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Some things just weren't meant to be on Saturday. The Blue Jackets fell short, and the Knights allowed a meaningless late goal, failing to cover the -1.5 spread. An 0-2 night ends our two-day perfection streak.
We're now 6-4-1 overall in Round 1, but I love these two Sunday bets. Let's get back to our 2-0 days, yeah?
Dallas Stars (-120) @ Calgary Flames (+100)
The Stars face a pivotal Game 4 and only have themselves to blame, trailing 2-1 in the series. They had countless chances to open the scoring in Game 3 - and even pull ahead for that matter - but couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Tyler Seguin hit the crossbar twice, Alexander Radulov missed a wide-open goal, and John Klingberg couldn't hit the net on a huge chance in the second.
Cam Talbot was excellent when the Flames needed him, but the series' first two games proved that his performance is too inconsistent. He can be erratic and easily-shaken as a goalie, but once he gets settled, he'll be tough to beat.
The bottom line is there's been plenty to like about Dallas' play in this series, especially in Game 3's losing effort. The Stars had 37 scoring chances to Calgary's 13 on Friday, and they controlled 66.91% of the expected goals share at five-on-five (2.11 to 1.04).
It's been a common theme throughout this series, and over the course of seven games, these things have a way of correcting themselves. The Stars may be trailing right now, but don't expect that to last very long.
Pick: Stars (-120)
Philadelphia Flyers (-145) @ Montreal Canadiens (+125)
I was in on the Canadiens and the over in Game 2, and while we hit with the underdog pick, we had to settle for a push on the over in a 5-0 Montreal win. There wasn't a single offensive contribution from the Flyers, but that's not something that will happen very often, and it's the reason I'm going back to the well here.
Expect a spirited response from the Flyers on Sunday with or without leading scorer Travis Konecny, who was helped into the dressing room after blocking a shot in Game 2. Philadelphia was out-worked and out-played but still generated an expected goals for mark of 3.23 on Friday, and will hopefully do its part to contribute to the over in Game 3.
Defensively, the Flyers are showing an inability to cope with Montreal's speed and aggressiveness on the forecheck, so they'll have to start generating some offense. The Canadiens have what seems to be a bottomless pit of energy on the attack, posting 5.19 expected goals for at even - and 6.14 at all strengths - in this series.
The emergence of youngsters Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki gives the Habs excellent depth at forward, while Jonathan Drouin and Max Domi appeared to get on track offensively in Game 2. Montreal will continue to find the back of the net here, and with Philadelphia doing its part as well, this game will comfortably surpass five goals.
Pick: Over 5 (-130)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.
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