On the Fly, theScore's NHL roundtable series, will be published every Friday throughout the season. This week, we take a look at a few teams and players that are bound to regress after starting the season red-hot.
Trouble Looming in Vancouver
Hagerman: The Vancouver Canucks shouldn't get too acquainted with their current playoff spot because they likely won't remain in it for long.
The team got off to a questionable start to say the least, jumping out to a formidable 4-0-0 record, despite never holding a lead in regulation through the first three games. However, the team has begun to show their true colors as of late.
The Canucks have lost three straight, including a 3-0 shutout loss to the Ottawa Senators. And while they still sit second in the Pacific Division with nine points, a quick look at a few stats proves just how lucky the team has been.
| Goals per game (League Rank) | Shots per game (LR) | PP% (LR) | Corsi-for (LR) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 (30th) | 24.9 (30th) | 12.5% (23rd) | 45.2 (27th) |
Painful days are coming for the Canucks who are more likely to finish with a lottery position than a playoff spot.
The New Guy
McLaren: The Montreal Canadiens could not have asked for a better start to the season from Shea Weber.
Through eight games, he recorded three goals and six assists for nine points (tied for third in the NHL) with a league-high plus-12 rating, while averaging almost 26 minutes a night. The team as a whole, meanwhile, has yet to lose in regulation, posting a record of 7-0-1.
At some point, however, Weber's production is bound to level off.
At present, Weber is on pace for 35 goals and 105 points, which is clearly out of the realm of possibility considering the offensively gifted Erik Karlsson has never topped 82 points.
For his career, Weber is averaging 18 goals and 48 points per every 82 games, with a shooting percentage of 8.2.
Expect numbers closer to that range when all is said and done.
Wheelin' in Motor City
O'Leary: After beginning the season with two losses, the Detroit Red Wings have reeled off six consecutive wins, but all that glitters may not be gold in Mo Town.
In all but two of Detroit's eight games, they've been out-shot, and are toward the bottom of the league in several key possession stats. The Red Wings are 26th in the NHL in shots allowed per game (33.1), and are bottom-10 in even-strength Corsi-against (59.06), to go with a bottom-three rank in Corsi-for (47.76) per 60 minutes (corsica hockey).
Both Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard have been fantastic early on in goal, frequently bailing out a struggling defensive corps. Thomas Vanek's eight points have provided most of the offense, but Henrik Zetterberg has yet to score, and Dylan Larkin has only three points. A defensive overhaul and more offense balance are imperative if the Red Wings want to carry their postseason streak to 26 years.
Time to Panik?
Gold-Smith: Richard Panik has definitely fit in well on the Chicago Blackhawks' top line, benefiting as any player would from playing alongside Jonathan Toews, but there are several reasons to believe his early production is unsustainable.
He's in a four-way tie atop the NHL goal-scoring race with six goals in seven games, but they've come on only 11 shots. Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have the same number of goals in 30 and 23 shots on goal, respectively. There's simply no way Panik keeps scoring at a 54.5 percent clip.
The other factor is precedent. The 25-year-old has already equaled his six-goal, eight-point output from a season ago, but he's never put up more than 11 goals and 17 points in any of his four previous NHL campaigns. Panik is bound to post career highs and respectable numbers if he sticks on the top unit all season, but regression is inevitable.
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