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Nothing says outdoor hockey quite like Dallas, am I right? And when you think of Cotton Bowl Stadium, your mind obviously goes straight to the National Hockey League, not the Red River Rivalry.
On New Year's Day 2020, the Dallas Stars and Nashville Predators will meet in the NHL's annual outdoor special. Here's everything you need to know about the game from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The Stars opened as slight favorites at -120, with the Predators sitting at -105. Nashville is 6-2 straight up (SU) as underdogs this season, while Dallas is 2-5 SU as favorites between -110 and -125. A total of 5.5 is expected.
Betting breakdown
First and foremost, this will be the southernmost outdoor game in North American hockey history. Of the over 100 outdoor contests previously held in North America, only five have taken place south of the 39th degree of latitude - yes, we're getting technical.
DATE
LOCATION
LEAGUE
RESULT
January 2017
Bakersfield (Calif.)
AHL
Condors 3-2 Reign
January 2017
St. Louis
NHL
Blues 4-1 Blackhawks
December 2015
Sacramento
AHL
Heat 3-2 Condors
February 2015
Santa Clara (Calif.)
NHL
Sharks 1-2 Kings
January 2014
Los Angeles
NHL
Kings 0-3 Ducks
Dallas has an average daily high temperature of 55 degrees Fahrenheit in January, similar to that of Bakersfield, Sacramento, and Santa Clara. Warmer climates result in softer ice surfaces, which drastically impact game totals. All five matchups listed above finished under 5.5 goals.
Those conditions happen to be right in line with the type of hockey the Stars prefer to play. Dallas is 25-12-2 (67.6%) to the under this season, the highest percentage of any NHL team. The Stars are also the most profitable club to the under on home ice, posting a 16-5 record.
However, the Predators are the most profitable team to the over on the road, with a 13-4 mark in that regard, and the last six regular-season meetings between these clubs in Dallas have gone over the total. It'll be a true clash of styles when these two meet at Cotton Bowl Stadium.
Nashville has won three of its last four regular-season games in Dallas, though the Predators lost two of their three trips to Texas in the playoffs last season.
X-factor
Ice quality will be a significant determining factor in how this game plays out. The warmer the weather, the softer the ice will be, leading to slower play and less offense. That plays right into the Stars' strengths.
Pick
Under 5.5 goals
It's hard to imagine the conditions in Dallas being conducive to a fast-paced hockey game. The soft ice will mitigate the high tempo the Predators typically like to employ and result in a low-scoring affair. Roll with the under, and parlay it with a Dallas win, if you're looking to start 2020 out with a bang.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section
Although it started as bad as it could on Monday and the early part of Tuesday, we rebounded in a big way to close out the midweek slate on a 4-1 run, including three lucrative plus-money winners.
Let's carry that momentum into the break as we dive into a busy four days that features 34 games.
Four days without NHL hockey may sound depressing, but don't sleep on the world juniors - there's always money to be made.
Game betting
Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers (Friday)
Looking to head into the Christmas break strong, the Leafs travel to New York on Friday for the first game of a back-to-back. Toronto has been playing better of late, but the Rangers have been a profitable team in this spot. They're on a 6-1 run as underdogs of +130 or greater, and 9-5 on the season. They also won both games in November on at least three days' rest against the Predators and Capitals. Back the Rangers as a home 'dog on Friday.
Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild (Saturday)
The Jets last won on the road on Nov. 29 and have been playing .500 hockey for the past month. Winnipeg has lost three consecutive and five of its last six in Minnesota. The Wild have really turned a corner, forcing their way up the standings, and have posted an impressive 11-5 record as favorites this season. Early lines suggest they will hover around -125 on Saturday and are a worthy bet as a result of the short price.
Montreal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers (Saturday)
The Canadiens and Oilers are able to play a number of different styles. Both lean on a tight defensive game, relying on forward speed to hit back at teams, which is what we should expect on Saturday as goals should be limited. Take the under here at anything six or higher, or make it a half-play if it's at 5.5.
Nashville Predators at Boston Bruins (Saturday), Washington Capitals at Bruins (Monday)
Losers of seven of their last eight, the Bruins are in the midst of a December free fall and will be desperate to get into the break for a reset. Limping into the break is a genuine possibility as they host a pair of hot teams that have flourished in this spot.
The Predators are 5-1 as a 'dog this season and the Capitals are 7-1. No team has been better in this spot than these two. Nashville is starting to find its scoring touch, while the Capitals own the league's best road record at 15-3-1. Back them both to leave Boston with two points.
Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators (Monday)
Since the start of November, the Sabres are 2-12 playing outside of Buffalo (including a pair of games in Sweden). The status of top scorer Jack Eichel is up in the air, but regardless of whether he plays or not, I like the Senators in this spot. DJ Smith is doing an excellent job with this team and they're in pretty much every game they play. Ottawa is on an 8-1 run on home ice and are 3-0 this season as favorites. The Sens should be small favorites here, but either way they warrant a play.
