, it's still too short. The Panthers have actually come back down to earth over the last three weeks, with pedestrian marks of 49.94 xGF% and 51.57 CF% at five-on-five over that span, while the Lightning continue to tick along with a 52.35 xGF% and 54.73 CF%. Lay it with the hosts here.

Pick: Lightning (-150)

Blackhawks (-160) @ Red Wings (+140)

This bet hinges on Jonathan Bernier starting for the Red Wings. Assuming he's in net, then we're getting great value with the hosts here. Detroit has actually played some pretty good hockey over the last little bit, managing a 5-3-2 record over its previous 10 despite eight of those games coming against the top-four teams in the division (two each against the Lightning, Hurricanes, Panthers, and Predators).

And the Red Wings' underlying metrics support that record, as they're seventh in the NHL with a 52.7 xGF% at five-on-five over their last 10 games. Their 46.7 CF% over that span is below league average but still better than what the Blackhawks managed. Chicago has posted a 44.51 xGF% and 44.28 CF% over its last 10 games - both bottom-five marks in the NHL over that span.

The Blackhawks have largely been riding their luck and are due for regression, with Kevin Lankinen often bailing them out of bad performances. However, Lankinen has started seven straight games and clearly needs rest. It's possible we see Malcolm Subban start tonight for the Blackhawks, or it'll be a tired and overworked Lankinen. Either way, as long as Bernier starts, the Red Wings are worth backing in this spot.

Pick: Red Wings (+140)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Stanley Cup odds update: Teams to buy, sell following the trade deadline

Another trade deadline has come and gone, and it wasn't nearly as quiet as expected given quarantine restrictions and the flat cap.

The playoff field feels strangely set, with a couple of exceptions. With rosters essentially finalized, let's see which teams offer value in the futures market.

Team Odds (4/13) Odds (3/23)
Colorado Avalanche +350 +550
Vegas Golden Knights +400 +400
Tampa Bay Lightning +450 +450
Toronto Maple Leafs +500 +700
New York Islanders +800 +1200
Carolina Hurricanes +1000 +1000
Boston Bruins +1300 +1100
Minnesota Wild +1500 +1500
Pittsburgh Penguins +1700 +2400
Florida Panthers +1800 +1600
St. Louis Blues +1800 +1800
Washington Capitals +1800 +1800
Philadelphia Flyers +2000 +1800
Montreal Canadiens +2200 +2200
Winnipeg Jets +2200 +2200
Edmonton Oilers +2500 +2500
Dallas Stars +3200 +3200

*Only displaying teams with odds 35-1 or shorter

Buy

Tampa Bay Lightning (+450)

The Lightning announced the biggest pre-deadline acquisition a few weeks ago when they confirmed Nikita Kucherov is still on track to return for the playoffs. Little else was expected of the defending champions given their cap restraints. So, naturally, they solidified their blue line by adding a defense partner for Victor Hedman in David Savard. It's bordering on unfair at this point.

Tampa Bay has traded away three first-round picks since the beginning of last season and I don't believe the team is drafting again until 2027. But the Lightning already have one Cup to show for it and appear well on their way to another. Flags fly forever.

Boston Bruins (+1300)

We all know the Taylor Hall story so I won't beat it to death. He's sucked this year and wasn't a desired commodity as a result, but Boston feels like a perfect fit. The Bruins need scoring in a bad way, and a motivated Hall could do some serious damage on the second line.

This is something of a last chance for Hall. The impending unrestricted free agent has no excuse if he doesn't perform given he requested a trade to Boston. Additionally, this was a low-risk move by the Bruins given how little they gave up, with Hall using his no-trade clause to essentially back the Sabres into a corner. It's nice to see a team from Boston finally catch a break.

The Bruins also traded for Mike Reilly, who's enjoyed a breakout with the Senators, to play alongside Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk, and Brandon Carlo in the top four. This roster is rounding out nicely, with Tuukka Rask also due back soon.

Pittsburgh Penguins (+1700)

Few people seem to care that the Penguins acquired two-time Stanley Cup champion Jeff Carter. This was low-key one of my favorite deadline deals. Carter's arrival makes it 16 Stanley Cups won collectively by this roster. If there's one thing Pittsburgh needed, it's more playoff experience.

