With the dust settling on a chaotic offseason and the new season still a couple of months away, oddsmakers have released the opening lines for teams to make or miss the playoffs.

The Colorado Avalanche (-4000) are considered the likeliest team to qualify for the postseason by oddsmakers, while the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Buffalo Sabres, and Ottawa Senators (all +1500) have been dubbed least likely.

Atlantic Division

The Atlantic is commonly referred to as the NHL's best division, but it should more reasonably be considered the league's most top-heavy. Just six teams have odds of -475 or shorter to make the playoffs, and four hail from the Atlantic - the Bruins (-650), Panthers (-475), Lightning (-2000), and Maple Leafs (-1200).

Only the top three clubs in a division qualify automatically for the postseason, with the rest fighting for the conference's two wild-card spots, so it could be worth taking a flier on one of the four big favorites to miss the playoffs at long odds. But the best value appears to be on the Canadiens to miss the postseason (-200). Despite an impressive run to the Cup Final last season, it's hard to see the Habs - now thin down the middle and worse on the back end - unseating any of the four teams listed above.

Metropolitan Division

While the Atlantic is the most top-heavy division, the Metropolitan is the most open-ended. Six of the eight teams are favored to make the playoffs, with the Devils (+160) not too far off, either. The Metro is shaping up to be a gauntlet, in which the top seven teams could finish in just about any order and it wouldn't be considered a shock.

The Metro houses the two clubs with the longest active playoff appearance streaks in the Penguins (15) and Capitals (7), but those could be in jeopardy this campaign as there's value on betting both to miss the postseason. Pittsburgh (+210) failed to address its goaltending issues, and Washington (+130) owns the league's oldest roster. With the Hurricanes and Islanders still boasting very strong lineups, and the Flyers, Rangers, and Devils all considerably improved, the Penguins and Capitals have their work cut out for them this season.

Central Division

The West's toughest division is led by the Avalanche, viewed by oddsmakers as the league's biggest postseason lock and one of five teams from the Central projected to reach the playoffs. The Wild (-320) have the next shortest odds, but the Kirill Kaprizov contract still needs sorting. Minnesota benefitted last season from playing in a top-heavy West Division and isn't as big a lock as this line suggests, especially in a deep field.

The Stars were always going to be better simply by having greater injury luck, but some smart offseason signings have them trending toward a return to the playoffs. The Blues are primed for a bounce-back as well, while the Blackhawks are drastically improved and will undoubtedly push for a top-three finish. It leaves the Jets in a vulnerable position, though they did really well to strengthen their blue line. And in front of Connor Hellebuyck, that will be enough to keep them in the mix.

Pacific Division

By far the league's weakest division, oddsmakers expect just three Pacific teams to reach the playoffs. The Golden Knights are the division's runaway favorites, while the Oilers and Kraken round out the top three. The latter two still have serious question marks heading into the 2021-22 season, with Edmonton weak on the blue line and in goal and Seattle thin at center.

Two teams warranting playoff consideration are the Flames (+115) and Kings (+215). Calgary made a few really smart moves this offseason and will be much improved after a lost 2021 campaign, while L.A. is strong down the middle and has an exciting crop of young players coming through to complement its veteran core. In the weak Pacific, both have a realistic shot at finishing inside the top three or at least stockpiling enough points against the division's bottom-feeders to secure a wild-card berth.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Less than a week after the Tampa Bay Lightning won their second straight Stanley Cup, teams are already preparing for the Seattle expansion draft, the 2021 NHL Draft, and the start of free agency at the end of July.

It's all happening quickly, meaning now is the time to lock in early NHL value futures, with odds sure to change considerably over the next few weeks as teams shape their rosters for next season.

The Colorado Avalanche open as favorites to win the 2022 Stanley Cup despite the uncertainty surrounding captain and pending unrestricted free agent Gabriel Landeskog. Behind them are Vegas Golden Knights, followed by the Lightning, who will aim to be the first team to three-peat since the 1984 New York Islanders.

Tampa Bay Lightning (+700)

Everyone is waiting for the Lightning to be stripped for parts this offseason, but the situation might not get so grave for Tampa GM Julien BriseBois. Mathieu Joseph and Ross Colton look ready to step up should the team lose pending free agents Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman, and the Lightning have done a terrific job finding bargain players - like Goodrow - to round out their roster.

Might they consider finding a new home for Steven Stamkos - who had just six five-on-five points in 23 playoff games - while he still offers value at his current $8.5-million salary? Tampa will look different next season, but don't rule out another repeat with the core set to stay largely intact.

Toronto Maple Leafs (+1200)

Though it's considered an old-school line of thought, playoff success has largely remained contingent on good goaltending, strong depth, and size on the back end. Championship clubs obviously have high-end talent as well, but that alone is not enough to win in the postseason. Teams can't play their offensive stars 24 minutes a night and expect to survive a long playoff run. The ice-time distributions among the forward groups of this season's final four teams confirm as much.

The Maple Leafs have as much high-end talent as any team, and general manager Kyle Dubas could add another top-six forward this offseason. But the bottom six is dire, and the cap space isn't there to fix it. The goaltending situation, meanwhile, remains a massive question mark. Without those components settled, it's hard to take Toronto seriously in a playoff setting.

New York Rangers (+2500)

The Rangers are sure to be a big liability for sportsbooks next season, with the bandwagon filling up fast as fans fall in love with their young talent. Though they should push for a playoff berth in a tough Eastern Conference, the growing pains that accompany such a young roster could be enough to hold this team back. There's also uncertainty about the Rangers' depth down the middle.

New York is being priced under the assumption that its young players - particularly Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko - make considerable strides, but development isn't linear. Buying into the Rangers at this price means buying what they could be. Investing in a team's potential instead of its most likely outcome is a surefire way to lose money in the long run.

Dallas Stars (+3500)

This is as good a time as any to buy in on a Stars team that couldn't buy a break last season. COVID-19 issues and weather postponements forced Dallas to play an impossibly condensed schedule while already hamstrung by fatigue and injuries - Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov, and Ben Bishop played a combined 14 games. Getting those three back will be key, as the Stars are expected to return virtually all of their 2020-21 roster, including a trio of emerging superstars in Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Miro Heiskanen.

