All posts by Alex Moretto

NHL Wednesday betting preview: Fade the Leafs in Dallas

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Today is bounce-back day.

After sweeping the board Monday we settled for a 1-2 record Tuesday, thanks to an insanely frustrating finish in Buffalo.

We had some limited options with just two games on the schedule - something we definitely don't have to worry about Wednesday.

GOATs and scapegoats

Ryan O'Reilly played a starring role for the St. Louis Blues (+105) Tuesday, assisting on the game-tying goal in the third period, doing a masterful job on the penalty kill in overtime, and scoring a beauty in the shootout, helping us salvage a winning end to the night.

The reason we had to salvage something was because of a putrid Buffalo Sabres' penalty kill. The Ottawa Senators went 3-for-3 on the power play for the first time all season. We needed Jack Eichel to finish with a positive plus-minus, and he was on track to in the dying minutes, sitting at plus-one thanks to his goal. However, the Sabres were also losing late because of that pathetic excuse for a penalty kill, and Eichel was on the ice trying to tie the game when Ottawa scored into an empty net. Perfect.

Wednesday's bets

Nashville Predators/Washington Capitals over 6.5 (-105)

Alex Ovechkin returns to the ice tonight having served his one-game suspension for skipping the All-Star Game, and I'd imagine he's got a bit of an on-ice statement prepared. The Capitals can score in bunches and so can the Predators, who also struggle to keep pucks out of their net. The over is 5-0 in Nashville's last five games as underdogs, as well as 5-0 in the last five meetings between these teams.

Anaheim Ducks (+110)

The Arizona Coyotes were putting together a strong season but were largely flying under the radar as the small-market team they are. That all changed when Taylor Hall was acquired. The bandwagon started to fill up after the trade, but the Coyotes are just 7-8-1 since bringing in the former MVP. They've also lost four consecutive on the road (scoring just four goals) and six of their last seven. This is a team struggling to win and score outside of the desert, now facing one of the world's best goalies in the Ducks' John Gibson, who has remarkably better numbers in Anaheim this season.

Los Angeles Kings' team total under 2.5 (-120)

The game under could also be a play here, but there's always the risk of the Tampa Bay Lightning scoring six on their own. The Kings have scored two or fewer goals in six of their last eight home games and have been held to one or fewer in each of those games against teams of comparable skill level to Tampa. The Lightning are allowing just 1.8 goals per game in 2020 and the Kings are 30th in the NHL in goals scored all season. Trust Tampa's resurgence tonight in Los Angeles.

Best bet

Dallas Stars (-115)

The Toronto Maple Leafs' road numbers under Sheldon Keefe are impressive. They're 11-4 outside of Toronto since he took over, as well as 8-1 on the road against Western Conference teams. But the Stars are an entirely different beast. They're 16-5-1 at home since Oct. 18 and have some of the best underlying numbers in the NHL. They're a fundamentally sound hockey team that is more equipped to take advantage of the Leafs' defensive frailties.

As hard as it might be to overlook Toronto's road numbers, trust in the better team to get the job done tonight on home ice.

Trend of the night

The Vancouver Canucks have lost eight of their nine games against the San Jose Sharks in California over the last four seasons (including this one).

Even more remarkably, the Canucks have scored a meager 16 goals in those nine games, and just 11 in the eight losses. But how seriously should we take Vancouver's struggles in San Jose considering both teams are significantly different this season than they were over the last three? The Canucks are drastically improved and sitting atop the Pacific Division, while the Sharks, perennial Stanley Cup contenders, are near the basement of the Western Conference. Because of that I'm not putting as much stock into this trend, and it's a no-play for me.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Tuesday betting preview: Eichel to feast on reeling Senators

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We enjoyed a triumphant return to the ice Monday, sweeping the board for a substantial profit.

Our best bet, the Toronto Maple Leafs, was never in doubt. The Dallas Stars pushed us to 2-0 with an overtime win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Vancouver Canucks capped things off by beating the defending Stanley Cup champions.

We're on a heater and we've got more winners tonight.

GOATs and scapegoats

There were no scapegoats on Monday night, since it's kind of hard to have one when you're perfect. Monday was chock-full of GOATs.

Frederik Andersen made 34 saves, Jamie Benn potted an overtime winner, J.T. Miller scored a pair, and Thatcher Demko edged Andersen with 36 saves against the St. Louis Blues.

