The first-round matchups are finalized for the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs. That means it’s time for the time-honored tradition of THN.com playoff predictions.
We begin with this writer’s picks for who wins each Western Conference first-round series. There's expected to be a lot of thrilling action and some bitter rivals punishing each other.
To hedge our bets, we’re also going to entertain the possibility that the teams we see as first-round losers might be able to win instead.
With that said, here are our guess-timates for the four Western Conference series:
Winnipeg Jets (C1) Vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2)
Season series: 3-1 Winnipeg
Why Winnipeg will win: As the NHL’s best regular-season team, the Jets were dominant from post-to-post this year, winning 55 games. They’ve also got an intimidating home record of 29-7-4 – and combined with the Blues’ mediocre road record of 20-16-5, it’s clear Winnipeg is the rightful favorite to win this series.
The Jets will face major changes if they flame out in the opening round, but they’ve got too much talent – especially in net, with Vezina Trophy front-runner Connor Hellebuyck leading the way – to be upset in the first round of this year’s post-season.
Why St. Louis will win: The Blues overcame a 25-26-6 record by going 19-4-2 the rest of the season – essentially playing must-win hockey for two months – so they’re now in peak form.
The Jets beat them 3-1 in their most recent showdown on April 7, but that was with backup goalie Joel Hoefer in net. The Blues will turn to starter Jordan Binnington to begin their first-round series. As we know, Binnington can live up to the moment, winning gold for Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off. He has a 2.69 goals-against average on the season and a 2.23 GAA after the 4 Nations pause.
St. Louis has the essentials to at least extend the series to six games – and from there, it could be either team’s series to win.
Prediction: Jets in six games
The Jets have an enormous amount of pressure on them, having lost both of their first-round showdowns in the last two seasons. But Winnipeg is as deep as they’ve ever been, and the Blues – in spite of their late-season hot streak – are considerably less talented in an all-around sense. It isn’t going to be a sweep for the Jets, but they should be able to send St. Louis home for the summer.
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Vegas Golden Knights (P1) Vs. Minnesota Wild (WC1)
Season series: 3-0 Vegas
Why Vegas will win:The Golden Knights handled Minnesota easily this season, outscoring the Wild 9-2 in their most recent two games.
Vegas’ underrated offense is superior to Minnesota’s. The Golden Knights rank fifth in the NHL at an average of 3.33 goals-for per game, compared to the Wild’s 25th-ranked offense at 2.74.
The Knights’ defense is also impressive, as it has the fourth-best defense at 2.62 goals against per game, compared to Minnesota’s 14th-best defense at 2.88.
The Golden Knights also have the NHL’s second-best power play at a 28.3 percent success rate, while the Wild ranked 20th in that regard. Both squads’ penalty kills rank in the bottom 10, but Vegas still has a higher kill rate.
By virtually any metric, the Golden Knights are better than the Wild, and that should be reflected with a Vegas series win.
Why Minnesota will win:The Wild have the best goalie in this series in Filip Gustavsson, who has a .914 save percentage, a 2.56 goals-against average and five shutouts this year. Contrast that with Vegas starter Adin Hill’s .906 SP and four shutouts, and you see where Minnesota may have the edge in net.
The Golden Knights went through a stretch from the first week of January through the beginning of February where they went 3-8-3, so they’re far from perfect.
The Wild also have Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek back in the lineup. Kaprizov missed more than two months of action, while Eriksson Ek missed over a month. Minnesota ranked eighth in the NHL before Kaprizov’s injury, so they have looked promising when everyone’s healthy.
Prediction: Golden Knights in five games
Full disclosure – we haven’t been big on the Wild for years now, and this season is no different. Minnesota might have the most dynamic player in this series with Kaprizov, but there’s a reason why the Wild haven’t won a playoff series since 2014-15 – they just don’t have enough high-end depth to run-and-gun with the league’s best teams. Vegas, on the other hand, is a proven Cup champion, so we expect the Knights to dispose of Minnesota in short order.
Dallas Stars (C2) Vs. Colorado Avalanche (C3)
Season series: 2-1 Colorado
Why Dallas will win:The Stars finished second in the highly competitive Central Division via a stunningly potent offense. They have the NHL’s third-most goals-for per game at 3.35.
Dallas’ defense also was no slouch, ranking sixth overall at 2.71 goals against per game. That’s better than the Avalanche in both categories – and imagine how much better Dallas would be if they had star right winger Mikko Rantanen all season long.
The Stars also have veteran Tyler Seguin back from injury, adding another terrific asset to their already formidable lineup. They’ve got all the components to go on a lengthy playoff run.
Why Colorado will win: The Stars won the first game against the Avalanche this season, but that was back on Nov. 29. In the two games that followed, the Avs took it to Dallas, beating them by a combined score of 10-6.
Colorado has added incredible depth, especially on the back end, with a defense corps that is now the envy of virtually every other NHL team. The presumed absence of star Dallas blueliner Miro Heiskanen, at least at the beginning of the first round, gives the Avalanche an advantage. Stars left winger Jason Robertson’s status is also uncertain after leaving the rink Wednesday nightwearing a knee brace.
So long as goalie Mackenzie Blackwood doesn’t fall apart, the Avs will push the Stars to their limit and end Dallas’ season prematurely.
Prediction: Avalanche in seven games
This is going to be the toughest first-round series this season, and the truth is it could go either way. That said, Colorado has the best player in the series in center Nathan MacKinnon and the best blueliner in the series in Cale Makar.
All other factors being equal, the Avalanche’s superstars will be the difference-makers, and the Avs will move on to the second round by beating the Stars in a hugely entertaining seventh game.
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Los Angeles Kings (P2) Vs. Edmonton Oilers (P3)
Season series: 3-1 Los Angeles
Why Los Angeles will win:The Kings are a team to reckon with this year, particularly at home, where they’re a league-best 31-5-4.
Los Angeles has thrived since the NHL’s trade deadline, going 17-4-0 since then. The Kings are doing it with the league’s second-best defense averaging 2.44 goals against and the seventh-best penalty kill, averaging 81.3 percent efficiency.
The Kings may not have a generational talent to rival the Oilers’ Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, but they have a well-balanced lineup and a patient game that can clamp down on Edmonton’s high-octane attack when it counts.
Why Edmonton will win: The Oilers got within one game of a Cup last season, and they have many familiar faces from that run. They’ll get a boost from the eventual return of left winger Evander Kane, and they’ve added depth in center Trent Frederic and defenseman Jake Walman.
Edmonton has a slightly better offense than the Kings, and L.A. has no one who can compare to McDavid and Draisaitl. If either or both of those two superstars impose their will on the series, there will be nothing the Kings can do about it. So long as the Oilers’ goaltending holds up, Edmonton can eliminate the Kings for the fourth straight season.
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Prediction: Kings in six games
Playoff series against L.A. have gone in Edmonton’s favor in the last three years, but this time will be different. It’s largely because L.A.’s goaltending is better than the Oilers’. Kings starter and Cup champion Darcy Kuemper has stats (2.02 GAA, .922 SP) better than those of Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner (.894 SP, 2.87 GAA).
Due to the Kings’ smothering defense, we see them shocking the Oilers and eliminating them before the series gets to a seventh game.
Share your predictions for each series in the comments.
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