If you're going to bet on one position group in hockey while hoping for predictable consistency, it would be literally any other market than goaltenders. There hasn't been a back-to-back Vezina winner since Martin Brodeur, who turns 50 next year.
To make things harder to predict, there are just 32 voters. They're the NHL's general managers, who spend the whole season worrying about their own teams and then are asked to pick the league's top goalie.
Here's how the oddsboard shapes up prior to the 2021-22 season:
(Only players with 40-1 odds or shorter are listed)
| Goalie | Odds |
|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | +380 |
| Connor Hellebuyck | +900 |
| Darcy Kuemper | +1000 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | +1000 |
| Carey Price | +1400 |
| Philipp Grubauer | +1500 |
| Robin Lehner | +1600 |
| Semyon Varlamov | +1700 |
| Thatcher Demko | +1700 |
| Frederik Andersen | +1800 |
| Petr Mrazek | +1800 |
| Igor Shesterkin | +2100 |
| Jeremy Swayman | +2200 |
| Spencer Knight | +2200 |
| Jordan Binnington | +2300 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | +2400 |
| Jack Campbell | +2400 |
| Juuse Saros | +2400 |
| Chris Driedger | +2500 |
| Ilya Sorokin | +2500 |
| Ilya Samsonov | +2600 |
| Cam Talbot | +3200 |
| Carter Hart | +3200 |
| Anton Khudobin | +3300 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky | +3300 |
| Ben Bishop | +3400 |
| Linus Ullmark | +3400 |
| John Gibson | +3500 |
| Calvin Peterson | +3800 |
| Tuukka Rask | +3800 |
| Elvis Merzlikins | +4000 |
| Jacob Markstrom | +4000 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | +4000 |
Who usually wins?
Let's take a look back to 2008 at the age of the goalie when they won, their team's point percentage that season, and their goals saved above average (GSAA) the year prior to winning.
| Year | Winner | Age | Team's point % | Previous year GSAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 36 | 73.2 | -6.50 |
| 2020 | Connor Hellebuyck | 26 | 56.3 | 5.86 |
| 2019 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 24 | 78.0 | 15.12 |
| 2018 | Pekka Rinne | 35 | 71.3 | 8.05 |
| 2017 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 28 | 65.8 | -7.69 |
| 2016 | Braden Holtby | 26 | 73.2 | 17.46 |
| 2015 | Carey Price | 31 | 67.1 | 23.51 |
| 2014 | Tuukka Rask | 26 | 71.3 | 16.32 |
| 2013 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 24 | 57.3 | -11.51 |
| 2012 | Henrik Lundqvist | 29 | 66.5 | 19.18 |
| 2011 | Tim Thomas | 36 | 62.8 | 4.34 |
| 2010 | Ryan Miller | 29 | 60.9 | 17.25 |
| 2009 | Tim Thomas | 34 | 70.7 | 21.25 |
| 2008 | Martin Brodeur | 35 | 60.4 | 35.76 |
Marc-Andre Fleury's win last year - in addition to Thomas and Brodeur taking the honor - pull the average age for a winner up. But the key takeaway is there have been both young and old winners.
Connor Hellebuyck is the outlier as far as team performance goes. Every other goaltender listed played for a club that finished with a points percentage above 60% and was at least a 99-point team.
Lastly, a netminder doesn't need to play well the season prior. There are a few negative GSAA seasons listed, and a few more single-digit ones.
Which is why the Vezina Trophy market is difficult to predict. Still, here are three netminders worth backing this season:
Robin Lehner +1600
Lehner is a physical monster who turned 30 this summer, and he's got the net to himself for the first time in his career. He's also starting for a Stanley Cup contender, and the Golden Knights' defensive infrastructure factored into Fleury's Vezina-winning season.
Vegas gave Lehner a vote of confidence while shipping Fleury to Chicago. The team no doubt hopes he can return to his pre-pandemic form when the Swede claimed the starting job with the league's seventh-best GSAA.
Thatcher Demko +1700
Demko has also been handed sole possession of the crease. The Canucks' absurd move to make him split time with Braden Holtby last year never made sense. While the season was a complete disaster on many levels for Vancouver, Demko followed his epic playoff run in the bubble with the eighth-best GSAA.
Now he should receive close to 60 starts, and the Canucks might be able to reach the 99-point threshold if they get everyone signed and healthy for the first time since last summer. Demko would get a ton of credit if the team reaches that mark, especially after stealing playoff games in 2020 to initially get on NHL radars.
Juuse Saros +2400
While last year's stats aren't nearly the perfect predictor, the 26-year-old Nashville Predator was the league's best goaltender starting in mid-February.
Like the aforementioned two goalies, there was a veteran (Pekka Rinne) stealing starts from Saros. Following a rough three-game stretch during the first week of February - in which he allowed 15 goals over three games - Saros went on a ridiculous run, posting a .940 save percentage and a 1.90 goals-against average over the rest of the season.
Saros single-handedly dragged the Predators into the playoffs, and then he finished among the top five in Vezina voting. Now he'll get a chance to do it again for a full season with Rinne retired.
If he does, Saros will win the award this time around.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
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