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A promising and exciting start to the 2016-17 NHL season quickly reverted to much of the boring, defensive play we saw last season. Scoring isn't just down through the league as a whole, but is down dramatically for some of the league's top-offensive talents. How should fantasy owners be reacting to the slow starts of some of their top draft picks?
LW Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators
With two assists in Tuesday night's game against the Colorado Avalanche, Forsberg is up to a respectable seven points through his first nine games. But he remains goalless to open the season, after potting 33 goals in 2015-16 and 26 the year prior. Most alarmingly, he is averaging just 1.78 shots on goal per game, down from 3.01 last season and 2.89 in 2014-15
Forsberg is averaging 19:21 in ice time, and was recently reunited with C Ryan Johansen and RW James Neal, whom he spent 73 minutes with at 5v5 last season en route to a Corsi For rating of 60.27. They averaged 9.84 scoring chances per 60 5v5 minutes. Forsberg has spent most of his 5v5 this season with Johansen and RW Kevin Fiala, with the three averaging 7.03 SCF60.
The Predators have received 33 power-play opportunities this season, and they've scored on 11 of those. Forsberg has three of his seven assists while playing 28.12 minutes at 5v4. He is on pace to match his 24 power-play points from last season.
The shockingly low shot count is reason for concern and could be the result of a fundamental change in Forsberg's game. Trade him only if top value can be had, but it is still early enough in the season for some owners to continue viewing him as a player likely to build on last year's success.
Verdict: SELL
D John Klingberg, Dallas Stars
Klingberg has just four assists through nine games, a year after totaling 10 goals and 48 assists in 76 games played. He averaged 2.25 SOG/G last season but has just 12 shots to open the 2016-17 season. Like Forsberg, his ice time has increased this year. He is averaging 23:33, including 3.94 minutes of power-play time per game.
His CF% is just 49.11 at 5v5, after posting a rate of 55.59 last season. Klingberg has been on the ice for 24 Stars scoring chances, the biggest and most obvious benefit of all his ice time.
With injuries affecting forwards Mattias Janmark, Cody Eakin, Patrick Sharp and Ales Hemsky to varying degrees, there should be and will be continue to be more shot opportunities for Klingberg, as he is forced into a larger role on offense. The slow start is certainly unexpected but with no help incoming for the Stars' offense, expect Klingberg to step up.
Verdict: BUY
C Nicklas Backstrom, Washington Capitals
A promising first game of the season from Backstrom in which he tallied five shots on goal prompted this article, claiming a breakout season on the goal front. Since the impressive season opener, Backstrom has registered more than two SOG in a game just once, when he recorded four in a 5-2 victory over the Vancouver Canucks.
Still, with an average of 2.0 SOG/G, Backstrom is ahead of his pace from the past two seasons. With a well-established career shooting percentage of 11.6 percent, Backstrom has totaled 165 goals in 661 career games.
He has been reunited with Ws Alex Ovechkin and Justin Williams on the Capitals' top line at 5v5; the original post focused on how operating on the second line would actually benefit his shot counts. Still, Backstrom has never totaled fewer than 18 goals in a full season since his 2007-08 rookie season.
Backstrom does have 21-career multi-goal games, needing no more than six SOG to achieve any of them. He will have more opportunities for rebound goals while playing with Ovechkin, and he remains the best bet in the NHL for upward of 25 power-play points.
Verdict: HOLD
D Dustin Byfuglien, Winnipeg Jets
Byfuglien has six assists through the opening 10 games - and unlike the other names featured above, he has been shooting the puck. He has 27 shots in 10 games, not substantially removed from his career pace of 3.04 SOG/G.
Byfuglien has posted the best CF% of this group, sitting at 53.45 through 10 games. He has been on the ice for 28 Jets scoring chances, while they've allowed 31 chances at 5v5 with him on.
The Jets' struggling power play has been a detriment thus far. They've had a league-high 44 opportunities, but they've converted just 11.4 percent of those chances. Byfuglien has played a total of 44.19 minutes at 5v4, but he has contributed just a lone power-play assist. He had at least 17 PP points in each of the past three seasons.
The injury to C Bryan Little affects the team as a whole, but it shouldn't be having much of an affect on Byfuglien. He plays on the top defense pairing at both 5v5 and the power play, which has him skating with the top forward trio centered by Mark Scheifele. His 28:50 in ice time is on pace for a career high.
Verdict: BUY
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