Seattle Kraken (+5000)

A Vegas-like first season from the Kraken is unrealistic - but also not impossible. The league's expansion format caters well to new teams, and the path is certainly there for GM Ron Francis to position this club for immediate success. Winning teams are built from the back out, and there will be no shortage of quality goaltenders and defensemen available to the Kraken in the expansion draft. Playing in a weak Pacific Division doesn't hurt, either.

Los Angeles Kings (+5500)

Speaking of a wide-open Pacific Division, the Kings - who have already been busy acquiring Viktor Arvidsson from the Predators - are another interesting team to watch. There's still some good hockey left in the core that remains from 2014, but it's the youngsters coming through the system who bettors should take note of. Los Angeles has the best farm system in the NHL and is about to be rewarded for it, with forwards Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev, Alex Turcotte, and Gabe Vilardi all expected to contribute next season.

The depth of the Kings' system gives them the flexibility to part with more of their significant draft capital, as they did once already for Arvidsson. They're being linked to several big-name players as general manager Rob Blake's rebuild nears completion, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him big-game hunting this offseason. Buy some early stock at 55-1.

New Jersey Devils (+10000)

There's a lot to like about the direction the Devils are heading. Injuries made it a lost year for Nico Hischier, but the club has to be thrilled with the steps taken by Jack Hughes. New Jersey is impressively deep down the middle with some exciting scoring on the wing. This team's glaring issue is defense, and though goaltending also plagued it last season, Mackenzie Blackwood deserves the benefit of the doubt.

If the Devils can improve their blue line and add some experience up front - they have the second-most cap space in the league to do so - they could surprise in a division featuring multiple other teams on the downswing.

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

It is said that history repeats itself - a sentiment that should inspire both franchises contesting this Stanley Cup Final.

For the Tampa Bay Lightning, these playoffs have followed a script nearly identical to that of last year's championship run. After beating a team of plucky underdogs in the first round, they dispatched fellow Cup hopefuls in five games in the second before overcoming the New York Islanders in the third. And, for the second year in a row, waiting for Tampa in the final is a surprise opponent led by an interim head coach, a B.C.-born captain, and Corey Perry.

History runs much deeper for the Montreal Canadiens as they conjure memories from their 1993 Stanley Cup triumph. Armed with a shutdown center from Quebec, a budding American winger, and a generational goalie, they're on a playoff run that feels eerily similar to that victorious campaign. They overcame a two-game deficit against their rivals in the first round, swept Round 2, and won a pair of overtime games in the third to reach the final.

Can the Canadiens channel the Ghosts of the Forum to end the longest Cup drought in franchise history? Or will the Lightning secure an identical end to their sequel?

Lightning (-260) vs. Canadiens (+220)

Regular-season stats

*five-on-five

Playoff stats

*five-on-five

The Canadiens have been underdogs in every series, and for the third time, oddsmakers are giving them less than a 33% chance of winning. The last time a Cup finalist was longer than a -200 favorite was when the Vancouver Canucks were favored over the Boston Bruins in 2011 - also the last time a Canadian team made the final. The Bruins won in seven games.

Though the Canadiens may feel they're again being disrespected after toppling several big favorites, the Lightning have been the league's best team for the greater part of three years. Tampa largely coasted to the Cup last year despite missing Steven Stamkos, and the team is back nine months later with a full complement of stars. Still, odds of -260 suggest the Lightning have a 72.2% chance of repeating as Stanley Cup champions. They're worthy favorites, but that's rather aggressive.

Montreal's underdog status throughout these playoffs is largely down to its 18th-place finish in a regular season plagued by injuries, COVID-19 stoppages, and an impossibly condensed schedule. The Canadiens were also mostly without Cole Caufield - a true superstar in the making who has revolutionized the team's offense - and interim coach Dominique Ducharme had just four practices to implement his system between his February takeover and the end of the season in May. Ducharme has had far more practice time with the team since the start of the playoffs, and the returns of a structure that's stymied three of the league's best offenses this postseason are starting to show.

Montreal's regular-season record left plenty to be desired, but the stats above show just how similar these teams have been over the course of the regular season and playoffs. Remove the club names, and the numbers suggest a tight final is on tap - one much closer than the odds indicate.

The Canadiens are also currently playing far above those numbers. Montreal owns a playoff-best 56.06% share of the expected goals at five-on-five since Game 5 against the Toronto Maple Leafs, getting the better of a Vegas Golden Knights team that's typically dominant in that regard. Montreal is peaking at the ideal time, playing its best hockey when it matters most.

Tampa's largest statistical edges in the regular season were in save percentage and on special teams. Those gaps have narrowed considerably in the playoffs. Carey Price has matched Andrei Vasilevskiy every step of the way; splitting hairs over who's been the better netminder is an exercise in futility.

Vasilevskiy leads the playoffs in goals saved above average and goals saved above expected. Price sits second in both. But that says more about their respective defense corps than about the goaltenders themselves. Vasilevskiy has faced 154 high-danger shots against compared to Price's 120, and while their save percentages are virtually identical, the greater quality allowed by Tampa has sparked Vasilevskiy's edge in goals saved above expected. The bottom line: Two of the world's best netminders are both at the top of their game right now, and they're about to go toe to toe.

Tampa's other regular-season edge - special teams - could be the key in this series when the Lightning's power play clashes with Montreal's penalty kill. The defending champions are clicking at nearly 40% on the man advantage and have scored at least one power-play goal in 11 playoff games. They've had six contests with at least two power-play goals and have tallied three on three occasions - once in each series.

That said, special teams can be streaky, and the Lightning came back down to earth slightly in the semifinals, failing to register a power-play goal in four of their last five games against the Islanders. They now face the hottest special-teams unit of the postseason: a Canadiens penalty kill that hasn't allowed a power-play goal since Game 5 of Round 1 and has killed off 30 straight penalties since.