Tuesday's bets

Buffalo Sabres -1.5 (+130)

No one really has fun visiting Buffalo, but the Ottawa Senators seem to have an especially unpleasant time. The Sens have lost three in a row and five of their last six against the Sabres south of the border. Ottawa allowed 18 goals in its last three road games in Buffalo while scoring two or fewer in seven of the team's last eight at KeyBank Center.

The Senators just plain stink on the road in general this season, having dropped their last seven outside Ottawa and 11 of their last 12. They're also playing this game on no rest in the midst of a 2-8 run on the second leg of back-to-backs, a spot where they're 6-18 over the past two seasons. Those are all pretty miserable numbers coming into a matchup with a Sabres team that's on an 8-3 run at home and already beat Ottawa 4-2 earlier this season when the Senators visited on no rest.

St. Louis Blues (+105)

I faded the Blues on Monday in Vancouver, but I like them Tuesday against the Calgary Flames. We're getting them at a deflated price because they just played, but the Blues have actually excelled on back-to-backs of late. They're 7-2 in the second leg over the last calendar year and 3-0 in that spot on the road this season. We also get the added bonus of Jordan Binnington starting after Jake Allen got the nod against the Canucks.

The Flames have lost three straight in at home to the Blues, scoring just three goals in those games, and they haven't been all that impressive at the Saddledome this season, posting a 5-6 record against Western Conference teams. Ride with St. Louis tonight at a discounted price.

Best bet

Jack Eichel over 0.5 plus-minus (+125)

No one slays the Senators quite like Eichel. OK, lots of players do these days, but Jack the Ripper seems to have a lot of fun when Ottawa comes to town. In three home games against the Sens in the last two seasons, Eichel has five goals and five assists. That's an outrageous 10 points in three contests. In a game that the Sabres should have no problem winning comfortably (see above and below), Eichel will likely be a driving factor for Buffalo.

To get him at a plus-minus over 0.5 should be easy. Even if he's not the one scoring the goals, he should be on the ice for a couple. In those three home games against Ottawa, Eichel was a plus-four, plus-two, and plus-two for a combined plus-eight.

Bonus plays: Sticking in the Eichel market, I'll be dabbling on Eichel to score two or more goals at +475, as well as the Eichel to score and Buffalo to win prop at +110. Getting him over 1.5 points at +125 isn't the worst bet in the world, either.

Find me in a ditch at the end of the night when Ottawa wins 3-0.

Trend of the night

The Senators are 0-4 in games started by Craig Anderson in 2020.

Rookie Marcus Hogberg has begun to take over between the pipes, with Anderson's appearances becoming more sporadic. The 38-year-old is winless in four starts in 2020 with an .862 save percentage and has allowed at least four goals against in each game. You can get the Sabres' team total over 3.5 goals at -110 and over 4.5 at +215.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Monday betting preview: Plenty of short prices to target

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The NHL returns following a four-day break for All-Star Weekend that felt like an eternity.

But meaningful hockey is back, and with 10 weeks left in the regular season, every game starts to become a bit more meaningful.

Before we dive into Monday's games, here's an embarrassing recap of my degenerate weekend betting on the All-Star Game.

GOATs and scapegoats

The NHL may have taken a break over the weekend, but I refused to follow suit. Betting on the All-Star Game is as minus-expected value (-EV) as it gets, but I just couldn't help myself. In doing my research, I came across some info that I felt gave Team Central an edge heading into the three-on-three tournament, and I ran with it.

Well, San Jose Sharks forward Tomas Hertl scored four goals, Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl potted a hat trick, and Team Central collapsed in front of its home fans in St. Louis, losing 10-5 in the tournament opener to Team Pacific, which scored the game's final five goals. I was livid, so naturally, I chased.

Rarely do these situations have happy endings, but I'm pleased to announce I live bet Team Pacific in the final at +275 after Team Atlantic opened up an early 2-0 lead. Team Pacific eventually battled back, and Hertl, who was an absolute assassin during All-Star Weekend, returned the favor after shafting me in the tournament opener, scoring the game-winner with a couple of minutes to go. My losses were recouped, but I'm still coming to grips with the fact that I bet unnecessary amounts of money on a game of pond hockey.

