The NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs are nearly here, and already, we know many of the first-round matchups we’ll be seeing.

In the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes will be taking on the New Jersey Devils. The Washington Capitals will be squaring off against the Montreal Canadiens or the Columbus Blue Jackets. And in the Western Conference, the Winnipeg Jets will be battling one of the St. Louis Blues, Minnesota Wild or Calgary Flames, and the Los Angeles Kings will be facing the Edmonton Oilers. To be sure, there will be no shortage of drama right out of the gate in the playoffs.

However, the first-round showdown we’re most interested in will be the Dallas Stars against the Colorado Avalanche. This will be the second time since 2019-20 that the Stars and Avs have faced each other in the post-season, with Dallas winning both series. But this time around, we believe the Avalanche have what it takes to beat the Stars and win their first-round series for the second season in a row. 

A lot of the Stars’ fortunes will depend on the status of star defenseman Miro Heiskanen, who hasn’t played since Jan. 28 due to a knee injury that required surgery. Dallas has gone 18-7-5 in Heiskanen’s absence, but Heiskanen could miss the entire first round, and being without a first-pair blueliner who can play 25 minutes a night could be devastating for the Stars’ playoff aspirations.

Given that Colorado has superstar D-man Cale Makar – the odds-on favorite to win this year’s Norris Trophy as the league’s top blueliner – not having Heiskanen to counterbalance Makar’s impact might be the difference that pushes the Avalanche to victory in the opening round.

Colorado has gone 2-1-0 against Dallas this season, with the Avs winning the two most recent games, including a 4-3 overtime win on March 16. And the Avalanche’s lone loss to the Stars this year came on Nov. 29, well before Colorado remade their goaltending tandem and altered much of their lineup.

But in the two Avalanche wins over Dallas, the Avs didn’t play No. 1 netminder Mackenzie Blackwood, going instead with backup Scott Wedgewood. So the Stars are going to get their first up-close look at Blackwood in Game 1 of their upcoming series, and the Stars’ lack of familiarity with Blackwood could play out to Colorado’s advantage.

Dallas does indeed have the edge in some significant team stats, with a slightly better goals-for average of 3.38 per game (compared to the Avs’ average of 3.32) and a better goals-against average of 2.64 (compared to Colorado’s average of 2.83).

However, the Avalanche have the better power play at 24.7 percent (compared to Dallas’ average of 22.8 percent). And given that special teams often matter greatly in the post-season, the Avs could benefit from their potent play with the man-advantage.

We’ll be offering our predictions for the entire first round once the series matchups are all confirmed. But for now, we’re going to say we like the Avalanche to narrowly beat out the Stars this time around.

Colorado’s lineup is stacked with first-rate talent, and Dallas’ lineup doesn’t have a shortage of skill, either. But we believe the Avs have the best player in the series in superstar center Nathan MacKinnon, and his determination to win is likely to push Colorado into the second round. 

And regardless of who wins, the Stars/Avalanche series is going to be one of the biggest blockbusters of the opening round – and the winner of the series could go on to win it all.

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