"Just when I think I'm out, they pull me back in," Michael Corleone said in "The Godfather Part III."

The famous quote reflects how value-based NHL bettors must feel about a handful of teams that seem ready to lose interest but score a surprising win every once in a while as they play out the string.

After a rough stretch for underdogs last week, this past weekend saw them bark back. Few would have much interest in backing the Canadiens (+260) at the Lightning on Saturday night or the Coyotes (+170), Flyers (+240), and Kraken (+135) on Sunday.

It just goes to show that you can't give up on a cohort of teams that had a rough March. The Coyotes had a six-game losing streak last month but still managed profitability, keeping this group near even on your betting ledger.

Betting on the four worst teams in the league would have resulted in a 22-34 record on the moneyline but just a marginal loss. Four days into April, this collective is 4-4 with a net profit of 4.25 units to the positive. Whether you're actually on the team or merely betting on the team, there's nothing fun about losing. But like a high-end Zamboni, the moneyline odds are there to smooth out the playing surface.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Wednesday, April 6

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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