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Here is a look at the Squad Up daily NHL fantasy picture for Thursday, March 2 (all advanced statistics courtesy of Corsica.Hockey and apply to 5v5 situations):
Dynamic Duos
- C John Tavares (72K) & LW Josh Bailey (41K), Islanders (at Stars): The Islanders have leaned extremely heavily on the top line of Tavares, Bailey and LW Anders Lee during their surge back into the playoff race. The trio played 24.52 percent of the 5v5 minutes in New York's most recent game. It's little wonder why, as the trio has a Corsi For rating of 56.88 percent in nearly 400 minutes together this season.
- C Kyle Turris (53K) & LW Mike Hoffman (68K), Senators (vs. Avalanche): Turris and Hoffman rank third and fourth among Senators skaters in points this season, with 44 and 41, respectively. Turris comes considerably cheaper than C Derick Brassard, despite leading the team with 22 goals, double the total of the team's No. 2 center.
- C Tomas Hertl (53K) & RW Joel Ward (34K), Sharks (vs. Canucks): Hertl represents one of the league's best third-line centers whenever separated from Cs Joe Pavelski and Joe Thornton. The trio of Hertl, Ward and RW Chris Tierney have a CF% of 57.41 in little over 30 minutes. They played just 15.42 percent of 5v5 minutes in San Jose's last game, but Hertl and Ward also see power-play TOI.
Goalie Breakdown
- TARGET - Frederik Andersen (88K), Maple Leafs (at Kings): Andersen concluded February with a .901 save percentage over 11 starts, allowing at least four goals in five of those games. He'll face a Kings team averaging 32.25 shots on goal per game but just 8.17 scoring chances. He'll have the potential to rack up an abundance of easy saves due to the Maple Leafs' porous defense.
- BARGAIN - Pekka Rinne (79K), Predators (at Canadiens): Back-to-back starts with four goals allowed have tempered Rinne's salary, even though the Predators' offense provided him with the win on both occasions. The Canadiens average just 26.61 shots on goal per game, and their trade deadline acquisitions have totaled a combined 14 goals this season.
- FADE - Martin Jones (116K), Sharks (vs. Canucks): Jones has allowed just one goal in each of his past two starts, but he still posted a .908 save percentage in February. The Canucks shoot slightly more than the Canadiens but also average more scoring chances and expected goals per 60. Even two goals allowed will limit his value at a high salary.
- CONTRARIAN - Michal Neuvirth (96K), Flyers (vs. Panthers): The Panthers' offense has been overachieving for quite some time, despite what is a great lineup on paper. They rank near the bottom of the league in scoring chances (6.45) and expected goals (2.16) per 60 minutes. They do average over 30 SOG per 60 minutes. It's risky, but ownership will be low.
Bargain Plays
- LW Adrian Kempe (25K), Kings (at Maple Leafs): Kempe projects to stick on the left side of C Anze Kopitar, with newcomer RW Jarome Iginla joining on the right side. Kempe has managed just two assists this season, but he has played at least 12 minutes in three consecutive games. He has started over 45 percent of his 5v5 shifts in the offensive zone this season.
- RW Tom Wilson (25K), Capitals (vs. Devils): Wilson had a two-game scoring streak snapped last time out, but he topped 19 minutes of ice time, as he, LW Alex Ovechkin and C Nicklas Backstrom played over 33 percent of all 5v5 minutes.
- D Cody Ceci (25K), Senators (vs. Avalanche): Ceci has just one goal and eight assists on the season, and he had just two assists in February. Still, he played at least 20 minutes in all but one game in the month. He's among Ottawa's worst defenders in Corsi For percentage, but he'll have plenty of ice time against an Avalanche team with one of the worst CF ratings in the league. He could finally respond to opportunity.
Top Fades
- D John Carlson (50K), Capitals (vs. Devils): While Carlson has been a reliable option for much of the season, fantasy owners should take a wait and see approach while the Capitals determine the best way to deploy he and D Kevin Shattenkirk.
- LW Taylor Hall (55K), Devils (at Capitals): It has rarely been worthwhile to pay up for an elite skater with a top-tier salary against the Capitals this season. While Hall has been a consistent producer of both real-world and fantasy points, he has his potential greatly reduced against G Braden Holtby.
- C Anze Kopitar (63K), Kings (vs. Maple Leafs): As noted above with Kempe, Kopitar retains a high potential, but while he is forced to carry two lesser wingers, owners should opt for the salary savings. Kopitar presents far too much risk, and his cheaper linemates will likely see some form of production if he does manage to have a big night.
Contrarian Options
- LW Evander Kane (48K), Sabres (vs. Coyotes): Kane loses much of his appeal by being dropped to the third line with C Zemgus Girgensons and RW Brian Gionta at 5v5. The new combination will allow for Kane to serve as the primary shot taker, and he will remain on the second power-play unit. There's little reason to fear him against the league's worst defense.
- C Sam Reinhart (49K), Sabres (vs. Coyotes): Following a brief stint apart, Reinhart will rejoin C Jack Eichel. Eichel will maintain the higher upside, but Reinhart will have an easier time returning value at his low salary.
- D Ryan Ellis (26K), Predators (at Canadiens): Ownership for Predators D P.K. Subban is likely to be sky-high tonight as he returns to Montreal. Ellis is a more consistent contributor of blocked shots and hits and logs similarly minutes. He has also notched three shots on goal in each of his past two games.
(Photo courtesy Action Images)
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