The NHL regular season's final weeks are not to be trusted.

For bad teams, it's one thing to think about a club relative to its draft position in February or March. Still, it's another thing when losing the final few games guarantees as many draft lottery balls as possible. Management often decrees that certain goaltenders start and lesser players get more ice time in the name of "giving opportunities to the young guys." Why not just bet against the bad teams, then? Well, those young players aren't trying to look bad and are giving everything they have to get noticed. Plus, the market will lean to the favorite even more, so the only play is to back the inferior squad, which isn't a particularly fun way to finish your campaign either.

For mediocre teams, it's one thing to think about a club relative to its playoff position and the concept of a must-win game. However, it's another thing to pay the tax oddsmakers charge on backing a club sitting on the playoff bubble just because it has more theoretical motivation. The reality is pressure can only cause problems. Once players are on the ice, they aren't thinking about the standings when they make the snap decision about where to shoot, pinch, or dive to block a shot.

For good teams, it's one thing to assume that a club doesn't necessarily have the motivation to win to secure a playoff seed. But it's another thing to fade a squad like the Bruins even after they sit their stars for rest purposes. A good team is more than just a few players; It's a collective - culture, coaching, and player development. On the flip side, you're not likely to get a deal on Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay, or any other club with its playoffs seeding set.

Thoroughly confused? That's what happens in the final weeks of the NHL, NFL, NBA, and MLB seasons. It comes with the territory. These will be the final moneyline projections of the regular season since the best bet for the first full week of April is to take time to regroup and not give back the profits made value-betting during this long NHL season.

The recipe

We started the campaign using the regular-season point total market as a baseline for rating teams since it's our best preseason measurement. Throughout the season, we adjust club ratings using on-ice metrics to remove the cognitive bias of win-loss records, which outliers like special-teams results, poor goaltending performances, and other unreliable events can skew. Our priors have almost entirely been flushed out this late in the campaign, and this season's metrics remain.

The cheat sheet

There are no bad bets at the right price, but how do we know what a good price is?

The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I'd need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel. When it comes to injured players, I do my best to estimate the impact on their team's win probability.

When the betting markets open up the night before, you can compare those prices with our "price to bet" column to see if you're getting any value with either side's moneyline. There's also a possibility that a moneyline moves into a bet-friendly range at some point between market open and puck drop.

Matt Russell is the senior betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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