Colorado Avalanche at Vegas Golden Knights (Monday)
With the amount of firepower these teams have you can never be fully comfortable backing an under, but the way the Avalanche and Golden Knights have been playing of late is telling. Despite the offensive prowess, they're each relying on defense-first hockey. Colorado is on a 6-2 run to the under on the road, while Vegas is on an 8-1 run at home. It'd be rude not to play the under here.
Game props
Florida Panthers at Carolina Hurricanes (Saturday)
In their last 10 trips to Carolina, just once have the Panthers managed more than two goals. Take their team total under 3.5 against the Hurricanes, or under 2.5 if you'd prefer not to lay the juice.
New Jersey Devils at Columbus Blue Jackets (Saturday)
The Blue Jackets are one of the most profitable under teams in hockey on home ice, with 13 of 19 games in Columbus staying under the total this season. The Devils have been held to just one goal in each of their last three trips there and will be playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, with travel. Their team total under 2.5 feels like a strong bet here.
Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars (Sunday)
In their last six trips to Dallas, the Flames have a grand total of 10 goals. The Stars have held teams to two goals or fewer (excluding the shootout) in 13 of 19 home games this season, and three goals or less in 18. Only the Capitals have gone into Dallas this year and scored four. It's another team total under, which we've been hitting at a high clip this season, this time with the Flames under 2.5, and 1.5 if you're up for the thrill.
Columbus Blue Jackets at New York Islanders (Monday)
Goals have typically been scarce in the opening frame when these two teams meet in New York, with the first-period under hitting in four straight and six of the last seven. The Islanders have hit it in four straight at home and we should expect that trend to continue here.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Santa Claus is coming to town. He's making a list and checking it twice, and going to find out who's naughty or nice.
A simple glance at the standings doesn't always tell the whole story of which NHL teams have been kind to bettors this season, and which clubs have been naughty.
A few teams can expect to be spoiled on Christmas morning, while Santa will forgo visiting others altogether.
Nice list
New York Islanders
Barry Trotz is the closest thing to Santa Claus in the NHL. He's followed up an incredibly successful first season as head coach of the Islanders with an even more impressive one, starting the year 22-8-2. New York has been the most profitable team to bet on this season, returning $1,117 to the $100 bettor. There's no situation in which the Isles haven't been profitable: They've posted a 15-5 record as favorites and won seven of 10 as 'dogs.
In addition to turning a healthy profit on a night-to-night basis, the Islanders are rewarding bettors who backed them before the start of the season. They're set to comfortably surpass their 91.5 point total and should be a virtual lock for the playoffs after being even money to clinch.
Forward Brock Nelson gets an extra-special present this Christmas, too, after scoring three overtime goals.
Colorado Avalanche
A hair behind the Islanders, the Avalanche have been the league's second-most profitable team.
The darlings of the Western Conference have been a consistently safe bet. With an average line this season of -109, oddsmakers aren't overvaluing Colorado either. The Avs are 10-4 as favorites (+$425) and 11-8 as 'dogs (+$571). The fact they've been underdogs more than favorites shows there's been value in backing them through the first three months of the season.
After closing at 7-2 to win the Central Division on Oct. 1, the Avalanche are now 3-2 to claim top spot ahead of the Blues. They currently trail St. Louis by three points (albeit with two fewer games played).
Washington Capitals
Your Christmas would be paid for if you'd picked the right spots to bet the Capitals. They've been a cash cow as underdogs, posting a 7-1 record for a profit of $683. To a lesser extent, the Caps have also returned a profit as favorites, and there's another gift that keeps on giving: Overs are 12-4 in games played in Washington this year.
The Caps are also rewarding futures-market bettors. They could play below .500 hockey the rest of the way and still clear their point total, and they're 2-5 to win the Metro Division after closing at 7-2 on October 1.
Naughty list
Tampa Bay Lightning
Has there been a more frustrating team to back this season than the Lightning? I've lost count of how many times someone's told me, "They're too talented not to turn it around."
The average Tampa Bay line so far this season has been minus-172. That's the highest line average in the NHL, a full five points ahead of the Bruins and 19 over the third-worst Golden Knights. This is an overvalued team that was barely above .500 a week ago. Obviously, people are betting the Lightning enough that their record and performance don't matter for books, and that's a scary thought.
The Bolts have been 'dogs just twice all season, beating the Leafs at +100 and losing to the Capitals at +109. They've been favorites of -200 or more a staggering 10 times and are just 5-5 in those games, sinking your bankroll if you mindlessly indulged.
The Lightning would have to post a 36-14 record the rest of the way in order to go over their preseason point total. To cash tickets for anyone who backed them at -1100 to make the playoffs before the season started, Tampa will seriously need to turn things around.
New Jersey Devils
If you tend to be sucked in by preseason hype, then it's fair to assume you've been burned by the Devils this year in more ways than one.
Though they were dubbed winners of the offseason, that's about the only win they've managed. They've been the least profitable team to be on all year - if you bet a cool hundy on every New Jersey game this season, you'd have lost $1,194 already.