Carter also came at a relative bargain despite posting better numbers than Hall, Nick Foligno, and Kyle Palmieri. The 36-year-old can play up and down the lineup at center or on the wing. He's still a strong skater and the offense hasn't dried up yet. Playing to the right of Evgeni Malkin wouldn't hurt, either. Carter's a good, smart hockey player, and the fit in Pittsburgh feels perfect. The Penguins will be a nightmare to deal with once they start getting their injured forwards back.

Sell

Vegas Golden Knights (+400)

Nothing against Mattias Janmark, but the Golden Knights paid more for him than Boston and Pittsburgh did for Hall and Carter, respectively. Janmark can provide some secondary scoring, but I'm not sure how much he moves the needle. This felt like a time for Vegas - which has come so close in each of the last three seasons - to add an impact player ahead of a likely showdown with the Avalanche, a team stacked with them. To me, it looks like Vegas overpaid for a depth guy.

I also would have loved to see the Golden Knights pay up for Ryan Getzlaf. He's having a down year but he would've been a great addition for Vegas' power play and its locker room.

Minnesota Wild (+1500)

The Wild have really tailed off after being analytical darlings throughout the first half of the season. Since March 17, they rank dead last in the NHL in xGF% and CF% at five-on-five. They're also second-last in GF%. With Minnesota's road to the Cup likely going through Vegas and Colorado, that's just not going to cut it.

There aren't any glaring holes on this roster, but some depth down the middle or secondary scoring on the wing would've been nice. Don't use cap space as an excuse, either - we saw plenty of teams get creative to make the numbers work. It's been a fun season in Minnesota, but the team picked the wrong day to become boring again.

Winnipeg Jets (+2200)

The Jets cleared nearly $4.8 million in cap space by moving Nathan Beaulieu to long-term injured reserve, paving the way for Kevin Cheveldayoff to swing for the fences. The general manager is no stranger to a deadline splash, acquiring Paul Stastny in 2018 and Kevin Hayes in 2019, so it's a real head-scratcher as to why he elected to let the newfound cap space go unused.

Maybe it's just me, but if I have a top-three goalie and one of the league's elite forward groups, I'm going all-in. The Jets can score with anyone and Connor Hellebuyck is capable of stealing a game on his own on any given night. Winnipeg needs help on the blue line, but instead of acquiring a Josh Manson, Jamie Oleksiak, or Vince Dunn, Chevy settled for Jordie Benn. Yeah, that ain't it.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, strongly believes in the power of the jinx, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL futures odds: Best value bets to finish 1st in each division

With a month left in the NHL season, division races are heating up as teams look to secure top spot and home-ice advantage through to the semifinals.

Let's take a look at the division markets and see where the value is heading into the home stretch.

Central Division

TEAM ODDS PTS GR
Hurricanes +125 55 18
Lightning +125 54 17
Panthers +350 56 16

As someone who bet the Hurricanes to win the Central Division at +400 before the season, it's no secret how I want to see this play out. I'm approaching this final month with cautious optimism.

But before we get into the race between the Hurricanes and Lightning, let me tell you why the Panthers won't win the division: nine of their 16 remaining games are against Carolina, Tampa, and Dallas - a tough ask without star defenseman Aaron Ekblad. They don't play Detroit again, either, while their four remaining games against the Predators and Blackhawks are on the road. As good as Florida's been, I can't trust it to win the Central under these circumstances.

That leaves us with Carolina and Tampa jockeying for first place and the much friendlier first-round matchup that comes with it. The Hurricanes hold the edge based on current standings, and they also come out on top when you comb through the numbers: they've been better at five-on-five and are stronger on special teams. But the biggest advantage they have comes in net.

The Lightning have been really cautious not to overwork Andrei Vasilevskiy - he hasn't made more than three consecutive starts since the first week of February - and while that will help keep him fresh for playoffs, it'll hurt them in the division race. Tampa has received below replacement-level goaltending from the backup position and is just 3-5-1 without Vasilevskiy between the pipes - a problem the Hurricanes don't have given their embarrassment of riches in goal.

Carolina also has the added benefit of playing its two remaining head-to-head meetings with the Lightning on back-to-back nights, meaning it'll see Tampa's backup of choice in one of those games. It's part of a daunting stretch for the Lightning, who play the Hurricanes and Panthers four times in a six-day span. I'm fading the defending Cup champions in the Central Division race.