Nikita Kucherov's status bears monitoring here. If his injury limits his effectiveness, it will be a significant blow for a Tampa power play that's been especially lethal with two dangerous shooters on the half-wall. The play on which Kucherov appeared to suffer the injury suggests a broken rib (or ribs) is likely. Such an ailment takes weeks to heal and would certainly limit his effectiveness. Without Kucherov in the regular season, Tampa was ninth in power-play efficiency at only 22.2%. He logged just 16:29 of ice time in Game 7 against New York, and if he's not at full strength against Montreal, the Lightning's 37.7% success rate in the playoffs will likely plummet.

Of all the matchups in this series, the special teams battle feels like the most significant. If the Canadiens can't keep the Lightning power play at bay, this final could be over in a hurry. But if Montreal's penalty kill stays hot, the underdogs have a real shot at the upset - because they aren't at all out of their depth at five-on-five.

The Canadiens have been a strong five-on-five team for the last several years, ranking third in expected goals for percentage and Corsi For percentage over the past three seasons. That hasn't always translated to overall success for a team held back by the league's 25th-ranked PDO - a harbinger for positive regression. Part of Montreal's low five-on-five shooting percentage can be attributed to an absence of quality scorers up front. While the recent uptick has been a long time coming, it's largely a product of the arrivals of Tyler Toffoli and Caufield and the emergence of Nick Suzuki.

In addition to a low PDO, special teams and goaltending previously plagued the Canadiens. That's all changed over the past month, with a new coaching staff effecting positive changes and Price rediscovering his Vezina form. So while Montreal's playoff run is largely viewed as an underdog story, there's plenty of evidence to prompt a reframing of this team's success. The ability to drive play has always been there, but only recently have the rest of the pieces fallen into place - Ducharme and general manager Marc Bergevin deserve a ton of credit for that.

The continued development of Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi and the experienced play of Phillip Danault and Eric Staal have also provided the Canadiens with the center depth they've craved for years. That newfound depth gives them a real chance to match up with Tampa's forward corps.

On the back end, there's very little separating these teams. Tampa does well to spread out its blue-line talent, but Erik Cernak has struggled, Jan Rutta doesn't belong on the top pairing, and Victor Hedman is clearly operating at less than full strength. Montreal's third pairing can be a liability, but the team has competently sheltered the duo, with a top four that's been nothing short of excellent carrying the bulk of the burden.

The Canadiens have already slain multiple giants in these playoffs. The Lightning - a team with elite star power, depth, goaltending, and coaching - are the greatest threat of all, but they aren't exactly Goliath to Montreal's David. There's a clear recipe for success for the Canadiens in this series, with goaltending and special teams the key ingredients. It will require near-flawless execution from all involved, but they can finish the job.

Pick: Canadiens (+220)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Stanley Cup semifinals have delivered. Both series are down to a best of three for a spot in the final, with six of the eight games so far decided by just one goal.

Oddsmakers pegged each series to be lopsided, with the Lightning -300 favorites over the Islanders and the Golden Knights an almost unheard of -500 to beat the Canadiens.

They've been anything but one-sided through four games a piece, but oddsmakers have refused to change their stance. Will the favorites pull away, or will the underdogs continue to shine?

Lightning (-240) vs. Islanders (+200)

The Islanders were dealt a bit of a lucky hand to help them come out of the East Division. At five-on-five, they owned just a 46.3% share of the expected goals against the Penguins and a 46.4% share against the Bruins. They were outshot and outchanced through the first two rounds, but the downfall of Tristan Jarry and Tuukka Rask afforded them a clear lane to the semifinals.

However, they've grown stronger as these playoffs have worn on, and there's been nothing lucky about the Islanders' success against the Lightning. New York has controlled an exceptional 57.7% share of the expected goals at even strength in the series. That number has only dropped to 55.5% at all strengths as the team has contained a Tampa Bay power play that looked unstoppable through two rounds.

While the Islanders' top players don't get the same recognition as the Lightning's, they've been the better group in this series. Mathew Barzal has been the best player, with three goals and a ridiculous 78.18 xGF% against Tampa Bay. The top four players in expected goal share in this series are all Islanders. Three of their six defensemen have over a 60% share, while five of six are above 50%.

Conversely, Jan Rutta leads all Lightning defensemen with a 50% share. Three Tampa Bay blue-liners sit below the 40% mark. Also, Victor Hedman's injury is seemingly hampering his effectiveness. This team isn't the same without Hedman dominating on the back end.

The key here for the Islanders - this season's second-least penalized team - is to stay out of the box, because at five-on-five, Barry Trotz and Co. have figured out how to beat the Lightning. It would be ludicrous to lay -240 on a Tampa Bay team that's been second best through four games.

Pick: Islanders (+200)

Golden Knights (-360) vs. Canadiens (+300)

This series has largely mirrored Tampa Bay versus New York. Despite being overwhelming underdogs, Montreal has left little doubt it belongs in the final four. At five-on-five, the team owns 54.3% of the expected goal share and has generated 50 high-danger chances to just 34 for the Golden Knights.

The Canadiens have kept Vegas to the outside and away from the front of the net while using their speed to pose a consistent threat in transition. The Tyler Toffoli-Nick Suzuki-Cole Caufield line has been dominant, as has the Artturi Lehkonen-Phillip Danault-Brendan Gallagher trio. All six players have an expected goals share above 57% at five-on-five, with three of them over 67%. They've outplayed the Golden Knights' top six, which hasn't scored in this series.

Enough can't be said about the work the Danault line is doing. After shutting down Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews in Round 1, it's doing the same thing to Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, who've combined for two points. Stone's 31.3 xGF% in this series is the lowest among all skaters. Pacioretty's isn't much better at 38.3%.

Vegas has received timely scoring from the back end to stay even in the series - seven of its 10 goals have been scored by defensemen - but that's not a sustainable method for success. Until Peter DeBoer can make the necessary adjustments to penetrate Montreal's stubborn defensive structure, this series will continue to be played to the Canadiens' tune.

