Alternate reality: What would the Oilers look like if Chiarelli was never hired?

In the midst of the Edmonton Oilers' horrible 2017-18 season, one can't help but wonder what the team would look like if general manager Peter Chiarelli never went through with some of his questionable decisions. To take this exercise to a whole other level: What would the Oilers look like if Chiarelli was never hired in the first place?

Here are a list of ground rules to make these projections fair, rather than picking and choosing the good and bad moves he's made:

  • Any player Chiarelli acquired via trade, free agency, or waivers will not be included
  • Draft picks made during the Chiarelli era will still be included
  • Players taken with draft picks traded away by Chiarelli will be included
  • Players Chiarelli traded away will be included
  • Buyouts will remain included
  • Players' current cap hits will be used

Chiarelli was hired by the Oilers on April 24, 2015. Here's a look at the Oilers if they essentially operated without a GM (excluding draft picks, re-signings) from that date forward (players in bold are not on the current Oilers roster):

Forwards

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LW C RW
Taylor Hall ($6M) Connor McDavid ($925K) Leon Draisaitl ($8.5M)
Nail Yakupov ($875K) Mathew Barzal ($863K) Jordan Eberle ($6M)
Anton Slepyshev ($925K) Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($6M) Jesse Puljujarvi ($925K)
Jujhar Khaira ($675K) Iiro Pakarinen ($725K)

Buyouts: Benoit Pouliot ($1.3M), Lauri Korpikoski ($1M).
Total Cap hit: $34.71 million.

Absences: Milan Lucic ($6M), Ryan Strome ($2.5M), Zack Kassian ($1.95M), Mark Letestu ($1.8M), Patrick Maroon ($1.5M), Mike Cammalleri ($1M), Drake Caggiula ($925K), Brad Malone ($650K).

In reality, a coach would probably split up Hall, McDavid, and Draisaitl, but the the possibility of that trio together likely has Oilers fans sick to their stomachs.

The second line is made up of three players not currently on the Oilers' roster. Eberle, of course, was traded for Strome. Yakupov, who is on pace for a career high in goals with the Avs, was dealt to the Blues for a third-round pick. Barzal, a potential rookie-of-the-year candidate, was the first-round draft pick used by the Isles in the trade that sent Griffin Reinhart to the Oilers. Yikes.

Defense

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LD RD
Oscar Klefbom ($4.167M) Justin Schultz ($5.5M)
Darnell Nurse ($863K)
Brandon Davidson ($1.425M)

Buyouts: None.
Total Cap hit: $11.95 million.

Absences: Andrej Sekera ($5.5M), Adam Larsson ($4.167M), Kris Russell ($4M), Matthew Benning ($925K), Eric Gryba ($900K), Yohann Auvitu ($700K).

It's possible Schultz - who was moved to Pittsburgh for a third-round pick - never would have flourished as a player if he never left Edmonton, but nonetheless, a defenseman with his offensive capabilities (51 points last year) would certainly be helpful on the Oilers' back end. Davidson was dealt for David Desharnais a year ago, but is nothing more than a bottom-pairing blue-liner at best.

Goaltenders

G
Laurent Brossoit ($750K)

Buyouts: None.
Total Cap hit: $750,000.

Absences: Cam Talbot ($4.167M).

While he hasn't played great this season, trading for Cam Talbot is arguably Chiarelli's best move as Edmonton's GM. Without him, they have a gaping hole in the crease.

Needs and flexibility

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Going three offseasons without making a trade or signing a free agent certainly leaves the alternate reality Oilers with many holes to fill. They could use a fourth-line center, depth on the wings, at least two defensemen, and a starting goaltender.

However, without signing Lucic to a seven-year, $42-million contract, Russell to a four-year, $16-million contract, and Sekera to a six-year, $33-million contract, the alternate reality Oilers have much more flexibility. With the roster listed above, they would currently have $27.59 million in cap space, compared to the $8.19 million in cap room the real Oilers have, per Cap Friendly.

Additionally, with Barzal in the fold and Draisaitl's ability to play center, the alternate reality Oilers could afford to trade Nugent-Hopkins and his $6-million cap hit to address the blue line, or the crease, and still have exceptional depth down the middle.

Building for the future

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Both the current Oilers and the alternate reality Oilers will be in a bind next season when McDavid's $12.5-million cap hit kicks in. However, the alternate reality Oilers seem much better suited to handle it.

Here is a list of free agents for each version of the team after this season:

Current Oilers Alternate Reality Oilers
Ryan Strome (RFA) Anton Slepyshev (RFA)
Mark Letestu (UFA) Nail Yakupov (RFA)
Patrick Maroon (UFA) Iiro Pakarinen (RFA)
Mike Cammalleri (UFA) Darnell Nurse (RFA)
Anton Slepyshev (RFA) Brandon Davidson (RFA)
Drake Caggiula (RFA) Laurent Brossoit (RFA)
Iiro Pakarinen (RFA)
Matthew Benning (RFA)
Darnell Nurse (RFA)
Yohann Auvitu (UFA)
Laurent Brossoit (RFA)

The current Oilers project to have $13 million in cap space next season with 14 players on the roster, and several RFAs due for pay raises.

The alternate reality Oilers project to have $20.65 million in cap space next season with 10 players on the roster, and a few less RFAs due for pay raises.

Both cap situations aren't pretty. The alternate reality Oilers may have to end up trading away both Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle to free up cap room, but with a stronger and younger core in place, they're better-suited to handle the inevitable cap crunch that comes with paying elite players like McDavid and Draisaitl top dollar.

Chiarelli handed out big contracts in free agency in an effort to improve the Oilers right away. It worked, as they made the playoffs a year ago, but as far as sustained success goes, the Oilers would be in a much better spot long term if he had shown more patience in building this team.

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