Monday's bets

Dallas Stars (+115)

No team in the Western Conference has a better record since Oct. 18 than the Dallas Stars (26-10-3), who are also 15-5-1 at home over that span. And, for as well as the Tampa Bay Lightning have been playing, they've been a mixed bag away from home. The Bolts have lost two of their last three on the road to a pair of much weaker teams in the Minnesota Wild and New Jersey Devils, and have just one road win over the past three months against clubs currently in the top three of their respective divisions.

Now they travel to take on a Stars team that's incredibly hard to beat on home ice, with goaltender Ben Bishop getting a shot against his former club. It's rare to get value with Dallas on home ice, but it's present here given the quality of the team's opposition, and it would be foolish not to take advantage.

Vancouver Canucks (+110)

We can apply the same logic we used for the Stars on the Canucks. Vancouver is one of the league's best teams on home ice, winning eight games in a row at Rogers Arena and 11 of 13 since Dec. 1. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Blues have lost four in a row on the road and six of their last nine. Their only wins over that stretch have come against a few of the weaker teams in the Western Conference - the Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, and Winnipeg Jets. Of those nine road games, five of them came against teams with 57 points or more, and they've posted an 0-5 record in those contests. Trust the Canucks on home ice.

Bonus play: Vancouver has a tendency to play a lot of close games when the league's best teams visit Rogers Arena. On home ice this season, the Canucks have gone to overtime against the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, Washington Capitals, and the Blues. Betting on this game to be tied after 60 minutes at +300 is hardly the worst bet in the world.

Best bet

Toronto Maple Leafs (-105)

Despite underwhelming results, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators remain two of the most overvalued teams in the NHL by oddsmakers. This is a huge game to kick off the stretch run, with both clubs mired in a slump, but Toronto's struggles have largely come down to its play on home ice. On the road, the Leafs are 10-4 under Sheldon Keefe, including a very impressive 7-1 record against Western Conference teams. They're also on a 5-1 run away from Scotiabank Arena.

A road trip might be what Nashville needs right about now. The Predators are 5-11 straight up (SU) at home since the end of October and are on a 2-5 run in Nashville to Eastern Conference teams, beating only the Devils and Buffalo Sabres while losing to clubs that include the Lightning, Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, and Florida Panthers. The Leafs may be overrated, but they're a lot closer to that second group than the first one, and the Predators are too much of a mess to trust right now.

Trend of the night

The Washington Capitals have won 13 of their last 15 games over the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre.

The Habs have averaged just under two goals per game (1.93) over that span, while the Caps have averaged 3.67. Montreal is also 4-13 SU since mid-November, while Washington is 18-6-1 on the road this season. However, Alex Ovechkin is suspended for this matchup as a result of skipping the All-Star Game, and he's been a Canadiens killer in his career. Ovechkin's recorded 11 goals and five assists in 11 games at the Bell Centre over the past seven seasons. Avoid this contest with Ovechkin out and Montreal desperate.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL All-Star Game betting preview: Why Team Central is the way to go

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Anyone who claims to have the ability to cap the NHL All-Star Game is a cold-blooded liar.

We can analyze all sorts of numbers, break down data, and dive into past All-Star records until our eyes bleed, but truthfully, we don't have a clue.

There's just no way of knowing which players care to be there, which are out for a leisurely skate, who has chemistry with whom, how many were out drinking the night before (or early that morning), and about a thousand other variables we couldn't dream of capping if we tried. It's the All-Star Game, which in hockey talk loosely translates to "vacation." No one actually cares.

Now that we got the disclaimer out of the way, let's pick a winner!

The format for the All-Star Game remains the same as it was last season - a four-team (one per division), three-on-three, single-elimination tournament. The two Eastern Conference divisions - Atlantic and Metropolitan - face off in one game, and the Western Conference divisions - Pacific and Central - clash in the other.

Here are the odds for the two semifinal games, as well as odds for who will win the tournament:

Team Odds Total
Metropolitan +100 Over 12 (-115)
Atlantic -120 Under 12 (-105)
Team Odds Total
Pacific -115 Over 12.5 (-115)
Central -105 Under 12.5 (-105)
Team Odds
Atlantic +200
Pacific +210
Central +240
Metropolitan +290

With the games being three-on-three, regular-season overtime stats are the perfect place to start.

The player with the most overtime goals this season is St. Louis Blues and Central Division forward David Perron (four), who was voted "Last Man In" by fans. No other skater at the All-Star Game has more than two.

Perron highlights a Central Division squad that's had plenty of overtime success this season. Mark Scheifele, Tyler Seguin, and Nathan MacKinnon each have two overtime goals this season, while Team Central have collectively scored 13 - more than any other team.