The Devils are 3-9 as favorites and 7-13 as 'dogs. They were 6-1 to win the division at the start of the season (shorter odds than the Islanders) and -110 to make the playoffs. In order to go over their projected point total, they need to finish the year 33-17 - no easy feat given that they just traded their best player.
Nashville Predators
If betting favorites is your thing, the Predators are not your favorites. Among Western Conference teams, only the Golden Knights have been favored more often than Nashville, which is 11-14 when laying juice. Betting $100 on every one of those games would have drained $1,254 from your bankroll already. That's the worst return on investment of any NHL team as favorites this season.
The Predators have somewhat made up for it by going 5-1 as 'dogs, which is why they're lower on the naughty list, but bear these numbers in mind. Oddsmakers can't figure out this Nashville team, so keep taking advantage until they do.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
There's something inherently special about the World Junior Championship.
The once overlooked yearly showcase of the best young players in the country has blossomed into a tradition unlike any other. For two weeks, the world stops to watch the stars of tomorrow in junior hockey's most prestigious international tournament.
The 2020 edition begins in the Czech Republic on Boxing Day, the first time in three years the tourney is being held outside of North America.
Country
Odds
Canada
5-2
USA
7-2
Russia
4-1
Sweden
9-2
Finland
11-2
Czech Republic
14-1
Switzerland
50-1
Slovakia
66-1
Germany
100-1
Kazakhstan
150-1
The favorites
Canada is priced as the betting favorite to claim gold but the gap between it, the United States, and Russia, is marginal at best.
Of the three favorites, Canada was the only country not to medal at the 2019 edition of the tournament, losing to eventual champions Finland in the quarterfinals. It was the first time ever that the Great White North failed to medal on home soil.
Out for revenge in 2020, Canada enters the tournament with a ridiculously talented group of forwards that includes seven first-round picks and the likely top two picks in the 2020 NHL Draft, Alexis Lafreniere and Quinton Byfield. From top to bottom, there isn't a forward group in the tournament that can match what Canada will bring to Ostrava.
Russia is armed with a deep forward pool with 2019 world juniors scoring leader Grigori Denisenko and Vancouver Canucks prospect Vasili Podkolzin leading the charge offensively. However, it lacks the same depth of star power that Canada possesses. USA will rely heavily on Wisconsin teammates Alex Turcotte and Cole Caufield, but with the Americans returning just one forward from 2019, they're a significant step behind Canada and Russia on offense in terms of experience.
What the Americans lack up front, they make up for on the blue line. Returning defensemen K'Andre Miller and Mattias Samuelsson will lead an impressive, albeit undersized, group on the back end, with a wealth of skating and offensive ability. The unit should provide an important helping hand to a forward group that's about to be thrown into the fire.
Russia will rely on Montreal Canadiens prospect Alexander Romanov, who was named the best defenseman at the 2019 tournament, to carry its blue line. Romanov, who is capable of taking over a game, might be one of the most important players at the tournament. He'll be asked to log a ton of minutes and play in just about every situation for a Russian team that lacks depth on the back end. Daniil Zhuravlyov is a power-play specialist, but otherwise, Russia's options are a bit underwhelming.
The Canadians, on the other hand, will have one of the most experienced defensive units in the Czech Republic. Goaltending is the only thing that can hold Canada back. Olivier Rodrigue is having a terrific season with the QMJHL's Moncton Wildcats, but there's no clear-cut starter in goal for the Canadians. As such, the most important position on the ice is Canada's biggest question mark.
That's where the USA and Russia hold a significant edge over the Canucks. Spencer Knight, the 13th pick in the 2019 draft, is having another stellar campaign and should provide the Americans with the excellent netminding they've become accustomed to.
Russia will likely turn to Yaroslav Askarov, a consensus top-10 pick in 2020. The Omsk native is looking to become the first 17-year-old to start for the Russians at the tournament since Andrei Vasilevskiy in 2012. Askarov led his country to first place at the 2019 Hlinka Gretzky Cup and is set to become the first goalie selected inside the top 10 of the NHL draft since Carey Price in 2005. He's performed admirably at every level for both club and country and should have no problem claiming the starting job despite his age.
Pricing Canada as favorites is justifiable, though the Canadians have been derailed by bad goaltending in the past at the world juniors. If Rodrigue carries his excellent junior campaign into this tournament, there might be no stopping Canada. The USA is a much scarier side to back given its lack of experience, though Knight could mask a lot of its issues. Russia possesses high-end talent and offers terrific value at 4-1 as it aims to end a lengthy drought at this tournament, having not won gold since 2011.
The rest
Always the bridesmaid, Sweden has finished as runners-up 11 times, and have won gold just twice in the history of the tournament. The Swedes have a ton of talent up front, including a pair of highly touted 2020 prospects in Alexander Holtz and Lucas Raymond. Their defensive corps is loaded with skill, highlighted by Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Rasmus Sandin, but the unit was dealt a blow with the news that Adam Boqvist won't be released by the Chicago Blackhawks to join the Swedes in the Czech Republic.
The gap between Sweden's high-end talent and its depth players is fairly large, and that's a big part of the reason why the club generally seems to falter in the latter stages of the tournament. There are also question marks in goal, but you could do worse at 9-2.
