Through four games of the Stanley Cup Final, the Nashville Predators and Pittsburgh Penguins are square, but a few underlying numbers suggest the series might not be as close as it seems.
The Predators were able to even the series at two games with victories in Games 3 and 4, and while the Penguins took the first two contests, they haven't necessarily been the better team.
| Team | Corsi | SV% | SH% | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penguins | 44.41 | 92.38 | 11.25 | 103.6 |
| Predators | 55.59 | 88.75 | 7.62 | 96.4 |
(All statistics are at five-on-five and courtesy of Natural Stat Trick)
The numbers above suggest the Predators are controlling play against the Penguins, which is also apparent in the shooting numbers, which favor Nashville 123-91.
Meanwhile, the Predators' 96.4 PDO (shooting percentage plus team save percentage) suggests they're slightly underperforming, while the Penguins are actually playing above the norm. An average team's PDO should be at 100, and suggests how lucky or unlucky a team has been.
Here, the Predators should have more to give, whether it be a better shooting percentage or even better play from Pekka Rinne. Judging by how the last two games have gone in Nashville, one would expect that improvements in these two categories will drastically shift the series in the Predators' favor.
What might be more surprising is that in Games 1 and 2, the Predators had the advantage in Corsi (63.64 to the Penguins' 36.36), despite dropping both games by a combined 9-4 margin.
Sure, the series is tied 2-2, but unless the Penguins start making some adjustments, they're in danger of falling behind, and that's not a good thing with Game 6 looming back in Smashville.
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