A philosophical question to ponder before your hockey betting this weekend: If every game goes to overtime, should anyone be a favorite or an underdog?

We may hyperbolize about every contest needing complimentary hockey to find a winner, but three more valuable underdogs sat drawn with their opponent at the end of regulation Wednesday. Unfortunately, all of them lost in overtime or the shootout.

The short-term variance of 3-on-3 and the breakaway competition is supposed to benefit a bettor getting a plus-money price. However, as it occasionally can, the sample size has bit our guide's valuable side nine straight times - a fact that sounds like a cruel April Fools' Day prank.

The Sabres themselves have lost three games in extra time in the last week alone, only broken up by their amazing comeback win over the Blackhawks. Does that mean Buffalo shouldn't be a bet at an average price of better than +180? Of course not. The fact that the Sabres continuously play in games that could go either way proves they are a valuable bet at such a good payout - even if the result is sub-optimal for a young team that has refused to lay down late in the season.

It's never easy to chalk things up to variance - a fancier term for luck. However, studies have shown that there's very little correlation between a team's record in regulation and its record in 3-on-3 overtime and the shootout. The best bettors can do is continue to put themselves in position to win over the long-term, and getting plus-money bets into overtime is one way to do that.

The recipe

Before the 2021-22 campaign, we devised a three-part series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and then how to use those to create your own moneylines.

This season's on-ice predictive metrics make up 80% of our total rating. Basing 20% of the ratings on preseason "priors" allows us to emphasize team metrics without going all-in on what's happened during this campaign, which is still a relatively small sample size that includes some tainted results from when COVID-19 ravaged lineups.

I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a side playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and 3% without travel.

How to use the guide

What follows is my fair price on the matchups (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet each side. I just need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the team more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. You can establish your own threshold - you may decide on a higher cutoff for bigger underdogs, like 6%-7%. On games I've projected could be a near coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough to make a wager worthwhile.

Friday, April 1

Compare the "Price to Bet" column with the prices the market offered. From there, compile a list of bets. The only reason not to make a bet is if something is unaccounted for in our team ratings - like a star player being a surprise scratch - or if you've put a team on the "Do Not Bet" list.

After you make your bets, come back before puck drop on game night to see if line moves have created a valuable bet that wasn't there before. At that point, compare the price of your opening bet to its late price to see how much closing-line value you may be getting.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.

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