Furthermore, while it's impossible to account for officiating when capping a game or series, you have to assume power-play opportunities will be about even. That's hardly been the case thus far. Vegas has been the biggest beneficiary of some glaring missed calls. The Golden Knights have enjoyed a rare 11-6 power-play advantage, a gap that's sure to be much more even over the final three games. There's a lot working in the Canadiens' favor, and we get them at a generous price to boot.

Pick: Canadiens (+300)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

There's a familiar feel to these Stanley Cup semifinals, as the field features three of the four teams that contested here last season.

The Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders will meet in a rematch of last year's conference finals, while the Vegas Golden Knights will instead face the Montreal Canadiens for a chance at the Stanley Cup.

Once again the Lightning and Knights are overwhelming favorites to meet in the Stanley Cup Final, but as we learned last year, these things don't always play out according to script.

1. Golden Knights (-500) vs. 4. Canadiens (+375)

Regular-season stats

*five-on-five

Playoff stats

*five-on-five

Vegas and Montreal are set to meet for the first time since January 2019, the longest two third-round opponents have gone without playing each other in the lead up to a head-to-head series. The Canadiens won both meetings 5-4 during the 2019-20 season - both victories coming after regulation - and is 5-1-0 all time against Vegas.

This is familiar territory for the Knights, who were betting favorites to win the Stanley Cup heading into last season's conference finals before losing 4-1 to the Dallas Stars. This will be Vegas' third appearance in the semifinals in its short four-year history, though it's still chasing that elusive Cup win.

It's a series rife with storylines as the league's most successful franchise takes on its newest. Former Montreal captain Max Pacioretty will go up against his former team, as will Nick Suzuki, the Canadiens' young star who was acquired in the trade with Vegas. It's a trip home for Marc-Andre Fleury, the league's active leader in wins among Quebec-born goalies. It's a David vs. Goliath story in the sense that Montreal finished the regular season with the fewest points among playoff teams, while Vegas accrued the joint-most.

Most importantly, it's a meeting between the two teams with the best underlying numbers from the second round. The Canadiens posted an unheralded 68.1% share of the expected goals at five-on-five in their sweep of the Winnipeg Jets, while the Knights posted an excellent 59.0% share over six games against the Colorado Avalanche. The quality of opponent in these series was drastically different, but there's something to be said about Montreal winning the most lopsided playoff series in the last 14 seasons.

Say what you want about the North Division, but the run Montreal's on is truly remarkable. The Canadiens have won seven straight and haven't trailed in 437:45 - the second-longest streak in playoff history. They've outscored their opponents 24-12 over that span, posted a 31.6% success rate with the man advantage, and a perfect 100% on the penalty kill (15 attempts) with three shorthanded goals.

Vegas' run has been equally impressive, winning four straight over the Presidents Trophy-winning Avalanche, and doing so in dominant fashion. The Knights outscored Colorado 15-6 at five-on-five over the final four games and generated 50 high-danger chances to just 31 against. Vegas was full value for its series win, though Philipp Grubauer allowing 5.16 goals above expected in the final three games certainly didn't help Colorado's cause. Connor Hellebuyck saved 2.04 goals above expected while being swept by Montreal.

The Knights have certainly benefitted from the postseason's second-highest shooting percentage at five-on-five (8.98), and while regression is possible against Carey Price, who leads all goaltenders with a 4.8 GSAA in these playoffs, it's certainly not probable, either. Both goalies Vegas has faced so far rank in the bottom half of the playoffs in GSAA (minimum four appearances), while both goalies Montreal has faced rank inside the top five. For as well as Fleury has looked at times, he sits eighth.

While goaltending will be key here for the Canadiens once again, so too will special teams. The Knights have done the majority of their damage at five-on-five in these playoffs, as both special-teams units have been abysmal. Their power play has been anemic and the penalty kill victimized. Conversely, Montreal's penalty kill has been the top unit in the playoffs, holding a really strong Jets power play goalless. If the Habs' units can stay hot and maintain a big edge in this series, it will be a lot closer than the line indicates.

They will need to as well, because for as strong an even-strength team as the Canadiens have been over the years, Vegas is an entirely different beast. The Knights have ranked top-five in expected goal share at five-on-five in each of the last three seasons, overwhelming teams by rolling all four lines and staying aggressive on the forecheck. They play the same style as Montreal, only they do it better.

The Canadiens have held up well defensively in these playoffs, playing low-event hockey, but how will they fare against an incredibly deep Vegas lineup? Forward depth was supposed to be a strong suit for the Leafs and Jets, but the absence of John Tavares and Mark Scheifele quickly mitigated that. Vegas will need to contribute in this series should its top line be contained by Montreal's Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher, and Artturi Lehkonen.

The Canadiens' top line hasn't provided a ton of offense, but its ability to shut down the opposition's best players and allow the rest of Montreal's forwards to shine has been integral to this team's playoff success. It won't be as straightforward against a Vegas team that's received 21 goals total from its second and third line.

Vegas is deserving of being priced as heavy favorites, but this is extreme. The Canadiens have the depth to match up with the Knights, and while they can't match them for talent, they can bridge the divide with strong goaltending and efficiency on special teams. The Knights will have too much in the end as they book their place in the Cup final, but it won't come as easy as many are predicting.

Pick: Over 5.5 games (-110)

3. Lightning (-300) vs. 4. Islanders (+250)

Regular-season stats

*five-on-five

Playoff stats

*five-on-five

Unlike in the other series, these teams are no strangers to one another. This is a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Final, which the Lightning won 4-2 en route to winning the Stanley Cup. Both teams disposed of two very tough opponents to return to the semifinals, where Tampa are once again heavy favorites to repeat last season's success.

That's nothing new for the Islanders, who have continued to defy expectations in the playoffs, overcoming a 46.38% expected goal share and 41.97% Corsi share at five-on-five to beat both the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins. But have they finally met their match in the conference final?