It almost feels wrong to include the defending champions among "the rest," as Finland looks to become the first nation to win back-to-back gold medals since Canada's run of five straight golds between 2005 and 2009.
Finland brings back an exceptional roster loaded with NHL draft picks and 2020 eligible prospects. There's no question this team can compete with anyone, but the question is whether Colorado Avalanche prospect Justus Annunen - who's piecing together a terrific first half of the season with Karpat - can replicate the success Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had in goal for the Fins last year. If Annunen can fill the void, then 11-2 odds are criminal and need to be scooped up.
Being placed in Group A also works in Finland's favor, as the club avoids Canada, Russia, and the USA until the quarterfinals at the earliest. If the Fins top their group, they likely won't see any of those three teams until the semifinal.
As the host nation, the Czech Republic can't be disregarded, but the fact that it's playing the tournament on home ice was certainly baked into the odds. The Czechs haven't medaled at the world juniors since 2005 and their roster pales in comparison to the nations above them when it comes to elite talent, depth, and experience.
Switzerland offers the best value on the board at 50-1. The Swiss were a goal away from beating Canada last year and stunned Sweden 2-0 in the quarterfinals, en route to a fourth-place finish. They're expected to return as many as ten players from their 2019 team, providing them with a dangerous blend of talent and experience.
Beyond the Swiss, there are no real candidates to shock the world and claim gold. Slovakia's had a pair of third-place finishes at the tournament, while neither Germany or Kazakhstan have ever managed a podium finish.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
The Boston Bruins forward sits comfortably atop the NHL's goal leaderboard with 25 through just 31 games, putting him on pace for 66 this season. The last player to reach that mark was Mario Lemieux in 1995-96.
If Pastrnak can continue scoring at this rate, he'll unquestionably win the Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy in a landslide after opening the season at 25-1 odds. However, the jury is out on whether he's capable of continuing his historic output, and the underlying numbers suggest he isn't.
Pastrnak's 12 power-play goals are a huge reason he's No. 1 in the league, and perhaps the greatest contributor to his success is the fact that he's converting on 34.2% of his shots on the man advantage, which is nearly double his 18% average from the last three seasons. It's hard to imagine that number doesn't come down significantly during the remainder of the season.
At five-on-five, his shooting percentage is a more sustainable 16.7%, though that's still a significant improvement from the past three years - 10.4%, 12.6%, and 13.6%. There's room for regression across the board.
That's reflected in his expected goals count (ixG), which sits at 11.7 - eighth in the NHL below the likes of Alex Ovechkin (15.8), Leon Draisaitl (12.8), and Connor McDavid (11.8). His ixG at five-on-five is just 5.86, which ranks 26th in the NHL.
Pastrnak is a remarkable player and has fully established himself as one of the league's premier talents, but it's too much to expect him to continue this rate of production. The "Rocket" Richard race isn't settled in December, so don't start cashing those tickets just yet.
Player
Odds
Goals
David Pastrnak
5-2
25
Connor McDavid
7-2
19
Alex Ovechkin
7-2
21
Leon Draisaitl
4-1
19
Auston Matthews
7-1
18
Brad Marchand
8-1
18
Nathan MacKinnon
12-1
19
Jack Eichel
50-1
18
Patrick Kane
50-1
14
Jake Guentzel
100-1
16
Connor McDavid (7-2)
McDavid is on pace for a career-best 49 goals thanks, in large part, to a significant uptick in power-play production. His eight markers with the man advantage through 32 games is one shy of his career best of nine, which he potted in 78 games last season.
The Edmonton Oilers superstar has done so with a 27.6% shooting percentage, which is well above his career average. However, unlike Pastrnak, McDavid is shooting more than he has in the past.
He has 29 power-play shots in 32 games after averaging 45 during the last three seasons. It'll be tough for him to sustain his shooting percentage, but even keeping it above 20% puts him on pace for another nine goals on the man advantage.
His five-on-five shooting percentage is right in line with his career average and he's firing pucks on net at the same rate as he has in the past, so there shouldn't be much of a downtick in production there.
McDavid is on pace to add another 18 tallies at even strength, which would put him at 46 for the season when combined with his power-play projections. It might be tough for him to reach 50 unless he can maintain that 27.6% power-play shooting percentage - which isn't out of the question for the best player in the world - and muster some goals at four-on-four or when shorthanded.
Alex Ovechkin (7-2)
It wouldn't be a proper "Rocket" Richard race without Ovechkin in the thick of it. The Washington Capitals sniper has won the award in six of the past seven seasons and remains Pastrnak's closest competitor with 21 goals through 32 games.
It's been a fairly standard season thus far from Ovechkin, whose power-play numbers are right in line with his career averages. His five-on-five shooting percentage is a tad low, sitting at 10% - he's been above 12.8 in each of the last two seasons - but otherwise, he's again meeting expectations.
Ovechkin's on pace for 54 goals right now and it's entirely realistic to expect him to reach that number. If so, it would be his best mark since amassing 56 tallies in 2008-09. Whether or not that's enough to best Pastrnak depends entirely on how much the Bruins forward regresses.