Leon Draisaitl and Matthew Tkachuk each have two for Team Pacific, which has a total of seven, while Team Atlantic have six (Jack Eichel and Anthony Duclair the leaders with two each). Team Metropolitan are a distant fourth, with only T.J. Oshie and Jaccob Slavin netting overtime goals this season.

If you're concerned about the small sample size, consider this: Team Central's roster also combined for the most overtime goals last season, led by Patrick Kane and Scheifele's three each.

Also working in favor of Team Central is the fact it has four hometown players. Perron is joined by Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo, and Jordan Binnington, all playing in front of their home fans at Enterprise Center.

A first-round matchup against Connor McDavid and the rest of the Pacific Division All-Stars isn't ideal, but there's already some dysfunction surrounding Team Pacific that could prove its undoing.

Stemming from a fiery sequence in the Battle of Alberta two weeks ago, Draisaitl said he and Edmonton Oilers teammate McDavid would get off the ice if they had to play on a line with Tkachuk of the rival Calgary Flames. Trouble in paradise and the games haven't even begun.

The All-Star Game is all about having fun and playing loose, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to envision a scenario where there isn't tension and resentment on the Pacific Division bench. They also come into the weekend without both starting goalies - Marc-Andre Fleury abstaining from participating to rest and Darcy Kuemper missing out due to injury. All these factors make them tough to back at such short odds, just a shade longer than Team Atlantic, the favorites.

Team Atlantic is also dealing with a pair of big absences, with Auston Matthews withdrawing due to a wrist injury and Tuukka Rask pulling out to rest, having just recovered from a concussion. Still, as we've seen with the Metropolitan Division, it could be much worse.

Alexander Ovechkin dropped out of the game to rest, with Team Metropolitan also missing Jake Guentzel, Kyle Palmieri, Artemi Panarin, Dougie Hamilton, and Joonas Korpisalo due to injury. Slavin and Kris Letang were each named replacements, giving Team Metro four defensemen on the roster - no other team has more than two. It's a solid squad, but there's a real lack of star power compared to the other three teams, which makes it a justifiable underdog heading into the tournament.

The best value on the board has to be Team Central, who boast a deliciously skilled roster headlined by MacKinnon and Kane, a wealth of three-on-three success over the past two seasons, and home-ice advantage. It's also the only team not to have anyone drop out or withdraw due to injury.

At +240, you really can't go wrong.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Stanley Cup futures market: Why you should avoid last season’s finalists

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When people see a post telling them to avoid betting certain teams to win the Stanley Cup, there's a tendency to overreact. The automatic assumption is the author thinks those teams suck.

Spoiler: I don't.

The St. Louis Blues and Boston Bruins could definitely still win the Stanley Cup, as they're two of the NHL's top teams. But don't back them at their current price.

The 2019 Stanley Cup finalists are among the top three favorites to lift the trophy in June, just behind the league-leading Washington Capitals.

Team Odds
Washington Capitals 15-2
St. Louis Blues 8-1
Boston Bruins 9-1
Tampa Bay Lightning 9-1
Pittsburgh Penguins 9-1
Colorado Avalanche 9-1
Dallas Stars 14-1

*only teams with odds shorter than 15-1 are displayed

Both teams have earned a place atop the oddsboard, but at 8-1 and 9-1, there's next to no value in backing either to win the Stanley Cup. There's enough evidence to believe those prices are inflated, partially due to misleading records and recency bias.

The Blues have been one of the league's best and most consistent teams over the past calendar year, but a 2.53 expected goals for per game (xGF/60) shows they're not as good as the club's record indicates. That mark, which ranks 23rd, is largely rooted in the Blues struggling to create scoring opportunities.

They're also 23rd in scoring chances per game (SCF/60) and 27th in high-danger chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60). St. Louis has been converting a high percentage of its opportunities, which means the Blues are inevitably due for some regression. It's difficult to remain consistently successful against NHL-caliber goalies without a proven ability to generate quality chances. Of course, the Blues play smart fundamental hockey and don't approach games intending to simply outscore teams, but these numbers are at least cause for some concern.

St. Louis will never sizzle offensively, and injuries to some key forwards aren't helping. But the team's defensive numbers are perhaps even more worrisome.