Tampa started the playoffs strong and has only improved, managing 55% of the expected goal share at five-on-five against a really good Carolina Hurricanes team. The Bolts have also scored the second-most goals per 60 minutes in these playoffs while allowing the third fewest. Everything is clicking for them at the moment, including a power play converting at an almost unheard of 41.7%.

When you watch the Tampa power play you quickly understand why. The amount of weapons on this team is almost unthinkable, and they complement each other perfectly. If the Islanders are to be successful in this series they'll need to slow down the Tampa power play, but given how much they've struggled on the penalty kill - a miserable 61.5% success rate in the playoffs - it's hard to see that happening.

When you break down the numbers it truly is remarkable the Islanders are still alive in these playoffs. They haven't been good at five-on-five, and while their power play has been solid, their penalty kill has also put them at a disadvantage on special teams. Not to discredit the Isles, but they've benefitted from an unsustainably high PDO.

Their .944 save percentage at five-on-five is a tad high, even given their quality in the crease, while a 9.81 shooting percentage - by far the highest of any team in the playoffs - is absolutely due for regression.

The reason for the Islanders' high shooting percentage is largely down to the quality of goaltending they've faced. In the first round, Tristan Jarry posted a miserable minus-6.44 GSAA while allowing 6.72 goals above expected. He directly cost the Penguins at least three games and was a driving force behind New York's success. In the second round, Tuukka Rask inexplicably played through a torn labrum in his hip and his play deteriorated as the series progressed, allowing an absurd 4.96 goals above expected over the last two games.

Andrei Vasilevskiy won't be nearly as generous. His heroics consistently bail the Lightning out on their rare off nights. He's saved a remarkable 7.38 goals above expected in these playoffs, and is second with a 4.72 GSAA - narrowly behind Price, and well ahead of the rest of the pack. Solving him is going to prove a much tougher task for the Islanders, who are generating just 2.06 expected goals per 60 minutes and 8.6 high-danger chances per 60 at five-on-five in the playoffs, by far the worst marks among the final four teams.

With the Lightning expected to out-chance the Islanders throughout this series, New York will require an other-worldly performance between the pipes to pull off the upset. But consecutive semifinal appearances mean the Islanders are doing something right.

They're disciplined, structured, and opportunistic. They get timely saves and score timely goals. They're well-coached and everyone buys in. We know the Islanders are capable of knocking off the giants, but Tampa doesn't appear to be that giant.

The Lightning's unique blend of world-class talent and grit allows them to play and succeed in any environment, and they have the blueprint for defeating Barry Trotz's team, doing so at this stage last season without Steven Stamkos. All signs point to history repeating itself here.

Pick: Lightning -1.5 (-120)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The second round is in full swing as we head into the weekend. The Golden Knights are heading back to Vegas in desperation mode, and the Jets are without their captain as they look to battle back in the series. Meanwhile, the Lightning and Bruins are both attempting to move within a game of the Stanley Cup semi-finals.

Here's how we're betting this weekend's games.

Avalanche (-120) @ Golden Knights (+100)
June 4, 10 p.m. ET

T-Mobile Arena will be at full capacity for the first time since March 3, 2020, on Friday night, with 17,367 fans expected to fill the venue - the biggest crowd in an NHL arena since the start of the pandemic. That building is one of the loudest in the league when it's packed for a playoff game, and it's already earned a reputation as one of the most intimidating arenas to play in.

Vegas is going to need to feed off that energy as the team looks to claw its way back from a 2-0 series deficit, and there's plenty to build off after a really impressive showing in Game 2's losing effort. The Knights controlled 71.37% of the expected goal share and out-shot the Avalanche 35-13 at five-on-five, but the club was ultimately undone on special teams as a pair of power-play goals - including the overtime winner, which followed a bit of a soft penalty call - helped Colorado secure a 3-2 win.

Still, there were plenty of positives to draw upon from that game for Vegas. The squad was heavy on the forecheck and strong on the cycle, which helped disrupt the Avalanche's rhythm and keep them hemmed back. If the Knights can stay out of the box - Colorado's power play is close to untouchable at the moment - they will be well-positioned to grab their first win of the series in a packed T-Mobile arena and are good value to do so at even money.

Pick: Knights (+100)

Hurricanes (+120) @ Lightning (-140)
June 5, 4 p.m.

We bet the Hurricanes to claw back into the series in Game 3 and benefited from more of Jordan Staal's overtime magic, but the odds continue to be stacked against them in this series. Warren Foegele was the latest Carolina forward to suffer an injury on Thursday night, putting his status for this game in doubt with the club already missing Nino Niederreiter and Vincent Trocheck - although the latter isn't officially ruled out for Game 4. The Hurricanes have a deep roster, but that depth is really being tested right now against a Lightning side that's loaded up and down the lineup.

After being outplayed through the first two games and Andrei Vasilevskiy having to stand on his head to steal the pair of wins, Tampa actually put forth its best performance of the series in Game 3 - ironically in a losing effort. The Lightning controlled 58.51% of the expected goal share at five-on-five, both out-shooting and out-chancing the Canes. Petr Mrazek slammed the door shut, stopping all 30 shots at five-on-five and saving an absurd 2.32 goals above expected.

Tampa ended up doing its work on the power play, converting two of three opportunities and nearly making it three of three with some glorious chances to win the game late on. We can expect another strong showing from the Lightning here, especially at five-on-five, with Jon Cooper controlling the matchups on home ice and exploiting a suddenly thinning Carolina forward group.

Pick: Lightning (-140)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

The Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens will meet in the second round for North Division supremacy - as we all expected. Actually, if you read my North Division playoff preview, you might have seen this coming.

Instead of a Connor McDavid vs. Auston Matthews second-round series, we get Connor Hellebuyck vs. Carey Price - a fascinating duel between two of the league's best and hottest goaltenders.

3. Jets (-135) vs. 4. Canadiens (+115)

Overall

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

*all strengths

The Canadiens face a quick turnaround after their Game 7 win in Toronto on Monday, with Game 1 scheduled in Winnipeg on Wednesday. As thrilling as their first-round series against the Maple Leafs was, it puts them at something of a disadvantage in the second round.