Best value: Hurricanes (+125)

East Division

TEAM ODDS PTS GR
Islanders +135 54 17
Capitals +220 54 17
Bruins +450 46 20
Penguins +450 50 17

Arguably the most wide-open division race, there's a legitimate case to be made for all four of these teams to finish atop the East Division. Adding Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac has vaulted the Islanders into the role of favorites, and understandably so. They boast the division's best goal differential (plus-28) and rank third in the league in expected goal share at five-on-five, while none of the Capitals, Bruins, or Penguins crack the top 14.

However, special teams have been an issue for the Islanders. They rank 22nd on the power play and 11th on the penalty kill, both areas where the Capitals and Bruins excel. The Penguins aren't particularly great at five-on-five or special teams, but their remaining schedule is really enticing - hardly the case for Barry Trotz's team.

Of the Isles' 17 remaining games, 11 are against the Capitals, Bruins, and Rangers. They play three times at TD Garden, but it's the five games against the surging Rangers that have me most concerned - they're the division's next-best five-on-five team after the Isles and are playing excellent hockey right now as they push for a playoff spot. I think the Islanders are the division's best team, but the schedule is enough to scare me off, given the short price.

It's also enough to scare me off Washington, which plays 15 of its remaining 17 games against the division's top six, including seven versus the Islanders and Bruins. The Penguins have perhaps the easiest remaining schedule, with nine of 17 coming against the Devils and Sabres. That being said, the Devils are hardly pushovers - they've taken two of three against Pittsburgh this season - and the Pens just don't boast good enough underlying numbers to truly trust them down the stretch.

That leaves us with the Bruins. Tuukka Rask, who's been out since March 7, is back skating with the team, while they've found a strong insurance policy in prospect Jeremy Swayman. Boston is also expected to make a splash at the deadline, strengthening the roster ahead of a negotiable final stretch. Five of the Bruins' seven remaining games against the Isles and Caps are on home ice, while they still play six more times against the hapless Sabres. Things are setting up nicely for the Bruins, who are certainly worth a flier in this market at their current price.

Best value: Bruins (+450)

North Division

TEAM ODDS PTS GR
Maple Leafs -550 57 16
Oilers +1000 50 16
Canadiens +1000 43 20
Jets +1000 49 17

Realistically speaking, no one is catching the Leafs in the North Division. Toronto has built a seven-point cushion at the summit and has been playing excellent hockey. I've also heard rumblings that Jack Campbell may never lose another game in his professional career, but I can neither confirm nor deny.

You're not going to lay -550 on the Leafs either, of course. It looks like free money, but there's still a little over a month of the season to play, and, as much as I hate to even say it, we've seen COVID-19 rip through a handful of teams already this season.

If you're looking for one club that can still possibly catch the Leafs, my money would be on Winnipeg. The Canadiens, despite a number of games in hand, have too much ground to make up amidst such a congested schedule, while the Oilers only have one game left against a Senators team they're 8-0-0 against this year - they're barely above .500 (16-14-2) versus the rest of the division.

The Jets, though, have a bit of a case here, assuming Blake Wheeler doesn't miss an extended period. They still play the Senators four times and Canucks twice - who knows what state they'll be in. They also somewhat control their own destiny because they have four games remaining against Toronto, with three of those coming in Winnipeg. If they can rattle off six points from those - a big if, of course - then this race would suddenly become very interesting.

Best value: Jets (+1000)

West Division

TEAM ODDS PTS GR
Avalanche -185 56 17
Golden Knights +230 52 18
Wild +650 50 18

Much like in the North, it's hard to look away from the chalk in the West. After dealing with a handful of injuries early in the year, the Avalanche are healthy and absolutely steamrolling teams right now. They rank first in the NHL in expected goal share (60.66%) and Corsi For percentage (59.32%), a full three percentage points higher than the next-best team. Scary, right? It's only the tip of the iceberg.

Over the last month - dating back to March 9 - the Avalanche have posted an outrageous 66.55 xGF%. They've outscored teams 70-38 over that span, with their actual goals percentage still lower than their expected goals percentage. To put it in simpler terms: this is an incredible hockey team.

Of Colorado's 17 games remaining, 14 are against the bottom four teams in the division, which poses an even bigger problem for Vegas and Minnesota. The Wild have the toughest remaining schedule of the three, with seven contests left against a Blues team that is too talented not to make a late-season push, leaving Vegas with the best chance to catch the Avalanche.