The Blues are middle of the pack in expected goals against per game (17th), and in preventing high-danger scoring chances against (16th). They've come to rely heavily on a league-high .854 save percentage in high-danger situations. Jordan Binnington is good, but that's unsustainable.

The Bruins, meanwhile, may not find it difficult to suppress offense, but creating it is a problem.

They rank 21st in xGF/60 and, like the Blues, an inability to muster consistent scoring opportunities is the main culprit. Boston ranks 17th in SCF/60 and 25th in HDCF/60 while benefiting greatly from a 22.8 shooting percentage during high-danger chances. That's the fourth-highest mark in the league and an efficient source of offense that will be hard to sustain. In fact, we've already seen that number come down significantly from a month ago when Boston ranked first in that category.

Since Dec. 5 the Bruins have won just nine games while losing 14. They're playing well-below .500 hockey, and with the Tampa Bay Lightning surging behind them, their once seemingly insurmountable Atlantic Division lead is slipping from their grasp.

It's also worrying that Boston is struggling against top teams. Excluding the Bruins, 10 teams have notched 60-plus points heading into the All-Star break. The Bruins have produced a 5-11 record against those squads that they'll likely be facing on a nightly basis in the playoffs.

While the Blues and Bruins undoubtedly possess the talent to again reach the finals, where's the value in backing them at such short odds given these flaws?

Only one team has appeared in back-to-back Stanley Cup finals over the past decade - the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2016 and 2017 - and at these prices, you definitely shouldn't be betting St. Louis or Boston to become the second.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Consider this your last chance to buy low on the Dallas Stars

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On October 18, 2019, the Dallas Stars allowed three third-period goals in a 4-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, falling to 1-7-1 on the season and setting off alarm bells after beginning the campaign with Stanley Cup aspirations.

At that point, the data didn't look good: Dallas would need to win at least 63% of its remaining games just to have a chance at making the playoffs. For context, the Calgary Flames finished atop the Western Conference last season by winning 61% of their total games. These Stars would need to better that mark the rest of the way - and it still might not be enough.

Still, Dallas general manager Jim Nill stuck with his roster. He believed in what he was building, and with perseverance came validation. Since that loss to Pittsburgh, the Stars have won 67% of their games (26-10-3), the second-best rate in the NHL behind the Washington Capitals (70%). They now sit third in the West despite playing the fewest games to date.

Then there are the underlying numbers. The Stars rank second in the West in expected goals for and against per game (xGF/60, xGA/60). They've generated the second-most high-danger chances per game (HDCF/60) in the NHL and own the fourth-lowest shooting percentage from high-danger areas (HDSH%).

What does it all mean? Well, Dallas is expected to score a lot and allow very little. The team is also creating a ton of very good scoring opportunities but converting a low percentage of them. The HDSH% is due for positive regression, which would lead to even more goals scored. Simply put, there's been nothing lucky about this run of success.

Meanwhile, the Stars haven't been as reliant on their top line this season. Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Alexander Radulov still form one of the more dominant units in the NHL, but secondary scoring is much less of an issue than it was for this team in the past. Roope Hintz has stepped up in a big way, while Joe Pavelski and Corey Perry, both signed over the summer, have been valuable additions.

Not only do Pavelski and Perry give this team a more balanced lineup, but they also provide the experience that can help take Dallas to the next level. That's a scary thought when you consider the Stars were eliminated in the second overtime of a Game 7 by the eventual Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues last season.

In addition to a deep crop of forwards, the Stars possess two of the league's most dynamic defensemen in John Klingberg and Miro Heiskanen, who are complemented by one of the most underappreciated guys in Esa Lindell. Andrej Sekera has proven to be a valuable addition and Stephen Johns just made his return from a 660-day layoff due to concussion issues. This blue-liner group rivals any other in the NHL.

In goal, Ben Bishop hasn't missed a beat, posting a 2.28 GAA and a .927 SV%. The Stars haven't overworked him, either, thanks to the strong play of Anton Khudobin, who's posted nearly identical numbers (2.30 GAA, .927 SV%) through 20 games. That means Bishop should be fresh come playoff time and Dallas will have a reliable backup if he falters.

It's clear this roster features the skill and experience needed for a Stanley Cup run - yet Dallas is still reasonably priced at 14-1.

