Breaking down which wild card team has best odds to advance to second round in NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs
The Stanley Cup Playoffs are the most unpredictable in sports with constant upsets, thrilling come-from-behind wins and stellar individual performances. The unpredictability is something that every better looks to exploit heading into the playoffs as a Stanley Cup contender usually goes down early.
Since 2014, when the NHL switched to the Divisional setup instead of the one-through-eight conference ranking setup, a wild card team has managed to take down a one seed in seven of the last ten seasons with the 2019 postseason, featuring a rare sight where all one seeds were downed.
Wild Card History in First Round of Stanley Cup Playoffs:
- 2024 - All #1 Seeds Advance
- 2023 - WC1 Seattle Kraken beat #1 Colorado Avalanche, WC2 Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins
- 2022 - All #1 Seeds Advance
- 2021 - D4 Montreal Canadiens Beat #1 Toronto Maple Leafs, D4 New York Islanders beat #1 Pittsburgh Penguins
- 2020 - #7 Vancouver Canucks Beat #1 St. Louis Blues
- 2019 - All Four #1 Seeds lost
- 2018 - All #1 Seeds Advance
- 2017 - WC2 Nashville Predators Swept #1 Chicago Blackhawks, WC1 New York Rangers Beat #1 Montreal Canadiens
- 2016 - WC1 Nashville Predators Beat #1 Anaheim Ducks, WC1 New York Islanders Beat #1 Florida Panthers
- 2015 - WC1 Minnesota Wild Beat #1 St. Louis Blues
- 2014 - WC1 Minnesota Wild Beat #1 Colorado Avalanche
This means we should see one make it through to the next round this season with many wondering who it'll be?
The Senators have the highest odds to win in their first round series versus the Maple Leafs with +158 odds while the Blues and Wild are close behind with +184 and +190 odds respectively. Montreal is set up for a tough matchup against top seed in the east in Washington.
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The Capitals limped to the finish line this season with a 4-7-1 record and a 4.25 goals against average in their final 12 games.It's the least popular option but the Habs could catch the Capitals by surprise as they already secured a championship or sorts with Alex Ovechkin breaking the all-time goal record but the team has since won two of their last six games.
It may be a bubble bursting for the Caps as they worked hard to get their captain the record and celebrated like they won a championship afterwards. They may be having a hard time refocusing and the Habs could take advantage as they've also been slow but have been playing extremely hard to secure their spot in the postseason.
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I expect the Habs to push almost all of these games to the over as they've been red hot with a 15-5-6 record in their final 26 games. Montreal also got a massive momentum boost with the injection of rookie Ivan Demidov into the lineup.
The 19-year-old Russian superstar scored and dished for an assist in his NHL debut. His presence added even more life into a team that has a lot of potential with most of the team gaining experience from a run to the Stanley Cup Final back in 2021 during the Pandemic.
The Habs also have a much better history of playoff success with the Capitals having lost five straight first round matchups with their last win being their Stanley Cup Final win in 2019. I expect the Capitals being the ones to choke once again and you can get in on the Habs at a decent price tag with +106 odds to cover a series spread of +1.5 meaning they can win the series or lose in game seven.
I like the idea of adding the Habs series spread at +2.5 with -240 odds and parlaying it with the Carolina Hurricanes to down the New Jersey Devils in the first round at -280 odds. The Canes have won at least one playoff series in six straight seasons and when added with Montreal, gives us a very solid parlay with -109 odds.
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