NHL Thursday best bets: Maple Leafs to rebound vs. Panthers

Wednesday was a tough one on the ice. Jack Hughes and Brent Burns combined to miss the net seven times, both failing to go over their shot prop totals. The Oilers also fell at the hands of the Golden Knights despite a four-goal performance from Leon Draisaitl.

We'll aim to get back on track with three more plays for Thursday's card.

Panthers (+160) @ Maple Leafs (-190)

The Maple Leafs once again dropped their series opener at home by multiple goals.

They had no problem crawling out of the early hole against the Lightning and I expect similar against the Panthers.

Everything was there but the finish in Game 1. The Maple Leafs won the expected goals battle 5.21-2.66, good for a 66.23% share - their second-highest of the playoffs.

Their best players piled up the chances as well. The core four of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander combined for 20 shots on goal and 11 grade-A scoring chances. They simply couldn't convert, translating those opportunities into zero goals.

That is very abnormal for them. Each player scored 30-plus goals and scored on at least 12.2% of their shots in the regular season. They are lethal finishers.

So long as the chances are there, the goals will come, especially against a netminder like Sergei Bobrovsky.

While you have to tip your hat to him for a great Game 1 performance, he is a very exploitable goaltender. He posted a pedestrian .901 save percentage in the regular season and his playoff total matches that. There is a reason the Panthers went to unproven journeyman Alex Lyon for chunks of the opening round series; Bobrovsky is simply not reliable.

He helped steal a game, but that is an exception to the rule, and the Maple Leafs showed they can generate chances in bulk. I would expect them to start going in sooner rather than later.

Look for Toronto to even the series without the aid of overtime.

Bet: Maple Leafs in regulation (-110)

Auston Matthews over 4.5 shots (-135)

We backed Matthews in the series opener and he rewarded us with a six-shot, 11-attempt performance against the Panthers. There's no reason not to go back to the well in Game 2.

Matthews has attempted at least eight shots in five consecutive games, combining for 20 over the last two in Toronto. He is shooting every chance he gets right now and the goals have been there in bunches as a result.

Including special-teams play, Matthews was on the ice for 34 attempts and 20 shots on goal last time out. That led all forwards for either team.

It's no secret that getting him the puck in shooting situations is priority No. 1. The Panthers are a better offensive than defensive team and they tend to play high-event games. That bodes well for Matthews, who should try to shoot the Maple Leafs onto level terms.

Roope Hintz over 2.5 shots (-105)

The Kraken have mostly played well defensively through eight postseason games. Their one area of weakness is slowing down opposing centers.

They had a very tough time with Nathan MacKinnon in the opening round - granted, anybody would - and that's spilled over into their series against the Stars.

Roope Hintz had a very strong offensive showing in Game 1, registering seven shot attempts, five shots on goal, and four high-danger scoring chances. Outside of Joe Pavelski, nobody did a better job of creating quality opportunities.

Hintz has enjoyed success against the Kraken all year, recording three shots or more in three of four meetings. With only the Panthers allowing more shots per game to centers in these playoffs, Hintz should have ample opportunity to get the job done once again.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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