Team Odds
Washington Capitals 15-2
St. Louis Blues 8-1
Boston Bruins 9-1
Tampa Bay Lightning 9-1
Pittsburgh Penguins 9-1
Colorado Avalanche 9-1
Dallas Stars 14-1
New York Islanders 16-1
Vegas Golden Knights 16-1
Carolina Hurricanes 17-1
Toronto Maple Leafs 18-1

*only teams with odds shorter than 20-1 are displayed

Again, Dallas has been a top-three NHL team since the middle of October and it's only a matter of time before the odds are adjusted to reflect that. We've already seen it happen with the Blues and Avalanche, who were both listed at 14-1 as late as early December.

Consider this your last chance to buy low on the Stars.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Wednesday betting preview: Back the Blues to put on a show

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We had to settle for a 2-2 night on Tuesday, but still managed to turn a small profit.

Of course, if you followed along with our trend of the night and bet the Vancouver Canucks' team total under 2.5 (+130) and under 1.5 (+375) - they were shut out in Winnipeg - then you had yourself quite a night.

There are only two games on Wednesday, but with countless game bets and props at our disposal, there's plenty available for us to extend our winning run.

GOATs and scapegoats

How about the season Dominik Kubalik is having? The 24-year-old rookie from the Czech Republic tallied a pair of goals Tuesday to take his total to 18 on the season, bringing him to 28 points in 45 games. Not bad for a seventh-round pick.

His two goals helped the Chicago Blackhawks (-105) battle back from a 2-0 deficit to send the game to overtime, where Jonathan Toews took care of the rest to cash in our bet. That's seven goals in five games now for Kubalik - our GOAT of the night - and 10 points in his last six.

We're far less thankful for the Predators' special teams. Nashville went 0-3 on the power play and just 2-4 on the penalty kill in a 4-2 loss in Edmonton, killing our bet.

Wednesday's bets

Chicago Blackhawks (+160)

Are you kidding me with this line? The Blackhawks are a must-play based off principle alone. The Montreal Canadiens remain without Jonathan Drouin, Brendan Gallagher, and Joel Armia, and are starting Charlie Lindgren in net. The Habs are below .500 at home this season yet are -180 without All-Star goalie Carey Price in net? Come on. The Blackhawks are 7-1 in the second leg of back-to-backs this season and are a terrific value play in Montreal.

Corey Crawford over 28.5 saves (-115)

The Canadiens attempt more shots than any other team on home ice, averaging a league-high 36.6 per game. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks allow 36.9 per game on the road - also the most in the NHL. There should be plenty of rubber thrown the way of Corey Crawford, and with the Habs largely struggling to turn those shots into goals, he should comfortably get over this number.

Brayden Schenn over 0.5 assists (+145)

Unlike backing Schenn over 0.5 points at -154, we can get a significant return on this prop. The odds significantly lengthen for him to get an assist, of which he has seven in his past five home games. He's only scored six times in 24 games at the Enterprise Center, but has 13 assists.

Best bet

St. Louis Blues team total over 3.5 (-110)

The Blues have won nine straight on home ice and have scored at least four goals in seven of those games. It's hard to see them slowing down against a Flyers team struggling defensively of late, especially on the road, where they've allowed at least four goals in eight of their last nine games. They've also conceded at least five goals in their last four away from home, so sprinkle a little extra on the Blues' team total over 4.5 (+220).

Trend of the night

The Blackhawks have won five straight games in Montreal, limiting the Canadiens to just four goals and twice shutting them out.

This trend dates as far back as 2014, so it's hard to put too much stock into it, but we said the same thing last night about the Canucks in Winnipeg and they got shut out. Crawford being in net for this game hurts a bit, but you can get a great price on the Canadiens to score under 2.5 goals (+220) and under 1.5 goals (+575).

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL Monday betting preview: Back the Flyers as home ‘dogs

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Today might feel like an ordinary Monday, but it actually marks an exciting transition to nightly NHL betting previews. To completely misquote The Notorious B.I.G.: "Mo' picks, mo' money."

We capped off a very profitable weekend by robbing the books Sunday night, nailing a mortgage-the-house bet on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers game, which proved to be one of the easiest winners we'll hit all season. We crushed it with the over 6.5, Leafs' and Panthers' team totals over 3.5, and the first period over 1.5 goals. Florida won 8-4.

Let's strike while the iron is hot and jump into Monday's picks, but not before going over the good and bad from the weekend that was.

Goats and scapegoats

Vincent Trocheck is our money player of the weekend for his offensive outburst against the Leafs. The Panthers forward had a goal and two assists in the first 25:46, proving the catalyst for our wins.

