The NHL was originally supposed to take two weeks off for the Olympics at the start of February, but the league derailed those plans. Instead of Beijing, the sport's top players will head to Las Vegas during the weekend of February 4-6.
As a result, we've got an extended edition of the weekly moneyline betting guide. The natural break - and the NHL's announcement about pulling back on the COVID-19 testing afterward - can give us a better idea of who's going to be in the lineup each night, and that will be a welcome change in a season that has frustrated bettors looking for roster certainty.
The recipe
Before the campaign, we provided a three-chapter series on how to use the regular-season point-total market to create team ratings, how to interpret home-ice advantage, and how to use that information to create your own moneylines.
Five weeks ago, we shared my 2021-22 campaign ratings, which use the metrics I deem important to predict future success. Considering all the lineup inconsistency across the league, I'll continue to rely on a 50-50 split between those ratings and the preseason priors via the regular-season point-total markets. This provides a more consistent base for assessing teams in the future rather than allowing mismatches generated by COVID-19 to pollute the numbers.
The cheat sheet
The following includes my fair price on the games (true moneyline) and the moneyline price I would need to bet either side. I only need a 1% edge for a favorite if we're getting better than a fair price on the club more likely to win. For the underdog, I'll need 4% or better to make it a bet. For games I project to be closer to a coin flip, a 2.5% edge is enough for a worthwhile wager. I also have a 5% win probability consideration for a team playing in the second game of a back-to-back with travel and a 3% consideration for a side on the second leg of a back-to-back without travel.
| DATE | GAME | TRUE ML | PRICE TO BET |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan. 24 | VGK@WSH | -105/+105 | VGK +106/WSH +116 |
| LAK@NYR | +139/-139 | LAK +164/NYR -133 | |
| DAL@PHI | -101/+101 | DAL +109/PHI +112 | |
| ANA@BOS | +206/-206 | ANA +248/BOS -197 | |
| MTL@MIN | +166/-166 | MTL +198/MIN -159 | |
| STL@CGY | +144/-144 | STL +170/CGY -138 | |
| CHI@COL | +171/-171 | CHI +204/COL -164 | |
| Jan. 25 | BUF@OTT | +143/-143 | BUF +169/OTT -137 |
| ARI@PIT | +206/-206 | ARI +249/PIT -197 | |
| DAL@NJD | +136/-136 | DAL +160/NJD -130 | |
| VGK@CAR | +122/-122 | VGK +143/CAR -117 | |
| PHI@NYI | +160/-160 | PHI +191/NYI -154 | |
| FLA@WPG | -119/+119 | FLA -114/WPG +140 | |
| NSH@SEA | -101/+101 | NSH +109/SEA +112 | |
| EDM@VAN | -105/+105 | EDM +105/VAN +116 | |
| Jan. 26 | SJS@WSH | +140/-140 | SJS +165/WSH -134 |
| ANA@TOR | +198/-198 | ANA +238/TOR -189 | |
| CGY@CBJ | -116/+116 | CGY -112/CBJ +137 | |
| CHI@DET | +103/-103 | CHI +114/DET +107 | |
| BOS@COL | +127/-127 | BOS +149/COL -122 | |
| Jan. 27 | NJD@TBL | +163/-163 | NJD +194/TBL -156 |
| NYR@CBJ | -107/+107 | NYR +103/CBJ +119 | |
| CAR@OTT | -124/+124 | CAR -119/OTT +146 | |
| LAK@NYI | +125/-125 | LAK +148/NYI -120 | |
| SEA@PIT | +143/-143 | SEA +169/PIT -137 | |
| VGK@FLA | +120/-120 | VGK +141/FLA -115 | |
| ANA@MTL | +143/-143 | ANA +169/MTL -137 | |
| CGY@STL | +133/-133 | CGY +157/STL -127 | |
| VAN@WPG | +122/-122 | VAN +144/WPG -117 | |
| NSH@EDM | +133/-133 | NSH +157/EDM -128 | |
| Jan. 28 | MIN@NYR | -134/+134 | MIN -129/NYR +158 |
| DET@PIT | +183/-183 | DET +219/PIT -175 | |
| COL@CHI | -142/+142 | COL -136/CHI +168 | |
| BOS@ARI | -167/+167 | BOS -160/ARI +199 | |
| WSH@DAL | +102/-102 | WSH +113/DAL +108 | |
| Jan. 29 | ANA@OTT | +122/-122 | ANA +143/OTT -117 |
| LAK@PHI | +108/-108 | LAK +119/PHI +102 | |
| SEA@NYI | +131/-131 | SEA +154/NYI -126 | |
| WPG@STL | +115/-115 | WPG +136/STL -111 | |
| SJS@FLA | +177/-177 | SJS +212/FLA -170 | |
| TOR@DET | -140/+140 | TOR -134/DET +165 | |
| VGK@TBL | +126/-126 | VGK +149/TBL -121 | |
| NJD@CAR | +127/-127 | NJD +150/CAR -122 | |
| EDM@MTL | -145/+145 | EDM -139/MTL +172 | |
| BUF@ARI | +108/-108 | BUF +119/ARI +103 | |
| VAN@CGY | +123/-123 | VAN +145/CGY -118 | |
| Jan. 30 | SEA@NYR | +145/-145 | SEA +171/NYR -139 |
| LAK@PIT | +169/-169 | LAK +202/PIT -162 | |
| SJS@CAR | +134/-134 | SJS +158/CAR -129 | |
| BOS@DAL | +100/+100 | BOS +111/DAL +110 | |
| CHI@STL | +117/-117 | CHI +138/STL -112 | |
| CBJ@MTL | -104/+104 | CBJ +107/MTL +114 | |
| MIN@NYI | -116/+116 | MIN -112/NYI +137 | |
| BUF@COL | +342/-342 | BUF +437/COL -323 | |
| Jan. 31 | FLA@CBJ | -184/+184 | FLA -176/CBJ +220 |
| ANA@DET | +128/-128 | ANA +151/DET -123 | |
| VAN@CHI | +134/-134 | VAN +158/CHI -128 | |
| EDM@OTT | -139/+139 | EDM -133/OTT +164 | |
| Feb. 1 | WSH@PIT | +109/-109 | WSH +121/PIT +101 |
| WPG@PHI | +103/-103 | WPG +114/PHI +107 | |
| SJS@TBL | +188/-188 | SJS +225/TBL -179 | |
| TOR@NJD | -113/+113 | TOR -108/NJD +133 | |
| SEA@BOS | +162/-162 | SEA +193/BOS -155 | |
| STL@MTL | -114/+114 | STL -109/MTL +134 | |
| FLA@NYR | -115/+115 | FLA -111/NYR +136 | |
| OTT@NYI | +182/-182 | OTT +217/NYI -174 | |
| VAN@NSH | +143/-143 | VAN +169/NSH -137 | |
| CGY@DAL | +115/-115 | CGY +135/DAL -110 | |
| ARI@COL | +251/-251 | ARI +308/COL -239 | |
| BUF@VGK | +255/-255 | BUF +313/VGK -243 | |
| Feb. 2 | EDM@WSH | -127/+127 | EDM -122/WSH +149 |
| LAK@DET | -102/+102 | LAK +109/DET +112 | |
| MIN@CHI | -126/+126 | MIN -121/CHI +149 | |
| CGY@ARI | -118/+118 | CGY -114/ARI +139 |
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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