The NHL's Stanley Cup playoffs are upon us, and we continue to predict how the first round will go.
On Thursday, we posted our picks to win the Western Conference’s four series. And today, this writer is predicting the winners of each Eastern Conference first-round matchup.
Every year, we say the same thing: this writer’s picks are our best guesses to emerge as first-round winners. However, we’re also going to examine which factors could go in the other team’s favor.
Now, here are our breakdowns for the NHL's four Eastern Conference series:
Washington Capitals (M1) Vs. Montreal Canadiens (WC2)
Season series: 2-1 Washington
Why Washington will win:The Capitals handily beat the Canadiens in their first two games, winning by a combined score of 10-5. There’s every reason to think they’ll eliminate the Habs from the post-season.
The Capitals have the NHL’s second-best offense, averaging 3.49 goals-for per game. That’s far and away better than Montreal’s 2.96.
On defense, Washington’s 2.79 goals against per game is also significantly better than Montreal’s 3.18 goals-against average. By virtually every metric, the Capitals are the better team, and on paper, at least, they should dispose of the Canadiens rather easily.
Why Montreal will win: Nobody expected the Canadiens to qualify for the post-season, so they’re playing with house money.
Montreal’s group of young, fast and skilled skaters very well may push Washington to its limit in Round 1. The Habs did beat the Capitals in their last showdown, and the Caps went 4-7-0 in their final 11 regular-season games, so Washington’s flaws may be exposed by Habs coach Martin St-Louis.
Canadiens goalie Sam Montembeault posted a .922 save percentage in April, and if he can stay hot, Montreal might frustrate the Capitals to the point a series upset becomes a reality.
Prediction: Capitals in seven games
The Canadiens went 7-1-2 in their final 10 games, so the notion they’re going to be steamrolled by the Capitals is far-fetched. However, Washington is extremely well-coached, and they’ve got a great goalie in Logan Thompson who will be the difference for them. We expect Montreal to put up a fierce fight and extend the series to a seventh game, but the Caps’ all-around depth will be enough to push them into Round 2.
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Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) Vs. Ottawa Senators (WC1)
Season series: 3-0 Ottawa
Why Toronto will win:The Senators swept the season series with the Maple Leafs, but after Ottawa’s last win over Toronto on March 15, the Leafs went 13-2-1 to finish the regular season atop the Atlantic Division.
The Leafs ended the year with the NHL’s seventh-best offense and the league’s eighth-best defense. The Sens had the NHL’s 18th-best offense and 13th-best defense.
Toronto’s defense is deeper and stronger than Ottawa’s, and while the Buds have their flaws, they have many lineup options if things don’t go well for them early. Coach Craig Berube is also a stellar motivator and tactician. Advantage(s): Toronto.
Why Ottawa will win: The Senators looked like the Leafs’ equal in their three regular-season games, and all the pressure in this series will be on Toronto.
Sens goalie Linus Ullmark was acquired last summer to give the Senators better performances in net, and with a .910 SP and 2.72 GAA in 44 appearances, Ullmark has delivered on that front.
The Sens’ young core will be getting the first taste of playoff hockey. If their stars, including Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle and Dylan Cozens, can provide enough offense, Ottawa can capitalize on Toronto’s penchant for playoff letdowns and shock the Maple Leafs into a first-round defeat.
Prediction: Maple Leafs in six games
The stakes for the Leafs couldn’t be higher, and it all starts with the incredible pressure of the Battle of Ontario. But while we think the Senators’ future is extremely bright, Toronto has never had a better back end than the one they’ve currently got, and Leafs stars Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Matthew Knies will be too much for the Sens to handle. It won’t be easy for Toronto, but we see a Leafs win in Round 1.
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Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) Vs. Florida Panthers (A3)
Season series: 2-2 tie
Why Tampa Bay will win:The Lightning and Panthers were notably different this season. Tampa Bay went a thoroughly mediocre 27-20-4 by Feb. 1, then went 20-7-4 the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Panthers went 40-21-3 by March 8 before going 7-10-1 through the end of the season.
The Bolts clearly have the momentum advantage, and Lightning GM Julien BriseBois has added tremendous depth. Tampa Bay has the better goalie in the series in Andrei Vasilevskiy, and so long as they stay healthy, the Bolts will be able to outlast Florida in a long and physically taxing series.
Why Florida will win: The Panthers have been a banged-up group, and they lost home-ice advantage to the Lightning. But Florida will get heart-and-soul left winger Matthew Tkachuk back, likely at the start of the series. Star defenseman Aaron Ekblad also will return in Game 3 of the series, giving the Panthers a far better defense corps than Tampa Bay’s group of blueliners.
Trade acquisition Brad Marchand can and will be a difference-maker and a true thorn in the Lightning’s side. For those reasons, Florida is every bit Tampa’s equal – and then some.
Prediction: Panthers in seven games
This series will be one of the most brutal of any first-round matchup, and there’s not going to be anywhere close to a sweep for either side. But we’ve got a hunch the Panthers will have slightly more skill, grit and determination to emerge as the victors here. The Lightning will put up a terrific fight, but one of these two teams will go home bitterly disappointed, and we’re confident that Florida will find a way to outlast Tampa Bay.
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is here.
Carolina Hurricanes (M2) Vs. New Jersey Devils (M3)
Season series: 2-2 tie
Why Carolina will win:The Hurricanes knew they’d be playing the Devils for weeks now, and Carolina tried to drastically improve its roster this year.
Once again, the Hurricanes’ defense corps is one of the NHL’s deepest and most balanced groups. Carolina is not lacking for speed and skill up front, either.
Their consistency stands out, as the Hurricanes have the NHL’s ninth-most goals-for per game, 10th-fewest goals against per game and the NHL's very best penalty kill. Carolina desperately needs a long playoff run. Against an injury-depleted Devils team, they’re likely to start on the right foot.
Why New Jersey will win: While no team that loses a superstar like Jack Hughes should be considered anything other than an underdog, New Jersey got back top D-man Dougie Hamilton, giving the Devils a competitive defense corps.
Given that few people will be picking New Jersey to win this series, the Devils will be playing freer and easier – and perhaps, do what many believe they can’t do by sending Carolina packing.
Prediction: Hurricanes in five games
Sorry, Devils fans, but without Hughes, New Jersey can’t compete with a well-coached, well-built Hurricanes squad. Carolina needs its goalies to deliver despite massive pressure on them, but the same can be said for New Jersey’s netminding. We don’t believe Devils goalie Jacob Markstrom can outperform Frederik Andersen and/or Pyotr Kochetkov. The Hurricanes may be eliminated in Round 2, but this series should go in the Hurricanes’ favor.
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