Wednesday's opener will be especially tricky - it's a prime letdown spot after an emotional and improbable comeback, and the Jets are well rested. But that's only the start. Montreal's going to have a very tough time getting any rest. The Canadiens played seven games in 12 nights against Toronto, and have just one night off before playing Games 1-4 against Winnipeg over a six-day span (including one back-to-back). Meanwhile, the Jets haven't played since May 24, resting and getting some key players - especially Nikolaj Ehlers and Pierre-Luc Dubois - healthy.

Downtime was a decisive factor during the nine regular-season meetings between these teams, as well, with Montreal's compressed schedule resulting in the club being at a rest disadvantage in seven of the nine games (which was reflected in its overall 3-3-3 record). But it's a lot tougher to ramp up the intensity for a third game in four nights on a random weeknight in February than it is when stakes are raised in the playoffs, and the Canadiens hope they'll be buoyed again by having fans back in the Bell Centre stands, as was clearly the case in Game 6 against Toronto.

There's also an argument to be made that being locked in and feeling that playoff intensity every other night is actually beneficial to teams in the postseason, so the long layoff could potentially hurt the Jets. Teams didn't have extended breaks between series in last year's playoffs, but in 2019, three teams won via sweep and had at least nine days off before the next round, and all three of them lost after their lengthy layoff.

Despite the difficult circumstances in the majority of the Canadiens' games against Winnipeg, they got the better of the Jets at five-on-five. The Canadiens held an edge in xGF% and HDCF%, along with a massive advantage in CF% over nine meetings. And there's every reason to expect more of the same in this series.

The Jets allowed 11.47 high-danger chances per 60 minutes in the regular season, by far the worst mark among playoff teams, while generating only 9.25 per 60. That troublesome trend continued against Edmonton. The Oilers were middle of the road in both chance creation and prevention during the regular season - both areas Montreal had success in - and despite being swept by Winnipeg, they led the first round with a whopping 13.84 HDCF/60. The Jets not only allowed a lot of quality chances, they also struggled to generate much, posting a 39.39 HDCF% and 41.29 xGF% - both bottom-two marks in the first round.

Being out-chanced and out-possessed is hardly new to this Winnipeg team; it survives thanks to its high-end attack and elite goalie. The Jets' bounty of capable scorers up front helps them convert a higher rate of their chances, while defensively they lean into their best asset: Hellebuyck. They have an innate ability to withstand pressure and hit teams on the counter - it's why poorer underlying metrics aren't always indicative of their success. What they lack in quantity, they make up for in quality.

It was the formula the Jets used against the Canadiens this season, too. Despite being significantly out-chanced, they shot a terrific 10.16% at five-on-five, and an even more impressive 13.56% in their six wins over Montreal. Hellebuyck posted a .937 SV% in those victories, compared to .868 in the three losses. Despite Hellebuyck's excellence and Winnipeg's quality up front, marks of 13.56% and .937 shout regression. A locked in Price or any slips from Hellebuyck could prove catastrophic for the Jets.

Special teams will also prove crucial for Winnipeg. They were a driving force behind its success in Round 1, while Montreal struggled early against Toronto. The Canadiens were 0-for-14 through five games before breaking through with three power-play goals over the final two. They need to build off that momentum, as another anemic run could cripple their chances. It won't be easy against a Winnipeg team that held the Oilers' top-ranked power play to under 20% in the first round.

Montreal's penalty kill was excellent while its power play struggled. The Canadiens held the Leafs to only three goals on 23 opportunities, though Toronto's power play was miserable for some time in advance of the playoffs. The Jets are much more efficient and productive when up a man, ranking seventh during the regular season, and were a top-five unit in the league before going 2-for-22 without Ehlers over the final nine games of the season. They went 3-for-10 against an Edmonton penalty kill that ranked top 10 in the league this year, while Montreal's finished in the league's bottom half.

If the Habs can maintain respectable numbers on special teams, the series will be there for the taking thanks to their strong five-on-five play. Winnipeg's weak defensive corps was exposed in Round 1 - only the Blues and Capitals allowed more xGF/60 at five-on-five - and is set for an even tougher matchup against a deep Canadiens forward group.

Montreal runs four lines and forechecks aggressively, which will place added pressure on a weak Jets defense and force it into quicker decisions with the puck. That typically leads to turnovers, as we saw with Toronto's Travis Dermott and Rasmus Sandin.

Hellebuyck covered up the Jets' defensive deficiencies in Round 1 by saving a ridiculous 6.82 goals above expected - by far the highest mark of the playoffs despite the fact he's played only four games. His exploits are something the club's become accustomed to, but it leaves Winnipeg with a very small margin for error. Anything but excellence from their netminder and the Jets are in big trouble.

Price faces similar pressure in Montreal, but he doesn't have to be otherworldly in order for the club to be successful. Montreal's team defense is far superior to Winnipeg's - it's a much more sustainable model. The Jets allowed 60 high-danger chances in the first round compared to 59 allowed by the Canadiens, and Montreal played three more games. That's extreme pressure on a goalie, and sooner or later, whether it's in Round 2 or beyond, it'll catch up to Winnipeg eventually.

Pick: Canadiens (+115)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

Since the unveiling of the divisions and playoff format, this highly anticipated series felt almost inevitable.

The Minnesota Wild tried to throw a wrench into our plans, but the inescapable has been confirmed. The regular season's top two teams will meet for West Division supremacy in what might be the most enticing series of the entire playoffs.

1. Avalanche (-185) versus 2. Golden Knights (+165)

Overall

*Five-on-five

Head-to-head

*All strengths
**Game played at Lake Tahoe

The Avalanche absolutely destroyed the St. Louis Blues in their first-round series. Colorado made quick work of the 2019 Stanley Cup champions, trailing only once in the entire series for all of seven minutes in Game 4.

Colorado outscored its opponent 20-7, won every game by at least three goals, controlled 69% of the expected goal share, posted first-round bests in xGF/60 and xGA/60, converted 50% of its power-play opportunities, and featured 11 different goal-scorers. The top line combined for a ridiculous 24 points.