Auston Matthews (7-1)
Matthews endured a slow November following a scorching-hot October, leaving him seven goals back of Pastrnak for the scoring lead.
Like Ovechkin, Matthews' numbers are generally in line with his career averages. However, he is getting significantly more power-play shots this season, averaging just over one per game - a significant increase from the 0.63 he managed through his first three campaigns. The Maple Leafs want him shooting more, which suggests this jump is intentional.
The one area that's slightly down for Matthews is his power-play shooting percentage, which sits at 15.6% on the season, nearly 3% below his career average of 18.4. If Matthews can reverse that trend, he could be in for a monster second half of the campaign. Working in his favor is the Leafs' power play under head coach Sheldon Keefe. The team has converted 41.7% of its opportunities with the man advantage under Keefe, compared to just 17.6% of its power-play chances under Mike Babcock. Now it's just a question of whether or not Matthews has dug himself too big of a hole to climb out of.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section
It was another profitable slate over the weekend as our preview returned a 4-2 record in game bets, though we had to settle for a 1-1 split with our props.
Let's keep our nose to the grindstone and continue to build that bankroll ahead of the holidays.
Game betting
Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers (Tuesday)
This will the Lightning's second game of a back-to-back, and their third in four nights. That means Curtis McElhinney will likely get the start against the high-scoring Panthers. Tampa is perfectly equipped to enter into a shootout, and all signs point to that being the case here. Its last five trips to take on the Panthers have produced 45 goals (and five overs), and the Bolts typically trend to the over when closing out a back-to-back.
Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins (Tuesday)
The Canadiens seem to be turning a corner over their last four games, allowing just nine goals since being berated by coach Claude Julien following a string of embarrassing defensive efforts. Meanwhile, the Penguins have kept a shutout in each of their last two at home as they shift their focus to playing good defensive hockey in light of injuries up front. The under is a strong play here at anything six or higher.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks (Tuesday)
There will be nights when the Leafs put it together, their big guns show up, and they roll over a team like the Blues. But the consistency isn't there, nor is the depth to put in those performances on a regular basis. Still, the talent on their roster means their price is constantly inflated, which offers plenty of value in backing their opponents. The Canucks remain a tough team to beat on home ice, and we can back them at a very short price here. Take them at anything -130 or lower.
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals (Wednesday)
Losers of two in a row, the Bruins open the week in Ottawa on Monday night before visiting D.C. and Tampa. They beat the Capitals 1-0 in Washington in February last season, ending a seven-game skid at Capital One Arena. Boston's scoring has dried up a bit of late, but the team is surviving on strong defensive play. Washington is also allowing very few goals (seven over its last four). The under looks good here despite all the firepower that these clubs possess.
Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning (Thursday)
This is a statement game for the Lightning, hosing a Bruins team on the second leg of a back-to-back. Tampa needs to build back its fractured reputation and a good way to do that is by beating a conference powerhouse. The Bolts are catching Boston at a good time, with less than a 24-hour turnaround from the Bruins' contest in Washington the night before. Back the Lightning to win a fifth straight home game over the Bruins as short favorites. Don't lay anything over -140.
Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues (Thursday)
The Golden Knights have been one of the NHL's unluckiest teams this season, while the defending champion Blues continue to march on despite a litany of injuries. Eventually, the bounces will start going Vegas' way - the underlying numbers are too good for them not to - and this is a good spot to back the Knights as 'dogs, as well as consider a bet on the contest to go to overtime at +300 or higher. Each of Vegas' last two games as 'dogs have required more than 60 minutes.
Game props
Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights (Tuesday)
There's usually no shortage of fireworks when these two teams face off. In eight all-time meetings, the first-period over has hit seven times, including in all four of the Blackhawks' trips to Vegas. Bank on it happening again Tuesday.
Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens (Wednesday)
Despite dominating for close to 60 minutes, the Canadiens fell 2-1 in overtime to the Senators in their most recent meeting Nov. 20. Still, the most important streak for our sake stayed alive as Ottawa has now scored two or fewer goals in seven straight visits to Montreal and nine of its last 10. Go with the under 2.5 on the Sens' team total here, regardless of whether it's Carey Price or Cayden Primeau starting for the Habs.
Player props
Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks (Tuesday)
Tyson Barrie, who hails from Victoria, British Columbia, should have no shortage of family and friends in attendance when the Leafs visit Rogers Arena. He's notched five points in eight contests since Sheldon Keefe became head coach. He should be buzzing for a trip back to his hometown Tuesday night and is a sneaky play to get a goal in this game, which should be offered between +2000 to +2500.
Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens (Wednesday)
This might seem somewhat contradictory given our under play for this game, but take it in stride. Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a Canadiens killer. He's managed nine goals in his career against Montreal, three more than his next biggest victim. He scored at the Bell Centre already this season and is worth backing to do so again.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section
Let's keep the momentum going into the weekend after a week when we went 6-0 with in-game bets, 2-0 on in-game props, and 0-1 in player props - though if you backed Patrik Laine to score Tuesday against the Dallas Stars in Winnipeg instead of Thursday in Dallas, it was a clean sweep.
