Petr Mrazek has been arguably the league's best goaltender over the last two weeks. Strangely, that's not ideal for the Detroit Red Wings.
Detroit's reportedly already made it known that the club will be a seller ahead of the Feb. 26 trade deadline. For the first time in years, the Red Wings look to be in the process of stockpiling young assets and draft picks, and should be in line to select a top-level prospect in June.
There is just one problem with this plan: Mrazek is playing some fantastic hockey.
Since Jan. 14, Mrazek has gone 4-0-1 with a 1.02 goals-against average, a .967 save percentage, and two shutouts. If he keeps this up, he could realistically play the club out of a potential top-10 pick in this year's draft.
That's why the Red Wings should take a cue from Tim Murray and the 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres - who endured a similar situation - and work the phones to deal Mrazek.
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Some might recall that the 2015 draft was headlined by a guy named Connor McDavid. Teams were salivating at the possibility of selecting the league's next generational talent, and none more so than the Sabres.
That season, Buffalo got off to another horrid start after finishing the previous season with the NHL's worst record, falling 18 points behind the league-leading Montreal Canadiens by Dec. 1. It started to become evident that the Sabres had a far greater chance to finish with the best lottery odds than to secure a playoff spot.
A couple of months later, with the club last in the standings, two things started to jeopardize that status: Jhonas Enroth and Michal Neuvirth.
(Photo courtesy: Getty Images)
From Jan. 29 to Feb. 10, Enroth put together a stretch of 2-3-0 - which isn't great - while rocking a .931 save percentage and a 2.22 goals-against average. That was too good for a team trying to tank. So, on Feb. 11, the Sabres dealt Enroth to the Dallas Stars.
With Enroth out of the picture, the net belonged to Neuvirth, but the problem recurred. Neuvirth went 3-2-2 from Feb. 15 to Feb. 28, constructing a record of 3-2-2 with a .941 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average.
That earned Neuvirth a ticket to Long Island - Buffalo dealt him to the New York Islanders on Mar. 2. Ultimately, the Sabres did secure the best lottery odds, but we all know how that turned out.
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Ken Holland and Co. should consider this sell-off strategy with Mrazek.
The Red Wings currently sit 24th in the standings, giving them a 5.8 percent chance of winning the draft lottery and the right to pick Swedish defenseman Rasmus Dahlin.
However, he's not the only quality prospect expected to go within the first 10 selections. Players including Andrei Svechnikov, Adam Boqvist, Filip Zadina, Quinn Hughes, and Brady Tkachuk have all piqued the interest of scouts and should intrigue general managers as well.
Related: NHL releases midseason scouting rankings for 2018 draft
That's why things are looking dicey for the Red Wings. The club is just six points back of the Philadelphia Flyers for the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, and currently has the eighth-best chance of winning the draft lottery. It's not out of the realm of possibility that an extended hot streak could vault Detroit up the standings and entirely out of contention for a top-10 pick.
Of course, finishing in the basement doesn't guarantee anything. Last season, the New Jersey Devils won the right to select Nico Hischier first overall after finishing with the fourth-worst record; the Flyers jumped up to second after finishing with 40 more points than the last-placed Colorado Avalanche; and the Dallas Stars rounded out the top three after finishing 24th overall. Meanwhile, those 2015 Sabres had to settle for Jack Eichel instead of McDavid.
But if the Red Wings want to give themselves the best possible chance at nabbing a top-10 selection, dealing Mrazek should be their first move.
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