Alex Ovechkin has won the Rocket Richard seven times over the last nine seasons, with the shortened 2021 campaign serving as one of the lone exceptions.
Is there value in backing Ovechkin to reclaim his throne, or has his time passed?
We'll examine that and more as we dive into our best bets.
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | +350 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +700 |
| Connor McDavid | +750 |
| Alex Ovechkin | +1000 |
| David Pastrnak | +1200 |
| Alex DeBrincat | +1700 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +1700 |
| Kyle Connor | +1700 |
| Mika Zibanejad | +1700 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +1700 |
| Brayden Point | +2000 |
| Mikko Rantanen | +2000 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +2000 |
| Sebastian Aho | +2000 |
| Aleksander Barkov | +2500 |
| Brad Marchand | +2500 |
| Jake Guentzel | +2500 |
| Max Pacioretty | +2500 |
| Patrick Kane | +2500 |
| Nikolaj Ehlers | +3000 |
| Steven Stamkos | +3000 |
| Artemi Panarin | +3500 |
| Bryan Rust | +3500 |
| Elias Pettersson | +3500 |
| Mark Scheifele | +3500 |
| Patrice Bergeron | +3500 |
| Sam Reinhart | +3500 |
| Elias Lindholm | +4000 |
| Gabriel Landeskog | +4000 |
| John Tavares | +4000 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | +4000 |
| Mark Stone | +4000 |
| Sidney Crosby | +4000 |
Only displaying players with odds 40-1 or shorter
Auston Matthews (+350)
Matthews is the NHL's best goalscorer. He leads all players in tallies over the last three seasons and has netted 18 more than anybody at five-on-five since 2019.
Goals count the same regardless of game state, of course, but it's important not to be one-dimensional. Matthews doesn't rely on power-play opportunities as heavily as others. He can score consistently without them, or when things aren't clicking on the man advantage. That helps separate Matthews from everyone else. And if Toronto's power play, which ranked 15th in goals per minute last season, gets better, it'll only raise Matthews' already high ceiling.
His wrist shouldn't be a problem following offseason surgery, and we should expect a motivated Matthews after another excruciating playoff disappointment.
Alex Ovechkin (+1000)
I realize Ovechkin is getting up there in age and is no longer in his prime, but this line feels disrespectful to arguably the best goalscorer we've ever seen.
The guy is 36, and yet only Matthews has scored more goals per game over the last two seasons. That's right: just one player was more efficient on a per-game basis than Ovi, while nobody generated more shot attempts.
Despite his absurd track record of scoring goals, and his unrivaled shot volume, the odds imply Ovechkin has a 9% chance of leading the league in tallies. That feels very low, especially considering he's chasing Wayne Gretzky's scoring record. Ovechkin will be pushing for each and every tuck he can get.
Sebastian Aho (+2000)
If you want to go value hunting and back a bit of a wild card, Aho may be your guy.
He's not necessarily someone you think of as an elite sniper, but he has the numbers to back it up. Only seven players have scored more times over the last two seasons.
It's no coincidence that Aho has ranked so high. In fact, he was unlucky not to finish higher. Aho generated more expected goals than all but three players (Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, and Brady Tkachuk) during that time. Yes, he even finished ahead of Ovechkin.
Goals usually come to those who are best at generating chances, and very few have matched Aho in that regard. If you think the best is still to come for the 24-year-old, there's value in backing him here.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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