Frederick Andersen comes in as a close second for being unable to stop a beach ball and getting pulled in the first minute of the second period.

Finally, Anthony Duclair is now our enemy. We were big on the Ottawa Senators on Friday night in Detroit, but they lost in a shootout and Duclair didn't help at all. Ottawa's leading scorer generated nothing against the league's worst team, failing to record even a single shot on net despite a team-high 3:32 of ice time on the power play.

Monday's bets

Calgary Flames (-110)

The Montreal Canadiens snapped an eight-game losing skid in overtime Saturday night, but this team is still battling a number of injuries and the bottom half of its roster resembles an AHL squad. Ben Chiarot is back but Brendan Gallagher's absence will be costly against a Flames team that has won seven of its last eight on the road and is 5-0 in 2020.

These teams are trending in opposite directions and, despite the fact the Canadiens have posted a worse record at the Bell Centre this season - 8-11-4, compared to 11-9-3 on the road - we can get the Flames at a very short price with this game being played in Montreal.

New York Islanders/New York Rangers over 6

The Rangers have found their scoring touch and are playing some good hockey at Madison Square Garden. Artemi Panarin has been an absolute stud as his team has scored at least five goals in each of its last four games on home ice. The issue is the Rangers also concede in bunches, resulting in six consecutive overs at MSG.

A visit from the Islanders shouldn't buck that trend, as they've scored at least three goals in six of their last eight on the road. Both teams are in a good rhythm offensively and shouldn't have much of an issue getting over this number.

Best bet

Philadelphia Flyers (+120)

Anything plus-money represents far too much value with the Flyers, who have lost a league-best seven home games this season (14-3-4). They ran into a hot Andrei Vasilevski - and an even hotter Tampa Bay Lightning - on Saturday, but offer great value in a bounce-back spot. The Boston Bruins are just .500 on the road since the start of December and have lost their last two trips to Philly.

Trend of the night

The St. Louis Blues have lost four straight home games against the Anaheim Ducks, their longest active home losing streak against any NHL team.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekend betting preview: Value with the Senators

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We've thus far enjoyed a great week on the ice with a 6-2 record, including a pair of generously priced underdogs coming through.

It started with a 0-1 night on Monday, but hopefully, you stuck to the script.

There's always more money to be won. Here's a look at the weekend action:

Game betting

Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings (Friday)

Generally, you should save your money rather than wager it on a matchup between two of the league's worst teams. But there's value in backing the Senators in Detroit at close to even money. Ottawa is bad, but the Red Wings are a lot worse. Detroit has won just 11 games this season, and three came in the first week of the campaign. The Senators have had a tough road schedule but are 3-0 away from home against the bottom four teams in the East. They've already defeated the Red Wings twice this season and offer way too much value at such a short price.

Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres (Saturday)

The Sabres are 6-2 since the beginning of 2019 in home games with a start time of 5 p.m. or earlier, including a 3-0 record in 1 p.m. contests like Saturday's. Buffalo has also won seven of its last nine on home ice, losing only to the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. The Canucks have been dominant at Rogers Arena but aren't the same team on the road, losing four in a row, and nine of their last 12, away to Eastern Conference teams. The Sabres continue to be undervalued and, with a lookahead line of -115, are definitely worth backing in Saturday's matinee.

Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators (Saturday)

It won't be long before #TankForLafreniere starts trending in Montreal, if it isn't already. The Canadiens got off to a strong start this season but injuries and sloppy defensive play have derailed their campaign. They've lost eight in a row by just one goal (excluding empty-netters), so they're playing competitive hockey and starting to get healthy. This will be the second game in as many nights for the Senators, who have lost 10 of their last 11 on home ice in the latter leg of a back-to-back. Take the Habs as likely short favorites.

Boston Bruins at New York Islanders (Saturday)

The Islanders haven't won at home against the Bruins since November 2013. Boston has won eight in a row, and 11 of its last 12, on the Island. New York has lost four of its last five on home ice after opening the season 13-2-1, while the Bruins seem to have rediscovered their scoring touch. Back Boston to make it nine straight road wins over the Isles.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Philadelphia Flyers (Saturday)

It's hard to go against the Lightning right now. Winners of nine in a row, their first-half struggles are clearly a thing of the past. However, the Flyers have been absolutely dominant at home this season, posting a league-best 14-2-4 record. Getting them at +120 (lookahead line) is too much value to pass up.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers (Sunday)

The Maple Leafs have scored four or more goals in each of their last five road games, and seven of their last eight, while the Panthers have scored at least five goals in five of their last six at BB&T Center. Defense will be an afterthought Sunday night in the Sunshine State.