Christmas is right around the corner, so let's turn money into more money.
Game betting
Montreal Canadiens at New York Rangers (Friday)
Don't look now, but the Rangers are really starting to find their groove. This is the second leg of back-to-back games for both teams, and the Canadiens haven't excelled in that situation lately, losing eight of their last nine.
The scenario here is different though. Carey Price was spared last night, with head coach Claude Julien opting to save him for this conference game. The Rangers, meanwhile, will be rolling with Henrik Lundqvist. They're 3-6 in Hank's last nine starts, compared to 6-2 in Alexandar Georgiev's last eight. That will be the difference on Friday, with the Habs winning as short road favorites.
Toronto Maple Leafs at St. Louis Blues (Saturday)
In one of the least shocking developments of the week, it seems firing Mike Babcock didn't magically solve all the Leafs' problems. There are systematic issues in Toronto's own end, and the Blues are exactly the sort of well-coached team that will take advantage. Back them to extend Toronto's skid on Saturday.
Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins (Saturday)
This could be a Stanley Cup Final preview at the Garden. The Avalanche head into Boston on a five-game winning streak, while the Bruins' eight-game winning streak was just snapped on Thursday.
Neither of these teams lack star power up front, but stout defensive play has been at the forefront of recent victories. Anticipate a tight game between a pair of disciplined clubs, and back the under in this spot at anything six or higher.
San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning (Saturday)
After closing out November on an 11-2 run, the Sharks have begun this month with successive defeats.
The Lightning, meanwhile, desperately need a winning run right now to pull back into the thick of the playoff race. It feels like success will come eventually, but Tampa still hasn't shown enough to make us believe that's imminent. Yet the Lightning continue to be priced closer to the Stanley Cup favorites everyone thought they were than the playoff bubble team they've been thus far.
We'll likely get the Sharks at a very lucrative price here that you shouldn't pass up.
New York Islanders at Dallas Stars (Saturday)
Both of these teams have lofty ambitions this season and are certainly playing up to those standards. This matchup isn't quite Avalanche-Bruins, so let's call it Avs-Bruins lite.
The Stars have won 10 of their last 12 at home, while the Islanders are beginning to sputter on the road, losing four of their last five away from home following six consecutive victories. Home ice should be the difference here, so back the Stars in this game between a pair of heavyweights that still might not be getting the respect they deserve.
San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers (Sunday)
Logic states there should be plenty of goals scored when these teams meet on Sunday night in Sunrise, but a closer look suggests that might not be the case.
The Sharks have allowed only 12 goals in their last six road games, while the Panthers' offense has been drying up a bit. Both backup goalies should start with these teams on the second half of back-to-back games too, which could also contribute to the under. Netminders Aaron Dell and Chris Driedger have been more effective than Martin Jones and Sergei Bobrovsky.
Florida is 2-0 to the under with Driedger in net, while three of the Sharks' last four games with Dell in goal have gone under. The under is the play here.
Game props
Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers (Friday)
The last seven meetings between the Kings and Oilers have gone over 1.5 goals in the first period, and that's the play again here. You can also play the over 2.5 goals at +240, which has hit in each of the last five clashes between these teams.
Seriously, there have been 21 first-period goals in the last five Kings-Oilers games. Keep riding this train until it hits the station.
San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning (Saturday)
Let's stick with the first-period over here, too.
These teams possess plenty of firepower and should be able to put on quite the show Saturday night. The Sharks are 9-5 to the first-period over on the road this season and tend to hit it against the league's higher-scoring teams. Meanwhile, the opening-frame over has cashed in seven of the Lightning's last eight at home.
Player props
Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames (Saturday)
The latest installment of the Drew Doughty vs. Matthew Tkachuk rivalry graces the Saddledome on Saturday.
Tkachuk is a fiery enough player that he doesn't need added motivation, but he'll get it in spades here. He scored twice in the first contest between these two clubs in Calgary earlier this season, so let's back him to do that again in this spot for the Flames.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Last week, we dove into advanced stats to find value in the current Stanley Cup market, identifying four buy-low teams that have had bad puck luck and are due for positive regression. I sincerely hope you locked in your Vegas Golden Knights tickets, because they're about to go on a run.
This week, we shift gears and examine three teams being offered well below what their market values should be. These teams sport better records than their underlying numbers indicate or have seen any value in their Stanley Cup odds sapped by public perception. Such clubs need to be avoided in the futures market, at least until their odds lengthen appropriately.
St. Louis Blues (10-1)
Let's start by making one thing clear: The Blues are a very good hockey team and are capable of repeating as Stanley Cup champions. To suggest otherwise would be foolish. There's your disclaimer. Now let's pick apart the defending champs.
The Blues really haven't missed a beat since winning the Cup in June. They continue to rack up signature wins, beating Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and Dallas within the last week despite injuries to a number of top players; it seems they're again the cream of the crop in the west. Remind me why I'm advising against backing them, again? Oh right, the underlying numbers.