The Knights have four games remaining against the Avs and Wild and also play the Coyotes and Blues - two teams desperately fighting for a playoff spot - a combined six times. Even if the Avalanche lose both their remaining head-to-head meetings with Vegas, it's hard to see them dropping enough points elsewhere to be caught for the West Division crown. It's also worth noting just how important first place in the West is for Colorado, as it would mean avoiding the likes of Vegas and Minnesota in the first round.

Best value: Avalanche (-185)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Weekend betting preview: 3 sides to consider

Easter typically marks the first or second weekend of the NHL Playoffs, the start of a two-month stretch during which I spend every night watching teams leave it all on the ice in pursuit of the Stanley Cup.

I remember Tomas Hertl's second-overtime goal against the Vegas Golden Knights in 2019 on Easter Sunday and Alexander Radulov's OT marker against the New York Rangers in 2017 on Good Friday. And, if I really want to date myself, I remember watching Martin St. Louis score in the third overtime in Game 6 of the first round to knock out the Washington Capitals in 2003.

However, we're still six weeks from playoff hockey. The games might not carry the same intensity this Easter weekend, but let's be thankful we have hockey at all.

Flames (+130) at Oilers (-150)
April 2, 9 p.m. ET

This looks like it should be a prime spot for the Edmonton Oilers to bounce back at home against their struggling rivals. But it's really a tough one for the Oilers, who've been on road since March 21. They spent five days in a state of limbo with their three games against the Montreal Canadiens postponed before a tough two-game set in Toronto against the Maple Leafs. Edmonton then flew back to Montreal for the second half of a back-to-back against a rested Canadiens team.

The Oilers now play at home for the first time in 13 days, a typically tough spot for teams, and one they've struggled in. Edmonton has spent more than a week on the road twice this season, and both times it lost its first game back at home. This is especially tricky as it comes against a desperate Calgary Flames team that's been off since Monday.

Calgary is six points back of a playoff spot with four more games played than the team it's chasing. It's been tough to gauge which Flames side is going to show up on a nightly basis, but I expect a spirited effort by Calgary against its in-province rival after an extended rest. The fact that the Flames are catching the Oilers in a tough spot is an added bonus.

Pick: Flames (+130)

Blackhawks (+110) at Predators (-130)
April 3, 3 p.m.

The Chicago Blackhawks were a great story for much of the first half, but fans aren't going to like how this fairytale ends. These teams are tied for fourth in the Central ahead of Saturday's meeting but are trending in entirely opposite directions.

Chicago has lost nine of its last 13, and the underlying metrics are even uglier. Since March 5, the Blackhawks are last in the NHL with a miserable 38.9% expected goal share at five-on-five.

Meanwhile, the Nashville Predators are finally playing like the team many expected them to be this season. Winners of eight of their last 10, they're now firmly back in the playoff mix. They've posted a really strong 52.57% share of the expected goals at five-on-five since March 8, clearly turning a corner from the club that looked set to be stripped for parts in late February.

The gulf was very apparent when these teams met last weekend for a two-game set in Chicago, with the banged-up Predators winning both. Nashville owned a 58.7 xGF%, 57.97% CF%, and 63.41 HDCF% in those games, and there's no reason to expect any different as they get set to meet again.

Pick: Predators (-130)

Blue Jackets at Panthers (N/A)
April 4, 5 p.m.

These Central Division rivals meet twice this weekend, so take note that this is for Sunday's game. Projecting NHL starting goalies is often a fool's errand, but it feels relatively safe to assume Sergei Bobrovsky will get the call in the first game of this back-to-back, with Chris Driedger going on Sunday after starting Thursday's win against the Detroit Red Wings. That's the hope, as I feel much better backing the Florida Panthers these days with Driedger in goal.

Both Aleksander Barkov and Patric Hornqvist are also expected back at some point this weekend, with Sunday a much safer bet that both will be in the lineup. The Panthers' five-on-five numbers have dipped without the pair, but this is a dominant team with those two, and it appears we can get it at a reasonable price in this game.

The lookahead line is a bit short, and that's largely down to recency bias. The Columbus Blue Jackets were quite competitive in their two games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but it's important not to have short-term memory in this business. This is the same team that looked lifeless in losing a pair to the Red Wings last weekend and has posted a 42.3 xGF% at five-on-five since March 7, the third-worst mark in the league.

Pick: Panthers (-150 or better)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, despises how the NHL handles starting goalie announcements, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.