This series won't be as straightforward for the Avs, but such dominance shows just how good they really are. Their best players have a history of elevating their game in the playoffs and again seemed to find another gear in Round 1 following an already strong regular season - a scary proposition for the rest of the league.

When the puck drops in Game 1 on Sunday, the Avs will have been off for a full week, resting and recovering from a first-round series that closely resembled a training session, while the Golden Knights will be less than 48 hours removed from an incredibly demanding Game 7. They were pushed to the brink by the Wild in an emotionally and physically draining series, and now face the daunting task of having to face an Avalanche team that's exhausting to play against.

The Knights were first and the Wild were second in hits in Round 1, while the Avalanche and Blues were last and second-last, respectively. Furthermore, of the 423 minutes in the Vegas-Minnesota series, the games were tied or within a goal for a little over 318 (75%). Colorado's series was never close.

This is reminiscent of Tampa Bay Lightning-Boston Bruins in 2018. They finished a runaway first and second in the Atlantic, and a second-round showdown felt certain. Both teams got through the first round, but Boston was pushed to its limits by the Toronto Maple Leafs while Tampa breezed by the New Jersey Devils, and it resulted in the Lightning beating the Bruins comfortably in five games. Every situation is different, but any lapses in energy or intensity from Vegas are sure to be punished by a Colorado team that needs no invitation.

If the Knights are looking for something to hang their hats on ahead of this series, they can take solace in the fact they actually played better against the Avalanche this season than they did the Wild; Minnesota has historically given them trouble, so a first-round slugfest certainly wasn't a surprise.

The Knights were a respectable 4-4-0 against Colorado this season, though the Avalanche held the edge in xGF% and CF% at five-on-five and were 4-2-1 in Philipp Grubauer starts. Both regulation losses came as a result of Marc-Andre Fleury shutouts, with the first coming in their initial meeting of the season when the Avs were without Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, and Samuel Girard.

For Vegas to have success, Fleury will have to be excellent once again. He began the Minnesota series in terrific form but really lacked sharpness over the final three games. The Knights owned 61.5% of the expected goal share in Games 5 and 6 but lost both with Fleury saving 3.37 goals below expected. Those performances can't happen against this dynamic Colorado offense.

The one concerning bit for Vegas is the fact Colorado managed to edge the season series despite virtually no contributions from its lethal power play. The Avalanche went just 1-for-21 with the man advantage against the Knights, shooting 3.7%. That's a far cry from the 13.6% they shot on the power play this season, suggesting positive regression is in order.

However, Vegas did possess the league's best penalty kill this year - a vast improvement after finishing 27th (76.6%) last season. But power plays can be streaky, and Colorado's is scorching-hot right now after converting at a 50% clip in the first round.

Despite how close these teams were in the regular season, the Knights' margin for error feels razor-thin given the level the Avalanche are playing at right now. It's going to require a gutsy team effort, and they must tread a fine line between playing aggressive and staying disciplined. A heavy forecheck will be key against a group of top-three defensemen whose average size is 5'11, 183 pounds.

If Vegas can contain Colorado's power play and receive the sort of elite goaltending from Fleury they know he's capable of providing, this series can certainly go the distance. Still, even without Nazem Kadri - J.T. Compher is coming off a terrific season and has filled in excellently on the second line - the Avalanche have too much firepower atop the lineup, and depth down it.

Max Pacioretty helped alleviate Vegas' scoring issues in Game 7, but his health is a question mark after he missed the past four weeks and was limited to just 16:28 in his return. He'll have only one day off before this series starts, and it's hard to see the Knights keeping up without anything but a full contribution from their leading goal scorer. Even with him at full health, it's a tall order against the clear-cut Stanley Cup favorites.

Pick: Avalanche (-185)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

If there's one thing these playoffs have taught us, it's that hockey is alive and well in the south. The Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning were involved in two of the most entertaining first-round series and now go head to head for the Central Division crown in a matchup hardly lacking in star power.

Tampa is playing its best hockey when it matters most, but Carolina seems poised to make the jump to legitimate Cup contender. Do the Lightning need to #TakeWarning, or is it merely an empty threat from a Hurricanes team that floundered when the going got tough in each of the last two postseasons?

1. Hurricanes (+110) versus 3. Lightning (-130)

Overall

*Five-on-five

Head-to-head

*All strengths

It's hard to gauge just how much stock to put into the Lightning's regular-season stats or their eight head-to-head meetings with the Hurricanes, because Nikita Kucherov didn't play at all. On the other side, Teuvo Teravainen also missed all eight for Carolina, which at least slightly mitigates Kucherov's absence.

Carolina should be worried about how good Kucherov looked in the first round - he recorded three goals and eight assists for a league-leading 11 points. He made massive contributions on the power play right away in Game 1, though there was also an element of rust as he posted an expected goals percentage of just 44 through the first three contests. He got his legs under him for the second half of the series, pushing that number to 73% in the final three games. A fresh and in-form Kucherov spells danger for the Hurricanes.

His offensive exploits were obviously a driving force behind Tampa's success in Round 1, with seven of his 11 points coming on the power play. The Lightning relied heavily on the man advantage against the Florida Panthers, scoring an absurd eight goals on 20 opportunities (40%). However, it's unlikely they replicate that sort of success against the Hurricanes.

The penalty kill was the Achilles' heel for the Panthers this season, and it was a definite strength for the Hurricanes. Carolina finished third during the regular season with a terrific 85.2% success rate and upped that number to 88.5% in Round 1, killing 23 of the 26 Nashville Predators power plays. Special teams is an overall strong suit of this Hurricanes team, which also ranked second on the power play during the regular season and could be a real difference-maker in this series against a Tampa penalty kill that was significantly underwhelming - 72.7% - in the first round.