Teams are scoring on just 11.62% of their high-danger scoring chances against the Blues this season, the lowest mark in the league. St. Louis has posted the league's second-highest SCSV% (percentage of scoring-chance shots against that weren't goals) and second-lowest HDCF% (rate of high-danger scoring chances for versus against). They're bottom 10 in xGF (expected goals for) and among the 10 worst in xGA (expected goals against), yet just five teams have allowed fewer five-on-five goals.
St. Louis is certainly due for regression, but it's hard to doubt this team. If anything, the Blues are a prime example of advanced stats telling only part of the story. They have a deep roster, a great goalie, and perhaps an even better coach. Still, it would be naive to throw these stats out the window. This isn't to say bettors should back off the Blues entirely, but they should exercise caution, especially at such a short price.
Toronto Maple Leafs (12-1)
As was expected, Mike Babcock's departure - and Sheldon Keefe's subsequent arrival - galvanized the Maple Leafs, who won their first three games under Keefe and outscored opponents 14-4 over that stretch. But the honeymoon has ended, and for all of Babcock's shortcomings as a person, fans will soon realize this team's issues didn't simply start and end with its former coach.
The roster has some obvious weaknesses that general manager Kyle Dubas continues to neglect. Until he does, it doesn't matter who's behind the bench. The Maple Leafs lack physicality, energy, and depth - not a recipe for playoff success. Even more concerning is their inability to play in their own end. No team has allowed more high-danger goals at five-on-five this season.
Toronto has allowed the sixth-most high-danger chances (HDCA) and the fifth-most goals at five-on-five. Those figures are right in line with the team's xGA, so they can't be chalked up to bad luck. It's simply bad hockey. It doesn't matter how talented the Maple Leafs' top two forward lines are - though they're still middle of the pack in xGF - if they can't keep the puck out of their own net.
Defensive breakdowns and mental lapses have become far too commonplace to even consider backing Toronto at a very unfavorable 12-1. The Maple Leafs currently sit outside of a playoff spot and have shown nothing to warrant a price in the same region as the Blues, Washington Capitals, or Colorado Avalanche.
Winnipeg Jets (20-1)
If you haven't jumped ship on the Jets yet, you'll probably live to regret it. Nothing about their underlying numbers flatters them. Winnipeg ranks 12th in the league in five-on-five goals and has allowed the ninth-fewest against. Those are respectable marks, but both are due for considerable regression: The Jets are fourth-last in xGF and own the highest xGA mark in the NHL. And that's only scraping the surface.
Winnipeg ranks sixth in SCSV%, fourth in HDCA, and fifth in both HDSH% (high-danger chances that resulted in goals for) and HDSV% (high-danger chances against that did not result in goals). They also have the worst HDCF% in the league. Even with the help of these unsustainable rates, the Jets currently hold just a four-point cushion for a playoff spot. That has to concern even the most optimistic of fans.
You could do a lot better than Winnipeg at 20-1; the Jets have no business being priced alongside the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, or Philadelphia Flyers.
*all stats above courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and only include 5v5
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section
The first two months of the NHL season have absolutely flown by and December is upon us. That means it's time to ditch those pumpkin-spice lattes for candy-cane hot chocolates, stay inside unless it's absolutely necessary to leave the house, watch a ton of hockey, and hopefully win enough money to cover our holiday expenses.
There's no time like the present to start, so here's your guide to betting the week ahead in the NHL.
Game betting
New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens (Tuesday)
Mired in an eight-game losing streak, the Canadiens put in one of their best defensive efforts over the last two weeks in a losing effort against Boston on Sunday. They're low on confidence, but there was a lot to build on as they get set to host an Islanders team that has really cooled off over the last 10 days. It's also the second leg of a back-to-back for the Isles, who play Monday. Look at the under here, as well as the Habs snapping their skid.
Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks (Tuesday)
The Capitals have been playing great hockey since the start of the season and the Sharks have excelledover the last month. San Jose's on an 11-2 run and playing with urgency, so it seems like the side to back here, but the total appears to be a more appealing play. Both these teams can score in bunches and this could turn into a blow-for-blow affair. The over looks like a strong bet.
Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs (Wednesday)
This is something of a revenge spot for the Avalanche after the Maple Leafs came to Colorado and won just under two weeks ago. The Avs are getting healthy - they welcomed Mikko Rantanen back Saturday - and are hoping to make up for lost time. Meanwhile, the Leafs' issues weren't all magically solved by firing Mike Babcock. Defensively, they can still be picked on, and this game happens to be the second leg of a back-to-back with travel for Toronto. Take Colorado at plus-money.
St. Louis Blues at Pittsburgh Penguins (Wednesday)
The Blues really make this whole hockey thing look easy, don't they? The Penguins have one of the best home records in the NHL, so a trip to Pittsburgh poses a real test.The Blues on the road against strong competition has typically been a good spotto back the under. After these teams combined for seven goals in St. Louis on Saturday, expect a much tighter contest. I'd play the under as low as 5.5, though hopefully, we get it at six.
Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders (Thursday)
While the Islanders' point streak ended last week, they've won 10 of their last 11 home games, picking up at least a point in each of them. A visit from the Golden Knights will mark the third game in four nights for both teams. Back the Isles to maintain their dominant home form.
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars (Thursday)
This will be the week's second meeting between these teams, which also face off in Winnipeg on Tuesday. Regardless of what happens in that first game, the Stars should take the home leg. They've won three in a row over the Jets in Dallas and 10 of their last 12 overall at American Airlines Center.
Game props
Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks (Monday)
The Ducks are riding back-to-back shutouts on home ice, while the Kings have scored two goals or fewer in each of their last eight road games. The last time they managed three away from home was in a 3-2 win in Winnipeg on Oct. 22. They've also been held to two or fewer goals in three of their last four games in Anaheim and six of their last eight overall against the Ducks. Play Los Angeles' team total under 2.5.
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets (Tuesday)
Goals over the opening 20 minutes have been rare at Bell MTS Place this season. In seven of the Jets' last nine home games, there's been a maximum of one goal in the first period, while six of the Stars' last seven away games have gone under the total in the first period. Take under 1.5 in the opening frame; that also would have hit the last four times these teams met in Manitoba.
Player props
Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars (Thursday)
I'm all about these Jets versus Stars games, apparently. Dallas has been playing some terrific defensive hockey since the start of November, but Patrik Laine has 17 goals in 15 career games against the Stars, including one in Winnipeg's 5-3 loss in Dallas a couple of weeks ago. Those numbers are too good to ignore. It's worth betting on Laine to find the back of the net again Thursday.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section
There were no games Thursday due to Thanksgiving, so we're treated to a very busy schedule this weekend, with a whopping 17 teams playing both Friday and Saturday.
Here's your guide to navigating the chaos.
Game betting
Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres (Friday)
It's Maple Leafs or bust when it comes to picking a side here, but you're paying a premium to back them in Buffalo. The Sabres have struggled to score in recent weeks and this game comes with an inflated total thanks to Toronto starting Michael Hutchinson. The over is a popular play but this is a good spot to be a contrarian and back the under of 6.5 goals despite the rate at which the Maple Leafs are scoring.
St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars (Friday)
The Blues are coming off a big win in Tampa on Wednesday night, while the Stars were shutout in Chicago on Tuesday. Dallas will be out for revenge after being dumped from the playoffs last season by St. Louis and has been in impeccable form throughout November, winning all six of its home games. The Stars get the job done here to finish the month with a record of 7-0 at American Airlines Center.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals (Friday)
The line makes this virtually a pick'em (-110) as the Lighting continue to be overvalued by oddsmakers. Fading Tampa Bay is always a dangerous proposition because the Lightning have the talent to break out and win on any given night, regardless of their opponent. But there's too much value here to not take the white-hot Capitals at even money on home ice.
Nashville Predators at Florida Panthers (Saturday)
This is something of a perfect storm. The Predators are 7-2 to the over on the road this year and have been unable to keep goals out of their net. Juuse Saros will likely get the start here with Nashville also playing Friday, and he's having a rough season with a 3.13 goals-against average and an .891 save percentage. The Panthers have scored the third-most goals in the NHL and are 9-2 to the over at home this season. Consider backing them on the puck line here, but definitely play the over, even if it's at 6.5.
San Jose Sharks at Arizona Coyotes (Saturday)
The Sharks have done well to turn around their season after a brutal start, but this is a tough spot for them as they fly to Arizona after hosting the Los Angeles Kings on Friday. San Jose has scored just four goals in three latter games of a back-to-back this season, and it's hard to envision an outburst against a Coyotes team that keeps it tight in defense. The under looks like a strong play, as does Arizona on the moneyline.
Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks (Sunday)
This is the second game of a home-and-home between these teams after a matchup Saturday in Edmonton. That first contest is a no-go for me, though I'd take the Oilers and the under if forced to make a play. Sunday, however, with Thatcher Demko likely in net, you should back the Canucks to finish the weekend series strong. The under is also worth a look at any total of six or higher.
Game props
Colorado Avalanche at Chicago Blackhawks (Friday)
A meeting between the Avalanche and Blackhawks suggests goals, but that hasn't been the case when they meet in Chicago. The first-period under has hit in seven of their last eight meetings in the Windy City.
Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs (Saturday)
Note: this is for Saturday's game in Toronto, with Frederik Andersen starting. The Sabres' offense has dried up significantly, especially on the road. With the Maple Leafs galvanized by their coaching change and playing much better hockey, look at Buffalo's team total under 2.5, which has been a profitable play when the Sabres are on the road in the second game of a back-to-back.
Player props
Chicago Blackhawks at Colorado Avalanche (Saturday)
Again, this is for Saturday's game in Colorado, not Friday's in Chicago. Mikko Rantanen is set to return to the Avalanche's lineup for this game after being sidelined since Oct. 21 with an ankle injury. I like him to mark his return with a goal. He has four tallies in his last four home games against the Blackhawks.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.