Game props

Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes (Friday)

This marks the second game of a back-to-back for the Coyotes, who flew north to Carolina following last night's loss in Tampa. The first-period under has hit in nine of Arizona's last 10 road games played on no days' rest and represents great value here at plus money. The Hurricanes are one of the league's higher-scoring teams in the opening frame but the first-period under has cashed in three of their last six on home ice following a run of six consecutive overs.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers (Sunday)

As mentioned above, the Maple Leafs score in bunches on the road, just as the Panthers do at home. We're doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on the over, with the Maple Leafs' and Panthers' team totals over 3.5, as well as over 1.5 goals in the first period.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

NHL weekly betting preview: Making adjustments as 2nd half begins

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section

Now that every NHL team has played at least 40 games this season, the first Monday of 2020 signals the start of the second half.

Meanwhile, I've evaluated our bets from the opening half of the campaign and identified strong and weak points in our approach. For instance, we've been hitting on our underdog plays at a strong rate. Moving forward, we'll focus more on those value plays - while limiting the number of favorites we back - in hopes of ensuring a profitable stretch run.

Let's kick off 2020 with a bang.

Game betting

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs (Monday)

While both of these teams are certainly capable of playing run-and-gun hockey, it's not the preference for either of them. The Oilers have been the second-most-profitable under team on the road this season, while the Leafs have trended to the under on home ice since Sheldon Keefe's appointment as head coach. With a high total of 6.5, the under warrants serious consideration here.

Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers (Tuesday)

I like the Avalanche to beat the somewhat struggling Islanders on Monday before facing the Rangers on Tuesday. However, Colorado's in the midst of a 3-9 run on the road when given no rest, with six of the last seven such contests staying under the total. The Rangers are playing just .500 hockey on home ice, but they offer great value in this spot as home 'dogs.

Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights (Tuesday)

This game is part of a seven-game homestand for the Golden Knights, who've already won the first four. And Vegas has lost just once in eight attempts when playing its fifth successive home contest. Meanwhile, the Penguins are in the midst of an impressive road run, which has seen them win five of their last six away from Pittsburgh. They've been scoring a ton of goals - as have the Knights on home ice - which suggests the over is the strongest play here.

Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers (Wednesday)

The Flyers have posted an impeccable 13-2-4 record at home this season. The Capitals, once unbeatable on the road, have slipped a bit in recent weeks, losing in Boston and Carolina. This will be the second game of a back-to-back for Washington - which is playing at home on Tuesday - and when you consider the Flyers' impenetrable home form, they're certainly worth backing as 'dogs here.

Arizona Coyotes at Tampa Bay Lightning (Thursday)

Taylor Hall hasn't exactly hit the ground running with the Coyotes, scoring only twice in nine games while Arizona has posted just a 5-4 record with him in the lineup. The Lightning, meanwhile, finally seem to be figuring it out. They've won eight in a row entering this week and have shored up their defensive issues. But instead of laying a ton of juice with Tampa, consider the under 6.5 goals in a game featuring a pair of teams that have played stout defensive hockey in recent weeks.

Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks (Thursday)

The Stars will be decent-sized favorites when they visit California on Thursday, as they sit well ahead of the Ducks in the standings. However, the Ducks are a very different team on home ice (11-7-3) versus on the road (6-13-2). They've also won six straight over the Stars in Anaheim, holding Dallas to just nine total goals in those games, including a pair of shutouts. Ride with the Ducks as home 'dogs in this one.

Game props

Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals (Tuesday)

You have to go all the way back to November 2013 to find the last time the Senators scored at least three goals in Washington. Ottawa has been held to two goals or fewer in its last eight visits to D.C., making its team total under 2.5 a very strong bet here.

Vancouver Canucks at Florida Panthers (Thursday)

These teams are no strangers to scoring - or allowing - early goals. The Canucks have hit the first-period over in six of their last eight on the road, while the Panthers have hit the mark in three straight at home and five of their last seven overall. So, there should be plenty of fireworks when these clubs meet in the Sunshine State; don't hesitate to back the over 1.5 goals in the first period.

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2020 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.