Also aiding the Lightning's red-hot power play was Florida's miserable goaltending situation. Sergei Bobrovsky remained a problem and Chris Driedger turned into a pumpkin. Here's how the pair ranked in GSAA and GSAx among the 20 goalies to suit up in the first round:

Goaltending is a strength for the Hurricanes, who match up incredibly well with the Lightning thanks to Alex Nedeljkovic and Petr Mrazek. It's Nedeljkovic's crease to lose, and he got the better of Andrei Vasilevskiy in the regular season. In three starts against Tampa, he saved 4.82 goals above expected, stopping 75 of 78 shots.

It wasn't just against the Lightning that Nedeljkovic excelled, either, as he ranked fifth in GSAA and third in GSAx this season. Vasilevskiy ranked third and fourth, respectively, but also played nearly double the number of games. When you average it out, Nedeljkovic posted considerably better marks in both GSAA/60 and GSAx/60. Goaltending is a key in the playoffs, and Tampa's perceived edge in this series might not actually be an edge at all.

Nedeljkovic was solid in Round 1, but this is a step up in class against a Lightning team with elite scoring and high-end talent. Tampa doesn't necessarily generate a ton of chances but scores a lot given its quality up front. The same can be said of the Hurricanes, though, who feature elite offensive talent backed by quality depth.

Carolina is the better of the two teams at driving play. The Hurricanes were among the league leaders in xGF%, CF%, and HDCF% in the regular season, and they didn't miss a beat in the first round, managing 55.01% of the expected goal share. Tampa's numbers paled in comparison, as it posted a 45.4% mark in six games against the Panthers, but the quality of opponent certainly has to be taken into consideration.

The Hurricanes need to improve when it comes to chance conversion. They ranked 28th in five-on-five shooting percentage this season at 7.21, and that number actually dropped to 6.74 in the first round. Juuse Saros was a big part of that, but Vasilevskiy can be just as stingy.

With everyone in the lineup and a series under their belt, the Lightning have to be considered the slight favorites here, but not to the extent the line suggests. Home ice is massive for the Hurricanes, who were 20-3-5 at PNC Arena in the regular season - including 3-1 against Tampa - and a perfect 3-0 in Round 1. Even shy of full capacity, the building was deafening against the Predators, and being able to control the matchups against the Lightning's elite playmakers is massive for Rod Brind'Amour.

This series will showcase some of the best the league has to offer, and though the defending champions look the part once again, there's a clear path to success for Carolina in this series. If the Hurricanes can take fewer penalties, remain efficient on special teams, and not lose the goaltending matchup, they will reach the Stanley Cup semifinals for the second time in three years.

Pick: Hurricanes (+110)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.

A pair of defensive juggernauts are set to clash in an East Division final that - on the surface at least - shapes up to be a tense affair.

But the Bruins have been scorching hot since a flurry of deadline acquisitions, easily disposing of a strong Capitals team in Round 1. The Islanders, meanwhile, have been trending in the wrong direction and were gifted a first-round victory thanks to Tristan Jarry's incompetence.

Will upsetting the Penguins be the spark New York needs to get back on track? Or will the Bruins prove too much to handle, as they have for nearly all of their opponents over the past six weeks?

3. Bruins (-240) vs. 4. Islanders (+200)

Overall

*five-on-five

Head-to-head

*all strengths

Despite being the league's hottest team over the final month of the regular season, the Bruins (+1000) entered the playoffs with just the sixth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup. After a first-round demolition of Washington, those odds have been slashed by more than half, and only the Avalanche (+240) are now priced shorter than Boston (+450) to win it all.

Up next for Boston is an Islanders team that will be aiming to replicate its regular-season success against the Bruins in hopes of making a second successive trip to the Stanley Cup semifinals. New York's 5-2-1 head-to-head edge during the regular season is a bit misleading, though.

The Bruins improved drastically over the final month of the campaign after a trio of deadline acquisitions. They led the NHL with a 63.09 expected goals for percentage at five-on-five with Taylor Hall in the lineup, going 11-3-1 in those games. They faced the Islanders three times over that span, winning all three contests while owning a 69.49% share of the expected goals. And New York was hardly dominant in winning the first five meetings. The underlying metrics were relatively even in those games, with goaltending proving key to the Islanders' success.

To win this series, goaltending will once again be pivotal for New York, as it was in Round 1. The Penguins were largely the better team in their series against the Islanders, who owned just a 46.33 expected goals for percentage at five-on-five but capitalized on an absolute horror show from Jarry. The netminder was directly to blame for three of Pittsburgh's losses and was miserable throughout, posting minus-6.44 goals saved above average and minus-6.72 goals saved above expected. Both marks were by far the worst among goaltenders this postseason. New York's Ilya Sorokin was third with 3.07 goals saved above average.

The Islanders will need something similar to unfold to have a chance against Boston. The Bruins are better than the Penguins at both five-on-five and on special teams, and they just manhandled a very good Capitals team while owning 59.27% of the series' expected goal share at five-on-five. Boston limited Washington's high-powered offense to just 1.76 expected goals for per 60 minutes, and it generated 48 high-danger chances across five games compared to the Capitals' 30.

The Bruins' power play and penalty kill both consistently rank among the league's best, and this season was no exception. Boston was especially efficient on the penalty kill, setting up what should have been an epic first-round battle against a lethal Capitals power play. But it wasn't a close contest, as the Bruins held Washington's third-ranked power-play unit to just three goals on 21 opportunities. Boston will now look to shut down an Islanders power play that ranked 21st in the regular season and went 3-for-18 against the Penguins' 26th-ranked penalty kill in Round 1.

New York will have to withstand a lot of pressure in this series, staying patient - a defining trait of Barry Trotz's teams - and disciplined against a Boston squad likely to control possession. The Bruins should have no issue generating offense at five-on-five and can be trusted to win the battle on special teams, as well. It's hard to see New York charting a path to Round 3 without Sorokin significantly outplaying Tuukka Rask, who isn't quite the goalie he once was. Boston's quality should ultimately prove too much for an Islanders team that simply hasn't played good hockey over the past two months.

Pick: Bruins (-240)

Alex Moretto is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

Copyright © 2021 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.